After being a "Gold Tier" LB choice that I picked up in my draft, I'm wondering if I should drop him for a better option off the waiver wire. Are the poor numbers a result of something that I'm not seing? Against Jacksonville, with all the running that MJD did, I would expect better than 4-2 tackles.
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What is happening with DeMeco Ryans? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter JET2344
- Start date
Team ROFLCOPTERS
Footballguy
Well, he's regressed alot over the last 2 years. He's pretty much only good for tackles and he doesn't seem to be around the ball much anymore.
thatguy
Footballguy
I'm very surprised by his lackluster output to date because in preseason he was all over the field... I think he logged almost 10 solos in one half Vs. Denver and looked incredible doing so. No idea what's going on as I haven't been seen any Houston games so far, but I would think he's still a hold. Still, very disappointed because in preseason he looked to be back in '06 form.
Part of the answer might be Brian Cushing. IIRC, he didn't play much in preseason because of an injury. But he has put up 5-3, 7-3 and 2-6. Those aren't huge numbers, but some of those might have gone to Ryans. I am just guessing here, as I haven't had a chance to watch any Houston games. Any other thoughts?
MJD was either stopped at or near the line of scrimmage, or he busted through to the third level. The Texans DL actually held up really well in the first half. Ryans still looks great. Patience will be rewarded here.
Should I eschew the patience since I could replace him with a waiver pickup of guys like:Curtis LoftonDJ WilliamsThomas DavisStephen CooperMike PetersonDavid HarrisLance BriggsLauranitisJustin Durant
FrostBite
Footballguy
I've watched the games and I think you're right. Cushing is getting to the ball and taking some tackles away from him. In the preseason Ryans was flying around and was very instinctive on where the ball was going. He'd plug holes, avoid blocks and make great plays.Now it almost looks like he's trying not to make a mistake. He's not hitting the holes as much and he's getting blocked more. He's just not flying around. Cushing is that guy now. As a Ryans owner I hope that changes.MDPapi said:
ninerfanatic492000
Footballguy
i don't think the addition of basically another LB'er(Pollard) into the lineup will help Demeco's cause. i'm sure Kubiak didn't sign and insert Pollard so fast into the lineup to have him stay back when their run defense is on pace for epic badness.
editor47
Footballguy
Five guys that are probably worth being on your roster.
It was mediocre. I'm giving up on him.
It's actually not Cushing. Cushing's tackle numbers aren't spectacular in any way.
Anthony Borbely
Footballguy
The entire Texans defense only had 34 solo tackles. The Raiders didn't have the ball enough for any single player to put up big tackle numbers. Be patient.
good point and I agree!
coolnerd
Footballguy
and it really was not even the number of plays but the number of incomplete passes...57 plays with 21 incomlete passes (33 attempts minus 12 completes), so 21/57 plays ended up with no tackle results.
jsharlan
Footballguy
I take it you havent seen the Texan linebacker core in the last few years.
I have had Demeco on my team for 3 years now. Yes his numbers have gone down and here are the reasons I believe.
1. The team has gotten better all around the line and lbs, also the offense has gotten better holding on to the ball and scoring points forcing other teams to pass which causes less tackles for ryans being the man in the middle cushing and diles cover the short passes.
2. He is getting to the ball but not first when it goes to the outside so his tackle assits are higher then they have been.
If you are a houston fan then you want ryans numbers down if you are a fantasy fan you want them up. Numbers up the team goes 6-10 numbers down they go 9-7 or better. One things for sure you cant have your cake and eat it to. I will stick with him his ability is still top 5 linebacker.
Ruud is having the same problems.
1. The team has gotten better all around the line and lbs, also the offense has gotten better holding on to the ball and scoring points forcing other teams to pass which causes less tackles for ryans being the man in the middle cushing and diles cover the short passes.
2. He is getting to the ball but not first when it goes to the outside so his tackle assits are higher then they have been.
If you are a houston fan then you want ryans numbers down if you are a fantasy fan you want them up. Numbers up the team goes 6-10 numbers down they go 9-7 or better. One things for sure you cant have your cake and eat it to. I will stick with him his ability is still top 5 linebacker.
Ruud is having the same problems.
spartan33
Footballguy
I'm struggling with Ryans as well. The statements supporting him don't make a lot of sense to me either. I mean, if a team with a lot of talent take away stats from great LBs in a major way, how do you explain Ray-Ray, Urlacher (the 7 games a year he's healthy), Brooks, and Edwards? I'm just starting to think he's not that good.
