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The 2010 Rookie Scouting Portfolio-Available for download! (1 Viewer)

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Matt Waldman

Footballguy
If you didn't know, Footballguys.com does have its own rookie evaluation publication designed specifically for the positions that most fantasy owners need to know about, and it is on site.

It's called The Rookie Scouting Portfolio and for all the details you want about my method of analysis and samples from past publications, you can download the 2010 RSP here:

The 2010 Rookie Scouting Portfolio page

In the weeks leading to my annual release of this publication, I have posted samples of player evaluations from previous years not available on the info page or past threads. I have also maintained a running tally of players I have evaluated thus far for the 2010 publication so you can see who you'll be able to read about.

The 2010 RSP is included in your 2010 subscription and I'm going to brag hard about this publication: You will be blown away by the RSP if you have never checked it out. You may not agree with all the conclusions, but you will know without a shadow of a doubt that I put in the work to deliver you a thorough analysis, and hopefully a highly insightful look at the rookies at the skill positions who are draft eligible.

Many thanks to those of you who have let me know you benefit from the RSP, it's definitely something I love to do. I continue to learn more with each season, and I look forward to sharing those things in the 2010 publication.

Here's a tally of over 170 players, give or take a few who didn't declare that I forgot to delete from this list (pardon the misspellings of some names as well). However, you get the idea that this is a pretty sizable list of guys.

QBs RBs WRs TEAaron Opelt Alan Bradford Aaron Valentin 2x's Aaron Hernandez 2x'sArkelon Hall Andre Anderson Alric Arnett 3x's Andrew Quarless 2x'sBill Stull 2x's Andre Dixon Andre Roberts 3x's Anthony McCoyChris Todd 3x's Anthony Allen Antonio Brown 2x's Dedrick Epps 3x'sColin Kaepernick Anthony Dixon 3x's Austin Pettis Dennis Pitta 2x'sDan LeFevour 2x's Roy Upchurch 2x's Brandon LaFell 4x's Ed Dickson 2x'sDanny Sullivan 2x's Baron Batch Bryan Anderson 2x's Garrett Graham 4x'sDarryll Clark 2x's Ben Tate 3x's Carlos Singleton 2x's Jermaine Gresham 2x'sDustin Scherer Brandon Minor 2x's Chastin West 2x's Jesson SalyardsGreg Paulus C.J. Spiller 3x's Damian Williams 4x's Jim DrayJarrett Brown Carlos Brown Damola Adeniji 2x's Jimmy GrahamJevan Snead Charles Scott 2x's Danario Alexander 2x's Michael Palmer 2x'sJimmy Clausen 2x's Chris Brown 3x's Demaryius Thomas 2x's Nate ByhamJonathan Crompton 2x's Cordera Eason Demetrius Byrd 2x's Nick Tow-ArnettKevin Riley Curtis Steele 3x's Desmond Tardy Riar Geer 2x'sMatt Grothe 2x's D.J. Harper Dez Bryant 3x's Tony ThompsonMax Hall 2x's DeJuane Collins Dezmon Briscoe Michael HoomanawanuiPatrick Pinkney 2x's DeMarco Murray Duke Calhoun 3x's Rob Gronkowski 3x'sRyan Colbourn Demaundray Woolridge Emmanuel Sanders Colin Peek 2x'sSean Canfield 2x's Dexter McCluster 3x's Eric Decker 2x's Richard DicksonTim Tebow 4x's Dimitri Nance 2x's Freddie Barnes Dorin Dickerson 2x'sTodd Reesing 2x's Dominique Lindsay 2x's Gerard Jones Tony MoeakiTony Pike 2x's Dwight Tardy Golden Tate 2x's Zac Robinson 2x's Jacob Ramsey 2x's 2x's Greg Bolling Levi Brown 2x's Jahvid Best 2x's Greg Mathews 2x's Joe Webb (WR) Jake Sharp Jacoby Ford 2x'sColt McCoy 2x's James Starks James Rodgers Armanti Edwards Javarris James 2x's Jared Perry2x's Juice Williams 2'x Jeremy Avery Jeremy Ross Sam Bradford 2x's Joe McKnight 3x's Jeremy Williams Riley Skinner Jonathan Dwyer 4x's Jordan Shipley 3x's Thaddeus Lewis Keiland Williams Kerry Meier 3x's Tim Hiller Keith Toston Kyle Williams Joey Elliott Kendall Hunter Marcus Easley Corey Leonard Luke Lippincott Mardy Gilyard 4x's Mike Kafka Mikell Simpson Marquis Hamilton MiQuale Lewis 2x's Menelik Holt Moise Plancher 2x's Michael Moore Montario Hardesty 2x's Mike Williams Rashawn Jackson Naaman Roosevelt Ryan Mathews 3x's Nyan Boateng 2x's Shawnbrey McNeal Oderick Turner Stafon Johnson 3x's Preston Parker Toby Gerhart 4x's Riley Cooper 2x's Stanley Havili Robby Parris Keithen Valentine Ryan Whalen LaGarrette Blount 2x's Seyi Ajirotutu 3x's Lonyae Miller Shay Hodge 2x's Daniel Dufrene Slick Shelley Michael Smith Stephen Williams Joseph Turner Taylor Price Kevin Harris Terrell Zachary Daniel Porter Titus Young Jamelle Eugene Trey Stross 2x's Toney Baker Verran Tucker 2x's Brandon West Wes Lyons Roy Upchurch 2x's Rich Gunnell Reggie Arnold Justin Jarvis Brandon Banks 2x's Attrail Snipes Adron Tennell David Gettis Arrelious Benn 2x's Delashaun Dean David Reed Terrence Austin Blair White 2x's Rod Owens Scott Long Chris McGaha 3x's David Nelson Xavier Bowman Brandon Thompkins Moe Brown 2x's Carlton Mitchell 2x's = ';Samples (some found and not found elsewhere and eventually, 2010 samples)

