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2011 Rookie Draft Picks (1 Viewer)

I

Iron_Far

Footballguy
Starting this thread a little bit later than I have the last 2 years, but here it is. These are my opinions only and of course, I expect the juniors included to come out in 2011 (the uncapped year).

ALL commentary welcome.

Here are my projected top 14 (first round of a 14 teamer) in your standard PPR/non-IDP league for 2011 (Updated September 30th, 2010):

1. Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama

2. AJ Green, WR, Georgia

3. Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Oregon State

4. Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame

5. Ryan Williams, RB, Virginia Tech

6. Kyle Rudolph, TE, Notre Dame

7. Daniel Thomas, RB, Kansas State

8. Julio Jones, WR, Alabama

9. Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

10. DeMarco Murray, RB, Oklahoma

11. Jake Locker, QB, U-Dub

12. Kendall Hunter, RB, Oklahoma State

13. Evan Royster, RB, Penn State

14. Darren Evans, RB, Virginia Tech

Have at it.

 
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Nice stuff.

Michael Floyd way too low. I don't think he's that much worse than AJ Green and Julio Jones.

 
I'm very high on Julio Jones and Michael Floyd (I know, not exactly breaking new ground here), but just haven't seen enough of the other guys yet. I know people put AJ Green way up there too. It's tougher to gauge RBs at this point in my opinion.

 
I know he hasn't exactly lit it up so far this year, but wasn't Jonathan Dwyer pretty much the consensus #1 fantasy guy heading into this year? Now after 3 games he's not even on the list?

 
Pryor is dreadful.

I don't know if Barkley will be eligible in 2011. He's a true freshman, although he did enroll in college last Spring.

It's very early to say much about the 2011 draft. The WRs look promising.

 
wouldnt that be the year Jim Clausen is in the draft?

I think he is at ND for 2010.

Pryor shouldnt leave tOSU until he learns to throw. He's no where near Mike Vick at this point in their college careers.

 
1) A.J Green (WR, Georgia)

2) Julio Jones (WR, Alabama)

These are by far the premium players of the 2011 draft, and after them it's hard to say who will be #3 at this point.

Yes, I feel AJ Green will be a better NFL WR than Julio Jones.

 
offdee said:
1) A.J Green (WR, Georgia)2) Julio Jones (WR, Alabama)These are by far the premium players of the 2011 draft, and after them it's hard to say who will be #3 at this point.Yes, I feel AJ Green will be a better NFL WR than Julio Jones.
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Those two and Quizz are the only ones I feel great about right now. The rest are could be's, but have questions to answer first imho.Quizz is the next Jones-Drew though, that I feel confident writing.
 
steelcityman said:
wouldnt that be the year Jim Clausen is in the draft?I think he is at ND for 2010.Pryor shouldnt leave tOSU until he learns to throw. He's no where near Mike Vick at this point in their college careers.
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with a rookie salary cap as a possibility in the next CBA, it's possible that a ton of juniors jump into the 2010 draft.
 
offdee said:
1) A.J Green (WR, Georgia)2) Julio Jones (WR, Alabama)These are by far the premium players of the 2011 draft, and after them it's hard to say who will be #3 at this point.Yes, I feel AJ Green will be a better NFL WR than Julio Jones.
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i dont get why Michael Floyd is widely considered to be a lower tier NFL prospect than those two WRs. I agree with you though, i also like AJ Green more than Julio. Julio is overrated imo.
 
Quizz is a true sophmore and would have to come out early to be in the 2011 draft. He is fun to watch but may not have the top end speed for the NFL. For all of the holes he found last year, his longest TD is about 33. He did have a 47 yarder against UNLV. His older brother James has better speed and is a decent WR/KR who may make a name at the next level.

Every NFL scout that I've heard talk about Jake Locker out of UW (Seattle) love him. He is a pure talent that needs to be developed. He has to increase his accuracy a long with his touch on the deep ball. There is rumor here that if he has a good year, that he might enter this coming draft.

 
senor peso 2006 said:
Every NFL scout that I've heard talk about Jake Locker out of UW (Seattle) love him. He is a pure talent that needs to be developed. He has to increase his accuracy a long with his touch on the deep ball. There is rumor here that if he has a good year, that he might enter this coming draft.
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I've been watching Locker since his sophomore year in high school. To say that he's a choir-boy is a huge understatement. This young man isn't and never was your typical high school athlete. He always exuded class. I can't say enough about his maturity and humility. All his high school teacher just raved about his behavior and work ethic. I have serious doubts he would leave UW early. I guess it could happen, but I just can't see it. He's just not that kind of young man.
 
