It's not what you think it is (1 Viewer)

I've seen a lot of folks mentioning the Texans' run defense as a favorable match-up. While some people have caught on to trends of late, I'd like to bring to light what's been going on there for the benefit of the entire board.

As of week 3 the Texans' defense had been historically bad. They had allowed:

Thomas Jones - 20/107/2

Chris Johnson - 16/197/2 and 9/87/1 (receiving)

MJD - 23/119/3

For week 4, the Texans made some changes to the defense. At SS the Texans started newly acquired Bernard Pollard and at CB the Texans started rookie Glover Quin. In addition to these new starters, Brian Cushing and Dunta Robinson, who both missed all of the preseason, were getting their legs under them and the defense as a whole was adjusting to new DC, Frank Bush's scheme.

Since that historically bad start, the Texans have fared considerably better:

Justin Fargas - 10/24/0

Beanie Wells - 7/24/0

Cedric Benson - 16/44/1

Frank Gore - 13/32/0

Marshawn Lynch - 9/43/0

The Texans have held opposing teams' leading rusher to a paltry 3.03 YPC and .2 TD/game. They have also held opposing teams, as a whole, to less than 50 yards rushing per game. Granted, some of these games came against rushing offenses such as Oakland and Buffalo, but others came against rushing offenses such as Cincinnati and San Francisco.

Needless to say, I think it's safe to take Houston off the 'favorable match-up" list for your fantasy team's RB.

Stewy said:

I've seen a lot of folks mentioning the Texans' run defense as a favorable match-up. While some people have caught on to trends of late, I'd like to bring to light what's been going on there for the benefit of the entire board.As of week 3 the Texans' defense had been historically bad. They had allowed:Thomas Jones - 20/107/2Chris Johnson - 16/197/2 and 9/87/1 (receiving)MJD - 23/119/3For week 4, the Texans made some changes to the defense. At SS the Texans started newly acquired Bernard Pollard and at CB the Texans started rookie Glover Quin. In addition to these new starters, Brian Cushing and Dunta Robinson, who both missed all of the preseason, were getting their legs under them and the defense as a whole was adjusting to new DC, Frank Bush's scheme. Since that historically bad start, the Texans have fared considerably better:Justin Fargas - 10/24/0Beanie Wells - 7/24/0Cedric Benson - 16/44/1Frank Gore - 13/32/0Marshawn Lynch - 9/43/0The Texans have held opposing teams' leading rusher to a paltry 3.03 YPC and .2 TD/game. They have also held opposing teams, as a whole, to less than 50 yards rushing per game. Granted, some of these games came against rushing offenses such as Oakland and Buffalo, but others came against rushing offenses such as Cincinnati and San Francisco.Needless to say, I think it's safe to take Houston off the 'favorable match-up" list for your fantasy team's RB.

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Nice analysis.Don't mean to punch a hole in your baloon. But I think the Houston D is what I think it is. A defense that suddenly looks good masked by a high-octane offense. Not to dissimilar to New Orleans.But this high scoring team is due for a correction. Losing Daniels was BIG. Andre has the sore chest. A. Walter is serviceable, but could never fill the shoes of Andre if needed. Slaton is a fumble machine.Moats is an aberation that occurs on any given blue moon against lousy teams like the Bills.In competitive games, which I believe are coming, the Houston D will be confronted with more balanced playcalling, and the rush yards against will climb as teams will not be playing catchup. JMO

Raiderfan32904 said:

Nice analysis.Don't mean to punch a hole in your baloon. But I think the Houston D is what I think it is. A defense that suddenly looks good masked by a high-octane offense. Not to dissimilar to New Orleans.But this high scoring team is due for a correction. Losing Daniels was BIG. Andre has the sore chest. A. Walter is serviceable, but could never fill the shoes of Andre if needed. Slaton is a fumble machine.Moats is an aberation that occurs on any given blue moon against lousy teams like the Bills.In competitive games, which I believe are coming, the Houston D will be confronted with more balanced playcalling, and the rush yards against will climb as teams will not be playing catchup. JMO

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The only problem with that line of thinking is, if the improvement in the defense is a result of the offense, what is the explanation for the defense's poor showings in weeks 2 and 3 when the offense was putting up 30+ points and yet the defense was still giving up big plays to MJD and Chris Johnson?Obviously the defense won't keep up this pace, but the premsie of this thread is that the Texans are now an above average-to-good run defense, and I think the evidence holds that up to be true.