Steve_Smith.pdf

Ted_Ginn.pdf

Jason_Snelling.pdf

Matt_Moore.pdf

Troy_Smith.pdf

Jerome_Harrison.pdf

Darren_McFadden.pdf

2009_QB_Overview_and_Reports.pdf

2008_RB_Reports_and_Rankings.pdf

Devin_Aromashadu.pdf

Jamaal_Charles.pdf

Hakeem_Nicks_Sample.pdf

Sammie_Stroughter.pdf

Ray_Rice.pdf

Matt_Forte.pdf

Josh_Freeman.pdf

Shonn_Greene.pdf

Glen_Coffee.pdf

A._Foster.pdf

 

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Can't wait to get my hands on it. Especially since I have a 5-6 hour flight to Ireland this weekend.

IMHO this is a MUST read. Matt really does the work and tells it the way he sees it. Had a couple of GREAT picks this year with Austin Collie and and I think Stafford. In prior years, he has lead me to Ray Rice in a PPR no less and Mike Sims Walker. I hope he is right on Cedric Peerman because I just got him as a throw in on a trade. If you are like me in a Zealots league, go back and read the prior years as it helps with the RFA/UFA process.

 
I respect Matt Waldman's work tremendously, and I can tell you that he does his homework and then some on the rookies. His insights are detailed and accurate and the RSP encompasses a body of work that not many of us would have the patience to take on. He does every season, so he gets my stamp of approval.

Two months? Fantastic stuff, Matt. :confused:

 
I hope he is right on Cedric Peerman because I just got him as a throw in on a trade.
He's the one who stuck out to me last year. Any thoughts on his impact in Detroit, Matt?
I asked Russ Lande and another former scout at the Senior Bowl about Peerman while having a discussion about players they have hit and missed during their careers. Some of the guys working with Lande commented that they liked Peerman as well, but it was mentioned that his pass blocking was really suspect in Ravens camp, which hurt his chances in that stacked backfield they had with Rice, McGahee, McClain, and Parmele. It was mentioned that most backs get their first shot as third down backs and you can't get that shot if you can't pass protect. While this could turn out to be a miss for me, Peerman has the character pluses, the speed, the receiving skills, and the power to surprise a team if he can upgrade his pass protection skills. Right now, he's so far off the radar in Detroit that the media never even mentions him as a possibility. I'm still hanging onto him through this summer to see if he works hard enough in the off-season to get better. They also mentioned that Xavier Omon was a guy who needs to mature a little bit emotionally. They said he tends to slack off with his work ethic when there doesn't seem to be immediate hope of playing time and hopefully he can a little more mentally tough in this respect now that he's in Seattle with a new opportunity. Misses like these happen. We'll see if Peerman turns out to be one of those. I'm already disappointed about it, because I really liked what I saw from him at UVA. However, he is the second back at UVA I liked (Wali Lundy) who didn't do much. Lundy had flashes at Houston, but never stuck. I'd like to say it is the system there, but it's not much different from other offenses I study on film. Although I have missed on guys like Peerman, Lundy, Omon and others, I didn't bite on guys like Darren McFadden or LenDale White and touted players like DeAngelo Williams, Maurice Jones Drew, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Ray Rice higher than my peers. Plus gave high scores to players like Mike Bell, Bruce Gradkowski, Sammie Stroughter, and Austin Collie , who have surprised with flashes of strong skills.
 
Matt's RSP is good stuff. :goodposting: Matt, you mentioned Bradshaw and Rice, to name a few, but I think Mike Thomas is another guy you should mention when discussing players you touted. I know you can't name everyone, but I like this kid, and he had a pretty solid rookie season.

 
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Matt's RSP is good stuff. :blackdot: Matt, you mentioned Bradshaw and Rice, to name a few, but I think Mike Thomas is another guy you should mention when discussing players you touted. I know you can't name everyone, but I like this kid, and he had a pretty solid rookie season.
Thanks - and I'll throw in the Giants Steve Smith as another I really liked as a rookie who has blossomed into a player Jerry Rice even predicted big things from at the start of the 2009 season. I think the nice thing is I try to cover players who may not even be significant names on draft day but still have a shot to develop: Mike Bell, Joey Haynos, Kellen Davis, and Selvin Young are all guys with pretty extensive write ups that give you a sense of their game and a head start on being aware of their potential if and when an opportunity arises.
 
I echo the sentiments of the others in this thread. Last season was the first year I was able to take advantage of it, and absolutely looking forward to the next one and beyond...

 
Matt, love the RSP. In lieu of what happened with Peerman, should we be putting more emphasis on blocking in RB evaluations, or do you feel this is too hard to pick up from college film, and something young backs typically struggle with anyway?