I've got roster space, and can leave him on my Taxi Squad, but it's just KILLING me that FBGs project him as a top 15 LB every week. What are you guys seeing that I'm not?
No malice, just frustration at blowing a high pick on this guy.
I've got roster space, and can leave him on my Taxi Squad, but it's just KILLING me that FBGs project him as a top 15 LB every week. What are you guys seeing that I'm not?
No malice, just frustration at blowing a high pick on this guy.
The texans arn't a blitzing team leaving tackles for the other backers. Ray lewis is one of the best and urlacher when he is healthy but all top mlbs will give you 6 solos a game plus some with 3 or 4 assists. He has started slow but the moment I get rid of him somebody will snag him and he blows up (always happens). He is damn good all I want to know is what are they doing different now then the preseason I watched his last pre season game (I think it was the last one) He had 15 tackles in the first half yeah he was everywhere, but I also heard they were going to run a 5-2 so he can acquire more freedom and tackles stop the run and force the pass go nickle on 3rd down situations I don't know but Houston Please go to whatever makes him a beast I would be very happy with that. Now i am going to think happy thoughts and read his stats from his rookie year 
trader jake
Footballguy
I don't think patience will be consistently rewarded in Ryan's case. He's a worth weekly starter but owner's need to abandon any top 10 finish that may still be dancing in their heads.
If some of those players are still available I'd make a move.Last year wasn't an aberration...DeMeco Ryans just isn't an elite fantasy player right now. At times he still looks explosive but he just seems more willing to play it safe than he did during his rookie season and early the next year. That was almost two years ago.
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
The statistical trends aren't promising.
Firstly, RommelDAK's research from two seasons ago strongly suggests that, barring a clear reason to expect otherwise, players that are underperforming at the W4/5 mark aren't likely to rebound. Ryans isn't immune from consideration there.
Second, there are some disturbing trends in his rate stats:
. 2009 2008 2007 2006RYANS SOLO/GM 4.4 5.4 6.2 7.9TEXANS SOLO/GM 41.2 42.3 46.3 46.1RYANS % TM SOLO 10.7 12.7 13.2 17.1TACK OPP/GM 47.2 47.4 50.6 50.1DEF SNAP/GM 61.4 58.4 62.1 61.2***The box above was adjusted after further discussion showing special teams and change of possession tackles were included.Though no one felt that the 126 solo season of 2006 would be an every year deal, the trend in solos per game is a big concern. Some of it may be attributable to the decline in tackle opportunity and nagging injuries that have limited his range at times, but the decrease in his percentage of team solos is evidence of the added competition for tackles that many have noted in the thread.
However, there are some reasons to remain optimistic:
1. Ryans is still talented.
He's been on a number of stretches (usually when healthy) over the past two seasons where he's been on strong runs regardless of the opportunity issues and competition issues noted above. In particular, Ryans was on pace for nearly 120 solos through eight games in 2007 and started 2008 on a 100 solo tackle pace as well. I also think he's still passing the eyeball test on most snaps.
2. The Texan tackle opportunity and snap count numbers this year don't jive.
Snap count is where it was during the poorer Texan defensive seasons, yet the tackle opportunity is worse than ever. In fact, his last two weeks of opportunity have been brutal -- 36 against Oakland and 43 against Arizona (a game with 16 rush attempts against, fewer than the worst average in the league though five weeks) -- and he's had only one game with more than average opportunity (W1 vs TEN). There's a very reasonable argument that the tackle opportunity number is more likely to move in Ryans' favor than the snap count number. Whether he takes advantage is another issue of course.
3. Ryans' peripheral stats are reassuring.
His assisted tackle numbers project to equal those of his first three seasons. He has four TFLs and two quarterback hits. He has a FF/FR and a single PD. Those numbers suggest he's still around the ball. His primary competition for tackles -- Brian Cushing -- isn't out-tackling him (they're even at 22 solos though Cushing has six more assists).
It seems clear that Ryans can no longer be considered a clear top five linebacker and potentially not even a LB1. However, it'll be shocking if his current solo tackle pace (just 70) persists all year. Expect his numbers to pick up over the next few weeks.
Firstly, RommelDAK's research from two seasons ago strongly suggests that, barring a clear reason to expect otherwise, players that are underperforming at the W4/5 mark aren't likely to rebound. Ryans isn't immune from consideration there.
