Player Spotlight: Jamal Lewis (1 Viewer)

2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Jamal Lewis, RB, Cleveland Browns

Player Page Link: Jamal Lewis Player Page

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Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

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Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
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For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

Jamal Lewis is yet another case of lots of attempts for rather mediocre return per carry but will turn to be a decent fantasy weapon. Not quite so great in real life.

There are 2 Changes I think for Lewis

1) The Cleavland offense will almost certainly be better then last year. While it won't be 07 good it will be better then what they did last year.

2) Mangini is coming in which means more Harrison carries.

So this means better production on a Per Carry Basis, but less playing time overall. In addition it is very feasible to suspect that there will be more carries to go around as Mangini gave out more then the Cleavend Offense has in 2/3 past years (2007 being the acception at 440 which is in the Mangini zone.)

So we can expect (based on past usage of Thomas Jones vs Leon Washington ) that of approximentally 430 attempts that Jerome Harrison's high side is 75. In addition we can expect about 40 to go to other players (QB, 3rd RB, WR runs etc). This leaves for Jamal Lewis about 315 attempts.

If we expect slight improvement over last year (And over the 06 Ravens offense) we can probably put YPC up to 3.8 which is low for a starting running back but would be a decent year for Lewis.

About 9 rushing TDs is a decent projection for Cleaveland of which 7 will end up in Lewis' hands as the goal line back.

On the recieving side He'll probably do a little worst then last year with Harrison (why do I keep writing Norwood there? ) taking more of those duties

So total it up

315-1197-7 18-142-0

Coboney said:

Jamal Lewis is yet another case of lots of attempts for rather mediocre return per carry but will turn to be a decent fantasy weapon. Not quite so great in real life.There are 2 Changes I think for Lewis1) The Cleavland offense will almost certainly be better then last year. While it won't be 07 good it will be better then what they did last year.2) Mangini is coming in which means more Harrison carries.So this means better production on a Per Carry Basis, but less playing time overall. In addition it is very feasible to suspect that there will be more carries to go around as Mangini gave out more then the Cleavend Offense has in 2/3 past years (2007 being the acception at 440 which is in the Mangini zone.) So we can expect (based on past usage of Thomas Jones vs Leon Washington ) that of approximentally 430 attempts that Jerome Harrison's high side is 75. In addition we can expect about 40 to go to other players (QB, 3rd RB, WR runs etc). This leaves for Jamal Lewis about 315 attempts. If we expect slight improvement over last year (And over the 06 Ravens offense) we can probably put YPC up to 3.8 which is low for a starting running back but would be a decent year for Lewis.About 9 rushing TDs is a decent projection for Cleaveland of which 7 will end up in Lewis' hands as the goal line back.On the recieving side He'll probably do a little worst then last year with Harrison (why do I keep writing Norwood there? ) taking more of those dutiesSo total it up315-1197-7 18-142-0

Click to expand...

Can he really still carry the ball 315 times a year?? Im guessing not? Harrison and Davis will eat into his carries...........IF at 440 attempts(RBs only?) for Clev:Jamal: 230 Att. / 889 yds / 5 TDs / 15 Rec / 88 yds / 0 TDsHarrison: 120 / 464 / 3 TDs / 41 / 398 / 3 TDsDavis: 90 / 310 / 4 TDs / 6 / 67 / 0 TDs

Last season Lewis carried the ball 279 times for 1002 yards, 3.6 YPC, 4 TDs. Of those carries, 40 were no gain or losses and 95 were for 1-2 yards. Almost 50% of his carries were for 2 yards or less.

Magini has used his primary running backs for totals of 366, 381, and 395 carries, averaging 380 primary RB carries per season. In his first season with the Jets, he gave almost even splits to Leon Washington (151), Kevan Barlow (131), and Cedric Houston (113)... And I could see that being the case for his first year with the Browns as well.