 
Truman said:
Matt, love the RSP. In lieu of what happened with Peerman, should we be putting more emphasis on blocking in RB evaluations, or do you feel this is too hard to pick up from college film, and something young backs typically struggle with anyway?
Good question that I'm still thinking about. Looking back at my Peerman notes, I had him rated as a pretty good pass protector. He engaged DEs with a stand up technique and steered them away from the pocket. He wasn't prone to telegraphing cut blocks the way I see many backs do. As a run blocker, I watched him peel back in a hole to take on a defender a seal a lane for a teammate. There negative I probably could have done a better job of highlighting and considering in his overall evaluation was that he didn't really deliver a punch as a pass protector in the way you would like to see a player do. His technique was more passive (mirroring the defender). Facing defenders like the Ravens, I'm sure this got exploited quickly. Looking back at previous evaluations, I have made good calls in the past; Addai (good) and Harrison (bad) as prominent examples. Not that I don't have more to learn, but the not only was the pass protection reason something I didn't expect, but the whole deal that Peerman is on his third team (and barely with one of the worst performing teams in the league) is a big surprise to me. Still, it's a big lesson for me to consider whether a back not only squares up a defender and moves his feet well, but he also can deliver a punch and maintain hand position on the defender throughout the block. If I apply what I learned to Peerman's score, he would have dropped a bit but not so much that I wouldn't have rated him a sleeper. I probably wouldn't have had him in my top five, but he would still have been close. I would have still expected him to pick up pass blocking because of his reputation as a high-effort teammate who works hard. I'm also waiting to see how this story develops - if at all - this spring. Should you take blocking more seriously? I wish I had a pat answer for you, but I don't. It all depends on how a team uses a player. A guy like Darren McFadden had some serious issues when he had to face an edge defender one-on-one, but if the team is only going to use him a a receiver or runner, then it doesn't matter as much as a team that will rely on their back to pass protect. You don't see Adrian Peterson used much in pass protection. My take: if the back isn't a high-round pick, give pass protection a little more weight because he has to work his way up the depth chart. If the back is a high-round pick and expected to contribute as a runner early, give it a little less...unless that team really uses its backs for pass protection. Another issue with Peerman was health. He was dealing with a thigh injury that limited him at the end of Ravens camp. Did this thigh injury bug him all year? It was listed a reason in some reports why the Browns waived him: he couldn't help right away if he weren't healthy - and as a sixth-round pick waived by an RB-rich team, a team could write him off pretty quickly. I try to view it all with this perspective: I'm always going to rate these guys how I see them. As with anyone who does this, I'll have accurate and inaccurate evaluations. And it's important to note that these views often take longer than a year to work out. If Mike Bell were a camp invitee with the NY Giants he probably would have been cut rather than made the opening day starter as a rookie in Denver. Plus Bell looked like a flash in the pan to some after he got cut by Denver, didn't do anything in Houston, and wound up a key contributor with New Orleans. Not that he'll ever be a superstar, but I think his performance has justified the rating I gave him in college, which is in essence a player capable of starting for a team but not a franchise back - most people I read didn't even consider him a guy to make a roster. I typically give a player 3-4 years before I completely give up on them. No one is interviewing a guy like Peerman for obvious reasons. But if he makes some noise in Lions camp, I wouldn't be surprised to learn more about why he bounced around so early when reporters ask him what happened.
 
I heard that a lot in the media - but I think it's an overblown (borderline ridiculous) assertion.

1) Peerman had only one fumble in 448 touches prior to the 2009 Senior Bowl.

2) He demonstrated good ball protection skills throughout his career, unlike a guy like Adrian Peterson, who still has issues.

3) Ricky Williams has small hands - he's known as one of the best receiving RBs in the game among coaches. He fumbles some, but it hasn't halted his career. Mental health issues medicated by marijuana was his major road block.

 
First, I want to give a plug for Matt: he is the main reason I subscribed to FBG last year. I like all the writers for FBG but evaluation of college players for my rookie, dynasty league draft is a personal weakness and Matt is a godsend.

Second, one of the things I like about Matt's method is how rigorous and objective it is. If you want someone to tell you who to draft you can look at his rankings, but if you know a lot about the rookies yourself you can look at game by game analysis and then judge for yourself. As a rationalist, I really appreciate his method and the fact that you can use his observations to judge for yourself if you like.T

Third, I really appreciate his attitude of trying to continually improve. The bottom line is that no system of prediction will be perfect--if it were the NFL draft would be a much stronger predictor of success than it is. But the sort of self-evaluation you see even in this thread is a sign of a deep thinker and I respect that.

 
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First, I want to give a plug for Matt: he is the main reason I subscribed to FBG last year. I like all the writers for FBG but evaluation of college players for my rookie, dynasty league draft is a personal weakness and Matt is a godsend.

Second, one of the things I like about Matt's method is how rigorous and objective it is. If you want someone to tell you who to draft you can look at his rankings, but if you know a lot about the rookies yourself you can look at game by game analysis and then judge for yourself. As a rationalist, I really appreciate his method and the fact that you can use his observations to judge for yourself if you like.T

Third, I really appreciate his attitude of trying to continually improve. The bottom line is that no system of prediction will be perfect--if it were the NFL draft would be a much stronger predictor of success than it is. But the sort of self-evaluation you see even in this thread is a sign of a deep thinker and I respect that.
Thanks to all of you for the feedback and recommendations of the RSP - I want to point this one out because it touches upon what I'm trying to do here. I just finished listening to former Ravens and Browns scout Daniel Jeremiah's podcasts on iTunes. I highly recommend them if you haven't checked them out or listened to him on The Audible. Anyhow, Jeremiah is doing a series on each position; explaining what scouts look for and gives an overview of how they grade players. I will be listening to these again because while I found things I want to use to update the grading system of the RSP for 2011, I also have to say that I feel even more confident about the basic structure of my evaluations based on his points. I found that I break some of the skills down in more detail than these scouting reports. I'm not saying that I do it better. Some of these scouts have years of experience and understanding of technique that I'm just beginning to learn. However, I do believe there are cases where I do it as well with these positions and maybe in some isolated cases, better.

Some of the ways I breakdown skill areas could be combined or separated in different ways, which I'm going to explore for next year. There are also some areas that might be worth adding that are not as objective, but provide me an easier structure for you to see how I look at players in a way that ties together my analysis. It will also feed into some interesting summary reports.



Things Jeremiah mentioned that validated things I've been thinking for years:

1) He said poise is his most important factor that he looks at with a QB. It's a very general statement, but I believe if you apply it to quarterbacking skills, you look at how much a quarterback can do between the time he lines up under center and releases the ball. I know that sounds all too obvious on the surface, because it encompasses everything he should do as a passer:

-Reading the defense pre-snap

-Adjusting the play based on the read

-The exchange

-The drop

-Any play fakes during the drop

-Scanning the field during the drop, and if you're really advance, what order you scan the field to throw off your competition and open a passing lane

-The set up

-The ability to sense pressure and react to it without losing your set up to throw the ball quickly

-The ability to change your decision quickly with your down field read.

