karmarooster
Footballguy
in 2007, Roethlisberger threw 32 touchdowns on only 404 pass attempts, meaning he threw a TD every 12.6 pass attempts. I remember reading that he was unlikely to duplicate such success on so few attempts. Sure enough, in 2008, Big Ben fell back to a more typical year of 17 touchdowns.
in 2008, Phillip Rivers threw 34 touchdowns on only 478 attempts, giving him a TD every 14 attempts. Many people consider Rivers to be one of the next great QBs, and he's usually valued around QB5 with or just below Aaron Rodgers. But are Rivers numbers too good to duplicate? To give you some perspective, Peyton Manning has the following career totals: 5960 pass attempts, 333 touchdowns, TD every 17.9 attempts.
now, there are some key differences between Big Ben and Rivers... I would say that Rivers has better targets in VJax and Gates, throw in Chambers and Floyd, plus LT and Sproles out of the backfield. Compare this to Holmes, Ward, Sweed, Heath Miller, and a group of average to below pass catching RBs (except for MeMo).
Defense plays an important role, too. I can't help but thinking that San Diego's defense will improve somewhat this year with Lights Out coming back. Last year may have been a perfect storm for Rivers with a leaky defense and a somewhat ineffective running game.
Here are some good posts from the Phillip Rivers spotlight:
Big Ben 2007 - 7.9%
Rivers 2008 - 7.1%
Manning career - 5.5%
Brady career - 5.3%
Brees career - 4.6%Just Win Baby, i know you are #1 in the Rivers fan club. But 30 TDs on 500 attempts is still 6%, an excellent number. Don't these numbers have to come down more? Something more reasonable would be 27 or 28 TDs on 500 attempts, around 5.4%-5.6%.
Does anyone else see Rivers back in that solidly vanilla 25-28 TD range instead of in the 30+ club?
I guess what i'm getting at is do you consider Rivers to be at the bottom end of the Tier 1 QBs with Brady, Brees, Manning, and Rodgers, or is he at the top of the Tier 2 QBs with McNabb, Warner, Schaub and Romo?
in 2008, Phillip Rivers threw 34 touchdowns on only 478 attempts, giving him a TD every 14 attempts. Many people consider Rivers to be one of the next great QBs, and he's usually valued around QB5 with or just below Aaron Rodgers. But are Rivers numbers too good to duplicate? To give you some perspective, Peyton Manning has the following career totals: 5960 pass attempts, 333 touchdowns, TD every 17.9 attempts.
now, there are some key differences between Big Ben and Rivers... I would say that Rivers has better targets in VJax and Gates, throw in Chambers and Floyd, plus LT and Sproles out of the backfield. Compare this to Holmes, Ward, Sweed, Heath Miller, and a group of average to below pass catching RBs (except for MeMo).
Defense plays an important role, too. I can't help but thinking that San Diego's defense will improve somewhat this year with Lights Out coming back. Last year may have been a perfect storm for Rivers with a leaky defense and a somewhat ineffective running game.
Here are some good posts from the Phillip Rivers spotlight:
Here there's a different ratio - a TD% (labelled as TDs/attempt).
Big Ben 2007 - 7.9%
Rivers 2008 - 7.1%
Manning career - 5.5%
Brady career - 5.3%
Brees career - 4.6%Just Win Baby, i know you are #1 in the Rivers fan club. But 30 TDs on 500 attempts is still 6%, an excellent number. Don't these numbers have to come down more? Something more reasonable would be 27 or 28 TDs on 500 attempts, around 5.4%-5.6%.
Does anyone else see Rivers back in that solidly vanilla 25-28 TD range instead of in the 30+ club?
I guess what i'm getting at is do you consider Rivers to be at the bottom end of the Tier 1 QBs with Brady, Brees, Manning, and Rodgers, or is he at the top of the Tier 2 QBs with McNabb, Warner, Schaub and Romo?
He has two games against Oakland, four games against the NFC East (with the Giants, Redskins and Eagles all looking very tough against the pass), and @Cleveland, not an easy game. And that's in addition to the brutal games against Pittsburgh and Baltimore, and the Tennessee game won't be easy, either.Rivers has one of the toughest schedules in the league this year.
