pnewtonjr said:
Completely agree. He and Forte are the most overrated players in Round 1 this year.
This.As to Jackson, though, he's like a WR. His PPG is so high because he has a couple of totally explosive games every season surrounded by a ton of mediocre games. I like my RBs to be more consistant.
VERY
He scored
5 of his 7 rushing TDs in 2 games last year, with one of the 2 multiple TD games occurring in week 17 (worthless from most fantasy owner's perspectives) had only 1 receiving score, and left his fantasy owners with goose-eggs in the TD column 11 of 16 games last year (4 of them with absolute goose-eggs due to yet another series of nagging injuries). The surrounding cast in St. Louis is worse this year than last with the departure of Tory Holt, and nobody fears the QB tandem of Marc Bulger/Kyle Boller at all.Yes, Jackson is capable of making exciting big plays from time to time, but he is a marked man this year. He has a huge bulls-eye on his jersey due to being the sole game-breaking weapon that the Rams field. He'll face stacked fronts all year long unless (and I'm doubtful Bulger can do this) Bulger presents a credible threat to pass the ball with his youngster/journeyman WR corps.
Jackson had 100+ yards from scrimmage in 8 out of 11 full games last year. He had 90 yards in another. That is about as consistent as you get. TOP THREE ppg. Who did he outperform, on average, when he played?
EVERYBODY except Turner and Deangelo Williams. EVERYBODY. Peterson? Outperformed him. Gore? Slaton? LT? Westbrook? Forte? Portis? MJD? Outperformed ALL of them.
On a terrible team with not passing game and an O-line that was terrible DUE IN LARGE PART TO INJURIES.
What has changed this year? Holt was most certainly not a difference maker last year, and the passing game is not likely to be worse. Pace is gone, that is not good.... but those rookie O-linemen that bust 1/2 the time? They also DON"T bust 1/2 the time. Oh yeah, then there is the acquisition of Jason Brown, a HUGE upgrade at center. Then there is the statistical fact that teams that are snake-bitten by injuries (the Rams had something like 50% MORE starter games missed due to injury than the league average) tend to regress to the mean... so it's more likely that the Rams have fewer injuries than last year. The defense is going to improve with fewer injuries and the addition of a few good players that will allow existing talented players to play their natural positions instead of playing out of position.
They gained more in free agency than they lost in Pace and Holt. They have some good rookie prospects. This all points to an improved team, not a worse team. I'm not saying they are playoff bound, just that they are certainly not WORSE.
So is Jackson able to match last year's stats on a team that gets better, even if it is only a little better? OF COURSE.
With Jackson you get elite production when he is healthy. You DO NOT get "absolute goose-eggs" as Wimer stated when he misses games. You get whatever production your backup gets. BIG DIFFERENCE. 66 RBs had 5+ ppg. 50 had 7.35 ppg or better. You don't get zero from your backup.
I understand not wanting to draft him because you are worried about injuries. Sure, 1/2 the top 30 projected RBs are going to miss games due to injury, but Jackson has missed games two years in a row. Players get the injury prone label until they aren't injury prone, I guess. However, ALL RBs get injured, it's just a matter of when. But I understand the "logic" that other RBs are "safer" bets to stay healthy.
I understand being worried about the team being bad. But Jackson was very good last year on a terrible team. The Rams added more than they lost this offseason, so last year is roughly Jackson's floor. But I understand the theory, at least, that bad teams are less likely to produce good fantasy players.
What I don't understand is why people just don't get why other people like Jackson. YOU (the generic "you", not talking about any particular person) don't like him? Super. Other very smart people disagree with you, and the statistics back up the fact that Jackson has been very good on a very bad team. He has put up ELITE production in the absolute worst of situations.
Imagine if the Rams are 10% better.... or 20% better.... imagine if they have the league average in injuries, or *GASP* fewer than the league average... imagine that the #2 pick in the draft is *GASP* actually a good player.... imagine that the defense is better with more talent than last year and a defensive minded head coach...
Now imagine that Jackson only misses *GASP* 2 games.... he goes from very good to very VERY good. ELITE, even.
Now imagine Jackson doesn't miss any games. MONSTER.
Are all of these things going to come to pass? Not likely. What if NONE of them come to pass? Well, we get last year's production, #13 overall but #3 in ppg.
You can count the number of RBs with Jackson's ceiling on one hand.
Why is this guy still considered a 1st/2nd round pick?
SERIOUSLY????
SJax is the Ocho Cinco of RBs.
SJax is the Ocho Cinco of RBs.
Why are you yelling? You're a foot from me.
Why are you yelling? You're a foot from me.
He scored 
'Brickashaw Ferguson(solid), Davin Joseph(solid), Nick Mangold(solid) both Jets lineman paved the way for that great running attack last year.