-The release

Notice none of that has to do with accuracy, distance, or velocity of the throw. These three things I mentioned are baseline skills that all QBs should have "enough" of. However, the more of the 10 things I mentioned in bullets that a QB can do on a consistent basis before he throws the ball, odds are he has the poise and preparation to be a successful player once he adjusts to the speed and complexity of the NFL game.



2) WR is the least favorite position for scouts to evaluate because it's the toughest to get a bead on. This was somewhat of a relief to hear someone from the scouting community say. I was telling Lammey on Facebook today that I think one of the reasons why it is so tough for WRs to transition to the NFL is because there is a serious lack of consistent positional coaching at the college level for this position. Some get a lot of coaching because they are in a pro style offense. Others get a minimal amount due to playing in a spread and as Jeremiah put it, run only simpler routes like slants, go routes, and bubble screens. Some, like Pittsburgh WR Mike Wallace explained that they go no positional coaching until they were seniors under a new regime. Considering he played at a major SEC program, that should tell you we're just not talking about someone like Greg Betterson at Delta State who said essentially the same thing.

Jeremiah also mentioned players he missed and hit on. He talked about how much he liked the Giants Steve Smith - one of my favorite players coming of the draft that year. I liked him because he played in a pro route system, ran the tough NFL routes like the skinny post and dig routes, showing toughness to take the hit and catch the ball with good technique. I watched him make his QB look good more times than his QB should have looked (Matt Leinart). However, I also learned that to an extent, I missed the boat on guys like Sidney Rice and Robert Meachem because I got too caught up in hands technique. I'm beginning to learn that this can be taught if the player shows some tendencies in games to try to catch the ball with his hands in at least certain situations. I'm realizing he might have a longer learning curve, but not to write him off. Early Doucet's apparent emergence (slowly) is another example. It has me more encouraged about a guy like Golden Tate.

3) With RBs he talked about pass protection and ball protection. I heard him echo today a sentiment I had written in an earlier post above - if you are a high-round pick ball protection isn't going to cost you as much. However, if you're a 4th-6th round pick and fumbling in camp or practice, forget it. He didn't say it, but I imagine pass protection would also fit in that category (Peerman).

After hearing a scout break down the way they score players, I also have some real critiques with the structure of their scoring system. I think their system could be improved in terms of objectivity so scouts across the entire organization are for sure operating with the same way they score criteria (and I know they don't just based on how he describes the scoring system). This could make the process more efficient, accurate, and manageable.

My background was in operations management for large teams of employees. Not only did I have to create, implement, and manage recruiting, training, continual development, and payroll, but I also had to monitor performance. Eventually I got involved in monitoring performance for (as many as 75 at one time) branches in the company as a director for this area. I learned a lot about best practices used by top companies in manufacturing and retail sectors that were applied to my sector of business. A lot of those best practices were about finding a way to create a performance evaluation tool that took subjective criteria and objectified it as much as possible without losing the best things about the qualitative data.

Over time, I simply realized that what I had been doing for years (before I became a full-time writer) was something I could apply to evaluating football prospects. So yeah, I'm always thinking about this stuff :lmao:

 
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Last year was the first time I got to look through the RSP. Loved it.

It allowed me to make informed decisions in regards to my leagues Rookie

draft.

Keep up the awesome work, Matt.

I am looking forward to this years edition. :loco:

 
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Having the RSP in PDF format is great. I have referenced them several times here during the Zealots RFA/UFA period.

 
BTW - If you're interested in previous years of the RSP, I'll send you 2006-2008 at no charge with a 2010 Footballguys subscription. Just contact me for details.

 
BTW - If you're interested in previous years of the RSP, I'll send you 2006-2008 at no charge with a 2010 Footballguys subscription. Just contact me for details.
This is awesome that you are providing these again Matt! I took you up on it last year and I found some invaluable data with which to work with. Much appreciated. Those of you who already have your subscription paid for 2010 should also take Matt up on his offer, ASAP. The RSP's from previous years is some damn good info for anyone who is serious about winning a FF championship!!! Especially those of you in dynasty leagues!!!Rody
 
I found them valuable in re-drafts as well because you can get a great handle on guys skillsets - particularly those who are just emerging and getting opportunities. You won't get a deeper look.

 
Random Thoughts as I'm studying film for this year:

QBs

-Sam Bradford has a lot of Matt Schaub in him, and I'm not talking about the propensity to get hurt. Although come to think of it...let's hope that isn't the case. I think Bradford is what Matt Leinart fans hoped the Cardinals QB would be.

-I like QBs who can slide away from pressure and climb the pocket. Two mid-tier signal callers who can do this are Duke's Thaddeus Lewis and Wake Forest's Riley Skinner. Lewis also reads the field pretty well and he looked good this year under the tutelage of QB guru (Manning brothers) David Cutlcliffe - who according to a news report this year said Lewis had the best QB performance in college game he's ever coached, including the Mannings. He's one of those guys that I think could hang around the NFL and develop into a good back up with potential to be productive over time. One of the reasons is his ability to read and anticipate.

-The more I watch Jimmy Clausen the more I like him. Bradford is more accurate, but Clausen might be more refined with how he manages an offense.

-Zac Robinson and Dan LeFevour might make this a better QB class than the pundits keep saying it is. Robinson has all the tools to develop and I think Lammey is closer to being right about LeFevour than many think.

- I'm rooting for Tebow, but if I'm looking for a physical stud to make my QB project it's Juice Williams from Illinois. I'm cheering as much for him to get it together as I am Tebow.

