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Overanalyzing and "experts." Bitter lessons this year. (1 Viewer)

Kwai Chang Caine

Kwai Chang Caine

Footballguy
Fellas I just had to vent a bit and maybe get some opinions. I just watched my fantasy playoff hopes vanish this year after once again outthinking myself. All year I kept making the "savvy" lineup move based on my own countless (and largely wasted) hours of research and the use of one pay site that I had a two year subscription to. This weeks gems included sitting Megatron for Jeremy Maclin and also sitting Vernon Davis for Tony Gonzales because Gonzo just had to tear it up against the Eagles "who are putrid" against the TE" as the one site put it. As the old Lez Zeppelin song goes, "It's nobody's fault but mine."

Still, it seems to me that before the super-information age I would have stuck with Johnson and Davis based on two simple reasons: talent and demonstrated ability. Davis has been a monster for weeks and is leading my league in TE scoring yet I pulled him because I researched that he only had 37 yds. against Seattle yada yada yada... Johnson I sat not because of the knee as I heard he was feeling bettter but I was worried about the Cinci D and just kept seeing all these smart analysts rate Maclin as a huge upside this week.

I put way too much time into this "hobby" and I see some of my league-mates show up at the draft with a magazine and then basically set their lineups and only make big changes for bye weeks or injury. I'm not saying these guys are not active. They can and do make waiver moves but it seems to me that if I would have stuck to just playing the most talented guys and the most consistent guys I would have won a couple more games. I mean what do you do when you have both Gonzo and Davis and a trade deadline that has long passed? You have to stay with one right?

Same thing with WRs. In my league we can only play two. Between Johnson, Driver and MSW, week in and week out I sat the guy that would blow up. It seems if I would have stayed with two I would have done better.

Next year: ONE magazine, the free shark pool, "Set It and Forget It" and maybe learn the cello or Sanskrit with all my new found free time :mellow: :unsure:

 
I usually won't agree with anything an Eagle fans says but I'm with you on this one. The most consistent teams in my league year after year simply use the free info provided by yahoo or espn. I pay for subscriptions, check cheatsheets, etc and will come in 2nd to last this year and have never won anything.

 
I think you are making a hasty decision. If you had put in just a little more research you may have uncovered the fact that Chris Redman sucks.

 
The Davis situation was a bad call if you don't mind me saying. Gonzo was playing with a backup QB, even though he didn't have a horrible game, he did end up with 72 yards and was tackled down at the 3 yard line on a pass late in the game.

The Megatron situation was different. It was a more difficult call. For one, the Philly game was not a good one for WR's because the Philly passing game was never needed. Atlanta was never a threat and that kept Philadelphia's passing game in check. There was and is more potential in all the Wr's that started today for Phily with D. Jackson out but it just wasn't that kind of game.

In terms of Megatron, he has struggled some this year but you're right, if he's healthy or close to it, it's hard to bench the guy unless you have some solid studs in a Wr2 type league.

It is only a hobby, so don't get too worked up about it.

 
My research also showed that Calvin Johnson is, in fact, one of the four most gifted wide receivers in the NFL and NOT a 60 foot tall robot who got his ### kicked by Shia Labeouf...twice.

Don't take it too hard, it's a common mistake.

 
I use this site, the forums and the info provided by yahoo as my source of information. However, always remember that they are not the be all end all...sometimes you have to go with a gut feeling instead of pure stats. Gut feeling plays has provided me with 2-3 wins this year that should not have been, and now I am in the playoffs. If your gut says Davis next time, play him. Gotta have fun with it, right?

 
Iwannabeacowboybaby! said:
The Davis situation was a bad call if you don't mind me saying. Gonzo was playing with a backup QB, even though he didn't have a horrible game, he did end up with 72 yards and was tackled down at the 3 yard line on a pass late in the game.The Megatron situation was different. It was a more difficult call. For one, the Philly game was not a good one for WR's because the Philly passing game was never needed. Atlanta was never a threat and that kept Philadelphia's passing game in check. There was and is more potential in all the Wr's that started today for Phily with D. Jackson out but it just wasn't that kind of game.In terms of Megatron, he has struggled some this year but you're right, if he's healthy or close to it, it's hard to bench the guy unless you have some solid studs in a Wr2 type league.It is only a hobby, so don't get too worked up about it.
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I totally agree in hindsight that that was a bad call but the opinions of the experts were that Redman looked decent the week before and had targeted Gonzo 12 times. Coupled with the Eagles being terrible against the TE and that was the opinion of the pay site I used and several other rankings that Gonzo was the NUMBER ONE TE this week. My point though is that when I had a simpler approach to picking a lineup, I would never have taken Davis out of my lineup in the first place. He had been the number one scorer. If it ain't broke don't fix it. Too much information I guess.
 