Based on his ineffectiveness last season, I'm going to predict a precipitous drop in Lewis's carries, to 150, but that he's used as the goal-line back giving him a slight uptick in TDs.

J.Lewis - 150 carries / 510 yards / 3.4 YPC / 6 TDs / 2 Fumbles / 26 Rec / 116 Yards / 0 Rec. TD

J. Harrison - 165 carries / 742 yards / 4.5 YPC / 4 TDs / 3 Fumbles / 40 Rec / 325 Yards / 1 Rec. TD

J. Davis - 65 carries / 240 yards / 3.7 YPC / 0 TDs / 1 Fumble / 10 Rec / 57 Yards / 0 Rec. TD

Based on the Browns offseason moves Mangini wants a power running game between the tackles, the only player currently on the roster that's both experienced and matches this skill set is Lewis.

I guess the question becomes, do you think Lewis is done? If yes, avoid him. If no, he's a prime target for you in the 6th round range. If he's not done he's going to get a lot of touches this year and will out produce his ADP.

Jamal Lewis appears to present opportunity for going heavy WR early and waiting for moderate performing RB on the cheap in later rounds. I expect that similar to Cedric Benson, Jamal Lewis will provide decent stats in 09 as he has very little that threatens to take his carries from him. He is getting a little older (30 at the start of the season), he has slowed down (but could gain some quickness back if his ankle is well) and yet he should be the team's stalwart back.

In 07, he had nine games with over twenty carries, including seven with over 100 total yards, and scored 11 total TDs. His average per carry slumped from 4.4 ypc to 3.6 as the Browns offense deteriorated. Yet, he still had five games with over 20 carries and four more with 19. I expect that his ypc will increase with his ankle improvement and a little offensive improvement for the Browns.

Very nice game to game scoring, even though possibly with moderate upside from a very low draft pick as he is currently at ADP is RB34 and 83 overall.

Jamal Lewis 280 carries 1120 yards 4.0 ypc 30 targets 22 catches 154 yards 7.0 ypc and 8 TDs

I will be avoiding all of the Cleveland RBs this year. My team would really have to suck to have to start any of them on a consistent basis, or ever for that matter. I don't think there's a chance any of the guys produce eye popping stats, so why not take someone who actually has the potential for a high ceiling?

First 10 weeks of the season... how many times will Jamal look like even a decent starting option? 4 times? And even in those games, consider that last year he had just 65 yards @ BUF and 76 at home vs. CIN, no TDs in either. I wouldn't be surprised to see owners waive him during Cleveland's bye week.

Sunday, September 13 vs MINNESOTA VIKINGS FOX 1:00 PM

Sunday, September 20 @ Denver Broncos CBS 4:15 PM

Sunday, September 27 @ Baltimore Ravens CBS 1:00 PM

Sunday, October 4 vs CINCINNATI BENGALS CBS 1:00 PM

Sunday, October 11 @ Buffalo Bills CBS 1:00 PM

Sunday, October 18 @ Pittsburgh Steelers CBS 1:00 PM

Sunday, October 25 vs GREEN BAY PACKERS FOX 1:00 PM

Sunday, November 1 @ Chicago Bears CBS 1:00 PM

[bye week]

Monday, November 16 vs BALTIMORE RAVENS ESPN 8:30 PM

I would stay away unless he came at a ridiculous discount. Where he is being drafted I would rather take a shot on upside.

