What we learned this year - WR (1 Viewer)

Stud WRs are safe investments - Of the consensus top four WRs (Moss, Fitz, Andre, Calvin), only one failed to finish in the top 6 WR in PPR leagues. Wayne and Welker were also studs that went in the top 10-12 WR of most drafts. Other WRs that were in the top 10-12 WRs of most drafts (White, Jennings, Colston, Boldin, Steve Smith) managed to finish in the top 20-25 WRs, none were unmitigated busts.
New offensive-minded head coaches can trick us into seeing a breakout where there is none - A lot of us got took by spending a 3rd/4th round pick on Dwayne Bowe or Eddie Royal because the new head coaches there had overseen offenses with stud WRs at their previous jobs. Bowe seemed like a good facsimile for Boldin and Royal for Welker, but the offenses never really got humming, and neither ever got in a groove.
Don't confuse wideouts who get hurt in their second year with busts - Miles Austin, Sidney Rice, and Mike Sims-Walker had all shown flashes of greatness in the early parts of their careers, but injuries in 2008 kept them from seizing a bigger role. In 2009, this trio asserted their right to spots among the group of true #1 WRs.
More rookie WRs make an impact every year - After a big debut by Eddie Royal and DeSean Jackson in 08, a season with no first-round picks at WR, we were wondering which of the first-round WRs of 09 could be productive early. Answer: All of them (well, except for DHB). Crabtree, Nicks, Maclin, Harvin, and Britt all had fantasy relevance this year, and all will be good upside picks next year. WRs drafted later on like Mike Wallace, Johnny Knox, Mike Thomas, and Austin Collie all got on the fantasy radar with play that exceeded expectations. Out with the old, in with the new.
Avoid damaged goods - Donnie Avery, Antonio Bryant, Lance Moore, and Chaz Schilens all came into the season recovering from injuries/surgeries that kept us from seeing them much in August, and none of them ever came close to providing the kind of value promised by strong stretches in 2008.
Don't bet a premium pick on the WR without a good QB - Calvin Johnson and Antonio Bryant defied this one in 2008, only to see Calvin submarined by it this year. Some folks got snookered spending a 3rd-5th on Edwards or TO even though they had no proven QB to speak of. Lee Evans was also a complete bust b/c of poor QB play.
Old WR that you can set your watch by continue to be undervalued - Same names as always, Ward, Driver, Mason... all outproduced their draft slot. Of course, Torry Holt and Laveranues Coles were barely rosterable despite similar expectations, but the shark play continues to be taking that WR in the 7-9th round that everyone has avoided because they are waiting for the breakdown year.
The fifth round is about where reward outweighs risk when forecasting breakouts/Continuity is good - Earlier I mentioned Royal and Bowe letting us down because forecasted breakouts never happened. A round or two later you could have grabbed similar players like Santonio Holmes, Vincent Jackson, and DeSean Jackson, all of which were keys to putting together a strong team in start 3 WR leagues. The other difference here is that all of this group entered 2009 with the same QB and head coach as 2008.
Late round WR picks should focus on youth with good to great QBs throwing to them - Mario Manningham, Robert Meachem, Austin Collie, Pierre Garcon were all great late round picks (along with some of the rookies and MSW, Rice, and Austin), and other than MSW, they all have good to great passing QBs. Guys like James Jones, Jacoby Jones, Julian Edelman, Mike Wallace, Early Doucet, and Legedu Naanee could be great late picks on this theory next year.
Patience, Grasshopper - Top-end WRs like Roddy White, Miles Austin, Marques Colston, Greg Jennings and Vincent Jackson all had slumps, but owners who stuck with them were rewarded.
Roy Williams is just not that good - No explanation needed here.
Take a chance on the diva WR who is dropping too far because of August drama - Brandon Marshall was a massive value because he was looking like a guy who might not even be active on gamedays early in the season. Michael Crabtree's holdout caused him to fall out of some drafts. Dwayne Bowe would be the exception here except his price never really dropped while he and Todd Haley were at odds in the preseason.
Odds and ends - I'm not sure what the takeaway is from: Ochocinco flourishing despite a deemphasized passing game, Housh bombing despite being on a pass-first team. I'm not sure what to make of Steve Smith filling a #1 WR vacuum wonderfully and Devin Hester seeming to only to be outperformed by Devin Aromashodu when he got hurt. Kevin Walter gave way to Owen Daniels as the #2 option in the Houston passing game and didn't really step up his numbers when Daniels went out. Bernard Berrian was somewhat brittle again and fell to the #3 option on a team that he was the #1 on last year.What did you learn in 2009? How will it affect your WR drafting in 2010?