This was my first season in fantasy football.

I have 10 teams in standard ESPN leagues, I know what you are saying I've read columns I've listened to podcasts, I triple check my teams on Saturday night, I've wasted enough man hours on fantasy football this year, to lose well over 40 lbs, and increase my bench press to 225x5.

With that said I am 64-56. 4 will make the playoffs, and one hinging on a playoff victory at the moment.

2 Teams I started at the start of the season were 4-0 are now 4-8 and 5-7, fantasy football is about attempting to predict variance. Yes leaving your players in and hoping for the best can work for you, if you have exceptional players.

My most important draft, my "friends draft", my #1 pick DW #2 Clinton Portin, #3 M Barber #4 Housh, #5-6 romo/roethlisberger. Imagine, if i just left that team to do whatever, I'd be absolutely cooked.

We are just skeptics, we are analyzers, we have to be happy with the decisions we make when we last click a submit roster button, we don't know how this will work out in the end of t all.

I mean how many times would you beat yourself up in online poker for folding 2-7 when 2-7-7 came up on the table? You wouldn't, you don't play garbage when it looks like garbage before half the game is played. If garbage turned out to be good, shake your head and be happy with your decision!

 
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Agreed. Before this thing, the interwebs, I would set a lineup and make a change only for a bye week or if a player was 'doubtful' ('questionable' always stayed in the lineup). Then I started to find sites like The Huddle, KFFL, and Cheatsheets and used the who-to-start info. I catch myself relying more on the "experts" that I'm paying and ignoring my gut instinct far too often.

I checked some ranking that I pay for last week for decision on my TE's. "Experts" had one ranked significantly higher then the other so I went against my gut and it backfired. This week I had a similar situation with a different position and trusted my own instinct. Worked out much better this week.

 
I use this site to gathter stats and shark pool for local insight on players. After 20 years of playing I go wit my feeling on who to start and who to sit.

 
A lot of people think an expert is someone who can micromanage every week to perfection. Some people can, in certain situations. But in general an expert is someone who has the patience to always start their studs.

The same can be said about the stock market. Some people think a stock market pro is someone who can deftly daytrade their way to riches. In reality, the rich are guys like Warren Buffet who make few trades and instead just find a stud stock at an undervalued price and sit on it.

 
Kwai Chang Caine said:
Fellas I just had to vent a bit and maybe get some opinions. I just watched my fantasy playoff hopes vanish this year after once again outthinking myself. All year I kept making the "savvy" lineup move based on my own countless (and largely wasted) hours of research and the use of one pay site that I had a two year subscription to. This weeks gems included sitting Megatron for Jeremy Maclin and also sitting Vernon Davis for Tony Gonzales because Gonzo just had to tear it up against the Eagles "who are putrid" against the TE" as the one site put it. As the old Lez Zeppelin song goes, "It's nobody's fault but mine."Still, it seems to me that before the super-information age I would have stuck with Johnson and Davis based on two simple reasons: talent and demonstrated ability. Davis has been a monster for weeks and is leading my league in TE scoring yet I pulled him because I researched that he only had 37 yds. against Seattle yada yada yada... Johnson I sat not because of the knee as I heard he was feeling bettter but I was worried about the Cinci D and just kept seeing all these smart analysts rate Maclin as a huge upside this week.I put way too much time into this "hobby" and I see some of my league-mates show up at the draft with a magazine and then basically set their lineups and only make big changes for bye weeks or injury. I'm not saying these guys are not active. They can and do make waiver moves but it seems to me that if I would have stuck to just playing the most talented guys and the most consistent guys I would have won a couple more games. I mean what do you do when you have both Gonzo and Davis and a trade deadline that has long passed? You have to stay with one right? Same thing with WRs. In my league we can only play two. Between Johnson, Driver and MSW, week in and week out I sat the guy that would blow up. It seems if I would have stayed with two I would have done better.Next year: ONE magazine, the free shark pool, "Set It and Forget It" and maybe learn the cello or Sanskrit with all my new found free time :lmao: :unsure:
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I can empathize with all that. But as many wise philosophers have said, all you can do is it make the best decision with the information that you have and not look back. To keep yourself sane, you just have to realize how much variance is involved and that you're only giving yourself a small edge by knowing more than your opponents. Very much like a poker tournament. Is it worth the time you put in? Probably not.
 
