THINGS YOU MIGHT NOT THINK HEADING INTO 2009 (1 Viewer)

Here are just a few tidbits of the things that I'm predicting as the 2009 season is closely approaching. These are not casual thoughts/opinions, they are formed positions and stances that I'm willing to ride with based on what I've gathered after considerable evaluation.....

1. Steve Slaton will outperform Chris Johnson over the next 3-4 years.....yes, so this does apply to dynasty. I have Slaton rated above Chris Johnson, ever so slightly, and believe that it will be close, but final production will tilt in the favor of Slaton over the next few years, beginning in '09.

2. At least 75% of these RBs will be replaced by the end of 2010 as the lead dog on their respective NFL teams. They will either bust, decline sharply, or be overtaken by better talent......Ryan Grant, Marion Barber, Joseph Addai, Derrick Ward, Clinton Portis, Willie Parker, Cedric Benson, Brian Westbrook, Pierre Thomas, Larry Johnson, LaDanian Tomlinson, and Kevin Smith

3. The #1 Fantasy QB over the next 3-4 seasons will not be Tom Brady or Peyton Manning

4. QBs like Pat White, Mike Vick, Tim Tebow, and the "Chosen One" will quite possibly change the game as we see it today, or should I say "revolutionize" the position of QB, at least modify and/or expand the current traditional QB role over the next few years.

And last but not least, I've analyzed both players and thought about it quite long enough to go ahead and make the call ahead of the curve,

5. Josh Morgan > Michael Crabtree.

Yes, the period means period....Redraft, dynasty, whatever. Morgan will simply be a better player. Attitude, work ethic, and internal makeup will be factors here. And by all means, please stay asleep on the kid's talent......I'm not referring to draft pick #10

on point 4) disagree. that style of qb may work for some schemes but they will never replace the need for a Brees or Brady or Manning.

NEVER.

kremenull said:

Here are just a few tidbits of the things that I'm predicting as the 2009 season is closely approaching. These are not casual thoughts/opinions, they are formed positions and stances that I'm willing to ride with based on what I've gathered after considerable evaluation.....1. Steve Slaton will outperform Chris Johnson over the next 3-4 years.....yes, so this does apply to dynasty. I have Slaton rated above Chris Johnson, ever so slightly, and believe that it will be close, but final production will tilt in the favor of Slaton over the next few years, beginning in '09. 2. At least 75% of these RBs will be replaced by the end of 2010 as the lead dog on their respective NFL teams. They will either bust, decline sharply, or be overtaken by better talent......Ryan Grant, Marion Barber, Joseph Addai, Derrick Ward, Clinton Portis, Willie Parker, Cedric Benson, Brian Westbrook, Pierre Thomas, Larry Johnson, LaDanian Tomlinson, and Kevin Smith3. The #1 Fantasy QB over the next 3-4 seasons will not be Tom Brady or Peyton Manning4. QBs like Pat White, Mike Vick, Tim Tebow, and the "Chosen One" will quite possibly change the game as we see it today, or should I say "revolutionize" the position of QB, at least modify and/or expand the current traditional QB role over the next few years.And last but not least, I've analyzed both players and thought about it quite long enough to go ahead and make the call ahead of the curve, but 5. Josh Morgan > Michael Crabtree.Yes, the period means period....Redraft, dynasty, whatever. Morgan will simply be a better player. Attitude, work ethic, and internal makeup will be factors here. And by all means, please stay asleep on the kid's talent......I'm not referring to draft pick #10

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1) Agree2) Agree....but not really going out on a limb pick the oldest or least talented athletically starting RBs.3) Disagree4) Who is the chosen one.....and wasn't Mike Vick going to do this already? No it won't change b/c those guys can't take the beating.5) Nope.....maybe this year but not long term. Earning two WR of the Year awards in college is unreal....for a freshman and sophomore.

I agree with everything, with the possible exception of #4. What i mean by possibly is i can see them becoing part of QBBC, which i am suprised has not happened by now in the NFL. Not sure what you meant by revolutionize, but thats the only scenario which i can see them being a part of any revolution.

As far as #2, i would say the % would be closer to 100 if you take away Kevin Smith.

two_dollars said:

on point 4) disagree. that style of qb may work for some schemes but they will never replace the need for a Brees or Brady or Manning.NEVER.

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I'm not saying that there will be a total replacement of your traditional style QB, but there will be an alternative to this style. And once at least one of these players makes it "big-time", i.e., either wins big and/or dominates such that he makes his team a contender almost solely based on his play (Vick practically did this already), you will see more than just one or two teams employ this.So yeah, I don't mean replacement of the traditional QB in every situation.

kremenull said:

two_dollars said:

on point 4) disagree. that style of qb may work for some schemes but they will never replace the need for a Brees or Brady or Manning.NEVER.

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I'm not saying that there will be a total replacement of your traditional style QB, but there will be an alternative to this style. And once at least one of these players makes it "big-time", i.e., either wins big and/or dominates such that he makes his team a contender almost solely based on his play (Vick practically did this already), you will see more than just one or two teams employ this.So yeah, I don't mean replacement of the traditional QB in every situation.

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The big risk here for teams is that they would have to carry a roster spot for this guy. Most teams only carry 2 QB's anymore. So now they take away a key backup or ST guy for a gimmick player? Or do they carry only two QB's with one classic passer and one wildcat? What if an injury happens in the last example?

1) Agree

2) Agree....but not really going out on a limb pick the oldest or least talented athletically starting RBs.

3) Disagree

4) Who is the chosen one.....and wasn't Mike Vick going to do this already? No it won't change b/c those guys can't take the beating.

5) Nope.....maybe this year but not long term. Earning two WR of the Year awards in college is unreal....for a freshman and sophomore.

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Wasn't looking to go out on a limb, just stating what I thinkThe "Chosen One" would be Terrelle Pryor. He will give beatings not take them. And dodge them as well. And throw over/around them as well. Kid will be unreal after 2 more seasons in college. Will be the best QB prospect in the last, I dunno, EVER!

Yeah, I know, sounds ludicrous.......right now.

tdmills said:

kremenull said:

two_dollars said:

on point 4) disagree. that style of qb may work for some schemes but they will never replace the need for a Brees or Brady or Manning.NEVER.

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I'm not saying that there will be a total replacement of your traditional style QB, but there will be an alternative to this style. And once at least one of these players makes it "big-time", i.e., either wins big and/or dominates such that he makes his team a contender almost solely based on his play (Vick practically did this already), you will see more than just one or two teams employ this.So yeah, I don't mean replacement of the traditional QB in every situation.