Hooper31 said:
senor peso 2006 said:
Every NFL scout that I've heard talk about Jake Locker out of UW (Seattle) love him. He is a pure talent that needs to be developed. He has to increase his accuracy a long with his touch on the deep ball. There is rumor here that if he has a good year, that he might enter this coming draft.
Click to expand...
I've been watching Locker since his sophomore year in high school. To say that he's a choir-boy is a huge understatement. This young man isn't and never was your typical high school athlete. He always exuded class. I can't say enough about his maturity and humility. All his high school teacher just raved about his behavior and work ethic. I have serious doubts he would leave UW early. I guess it could happen, but I just can't see it. He's just not that kind of young man.
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People are already talking about him being in the running to be the first QB taken even if he comes out this year. I don't think he makes it to the 2011 draft.
 
FreeBaGeL said:
Hooper31 said:
senor peso 2006 said:
Every NFL scout that I've heard talk about Jake Locker out of UW (Seattle) love him. He is a pure talent that needs to be developed. He has to increase his accuracy a long with his touch on the deep ball. There is rumor here that if he has a good year, that he might enter this coming draft.
Click to expand...
I've been watching Locker since his sophomore year in high school. To say that he's a choir-boy is a huge understatement. This young man isn't and never was your typical high school athlete. He always exuded class. I can't say enough about his maturity and humility. All his high school teacher just raved about his behavior and work ethic. I have serious doubts he would leave UW early. I guess it could happen, but I just can't see it. He's just not that kind of young man.
Click to expand...
People are already talking about him being in the running to be the first QB taken even if he comes out this year. I don't think he makes it to the 2011 draft.
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Talentwise, I might agree. However, this is his first year ever in any sort of "passing" offense. In high school he ran a single/double wing variation. They ran it virtually all the time and just rolled over everyone. His freshman year (redshirt) in college under Willingham he got another offense predicated on running the majority of the time. Willingham's favorite play was called "Go Jake Go". They called this play more than 10 times each game. This season is his first being tutored by a coach that emphasizes a pro-style passing attack. There have been several plays already this season where you can tell he's thinking about staying alive in the pocket instead of dropping his shoulders and taking off. IMO Locker will best be served by staying another year and getting experience in this type of offense. I'm not going to tell you I know the guy. I met him once and shook his hand when I played against him at a softball tournament in 2008. I do know a lot of people that are close to him. I'm good friends with three of his former high school teachers. They all say the same thing, and I don't think its simple hyperbole. This is a golden kid. Perfect mannerisms, maturity, and humble nature. He simply oozes class and he's everything that we want our young star athletes to be. Yeah, I want him to stay at UW, but the things I know about him makes me think he will want to stay for his senior season. Time will tell. First we'll have to see how the junior year finishes up.
 
FreeBaGeL said:
I know he hasn't exactly lit it up so far this year, but wasn't Jonathan Dwyer pretty much the consensus #1 fantasy guy heading into this year? Now after 3 games he's not even on the list?
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Not really, Best and Spiller was in that boat as well.
 
Might have to put Locker on this list (and out of the 2010 list) now considering his success so far will probably lead to him staying one more year.

 
I think Golden Tate is a big omission here. I thought so even before last night, but the 275 yards from scrimmage v Washington really highlights it IMO.

 
IHEARTFF said:
Locker looked incredible yesterday, as did AJ Green. (Shocking and in depth analysis, I know)
Click to expand...
Green is very powerful for a guy so thin. No doubt the # 1 WR prospect for 2011. Goes and gets the ball. I need to see a lot more consistency from Julio Jones.
 
Balco said:
IHEARTFF said:
Locker looked incredible yesterday, as did AJ Green. (Shocking and in depth analysis, I know)
Click to expand...
Green is very powerful for a guy so thin. No doubt the # 1 WR prospect for 2011. Goes and gets the ball. I need to see a lot more consistency from Julio Jones.
Click to expand...
Balco, I know you do this pretty seriously... how much do you think Green will fill out in the next couple years? He's too slight for my liking right now, and he's already 21 years old.
 
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wdcrob said:
Balco said:
IHEARTFF said:
Locker looked incredible yesterday, as did AJ Green. (Shocking and in depth analysis, I know)
Click to expand...
Green is very powerful for a guy so thin. No doubt the # 1 WR prospect for 2011. Goes and gets the ball. I need to see a lot more consistency from Julio Jones.
Click to expand...
Balco, I know you do this pretty seriously... how much do you think Green will fill out in the next couple years? He's too slight for my liking right now, and he's already 21 years old.
Click to expand...
Some people just don't have the frames to put on a lot of weight, and I think Green isn't going to fill out. With that said, for being so skinny, he does a nice job of getting off jams at the line. Pretty much the total package. A lot to be excited about.
 