robz0r said:
This was my first season in fantasy football.

I have 10 teams in standard ESPN leagues
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Talk about diving right into the deep end! :lmao: I've been playing for years, and still won't go over 3 leagues ... otherwise, I know I'll micromanage and overanalyze myself into a straight-jacket and a padded room.
robz0r said:
I mean how many times would you beat yourself up in online poker for folding 2-7 when 2-7-7 came up on the table? You wouldn't, you don't play garbage when it looks like garbage before half the game is played. If garbage turned out to be good, shake your head and be happy with your decision!
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I've seen and used the poker analogy before ... I know what you're saying. Both games have an element of skill, but an undeniable huge element of luck. Skill shows itself over the long haul, but anything can happen to even the best for a given weekend (or a given season). Like poker, you go with the percentage play ... and it'll be wrong a lot of the time. Doesn't mean you shouldn't go with the odds next time. Sometimes you'll lose, and all you can do is take it and say "That's poker (fantasy football)" and move on.I've had my own moment with this over the weekend. Influenced by every weekly ranking I've seen, I did a last minute swap of McCoy (into my lineup) for Addai. I had Addai there all week. I don't trust how the Eagles use McCoy, and Addai has no competition for carries with Brown out. But I made a last second move, figuring the "experts" knew better than me. And it cost we the weekly win (a swing of 15 points in ppr) and maybe making the playoffs. Yes ... I fully deserve ptts.

 
There are no experts. You are just as qualified as they are to make a decision.

Anyone can make a website or write articles for FF purposes. Many years ago, I co-owned a site and wrote for it.

I do admire the guys that can run a site every week for years. It can be a grind, real life isn't supposed to get in the way, and predicting one thing wrong about any of the 400 offensive players playing each week makes normally sane people go crazy on you (via e-mail / PM / messageboard).

 
So...you benched the #1 TE.

And you benched a guy who has been very, very good when healthy, and was expected to play.

Really, the 'experts' had a reason to be high on Gonzalez and Maclin but just because you're high on someone doesn't mean they should start over the boring studs.

 
I have learned the hard way, over and over again (and despite a very sore rear end), that "experts" should only be used to bring new players to your attention, or to correct you on players that you either way overestimated or way underestimated.

For example, you should not bench Santiono Holmes EVER. Even if FBG ranks him as the 69th receiver in a 3 WR league. In cases like this, the experts are just out-smarting themselves. Although he is not a #1 stud, there is no reason for people like Devin Hester to be ranked in the 20's while Holmes is in the 60's, backup QB or not (I mean after all, isn't CUTLAHHHHH the equivalent of a backup QB???). Fortunately, when this site makes a mistake it is usually pretty blatant (such as ranking Favre as the #30 QB earlier in the year).

That being said, I'm glad the advice I do take is from this site and not CBS. Pete Prisco and Clark Judge are quite possibly the worst fantasy "analysts" I have ever had the displeasure of listening to.

 
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Mr. Retukes said:
:D Davis and Johnson were ranked ahead of Gonzo and Maclin in every site that I visit.
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:sleep: I'm all for passing the buck and refusing to take personal responsibility but c'mon. The 'experts' you're knocking didn't tell you to make the decisions you did.Better luck next year.
 
Knobs said:
Mr. Retukes said:
:thumbdown: Davis and Johnson were ranked ahead of Gonzo and Maclin in every site that I visit.
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:thumbup: I'm all for passing the buck and refusing to take personal responsibility but c'mon. The 'experts' you're knocking didn't tell you to make the decisions you did.Better luck next year.
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You know, I'll bet if you e-mailed those experts and asked "Are you saying I should bench Calvin for Maclin" they'd say "well, the numbers say that but I'm not sure you can actually bench him" or something to that effect. To me, the ranking doesn't mean bench all others for that guy. It just shows a high projection-- and you factor that into your decision-making. "Yeah, but Calvin is my starter" is a valid counter to that argument imo, and would probably win out.
 