RBs

-Ryan Mathews or C.J. Spiller? Mathews hands down. He's not Donald Brown, folks. And speaking of which, Donald Brown ain't a bad thing to be. He had his moments in his first season. I think any back in the Colts system with Manning under center will continue to be under appreciated. Mathews has excellent balance and way better vision than some people seem to think. Spiller has strong open field vision, but he's more of a runner that reacts to what is in front of him. Mathews has shown me plenty of times that he is reading the field a step ahead of what he's doing, which makes him a better between the tackles guy.

- Name to remember: Shawnbrey McNeal, SMU RB - June Jones said he was the best receiving RB he's ever coached at any level. He transferred from Miami to SMU and left after one year due to family hardship. If you're looking for a mid-round gem at RB, he might be it. I like that he has no qualms about getting physical with a defender at the end of the run despite the fact that he's more of an agility guy. He makes himself small in the hole and knows how to get those extra yards between the tackles.

- If Sam Bradford is what fans thought Matt Leinart should have been, then I believe wholeheartedly Mississippi State RB Anthony Dixon is what fans thought (soon to be former) Titans RB LenDale White should have been. Dixon has more burst, better feet, much better savvy to squeeze through tight spaces, and catches the football better than most of the RBs in this class, and he wants defenders to feel the pain when the run ends. Maturity is the only question mark that prevents him from being a big-time contributor.

- Remember the name Daniel Thomas from KSU...he'll be on the forefront of your minds this time next year.

- Mark Ingram? I haven't studied his game, nor have I studied Trent Richardson's, but that freshman's game flies off the screen and slaps you to attention. He might draw some Adrian Peterson comparisons.

- A player I watched last year, came away impressed, and can't wait to watch again to make sure I saw what I thought I saw: RB James Starks, Buffalo.

WRs

- Jacoby Ford is more of a track guy playing football than I wish he was. I'll explain in more detail when the time is right. In fact, Clemson would have been much better if they could have gone across state and stole Andre Roberts from that military compound in Charelston. Remember that Jerome Simpson kid from a small school everyone got excited about and Cincy took him? Roberts will make a much faster impact.

- David Reed of Utah has a game that might be the love child of Austin Collie and Wes Welker, leaning more towards Welker. Not as good as either, but if Camarillo can make a team, Reed might.

- I'm an Emmanuel Sanders fan. He's rough around the edges, but he's a really athletic football player - a Jacoby Ford corollary. I know I'm dissing on Ford; he's not horrible, he's just going to get picked too high for his own good because he runs fast in shorts.

- Three projects who will have promising careers with the right system: David Gettis (Baylor - who The Audible has been hyping), Seyi Ajirotutu (Fresno State - who I've been hyping for two years), and Marcus Easley (Connecticut).

- Two players not to waste your time on (Al Davis specials - yes, Tom I know you denied this, but the proof is in the pudding...): Alric Arnett (WVU) and Stephen Williams (Toledo) - more athletes than football players.

TE

- If you're looking for a TE who can block and catch, Dennis Pitt and Rob Gronkowski are your guys.

- Garrett Graham is a better prospect than Travis Beckum was. I thought so last year and my mind hasn't changed after watching him again this year. Beckum has high upside, but Graham is more Owen Daniels just at his floor.

- Keep an eye on Riar Geer of Colorado. Probably will bounce around, but don't be surprise if he develops in a few years. He has the size and initial quicks along with good hands to be a long-term surprise.

 
Excerpts from an email I sent to a Facebook group I have on the RSP (If you want to join, just look me up on Facebook and make a friend request, I'll issue you an invite):

This Week's Take: Gimmicks

My good friend, Draftguys writer, and fellow Footballguy, Cecil Lammey has inspired this week's take. Last weekend I had the good fortune of spending a few hours in the studio with Lammey during his Sunday morning broadcast on KFAN 104.3, and we continued our debate of Mississippi State RB Anthony Dixon.

Before I get into this, know that I respect Lammey's takes a great deal on players and we enjoy the debate. We both have the philosophy that it's more enjoyable to highlight the differences in our views because we learn things from each other. There are a ton of players we agree on, but it's the differences that make this process interesting. Dixon happens to be one of them.

Lammey's take on Dixon is that the 6-1, 233-pound runner has thin legs, doesn't get yardage after contact, and gets most of his significant production out of a spread formation play where the offense runs a counter play.

For those of you who aren't familiar with the counter, it's a play where the RB comes out of his stance by taking a step with the foot in the opposite direction to where he is actually moving. The step is usually a backwards step, referred to sometimes as a "drop step." The intent of this step is to get the defense - especially linebackers - to take a step or two in the direction opposite of the path the play will be going. This gives the offensive line an advantage to secure blocks and open a hole for the runner. This also buys time for a guard to pull across the formation as a lead blocker through the gap the play is intended to flow.

The counter play is a fairly common run we've seen made famous by the Washington Redskins during the Joe Gibbs era (part one) with John Riggins as the ball carrier.

Lammey contends that Dixon's deficiencies as a potential NFL runner are hidden by the counter play from the spread formation because he's merely breaking off big runs through big gaps. Cecil, if I'm not characterizing the gist of your argument, let me know and I'll correct it next week.

My take is that the counter play might be somewhat of a gimmick, but it's not to mask the Dixon's deficiencies. Let's look at some examples.

The first play is against LSU. It's this spread counter play with Dixon taking the ball behind the pulling guard and FB, but he doesn't follow these players through a big hole. He shows the vision to cut back to the inside, squeeze through a narrow gap, and bounce off two players before pushing the pile for the first down on this 3rd and 5 play. He gained two yards through the pile by keeping his legs moving to finish this run and get the first down. This is a good example of vision, getting small into a crease, balance to bounce off hits, and good pad level and leg drive to finish a run.