•TheRealMcCoy said:

Coboney said:

Jamal Lewis is yet another case of lots of attempts for rather mediocre return per carry but will turn to be a decent fantasy weapon. Not quite so great in real life.There are 2 Changes I think for Lewis1) The Cleavland offense will almost certainly be better then last year. While it won't be 07 good it will be better then what they did last year.2) Mangini is coming in which means more Harrison carries.So this means better production on a Per Carry Basis, but less playing time overall. In addition it is very feasible to suspect that there will be more carries to go around as Mangini gave out more then the Cleavend Offense has in 2/3 past years (2007 being the acception at 440 which is in the Mangini zone.) So we can expect (based on past usage of Thomas Jones vs Leon Washington ) that of approximentally 430 attempts that Jerome Harrison's high side is 75. In addition we can expect about 40 to go to other players (QB, 3rd RB, WR runs etc). This leaves for Jamal Lewis about 315 attempts. If we expect slight improvement over last year (And over the 06 Ravens offense) we can probably put YPC up to 3.8 which is low for a starting running back but would be a decent year for Lewis.About 9 rushing TDs is a decent projection for Cleaveland of which 7 will end up in Lewis' hands as the goal line back.On the recieving side He'll probably do a little worst then last year with Harrison (why do I keep writing Norwood there? ) taking more of those dutiesSo total it up315-1197-7 18-142-0

Click to expand...

Can he really still carry the ball 315 times a year?? Im guessing not? Harrison and Davis will eat into his carries...........IF at 440 attempts(RBs only?) for Clev:Jamal: 230 Att. / 889 yds / 5 TDs / 15 Rec / 88 yds / 0 TDsHarrison: 120 / 464 / 3 TDs / 41 / 398 / 3 TDsDavis: 90 / 310 / 4 TDs / 6 / 67 / 0 TDs

Click to expand...

He might not be able to. But he did carry over the last 3 years: 279, 298 and 314 (in balt).The 440 was team rushes - Mangini's teams in New York were 422, 446 and 491. The Browns over the last 3 years have had: 409, 440 and 372.As for Mangini continuing to give the ball to an unspectatular option 300+ times... I call to the stand Thomas Jones 2007 (310-1119-3.6-1)It is very possible that if Lewis were to go downhill that things could go really bad. He's got limited upside but he could fall off the planet completely as well.Also for Harrison - he's never had more then 46 touches in a year and in 07/08 Washington had 108 and 123 (with the uptick being receptions.)

Lewis has had the off season ankle surgeries. He has yet to really demonstrate how he doing in a team activity. Reports are that he is looking forward to the start of the season to show he still has the "legs" for the task. Mangini quoting that he wamts to get Jerome Harrison involved more is simply a motivating factor / coach speak for 3rd down COP RB.

Between the tackles power running game features Lewis's strength. His forte is to wear down the defense with repeated beatings up front.

J Davis is a late round flier who showed some limited talent in the OTAs. Not contact drills are fine for a young player trying to make an impression. I watched several of his games at Clemson. He can not break a tackle & drops too often from simple arm hits on his legs. He was drafted appropriately = 6th round talent (flier to make roster, not a starter).

Harrison has the potential to eat a few of his touches to give him a breather. Jerome might get 25% / 100 carries this year, but he will not be the GL RB. His strength is as a reciever out of the backfield.

My Projections for Jamal Lewis:

315 carries

1180 yards (3.75 ypc)

8 TD

12 Rec

58 yards

0 TD

Solid RB3 value for a player with an ADP of 90 (7th round value)

prgromek said:

I would stay away unless he came at a ridiculous discount. Where he is being drafted I would rather take a shot on upside.

Click to expand...

no kidding. he is all downside and ready to all but fall off a cliff. if he even comes close to last year's meager stats I would be amazed.

He's my 4th RB in a Keeper league that I don't mind holding on to. The discount on elderly RBs these days means that I can't trade him and I'm only going to have to start him once or twice this season. In a redraft league, I wouldn't take him in the first 9 rounds but he still has the potential to start on a good matchup week.

My guess is 220 carries, 900 yards, 5 TDs, 14 catches for 100 yards, 0 TDs.

Harrison and the rookie Davis will share the rest of the workload:

150 carries, 900 yards, 5 TDs, 40 catches for 350 yards, 5 TDs

I think the Browns are going to have a pretty miserable offense, especially if Brady Quinn is starting, so I don't think much of anybody on that team.