There are no fantasy experts. Everyone makes decisions looking at the same data. I would much rather have my own successes - and make my own errors - based on my assessment of the data than I would simply repeating someone elses' idea of hits and misses, all the while paying them $ for picking my players and starters. FF is a voluntary hobby. If you don't enjoy looking at the information enough to draft your own team and manage it throughout the season, maybe it's time to switch hobbies. There are many different perspectives on this, and I'm not trying to offend anyone. Just my :X

 
KCC said:
There are no fantasy experts. Everyone makes decisions looking at the same data. I would much rather have my own successes - and make my own errors - based on my assessment of the data than I would simply repeating someone elses' idea of hits and misses, all the while paying them $ for picking my players and starters. FF is a voluntary hobby. If you don't enjoy looking at the information enough to draft your own team and manage it throughout the season, maybe it's time to switch hobbies. There are many different perspectives on this, and I'm not trying to offend anyone. Just my :goodposting:
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I agree. Most of the peopel on this board are just as much of an expert and any of the paid staff of a fantasy site. The main reason to subscribe to a fantasy site (for me) is so that thay can do the legwork of consolidating the data and information and occasionally giving some fresh perspectives and insights.Megatron is one of those guys you almost always have to start, Redman sucks.HTH
 
The problem with FF sites and the abundance of information is that every site has to have SOMETHING to say. I mean, they have to write up an article on this week's sleepers, busts, etc... They have to do weekly rankings - they want people coming back so they have to keep coming up with new info/data/etc. So, when you have all these sites just going out of their way to supply information you end up with a lot of info that can potentially be more harmful than it is helpful.

Was Maclin a good play this week with DeSean out? Yeah, probably. Was Gonzo going against a defense that's been weak against TE's - yep. But once you start reading all these articles and rankings saying what GREAT and AMAZING plays they are then you end up overthinking things and sitting your A-Studs for your B-Studs.

I fell into that trap this year as well. Next year I'm scaling back too.

 
KCC said:
There are no fantasy experts. Everyone makes decisions looking at the same data. I would much rather have my own successes - and make my own errors - based on my assessment of the data than I would simply repeating someone elses' idea of hits and misses, all the while paying them $ for picking my players and starters. FF is a voluntary hobby. If you don't enjoy looking at the information enough to draft your own team and manage it throughout the season, maybe it's time to switch hobbies. There are many different perspectives on this, and I'm not trying to offend anyone. Just my :tinfoilhat:
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:goodposting: Use other sources since they might bring a different perspective about a player. But in the end, the decision on who to start is yours and yours only. Blaming someone else for your loss is just silly.
 
Part of your problem seems also to be an abundance of talent to choose from... (You're Too Good)

I did well when I 1st started playing FF but, It always seemed like there wasn't a lot of choices, I had some studs and just ran with them.... In reality, I was probably working with a lot less information - Just a USA Today and some weekly rag.

Now More often than not I find myself with decisions like Roddy, Colston, Wayne, S Rice or Driver - Choose 3, sounds easier than it is.

Last year I had something like Chris Johnson, MJD , LT and S Jax to choose from (keeper league) and each one would pop at the wrong time - I didn't even make the playoffs.

Choosing from Gonzo and VD isn't easy and both guys are at the top of any weekly ranking....

Once you can recognize and acquire an abundance of decent talent - I don't think any service is going to help you much in picking just which Uber-Stud is going to light it up on a given week....

At least take responsibility though and go with your gut. No reason to blame anyone... It's the unpredictable part of the hobby that keeps it fun.

 
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Reaper said:
Part of your problem seems also to be an abundance of talent to choose from... (You're Too Good)

I did well when I 1st started playing FF but, It always seemed like there wasn't a lot of choices, I had some studs and just ran with them.... In reality, I was probably working with a lot less information - Just a USA Today and some weekly rag.

Now More often than not I find myself with decisions like Roddy, Colston, Wayne, S Rice or Driver - Choose 3, sounds easier than it is.