After Mark Ingram, i'd put Ryan Williams out of Virginia Tech as the #2 back. He's quick, hits the hole hard, fluid hips, breaks tackles, decent long speed.

The top of this draft is going to be VERY good imo. Mark Ingram, Ryan Williams, AJ Green, Julio Jones, and Michael Floyd all look like potential NFL studs.

 
wdcrob said:
I think Golden Tate is a big omission here. I thought so even before last night, but the 275 yards from scrimmage v Washington really highlights it IMO.
Click to expand...
He's not being talked about in fantasy realms, but it sounds like a lot of NFL scouts are really taking notice of his play this season.He looks damn good.
 
Patoons said:
wdcrob said:
I think Golden Tate is a big omission here. I thought so even before last night, but the 275 yards from scrimmage v Washington really highlights it IMO.
Click to expand...
He's not being talked about in fantasy realms, but it sounds like a lot of NFL scouts are really taking notice of his play this season.He looks damn good.
Click to expand...
After the catch Golden Tate is a beast. His route running is improving which is good to see. My main worry with him is how he very rarely catches the ball with his hands and usually tries to trap the ball against his chest. Seeing as he's a MLB quality baseball prospect as well, his hands obviously are at least decent. It's just surprising to me that ND's staff don't work with him to catch the ball properly.
 
wdcrob said:
Balco said:
IHEARTFF said:
Locker looked incredible yesterday, as did AJ Green. (Shocking and in depth analysis, I know)
Click to expand...
Green is very powerful for a guy so thin. No doubt the # 1 WR prospect for 2011. Goes and gets the ball. I need to see a lot more consistency from Julio Jones.
Click to expand...
Balco, I know you do this pretty seriously... how much do you think Green will fill out in the next couple years? He's too slight for my liking right now, and he's already 21 years old.
Click to expand...
Why does he need to fill out? Please don't tell me we're getting back to this BMI crap again.As Balco said, Green plays much stronger than he looks. He beats aggressive CBs off the line with relative ease. He is better than any WR in the 1010 class or 2011 class.
 
jurb26 said:
wdcrob said:
Balco said:
IHEARTFF said:
Locker looked incredible yesterday, as did AJ Green. (Shocking and in depth analysis, I know)
Click to expand...
Green is very powerful for a guy so thin. No doubt the # 1 WR prospect for 2011. Goes and gets the ball. I need to see a lot more consistency from Julio Jones.
Click to expand...
Balco, I know you do this pretty seriously... how much do you think Green will fill out in the next couple years? He's too slight for my liking right now, and he's already 21 years old.
Click to expand...
Why does he need to fill out? Please don't tell me we're getting back to this BMI crap again.As Balco said, Green plays much stronger than he looks. He beats aggressive CBs off the line with relative ease. He is better than any WR in the 1010 class or 2011 class.
Click to expand...
He's nowhere near as good as Dez Bryant and everyone seems to know except you.
 
jurb26 said:
Why does he need to fill out? Please don't tell me we're getting back to this BMI crap again.As Balco said, Green plays much stronger than he looks. He beats aggressive CBs off the line with relative ease. He is better than any WR in the 1010 class or 2011 class.
Click to expand...
Sorry you don't like what I write Jurb. Fortunately FBGs has a pretty cool feature, called 'Ignore'. I just used it, so I can show you how it's done:Control PanelManage Ignored UsersAdd New User to Your ListType in Jurb26Hit OKAs to your question, here are the 1st ROUND PICKS Green's height or taller that played with a BMI under 27:David TerrellReggie WilliamsRandy MossMichael JenkinsThat's three out of four that busted out despite their prime draft position. By comparison, here are the guys 6'3" or taller FROM ANY DRAFT POSITION that played with BMIs over 27:Calvin JohnsonLarry FitzgeraldBraylon EdwardsVincent JacksonGermane CrowellPlaxico BurressMike WilliamsTyrone CalicoBrandon MarshallMarques ColstonKevin WalterThe only misses from this group (1998-2007) are Mike Williams (headcasery) and Tyrone Calico (horse collared into retirement). Ernest Wilford also fits this basic criteria, but gets eliminated by a separate filter. There's also something in Moss's college performance that suggested he might be able to overcome his slight build which none of the other slender WRs shared, and that Green doesn't have (so far anyhow). I've backed (way) off the idea that this stuff is deterministic; it's not 1/0, it's probabilistic. But it's 100% clear that a WR's build, even within the normal range, has a huge impact on his eventual success.And if Green never puts on another pound from 208 he's at a much higher risk of busting out than if he were to eventually get to something around 220.(ETA: I'm missing some late-drafted and tiny school guys from 1998-2002 - so that second list may be missing a player or two.)
 
