Player Spotlight: Santonio Holmes (1 Viewer)

2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

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Thread Topic: Santonio Holmes, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Player Page Link: Santonio Holmes Player Page

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Holmes is an enigma. He nearly equaled his regular season highs for catches (5) and yards (94) on the Steelers Super Bowl winning drive (4-73). I think he is starting to put it all together and will start to command the ball more beginning this year:

75 receptions

1150 yards

9 TD

Will this be the year he gets takes the torch from Ward?

I say yes!

70 catches

1250 yds

7 tds

85/1300/8

I've seen lots of mocks where TO/Housh/Welker go immediately after Colsten/Boldin. I could never do that because imo the 2nd tier of WR's ends after the latter two. Holmes is one of the reasons I don't mind passing on TO, et al and going with Witten or someone instead.

But maybe my WR tiering is way off

Until they cart Hines Ward's dead and bloated carcass off of the field, Santonio Holmes is NOT going to be the first read at WR for Roethlisberger. Undoubtedly, he had a great SB. Given that, I don't see much changing in the grand scheme though for 2009. Ward has been, and remains, Roethlisberger's security blanket.

65 catches, 975 yards, 5 TDs

He has the hands and body control to be much more than what he is, IMO, but he's on a team that doesn't exactly throw the ball over the field and he's absolutely, at best, 2nd in the pecking order for targets behind Ward.

When Ward hangs them up, or decidely slows down at some point, I could see Tone getting his catches up into the low 80s, but I don't see it happening until then. And it probably won't until 2010-2011.

Honestly I think he's a little over-hyped, he did have a great SuperBowl but he did it against that Cardinals defense that was awful most of the season, ESPECIALLY against teams using the ShotGun, if you remember when New England eviscerated the Cards 47-7, they used primarily ShotGun, even though they played in a snowstorm. Similarly the Steelers marched to that SuperBowl winning driving also using the ShotGun, and its on that drive in which Holmes did most of his damage.

His catch rate dropped from 61% in 2007 to an abysmal 48% in 2008, so it really depends on how many targets you think he will get with Nate Washington departed, and whether he will catch closer 50% or 60% of his passes. He averaged 14.9 YPC last season, that number sees high if he's going to be taking a bigger role in the offense, so I'm going with 14.0 YPC for projects.

So if we up his 2009 targets from 114 to 125, he's numbers look like: (with 55% catch rate) 68 Rec, 952 Yards, 6 TDs

In PPR Leagues, I'd stay away because during the regular season, he averaged only 2.6 receptions per game. He's another receiver who's end of year numbers will look good but game to game he will be pretty inconsistent, rarely putting together 60+ yards and 1 TD. Someone is likely to remember his dominate superbowl and overdraft him, so I' leaning towards passing on Mr. Holmes in most of my leagues.

- JW

JDub15 said:

Honestly I think he's a little over-hyped, he did have a great SuperBowl but he did it against that Cardinals defense that was awful most of the season, ESPECIALLY against teams using the ShotGun, if you remember when New England eviscerated the Cards 47-7, they used primarily ShotGun, even though they played in a snowstorm. Similarly the Steelers marched to that SuperBowl winning driving also using the ShotGun, and its on that drive in which Holmes did most of his damage.

His catch rate dropped from 61% in 2007 to an abysmal 48% in 2008, so it really depends on how many targets you think he will get with Nate Washington departed, and whether he will catch closer 50% or 60% of his passes. He averaged 14.9 YPC last season, that number sees high if he's going to be taking a bigger role in the offense, so I'm going with 14.0 YPC for projects.

So if we up his 2009 targets from 114 to 125, he's numbers look like: (with 55% catch rate) 68 Rec, 952 Yards, 6 TDs

In PPR Leagues, I'd stay away because during the regular season, he averaged only 2.6 receptions per game. He's another receiver who's end of year numbers will look good but game to game he will be pretty inconsistent, rarely putting together 60+ yards and 1 TD. Someone is likely to remember his dominate superbowl and overdraft him, so I' leaning towards passing on Mr. Holmes in most of my leagues.

- JW

Click to expand...

I agree he'll likely be drafted too high for my taste, especially since it seems there are Steelers fans in every league.

