Player Spotlight: Domenik Hixon, Steve Smith & Hakeem Nicks (1 Viewer)

2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Domenik Hixon, Steve Smith & Hakeem Nicks, WRs, New York Giants

Player Page Link: Domenik Hixon Player Page

Player Page Link: Steve Smith Player Page

Player Page Link: Hakeem Nicks Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

I haven't seen many people talking about Hixon as the best fantasy option. I think he is. Finished the season with games of 6, 5, 3, 6, 4, 4 receptions. That's a small sample size to say that he'll do better than Smith, but Hixon did perform better at the end of the year (26 rec vs. 20).

If that puts Hixon in the 70+ rec range for next season he's a tremendous value. I imagine he's still not even being selected in some redrafts.

The Giant WRs are very low in ADP and 1 of them will offer very good value this year. The problem is picking which 1.

Over the last few years the downfield threat WR has had the most targets (Plax) so my first guess is whoever takes over this role. I think this would be Hixon but remember the Giants tried dealing him (and Kiwanuka) in a trade for Braylon Edwards but the Browns turned it down. The Browns wanted Smith instead of Hixon but the Giants said no to that - this tells me they like Smith to take over the possession role and that they wanted to swap Hixon for Edwards as the downfield threat.

This tells me that the Giants don't have a lot of confidence in Hixon - and then they go out and draft Nicks in the first round. Nicks is definitely going to be the future downfield threat on this team and will eventually be the #1 WR on the team.

Taking all of this into account, this year I see Smith as being the most consistent WR on the team and ending up with the most targets & receptions. I think Hixon will begin the season as a starter but will be overtaken by Nicks by the end of the season - leaving both Hixon and Nicks with less targets than Smith.

This year, take Smith. Next year, it's Nicks. IMO.

There is a definite low risk with potential high reward in drafting one of these three Giant WRs. It would be difficult to corner the market and wait to see which one rewards as there ADPs are closely grouped together, with Hixon WR42 and 126, the rookie Nicks at WR45 and 136 overall and Steve Smith the trailer at WR47 and 141 overall. I was surprised by this as I thought that Smith was the suspected favorite of the three, especially in ppr.

I favor Hixon because he performed better in the Giant 08 games without Plax. In the six games that Plax did not play (weeks 5 and 13-17) the two compared:

Steve Smith 27 targets 18 catches 199 yards 11.0 ypc and 0 TDs - with high game of 5 catches for 59 yds

Dom Hixon 53 targets 26 catches 399 yards 15.2 ypc and 2 TDs - with high game of 4 catches for 102 yds & a TD

It appeared to me watching the games that Hixon was preferred down the field and fared better. Smith actually played mostly underneath and was more often when paired with Burress. I know that we have heard off-season comments that Steve Smith was capable of playing on the outside and would get that opportunity, but I see him more in the support underneath role.

Hixon 120 targets 78 catches 922 yards 14.0 ypc and 6 TDs

Smith 90 targets 58 catches 638 yards 11.0 ypc and 4 TDs

Nicks 60 targets 36 catches 540 yards 15.0 ypc and 3 TDs

rzrback77 said:

There is a definite low risk with potential high reward in drafting one of these three Giant WRs. It would be difficult to corner the market and wait to see which one rewards as there ADPs are closely grouped together, with Hixon WR42 and 126, the rookie Nicks at WR45 and 136 overall and Steve Smith the trailer at WR47 and 141 overall. I was surprised by this as I thought that Smith was the suspected favorite of the three, especially in ppr.

I favor Hixon because he performed better in the Giant 08 games without Plax. In the six games that Plax did not play (weeks 5 and 13-17) the two compared:

Steve Smith 27 targets 18 catches 199 yards 11.0 ypc and 0 TDs - with high game of 5 catches for 59 yds

Dom Hixon 53 targets 26 catches 399 yards 15.2 ypc and 2 TDs - with high game of 4 catches for 102 yds & a TD

It appeared to me watching the games that Hixon was preferred down the field and fared better. Smith actually played mostly underneath and was more often when paired with Burress. I know that we have heard off-season comments that Steve Smith was capable of playing on the outside and would get that opportunity, but I see him more in the support underneath role.

