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Player Spotlight: Donald Brown (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Donald Brown, RB, Indianapolis Colts

Player Page Link: Donald Brown Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
His value is directly tied to Addai's lack of toughness and whether he picks up pass blocking or not. Given where he's been going in the mocks I've seen I won't be drafting him.

 
I think Addai is more talented than Brown, and I don't see Brown making much of an impact this year. I expect Addai to get 70% of the RB touches, with the remainder split between Hart and Brown. assuming Addai plays 16 games, I see Brown along the lines of:

65/280/1

 
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Anonymous Internet User said:
I think Addai is more talented than Brown, and I don't see Brown making much of an impact this year. I expect Addai to get 70% of the RB touches, with the remainder split between Hart and Brown. assuming Addai plays 16 games, I see Brown along the lines of:65/280/1
Click to expand...
If Brown doesn't get 300 yards rushing this season I'll be SHOCKED. Hart is clearly the #3 back at best - and that assumes he fully recovers from injury. You don't draft a RB in round 1 so that he can split time with Mike Hart - that would be poor management by the Colts. I expect Brown to get 35 to 40% of the carries this season, with a highish YPC. Probably won't get enough TDs to draft very high except to target both Addai and Brown and "hope" one takes over.I'll say 180/790/4 - with about 20 receptions for 160 yards.
 
one Addai injury away from being the #1 RB for one of the best offensive teams in the NFL. :thumbup:

that means he's worth a lot..

obviously, he has more value in dynasty leagues than this year alone..

Colts have avg'd 429 carries over the past three seasons, and that includes last year's 30th ranked rushing offense that attempted only 370 carries..

I think they're going to run the ball closer to 480 times this season as they try to get a more balanced attack..the offense will likely change a bit now that Tom Moore has retired..

Addai and Brown will likely have a 50/50% split over the majority of the workload, while Hart picks up the scraps and churns out about 50 carries himself..that leaves about 430 carries for Brown and Addai

Brown , 215/924/6td 4.3 avg.

Addai won't play a full 16-game schedule, he's as fragile as they come and is almost guaranteed to miss some playing time dealing with various nagging injuries. I wouldn't project Brown so highly if not for the fact that Bill Polian selected him in the first round at #27 - while Beanie Wells was still available... tells you just how much the Colts liked Brown. :thumbup:

maybe I'm just too optimistic about Brown, but I really see no way in which Addai plays in all 16 games..

he's nothing more than an average RB at this point..and his YPC avg has steadily significantly dropped in each year since turning pro, from 4.8 in 2006, to 4.1 in 2007, to 3.5 last season..he's lost 1.3 yards per carry in just 3 seasons.. :eek: that's dreadful

 
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I really need to do a breakdown of the Colts running game for my own projects this season, and haven't gotten to it yet.

That said, my guess would be about 440-450 rushes, as they had in '06 & '07. In both those seasons, Addai had 230-260 carries. I don't see that number falling off, but I do see it closer to 230 than to 260. That leaves IMO 120-140 carries for Brown, and the rest split between Mike Hart, Manning, etc.

130 carries, 546 yards, 3 TDs, 22 rec, 165 yards, 1 TD

People forget that in '07 the OL was a disaster, and in '08 Addai's ankle was messed up all season long. For a guy so "injury prone" last season was the only time he's missed extended time, and he only missed 1 game in '07. Missing 5 games in three years isn't that much, when 80% of that was in one season. Through the first 24 games of his career, Addai managed a 4.8 YPC, then his OL went down, then he got hurt. If he's healthy, and having his carries limited to the mid 200s should keep him healthy, I can't see Brown outperforming him. Addai was drafted to start, Brown was drafted to complement.

 
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switz said:
I really need to do a breakdown of the Colts running game for my own projects this season, and haven't gotten to it yet.

That said, my guess would be about 440-450 rushes, as they had in '06 & '07. In both those seasons, Addai had 230-260 carries. I don't see that number falling off, but I do see it closer to 230 than to 260. That leaves IMO 120-140 carries for Brown, and the rest split between Mike Hart, Manning, etc.

130 carries, 546 yards, 3 TDs, 22 rec, 165 yards, 1 TD

People forget that in '07 the OL was a disaster, and in '08 Addai's ankle was messed up all season long. For a guy so "injury prone" last season was the only time he's missed extended time, and he only missed 1 game in '07. Missing 5 games in three years isn't that much, when 80% of that was in one season. Through the first 24 games of his career, Addai managed a 4.8 YPC, then his OL went down, then he got hurt. If he's healthy, and having his carries limited to the mid 200s should keep him healthy, I can't see Brown outperforming him. Addai was drafted to start, Brown was drafted to complement.
Click to expand...
:confused:
 
To me its not the overall season stats that matter as much as when he gets them. Brown could be a player that wins championships by starting the last 6 weeks of the season. I see him having- 700 rushing, 30 catches 240yds 8 total TDs. But I think most of that will come at the end of the season so that makes him a starter then.