Sigmund Bloom said:

Old WR that you can set your watch by continue to be undervalued - Same names as always, Ward, Driver, Mason... all outproduced their draft slot. Of course, Torry Holt and Laveranues Coles were barely rosterable despite similar expectations, but the shark play continues to be taking that WR in the 7-9th round that everyone has avoided because they are waiting for the breakdown year.

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Thanks, man. These "What We Learned" threads have been great.I've drafted Double-D for years now, but even I steered clear this year thinking the emergence of Jordy Nelson, James Jones, and JerMichael Finley would take away from Driver's numbers... but they didn't. The guy's amazing. I'm so glad to have him on my real team, now I just need to get him back on my fantasy team.

Derrick Mason has been gold for me the past few years. When he was on the Titans I thought he was only good because McNair locked onto him. Now I understand why McNair locked onto him: he's a great receiver. One of those guys who quietly gets it done every year. I doubt he'll be effective much longer, but it's been quite a run.

I think you touched on an important trend. More and more young WRs are coming into the league ready to contribute immediately. I don't know if it's the tougher competition in college, the earlier physical maturity, or the more acute desperation of the teams that draft these guys, but it's getting to the point where you can expect a talented WR prospect to start for his team immediately.

As for Ocho vs. Housh, I think the explanation is simple. Ocho is far more talented. Always has been. He's one of the top 5-6 WRs of the past decade. Housh is a slightly above average starter. He's no better than someone like Jerricho Cotchery.

EBF said:

As for Ocho vs. Housh, I think the explanation is simple. Ocho is far more talented. Always has been. He's one of the top 5-6 WRs of the past decade. Housh is a slightly above average starter. He's no better than someone like Jerricho Cotchery.

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That's fair. Ive never been high on Housh and avoided him in drafts this year. He and Kevin Walter are both examples of guys who have been producing over their heads coming back to earth this year. I think Housh will drop off quickly a la Darrell Jackson. Abandon ship in dynasty leagues.

Don't be in a rush to grab one too early because you can win without a stud WR.

Excellent post, Bloom. Will we see these for RB and QB as well (or did I just miss them?)?

Brandon Marshall's season has been shocking to me. I never thought he had a chance at a 100-catch season at the height of MarshallMcDanielsGate. I was scared off by that, and surprised he didn't drop even more. It seems like a very, very long time since he played de factor cornerback in practice.

mac daddy said:

Excellent post, Bloom. Will we see these for RB and QB as well (or did I just miss them?)?

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You missed them. Still on first page.

Sigmund Bloom said:

3. Don't confuse wideouts who get hurt in their second year with busts - Miles Austin, Sidney Rice, and Mike Sims-Walker had all shown flashes of greatness in the early parts of their careers, but injuries in 2008 kept them from seizing a bigger role. In 2009, this trio asserted their right to spots among the group of true #1 WRs.

5. Avoid damaged goods - Donnie Avery, Antonio Bryant, Lance Moore, and Chaz Schilens all came into the season recovering from injuries/surgeries that kept us from seeing them much in August, and none of them ever came close to providing the kind of value promised by strong stretches in 2008.

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3 and 5 on your list seem to be contradictory and picking and choosing what we learned based purely on individual result.

Avery said:

Sigmund Bloom said:

3. Don't confuse wideouts who get hurt in their second year with busts - Miles Austin, Sidney Rice, and Mike Sims-Walker had all shown flashes of greatness in the early parts of their careers, but injuries in 2008 kept them from seizing a bigger role. In 2009, this trio asserted their right to spots among the group of true #1 WRs.

5. Avoid damaged goods - Donnie Avery, Antonio Bryant, Lance Moore, and Chaz Schilens all came into the season recovering from injuries/surgeries that kept us from seeing them much in August, and none of them ever came close to providing the kind of value promised by strong stretches in 2008.

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3 and 5 on your list seem to be contradictory and picking and choosing what we learned based purely on individual result.

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3 is based on injuries last year - Don't think a guy is a bust just because he misses his train due to injury - Austin and MSW had flashes last year, Rice in 07, but their 08s were derailed by injury. They were all healthy heading into 2009.5 is based on injuries/surgeries in preseason that mean the player is entering the year as damaged goods. By implication that means Bryant, Moore, Avery, and Schilens will all be value picks next year.