Hixon 120 targets 78 catches 922 yards 14.0 ypc and 6 TDs

Smith 90 targets 58 catches 638 yards 11.0 ypc and 4 TDs

Nicks 60 targets 36 catches 540 yards 15.0 ypc and 3 TDs

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If you look at what I have bolded you can not go by those stats to soley get your answer. The reason is Steve Smith stayed in the slot last year all year. When they lost Burress they stuck with Toomer (flanker) and Smith (slot) in their same roles and brought Hixon (split end) into the Burress role. I am assuming this was what they felt was the least distruption for the offense and felt confident enought in the running game to carry them through. Manning's targets over the last 4 years have went from 557, 522, 529 and to only 479 last year. I think they will be around the same this up coming year as their running game is their strength.Now back to the WR situation. Smith is entrenched as the starter this year but instead of being limited to the slot role he is moving outside to play flanker and will get far more targets than last year. When the Giants line up in 3 wr sets Smith will move into the slot where he is easily Manning's favorite go to receiver for big catches to move the sticks. Smith does lack big play ability and is not your typical game changing type of WR but he is a poor man's Houshy. Smith should have an increased YPC (up from 10.1 last year) as his role won't be limited to all underneath stuff as it has been the last 2 years out of the slot. Hixon is going to be pushed all season by Nicks and he will have to perform to hang onto his starting role (if he hangs onto that starting role out of training camp). Smith on the other hand has already been named as the starter while Hixon fights it out with Nicks.

Also Reese was asked about his WR situation and the first person he answered as to who is in a tier of very good WR's and he quickly responded Smith.

I think many people are sleeping on Smith especially if you are playing in a PPR league. Smith had 57 catches last year out of the slot in a season where Manning only threw 479 balls. I think it is safe to say Eli really trusts Smith and will look to him a lot more this year as he will have an increased role.

My guess is Smith is the guy to have this year and will catch 75 on the conservative end but would not surprise me to see him get even close to 85 or 90 balls with 1050-1250 yards with 6 TD's ish.

puckalicious said:

The Giant WRs are very low in ADP and 1 of them will offer very good value this year. The problem is picking which 1.Over the last few years the downfield threat WR has had the most targets (Plax) so my first guess is whoever takes over this role. I think this would be Hixon but remember the Giants tried dealing him (and Kiwanuka) in a trade for Braylon Edwards but the Browns turned it down. The Browns wanted Smith instead of Hixon but the Giants said no to that - this tells me they like Smith to take over the possession role and that they wanted to swap Hixon for Edwards as the downfield threat.This tells me that the Giants don't have a lot of confidence in Hixon - and then they go out and draft Nicks in the first round. Nicks is definitely going to be the future downfield threat on this team and will eventually be the #1 WR on the team. Taking all of this into account, this year I see Smith as being the most consistent WR on the team and ending up with the most targets & receptions. I think Hixon will begin the season as a starter but will be overtaken by Nicks by the end of the season - leaving both Hixon and Nicks with less targets than Smith.This year, take Smith. Next year, it's Nicks. IMO.

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I'm not sure where you get your information. I am a hardcore giants fan and read the Braylothon stories every day. Never once did I hear this offer nor was there ever anything from the Giants regarding Kiwanuka. The Browns wanted Kiwanuka, the Giants were never willing to put him on the table. This analysis of the Giants WR's should be excluded from anyone's minds regarding whom they position as their #1 WR as this information seems inaccurate. If you can quote the source where this came from, I'll be happy to recant my statement.From my point of view on the Giants WR's, you have to wait and see the pre-season and hear what the coaches are saying about Nicks vs. Hixon. There are rumblings that the giants may do more with their new receiving TE and get both boss and beckum on the field <i>if</i> beckum has game. The upside for the #1 WR on the giants may be pretty low, something like 1,000 yards and 6 tds which in fantasy terms is pretty good. If I had to put money on it, that guy is Hixon. Smith will be solid but I see him being the #2 wr playing amani toomer's role. Nicks will have to come in and be dominant to beat out Hixon, that guy has earned his opportunity and has shown that he can play @ the NFL level and potentially be a star at the NFL level.There's also the potential that Hixon gets pulled in the redzone for the Giants 3rd pick, the 6'5" WR Ramses Barden. Supposedly, the guy has hands made of glue. If this happens, the Giants WR's are all but useless in FFL.

lefteye said:

puckalicious said:

The Giant WRs are very low in ADP and 1 of them will offer very good value this year. The problem is picking which 1.