 
switz said:
I really need to do a breakdown of the Colts running game for my own projects this season, and haven't gotten to it yet.That said, my guess would be about 440-450 rushes, as they had in '06 & '07. In both those seasons, Addai had 230-260 carries. I don't see that number falling off, but I do see it closer to 230 than to 260. That leaves IMO 120-140 carries for Brown, and the rest split between Mike Hart, Manning, etc.130 carries, 546 yards, 3 TDs, 22 rec, 165 yards, 1 TDPeople forget that in '07 the OL was a disaster, and in '08 Addai's ankle was messed up all season long. For a guy so "injury prone" last season was the only time he's missed extended time, and he only missed 1 game in '07. Missing 5 games in three years isn't that much, when 80% of that was in one season. Through the first 24 games of his career, Addai managed a 4.8 YPC, then his OL went down, then he got hurt. If he's healthy, and having his carries limited to the mid 200s should keep him healthy, I can't see Brown outperforming him. Addai was drafted to start, Brown was drafted to complement.
Click to expand...
POlien drafting him in the first round was to compliment Addai??? This does not make sense. Re-read what you wrote. You will admit if you think about it.
 
Adrian Peterson, Rashard Mendenhall, Jonathan Stewart, Chris Johnson, Felix Jones, Steven Jackson, etc. etc. All first round RBs drafted by teams that, at the time, had solid #1 options. Save for Chris Johnson, who had only the pitiful LenDale White to beat out, all of those guys spent at least one year playing second fiddle before assuming the role (if they ever did/will).

Even if Addai falls off a cliff, the chances of Brown stepping in and setting the world on fire are slim. He's going to be groomed, and in the BCS for the Colts, he's primed to take over the job just when Addai has outlived his usefulness (or his contract).

Other than very late in drafts, or maybe in dynasty leagues, I wouldn't bother with this guy. In fact, I consider his presence to make a decent sleeper out of Addai.

 
I heard an interview with Polian on NFL Radio a month or so ago stating that Brown was drafted to be used in a committee of sorts with Addai, much like when Addai was brought in to share time with Rhodes (paraphrasing).

Based on that, I am assuming Addai is the starter, but that both will play significant roles, assuming both are reasonably productive. I don't think it can be safely assumed that Addai's role will be way larger than Brown's this season, it might end up being closer to 50-50, but this will all depend upon how Brown picks up the nuances of the NFL game.

 
Donald Brown should provide owners with an undervalued RB3 type of player. He proved he could carry a heavy workload in college at UConn and led the nation in rushing. He's in a perfect situation now in Indy with a powerful offense that plays on turf and playing alongside last year's MVP. I think people may be looking too much into the fact that Addai gets hurt. How can anyone predict injuries anyways? Instead I would look at how the Colts will use Addai and Brown on the field. This will clearly be a time sharing back field, and I firmly believe it will be something close to a 50-50 split. That way they can keep both Addai and DBrown fresh. Addai AND Brown are both too talented in my opinion to keep off the field. Here is my shot at how I think the carries, yards, and TDs may break down at years end.

Addai - 200 carries, 800 yards, 7 TDs

Brown - 180 carries, 800 yards, 7 TDs

Brown provide value to me b/c he's proven he can carry a full workload in college. In most drafts, people also will be drafting Addai ahead of Brown. Again, this is a situation where I see a split of carries and they will even out at the end of the year. That is unless Addai goes down with an injury. Then I believe Brown's value skyrockets.

 
mlball77 said:
I heard an interview with Polian on NFL Radio a month or so ago stating that Brown was drafted to be used in a committee of sorts with Addai, much like when Addai was brought in to share time with Rhodes (paraphrasing).
Click to expand...
Of course he said that. It's not like he's going to say he hopes Brown will take the starting job. That would piss off Addai. I'm betting this could end up a lot like the Hightower/Edge situation last year. Depends how Brown plays, though.
 
Sounds like they're both going too early for what looks to be a crap shoot. Maybe we'll find out more in the preseason, but at this point I'm not touching either of the Indy backs.

 
I see Brown starting by mid-season and Addia being the 3rd down back.

Brown is much more talented then Addia

Numbers are hard to call,(depends when he takes over the majority of the work) about 1000 yards rushing, 8 rush td, 400 rec with 2 tds

Brown will be what C. Johnson was last year

 
Tanner9919 said:
Colts have avg'd 429 carries over the past three seasons, and that includes last year's 30th ranked rushing offense that attempted only 370 carries..I think they're going to run the ball closer to 480 times this season as they try to get a more balanced attack..the offense will likely change a bit now that Tom Moore has retired..Addai and Brown will likely have a 50/50% split over the majority of the workload, while Hart picks up the scraps and churns out about 50 carries himself..that leaves about 430 carries for Brown and Addai
Click to expand...
Perhaps they will change the offense significantly, though that would surprise me with Manning still their best player. DataDominator goes back to 2002. Since then, only 4 teams have reached 480 RB carries. The Colts' total RB carries in those seasons ranged between 345 (last year) and 420. They averaged about 417 RB carries from 2005 to 2007 before last year's unusually low total, so it seems reasonable that they will be back around that number.Note: DD shows only 330 RB carries for IND last year, but PFR shows 345. Not sure if the other totals are similarly off, for IND and/or the rest of the teams from 2002 to 2008.Anyway, projecting 480 RB carries seems excessive. IMO 415-420 is reasonable.
 
mlball77 said:
I heard an interview with Polian on NFL Radio a month or so ago stating that Brown was drafted to be used in a committee of sorts with Addai, much like when Addai was brought in to share time with Rhodes (paraphrasing).

