Let's discuss the 5th round (1 Viewer)

As we all know, analyzing ADP is a pretty critical part of draft day preparation. That said, I've been walking through each round, identifying which players represent value and how that can be interpreted into a solid draft & roster. Let me say that I always remain flexible, but I also go into a draft with my "ideal" situation based on ADP. I'm usually not too far off.

This brings me to the fifth round. It has essentially paralyzed me. It appears to be the perfect storm of upside players. Let's have a look...I've included several picks from the end of the fourth and beginning of the fifth for variance:

45 Darren McFadden, RB21

46 Thomas Jones, RB22

47 Tony Romo, QB7

48 Chad Ochocinco, WR18

49 Knowshon Moreno, RB23

50 Antonio Gates, TE2

51 Joseph Addai, RB24

52 Tony Gonzalez, TE3

53 Larry Johnson, RB25

54 Vincent Jackson, WR19

55 Jonathan Stewart, RB26

56 Donovan McNabb, QB8

57 Derrick Ward, RB27

58 Antonio Bryant, WR20

59 Santonio Holmes, WR21

60 Dallas Clark, TE4

61 DeSean Jackson, WR22

62 Willie Parker, RB28

63 Matt Ryan, QB9

64 Eddie Royal, WR23

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You can see that I have nine players as high upside guys. We can obviously debate who and why, and we can be sure that not all of them will be there in every draft...but I think it's safe for us to agree that we all have at least a few of these players targeted. That makes this round pivotal in separating your team from your competitors. I'd like to discuss what people are thinking about during this phase of the draft.So, I'll lead off. I'm struggling with Donovan McNabb. He seems to be the QB I keep coming back to. I have him as QB6, but the guys that are QB7/8 will go before him. After that, the value just drops off a cliff (QB9 - Big Ben, -30 pts, ADP 9.07). Seems like a good move to grab McNabb here...but the result of that is missing out on one of four RBs that will potentially be available, or one of four WRs that will potentially be avalable.

My current "ideal" strategy in rounds 1-4 is to draft my RB1, RB2, and WR1 in the first three rounds (no specific order), then draft the best WR/RB available in round 4. If I draft WR2 in round 4, then these 5th round RBs look good. Vice versa if I draft RB3 in round 4. You can see how McNabb stymies an otherwise logical progression of players. As mentioned, my flexibility may come into play - McNabb may go in the fourth. Peyton may be available in the third. If something out of the ordinary happens, my decision is made for me, and I move forward...but I need to be prepared to execute my "ideal" strategy should I be presented with the likely scenario.

So...what are your thoughts on round five? How will you interpret ADP to get the best result?

I go back and forth between wanting to grab a RB in rd 4, or waiting until rd 5 to get one. It seems like everytime I do a mock draft, the 4th rd comes and I don't like the WRs there, but also can't see that a Grant or P. Thomas is that much of an upgrade over LJ, Moreno or maybe Addai who can be had in the 5th rd.

I'm leaning towards RB in the 4th and Wr in the 5th...because I think the chances of a solid Wr falling are better than a solid Rb falling to the 5th rd. But also think that LJ and Moreno may have more upside in the 5th, so grabbing a WR in the 4th might be the way to go.

But I don't know if I helped this topic AT ALL. Just brainstorming basically.

I agree, this is where the decisions are made this year that matter, which I why I started a topic on 4th rd rbs.

I think Derrick Ward is a good 4th round target in PPR leagues. He seems to be flying a little under the radar. If you can get McFadden in the 4th, I think that's a good pick too. You can get Bush and/or Fargas real late and lock up the Oakland rushing attack.

at WR, Eddie Royal in the 5th is looking like good value to me in PPR leagues.

What I don't like is taking a TE or QB at this point in the draft. I like McNabb, but if I can get Schaub, Ryan, or Palmer 3 rounds later I'd rater do that. Or just take 3 QB2s like Edwards, Orton, Cassel in the latter half of the draft and hope one breaks out and/or play the matchups weekly. I think waiting on QB is the smart play this year.

I also believe it's smart to wait on TE this year. I will not spend a 4th round pick on Witten or Gates or Gonzo when I can get Z. Miller, Daniels, Keller in the 9th round. There is just too much depth at TE this year and WRs fall off a cliff so I'd much rater stock up there.

Man the 4th/5th round is just devoid of value in my mocks also. Too early for McNabb, I don't plan to take him before the 6th since as mentioned you can get Palmer several rounds later (in theory). I'd say if you are targeting Palmer don't go beyond a late 7th pick to get him because if you miss, the rest of the QBs are craptastic.