Over the last few years the downfield threat WR has had the most targets (Plax) so my first guess is whoever takes over this role. I think this would be Hixon but remember the Giants tried dealing him (and Kiwanuka) in a trade for Braylon Edwards but the Browns turned it down. The Browns wanted Smith instead of Hixon but the Giants said no to that - this tells me they like Smith to take over the possession role and that they wanted to swap Hixon for Edwards as the downfield threat.

This tells me that the Giants don't have a lot of confidence in Hixon - and then they go out and draft Nicks in the first round. Nicks is definitely going to be the future downfield threat on this team and will eventually be the #1 WR on the team.

Taking all of this into account, this year I see Smith as being the most consistent WR on the team and ending up with the most targets & receptions. I think Hixon will begin the season as a starter but will be overtaken by Nicks by the end of the season - leaving both Hixon and Nicks with less targets than Smith.

This year, take Smith. Next year, it's Nicks. IMO.

Click to expand...

I'm not sure where you get your information. I am a hardcore giants fan and read the Braylothon stories every day. Never once did I hear this offer nor was there ever anything from the Giants regarding Kiwanuka. The Browns wanted Kiwanuka, the Giants were never willing to put him on the table. This analysis of the Giants WR's should be excluded from anyone's minds regarding whom they position as their #1 WR as this information seems inaccurate. If you can quote the source where this came from, I'll be happy to recant my statement.From my point of view on the Giants WR's, you have to wait and see the pre-season and hear what the coaches are saying about Nicks vs. Hixon. There are rumblings that the giants may do more with their new receiving TE and get both boss and beckum on the field <i>if</i> beckum has game. The upside for the #1 WR on the giants may be pretty low, something like 1,000 yards and 6 tds which in fantasy terms is pretty good. If I had to put money on it, that guy is Hixon. Smith will be solid but I see him being the #2 wr playing amani toomer's role. Nicks will have to come in and be dominant to beat out Hixon, that guy has earned his opportunity and has shown that he can play @ the NFL level and potentially be a star at the NFL level.

There's also the potential that Hixon gets pulled in the redzone for the Giants 3rd pick, the 6'5" WR Ramses Barden. Supposedly, the guy has hands made of glue. If this happens, the Giants WR's are all but useless in FFL.

Click to expand...

From teh googley. Ignore my comment about Kiwanuka.http://www.giantsgab.com/2009/03/22/report...raylon-edwards/

I agree with Carter-can-fly regarding Smith's attractiveness in Reception leagues as he is far-and-away the life-source of the Giants possession play (for receivers). Smith knows where the yardsticks are and he made numerous receptions on third and 6-10 yards. Outside of Reception leagues I would go with Hixon if I was going to take a flyer. Smith is a possession receiver and does not have the burners. Nicks is in his rookie year and I expect he will be the punt return specialist Nicks has the talent and will get play time, but the Giants have a pretty long history (to my weak memory) of not having stellar rookie WR development/performance. The other non-project receivers are Moss and Manningham (he is also considered by some as a project). Neither of those are expected to be much of a challenge for Hixon.

I like Smith as a WR. He was a heck of a player at USC. The problem I see for him is his ability to stay healthy. I don't predict injurires in FF...I think that is futile but his history suggests he can not handle hit after hit after hit. I don't think he makes it through 16 games.

I think Hicks can be a star rookie and I would target him over everyone else as a pure deep sleeper upside play.

Is Manningham that out of the picture? I know he has a ton of physical talent too. He may sneak up in pre-season. Any word on his progress?