Avery said:

picking and choosing what we learned based purely on individual result.

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Several of the points are good, but most of them fall into the category above. Many of these things are just purely coincidental, and many of them have had completely opposite results in recent years.

Sigmund Bloom said:

Avery said:

Sigmund Bloom said:

3. Don't confuse wideouts who get hurt in their second year with busts - Miles Austin, Sidney Rice, and Mike Sims-Walker had all shown flashes of greatness in the early parts of their careers, but injuries in 2008 kept them from seizing a bigger role. In 2009, this trio asserted their right to spots among the group of true #1 WRs.

5. Avoid damaged goods - Donnie Avery, Antonio Bryant, Lance Moore, and Chaz Schilens all came into the season recovering from injuries/surgeries that kept us from seeing them much in August, and none of them ever came close to providing the kind of value promised by strong stretches in 2008.

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3 and 5 on your list seem to be contradictory and picking and choosing what we learned based purely on individual result.

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3 is based on injuries last year - Don't think a guy is a bust just because he misses his train due to injury - Austin and MSW had flashes last year, Rice in 07, but their 08s were derailed by injury. They were all healthy heading into 2009.5 is based on injuries/surgeries in preseason that mean the player is entering the year as damaged goods. By implication that means Bryant, Moore, Avery, and Schilens will all be value picks next year.

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Who is throwing the ball to the people in 5? Still value picks?

cowboysin07 said:

Sigmund Bloom said:

Avery said:

Sigmund Bloom said:

3. Don't confuse wideouts who get hurt in their second year with busts - Miles Austin, Sidney Rice, and Mike Sims-Walker had all shown flashes of greatness in the early parts of their careers, but injuries in 2008 kept them from seizing a bigger role. In 2009, this trio asserted their right to spots among the group of true #1 WRs.

5. Avoid damaged goods - Donnie Avery, Antonio Bryant, Lance Moore, and Chaz Schilens all came into the season recovering from injuries/surgeries that kept us from seeing them much in August, and none of them ever came close to providing the kind of value promised by strong stretches in 2008.

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3 and 5 on your list seem to be contradictory and picking and choosing what we learned based purely on individual result.

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3 is based on injuries last year - Don't think a guy is a bust just because he misses his train due to injury - Austin and MSW had flashes last year, Rice in 07, but their 08s were derailed by injury. They were all healthy heading into 2009.5 is based on injuries/surgeries in preseason that mean the player is entering the year as damaged goods. By implication that means Bryant, Moore, Avery, and Schilens will all be value picks next year.

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Who is throwing the ball to the people in 5? Still value picks?

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Freeman has shown me enough that I think Bryant will be fine with him if Tampa brings AB back. Moore will have Brees. Schilens will be fine as a "last WR on your bench" pick if Gradkowski is the QB. Avery is the big ? here - even with Bulger, you have to wonder if he is just brittle - still the explosiveness we saw in 08 for a few games there was DeSean like, so if Avery falls past the 12th round next year, will be hard to leave him on the board.

Sigmund Bloom said:

Don't bet a premium pick on the WR without a good QB - Calvin Johnson and Antonio Bryant defied this one in 2008, only to see Calvin submarined by it this year. Some folks got snookered spending a 3rd-5th on Edwards or TO even though they had no proven QB to speak of. Lee Evans was also a complete bust b/c of poor QB play. What did you learn in 2009? How will it affect your WR drafting in 2010?

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The quoted one is the most important one for me. If we could see the future I would also say to avoid picking wrs with bad offenses: this year that would be any wr from car (pre moore), kc, tb, buf, wsh, cle, oak and stl. In fact anyone who had S.Smith rostered earlier in the year should have quickly traded him for anything by at least the 5th game of the season when you have a lot of data showing that Delhomme was not cutting it.

Bloom, have you done these types of threads for the past few seasons? If so, can you link them?

Sigmund Bloom said:

New offensive-minded head coaches can trick us into seeing a breakout where there is none - A lot of us got took by spending a 3rd/4th round pick on Dwayne Bowe or Eddie Royal because the new head coaches there had overseen offenses with stud WRs at their previous jobs. Bowe seemed like a good facsimile for Boldin and Royal for Welker, but the offenses never really got humming, and neither ever got in a groove.

