12 team performance league with 6 pts/all TDs. Lineup gives me some wiggle room as we start QB/RB/WR/flex/flex and no TE. Here's my strategy from the 1 spot...
ADP is my guy. It's about safety and being closest to a sure thing. He isn't guaranteed to finish the season as RB1, but he's less likely than any other possible #1 pick to screw me over.
There are 15 RBs who I would consider taking at 2.12/3.1 (well, AP and 14 others: MJD, Turner, Forte, SJax, DWilliams, CJohnson, Gore, Portis, Slaton, LT, Westbrook, MB3, Jacobs and RBrown, not necessarily in that order). If any of these guys fall, I go RB/WR. If not, I go WR/WR. Either way, I should have 3 studs to start the draft. If I wind up going WR/WR at this point and being weak at RB2, I only have to start one RB.
QBs go early in my league. I wouldn't be surprised if 3 go in the first round (last year Romo went at #6 as QB3) and 3-4 more before I pick at 2.12. this makes my decision on a QB very easy: I'm gonna be one of the last owners to take a QB. The last three years in a row, I've done very well by waiting, getting "stuck" with CPalmer at 5.1, Romo at 5.9, and Cutler at 6.7, all in their breakout years. I obviously got lucky with these three picks, but the strategy (as preached by Footballguys in general and David Dodds in particular) is very sound. Find a tier of QBs who are quality starters with upside, wait until a third to a half of them are drafted, then pounce with your next pick. Concentrate on the trigger rather than the actual pick (that's why I was able to wait until the 6th round for Cutler last year, because my target QBs went off the board a little slower than usual). This year, my targets are the third tier of QBs, and it's a big group...Warner, Ryan, Cutler, Palmer, Schaub, Ben, Garrard and possibly Cassel, Orton and Hasselbeck. Usually, I'd wait until any 4 of these guys are drafted, then grab my highest ranked QB with my next pick. That's hard to do from the #1 spot because there's a good chance of getting screwed: If you pass on QB at 4.12/5.1 because none of the target QBs have been picked yet, there are still 22 picks before the next opportunity at 6.12, and there's a reasonable chance that a huge run on QBs occurs in the 5th and 6th rounds, leaving you with the likes of Pennington, Eli and Flacco. That's why I grabbed Palmer at 5.1 three years ago, even though it was a little bit of a reach. So with the two picks at 4.12 and 5.1, one will be an example of leading (taking my highest ranked QB even if it's a bit of a reach) and the other will be an example of following (taking the best value that falls to this pick at RB or WR).
At 6.12/7.1, I need to do 2 of 3 things: first, grab a dependable RB/WR to serve as my fourth starter during bye weeks; second, depending who I took as my starting QB, take a 2nd QB (hopefully one left undrafted from my target tier of QBs) who may break out and actually become my starter or at least trade bait; or third, if I hold off on a backup QB because the value has already been drafted, a high-upside RB/WR who may become this year's Slaton.
The second half of the draft is all about handcuffs, high upside, a top six or seven defense, and a kicker in the last round who plays in a dome for a high octane offense.
Naturally, there has to be a balance between having a plan, and being flexible enough to shift gears if unusual things happen during the draft, be they good or bad.
4.12 TO?5.1 Ochocino?I HATE getting stuck with a horrible TE, and Witten is such a sure thing.
4.12 TO?5.1 Ochocino?I HATE getting stuck with a horrible TE, and Witten is such a sure thing.