The second play is a good example of what Cecil mentions about pitching the ball into space and having lots of room to run. This is not a play you will see much in the NFL unless the player has a ton of speed, so I agree it's more gimmicky from a pro standpoint. However, look how Dixon finishes the play, leaping from the three yard-line over the defender to defeat his angle and get into the end zone. This is an example of short area explosiveness, agility, and anticipation of angles that you don't usually see from a big runner. I have also seen Dixon get the corner like this and bait the edge defender into thinking he's going to deliver a stiff-arm, but dip the shoulder instead. This forces the defender to take a poor angle and miss a hit. This is a sign of a runner who has a refined nature to finishing runs, because he's as likely to dip the shoulder and truck a runner to his backside as he is make a small move (or in this case a big one) to elude him altogether.

The third play is a garden variety draw play. Two things worth pointing out: First, Dixon presses the hole off LG by heading initially to RG, drawing the LB to that gap and then making a quick dip to LG. This forces the LB to collide into his teammate and Dixon gets positive yardage. Second, look at the pad level as he finishes the run. It's very low. This is not something you see that often from a 6-1, 235-pound runner. He runs low. True, he's chopped at the legs and falling forward for much of that finish, but you'll see this pad level again - just look at the next two plays where he lowers the shoulders and drives the legs. Both plays are zone blocking scheme runs from the spread formation, and not counters.

The next play after these two (1:27) is a counter play, but look at the great patience he has to wait for his blocks to develop, step through the trash, lower his shoulders into a hit, and keep his legs moving for another four yards to nearly get the first down. That's no gimmick; that's patience, pad level, and determination.

The play after that? I-formation against an eight-man front on 3rd and 1. Good patience behind the pulling guard and good pad level to get across the marker.

The last two plays I'm not glossing over because they work against my point, but we've seen similar things in previous plays: he finishes the run with the type of extension we'd see from a Marion Barber.

I'm sure the debate will continue, but that's my two cents on the subject. Unless frequent Audible guest, and former NFL scout Daniel Jeremiah has changed his mind, he said skill-wise Dixon was the best RB at the Senior Bowl.

The reason Dixon will drop has to do with lack of game-breaking NFL speed and character concerns about maintaining his fitness level, attending meetings, and a DUI charge this summer.

 
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VoryZover,

The 2010 RSP will be read the first of April. That's the publication date pretty much every year. There will also be an email from FBGs that will announce where to find it in addition to me posting on this thread where you can go to get it.

Thanks for asking, let me know if you need anything else.

 
Just a personal note. There are some games you just can't wait to watch. Today I get one of those games: 2009 Alabama-Florida.

-My first extended look at Mark Ingram (for next year)

-My first extended look at QB Greg McElroy (for next year-and I'm already impressed w/some things after the first drive)

-Julio Jones vs. Joe Haden

-My second look at Roy Upchurch, who impressed me versus Va. Tech at the top of the 2009 season

-David Nelson and Riley Cooper

-Colin Peek

-Tim Tebow against another fast defense.

I'll probably spend 8 hours on this game and it will be a blast. This is one of those times after watching a ton of games that makes it fun.

 
Excerpts from an email I sent to a Facebook group I have on the RSP (If you want to join, just look me up on Facebook and make a friend request, I'll issue you an invite):

This Week's Take: Gimmicks

My good friend, Draftguys writer, and fellow Footballguy, Cecil Lammey has inspired this week's take. Last weekend I had the good fortune of spending a few hours in the studio with Lammey during his Sunday morning broadcast on KFAN 104.3, and we continued our debate of Mississippi State RB Anthony Dixon.

Before I get into this, know that I respect Lammey's takes a great deal on players and we enjoy the debate. We both have the philosophy that it's more enjoyable to highlight the differences in our views because we learn things from each other. There are a ton of players we agree on, but it's the differences that make this process interesting. Dixon happens to be one of them.

Lammey's take on Dixon is that the 6-1, 233-pound runner has thin legs, doesn't get yardage after contact, and gets most of his significant production out of a spread formation play where the offense runs a counter play.

For those of you who aren't familiar with the counter, it's a play where the RB comes out of his stance by taking a step with the foot in the opposite direction to where he is actually moving. The step is usually a backwards step, referred to sometimes as a "drop step." The intent of this step is to get the defense - especially linebackers - to take a step or two in the direction opposite of the path the play will be going. This gives the offensive line an advantage to secure blocks and open a hole for the runner. This also buys time for a guard to pull across the formation as a lead blocker through the gap the play is intended to flow.

The counter play is a fairly common run we've seen made famous by the Washington Redskins during the Joe Gibbs era (part one) with John Riggins as the ball carrier.

Lammey contends that Dixon's deficiencies as a potential NFL runner are hidden by the counter play from the spread formation because he's merely breaking off big runs through big gaps. Cecil, if I'm not characterizing the gist of your argument, let me know and I'll correct it next week.

My take is that the counter play might be somewhat of a gimmick, but it's not to mask the Dixon's deficiencies. Let's look at some examples.

This kind of analysis is exactly what the doctor ordered to take Footballguys to the next level. Thanks Matt, and I'd encourage Joe to take note and get more of this kind of in-depth analysis player by player (with youtube examples no less) that also goes into these technical football tactical explanations. I'd love to see a lot more of this type of thing to help the subscribers become better analysts of player talent in our own rights!Thanks Matt!

:shrug: :excited:

 
Excerpts from an email I sent to a Facebook group I have on the RSP (If you want to join, just look me up on Facebook and make a friend request, I'll issue you an invite):

This Week's Take: Gimmicks

My good friend, Draftguys writer, and fellow Footballguy, Cecil Lammey has inspired this week's take. Last weekend I had the good fortune of spending a few hours in the studio with Lammey during his Sunday morning broadcast on KFAN 104.3, and we continued our debate of Mississippi State RB Anthony Dixon.