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awesomeness said:
Patoons said:
wdcrob said:
I think Golden Tate is a big omission here. I thought so even before last night, but the 275 yards from scrimmage v Washington really highlights it IMO.
Click to expand...
He's not being talked about in fantasy realms, but it sounds like a lot of NFL scouts are really taking notice of his play this season.He looks damn good.
Click to expand...
After the catch Golden Tate is a beast. His route running is improving which is good to see. My main worry with him is how he very rarely catches the ball with his hands and usually tries to trap the ball against his chest. Seeing as he's a MLB quality baseball prospect as well, his hands obviously are at least decent. It's just surprising to me that ND's staff don't work with him to catch the ball properly.
Click to expand...
I have seen Tate catch the ball with his hands alot. Last couple of games Clausen has thrown it high to him and he jumps, catches it with his hands with no problem at all. Not saying you are wrong, but I think he has outstanding hands. Nothing to worry about with him. Will be a very good NFL WR.
 
jurb26 said:
As Balco said, Green plays much stronger than he looks. He beats aggressive CBs off the line with relative ease. He is better than any WR in the 1010 class or 2011 class.
Click to expand...
Well to be fair, medical advancements and training techniques are a lot more evolved nowadays than they were in 1010, so that's not really a fair comparison.
 
The spectre of a rookies salary cap is going to propel a ton of college players into the 2010 draft.

We know the draft-eligible juniors.

But does anyone know if any of the 2011 prospects listed in this thread are actually third year sophomores & thus eligible for the 2010 draft?

 
Hoss_Cartwright said:
jurb26 said:
wdcrob said:
Balco said:
IHEARTFF said:
Locker looked incredible yesterday, as did AJ Green. (Shocking and in depth analysis, I know)
Click to expand...
Green is very powerful for a guy so thin. No doubt the # 1 WR prospect for 2011. Goes and gets the ball. I need to see a lot more consistency from Julio Jones.
Click to expand...
Balco, I know you do this pretty seriously... how much do you think Green will fill out in the next couple years? He's too slight for my liking right now, and he's already 21 years old.
Click to expand...
Why does he need to fill out? Please don't tell me we're getting back to this BMI crap again.As Balco said, Green plays much stronger than he looks. He beats aggressive CBs off the line with relative ease. He is better than any WR in the 1010 class or 2011 class.
Click to expand...
He's nowhere near as good as Dez Bryant and everyone seems to know except you.
Click to expand...
I see you failed to read through both this whole thread or the one you created on the topic. Not surprising for the guy who didn't even know NFL eligibility. :lol:
 
ConstruxBoy said:
Hoss_Cartwright said:
jurb26 said:
Not surprising for the guy who didn't even know NFL eligibility. :lol:
Click to expand...
I know that Dez Bryant has made himself available for the 2010 draft :)
Click to expand...
Sure you don't want two more firsts to make sure you get him? ;)
Click to expand...
I expect him to go 1.01 in most PPR League drafts. I'm hoping to win the title in HyperActive 3 and have the #1 overall in HyperActive 1. I would love to have Bryant to go along with my other pieces already started in HA1, and hopefully be on my way to a 2nd title in HA1 in the short history of the league.
 
wdcrob said:
jurb26 said:
Why does he need to fill out? Please don't tell me we're getting back to this BMI crap again.

As Balco said, Green plays much stronger than he looks. He beats aggressive CBs off the line with relative ease. He is better than any WR in the 1010 class or 2011 class.
Click to expand...
Sorry you don't like what I write Jurb. Fortunately FBGs has a pretty cool feature, called 'Ignore'. I just used it, so I can show you how it's done:Control Panel

Manage Ignored Users

Add New User to Your List

Type in Jurb26

Hit OK

As to your question, here are the 1st ROUND PICKS Green's height or taller that played with a BMI under 27:

David Terrell

Reggie Williams

Randy Moss

Michael Jenkins

That's three out of four that busted out despite their prime draft position. By comparison, here are the guys 6'3" or taller FROM ANY DRAFT POSITION that played with BMIs over 27:

Calvin Johnson

Larry Fitzgerald

Braylon Edwards

Vincent Jackson

Germane Crowell

Plaxico Burress

Mike Williams

Tyrone Calico

Brandon Marshall

Marques Colston

Kevin Walter

The only misses from this group (1998-2007) are Mike Williams (headcasery) and Tyrone Calico (horse collared into retirement). Ernest Wilford also fits this basic criteria, but gets eliminated by a separate filter.