Second, there are some disturbing trends in his rate stats:
. 2009 2008 2007 2006RYANS SOLO/GM 4.4 5.4 6.2 7.9TEXANS SOLO/GM 41.2 42.3 46.3 46.1RYANS % TM SOLO 10.7 12.7 13.2 17.1TACK OPP/GM 47.2 47.4 50.6 50.1DEF SNAP/GM 61.4 58.4 62.1 61.2***The box above was adjusted after further discussion showing special teams and change of possession tackles were included.Though no one felt that the 126 solo season of 2006 would be an every year deal, the trend in solos per game is a big concern. Some of it may be attributable to the decline in tackle opportunity and nagging injuries that have limited his range at times, but the decrease in his percentage of team solos is evidence of the added competition for tackles that many have noted in the thread.
However, there are some reasons to remain optimistic:
1. Ryans is still talented.
He's been on a number of stretches (usually when healthy) over the past two seasons where he's been on strong runs regardless of the opportunity issues and competition issues noted above. In particular, Ryans was on pace for nearly 120 solos through eight games in 2007 and started 2008 on a 100 solo tackle pace as well. I also think he's still passing the eyeball test on most snaps.
2. The Texan tackle opportunity and snap count numbers this year don't jive.
Snap count is where it was during the poorer Texan defensive seasons, yet the tackle opportunity is worse than ever. In fact, his last two weeks of opportunity have been brutal -- 36 against Oakland and 43 against Arizona (a game with 16 rush attempts against, fewer than the worst average in the league though five weeks) -- and he's had only one game with more than average opportunity (W1 vs TEN). There's a very reasonable argument that the tackle opportunity number is more likely to move in Ryans' favor than the snap count number. Whether he takes advantage is another issue of course.
3. Ryans' peripheral stats are reassuring.
His assisted tackle numbers project to equal those of his first three seasons. He has four TFLs and two quarterback hits. He has a FF/FR and a single PD. Those numbers suggest he's still around the ball. His primary competition for tackles -- Brian Cushing -- isn't out-tackling him (they're even at 22 solos though Cushing has six more assists).
It seems clear that Ryans can no longer be considered a clear top five linebacker and potentially not even a LB1. However, it'll be shocking if his current solo tackle pace (just 70) persists all year. Expect his numbers to pick up over the next few weeks.
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Jene Bramel
Footballguy
He's still DeMeco Ryans. Bengals putting the Texans in a lot of nickel. Ryans cleaning up on inside runs and short passes over the middle.
Frank Costanza's Lawyer
Footballguy
Why are the solo averages greater than the tackle opportunity averages? Is it because the tackle opportunity numbers dont take kickoffs and punts into account but the solos do?
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
Great pickup. I was under the impression that the solo tackles on the team stats pages at NFL.com didn't include special teams and change of possession plays, but that looks to be untrue. Let me rework these numbers. I expect the conclusion to be about the same.
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
I think these numbers are right. Thanks again for the attention to detail.
Code:
. 2009 2008 2007 2006RYANS SOLO/GM 4.4 5.4 6.2 7.9TEXANS SOLO/GM 41.2 42.3 46.3 46.1RYANS % TM SOLO 10.7 12.7 13.2 17.1TACK OPP/GM 47.2 47.4 50.6 50.1DEF SNAP/GM 61.4 58.4 62.1 61.2
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Frank Costanza's Lawyer
Footballguy
What are people's thoughts on a LB's production being dependent on his team's situation? There are truly elite guys that can produce regardless of their situation. There also seem to be guys who's elite production came from high tackle numbers, and those numbers appear vulnerable to improvements made by his team. Players like Ryans and Keith Bulluck have seen their production suffer as their teams improved (and Bulluck's production is better this year when his team isnt doing as well as it had in 2007 and 2008). The opposite would seem to be true for players like D'Qwell Jackson and Paul Posluszney.
prosopis
Arizona Chupacabra
I am thinking about putting Gerald Hayes in for him.
Frank Costanza's Lawyer
Footballguy
bump
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
Most would argue that opportunity is slightly more important than talent for defensive player statistical production. As you note, there are some talents that seem unstoppable. Still, the relatively poor surrounding cast and average to above-average tackle opportunity boost the numbers of Patrick Willis and poor opportunity often hurts Ray Lewis' weekly value -- similar to the players you have in your post.Defensive football is an eleven man team sport. Many, many variables go into the potential statistical production of any one defender.