Before I get into this, know that I respect Lammey's takes a great deal on players and we enjoy the debate. We both have the philosophy that it's more enjoyable to highlight the differences in our views because we learn things from each other. There are a ton of players we agree on, but it's the differences that make this process interesting. Dixon happens to be one of them.

Lammey's take on Dixon is that the 6-1, 233-pound runner has thin legs, doesn't get yardage after contact, and gets most of his significant production out of a spread formation play where the offense runs a counter play.

For those of you who aren't familiar with the counter, it's a play where the RB comes out of his stance by taking a step with the foot in the opposite direction to where he is actually moving. The step is usually a backwards step, referred to sometimes as a "drop step." The intent of this step is to get the defense - especially linebackers - to take a step or two in the direction opposite of the path the play will be going. This gives the offensive line an advantage to secure blocks and open a hole for the runner. This also buys time for a guard to pull across the formation as a lead blocker through the gap the play is intended to flow.

The counter play is a fairly common run we've seen made famous by the Washington Redskins during the Joe Gibbs era (part one) with John Riggins as the ball carrier.

Lammey contends that Dixon's deficiencies as a potential NFL runner are hidden by the counter play from the spread formation because he's merely breaking off big runs through big gaps. Cecil, if I'm not characterizing the gist of your argument, let me know and I'll correct it next week.

My take is that the counter play might be somewhat of a gimmick, but it's not to mask the Dixon's deficiencies. Let's look at some examples.

Glad you like it. I have received other similar feedback. I think I'm going to incorporate a YouTube segment into the weekly Gut Check column beginning in May and ending in December. Mostly college players. But until then, if you have a request for me to do a YouTube snippet like this for another player and post it here, suggest one. Some guidelines to follow:Suggest a YouTube clip that doesn't have the flashy cinematic edits on the turf level with huge closeups of the player so you can't see the defensive and offensive formations. These are entertaining but detract from the context of the play, which is important.

Make sure it's a QB,WR, RB, or TE.

That's about it, for now.

I'll hunt for some, too.

 
Here's excerpt of one of my first evals on a QB - Bruce Gradkowski. He was my No.4 QB behind Cutler-Young-Leinart in 2006 and I really had him even with Leinart score-wise. Leinart got the edge (despite the fact I had him as an overrated player) because he would get a better opportunity immediately. Gradkowski was one of my sleepers. When I used to do my adjusted scores with combine info, Gradkowski, Cutler, Whitehurst, and Young were my top four in that order.

Player: Bruce Gradkowski Date: 11/22/2005 Opponent: Bowling Green

Overall Strengths: Gradkowski is very accurate. He is the first QB in Division I-A history to have consecutive seasons with a 70% accuracy on completions (sophomore and junior seasons). I think this guy would make an excellent west coast quarterback. He plays the QB position much like a point guard (which he was a good one at the prep level) in basketball: He distributes the ball and runs plays in a way that helps deceive the defense and create openings to score. This is a heady football player that understands the game and how to execute plays to the benefit of his offense. He throws a very catchable ball. One of his best traits is his poise under pressure. His team really looks to him for leadership. He continued to bring his team back in this game. If he can stay healthy, Gradkowski has the skills to start in the NFL and be a very good player. He should be able to fit into any offense due to his ball handling, arm, and decision making in the pocket. He is one of my favorite QBs in this draft class.

Overall Weaknesses: Gradkowski doesn't have a monster arm. He can make most of the throws well enough, but doesn't have great velocity on the money throws like the deep out. He has some injury history that, combined with his height, will scare off teams. He occassionally tries to make some higher risk plays in tight coverage and doesn't look off the safety on deeper throws. I did not see Gradkowski throw a ball away to prevent a sack.

Accuracy: Gradkowski displayed good accuracy in tight coverage on his first throw: A third down curl where the receiver turned inside toward the defender in the zone. The QB threw it to the receiver's outside shoulder so the WR could shield the ball from the defender and prevent the potential INT. He hesitated on a deep slant and wound up throwing the ball a little too high for the WR to grab--a pro WR probably would have been expected to catch it because Gradkowski still led the receiver well enough on the play. He made a nice short throw to his TE on a roll to the left off a spread formation play fake. The ball was a little low, but with good touch and looked easy to catch. On the next play, Gradkowski faked to the RB and rolled right, throwing a touch pass 20 yards to a receiver in the right corner. The pass was very catchable, but went between the receiver's hands. When he misses, he has a tendency to overthrow the ball. He missed a wide open player up the seam on 3rd down that would have gone for a TD. Yet overall, Gradkowski is a precise quarterback that leads receivers effectively. Gradkowski made an excellent play fake and roll to the left where he delivered a strike to the TE on the run for his second touchdown. His third TD pass was a half roll to the left and he delivered a great pass that lead his man to the corner of the endzone. Gradkowski anticipates his receivers well on short to intermediate routes.

Arm Strength: Gradkowski has pretty good arm strength but a notch below the elite arms in this draft class. He has decent velocity on throws up the middle of up to 25 yards. He made a nice, 45-yard throw off play action to a wide- open receiver. The throw and the actual reception were 45 yards in length. He is consistently on target with his throws all over the field. He threw a perfect, 30-yard strike to Odom in the corner of the endzone but went through the WR's hands. The ball traveled 40 yards in the air and the play was pass all the way, no play fake--just a quick set and throw. He hit a solid, deep out from the far side of the field in the 4th QTR.

Delivery: Gradkowski stands tall in the pocket and steps through his throws. He might dip a little low on drops and take wide steps, but little to discuss here—he does a nice job.