Last year I had something like Chris Johnson, MJD , LT and S Jax to choose from (keeper league) and each one would pop at the wrong time - I didn't even make the playoffs.

Choosing from Gonzo and VD isn't easy and both guys are at the top of any weekly ranking....

Once you can recognize and acquire an abundance of decent talent - I don't think any service is going to help you much in picking just which Uber-Stud is going to light it up on a given week....

At least take responsibility though and go with your gut. No reason to blame anyone... It's the unpredictable part of the hobby that keeps it fun.
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:wolf: Which is why I often will trade 2 very good players for one stud or trade good players even for draft picks, I have fun with the picks and I don't have to worry about Driver vs. Rice etc. Never forget, this game is about having fun, it's not supposed to just be about beating the other guy. I have more fun with this when I make my own decisions - sure I'll look at FBG's news or rankings just to check myself and I have missed injuries before (usually IDP) that FBG helps me catch. But in the end, this is my team.

 
Reaper said:
Part of your problem seems also to be an abundance of talent to choose from... (You're Too Good)

I did well when I 1st started playing FF but, It always seemed like there wasn't a lot of choices, I had some studs and just ran with them.... In reality, I was probably working with a lot less information - Just a USA Today and some weekly rag.

Now More often than not I find myself with decisions like Roddy, Colston, Wayne, S Rice or Driver - Choose 3, sounds easier than it is.

Last year I had something like Chris Johnson, MJD , LT and S Jax to choose from (keeper league) and each one would pop at the wrong time - I didn't even make the playoffs.

Choosing from Gonzo and VD isn't easy and both guys are at the top of any weekly ranking....

Once you can recognize and acquire an abundance of decent talent - I don't think any service is going to help you much in picking just which Uber-Stud is going to light it up on a given week....

At least take responsibility though and go with your gut. No reason to blame anyone... It's the unpredictable part of the hobby that keeps it fun.
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:lmao: This year on my team, I've had MJD, Gore, Ray Rice, Moreno, Calvin, Reggie Wayne, Roddy White and Greg Jennings. I've been the total points winner one week since week 2 of 2008 and sit currently in 3rd place. I've singlehandedly managed to score darn near the fewest points possible with that squad by playing matchups. Had I just picked ANY five at all and stuck with them I'd have scored higher. What I need to get through my thick skull is that, over the course of a season studs bend the matchup - not the other way around. You give Roddy White a season's worth of the most difficult matchups imaginable and he'll still get his. 16 straight games against Revis - yes, he'll have 4-5 games where he goes 2-17-0 but in the long run, great players take their cut. Matchups are the devil.

 
Kwai Chang Caine said:
Fellas I just had to vent a bit and maybe get some opinions. I just watched my fantasy playoff hopes vanish this year after once again outthinking myself. All year I kept making the "savvy" lineup move based on my own countless (and largely wasted) hours of research and the use of one pay site that I had a two year subscription to. This weeks gems included sitting Megatron for Jeremy Maclin and also sitting Vernon Davis for Tony Gonzales because Gonzo just had to tear it up against the Eagles "who are putrid" against the TE" as the one site put it. As the old Lez Zeppelin song goes, "It's nobody's fault but mine."Still, it seems to me that before the super-information age I would have stuck with Johnson and Davis based on two simple reasons: talent and demonstrated ability. Davis has been a monster for weeks and is leading my league in TE scoring yet I pulled him because I researched that he only had 37 yds. against Seattle yada yada yada... Johnson I sat not because of the knee as I heard he was feeling bettter but I was worried about the Cinci D and just kept seeing all these smart analysts rate Maclin as a huge upside this week.I put way too much time into this "hobby" and I see some of my league-mates show up at the draft with a magazine and then basically set their lineups and only make big changes for bye weeks or injury. I'm not saying these guys are not active. They can and do make waiver moves but it seems to me that if I would have stuck to just playing the most talented guys and the most consistent guys I would have won a couple more games. I mean what do you do when you have both Gonzo and Davis and a trade deadline that has long passed? You have to stay with one right? Same thing with WRs. In my league we can only play two. Between Johnson, Driver and MSW, week in and week out I sat the guy that would blow up. It seems if I would have stayed with two I would have done better.Next year: ONE magazine, the free shark pool, "Set It and Forget It" and maybe learn the cello or Sanskrit with all my new found free time :lmao: :shrug:
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That problem you have with overanalyzing things is the very reason you wrote this post. You are over-analyzing this topic as well.I don't know who your experts were, but your problem is that you expect your experts to hit 100%. That's just unrealistic.Choosing between two players like you were may only be a 55-45 proposition, but we expect the experts to hit that at a 90% clip. But it's football and the variables involved keep the percentages close.If you really think your gut is better, and it could be, try running a comparison over the course of the season and see how you fare. My guess is that you see that your gut misses as the experts do, if not more. We have the tendency to remember our hits and not our misses unless we write everything down.
 