There's also something in Moss's college performance that suggested he might be able to overcome his slight build which none of the other slender WRs shared, and that Green doesn't have (so far anyhow). I've backed (way) off the idea that this stuff is deterministic; it's not 1/0, it's probabilistic. But it's 100% clear that a WR's build, even within the normal range, has a huge impact on his eventual success.

And if Green never puts on another pound from 208 he's at a much higher risk of busting out than if he were to eventually get to something around 220.

(ETA: I'm missing some late-drafted and tiny school guys from 1998-2002 - so that second list may be missing a player or two.)
Click to expand...
A little sensitive on that topic, huh? Guess I can't blame you.Why are you only using players of Green's height only if the BMI is so important? Especially given how small the sample size is. Also, why are you using only 1st rounders for one group and all draft picks for another? Pretty strange way to try and prove a point. Here are the BMIs of just some WRs from the 2008 class:

Avery 25.5

Thomas 27.6

Nelson 27.1

Hardy 26.1

Royal 25.8

Simpson 25.0

D. Jackson 25.1

Kelly 27.6

Sweed 26.8

Dex. Jackson 26.9

Bennett 27.7

Doucet 28.7

Douglas 24.7

Manningham 25.5

Caldwell 27.1

I bolded the players that seem to be "hits" or good WRs even though it is admittedly a short period of time. I only went back through the 3rd round to save some time. 4 out of the 5 are below your BMI of 27. 4 out of 9 (44%) guys with bellow 27 seem to be on the path to success. 1 out of 6 (16%) 27 or above seem to be on the path to success.

Well, obviously last years draft may be a tough indicator so lets look back 10 years to the 1998 draft.

Dyson 27.4

Moss 25.6

Nash 24.4

Pathon 26.7

J. Green 24.4

P. Johnson 28.1

Crowell 27.7

Simmons 28.0

Jureviciuis 27.3

Ricks 30.8

Alford 25.1

E. Green 26.5

German 25.3

Shannon 25.6

Ward 27.8

So of this group (which is a pretty bad draft for WRs) 1 of the 3 hits are bellow the 27 BMI mark. 1 of 8 (12.5%) of the guys with bellow 27 were hits. 2 of 7 (28.5%) of the guys 27 or above were hits.

This give us a total group of 29 WRs who were drafted in the top 3 rounds. Of that 29, 13 are bellow 27 BMI and 16 are 27 or above. 5/13 (38.5%) bellow look to be hits. 6/16 (37.5%) 27 or above look to be hits. What I find interesting is that there is a huge disparity in the 2 years I picked. I don't have time to do this for all the years right now but it's interesting that the smaller WRs are doing vastly better in 2008 vs. 1998. Rule changes to make getting off the LOS easier could have a lot to do with this as the quicker guys who are maybe not as strong can more easily get to open space.

Went back and checked 5 years ago, 2004 draft:

Fitz 27.1

Roy Williams 26.9

Reg Williams 25.8

Evans 28.3

Clayton 26.2

Jenkins 26.4

Woods 25.9

Henderson 27.9

Watts 24.4

Colbert 27.0

Hamilton 25.2

Berrian 24.4

Darling 28.1

Not really sure what to make of guys like Clayton and Henderson but I'll just leave them off the hit list. So we have 2 out of the 4 hits being less than 27 BMI. 2 of 8 (25%) guys less than 27 were hits. 2 of 5 (40%) 27 or above where hits.

the total group is now 42 WRs. 22 bellow the 27 mark, 20 27 or above. Hit rates of 32% for bellow 27 BMI and 40% for 27 and above.

 
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Jerry Rice was 6-2 190 coming into the league. BMI 24.4.

Sidney Ricewas 6-4 202. BMI 24.6

Green and Sidney are very similar physically, btw.

 
Chaos Commish said:
Jerry Rice was 6-2 190 coming into the league. BMI 24.4.Sidney Ricewas 6-4 202. BMI 24.6Green and Sidney are very similar physically, btw.
Click to expand...
So the best 2 WRs ever (for arguments sack anyway) Moss and Rice are 25.6 and 24.4 respectively.As to Green and Sidney. They are very similar by build but Green is far more explosive.
 
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