Stewy said:

Raiderfan32904 said:

Nice analysis.Don't mean to punch a hole in your baloon. But I think the Houston D is what I think it is. A defense that suddenly looks good masked by a high-octane offense. Not to dissimilar to New Orleans.But this high scoring team is due for a correction. Losing Daniels was BIG. Andre has the sore chest. A. Walter is serviceable, but could never fill the shoes of Andre if needed. Slaton is a fumble machine.Moats is an aberation that occurs on any given blue moon against lousy teams like the Bills.In competitive games, which I believe are coming, the Houston D will be confronted with more balanced playcalling, and the rush yards against will climb as teams will not be playing catchup. JMO

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The only problem with that line of thinking is, if the improvement in the defense is a result of the offense, what is the explanation for the defense's poor showings in weeks 2 and 3 when the offense was putting up 30+ points and yet the defense was still giving up big plays to MJD and Chris Johnson?Obviously the defense won't keep up this pace, but the premsie of this thread is that the Texans are now an above average-to-good run defense, and I think the evidence holds that up to be true.

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I'll add something to what Stewy just said here. Those first 3 weeks, the Texans gave up a pretty significant number of yards and points to blown assignments. Off the top of my head Jets got a 40 or so yard TD out of a WR left completely open, Titans got about a 70 yard TD out of no one covering Chris Johnson, MJD got a 60 yard TD through a truck-sized hole out of Busing, Bennet blowing their backside responsibility and Cushing overpursuing inside. And I know there were a few other big plays from blown assignments those games, I just don't recall the details offhand.After that week, the Texans not only replaced Busing and Bennett with Pollard and Quinn (McCain for a bit but Quin has beat him out I think), but they said they were going to simplify the game plan because the players weren't getting everything in Bush's system. From a Houston Chronicle article at the time:

Last week's practices were very good. It was as if the Texans couldn't wait to get back on the field. Then they lost again. Lost because they were dumb. Lost because of a lack of focus.Kubiak pointed a finger at himself for not having the players ready, and he backed up those words this week by preparing to simplify the defensive game plan.But as Dunta Robinson said, “One hundred percent of it comes from the players. We're on the field every snap. They call the play, we have to go out there and execute. If there is a guy that's blaming a coach, saying it's not their fault on the defensive side, that's crazy. That's why we're at where we are right now.”However, Kubiak said, “When you feel like maybe your players aren't grasping all the things you're doing, then you don't keep doing them. You find out what they're grasping and then see if they're good enough.”

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And despite a lot of people being critical about it in the Texans blogosphere, it seems to have made a difference. They aren't blowing assignments, they aren't giving up 1/4 of the points they allow per game to a single player screwing up his assignment. The players are being more aggressive which comes from understanding what they need to do and not having to try to think during the play to do the right thing. They are getting more penetration, especially against the running game. And I'll add that the play of Pollard at safety should not be understated. He's been a beast against the run and a very sure tackler. I had thought this last weekend while watching the game that we should take up a collection in the Texans season thread to send a gift basket to the Chief's front office thanking them for Pollard.I'm far from sold that the Texans are the best unit against the run in the NFL right now (which they have been since week 3 statistically). But I also would not buy into them being that same defense that through week 3 was on pace to give up an all-time NFL record number of rushing yards allowed. They filled one of the glaring holes with the addition of Pollard, and they are showing an aggression and ability to play on the other side of the ball now that Texans fans have never seen from their defense before the changes that went in for week 4.