4th Round RBs (1 Viewer)

A lot of owners seem to be leaning towards RB, WR, WR in the first 3 rounds this year.

RBs that might be there in the 4th round include Pierre Thomas, Ryan Grant, Larry Johnson, Moreno, Thomas Jones, McFadden, R. Bush and possibly Kevin Smith.

For those of you doing mockdrafts, you've probably encountered this several times already.

So, who's the best pick of the 4th Round RBs??

Great topic - in the fourth round of a 12-team re-draft the fourth round is picks 37-48. Here's the latest update of ADP of RBs in that range...

33 Ryan Grant

35 Pierre Thomas

38 Marshawn Lynch

42 Reggie Bush

43 Darren McFadden

44 Thomas Jones

48 Knowshon Moreno

Depending on how preseason goes, I would take a long hard look at Moreno here. Grant is a solid pick too. If it were me, I'd choose one of those two. If PPR, Bush would be hard to ignore, but I don't have a good feeling about him this year. This is likely a RB2, maybe a RB3. I'm not sure if I would take a "?" with my RB2. If Thomas Jones played like he did last year, he's the obvious choice, but I think Shonn Greene and Leon Washington will eventually take away some of his carries. Who thought he'd have a 290-carry season last year? The guy is a horse.

Deuce said:

A lot of owners this year seem to be leaning towards RB, WR, WR this year.RBs that might be there in the 4th round include Pierre Thomas, Ryan Grant, Larry Johnson, Moreno, Thomas Jones, McFadden, R. Bush and possibly Kevin Smith. For those of you doing mockdrafts, you've probably encountered this several times already. So, who's the best pick of the 4th Round RBs??

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i like Kevin Smith with Linehan running the show. He should be getting tons of carries and pretty good number of receptions under Linehan's offense.

TaxMan said:

Deuce said:

A lot of owners this year seem to be leaning towards RB, WR, WR this year.RBs that might be there in the 4th round include Pierre Thomas, Ryan Grant, Larry Johnson, Moreno, Thomas Jones, McFadden, R. Bush and possibly Kevin Smith. For those of you doing mockdrafts, you've probably encountered this several times already. So, who's the best pick of the 4th Round RBs??

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i like Kevin Smith with Linehan running the show. He should be getting tons of carries and pretty good number of receptions under Linehan's offense.

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I like Kevin Smith too, but he is currently a mid-third round pick. If he is there in the 4th round, he would be tough to ignore too. This brings up the question - who do you like more this year, Kevin Smith or Ryan Grant? Green Bay's offense and apparent desire to run the ball more puts him slightly over Smith for me. I see good things for Grant this year, but that's me.

Of the RBs mentioned, I have Moreno ranked the highest, but also have the most reservations about him. I think the thing that bothers me the most about him is all the competition he has, and his new coaches history of using RBBC. I realize he was drafted high and that they will want to see what he has, but that scares me about him.

Of these guys, I guess only Grant and LJ would be the guys without RBBC and in line to get the most carries. Opportunity is there, but they are very sporadic performers.

Addai will also be there in the 4th, very intriguing pick, but for sure in RBBC with Brown.

At this point, my pick has to be either Pierre Thomas or Ryan Grant, based on playing on high powered offenses and getting a lot of scoring opportunities. Grant is a virtual lock for 1200 yds, but the TDs weren't there last year. Thomas will get his carries and probably a lot GL looks, and I love his upside.

Carry on....

Jeff Haseley said:

TaxMan said:

Deuce said:

A lot of owners this year seem to be leaning towards RB, WR, WR this year.RBs that might be there in the 4th round include Pierre Thomas, Ryan Grant, Larry Johnson, Moreno, Thomas Jones, McFadden, R. Bush and possibly Kevin Smith. For those of you doing mockdrafts, you've probably encountered this several times already. So, who's the best pick of the 4th Round RBs??

Click to expand...

i like Kevin Smith with Linehan running the show. He should be getting tons of carries and pretty good number of receptions under Linehan's offense.

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I like Kevin Smith too, but he is currently a mid-third round pick. If he is there in the 4th round, he would be tough to ignore too. This brings up the question - who do you like more this year, Kevin Smith or Ryan Grant? Green Bay's offense and apparent desire to run the ball more puts him slightly over Smith for me. I see good things for Grant this year, but that's me.

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Kevin Smith has the earliest ADP of any backs listed and would be a good pick. But, I think his success may hinge on the progress of Stafford. If he struggles I think defenses may crowd the line a bit. But he (Smith) did pretty well last year with not much threat through the air. One thing to consider about Detroit....they play a tough RUN schedule this year (25.5% tougher than last year according to SOS).