Can you guys just comment on em' all? Barden and Manningham too please

Steve Smith, Hixon, Nicks, Barden, Manningham, Moss........what about David Tyree?

He tore his ACL last year and now is forgotten?

He caught not only that great pass in the super bowl, but also a TD in the biggest game of his life and was clutch.

Any chance he is healthy now and rises above all of these rookie/potential/underachieving WR's in NY?

I just can't put much faith in any of these guys.....at least not this year. The primary reason is I believe there isn't much separation amongst these guys in talent and I believe that the Giants will employ a deep rotation at the WR position this season, one that will not only include these 3 guys but also Sinorice Moss and either Barden or Tyree, or Manningham. I see a 4-5 man rotation, where all guys get significant snaps, and thus looks, and some leftover snaps/targets for the other guys at some point. Also, Beckum will get some targets as well, thus taking away more from the WR unit. I would be surprised to see a Giants WR with over 100 targets this year, and if it does happen I would expect the number to be barely at or over 100.

490 pass attempts from Manning distributed as follows...

98 targets to Steve Smith

62 rec, 695 yds, 4 TDs

92 targets to Dominik Hixon

53 rec, 810 yds, 4 TDs

67 targets to Hakeen Nicks

40 rec, 480 yds, 3 TDs

62 targets to Sinorice Moss

33 rec, 460 yds, 2 TDs

50 targets for rest of WRs

3 TDs

65 targets to TEs

5 TDs

56 targets to RBs

2 TDs

I don't see a whole lot of value in the Giants passing game this season, but if you're looking for bye-week fillers then I'd suggest Hixon first, and Smith second.

tdmills said:

Steve Smith, Hixon, Nicks, Barden, Manningham, Moss........what about David Tyree?He tore his ACL last year and now is forgotten?He caught not only that great pass in the super bowl, but also a TD in the biggest game of his life and was clutch.Any chance he is healthy now and rises above all of these rookie/potential/underachieving WR's in NY?

Click to expand...

very slimhe really wasn't ever that great a WR, he "just" made an outstanding catch.The Giants primarily have him on the roster as a special teams ace for which he has been one of the best in this current era

I noticed a decent size bump in Hixons projections? I haven't heard any recent news....Did I miss something?

Domenik Hixon is the WR1 here...correct?

This is still really murky to me.

It seems that Nicks hasn't overtaken Hixon to start with Smith... that said

between Hixon and Smith, how might it all shake out now that we're in the week before season actually kicks off....?

He didn't overtake him because he was limited during the preseason except for the last couple of weeks. I think this will be Nicks' job sooner rather than later.

My prediction by the midway point of the season:

Manningham and Nicks are the starters with Smith in the slot. Nixon probably returning kicks or something.

No stat predictions. I think this year they'll cancel each other out & none will be consistent fantasy starters.

Craig_MiamiFL said:

Manningham and Nicks are the starters with Smith in the slot. Nixon probably returning kicks or something.

Click to expand...

I actually think this is possible by the end of the season. Manningham has shown marked improvement, and Nicks should get at least a shot at more playing time. I think both are more talented than Hixon, but it'll be interesting to see if Hixon can hold them off.

Hixon is the play.

DrJamesAndrews said:

Hixon is the play.

Click to expand...

I go Nicks!Coach Tom Coughlin said he would have no problem playing a rookie. "The thing about it is, what you have to understand, it's what is earned," Coughlin said. "It is exactly what is earned and obviously last night he played well. He certainly has earned a right to be a factor."---This after last week, and with his nice score this week, I have a feelin!But I'll prob still cut him!

Forrest K. said:

Domenik Hixon is the WR1 here...correct?

Click to expand...

IMO he should be a backup WR. Both Nicks and Manningham are better than Hixon, especially Nicks. Smith belongs in the slot.

Craig_MiamiFL said:

My prediction by the midway point of the season:

Manningham and Nicks are the starters with Smith in the slot. Nixon probably returning kicks or something.

No stat predictions. I think this year they'll cancel each other out & none will be consistent fantasy starters.

Click to expand...

Nixon will be running like he covered up something.