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The big risk here for teams is that they would have to carry a roster spot for this guy. Most teams only carry 2 QB's anymore. So now they take away a key backup or ST guy for a gimmick player? Or do they carry only two QB's with one classic passer and one wildcat? What if an injury happens in the last example?

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Either your #2 QB or a guy like Pat White could be used as a 4th/5th WR and the "gimmick" QB.

Yes, people would have to take on dual roles, possibly a special teams slot or backup wr/rb as well for it to be "efficient"

For the record, i think it would be a huge advantage for teams to use a QBBC. I always wondered why teams havnt already done this. I thought Vick would have been perfect for this situation. Imagine what an opposing teams defensive coordinator would be going through while trying to prepare for a QBBC with guys like Vick and a traditional pocket QB. Just trying to get the right personnel on the field pending which QB was in would be heII. The Wildcat was a step in that direction, but just imagine how effective it would have been if Ronnie Brown could throw and they didnt have to use Pennington as a WR.

Burning Sensation said:

For the record, i think it would be a huge advantage for teams to use a QBBC. I always wondered why teams havnt already done this. I thought Vick would have been perfect for this situation. Imagine what an opposing teams defensive coordinator would be going through while trying to prepare for a QBBC with guys like Vick and a traditional pocket QB. Just trying to get the right personnel on the field pending which QB was in would be heII. The Wildcat was a step in that direction, but just imagine how effective it would have been if Ronnie Brown could throw and they didnt have to use Pennington as a WR.

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See Baltimore last season sneaking in Troy Smith.If they use him more...they could be very exciting. Flacco and Smith in there...Smith in at WR...Smith as 2nd RB in a 2 RB formation with Rice and Flacco at QB...Act like Flacco is hurt but instead of running all the way off he lines up out wide...then motions to shotgun while Smith splits wide...So many possibilities

I'd go a lot higher than 75% on #2.

And, I disagree with #1 (But I hope you are right, as I just took Slaton in a draft)

Burning Sensation said:

For the record, i think it would be a huge advantage for teams to use a QBBC. I always wondered why teams havnt already done this. I thought Vick would have been perfect for this situation. Imagine what an opposing teams defensive coordinator would be going through while trying to prepare for a QBBC with guys like Vick and a traditional pocket QB. Just trying to get the right personnel on the field pending which QB was in would be heII. The Wildcat was a step in that direction, but just imagine how effective it would have been if Ronnie Brown could throw and they didnt have to use Pennington as a WR.

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Only way this would work in the long term would be if you had a very co-hesive & veteran O-line. It takes a while for an o-line to get used to a QBs cadence and tendencies. If you start running QBs in & out all the time, I believe you would have increased procedure penalties &/or lag coming off the ball.

Burning Sensation said:

For the record, i think it would be a huge advantage for teams to use a QBBC. I always wondered why teams havnt already done this. I thought Vick would have been perfect for this situation. Imagine what an opposing teams defensive coordinator would be going through while trying to prepare for a QBBC with guys like Vick and a traditional pocket QB. Just trying to get the right personnel on the field pending which QB was in would be heII. The Wildcat was a step in that direction, but just imagine how effective it would have been if Ronnie Brown could throw and they didnt have to use Pennington as a WR.

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I, too, thought about this a few years back when ATL had Vick and Schaub...I played ice hockey through college and it s a game of constant change (not unlike Basket Ball)...throw a "banger out there and follow up with a finese guy to clean up"...but the NFL does not work that way with QBs (they do with with RBs, like Thunder and Lightning and it is darn effective). Why not QBs? I have no clue, but the fact that things like the Wilcat and wishbone exist, makes me think it has to do with rythym and other things I cannot understand at the QB position. It would be a nightmare (in the common fan's thinking) for their defense to have to decide scheme, personnel, etc. if ATL (or any team at that matter) threw two totally different QB styles every other series in a game at them, yet no one has tried it.

Great post. I agree pretty much across the board except for Pierre and Kev. Smith in #2 and Morgan over Crabtree. I believe they have the ability to develop into one of the better WR duos in 2-3 years but Crabtree will be the man. Simply more talented. Would gladly be wrong though! I have Morgan stashed on my developmental.

Steel Dillo said:

Burning Sensation said:

For the record, i think it would be a huge advantage for teams to use a QBBC. I always wondered why teams havnt already done this. I thought Vick would have been perfect for this situation. Imagine what an opposing teams defensive coordinator would be going through while trying to prepare for a QBBC with guys like Vick and a traditional pocket QB. Just trying to get the right personnel on the field pending which QB was in would be heII. The Wildcat was a step in that direction, but just imagine how effective it would have been if Ronnie Brown could throw and they didnt have to use Pennington as a WR.

Click to expand...

Only way this would work in the long term would be if you had a very co-hesive & veteran O-line. It takes a while for an o-line to get used to a QBs cadence and tendencies. If you start running QBs in & out all the time, I believe you would have increased procedure penalties &/or lag coming off the ball.

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Im sure if a team practiced this, the Oline could get use to it. However, the difference in cadence could work against the defense. Either way, it is more likely to confuse the D instead of the Offense

The Gimmick-QB has been around for a little while now. The Falcons tried to run their offense solely with one, in Vick. The Steelers used them twice, once like the Falcons with Kordell Stewart and just in trick plays with Randle El. Many team over the past years have tried to use Gimmick-QBs, the QB/WR hybrids, but lacked the system to make them effective.

Well, last year, the Dolphins found the system, but lacked the Gimmick-QB to run it to perfection. If Pat White turns into that missing piece, the league will get a first hand look at a much more successful system; The Wildcat A1. Then as the league is such a copy-cat league, there will be a big influx of Gimmick-QBs placed into the Wildcat schemes teams have already started to immulate.

VonRomig said:

The Gimmick-QB has been around for a little while now. The Falcons tried to run their offense solely with one, in Vick. The Steelers used them twice, once like the Falcons with Kordell Stewart and just in trick plays with Randle El. Many team over the past years have tried to use Gimmick-QBs, the QB/WR hybrids, but lacked the system to make them effective.Well, last year, the Dolphins found the system, but lacked the Gimmick-QB to run it to perfection. If Pat White turns into that missing piece, the league will get a first hand look at a much more successful system; The Wildcat A1. Then as the league is such a copy-cat league, there will be a big influx of Gimmick-QBs placed into the Wildcat schemes teams have already started to immulate.