I recently did two WCOFF satellite leagues (PPR scoring - 12 team league). Here's the RB that went in the 3rd and 4th round

Draft #1

B. Jacobs (3.1)

R. Brown (3.3)

K. Smith (3.6)

R. Bush (3.7)

P. Thomas (3.8)

R. Grant (3.12)

D. Ward (4.5)

D. McFadden (4.6)

M. Lynch (4.7)

K. Moreno (4.8)

L. Johnson (4.10)

5th round - Addai, Jones, Benson, Stewart, Wells

Draft #2

R. Bush (3.1)

R. Brown (3.2)

B. Jacobs (3.3)

P. Thomas (3.6)

K. Smith (3.7)

D. McFadden (3.9)

K. Moreno (3.12)

M. Lynch (4.3)

R. Grant (4.5)

T. Jones (4.9)

L. Johnson (4.10)

D. Ward (4.11)

5th round - Addai, Wells, Benson, Parker

Latest mock I did had P. Thomas and R. Grant there for me at 4.04. I took Grant this time around. I'm starting to warm up to him and the fact that the Packers want to run more this year.

prgromek said:

I recently did two WCOFF satellite leagues (PPR scoring - 12 team league). Here's the RB that went in the 3rd and 4th roundDraft #1B. Jacobs (3.1)R. Brown (3.3)K. Smith (3.6)R. Bush (3.7)P. Thomas (3.8)R. Grant (3.12)D. Ward (4.5)D. McFadden (4.6)M. Lynch (4.7)K. Moreno (4.8)L. Johnson (4.10)5th round - Addai, Jones, Benson, Stewart, WellsDraft #2R. Bush (3.1)R. Brown (3.2)B. Jacobs (3.3)P. Thomas (3.6)K. Smith (3.7)D. McFadden (3.9)K. Moreno (3.12)M. Lynch (4.3)R. Grant (4.5)T. Jones (4.9)L. Johnson (4.10)D. Ward (4.11)5th round - Addai, Wells, Benson, Parker

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That's what I like to see

Fast Willie is going to be a steal.

This is good stuff, especially since it seems the shark move in 2009 is to go RB/WR/WR or WR/WR/RB depending on who is on the board

RookieBlitz said:

This is good stuff, especially since it seems the shark move in 2009 is to go RB/WR/WR or WR/WR/RB depending on who is on the board

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In the first draft above, I went WR-WR-RB-RB-RB-RB with the #6 pick and ended up with Andre Johnson, Roddy White, Kevin Smith, Marshawn Lynch (I was planning to get F. Jackson but someone sniped him pretty early). I ended up getting Jonathan Stewart and Donald Brown in Rds 5-6.In the second draft, I had the #2 pick and went RB-WR-RB-RB-WR. I ended up with Adrian Peterson, Roddy White, Ronnie Brown, Derrick Ward, Eddie Royal. Not bad.With a late first-round pick, I like RB-WR-WR-RB. Personally, I would target Slaton or Gore late in the first round. You could end up with something like Gore/Calvin Johnson/Colston/Lynch.I can also see going WR-WR-RB-RB late in the first round, although taking 2 WRs early almost forces you to grab RBs with your next two picks instead of just grabbing value that slips. You could end up with something like AJ/CJ/Grant/Lynch.If you like to take on a lot of risk and feel confident that you can identify the right sleeper RBs, I've done mocks where I went WR-WR-WR-TE-RB-RB-RB late in the first round and ended up with AJ/CJ/Colston/Witten/Rice/Felix Jones/Julius Jones/MendenhallEarly in the first round I like RB-WR-RB-WR-WR. You could end up with something like MJD/R White/R Brown/B Edwards/ E Royal

Jeff Haseley said:

Great topic - in the fourth round of a 12-team re-draft the fourth round is picks 37-48. Here's the latest update of ADP of RBs in that range...33 Ryan Grant35 Pierre Thomas38 Marshawn Lynch42 Reggie Bush43 Darren McFadden44 Thomas Jones48 Knowshon MorenoDepending on how preseason goes, I would take a long hard look at Moreno here. Grant is a solid pick too. If it were me, I'd choose one of those two. If PPR, Bush would be hard to ignore, but I don't have a good feeling about him this year. This is likely a RB2, maybe a RB3. I'm not sure if I would take a "?" with my RB2. If Thomas Jones played like he did last year, he's the obvious choice, but I think Shonn Greene and Leon Washington will eventually take away some of his carries. Who thought he'd have a 290-carry season last year? The guy is a horse.

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There is no way all of those guys are avail in the 4th in any respectable 12-team league. I can tell you right not that Bush and Lynch will be long gone in my PPR by the middle of the 3rd (at the absolute latest). I think it's too early to look at ADPs, and when the preseason comes around I suspect Lynch, Bush (and most likely Grant and Moreno too) to pop at least into the 3rd round.

I agree that Addai and Lynch will probably see their ADPs rise as we get closer to the season.