Based on that, I am assuming Addai is the starter, but that both will play significant roles, assuming both are reasonably productive. I don't think it can be safely assumed that Addai's role will be way larger than Brown's this season, it might end up being closer to 50-50, but this will all depend upon how Brown picks up the nuances of the NFL game.
Click to expand...
If that is the case we should be looking at something similar to:Donald Brown - Rushing 226/1081/7 Receiving 40/325/1

Joseph Addai - Rushing 187/641/5 Receiving 36/251

With Addai being the "starter" every game and then being cut after the season is over. As a Donald owner, :thumbup:

 
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VTjkru said:
mlball77 said:
I heard an interview with Polian on NFL Radio a month or so ago stating that Brown was drafted to be used in a committee of sorts with Addai, much like when Addai was brought in to share time with Rhodes (paraphrasing).

Based on that, I am assuming Addai is the starter, but that both will play significant roles, assuming both are reasonably productive. I don't think it can be safely assumed that Addai's role will be way larger than Brown's this season, it might end up being closer to 50-50, but this will all depend upon how Brown picks up the nuances of the NFL game.
Click to expand...
If that is the case we should be looking at something similar to:Donald Brown - Rushing 226/1081/7 Receiving 40/325/1

Joseph Addai - Rushing 187/641/5 Receiving 36/251

With Addai being the "starter" every game and then being cut after the season is over. As a Donald owner, :thumbup:
Click to expand...
Whole lot of faith placed in a guy that has never picked up a blitzing LB in the NFL. Notice I didn't say, play a down or carry the ball. The star of this team, the face of the franchise, is Peyton Manning. Addai can pass block. We don't know if Brown can block. Brown could have a 6.0 YPC but if he can't pass block his butt is going to be on the bench. I don't care where they picked the guy if he can't pass block he will not see the field.That being said, if Addai is injured they may have to risk Manning's health and platoon him with Hart. This guy is a very hard guy to predict.

Does anyone know about his pass blocking skills in college?

 
TheFanatic said:
VTjkru said:
mlball77 said:
I heard an interview with Polian on NFL Radio a month or so ago stating that Brown was drafted to be used in a committee of sorts with Addai, much like when Addai was brought in to share time with Rhodes (paraphrasing).

Based on that, I am assuming Addai is the starter, but that both will play significant roles, assuming both are reasonably productive. I don't think it can be safely assumed that Addai's role will be way larger than Brown's this season, it might end up being closer to 50-50, but this will all depend upon how Brown picks up the nuances of the NFL game.
Click to expand...
If that is the case we should be looking at something similar to:Donald Brown - Rushing 226/1081/7 Receiving 40/325/1

Joseph Addai - Rushing 187/641/5 Receiving 36/251

With Addai being the "starter" every game and then being cut after the season is over. As a Donald owner, :thumbup:
Click to expand...
Whole lot of faith placed in a guy that has never picked up a blitzing LB in the NFL. Notice I didn't say, play a down or carry the ball. The star of this team, the face of the franchise, is Peyton Manning. Addai can pass block. We don't know if Brown can block. Brown could have a 6.0 YPC but if he can't pass block his butt is going to be on the bench. I don't care where they picked the guy if he can't pass block he will not see the field.That being said, if Addai is injured they may have to risk Manning's health and platoon him with Hart. This guy is a very hard guy to predict.

Does anyone know about his pass blocking skills in college?
Click to expand...
UConn homer here - kind of a tough question, because UConn threw so infrequently. But Brown rarely left the field, and is a back who does not have many liabilities in his game. He is tenacious in his preparation and I have no doubt that if pass blocking keeps him on the field longer, than he will no doubt work his a** off to remove any doubt.
 
kneeshooter said:
TheFanatic said:
VTjkru said:
mlball77 said:
I heard an interview with Polian on NFL Radio a month or so ago stating that Brown was drafted to be used in a committee of sorts with Addai, much like when Addai was brought in to share time with Rhodes (paraphrasing).