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I think Royal going 91-980 5 as a rookie and Bowe going 86-1022 7 in his second year had a lot more to do with people being high on them than the new head coaches.

Sigmund Bloom said:

5 is based on injuries/surgeries in preseason that mean the player is entering the year as damaged goods. By implication that means Bryant, Moore, Avery, and Schilens will all be value picks next year.

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Based on what? Only Bryant of the group has produced for any length of time. The other 3 were all hype jobs based on a handful of games. The reason guys like Driver, Mason, and Ward are such value picks year in and out is that everybody keeps flocking to some hyped up young receiver. I'll keep drafting the consistent vets. If Bryant is healthy, he's a solid fantasy WR, but keep in mind that his production wasnt so studly when his team had other quality receivers. I've said it before and I'll say it again, the only players with an injury risk are those who are currently hurt. On that you are right. But any WR is capable of a big week. If you continue to fall for young WRs who had a few nice games, you'll continue to miss out on the real values. What about Avery or Schilens ever made you think they were a legitimate stud? Just because they played on teams who were desperate for a WR to step up doesnt make them any more talented than the average joe WR in the NFL. The whole team's #1 WR label is ignorant and a recipe for bad draft picks. The reason Andre Johnson catches 100 balls is because he's a stud, not because he's the team's WR1.

Chase Stuart said:

Brandon Marshall's season has been shocking to me. I never thought he had a chance at a 100-catch season at the height of MarshallMcDanielsGate. I was scared off by that, and surprised he didn't drop even more. It seems like a very, very long time since he played de factor cornerback in practice.

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Definitely shocking. And now at the end of the season we are seeing what I thought had a chance of happening all year. Benched, hurt or not hurt, tough or not tough, ready to sign somewhere else, etc..... Never saw his week 1-16 coming the way it did.

BigTex said:

Don't be in a rush to grab one too early because you can win without a stud WR.

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Not necessarily, just as the folks in the RB thread saying that the days of going RB/RB in the first two rounds are dead ain't necessarily right either.The names on the jerseys change, and the names on the jerseys that make fantasy owners' hearts go pitter-pat may change, but the lessons stay the same. Do your homework, be flexible, and be active. Knock those three things out and you'll be fine.

I simply learned that you can massacre a league on the Waiver Wire @ WR.

I made some pretty slick pick-ups this year at the WR slot.

If I don't heavy draft uber WRs in the early round, I am not that worried.

Sigmund Bloom said:

Stud WRs are safe investments - Of the consensus top four WRs (Moss, Fitz, Andre, Calvin), only one failed to finish in the top 6 WR in PPR leagues. Wayne and Welker were also studs that went in the top 10-12 WR of most drafts. Other WRs that were in the top 10-12 WRs of most drafts (White, Jennings, Colston, Boldin, Steve Smith) managed to finish in the top 20-25 WRs, none were unmitigated busts.

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robz0r said:

I simply learned that you can massacre a league on the Waiver Wire @ WR.

I made some pretty slick pick-ups this year at the WR slot.

If I don't heavy draft uber WRs in the early round, I am not that worried.

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As a dynasty-leaguer, the two above have basically been my WR rules of thumb. 1) True Studs are worth the investment.

2) If you can't get true studs, there are ALWAYS rookies, FAs, or late-rounders that can provide huge value.

Those two simple rules are sort of true for all positions, but especially true at WR -- there are fewer stud WRs that bust than RB/TE, and far more cheap players that emerge to contribute above their pre-season value throughout the season. The bigger value in Bloom's list here is helping sort out who the true studs are versus guys who are way overvalued, and the same goes for figuring out which guys to take fliers on in the late rounds, rookie draft, or waiver wire.

robz0r said:

I simply learned that you can massacre a league on the Waiver Wire @ WR.I made some pretty slick pick-ups this year at the WR slot.If I don't heavy draft uber WRs in the early round, I am not that worried.

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Yes, if you were the guy who grabbed Austin and Garcon you're probably in good shape. My guess is not too many people who play in competitive leagues were able to grab both or consistently grab guys who helped a lot. I just don't like relying on the wire as if my team is doing fairly well, I don't get the guys if they've had a nice game and I don't always know who to grab ahead of time, sometimes it works, but sometimes my leaguemates are pretty smart.