Addai and Fast Willie seem to be slipping pretty far in early drafts. One option I've been considering is to grab Addai or Willie P. in the 5th and then pair them with Brown or Mendenhall in the 6th or 7th to lock up either the Pittsburgh or Indy rushing attack and hope one guy emerges

Ray Rice deserves mention and his stock is rising, disagree with the above poster about going WR/WR with a late 1st/early 2nd forces you to go RB in rounds 3/4. You can still get Benson, Rice, and others who aren't that much of a downgrade to these guys for much cheaper later on...not to mention going 3 WR's early, almost makes everyone else target WR's in a start 3/4 league as a shortage is created

I do think Parker is a steal. Not sure where Mendy's ADP is, and I guess the problem is trying to figure who is better handcuff MeMo or Mendy?

Jeff Haseley said:

Great topic - in the fourth round of a 12-team re-draft the fourth round is picks 37-48. Here's the latest update of ADP of RBs in that range...

33 Ryan Grant

35 Pierre Thomas

38 Marshawn Lynch

42 Reggie Bush

43 Darren McFadden

44 Thomas Jones

48 Knowshon Moreno

Depending on how preseason goes, I would take a long hard look at Moreno here. Grant is a solid pick too. If it were me, I'd choose one of those two. If PPR, Bush would be hard to ignore, but I don't have a good feeling about him this year. This is likely a RB2, maybe a RB3. I'm not sure if I would take a "?" with my RB2.

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Ah, but does Moreno really have fewer questions than Bush? I actually think this is the year to take a '?' at RB2. It seems like RB is deeper, you can acquire parts of RBBC, and rookies pretty cheap, later. Bush might miss some time, but when he IS healthy, you get top 10 player production. Personally, I think that ADP goes up, especially for PPR. That seems low to me.

Of the players mentioned in that list, I like Grant and McFadden best. Although, I don't see Ryan Grant lasting until the fourth in that many drafts. Hell, he may not last much past the late 2nd/early third.

McFadden will likely be heavily involved in the short passing game if he can remain healthy. Even if his carries don't go up a good deal from last year(which I expect they will, again, health permitting) his receiving yardage may make him a viable #2 anyway. Getting the Chiefs and Broncos defenses twice doesn't hurt the cause either.

As for Grant, if he were to make it to round 4, he's a no-brainer. He really doesn't appear to have any real competition for legitimate carries. Sure, Jackson should spell him and get the work on 3rd down, but he doesn't look like any threat to unseat Grant as a starter. Grant's sorta "boring", but he's also reasonably productive. Which is precisely why I think he's off the board by the end of the mid-third at the absolute latest. Too few questions him to hang around longer than that.

As an aside, both have handcuffs that are coming EXTREMELY cheap in mocks I've been running/looking at the past month too, if you're into that. Mike Bush/Fargas are typically going in the 12th-14th round in the 20 rounders I've ran. It's probably an equal split on which one goes first. Sometimes both aren't being taken until round 15 or beyond. In a lot of these mocks, Brandon Jackson isn't coming off the board until the final round, if he's even being drafted at all.

I want to buy into Moreno in that area, I really do, since I love the player, but I think his coach has been going to great lengths to show us he has a colon where his brain should be...and that worries me. Too many servicable backs on the roster for me to feel that his HC will totally eschew his Patriot leanings when it comes to RBBC. I'll believe it when I see it.

loose circuits said:

Ray Rice deserves mention and his stock is rising, disagree with the above poster about going WR/WR with a late 1st/early 2nd forces you to go RB in rounds 3/4. You can still get Benson, Rice, and others who aren't that much of a downgrade to these guys for much cheaper later on...not to mention going 3 WR's early, almost makes everyone else target WR's in a start 3/4 league as a shortage is created

I do think Parker is a steal. Not sure where Mendy's ADP is, and I guess the problem is trying to figure who is better handcuff MeMo or Mendy?

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Yeah, I can see how going WR-WR-WR in a league that starts 3-4 WRs could be a viable strategy. There really does seem to be a big drop-off after the top 15-20 WRs this year. It's all about how much risk you're willing to assume at the RB position, although as you say, are Benson, Rice, Felix Jones, etc. that much more risky than most of the Rnds 2-4 RB2s?

Jeff Haseley said:

Great topic - in the fourth round of a 12-team re-draft the fourth round is picks 37-48. Here's the latest update of ADP of RBs in that range...33 Ryan Grant35 Pierre Thomas38 Marshawn Lynch42 Reggie Bush43 Darren McFadden44 Thomas Jones48 Knowshon MorenoDepending on how preseason goes, I would take a long hard look at Moreno here. Grant is a solid pick too. If it were me, I'd choose one of those two. If PPR, Bush would be hard to ignore, but I don't have a good feeling about him this year. This is likely a RB2, maybe a RB3. I'm not sure if I would take a "?" with my RB2. If Thomas Jones played like he did last year, he's the obvious choice, but I think Shonn Greene and Leon Washington will eventually take away some of his carries. Who thought he'd have a 290-carry season last year? The guy is a horse.