Based on that, I am assuming Addai is the starter, but that both will play significant roles, assuming both are reasonably productive. I don't think it can be safely assumed that Addai's role will be way larger than Brown's this season, it might end up being closer to 50-50, but this will all depend upon how Brown picks up the nuances of the NFL game.
Click to expand...
If that is the case we should be looking at something similar to:Donald Brown - Rushing 226/1081/7 Receiving 40/325/1

Joseph Addai - Rushing 187/641/5 Receiving 36/251

With Addai being the "starter" every game and then being cut after the season is over. As a Donald owner, :thumbup:
Click to expand...
Whole lot of faith placed in a guy that has never picked up a blitzing LB in the NFL. Notice I didn't say, play a down or carry the ball. The star of this team, the face of the franchise, is Peyton Manning. Addai can pass block. We don't know if Brown can block. Brown could have a 6.0 YPC but if he can't pass block his butt is going to be on the bench. I don't care where they picked the guy if he can't pass block he will not see the field.That being said, if Addai is injured they may have to risk Manning's health and platoon him with Hart. This guy is a very hard guy to predict.

Does anyone know about his pass blocking skills in college?
Click to expand...
UConn homer here - kind of a tough question, because UConn threw so infrequently. But Brown rarely left the field, and is a back who does not have many liabilities in his game. He is tenacious in his preparation and I have no doubt that if pass blocking keeps him on the field longer, than he will no doubt work his a** off to remove any doubt.
Click to expand...
I seem to remember someone saying he didn't pass block much in college but he was a hard worker. I doubt the Colts choose someone in the first round if they do not believe that he can learn to block. That being said, he still needs to do so and then outperform a guy who has had one bad season due to injury to himself and Saturday, both of whom seem healthy now. That's a steep hill to climb..
 
TheFanatic said:
VTjkru said:
mlball77 said:
I heard an interview with Polian on NFL Radio a month or so ago stating that Brown was drafted to be used in a committee of sorts with Addai, much like when Addai was brought in to share time with Rhodes (paraphrasing).

Based on that, I am assuming Addai is the starter, but that both will play significant roles, assuming both are reasonably productive. I don't think it can be safely assumed that Addai's role will be way larger than Brown's this season, it might end up being closer to 50-50, but this will all depend upon how Brown picks up the nuances of the NFL game.
Click to expand...
If that is the case we should be looking at something similar to:Donald Brown - Rushing 226/1081/7 Receiving 40/325/1

Joseph Addai - Rushing 187/641/5 Receiving 36/251

With Addai being the "starter" every game and then being cut after the season is over. As a Donald owner, :thumbup:
Click to expand...
Whole lot of faith placed in a guy that has never picked up a blitzing LB in the NFL. Notice I didn't say, play a down or carry the ball. The star of this team, the face of the franchise, is Peyton Manning. Addai can pass block. We don't know if Brown can block. Brown could have a 6.0 YPC but if he can't pass block his butt is going to be on the bench. I don't care where they picked the guy if he can't pass block he will not see the field.That being said, if Addai is injured they may have to risk Manning's health and platoon him with Hart. This guy is a very hard guy to predict.

Does anyone know about his pass blocking skills in college?
Click to expand...
I was commenting on the fact that posters are citing that Brown will be used as a compliment to Addai like how Addai was brought in. I just replaced Addai's and Rhodes' stats with Brown and Addai's name.
 
TheFanatic said:
VTjkru said:
mlball77 said:
I heard an interview with Polian on NFL Radio a month or so ago stating that Brown was drafted to be used in a committee of sorts with Addai, much like when Addai was brought in to share time with Rhodes (paraphrasing).

Based on that, I am assuming Addai is the starter, but that both will play significant roles, assuming both are reasonably productive. I don't think it can be safely assumed that Addai's role will be way larger than Brown's this season, it might end up being closer to 50-50, but this will all depend upon how Brown picks up the nuances of the NFL game.
Click to expand...
If that is the case we should be looking at something similar to:Donald Brown - Rushing 226/1081/7 Receiving 40/325/1

Joseph Addai - Rushing 187/641/5 Receiving 36/251

With Addai being the "starter" every game and then being cut after the season is over. As a Donald owner, :thumbup:
Click to expand...
Whole lot of faith placed in a guy that has never picked up a blitzing LB in the NFL. Notice I didn't say, play a down or carry the ball. The star of this team, the face of the franchise, is Peyton Manning. Addai can pass block. We don't know if Brown can block. Brown could have a 6.0 YPC but if he can't pass block his butt is going to be on the bench. I don't care where they picked the guy if he can't pass block he will not see the field.That being said, if Addai is injured they may have to risk Manning's health and platoon him with Hart. This guy is a very hard guy to predict.

Does anyone know about his pass blocking skills in college?
Click to expand...
The RB helping is pass protection is major for the colts. Which is why I don't think there's any way Polian drafted a RB in the first round unless he's pretty sure he can pass block.
 
Anonymous Internet User said:
I think Addai is more talented than Brown, and I don't see Brown making much of an impact this year. I expect Addai to get 70% of the RB touches, with the remainder split between Hart and Brown. assuming Addai plays 16 games, I see Brown along the lines of:65/280/1
Click to expand...
I would agree. Addai will get 65-70% of the carries if he is healthy.If he gets hurt that is another matter.Brown will not get a chance to start until this happens.It may be 3 games into the season.... but it may be 9 or 10 games into the season, and it may not happen at all.either way, once Addai gets hurt, the Job will be Browns to lose. I will agree on that much.
 