That being said, I also subscribe to grabbing 2WR and 2RB through round 4 this year, leaving round 5 as a wildcard of sorts. I'll take TE if Witten falls here (not likely), or QB if one of the 3 R's fall (Rivers/Rodgers/Romo).

So most likely, Round 5 will be either my 3rd RB or 3rd WR (start 2WR league), with the hope that one of these RBs will be there:

45 Darren McFadden, RB21

46 Thomas Jones, RB22

47 Tony Romo, QB7

48 Chad Ochocinco, WR18

49 Knowshon Moreno, RB23

50 Antonio Gates, TE2

51 Joseph Addai, RB24

52 Tony Gonzalez, TE3

53 Larry Johnson, RB25

54 Vincent Jackson, WR19

55 Jonathan Stewart, RB26

56 Donovan McNabb, QB8

57 Derrick Ward, RB27

58 Antonio Bryant, WR20

59 Santonio Holmes, WR21

60 Dallas Clark, TE4

61 DeSean Jackson, WR22

62 Willie Parker, RB28

63 Matt Ryan, QB9

64 Eddie Royal, WR23

I like Stewart and Ward but I just have ?'s regarding them right now that might not be resolved until preseason.

I agree that the 5th round is a pretty crucial round, often because this is the point where you have to make your first real decision......and I think your gut starts having more influence on your draft.....

your league rules come into affect here big time as well....for example in all the leagues I play in you can start 3 RB's...so I usually do....by the time the 5th round has come for me, I probably already have 3 RB's and 1 WR....you would think then the play would be to go WR here.....but I don't think so.....I think this is the perfect time to take a 4th RB....sounds stupid but hear me out.....if you can start 3 RB's, you want to have 4 solid ones....why?...because of bye weeks, injuries, etc there are probably going to be very few weeks where you actually get to start all of your top 3 backs....there are 3 bye weeks this year that have 6 teams on a bye.....I'm snagging an RB here Addia, Moreno, or LJ....then go WR in the 6th

LJ would be a great pick here in my scenerio

Moreno also....I think he is going to get the rock....I live in CO and when they decided to go offense with the 12th pick instead of shoring up that defense, you know something is up.....they are not gonna have the 12th pick sitting on the sidelines when everybody and their brother thought they should have gone defense

I agree that the 4th and 5th rounds seem to be full of value this year. In years past I'd usually try to stay balanced by going RB,WR,RB,WR,RB of course that depending on the flow of the draft. But in the mochs I've been in this year so far I've ended up taking RB,WR,RB,RB,WR. The RB value left in the 4th is just too good to ignore, and there seems to be plenty of WR 2 talent left in the 5th. This might be caused by the small difference in value between WR 14 and WR23 this year.

It all depends on your player rankings. My rankings usually only differ slightly from the average, but this year it seems in some cases it has varied as much as 12 spots. So I guess I'll either have a great draft this year, or I'm way off base, hehe

one thing to keep in mind:

regardless of the quality of the opposition, there will always be a handful of picks that will be 'off the board' and you will shake your head right after the pick is announced.... Even in high end drafts you will get this happening now & again, so dont always count on the best players all going first.

at least one or two of the players you project will be available will be gone, and at least one or two you figure will be gone, will still be around when you pick in the 5th.

You probably know this, but I always expect this, and am rarely disappointed.

so when putting in a Mock, having good people making the picks is important, but you need at least one or two people who go against the grain with certain picks. Makes the draft more realistic.

Ray_T said:

one thing to keep in mind:regardless of the quality of the opposition, there will always be a handful of picks that will be 'off the board' and you will shake your head right after the pick is announced.... Even in high end drafts you will get this happening now & again, so dont always count on the best players all going first.at least one or two of the players you project will be available will be gone, and at least one or two you figure will be gone, will still be around when you pick in the 5th.You probably know this, but I always expect this, and am rarely disappointed.so when putting in a Mock, having good people making the picks is important, but you need at least one or two people who go against the grain with certain picks. Makes the draft more realistic.

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When I mock my league's draft, I use three lists -- my list, a standardized one for most of the league, and one 'screwball' list for 1 or 2 owners that do unusual things like go WR-WR-WR-QB early or take kickers and defense rounds before the rest of the league.

My strategy is roughly the same.

I get the 1st pick overall but our 12 team non-ppr league does 3rd round reversal.

1st pick(1) = Peterson

2nd pick (24) = if WR -Bowie or Boldin if RB - Pierre Thomas, Grant or Ronnie Brown

I don't want a QB here but what if Brees, Brady or Manning were still available?