FWIW, in the week 13 passing matchups Footballguys ranked Atlanta's matchup "tough" and concluded as follows:

Redman is a capable player, but the situation he'll face on Sunday isn't the most favorable for success - advantage, Philadelphia.
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I just wanted to point out that it wasn't me hyping Gonzales this past week. MW
 
FantasyTrader said:
Reaper said:
Part of your problem seems also to be an abundance of talent to choose from... (You're Too Good)

I did well when I 1st started playing FF but, It always seemed like there wasn't a lot of choices, I had some studs and just ran with them.... In reality, I was probably working with a lot less information - Just a USA Today and some weekly rag.

Now More often than not I find myself with decisions like Roddy, Colston, Wayne, S Rice or Driver - Choose 3, sounds easier than it is.

Last year I had something like Chris Johnson, MJD , LT and S Jax to choose from (keeper league) and each one would pop at the wrong time - I didn't even make the playoffs.

Choosing from Gonzo and VD isn't easy and both guys are at the top of any weekly ranking....

Once you can recognize and acquire an abundance of decent talent - I don't think any service is going to help you much in picking just which Uber-Stud is going to light it up on a given week....

At least take responsibility though and go with your gut. No reason to blame anyone... It's the unpredictable part of the hobby that keeps it fun.
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:shock: This year on my team, I've had MJD, Gore, Ray Rice, Moreno, Calvin, Reggie Wayne, Roddy White and Greg Jennings. I've been the total points winner one week since week 2 of 2008 and sit currently in 3rd place. I've singlehandedly managed to score darn near the fewest points possible with that squad by playing matchups. Had I just picked ANY five at all and stuck with them I'd have scored higher. What I need to get through my thick skull is that, over the course of a season studs bend the matchup - not the other way around. You give Roddy White a season's worth of the most difficult matchups imaginable and he'll still get his. 16 straight games against Revis - yes, he'll have 4-5 games where he goes 2-17-0 but in the long run, great players take their cut. Matchups are the devil.
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Same thing here.I have Boldin, Vjax, Driver, Miles Austin, and Austin Collie - Pick three.

I have a deep rosters and have more talent but it always seems I have points sitting on the bench.

 
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Mark Wimer said:
FWIW, in the week 13 passing matchups Footballguys ranked Atlanta's matchup "tough" and concluded as follows:

Redman is a capable player, but the situation he'll face on Sunday isn't the most favorable for success - advantage, Philadelphia.
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I just wanted to point out that it wasn't me hyping Gonzales this past week. MW
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Even if you were,it's not like White (9-104-1) or Gonzalez (8-72, almost a TD) didn't put up good numbers under Redman this week.
 
FantasyTrader said:
Reaper said:
Part of your problem seems also to be an abundance of talent to choose from... (You're Too Good)

I did well when I 1st started playing FF but, It always seemed like there wasn't a lot of choices, I had some studs and just ran with them.... In reality, I was probably working with a lot less information - Just a USA Today and some weekly rag.

Now More often than not I find myself with decisions like Roddy, Colston, Wayne, S Rice or Driver - Choose 3, sounds easier than it is.

Last year I had something like Chris Johnson, MJD , LT and S Jax to choose from (keeper league) and each one would pop at the wrong time - I didn't even make the playoffs.

Choosing from Gonzo and VD isn't easy and both guys are at the top of any weekly ranking....

Once you can recognize and acquire an abundance of decent talent - I don't think any service is going to help you much in picking just which Uber-Stud is going to light it up on a given week....