VTjkru said:
mlball77 said:
I heard an interview with Polian on NFL Radio a month or so ago stating that Brown was drafted to be used in a committee of sorts with Addai, much like when Addai was brought in to share time with Rhodes (paraphrasing).

Based on that, I am assuming Addai is the starter, but that both will play significant roles, assuming both are reasonably productive. I don't think it can be safely assumed that Addai's role will be way larger than Brown's this season, it might end up being closer to 50-50, but this will all depend upon how Brown picks up the nuances of the NFL game.
Click to expand...
If that is the case we should be looking at something similar to:Donald Brown - Rushing 226/1081/7 Receiving 40/325/1

Joseph Addai - Rushing 187/641/5 Receiving 36/251

With Addai being the "starter" every game and then being cut after the season is over. As a Donald owner, :thumbup:
Click to expand...
I don't know if that is a realistic way to apply what Polian stated on NFL Radio a month ago. The general point I was making, based on what Polian said, is that in 2006 they had an effective backfield with two players that were each heavily involved running and catching. Similarly, they expect to have both Addai and Brown both very much in the mix. How that shakes out exactly was not even hinted about by Polian, but it seemed very clear to me that the plan was to get Brown into the mix along with Addai right out of the gates.
 
benm3218 said:
switz said:
Addai was drafted to start, Brown was drafted to complement.
Click to expand...
POlien drafting him in the first round was to compliment Addai??? This does not make sense. Re-read what you wrote. You will admit if you think about it.
Click to expand...
Felix Jones was drafted to start over Barber?Jonathon Stewart was drafted to start over Williams?Funny how last year everyone was saying that despite those guys being drafted in the first, they wouldn't beat out the incumbent. Addai had outperformed Barber every season except last, and Williams had been a backup all along until last season.Add in the fact, that Polian came out right after the draft and said that the NFL was moving toward two and three RB running attacks, and that they felt their running game was the best when Addai was a rookie paired with Rhodes. He also said that Addai would be able to have a much longer career as a Colt, with Brown being drafted to share carries with him.When they drafted Addai, they envisioned him as the new Edge. It admittedly didn't turn out that way. But they now want to run 2 RB system, which is why they drafted Brown.You Addai haters / Brown supporters might not like it, but that's the cold hard truth.
 
switz said:
benm3218 said:
switz said:
Addai was drafted to start, Brown was drafted to complement.
Click to expand...
POlien drafting him in the first round was to compliment Addai??? This does not make sense. Re-read what you wrote. You will admit if you think about it.
Click to expand...
Felix Jones was drafted to start over Barber?Jonathon Stewart was drafted to start over Williams?Funny how last year everyone was saying that despite those guys being drafted in the first, they wouldn't beat out the incumbent. Addai had outperformed Barber every season except last, and Williams had been a backup all along until last season.Add in the fact, that Polian came out right after the draft and said that the NFL was moving toward two and three RB running attacks, and that they felt their running game was the best when Addai was a rookie paired with Rhodes. He also said that Addai would be able to have a much longer career as a Colt, with Brown being drafted to share carries with him.When they drafted Addai, they envisioned him as the new Edge. It admittedly didn't turn out that way. But they now want to run 2 RB system, which is why they drafted Brown.You Addai haters / Brown supporters might not like it, but that's the cold hard truth.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: You have no idea how much that hurt to do ...
 
TheFanatic said:
switz said:
benm3218 said:
switz said:
Addai was drafted to start, Brown was drafted to complement.
Click to expand...
POlien drafting him in the first round was to compliment Addai??? This does not make sense. Re-read what you wrote. You will admit if you think about it.
Click to expand...
Felix Jones was drafted to start over Barber?Jonathon Stewart was drafted to start over Williams?Funny how last year everyone was saying that despite those guys being drafted in the first, they wouldn't beat out the incumbent. Addai had outperformed Barber every season except last, and Williams had been a backup all along until last season.Add in the fact, that Polian came out right after the draft and said that the NFL was moving toward two and three RB running attacks, and that they felt their running game was the best when Addai was a rookie paired with Rhodes. He also said that Addai would be able to have a much longer career as a Colt, with Brown being drafted to share carries with him.When they drafted Addai, they envisioned him as the new Edge. It admittedly didn't turn out that way. But they now want to run 2 RB system, which is why they drafted Brown.You Addai haters / Brown supporters might not like it, but that's the cold hard truth.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: You have no idea how much that hurt to do ...
Click to expand...
I can't wait to make you eat crow over this. I can't wait.
 