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Does anyone have auction values for any of these guys?

prgromek said:

loose circuits said:

Ray Rice deserves mention and his stock is rising, disagree with the above poster about going WR/WR with a late 1st/early 2nd forces you to go RB in rounds 3/4. You can still get Benson, Rice, and others who aren't that much of a downgrade to these guys for much cheaper later on...not to mention going 3 WR's early, almost makes everyone else target WR's in a start 3/4 league as a shortage is created

I do think Parker is a steal. Not sure where Mendy's ADP is, and I guess the problem is trying to figure who is better handcuff MeMo or Mendy?

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Yeah, I can see how going WR-WR-WR in a league that starts 3-4 WRs could be a viable strategy. There really does seem to be a big drop-off after the top 15-20 WRs this year. It's all about how much risk you're willing to assume at the RB position, although as you say, are Benson, Rice, Felix Jones, etc. that much more risky than most of the Rnds 2-4 RB2s?

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This is the main reason why I love WRs in the 2nd and 3rd this year. Each mock I do, I try to look what RBs are available in the late 2nd/early 3rd, and the value there just doesn't seem to outweigh guys you can get in the 4th or even 5th rounds. Occasionally, I see a guy like Ronnie Brown, Jacobs or Westbrook fall to the late 2nd, but it's VERY rare and I question the quality of mockers. Really, if you're talking about a 12 team league, of the first 24 picks about 15-18 of them will probably be running backs, and of the remaining 6-9 players, you probably lose 2-3 Qbs (Brees, Brady, Manning) and 4-6 Wrs (Fitz, Moss, A.J., CJ4 and Jennings). I think WR 5 (Wayne, Jennings or S. Smith) is a much better pick in the late 2nd/early 3rd then RB19. Add to that the fact that guys like Parker, T. Jones, LJ, and Grant might be there in the 4th or 5th (guys who have performed in the past) and I think you're looking at a winning formula.

I wrote that up quick (at work) so it may be a little flawed with the numbers, but you get what I'm saying.

But, the topic is all about WHO of these guys would you take. It's debatable who will or won't be there, but if we assume current ADPs, we can get a generalized feel about it.

Deuce said:

prgromek said:

loose circuits said:

Ray Rice deserves mention and his stock is rising, disagree with the above poster about going WR/WR with a late 1st/early 2nd forces you to go RB in rounds 3/4. You can still get Benson, Rice, and others who aren't that much of a downgrade to these guys for much cheaper later on...not to mention going 3 WR's early, almost makes everyone else target WR's in a start 3/4 league as a shortage is created

I do think Parker is a steal. Not sure where Mendy's ADP is, and I guess the problem is trying to figure who is better handcuff MeMo or Mendy?

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Yeah, I can see how going WR-WR-WR in a league that starts 3-4 WRs could be a viable strategy. There really does seem to be a big drop-off after the top 15-20 WRs this year. It's all about how much risk you're willing to assume at the RB position, although as you say, are Benson, Rice, Felix Jones, etc. that much more risky than most of the Rnds 2-4 RB2s?

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This is the main reason why I love WRs in the 2nd and 3rd this year. Each mock I do, I try to look what RBs are available in the late 2nd/early 3rd, and the value there just doesn't seem to outweigh guys you can get in the 4th or even 5th rounds. Occasionally, I see a guy like Ronnie Brown, Jacobs or Westbrook fall to the late 2nd, but it's VERY rare and I question the quality of mockers. Really, if you're talking about a 12 team league, of the first 24 picks about 15-18 of them will probably be running backs, and of the remaining 6-9 players, you probably lose 2-3 Qbs (Brees, Brady, Manning) and 4-6 Wrs (Fitz, Moss, A.J., CJ4 and Jennings). I think WR 5 (Wayne, Jennings or S. Smith) is a much better pick in the late 2nd/early 3rd then RB19. Add to that the fact that guys like Parker, T. Jones, LJ, and Grant might be there in the 4th or 5th (guys who have performed in the past) and I think you're looking at a winning formula.

I wrote that up quick (at work) so it may be a little flawed with the numbers, but you get what I'm saying.

But, the topic is all about WHO of these guys would you take. It's debatable who will or won't be there, but if we assume current ADPs, we can get a generalized feel about it.

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Well, from what I can tell, if you're in the top 5 or 6 it makes sense to grab a RB, but after that, going WR, WR is looking attractive because the difference between the #7 RB and the #12 RB is not huge this year. I'm seeing this strategy work nicely in a fair # of Mocks I have seen. Especially if you pick out of the #9 or #10 spot of a 10 team league.