At least take responsibility though and go with your gut. No reason to blame anyone... It's the unpredictable part of the hobby that keeps it fun.
Click to expand...
:thumbup: This year on my team, I've had MJD, Gore, Ray Rice, Moreno, Calvin, Reggie Wayne, Roddy White and Greg Jennings. I've been the total points winner one week since week 2 of 2008 and sit currently in 3rd place. I've singlehandedly managed to score darn near the fewest points possible with that squad by playing matchups. Had I just picked ANY five at all and stuck with them I'd have scored higher. What I need to get through my thick skull is that, over the course of a season studs bend the matchup - not the other way around. You give Roddy White a season's worth of the most difficult matchups imaginable and he'll still get his. 16 straight games against Revis - yes, he'll have 4-5 games where he goes 2-17-0 but in the long run, great players take their cut. Matchups are the devil.
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Very :unsure: You will lose more often than win trying to overthink this silly game we play.

 
Kwai Chang Caine said:
Iwannabeacowboybaby! said:
The Davis situation was a bad call if you don't mind me saying. Gonzo was playing with a backup QB, even though he didn't have a horrible game, he did end up with 72 yards and was tackled down at the 3 yard line on a pass late in the game.The Megatron situation was different. It was a more difficult call. For one, the Philly game was not a good one for WR's because the Philly passing game was never needed. Atlanta was never a threat and that kept Philadelphia's passing game in check. There was and is more potential in all the Wr's that started today for Phily with D. Jackson out but it just wasn't that kind of game.In terms of Megatron, he has struggled some this year but you're right, if he's healthy or close to it, it's hard to bench the guy unless you have some solid studs in a Wr2 type league.It is only a hobby, so don't get too worked up about it.
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I totally agree in hindsight that that was a bad call but the opinions of the experts were that Redman looked decent the week before and had targeted Gonzo 12 times. Coupled with the Eagles being terrible against the TE and that was the opinion of the pay site I used and several other rankings that Gonzo was the NUMBER ONE TE this week. My point though is that when I had a simpler approach to picking a lineup, I would never have taken Davis out of my lineup in the first place. He had been the number one scorer. If it ain't broke don't fix it. Too much information I guess.
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There wasn't anything wrong with the predictions. Gonzo was targetted a TON, and had decent production. Maclin was dinged on the opening kickoff, and may have seen more limited use then normal. Philly was up early, and was never seriously threatened, so they took very few good looks deep downfield. Maclin was certainly a part of the gameplan though, and had several targets.No matter how much you know, or how right you are about talent or opportunity, things don't always add up. Gonzalez is the perfect emaxple...guy had a very, very good game....caught a ton of balls and was generaly the only thing going right for his team...it just didn't show up well on the stat sheet. Oddly enough....just like Megatron many weeks! :goodposting:
 
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In general, I opt for the risk management approach--I try to avoid players that will have poor weeks. In general, it's worked well for me compared to trying to predict who's going to blow up against whatever crappy defense picks this week to shine.

But still, it's a crapshoot most of the time. Despite the rumblings of experts, whether fantasy gurus or ex-players, every week there are surprises. What we have to remember is that all of our predictions and projections are based on what's already happened. Conversely, coaches gameplan for the upcoming week (that is, what's going to happen) and have to be willing to throw it out the window to react to what's actually happening in the game itself. This makes it incredibly hard to predict anything beyond opportunities--targets and touches--and even then, there are times when Fitz will be covered and only get 4 targets in a game, or when some third-down back inexplicably gets 15 carries because the starter pulls a muscle or can't find running room between the tackles.

We're always working at a disadvantage. Working at 75-80% efficiency is pretty good, and probably all you can reasonably expect.

 
Also another reason why I love 16 team league.

Usually your option is Calvin or Marty Booker.

You may have a couple of teams with a big abundance of 1 position, but not many.

And those will usually consolidate.

 
Accept the fact that luck is a huge factor in FF.

Try to roster guys that are talented and in good situations.

Gather all the quality information you can, make a decision.

Don't second guess yourself because there is no way to reliably and accurately project human behavior.

Projections and guesses are synonyms in this hobby. Yours is as good as anyone's.