benm3218 said:
TheFanatic said:
switz said:
benm3218 said:
switz said:
Addai was drafted to start, Brown was drafted to complement.
Click to expand...
POlien drafting him in the first round was to compliment Addai??? This does not make sense. Re-read what you wrote. You will admit if you think about it.
Click to expand...
Felix Jones was drafted to start over Barber?Jonathon Stewart was drafted to start over Williams?Funny how last year everyone was saying that despite those guys being drafted in the first, they wouldn't beat out the incumbent. Addai had outperformed Barber every season except last, and Williams had been a backup all along until last season.Add in the fact, that Polian came out right after the draft and said that the NFL was moving toward two and three RB running attacks, and that they felt their running game was the best when Addai was a rookie paired with Rhodes. He also said that Addai would be able to have a much longer career as a Colt, with Brown being drafted to share carries with him.When they drafted Addai, they envisioned him as the new Edge. It admittedly didn't turn out that way. But they now want to run 2 RB system, which is why they drafted Brown.You Addai haters / Brown supporters might not like it, but that's the cold hard truth.
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:goodposting: You have no idea how much that hurt to do ...
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I can't wait to make you eat crow over this. I can't wait.
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It will be like eating two crows. Trust me :bag:
 
Previous coaching staff wanted Addai; current coaching staff wanted Brown. Addai is a declining player whose ypc has gone done every year and this past year was really atrocious. This year carries may be split 50/50, but if he performs, Brown will eventually move Addai aside.

Brown is a guy who can do it all and who has a very good work ethic. He isn't the kind of guy who will get to the NFL and not see playing time because of an inability to learn NFL blocking or team playbook. He runs inside and out well and catches well too. I could see him being the goal line back, the third down and long back (receptions), and second half back. Addai will start but Brown will get alot of opportunities on a good offense.

220 carries, 4.2 ypc, 924 yards, 8 TDs; 33 receptions, 8.5 ypc, 280 yards, 2 receiving TDs.

 
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az_prof said:
Previous coaching staff wanted Addai; current coaching staff wanted Brown.
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Uh... no. That would clear things up if it were true, but it's not. Current HC was already HC-in-waiting when Addai was drafted, the GM is still the same GM, which BTW Polian is not moved too much by coaching staff wants when building a team.
 
switz said:
TheFanatic said:
benm3218 said:
TheFanatic said:
switz said:
You Addai haters / Brown supporters might not like it, but that's the cold hard truth.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: You have no idea how much that hurt to do ...
Click to expand...
I can't wait to make you eat crow over this. I can't wait.
Click to expand...
It will be like eating two crows. Trust me :bag:
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Good thing you won't need to eat any crow... :P
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I love my Colts, and always want every player to do well, but Brown is the future, sorry.
 
switz said:
az_prof said:
Previous coaching staff wanted Addai; current coaching staff wanted Brown.
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Uh... no. That would clear things up if it were true, but it's not. Current HC was already HC-in-waiting when Addai was drafted, the GM is still the same GM, which BTW Polian is not moved too much by coaching staff wants when building a team.
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It's true that Caldwell was on staff when Addai was drafted, but as a QB Coach, not even the OC. However, logically, you can't have it both ways and say that he isn't "new" and therefore the pick says nothing about his preference, and at the same time say that Polian doesn't listen to coaches anyway. If as you say Polian doesn't listen to his coaches much, then Caldwell could not have had much influence on Addai's selection, especially since his status in the organization was much weaker at the time of that pick.Whether Caldwell signalled to Polian that he would like a more reliable back or whether Polian made the choice in isolation, I still find it hard to see the pick as anything but a sign that the team leadership doesn't have alot of faith in Addai.
 
az_prof said:
Whether Caldwell signalled to Polian that he would like a more reliable back or whether Polian made the choice in isolation, I still find it hard to see the pick as anything but a sign that the team leadership doesn't have alot of faith in Addai.
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Polian must have been lying then when he said the team felt it was best running two RBs, and that Addai was going to have a longer career as a Colt with Brown complementing him.
 
Here is a different angle for y'all. You have to consider the Team's MO with new RBs.

Rookie RB numbers.

Edge - rush 1533 and 13 TDs : 62 rec 586 and 4 TDs

Rhodes - rush 1100 and 9 TDs : 34 Rec 224 and 0 TDs

Addai - rush 1081 and 8 TDs : 40 rec 325 and 1 TD

Sure we can bust up every stat out there. I can poke the following holes in the above stats.

1: Edge played only 6 games the year Rhodes came in. Although he averaged over 100 yards per game.

2: Rhodes wasn't much when Addai came in.

3: The NFL has changed to a RBBC world since Edge's rookie year.

I'm taking the following into consideration, in addition to busting out the raw projections and injury guesses, when doing my research on Brown.

A: Indy's MO when they bring in a new Back.

B: indy's MO on getting a first round draft pick involved early.

And 3: Brown's work ethic and how that fits/pays off in Indy's system.

This is just a little change up and a different perspective for you.

In my league I can keep 2 guys every year and I'm keeping 2 of Chris Johnson, Forte and S-Jax so I'm looking for a guy who grow into a feature back or on the strong side of the RBBC later in the season and who has potential to be a stud in the years to come. So far Donald Brown is a high prospect.

Cheers and enjoy the research.