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I don't think you know what the word immulate means.You're looking for either "immitate" or "emulate" Definitely NOT "immulate"

VonRomig said:

The Gimmick-QB has been around for a little while now. The Falcons tried to run their offense solely with one, in Vick. The Steelers used them twice, once like the Falcons with Kordell Stewart and just in trick plays with Randle El. Many team over the past years have tried to use Gimmick-QBs, the QB/WR hybrids, but lacked the system to make them effective.Well, last year, the Dolphins found the system, but lacked the Gimmick-QB to run it to perfection. If Pat White turns into that missing piece, the league will get a first hand look at a much more successful system; The Wildcat A1. Then as the league is such a copy-cat league, there will be a big influx of Gimmick-QBs placed into the Wildcat schemes teams have already started to immulate.

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I was talking more about a full QBBC, not just something you use 4-5 times game.

chance of Tebow being a successful QB in the NFL: -5%

kremenull said:

Here are just a few tidbits of the things that I'm predicting as the 2009 season is closely approaching. These are not casual thoughts/opinions, they are formed positions and stances that I'm willing to ride with based on what I've gathered after considerable evaluation.....

1. Steve Slaton will outperform Chris Johnson over the next 3-4 years.....yes, so this does apply to dynasty. I have Slaton rated above Chris Johnson, ever so slightly, and believe that it will be close, but final production will tilt in the favor of Slaton over the next few years, beginning in '09.

2. At least 75% of these RBs will be replaced by the end of 2010 as the lead dog on their respective NFL teams. They will either bust, decline sharply, or be overtaken by better talent......Ryan Grant, Marion Barber, Joseph Addai, Derrick Ward, Clinton Portis, Willie Parker, Cedric Benson, Brian Westbrook, Pierre Thomas, Larry Johnson, LaDanian Tomlinson, and Kevin Smith

3. The #1 Fantasy QB over the next 3-4 seasons will not be Tom Brady or Peyton Manning

4. QBs like Pat White, Mike Vick, Tim Tebow, and the "Chosen One" will quite possibly change the game as we see it today, or should I say "revolutionize" the position of QB, at least modify and/or expand the current traditional QB role over the next few years.

And last but not least, I've analyzed both players and thought about it quite long enough to go ahead and make the call ahead of the curve,

5. Josh Morgan > Michael Crabtree.

Yes, the period means period....Redraft, dynasty, whatever. Morgan will simply be a better player. Attitude, work ethic, and internal makeup will be factors here. And by all means, please stay asleep on the kid's talent......I'm not referring to draft pick #10

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Not that I disagree totally but I'm assuming you see them drafting someone next year cause they have no one on their roster that can replace him currently.

Blackjacks said:

kremenull said:

Here are just a few tidbits of the things that I'm predicting as the 2009 season is closely approaching. These are not casual thoughts/opinions, they are formed positions and stances that I'm willing to ride with based on what I've gathered after considerable evaluation.....

1. Steve Slaton will outperform Chris Johnson over the next 3-4 years.....yes, so this does apply to dynasty. I have Slaton rated above Chris Johnson, ever so slightly, and believe that it will be close, but final production will tilt in the favor of Slaton over the next few years, beginning in '09.

2. At least 75% of these RBs will be replaced by the end of 2010 as the lead dog on their respective NFL teams. They will either bust, decline sharply, or be overtaken by better talent......Ryan Grant, Marion Barber, Joseph Addai, Derrick Ward, Clinton Portis, Willie Parker, Cedric Benson, Brian Westbrook, Pierre Thomas, Larry Johnson, LaDanian Tomlinson, and Kevin Smith

3. The #1 Fantasy QB over the next 3-4 seasons will not be Tom Brady or Peyton Manning

4. QBs like Pat White, Mike Vick, Tim Tebow, and the "Chosen One" will quite possibly change the game as we see it today, or should I say "revolutionize" the position of QB, at least modify and/or expand the current traditional QB role over the next few years.

And last but not least, I've analyzed both players and thought about it quite long enough to go ahead and make the call ahead of the curve,

5. Josh Morgan > Michael Crabtree.

Yes, the period means period....Redraft, dynasty, whatever. Morgan will simply be a better player. Attitude, work ethic, and internal makeup will be factors here. And by all means, please stay asleep on the kid's talent......I'm not referring to draft pick #10

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Not that I disagree totally but I'm assuming you see them drafting someone next year cause they have no one on their roster that can replace him currently.

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Yes, I believe they will draft a RB......With the xx Pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, the Redskins select Jahvid Best!......

Burning Sensation said:

VonRomig said:

The Gimmick-QB has been around for a little while now. The Falcons tried to run their offense solely with one, in Vick. The Steelers used them twice, once like the Falcons with Kordell Stewart and just in trick plays with Randle El. Many team over the past years have tried to use Gimmick-QBs, the QB/WR hybrids, but lacked the system to make them effective.Well, last year, the Dolphins found the system, but lacked the Gimmick-QB to run it to perfection. If Pat White turns into that missing piece, the league will get a first hand look at a much more successful system; The Wildcat A1. Then as the league is such a copy-cat league, there will be a big influx of Gimmick-QBs placed into the Wildcat schemes teams have already started to immulate.

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I was talking more about a full QBBC, not just something you use 4-5 times game.

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Yes, I can possibly see the QBBC as well on the horizon. Would certainly not rule it out, but I also believe that some of these guys will be full-time starters in the Pros. Don't count out Pat White as being the starter in Miami at some point in the next 2-3 years. Mike Vick and/or Tebow as well. But Pryor will undoubtedly be a franchise QB, the #1 pick of the draft whenever he decides to enter the NFL, most likely in 2011. Point is, these aren't simply gimmick QBs, they are simply QBs.

kremenull said:

3. The #1 Fantasy QB over the next 3-4 seasons will not be Tom Brady or Peyton Manning

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I like this.

Not necessarily because I agree with them, although I agree with a lot of them, but because I like that you are taking a stand and sometimes going against the grain and conventional wisdom.

Anyway, I'm curious who you do see and the #1 Fantasy QB over the next 3-4 seasons?

Nice thread, I like a lot of this line of thinking.

The only one I really disagree with is Crabtree/Morgan. I've watched Crabtree a lot and really believe this guy is an enormous talent. The only thing that is going to stop him from becoming a bona fide stud is himself (which appears to be happening right now). Morgan may outproduce Crabtree this season (probably will), but I think in terms of talent it's not even close.

Good stuff though!

kremenull said:

1) Agree

2) Agree....but not really going out on a limb pick the oldest or least talented athletically starting RBs.

3) Disagree

4) Who is the chosen one.....and wasn't Mike Vick going to do this already? No it won't change b/c those guys can't take the beating.

5) Nope.....maybe this year but not long term. Earning two WR of the Year awards in college is unreal....for a freshman and sophomore.