With remembrances of Santonio Holmes' super bowl winning catch and the Super Bowl MVP award still entrenched in everyone's mind, Holmes has a current ADP of WR21 and 59 overall. I am not seeing him performing at that rate. Let's check the stats since Holmes has been in Pittsburgh.

08 Ward 16 gms 126 targets 81 catches 64.2% 1043 yards 12.9 ypc 7 TDs

08 Holmes 15 gms 114 targets 55 catches 48.2% 821 yards 14.9 ypc 5 TDs

07 Ward 13 gms 113 targets 71 catches 62.8% 732 yards 10.3 ypc 7 TDs

07 Holmes 13 gms 85 targets 52 catches 61.1% 942 yards 18.1 ypc 8 TDs

06 Ward 14 gms 126 targets 74 catches 58.7% 975 yards 13.2 ypc 6 TDs

06 Holmes 16 gms 86 targets 49 catches 55.7% 824 yards 16.8 ypc 2 TDs

Hines Ward for three years in a row has been more frequently targeted, has more catches, has a higher catch percentage, and more TDs in two of the three years. I see that it might be possible for Holmes to have a higher percentage of targets, but still finish near or below Hines Ward, who has an ADP of WR26 and 71 overall. I am sticking with Ward as the Steeler's WR #1.

Santonio Holmes 105 targets 58 catches 55% 928 yards 16.0 ypc and 6 TDs

Will be taking Hines several rounds later again this year. Given his SB performance, he'll again go far sooner than I'd consider taking him. To me, he's another in the mold of Chambers/Evans. Guys that I'd only want as 3's but go far sooner than that.

60 875 5

rzrback77 said:

With remembrances of Santonio Holmes' super bowl winning catch and the Super Bowl MVP award still entrenched in everyone's mind, Holmes has a current ADP of WR21 and 59 overall. I am not seeing him performing at that rate. Let's check the stats since Holmes has been in Pittsburgh.

08 Ward 16 gms 126 targets 81 catches 64.2% 1043 yards 12.9 ypc 7 TDs 9 targets per game

08 Holmes 15 gms 114 targets 55 catches 48.2% 821 yards 14.9 ypc 5 TDs 7.6 targets/gm

07 Ward 13 gms 113 targets 71 catches 62.8% 732 yards 10.3 ypc 7 TDs 8.7 targets/gm

07 Holmes 13 gms 85 targets 52 catches 61.1% 942 yards 18.1 ypc 8 TDs 6.5 targets/gm

06 Ward 14 gms 126 targets 74 catches 58.7% 975 yards 13.2 ypc 6 TDs 9 targets/gm

06 Holmes 16 gms 86 targets 49 catches 55.7% 824 yards 16.8 ypc 2 TDs 5.4 targets/gm

Hines Ward for three years in a row has been more frequently targeted, has more catches, has a higher catch percentage, and more TDs in two of the three years. I see that it might be possible for Holmes to have a higher percentage of targets, but still finish near or below Hines Ward, who has an ADP of WR26 and 71 overall. I am sticking with Ward as the Steeler's WR #1.

Santonio Holmes 105 targets 58 catches 55% 928 yards 16.0 ypc and 6 TDs

Click to expand...

5.4, 6.5, 7.6... the progression of targets per game as Santonio has grown. At that pace, he's due for 8.8 targets per game this year. 140 seems high to me, so let's go with 8 per for 128 over 16 games. Even if he misses a couple games, that's still on pace for over 100 targets, and a catch % of 55 seems fair but I would argue that it could be higher with slight improvement from the line as the deep routes didn't have time to materialize too well last year (causing more errant throws and his lowest ypc). 70 with a very modest 14 ypc = 985 and 5 TDs are the floor, IMO for a 16 game schedule *feel free to knock two games off if that's your thing, and you get 62/862/4*. 73 for 1060 and 7 is my projection and 80 for 1270 and 11 should be his max.

I dunno about overvalued. From what I've seen he's ranked right about where he should be and being picked where he should. His ADP is certainly lower than last year...

Maybe there will be a casual donk in your league who thinks "zomg SB ---> elite" and reaches on him but those guys aren't doing rankings and mocks in July.