Kilroy1872 said:

BigTex said:

Don't be in a rush to grab one too early because you can win without a stud WR.

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Not necessarily, just as the folks in the RB thread saying that the days of going RB/RB in the first two rounds are dead ain't necessarily right either.The names on the jerseys change, and the names on the jerseys that make fantasy owners' hearts go pitter-pat may change, but the lessons stay the same. Do your homework, be flexible, and be active. Knock those three things out and you'll be fine.

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I went RB/RB/RB/RB and one of those was Ronnie Brown I came out like a fat cat. I didn't say this was the only way but the you don't need a stud WR to win. IMHO WR are easier to find off of the WW. This was the first time I used this method and it worked for me but the lineup options must be considered and this was perfect for the options available.I'll I can say is CHA CHING!

About this point:

"# Odds and ends - I'm not sure what the takeaway is from: Ochocinco flourishing despite a deemphasized passing game, Housh bombing despite being on a pass-first team. I'm not sure what to make of Steve Smith filling a #1 WR vacuum wonderfully and Devin Hester seeming to only to be outperformed by Devin Aromashodu when he got hurt. Kevin Walter gave way to Owen Daniels as the #2 option in the Houston passing game and didn't really step up his numbers when Daniels went out. Bernard Berrian was somewhat brittle again and fell to the #3 option on a team that he was the #1 on last year."

I think that the bottom line in all these cases is elite talent or lack thereof. Housh never was as good as people thought based on his performance in CINN where Ocho drew the double coverage and Hester and Berrian really are not special receivers either. In the end, maybe this rule should be talent is the bottom line.

kinda torn on what to expect from Bowe next season. He has the talent and the offense that should exploit it but something doesnt click there with him in KC i would really like to see him traded to a place like a say Baltimore and be Flacco's go to guy to be honest then have another year with Haley there.

Meachem to me has top 25 upside but its hard to predict what will happen in that NO offense on the ball distribution, i think he will do good just another guy im ton on.

Even though i think Jennings did well this year i do think he could explode next year as his stats were sub par somewhat after the season he had and will be a good value pick imo.

2 seasons ago the WR options on the WW were bare so I went WR heavy in most of my drafts this season and it backfired a bit. I still doubled up for the year but could have been so much better.

What I learned is that if you build your plan entirely on last season then you will end up regretting it. This year seemed the exception with the number of break-out WR's that could be had on waivers combined with the number of 12-30 WR's that failed.

It really depends on the league.

Shallower leagues - get studs, take high upside fliers, if the high upside fliers don't pan out quickly replace them with waiver wonders

Deeper leagues - get studs, take A LOT of high upside fliers, if one or two pan out or you get a several ok players you're set

Dynasty leagues - be proactive, add high upside guys buried on rosters, and most importantly be patient. I have 16 WR's currently on a 50 man roster, my league mates heckle me because I have little depth at DL and zero depth at DB but those guys can be replaced. I went into last offseason with 19 WR's and that included Sims-Walker, Sidney Rice, and Burleson then I added Wallace and Harvin via the draft. This offseason I've got Doucet, James Hardy, Brandon Tate, Marko Mitchell, and several others. More will be added via the draft too

Don't know if that will work for you, but that's worked for me.

Is it just me or does it seem like the 2009 WR draft could go down as one of the best ever.

Crabtree - Looks like he could be headed to an AJ type career

Maclin - Will be half of a dynamic duo with Jackson for quite awhile.

Harvin - Is a great athlete and has Rice drawing coverage away from him

Nicks - Had some drops, but should continue to develop nicely.

Britt - Hopefully VY won't hinder his growth.

Wallace - Ben loves to take at least 1 or 2 shots way downfield for Wallace each game and he is also becoming a better route runner.

Johnny Knox - Pure speed with good hands. Its what DHB was supposed to be.

Austin Collie - Good talent in a great situation.

I could easily see 4-5 of these guys eclipsing 1000 yds a year for many seasons to come.

Not to be critical of hard work here but is anyone willing to take the lessons learned and apply them to previous years and review/post the results?

I have not looked at the data but I seem to hold on to the belief that Stud WRs in the past were not necessarily good investments. There are also a few other lessons learned that seem a bit suspect and results oriented.

One example of this is Garcon. I contend the only reason he had a good year was because of injury to a starter.

Again, good information but I would not be too quick to consider the tidbits as lessons learned to be used next year as much as I consider them nice observations regarding this year.