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Wasn't looking to go out on a limb, just stating what I thinkThe "Chosen One" would be Terrelle Pryor. He will give beatings not take them. And dodge them as well. And throw over/around them as well. Kid will be unreal after 2 more seasons in college. Will be the best QB prospect in the last, I dunno, EVER!

Yeah, I know, sounds ludicrous.......right now.

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Point 4 is off... super athlete QBs wont change the game.Case in point regarding Pryor ..... Anyone coming out of high school and the college as a superstar bluechip QB gets the "unreal" tag. But Pryor is really no different than any of the other multi-faceted studs. And for arguments sake, concerning the college level, Pryor is probably not any better than Tommy Frazier was at Nebraska 10 years ago. And if he does anything close to what Frazier did concerning big plays, bowl appearances, and production, he still may not be a pro bowl type NFL QB. This doesn't mean that Pryor isn't a much better NFL prospect right now due to passing than Tommy Frazier, nor that he won't make it as a starter one day in the NFL. But these guys need a lot more than athleticism and highlight reel plays to be successful.

Three of of today's best players, Drew Brees, McNabb and Tom Brady, they didnt' get any headlines i.e. "Chosen One." but they are the best.

finito said:

Nice thread, I like a lot of this line of thinking.

The only one I really disagree with is Crabtree/Morgan. I've watched Crabtree a lot and really believe this guy is an enormous talent. The only thing that is going to stop him from becoming a bona fide stud is himself (which appears to be happening right now). Morgan may outproduce Crabtree this season (probably will), but I think in terms of talent it's not even close.

Good stuff though!

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Here's where there is a misconception, or simply that the word is just not out yet. In terms of natural ability, it is very close, and I'm actually not so sure that Morgan isn't more talented, physically. But they are certainly on at least a similar level athletically. I'm not so sure where you reside, but I am in the Bay Area and although not a 49ers fan, I follow all of their news through the local media as well as following their training camps and preseasons over the years. And games, too, but it is in these practices and preseasons where you kind of get a feel for who is really being elevated through the eyes of the coaching staff. And I've seen it myself, so I'm only going to state it once here, Morgan is the REAL DEAL. But another part of this whole comparison and where I believe Crabtree is really going to screw up, it comes down to attitude. This kid Morgan is a very hard-working, taking nothing for granted, driven, and humble player. I've gathered quite a bit of insight on this kid from a couple of interviews I read on him last year, and the kid "gets it". Right now, Crabtree has a whole lot to figure out just to get on par professionally with Morgan. And back to the original point, most people are just assuming that Crabtree will walk in the door and his talent will be so far superior that he'll vault past Morgan, that this is just a given. I say, not so fast.....Actually, I'm saying, it ain't happening!

Never underestimate the internal fire and drive of players who want to succeed at the ultimate level of competition....It's no longer about draft position and collegiate resume at this point, it's who wants it more.

gregjcross said:

kremenull said:

1) Agree

2) Agree....but not really going out on a limb pick the oldest or least talented athletically starting RBs.

3) Disagree

4) Who is the chosen one.....and wasn't Mike Vick going to do this already? No it won't change b/c those guys can't take the beating.

5) Nope.....maybe this year but not long term. Earning two WR of the Year awards in college is unreal....for a freshman and sophomore.

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Wasn't looking to go out on a limb, just stating what I thinkThe "Chosen One" would be Terrelle Pryor. He will give beatings not take them. And dodge them as well. And throw over/around them as well. Kid will be unreal after 2 more seasons in college. Will be the best QB prospect in the last, I dunno, EVER!

Yeah, I know, sounds ludicrous.......right now.

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Point 4 is off... super athlete QBs wont change the game.Case in point regarding Pryor ..... Anyone coming out of high school and the college as a superstar bluechip QB gets the "unreal" tag. But Pryor is really no different than any of the other multi-faceted studs. And for arguments sake, concerning the college level, Pryor is probably not any better than Tommy Frazier was at Nebraska 10 years ago. And if he does anything close to what Frazier did concerning big plays, bowl appearances, and production, he still may not be a pro bowl type NFL QB. This doesn't mean that Pryor isn't a much better NFL prospect right now due to passing than Tommy Frazier, nor that he won't make it as a starter one day in the NFL. But these guys need a lot more than athleticism and highlight reel plays to be successful.

Three of of today's best players, Drew Brees, McNabb and Tom Brady, they didnt' get any headlines i.e. "Chosen One." but they are the best.

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Good feedback. But how are you so sure that Point 4 is off when you are seeing some of the best NFL minds (Parcells, Belichick, and others) realize the importance of these players? Since when would have Pat White been drafted in the 2nd Rd? Since you recall the Tommie Fraziers of the world, how many super-athletic QBs could have been chosen well before Mike Vick was finally selected high in the draft? So many I don't even want to start. Well, to combat the speed of the defenses, which are more faster overall than offenses, smart coaches have realized that the one position that hasn't been adequately neutralized by defenses when it comes to accounting for their speed, it's the QB position. Why is this so? The QB position is the one position where he always has "open space". You hear this phrase about getting playmakers out into "open space". Yeah, it's not usually that easy to do as defenses have looked to close the gap on allowing open space for RBs, WRs, and TEs. But with the QB, you simply can't do this without incurring huge risks. Try sending heavy blitzes against the likes of Mike Vick on a routine basis to close off his "open space". If the blitz doesn't get there and he breaks containment, which players of his ilk can, and often do, then your defense is in peril for giving up a big play......possibly, a game-changing play. These QBs are everywhere in college these days, and could easily become valuable commodities to NFL teams in the next few years.Now to quickly fast-forward to Pryor, for whom I don't believe people understand how good this kid already is, and how much better he will be in the next couple of years. This kid is so unlike Tommie Frazier, I wouldn't even try to compare Pryor to him. The better comparison for Pryor will be Randall Cunningham like athlete (speed, athleticism), but with Culpepper size/strength....Now that is just the physical specimen part, so picture the best size and best athleticism for that size you've ever seen. Now, don't think he is not a passer. The kid has all the tools as strictly a passer to be like a Favre, Brady, Elway, whoever you want to name. Remember, this kid didn't even have a spring practice before his freshmen year and still connected on over 60% of his throws.......don't get caught up in the athleticism part and the lower number of attempts, watch the kid's natural throwing ability and arm. Working on mechanics is all about repetition and coaching, and there is no doubt that a QB coach will be thrilled to work with such a natural like this, as his upside is just downright scary. Really, it's only just a matter of repetitions here, nothing else. From what I've heard, seen, and read from his offseason work this spring (heading into his Soph yr), the kid id destined for superstardom.....at both the collegiate and NFL level. From what I've seen, I have no doubt. This kid will be a supreme QB who happens to be uber athletic, not just an athleitic QB, big difference in projection here. At this point, sure that's all it is, but I'm certain that there will be others in higher positions of importance than I, who will bank on this guy when all is said and done in a couple of years. I'm just getting the wagon ready. I'm not sure that most OSU homers realize what they really have. They better be hyping him up big-time for the Heisman right now......