And, again, accept that luck is a large part of FF.

 
comfortably numb said:
Also another reason why I love 16 team league.Usually your option is Calvin or Marty Booker.You may have a couple of teams with a big abundance of 1 position, but not many.And those will usually consolidate.
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I find that holds true in 16 team redrafts, but not always in dynasty leagues where some of us are better at picking players or discerning talent at one position.Unless of course you're an active trader and can find teams that need your strength. It's weird sometimes though, in my "main league" I have the fortune of having CJ3, AD, LT and Sproles (easy to decide who to start) but received a very good offer where I'd land SJax for a couple WRs who are in a rotation as my #4 - I didn't take it because I didn't want that many points on the bench and those WRs are "my players".
 
fwiw I only used this forum with a bit of rotoworld sprinkled in this year and have now won 7 in a row to finish the reg. season in first place. Regardless, I was lucky as much as anything. :goodposting: Try not to sweat it much.

 
I have determined that "logic" and "my application" of it are as much a factor in losing as my weekly opponent is.

it seems to have been a weird year.

 
GreenNGold said:
I have learned the hard way, over and over again (and despite a very sore rear end), that "experts" should only be used to bring new players to your attention, or to correct you on players that you either way overestimated or way underestimated. For example, you should not bench Santiono Holmes EVER. Even if FBG ranks him as the 69th receiver in a 3 WR league. In cases like this, the experts are just out-smarting themselves. Although he is not a #1 stud, there is no reason for people like Devin Hester to be ranked in the 20's while Holmes is in the 60's, backup QB or not (I mean after all, isn't CUTLAHHHHH the equivalent of a backup QB???). Fortunately, when this site makes a mistake it is usually pretty blatant (such as ranking Favre as the #30 QB earlier in the year). That being said, I'm glad the advice I do take is from this site and not CBS. Pete Prisco and Clark Judge are quite possibly the worst fantasy "analysts" I have ever had the displeasure of listening to.
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Santanio Holmes is not a fire-and-forget every week starter.
 
there is not enough overanalysis in the world to have me take out VD from the lineup this year. THat is just poor form. he's putting up WR1 numbers...

Other than that, yeah, I'm in the camp of, 'I'm as informed as anyone on any pay service staff' These guys are not jaws or scheffler or NFL insiders with direct lines inside team clubhouses. They are people like you and me, albeit with more time to focus on this stuff, that gather data and make educated guesses. Regardless, VD should be starting in 100% of leagues, regardless of matchups he faces or other TEs on your team face...

 
FUBAR said:
comfortably numb said:
Also another reason why I love 16 team league.Usually your option is Calvin or Marty Booker.You may have a couple of teams with a big abundance of 1 position, but not many.And those will usually consolidate.
Click to expand...
I find that holds true in 16 team redrafts, but not always in dynasty leagues where some of us are better at picking players or discerning talent at one position.Unless of course you're an active trader and can find teams that need your strength. It's weird sometimes though, in my "main league" I have the fortune of having CJ3, AD, LT and Sproles (easy to decide who to start) but received a very good offer where I'd land SJax for a couple WRs who are in a rotation as my #4 - I didn't take it because I didn't want that many points on the bench and those WRs are "my players".
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I was talking dynasty.There are a couple of teams that have a hard choice at a position each week, but very few.I have just found that 12 team leagues often have many teams with at least 1 position having to make a difficult decision each week.
 
I have been a paid member of the site for 3 straight years, but I do it only to support the site. The only time I even click into the "paid subscription area" is to check targets on Tuesday mornings. I never look at their or anybody else's rankings. I've been playing fantasy football for 11 years and follow it VERY closely. I have my own opinion of every player and every situation. I don't need someone else to tell or help me manage my team .... ever.

I think there is a lot wrong with the paid info from this site, but this is certainly on you. Not FBG.

 
JMJ said:
I have been a paid member of the site for 3 straight years, but I do it only to support the site. The only time I even click into the "paid subscription area" is to check targets on Tuesday mornings. I never look at their or anybody else's rankings. I've been playing fantasy football for 11 years and follow it VERY closely. I have my own opinion of every player and every situation. I don't need someone else to tell or help me manage my team .... ever.I think there is a lot wrong with the paid info from this site, but this is certainly on you. Not FBG.
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Ditto pretty much. But I need to add that there is probably a lot wrong with your opinions too (and mine...only less so of course).
 
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