3rd pick (36) = if WR- Houshmandzadeh, Ochocinco, Welker if RB- McFadden, Moreno, LJ, Ward

4th pick (37) = if WR- Houshmandzadeh, Ochocinco, Welker if RB- McFadden, Moreno, LJ, Ward

Romo, Rivers & Rogers are QB's in these rounds but Rogers is a keeper & not avail

while I don't like Romo or Rivers this year

5TH PICK (60) yes... this is where it gets wierd...

if no QB maybe a take Palmer, McNabb or Schaub- I don't have a 6th round pick

so my 7th round pick is 84th overall & I think all 3 QB's will be gone and will be

stuck with Cutler, Cassel or Hasselbeck whom I'm not thrilled about.

what would you do here ?

I agree, the 5th round is where you start to either set your team up to dominate or you could lose a lot of ground.

FWIW, my currently ongoing dynasty draft - 16 teams, 2 QB, 2-3 RBs, up to 6 WRs can start...

Round 5

1 - Team Snoogans - Lee Evans l WR l BUF l ? Years

2 - Nashville Sounds - Joe Flacco | QB | BAL | 5 Years

3 - Canadian Mounties - Matt Cassell | QB | KC | 5 Years

4 - S.D. Heat - Rashard Mendenhall | RB | PIT | 5 Years

5 - CL Ski 12 - Terrell Owens | WR | BUF | 3 Years

6 - Dayton Triangles - Anthony Gonzalez | WR | IND | 5 Years

7 - Columbus Destroyers (from CL Ski 12 via Redcliff Maple Leafs) - Joseph Addai | RB | IND | 3 Years

8 - Patsfan - PICK SKIPPED DUE TO 12-hour limit - Later Picked Trent Edwards | QB | BUF | 4 Years

9 - Al Davis' Zombies - Curtis Lofton | LB | ATL | 5 Years

10 - Krojo's Mad Cow - Derrick Ward | RB | TB | 3 Years

11 - Redcliff Maple Leafs (Via Salem Vipers) - Matt Hasselbeck l QB l SEA l 3 Years

12 - CL Ski 12 (from Columbus Destroyers) - Kyle Orton l QB l DEN l 2 Years

13 - Al Davis' Zombies (Via Manchester ManBearPigs) - Santonio Holmes | WR | PIT | 4 Years

14 - Dayton Triangle (from Nashville Sounds Via The Dawgs) - Jason Campbell | QB | WAS | 4 Years

15 - All Day Cashiers - Ray Rice | RB | BAL | 4 Years

16 - Chicago Goodfellas - Antonio Bryant | WR | TAM | 3 Years

You'll see QBs went strong here due to the 2 QB rule, but the break down IMO:

Proven Studs: 1, but he's old; TO

Proven solid players: 4; Evans, Gonzo, Hass, Campbell

Upside with some background: 8 (the rest)

Pure upside: 3; Lofton, Mendenhall, Rice

5th round in my PPR I jump on either a stud tight end or a young RB with a high ceiling. The ADPs are too low on a lot of the guys you listed...I would be salivating if I was able to select Moreno in the 5th.

RalphMouth said:

My strategy is roughly the same.

I get the 1st pick overall but our 12 team non-ppr league does 3rd round reversal.

1st pick(1) = Peterson

2nd pick (24) = if WR -Bowie or Boldin if RB - Pierre Thomas, Grant or Ronnie Brown

I don't want a QB here but what if Brees, Brady or Manning were still available?

3rd pick (36) = if WR- Houshmandzadeh, Ochocinco, Welker if RB- McFadden, Moreno, LJ, Ward

4th pick (37) = if WR- Houshmandzadeh, Ochocinco, Welker if RB- McFadden, Moreno, LJ, Ward

Romo, Rivers & Rogers are QB's in these rounds but Rogers is a keeper & not avail

while I don't like Romo or Rivers this year

5TH PICK (60) yes... this is where it gets wierd...

if no QB maybe a take Palmer, McNabb or Schaub- I don't have a 6th round pick

so my 7th round pick is 84th overall & I think all 3 QB's will be gone and will be

stuck with Cutler, Cassel or Hasselbeck whom I'm not thrilled about.

what would you do here ?

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I think one of the biggest mistakes you can make is to draft one of the mid-tier QB1s too early (Rounds 4-6).....this year it's guys like Rivers, Romo, Rodgers. If you can get Brady, Brees, or Manning at a great value that's fine, but if not I would wait and pair up a couple of lower-tier guys and play the matchups. I've had great success with this strategy. I think you'd be fine pairing up Cutler or Cassel with a guy like David Garrard. At #60 I would go with the best RB or WR on your board still.