#4 is the one I don't think will happen. I think it's too difficult to find a good QB let alone one that can run and pass. If Cunningham didn't create a change towards the running/passing QB I don't think the guys you mentioned have a shot.

QBBC I doubt will happen. When your good passer was in, the play could be a pass or a run (just not by the QB). When your running QB is in it's probably a run or a short high percentage pass. You'd run into cap problems if you tried to have two really good QB's like what Vick was getting paid before his legal trouble and a Brees Type. The QB's wouldn't be too happy either. As i recall things were pretty prickly for a while when Montana and Young were in SF.

I also think the timing and rhythm of the offense changes a lot from QB to QB. The way the ball is snapped, hand offs, the speed, loft and rotation of the ball on passes, how deep and quickly the QB gets back into his drop impacts the movement of the o-line. Seems like the risk for fumbles and other errors would go up significantly.

QBBC by two mediocre QB's didn't work in the past. I think it was 1992 when Dan Reeves tried QBBC with Tommy Maddox and Shawn Moore and as i recall it was really ugly.

netnalp said:

#4 is the one I don't think will happen. I think it's too difficult to find a good QB let alone one that can run and pass. If Cunningham didn't create a change towards the running/passing QB I don't think the guys you mentioned have a shot. QBBC I doubt will happen. When your good passer was in, the play could be a pass or a run (just not by the QB). When your running QB is in it's probably a run or a short high percentage pass. You'd run into cap problems if you tried to have two really good QB's like what Vick was getting paid before his legal trouble and a Brees Type. The QB's wouldn't be too happy either. As i recall things were pretty prickly for a while when Montana and Young were in SF. I also think the timing and rhythm of the offense changes a lot from QB to QB. The way the ball is snapped, hand offs, the speed, loft and rotation of the ball on passes, how deep and quickly the QB gets back into his drop impacts the movement of the o-line. Seems like the risk for fumbles and other errors would go up significantly. QBBC by two mediocre QB's didn't work in the past. I think it was 1992 when Dan Reeves tried QBBC with Tommy Maddox and Shawn Moore and as i recall it was really ugly.

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Well, when you take out the egos it all depends on how bad guys want to win. I would have loved to see Young come in for several series' a game as a change of pace QB. Imagine how many more points and yardage the 49ers would've gained. Word is that G.B. is looking into signing Mike Vick, and I have no doubts they recall how he went into the vaunted Lambeau Field and was the first opposing QB to lead his team to victory there in the playoffs. Why? Because he was a matchup nightmare for them. Now if they sign Vick, will it be a QBBC in G.B.? No, but he will get some snaps at QB, how much is anybody's guess right now. But whoever signs this guy would be foolish not to get him in the game at the QB spot during a portion of the game. Do you realize how off-balance a defense will be if/when this happens?

Choke said:

kremenull said:

The "Chosen One" would be Terrelle Pryor. He will give beatings not take them. And dodge them as well. And throw over/around them as well. Kid will be unreal after 2 more seasons in college. Will be the best QB prospect in the last, I dunno, EVER!

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:X

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I don't like Pryor...but that face can ony mean you havent seen him play. He is simply incredible.

A slash type player that lines up all over the field, maybe throws a pass or two in the game on a gimmick play I can see that being popular.

I doubt we'll ever see a true QBBC where you have a true pocket guy and a true runner and/or a rotation where one QB takes 25 snaps and the other 15 or so (I'm not sure on avrg. how many offensive snaps there are).

I agree that running QBs are likely the wave of the future for a lot of teams. Obviously a QB like Brady/Manning will always be massively valuable but the natural progression towards more passes and more spread formations means more DBs on the field and more blitzes by the defense leaving more running lanes for the QB (and having a running QB allows for 5 WR sets with running a running threat still or 4 wr with a blocking TE/FB specialist and still a running threat). There have been more running QBs recently than a lot of people give credit for. SF had two of them in Young and Garcia. While neither was a 500 yards a season back they also both had to wait till they were older (30 and 29) before they got full time starting gigs and missed what was likely their rushing peak. Still Young was a HOFer who had 4 400+ yard seasons and 43 career rushing TDs and Garcia was 4 time pro bowler who had 3 300+ yard rushing seasons and 26 career rushing TDs (to date). Cunningham and McNabb, Vick and Vince Young- I think this is a transition phase as more running QBs will be given opportunities and will be developed more to their strengths.

Edit: also Culpepper who had 5 straight 400 + yard rushing seasons and 29 rushing TDs before he blew out his knee.

I imagine escapability and being able to pass on the run being sought after traits but i can't imagine teams want to risk injuring their franchise QB by running them alot like Vick did. The game is getting more passer friendly, I think that favors Elway, Farve, Big Ben types not the Vick and Vince young types. My opinion is that a big reason RBBC is getting popular is teams want to prolong the careers of RBs. They don't want to spend so much on a guy that comes in at age 22 and is on the decline at 29. Pocket QB's can play well till mid to late 30's. Running your QB will shorten their career.

Also, I'd be cognizant of the new collective bargaining agreement, and more specifically, how it relates to a rookie salary (cap) structure. Given the fact that teams currently have to pay ungodly amounts of "cheddar" to top picks, often QBs, then of course, they will go out of their way to safely protect their huge investment. But say, for instance, a rookie salary structure is put in place where you are getting guys at pretty much entry-level type wages (similar to the NBA) compared to the rest of the league, or even if we say it is at an avg of the league, then teams might not be so guarded or protective of a so-called franchise QB. Now, it becomes, how do I put forth our best chances of winning games, and hopefully championships under these new guidelines.

Well, I could easily see a team choosing to acquire multiple QBs, with varying talents to varying degrees. Why? The investment will be much less across the board, for all of your incoming rookies, and thus, you'll have more money to apply towards players at other positions who are already proven players (like WR, RBs, and OLs, Defensive players). And with the QB position, it would then become a question of getting the most out of the QB position given a finite amount of $$$ allocated for the position. This is a scenario where QBBC could very well be implemented.

Just speculation, but hey, good dialogue and interesting thoughts from all.

The change that I see that is happening is towards more athletic TEs. With the passing game opening up, rather than risk your QB on draws and option plays, TEs that can block and get those RAC yards are what teams are looking for, how deep TE has gotten lends merit to this.

