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We're no longer a few days away from the subscriber contest (1 Viewer)

Doug Drinen

Doug Drinen

Footballguy
Moderator
As those of you who closely followed last year's subscriber contest thread know, no one --- NO ONE --- is a bigger contest geek than I am. I love contests with off-the-beaten path rules that provide for nuanced strategy.

So Joe and David gave me permission to cook up what I call the "just-for-fun FBG contest area." No prizes for now, just a place for contest nerds to compete with each other. I don't want to make too many grand promises, but I hope this will eventually become a place where we run multiple contests per week of different kinds, track overall leaders, let you banter among yourselves, and so forth.

It's not there yet. But for now, I do have one type of contest programmed and am ready to have you guys try it out. In the absence of any football activity, I have resorted to using Monday's baseball games as the contest fodder.

Here are the rules

Enter here, if you're into that kind of thing

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Doug Drinen said:
As those of you who closely followed last year's subscriber contest thread know, no one --- NO ONE --- is a bigger contest geek than I am. I love contests with off-the-beaten path rules that provide for nuanced strategy.

So Joe and David gave me permission to cook up what I call the "just-for-fun FBG contest area." No prizes for now, just a place for contest nerds to compete with each other. I don't want to make too many grand promises, but I hope this will eventually become a place where we run multiple contests per week of different kinds, track overall leaders, let you banter among yourselves, and so forth.

It's not there yet. But for now, I do have one type of contest programmed and am ready to have you guys try it out. In the absence of any football activity, I have resorted to using Monday's baseball games as the contest fodder.

Here are the rules

Enter here, if you're into that kind of thing
Click to expand...
Prop bets... gotta love it. :yes:
 
Doug Drinen said:
As those of you who closely followed last year's subscriber contest thread know, no one --- NO ONE --- is a bigger contest geek than I am. I love contests with off-the-beaten path rules that provide for nuanced strategy.

So Joe and David gave me permission to cook up what I call the "just-for-fun FBG contest area." No prizes for now, just a place for contest nerds to compete with each other. I don't want to make too many grand promises, but I hope this will eventually become a place where we run multiple contests per week of different kinds, track overall leaders, let you banter among yourselves, and so forth.

It's not there yet. But for now, I do have one type of contest programmed and am ready to have you guys try it out. In the absence of any football activity, I have resorted to using Monday's baseball games as the contest fodder.

Here are the rules

Enter here, if you're into that kind of thing
Click to expand...
I like it, although I really have no interest in making prop bets on baseball. Roll this out during football season, OTOH, and I'm in.Re: the subscriber contest, how many days is a few?

 
Doug Drinen said:
So Joe and David gave me permission to cook up what I call the "just-for-fun FBG contest area." No prizes for now, just a place for contest nerds to compete with each other.
Click to expand...
:mellow: heaven. haha!
 
abrecher said:
This looks a bit like the late, lamented ProbabilityFootball.com, except with prop bets instead of games.
Click to expand...
Never heard of it. Did they have the same scoring system? [...checking....]Looks like same entry procedure, but different scoring system. Still cool. What happened to it?Anyway, if things go according to plan, there will be other kinds of contests as well.
 
Quick bump in case anyone else wants to help me test out my programs on this thing.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Doug Drinen said:
Quick bump in case anyone else wants to help me test out my programs on this thing.
Click to expand...
You are saying for tonight that someone will have at least 4 hits. Does that mean someone has to have 5 hits for this thing to be proven true? Or should it read, "Someone will have 4 or more hits?" Same on the saves...
 
I was too dumb to realize that some of things were already resolved before the entry deadline. That's what I get for not paying attention to Royals/Rays.

The main page should now be showing you a link to the standings.

 
Looks like fun. I suggest a prop bet of "If one person was to put a flat 50 for all prop bets for the entire contest, they would finish in the top 10%."

 
Grid71 said:
Looks like fun. I suggest a prop bet of "If one person was to put a flat 50 for all prop bets for the entire contest, they would finish in the top 10%."
Click to expand...
Mathematically, you only need to hit about 56% of your 60s, about 61% of your 70s, and about 67% of your 80s in order to finish ahead of a guy who goes 50 every time.So I don't think that strategy is solid in most cases. But its success will depend on the individual contest. If the contest has a lot of close-to-50% questions, then that strategy might finish in the top half. But if the true probability of the questions has a broader range (such as it would in, say, a straight-up pick 'em of a week's worth of NFL games), then I think 50 guy would finish in the bottom quartile every time. But I don't know, which is why this is interesting IMO.
 