Darko M said:

5th round in my PPR I jump on either a stud tight end or a young RB with a high ceiling. The ADPs are too low on a lot of the guys you listed...I would be salivating if I was able to select Moreno in the 5th.

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Interesting. I'm using the FBG blended ADP...but if it's not realistic, that's good to know.

i am usually that guy that goes against the grain. i have a very detailed plan about how i want to field my positions. for the record i have preped for a league where defense points are usually negative because every yard they give up counts against you, that and people love their QBs alot. so the whole idea that romo, rodgers, or rivers will be waiting for you in the 3rd, 4th, or 5th is a bad assumption. well romo might but i just do not know about him he will probably be the safety net if things go wrong. we only have to start 1 RB if we chose so i like to go with QB/WR in the 1st and 2nd RB the next pick then 4th round is a toss up between a few WRs or RBs that are left depending on the talent.

i tend to go RB in the 4th get a solid guy like larry johnson, or lendale white. which leaves me with my other receiver spot to fill. i go TE here because the value of antonio gates /gonzo compared to normally coles or edwards for me just does not compare. especially in the consistentcy and the gut feeling, plus gates/gonzo get some good D s to play against and have a good stretch for the playoffs.

it depends alot on how your league drafts and your roster requirements.

still i like to get the best receivers i can with RBs that get consistent carries liek kevin smith, ronnie brown guys who fall in that bracket. you can work their schedules better with more options at receiver, and if you are in a league where there are not as many RB slots as WR, it is almost better to do this then fill your roster with specialists (goalline, 3rd down). it has worked for me pretty well the last few years.

-jb- said:

Darko M said:

5th round in my PPR I jump on either a stud tight end or a young RB with a high ceiling. The ADPs are too low on a lot of the guys you listed...I would be salivating if I was able to select Moreno in the 5th.

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Interesting. I'm using the FBG blended ADP...but if it's not realistic, that's good to know.

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using their ADP list is fine. Probably good.just plan on a couple of players to not be close to the ADP.these things can be hard to predict, but Key things to look for would be:1) recent high profile article or news release on a player(good or bad) may cause a lot of people to under or over value a player as a knee jerk reaction because not all the info is available right away when the story breaks.2) Training camp reports. some people read em, some do not. but almost every year a newly drafted player comes into the league and has a good training camp, and suddenly everyone is on the wagon. ditto for former backups moving to other teams to become the starter. (ie. LaMont Jordan)3) if someone gets huge press on Fantasy football webistes as being undervalued in fantasy leagues, the ADP will move up Quickly(perhaps more quickly than it should)4) Major injuries. some people will ignore it and assume the player comes back 100%. Others will avoid. so these are players whose ADP may be reasonable, but they could go 10-15 picks higher or lower than that projected ADP.

Here's who I am seeing who I like who have an ADP of Round 5, 10 team leagues (and seems consisent with the mocks I have been doing in FantasyFootballCalculater.com)

QB: K. Warner/McNabb

RB: Addai, Th Jones, C. Wells

WR: B. Edwards, VJax, A. Bryant

TE: Gates

I don't LOVE any of those players. If pushed, I'd say I'd take TJones, Edwards, or Bryant, depending on positions taken in Rounds 1-4, which I would think to be WR heavy.

I would hope that one of the 4th round guys drop, and take best available:

QB: Rodgers, Rivers

RB: Lynch, Moreno, Ke Smith, Ryan Grant

WR: Marshall, Housh, Welker

TE: Witten

If none of those guys fell, I might reach on one of the 6th round guys:

QB: Romo

RB: Ward, McFadden, W. Parker, Re Bush

WR: DeShawn Jackson, S. Holmes

TE: Gonzo, Clark.

Either way, who falls, or doesn't fall, to the 5th round will dictate my QB/TE plan, which really alters the possible ways my draft can go. If one of those 4th round RBs drops to 5, I take him there then start hunting for QB later.

Moreno's name is getting thrown around a lot in this area of the draft, but I have a feeling that if you draft close to the start of the season, there is no way he is going to be around.....I think there is very little chance he makes it to the 4th, let alone the 5th.....

as you were......

Antonio Gates is huge value in round 5 in a TE mandatory league. That is the one player that stands out to me.

Stinkin Ref said:

Moreno's name is getting thrown around a lot in this area of the draft, but I have a feeling that if you draft close to the start of the season, there is no way he is going to be around.....I think there is very little chance he makes it to the 4th, let alone the 5th..... as you were......

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good point. i definitely want to keep this tread active as we get closer to the season opener. it will be interesting to track the changes of this round. i still think it will be critical.