Burning Sensation said:

For the record, i think it would be a huge advantage for teams to use a QBBC. I always wondered why teams havnt already done this. I thought Vick would have been perfect for this situation. Imagine what an opposing teams defensive coordinator would be going through while trying to prepare for a QBBC with guys like Vick and a traditional pocket QB. Just trying to get the right personnel on the field pending which QB was in would be heII. The Wildcat was a step in that direction, but just imagine how effective it would have been if Ronnie Brown could throw and they didnt have to use Pennington as a WR.

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Current NFL rules make it difficult to bring innovation to the QB position. Remember a QB is not an eligible receiver if he lines up under center. The #3 QB does not count against the 45 man gameday roster, but if you bring him in before the fourth quarter you cannot bring #1 OR #2 back into the game at any position.

dwarfboy said:

Burning Sensation said:

For the record, i think it would be a huge advantage for teams to use a QBBC. I always wondered why teams havnt already done this. I thought Vick would have been perfect for this situation. Imagine what an opposing teams defensive coordinator would be going through while trying to prepare for a QBBC with guys like Vick and a traditional pocket QB. Just trying to get the right personnel on the field pending which QB was in would be heII. The Wildcat was a step in that direction, but just imagine how effective it would have been if Ronnie Brown could throw and they didnt have to use Pennington as a WR.

Click to expand...

Current NFL rules make it difficult to bring innovation to the QB position. Remember a QB is not an eligible receiver if he lines up under center. The #3 QB does not count against the 45 man gameday roster, but if you bring him in before the fourth quarter you cannot bring #1 OR #2 back into the game at any position.

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My understanding is that rule is an allowance, not a mandate. A team can have 45 active members PLUS a third QB that can be activated during the game- which then deactivates the #1 and #2 RBs. A team can just have a 3rd QB, or list Pat White as a receiver.

tdmills said:

4) Who is the chosen one.....and wasn't Mike Vick going to do this already? No it won't change b/c those guys can't take the beating.

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Tim Tebow can't take a beating? If he had the letters "RB" next to his name instead of "QB", the scouting report on him would read "ideal body-type to shoulder a 350+ carry workload"... but because he's a QB, suddenly he'll be unable to handle a 100-150 carry workload?

kremenull said:

The "Chosen One" would be Terrelle Pryor. He will give beatings not take them. And dodge them as well. And throw over/around them as well. Kid will be unreal after 2 more seasons in college. Will be the best QB prospect in the last, I dunno, EVER!

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You can't call Pryor "The Chosen One" because
I personally think it's the weakest prediction of the bunch. Here's a prediction- neither the first nor the second player drafted in any given season will finish with the highest VBD total in that season. Tiger Woods will NOT win his next golf tournament, and the #1 ranked team in the preseason is not going to walk away with the Lombardi Trophy this year. All of those picks might SEEM like they're going against the grain, but statistically speaking, those are all "safe picks" (i.e. they have a far greater than 50% chance of happening). It'd be ballsier to say that Brady WILL be the #1 QB over the next 3 years than it would be to say that he won't.

The reason the Wildcat worked is because nobody prepared for it. It will be a flash in the pan. There is no sound reason to take your best qb out & let a RB take the snaps. Think about it.

Please, also try to understand that the people in the NFL have long considered the possibility of a running QB. None of us knows more than they do. The reason QBs don't run is because they get killed. Then, you're down to #2 or #3. Not worth it.

I personally think it's the weakest prediction of the bunch. Here's a prediction- neither the first nor the second player drafted in any given season will finish with the highest VBD total in that season. Tiger Woods will NOT win his next golf tournament, and the #1 ranked team in the preseason is not going to walk away with the Lombardi Trophy this year. All of those picks might SEEM like they're going against the grain, but statistically speaking, those are all "safe picks" (i.e. they have a far greater than 50% chance of happening). It'd be ballsier to say that Brady WILL be the #1 QB over the next 3 years than it would be to say that he won't.

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I see what you're getting at, but I'm also not biting. I put this prediction out how I wanted to put it out.

The reason the Wildcat worked is because nobody prepared for it. It will be a flash in the pan. There is no sound reason to take your best qb out & let a RB take the snaps. Think about it.

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This is not true. I posted an explanation on why the wildcat works last year- a brief summary. The weakest point in any run defense is the outside- there is a ton of space and there is a CB there- the teams likely worst tackler. The wildcat starts with 2 mismatches. First the CB- typically 5'10 and built for speed has a QB- typically about 6'2 or larger and 220 lbs+ ready to throw a block (for less athletic QBs this mismatch is limited to non existant, for some QBs this can be a v v good matchup). Second is the RB in motion. He comes from one side to the other as the ball is being snapped- because he is moving prior to the snap he has a 1-2 step extra advantage on the linebackers who are waiting to see if he gets the ball or not. That extra step pits a CB with a larger blocker on him against the RB with pursuit a step or two behind their usual speed on a normal outside running play. The linebackers either have to stay put and give that advantage to the RB if he gets the ball- or move early. Moving early opens up running lanes up the middle- which get covered by the other LBs which open up lanes to the other side. Long story short the wildcat attacks the weakest part of the defense effectively and gives the offense an advantage on running plays because of it.

With the right personnel, coaching and play calling i can see the Wildcat being effective. Some teams will try it but not being good at it will abandon it. Where it goes depends on how well the Dolphins develop it. They ran the scheme best last year in my opinion. White is important to add a passing threat. We'll have to see if White can provide the twist that makes the wildcat effective against Baltimore which showed that team speed and gap control was able to counter the Dolphins wildcat plays.

daveR said:

The reason the Wildcat worked is because nobody prepared for it. It will be a flash in the pan. There is no sound reason to take your best qb out & let a RB take the snaps. Think about it.

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Alright, let's think about it.Let's say I've thought about it, and decided that a running play is the best option in a given situation. If I draw up a traditional running play, there will be 1 guy carrying the ball, 1 guy taking the snap and handing the ball off, and 9 guys blocking. The defense will have 11 tacklers, so tacklers will outnumber defenders 11 to 9. Now, if I draw up a Wildcat running play, I have 1 guy taking the snap and carrying the ball, and 10 guys blocking. The defense's personnel advantage is reduced to an 11 on 10. That seems like a sound reason to take my best QB out and let an RB take the snaps to me. In order to get the equivalent effect while leaving my best QB on the field, I'd have to trot 12 men on offense. Would you say that having what amounts to an extra offensive player on the field is a sound reason to run a play?Think about it.

kremenull said:

I see what you're getting at, but I'm also not biting. I put this prediction out how I wanted to put it out.