Doug Drinen said:
Grid71 said:
Looks like fun. I suggest a prop bet of "If one person was to put a flat 50 for all prop bets for the entire contest, they would finish in the top 10%."
Click to expand...
Mathematically, you only need to hit about 56% of your 60s, about 61% of your 70s, and about 67% of your 80s in order to finish ahead of a guy who goes 50 every time.So I don't think that strategy is solid in most cases. But its success will depend on the individual contest. If the contest has a lot of close-to-50% questions, then that strategy might finish in the top half. But if the true probability of the questions has a broader range (such as it would in, say, a straight-up pick 'em of a week's worth of NFL games), then I think 50 guy would finish in the bottom quartile every time. But I don't know, which is why this is interesting IMO.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't actually pick 50 each time. That wouldn't be fun, but the big upset only has to happen once to cripple your score.
 
Grid71 said:
Doug Drinen said:
Grid71 said:
Looks like fun. I suggest a prop bet of "If one person was to put a flat 50 for all prop bets for the entire contest, they would finish in the top 10%."
Click to expand...
Mathematically, you only need to hit about 56% of your 60s, about 61% of your 70s, and about 67% of your 80s in order to finish ahead of a guy who goes 50 every time.So I don't think that strategy is solid in most cases. But its success will depend on the individual contest. If the contest has a lot of close-to-50% questions, then that strategy might finish in the top half. But if the true probability of the questions has a broader range (such as it would in, say, a straight-up pick 'em of a week's worth of NFL games), then I think 50 guy would finish in the bottom quartile every time. But I don't know, which is why this is interesting IMO.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't actually pick 50 each time. That wouldn't be fun, but the big upset only has to happen once to cripple your score.
Click to expand...
I just noticed that somebody did do all 50s in this current baseball contest. Entry number 873196.
 
Doug Drinen said:
Grid71 said:
Doug Drinen said:
Grid71 said:
Looks like fun. I suggest a prop bet of "If one person was to put a flat 50 for all prop bets for the entire contest, they would finish in the top 10%."
Click to expand...
Mathematically, you only need to hit about 56% of your 60s, about 61% of your 70s, and about 67% of your 80s in order to finish ahead of a guy who goes 50 every time.So I don't think that strategy is solid in most cases. But its success will depend on the individual contest. If the contest has a lot of close-to-50% questions, then that strategy might finish in the top half. But if the true probability of the questions has a broader range (such as it would in, say, a straight-up pick 'em of a week's worth of NFL games), then I think 50 guy would finish in the bottom quartile every time. But I don't know, which is why this is interesting IMO.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't actually pick 50 each time. That wouldn't be fun, but the big upset only has to happen once to cripple your score.
Click to expand...
I just noticed that somebody did do all 50s in this current baseball contest. Entry number 873196.
Click to expand...
LOL. I guess my post was HONDA.
 
Let me try to put together another one for tonight's baseball games. Maybe I'll head over to the baseball forum and see if I can drum up some interest there.

Notes on the first contest:

1. I won! Which proves that anyone can. Because I don't follow baseball very closely.

2. "50-man" finished 6th of 35 entries. Because....

3. As a group, we did not do very well. Of the things that happened, we collectively estimated their probability at 52%. Of the things that didn't happen, we estimated 53%.

 
This is a great contest and I have entered today's, but it is no substitute for changing my Subscriber Contest team 17 times a day for a month straight! :lmao:

 
Doug Drinen said:
As those of you who closely followed last year's subscriber contest thread know, no one --- NO ONE --- is a bigger contest geek than I am. I love contests with off-the-beaten path rules that provide for nuanced strategy.

So Joe and David gave me permission to cook up what I call the "just-for-fun FBG contest area." No prizes for now, just a place for contest nerds to compete with each other. I don't want to make too many grand promises, but I hope this will eventually become a place where we run multiple contests per week of different kinds, track overall leaders, let you banter among yourselves, and so forth.

It's not there yet. But for now, I do have one type of contest programmed and am ready to have you guys try it out. In the absence of any football activity, I have resorted to using Monday's baseball games as the contest fodder.

Here are the rules

Enter here, if you're into that kind of thing
Click to expand...
How the heck did I miss this!?!?!Awesome, awesome, stuff, Turk!

-QG

 
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