 
Team Canada said:
Here is a different angle for y'all. You have to consider the Team's MO with new RBs.Rookie RB numbers.Edge - rush 1533 and 13 TDs : 62 rec 586 and 4 TDsRhodes - rush 1100 and 9 TDs : 34 Rec 224 and 0 TDsAddai - rush 1081 and 8 TDs : 40 rec 325 and 1 TDSure we can bust up every stat out there. I can poke the following holes in the above stats. 1: Edge played only 6 games the year Rhodes came in. Although he averaged over 100 yards per game.2: Rhodes wasn't much when Addai came in.3: The NFL has changed to a RBBC world since Edge's rookie year. I'm taking the following into consideration, in addition to busting out the raw projections and injury guesses, when doing my research on Brown. A: Indy's MO when they bring in a new Back.B: indy's MO on getting a first round draft pick involved early.And 3: Brown's work ethic and how that fits/pays off in Indy's system. This is just a little change up and a different perspective for you. In my league I can keep 2 guys every year and I'm keeping 2 of Chris Johnson, Forte and S-Jax so I'm looking for a guy who grow into a feature back or on the strong side of the RBBC later in the season and who has potential to be a stud in the years to come. So far Donald Brown is a high prospect. Cheers and enjoy the research.
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just going to poke another hole if you don't mind. the only other running back they had was Keith Elias (64 touches in his career) when they brought in Edge. They clearly brought Edge in to replace the traded Marshall Faulk.
 
Projected 2009 Stats – 162 att, 687 yards, 5 TD; 30 rec, 237 yards, 1 TD

Brown could easily enjoy the rookie season that Addai had in 2006 sharing time with Dominic Rhodes. While at the time Addai was considered a major reach to fill the void of Edgerrin James, Brown is a highly regarded prospect. Rumor has it that the Cardinals were in position to draft Brown instead of Beanie Wells before the Colts beat them to the punch.

Given the situation that Brown finds himself in, he could be a key contributor to your fantasy football championship in 2009 as a mid-round steal. Brown will pass Addai on the depth chart in 2010, making him an excellent keeper league pick.

 
two_dollars said:
This will be one to watch in the preseason.
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More like trade Brown as soon as he gets a TD. Sell him as a Colt RB for the next 10 years. I'm pretty sure the RB pecking order is already in place, and the preseason won't change it.Addai is going to start. And he'll start all year if healthy. Brown won't startable in FF. Addai at MJD ish type carries will probably be pretty good. To think Brown is going to come in and be a workhorse is wishful thinking. This is basically the Giants RBs from last year. Addai starting, Rhodes is Ward and Brown is AB. There might be games Brown gets 1-2 carries. I'd sell high on Brown the first chance I get. Then week 6 when he has 150 total yards and 1 td, go get him back for 1/2 the price. People are expecting way too much of him, when he's the 3rd RB and a rookie.
 
teamroc said:
two_dollars said:
This will be one to watch in the preseason.
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More like trade Brown as soon as he gets a TD. Sell him as a Colt RB for the next 10 years. I'm pretty sure the RB pecking order is already in place, and the preseason won't change it.Addai is going to start. And he'll start all year if healthy. Brown won't startable in FF.

Addai at MJD ish type carries will probably be pretty good. To think Brown is going to come in and be a workhorse is wishful thinking.

This is basically the Giants RBs from last year. Addai starting, Rhodes is Ward and Brown is AB. There might be games Brown gets 1-2 carries.

I'd sell high on Brown the first chance I get. Then week 6 when he has 150 total yards and 1 td, go get him back for 1/2 the price. People are expecting way too much of him, when he's the 3rd RB and a rookie.
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Rhodes is in Buffalo now. Try again.
 
teamroc said:
two_dollars said:
This will be one to watch in the preseason.
Click to expand...
More like trade Brown as soon as he gets a TD. Sell him as a Colt RB for the next 10 years. I'm pretty sure the RB pecking order is already in place, and the preseason won't change it.Addai is going to start. And he'll start all year if healthy. Brown won't startable in FF. Addai at MJD ish type carries will probably be pretty good. To think Brown is going to come in and be a workhorse is wishful thinking. This is basically the Giants RBs from last year. Addai starting, Rhodes is Ward and Brown is AB. There might be games Brown gets 1-2 carries. I'd sell high on Brown the first chance I get. Then week 6 when he has 150 total yards and 1 td, go get him back for 1/2 the price. People are expecting way too much of him, when he's the 3rd RB and a rookie.
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I love people who think they know everything while ignoring facts. There are several stories about Addai's decline and others about how Indy is very wary of him going forward.
 
teamroc said:
This is basically the Giants RBs from last year. Addai starting, Rhodes is Ward and Brown is AB. There might be games Brown gets 1-2 carries.
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That has to be the worst assessment in this thread. Did the Giants burn a 1st round pick on Bradshaw? They are in no way in equal situations.I think anyone who thinks either one is getting significantly more than a 60/40 split is delusional.
 