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I'm not saying you should reverse your stance, I'm saying that the thread title is "THINGS YOU MIGHT NOT THINK HEADING INTO 2009", when in reality, that projection is something that every rational person on the planet should think heading into 2009. If you wanted to make a projection that I might not think, why not try naming 1 or 2 QBs who you believe *WILL* lead the NFL in fantasy points over that span.

SSOG said:

kremenull said:

I see what you're getting at, but I'm also not biting. I put this prediction out how I wanted to put it out.

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I'm not saying you should reverse your stance, I'm saying that the thread title is "THINGS YOU MIGHT NOT THINK HEADING INTO 2009", when in reality, that projection is something that every rational person on the planet should think heading into 2009. If you wanted to make a projection that I might not think, why not try naming 1 or 2 QBs who you believe *WILL* lead the NFL in fantasy points over that span.

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Yeah, is nitpicking truly your favorite sport? I wasn't even thinking that you were trying to get me to reverse my stance. I replied like that because I'm not listing who my projected players are in this thread......

There are many people who appear to be thinking that Brady will lead the league in fantasy points over this period as I see him as the first QB off the board in many recent dynasty drafts.....Why else would these irrational people select him as the first QB off the board if they didn't believe he would score the most ff points over the next few seasons? Maybe they expect him to score the most ff points this season, would that be your answer?.......

Choke said:

Instinctive said:

Choke said:

kremenull said:

The "Chosen One" would be Terrelle Pryor. He will give beatings not take them. And dodge them as well. And throw over/around them as well. Kid will be unreal after 2 more seasons in college. Will be the best QB prospect in the last, I dunno, EVER!

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I don't like Pryor...but that face can ony mean you havent seen him play. He is simply incredible.

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Ive seen him play. If I hadnt I wouldnt comment.I know he is a great runner... and a great college football talent.

But his game completions consist only of 4, 7, 10, 8, 13, 10, 7, 16, 9, 6, and 5.

This does nothing for me when it comes to the pro game.

And watching him read, react and throw supercede anything a stat box would say - and it wasnt what I wanted in a pro QB.

He has talent.

In fact - his talent and skill set make Montana and Brady look like football peons. But I prefer want a quarterback, not an athlete.

Maybe he will improve a lot this year in that regards. He certainly could. But he said "best QB prospect ever" and Im not buying that at all.

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Did you also take note of the FACT that he took over the starting QB gig for a nationally ranked powerhouse from a major conference as a TRUE FROSH WITHOUT SPRING PRACTICE?....The kid went straight from H.S. to a college gridiron. Maybe that had a lot to do with his rawness, kid managed to get by on pure ability last year and not much prep.Please don't toss out selective numbers when you are talking about an 18-19 year old QB. At this point, it's the skill set that matters most, not eye-popping statistics. But if you would like to focus on numbers, then focus on the important numbers in this case. That would be the following....

146.5....Passing efficiency (led the Big 10)

60.6...completion pct (very good)

7.9.....YPA (super)

3/1....TD/int ratio (excellent)

8-2......W-L

All this kid needs is reps, and some good QB coaching. Those are the easy things to put in place. The established part is the kid's god-given talent and skill set. Just like when Calvin came into the league, no one likes to use the word ever, but there are times if it fits, then wear it.....It's called a projection, most people go by what they see at this moment, not what they project to see in a few years, that's why what I do is called player evaluation. I'm not a reactor, I'm a projector. One is easy to do, I choose the harder route...and what I put in print is what I believe, otherwise, I'd hold it back.

Pryor, barring major injury or some dramatic, unforeseen change of events, will be the #1 draft pick when he decides to enter the draft (possibly 2 years away).......Yes, I'm projecting that he will be the #1 QB prospect to come along in quite some time, and yeah, possibly ever.

kremenull said:

There are many people who appear to be thinking that Brady will lead the league in fantasy points over this period as I see him as the first QB off the board in many recent dynasty drafts.....Why else would these irrational people select him as the first QB off the board if they didn't believe he would score the most ff points over the next few seasons? Maybe they expect him to score the most ff points this season, would that be your answer?.......

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Seriously? People might take Brady as the first QB because they think he's the MOST LIKELY QUARTERBACK to lead the league in FP over the next 3 seasons. That doesn't mean they're taking Brady because they think the MOST LIKELY SCENARIO is that he leads the league in FP over the next 3 seasons. Don't see the distinction? Let me break it down for you.Let's say that I believe there's a 20% chance that Brady leads the league in FP over the next three season. Say I put Manning's odds at 18%, Brees at 15%, Rivers at 12%, Cutler and Rodgers each at 10%, Roethlisberger and Warner each at 5%, and estimate a 5% chance that someone else (Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, Trent Edwards, even Tarvaris Jackson) manages to pull off the feat.Now, in that hypothetical situation, Brady is clearly ranked as the #1 QB on my board, and Manning is equally clearly the #2 guy. There's no way I'd take Jay Cutler over either, for instance. Still, despite the fact that I think Brady and Manning are the two most likely QBs to lead the league in fantasy points, I think it's almost twice as likely that someone other than those two will actually wind up pulling it off. Basically, you're saying that it's more likely that Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler, Ben Roethlisberger, Kurt Warner, Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, Mark Sanchez, Matt Stafford, Matt Leinart, Vince Young, Kerry Collins, Kyle Orton, Joe Flacco, Sage Rosenfels, or any other QB in the entire NFL (and even QBs who haven't even made it to the NFL yet) will lead the league in fantasy points. That's not a bold prediction- all you need is for one out of hundreds of NFL players to beat Brady and Manning. Two injuries are all it would take to guarantee you a win, while it would take over a hundred injuries to guarantee you a loss. If you narrowed the list down to 2 or 3 names, then it would be a bold or counter-intuitive prediction, but as it stands? Any rational human being, if they were at Vegas being given even odds on whether Brady/Manning or "the field" would lead the league in FPs over the next three years, would put their money on "the field".Now, if you don't want to post your picks to lead the league over that span, that's your prerogative, I'm simply saying that your projection, as written, would be better served in a thread titled "things you almost certainly think heading into 2009".By the way, this whole phenomenon (that an individual entity can be the MOST LIKELY to accomplish a feat yet still not be LIKELY to accomplish the feat) is the same thing that allows me to say that I have the Steelers ranked as the #1 team in my power rankings, yet still think they won't win the superbowl.

SSOG said:

kremenull said:

There are many people who appear to be thinking that Brady will lead the league in fantasy points over this period as I see him as the first QB off the board in many recent dynasty drafts.....Why else would these irrational people select him as the first QB off the board if they didn't believe he would score the most ff points over the next few seasons? Maybe they expect him to score the most ff points this season, would that be your answer?.......

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Seriously? People might take Brady as the first QB because they think he's the MOST LIKELY QUARTERBACK to lead the league in FP over the next 3 seasons. That doesn't mean they're taking Brady because they think the MOST LIKELY SCENARIO is that he leads the league in FP over the next 3 seasons. Don't see the distinction? Let me break it down for you.Let's say that I believe there's a 20% chance that Brady leads the league in FP over the next three season. Say I put Manning's odds at 18%, Brees at 15%, Rivers at 12%, Cutler and Rodgers each at 10%, Roethlisberger and Warner each at 5%, and estimate a 5% chance that someone else (Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, Trent Edwards, even Tarvaris Jackson) manages to pull off the feat.Now, in that hypothetical situation, Brady is clearly ranked as the #1 QB on my board, and Manning is equally clearly the #2 guy. There's no way I'd take Jay Cutler over either, for instance. Still, despite the fact that I think Brady and Manning are the two most likely QBs to lead the league in fantasy points, I think it's almost twice as likely that someone other than those two will actually wind up pulling it off. Basically, you're saying that it's more likely that Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler, Ben Roethlisberger, Kurt Warner, Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, Mark Sanchez, Matt Stafford, Matt Leinart, Vince Young, Kerry Collins, Kyle Orton, Joe Flacco, Sage Rosenfels, or any other QB in the entire NFL (and even QBs who haven't even made it to the NFL yet) will lead the league in fantasy points. That's not a bold prediction- all you need is for one out of hundreds of NFL players to beat Brady and Manning. Two injuries are all it would take to guarantee you a win, while it would take over a hundred injuries to guarantee you a loss. If you narrowed the list down to 2 or 3 names, then it would be a bold or counter-intuitive prediction, but as it stands? Any rational human being, if they were at Vegas being given even odds on whether Brady/Manning or "the field" would lead the league in FPs over the next three years, would put their money on "the field".Now, if you don't want to post your picks to lead the league over that span, that's your prerogative, I'm simply saying that your projection, as written, would be better served in a thread titled "things you almost certainly think heading into 2009".By the way, this whole phenomenon (that an individual entity can be the MOST LIKELY to accomplish a feat yet still not be LIKELY to accomplish the feat) is the same thing that allows me to say that I have the Steelers ranked as the #1 team in my power rankings, yet still think they won't win the superbowl.

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The first QB I take off the board, if all QBs are still available on the board, is the guy I believe has the best chance to score the most points over the next few years. Yes, I BELIEVE this, otherwise, I take someone else. Who cares about percentages, odds, or whatever of it actually happening and whether it is unlikely or likely, you, I, or anyone else is taking the QB we'd believe is giving the most reward (points)....Simple Dude, please take something for this condition of yours. You're overanalyzing the simplest of things. I'm not going to keep going in circles with you, luckily, I've got extra time on my hands of late but geeeeeez, you take things a bit too literal. You feeling alright?.....

kremenull said:

SSOG said:

kremenull said:

There are many people who appear to be thinking that Brady will lead the league in fantasy points over this period as I see him as the first QB off the board in many recent dynasty drafts.....Why else would these irrational people select him as the first QB off the board if they didn't believe he would score the most ff points over the next few seasons? Maybe they expect him to score the most ff points this season, would that be your answer?.......

Click to expand...

Seriously? People might take Brady as the first QB because they think he's the MOST LIKELY QUARTERBACK to lead the league in FP over the next 3 seasons. That doesn't mean they're taking Brady because they think the MOST LIKELY SCENARIO is that he leads the league in FP over the next 3 seasons. Don't see the distinction? Let me break it down for you.Let's say that I believe there's a 20% chance that Brady leads the league in FP over the next three season. Say I put Manning's odds at 18%, Brees at 15%, Rivers at 12%, Cutler and Rodgers each at 10%, Roethlisberger and Warner each at 5%, and estimate a 5% chance that someone else (Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, Trent Edwards, even Tarvaris Jackson) manages to pull off the feat.Now, in that hypothetical situation, Brady is clearly ranked as the #1 QB on my board, and Manning is equally clearly the #2 guy. There's no way I'd take Jay Cutler over either, for instance. Still, despite the fact that I think Brady and Manning are the two most likely QBs to lead the league in fantasy points, I think it's almost twice as likely that someone other than those two will actually wind up pulling it off. Basically, you're saying that it's more likely that Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler, Ben Roethlisberger, Kurt Warner, Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, Mark Sanchez, Matt Stafford, Matt Leinart, Vince Young, Kerry Collins, Kyle Orton, Joe Flacco, Sage Rosenfels, or any other QB in the entire NFL (and even QBs who haven't even made it to the NFL yet) will lead the league in fantasy points. That's not a bold prediction- all you need is for one out of hundreds of NFL players to beat Brady and Manning. Two injuries are all it would take to guarantee you a win, while it would take over a hundred injuries to guarantee you a loss. If you narrowed the list down to 2 or 3 names, then it would be a bold or counter-intuitive prediction, but as it stands? Any rational human being, if they were at Vegas being given even odds on whether Brady/Manning or "the field" would lead the league in FPs over the next three years, would put their money on "the field".Now, if you don't want to post your picks to lead the league over that span, that's your prerogative, I'm simply saying that your projection, as written, would be better served in a thread titled "things you almost certainly think heading into 2009".By the way, this whole phenomenon (that an individual entity can be the MOST LIKELY to accomplish a feat yet still not be LIKELY to accomplish the feat) is the same thing that allows me to say that I have the Steelers ranked as the #1 team in my power rankings, yet still think they won't win the superbowl.

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The first QB I take off the board, if all QBs are still available on the board, is the guy I believe has the best chance to score the most points over the next few years. Yes, I BELIEVE this, otherwise, I take someone else. Who cares about percentages, odds, or whatever of it actually happening and whether it is unlikely or likely, you, I, or anyone else is taking the QB we'd believe is giving the most reward (points)....Simple Dude, please take something for this condition of yours. You're overanalyzing the simplest of things. I'm not going to keep going in circles with you, luckily, I've got extra time on my hands of late but geeeeeez, you take things a bit too literal. You feeling alright?.....

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DUDE, he's not crazy, you are just being stubborn or dense - I can't tell which. He gave you an EXCELLENT explanation of why your "prediction" is not "out of the box" or anything that your thread title implies. He was trying to help you and he was being very respectful doing it. YOU are the one who needs to lighten up and MAYBE actually read what he is saying.

Im curious why you have Ward, Thomas, and Smith on your list of soon to be busts on #2.