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BuckeyeArt said:
teamroc said:
This is basically the Giants RBs from last year. Addai starting, Rhodes is Ward and Brown is AB. There might be games Brown gets 1-2 carries.
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That has to be the worst assessment in this thread. Did the Giants burn a 1st round pick on Bradshaw? They are in no way in equal situations.I think anyone who thinks either one is getting significantly more than a 60/40 split is delusional.
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It is the worst assessment in this thread because Rhodes is now a Bill.
 
It's funny how quickly opinions can change in the NFL and in the minds of fantasy players. I hated Addai at his first round ADP last season, and I'm loving him this season as a fifth rounder.

So, the Colts drafted Donald Brown? What's the big deal? The Panthers drafted Jonathan Stewart earlier than the Colts drafted Brown. I'm guessing there were several opinions around here that DeAngelo would be losing his job because he was done.

Maybe the same type of fire has been lit under Addai.

In 2008, Addai was injured early in the season, Manning was rusty because of the knee, and the offensive line went through injuries as well. There were several factors that can be attributed to Addai's poor season.

06- 226 for 1081 and 7 TDs rushing; 40 for 325 and 1 TDs receiving.

07- 261 for 1072 and 12 TDs rushing; 41 for 364 and 3 TDs receiving.

To me, 2008 looks like the outlier. If anything, Addai will benefit from Brown taking some of the load. The Colts are going to score points, a lot of them, and Addai will have plenty of value around that 250 carry mark with the potential for 1300+ total yards and 10+ TDs. Addai looks to be a great RB2 if you want to draft WRs or a QB early this season.

This is only Addai's fourth season. He's far from done.

Maybe I should have posted this in the Addai spotlight. :thumbup:

 
az_prof said:
switz said:
az_prof said:
Previous coaching staff wanted Addai; current coaching staff wanted Brown.
Click to expand...
Uh... no. That would clear things up if it were true, but it's not. Current HC was already HC-in-waiting when Addai was drafted, the GM is still the same GM, which BTW Polian is not moved too much by coaching staff wants when building a team.
Click to expand...
However, logically, you can't have it both ways and say that he isn't "new" and therefore the pick says nothing about his preference, and at the same time say that Polian doesn't listen to coaches anyway.
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My point was - no matter how you slice it - the argument about the current coaching staff wanting Brown has no merit... period.
az_prof said:
Whether Caldwell signalled to Polian that he would like a more reliable back or whether Polian made the choice in isolation, I still find it hard to see the pick as anything but a sign that the team leadership doesn't have alot of faith in Addai.
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They didn't have anything in the RB roster outside of Addai. It was painfully obvious last year without a solid backup to Addai, when Addai was injured, the running game was putrid. The Colts needed someone to complement Addai so he wouldn't get hurt, and to start if Addai was injured. That's why they brought Rhodes back last year in the first place, but then they realized Rhodes had nothing left in the tank.What did you expect them to go with? Kenton Keith? Lance Ball? Mike Hart coming off a knee injury? What RB in the draft were they to go for? This draft was terribly weak at RB, and Brown was in reality, the only RB that even fits the Colts system at all. If they didn't draft him in the first, they wouldn't have drafted ANY RB.

 
Brown is the future in Indy. Anyone who thinks Addai will get resigned when his rookie contract is up doesn't follow the Colts closely. The front office and coaching staff never says much, but sometimes it is what they don't say that matters. Polian is very disappointed in Addai. Brown will be the primary back, and the Colts will develop a middle rounder (or Hart, who knows) after Addai is gone to share the workload with Brown.

The new head coach has been on staff with Dungy for years. He was not just the QB coach. He was the assistant head coach (at least a part of the major decision-making) for a couple years now while being groomed to take over after Dungy retired. There won't be significant changes this year. This isn't a situation like Denver.

190/850/5 - 30/250/1

 
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djcolts said:
teamroc said:
two_dollars said:
This will be one to watch in the preseason.
Click to expand...
More like trade Brown as soon as he gets a TD. Sell him as a Colt RB for the next 10 years. I'm pretty sure the RB pecking order is already in place, and the preseason won't change it.Addai is going to start. And he'll start all year if healthy. Brown won't startable in FF.

Addai at MJD ish type carries will probably be pretty good. To think Brown is going to come in and be a workhorse is wishful thinking.

This is basically the Giants RBs from last year. Addai starting, Rhodes is Ward and Brown is AB. There might be games Brown gets 1-2 carries.

I'd sell high on Brown the first chance I get. Then week 6 when he has 150 total yards and 1 td, go get him back for 1/2 the price. People are expecting way too much of him, when he's the 3rd RB and a rookie.
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Rhodes is in Buffalo now. Try again.
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:lmao: Sad thing is, people may just read his post and agree with him because of his sure-fire confidence, without looking at the source.
 
This draft was terribly weak at RB, and Brown was in reality, the only RB that even fits the Colts system at all.
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This to me makes it impossible to know if the Colts thought Beanie or Brown was the more talented back. Beanies three question marks (health, receiving, pass protection) could have made him an atrocious fit for the Colts. Having a better RB 3-4 years down the line isn't nearly as important as maximizing your chances of winning during Peyton Mannings prime.
 
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