Decisions: Gradkowski does a good job taking what the defense will give him. He reads the field pretty well. In the 2nd QTR, he did a nice job getting outside and buying time with a play fake under pressure to freeze an oncoming DL so he could deliver a pass down the sideline. Gradkowski scans the field consistently on his drops. Throughout the game he would make a couple of reads before checking down to his RB. He did a nice job with this on a first down throw late in the 2nd QTR. Gradkowski will try to squeeze intermediate throws into tighter coverage or double coverage at least a few times a game. After you watch him play, you don't expect him to do this because he manages the offense so well for much of the game, but he'll occassionally try to force a throw. It is not done enough to grade him down, because he generally makes the throw to a spot where the receiver has a clear opening and the throw has enough precision where the likely result is either a reception or an incompletion. Gradkowski needs to look off the safety. He stared down a route that nearly got his receiver killed with a shot to the head. Gradowski throws the ball to everyone in his offense. He uses the TE very well as primary options and also does a good job with check downs to backs. He effectively beat the CB blitz by throwing the TE on the blitzing side.

Ball Handling: Gradkowksi holds the ball high towards his shoulder with his free hand protecting the ball. He completes handoffs to set up his play fakes with his back to the defense and crouching low. He does a pretty good job freezing the defense with his fakes. Gradkowski protects the ball well when he decides to run the football. I'm impressed with his understanding of the play action game. He does a good job with the little things when the ball is in his hands that helps his team make big plays. On a rollout pass to the left for a TD, Gradkowski showed great ball handling by keeping the ball hidden from the defense to suck in the LBs while the TE ran a drag route over the middle.

Pocket Presence: Gradkowski slides around the pocket pretty well and has a good sense of the pass rush. Although he doesn't always make quick decisions, Toledo gives up few sacks and that has a lot to do with Gradkowski's ability to sense pressure and make sound decisions with the ball. Despite this fact, Gradkowski still needs to work on throwing the ball away. The first time Gradkowski broke the pocket to run was with 6:20 in the 2nd QTR. The Toledo

QB demonstrated a very good internal clock on this play. He stood tall in the pocket, scanned the field and at the 3 second mark after the snap, he didn't see it, but sensed the defender coming off the backside. Just before the defender could get to him, Gradkowski took off. He had a lot of time on his first TD pass with 1:11 in the 2nd QTR. Gradkowski did a nice job sliding forward, pump faking, and then delivering to a wide open receiver from 29-yards out. He was sacked for the first time in the 4th QTR, but had avoided at least 4 sacks in the game thus far. He was then sacked a second time in an untimely situation on 4th down in the 4th QTR. The defender came off the backside and though the QB was sliding away from this side, he took too much time, and was blind-sided. This would have been a good time to throw the ball away.

Scrambling Ability: Gradkoswki is a shifty scrambler when he has to run. He actually has a pretty nice burst when he commits to running the ball—he is deceptively fast. He can pick up first downs and beat angles in the 1st and 2nd tiers of the defense with his speed. Although the NFL likes QBs to be at least six-four, there are some good players under that height. The fact that Gradkowksi moves well in the pocket and has the speed to break runs when necessary should earn him a chance to convince some doubters.

Durability: Gradkowski has dealt with some injuries throughout his career. Last year he broke his throwing hand in the MAC Championship game. The break required offseason surgery, but Gradkowski actually played out much of the game with this break and threw some TD passes. He also had a dislocated left shoulder earlier this season that cost him a game.

Character: He plays with a great sense of poise and has brought his team back from deficits. Gradkowski is an excellent leader that keeps his team in the game and methodically drives them down the field. He plays well under pressure both in terms of the situations of the game and under physical pressure. He drove his team the length of the field to tie the score with less than 2 minutes in the 4th QTR. He demonstrates good situational awareness. He showed excellent poise to call time out at the goal line when his team looked confused with lining up in the correct formation. After the time out the team executed a perfect half roll to the left and Gradkowski threw on the run for a score. He won the game in the second overtime on a third down half roll to the right and throw across the field to a wide-open TE in the corner of the endzone.

 
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This kind of analysis is exactly what the doctor ordered to take Footballguys to the next level. Thanks Matt, and I'd encourage Joe to take note and get more of this kind of in-depth analysis player by player (with youtube examples no less) that also goes into these technical football tactical explanations. I'd love to see a lot more of this type of thing to help the subscribers become better analysts of player talent in our own rights!Thanks Matt! :bag: :thumbup:
I second this notion entirely. Besides what is great about the RSP in general, your generosity in sending past years' RSPs and my going through the analysis while in turn thinking about how it translated into the actual players' careers really helped me understand a great deal more. Will be an invaluable resource for me this season and hopefully for years to come...!
 
Would love a review of Ryan Matthews. This is from the highlight video thread. If you think there's a better video out there, us that instead.

Ryan Mathews
There are probably better ones, but I'll use this one because I'm doing this on the fly....:09 - Can't see much about the formation and the defense. Still, you can see that Mathews has a huge hole off LG and makes a nice head fake to get outside of the safety and beat the defense to the left sideline for a long score. Runners who can execute good head fakes generally have a suddenness to their movements. We'll see if there is more in this tape that supports that notion. He also does a good job carrying the ball under his sideline arm down the left side of the field. When runners do a good job of protecting the ball to the correct side like it's second nature, it's another positive.

:20 - Shows nice balance to run through a hit at the ankles by the safety coming from the outside as he clears a hole off RG from what looked like a single back set. Once he gets into the open field, he's gone. Again, he kept the ball tight against his body. He has the burst to pull away if a defense blows its opportunity when they put 8-9 men in the box like they did here.

:29 - Single back set versus eight in the box. He gets two nice blocks in the second level by his linemen up the middle. Some might say he's lucky and he just guesses correctly. I see a runner who carries the ball with his head up and his eyes down field. I see s runner who processes information a little faster than the average runner in college football and runs to daylight. If he guessed right I don't think he would have been so quick to know when to dip outside of two blocks at the second level to make this a long TD rather than an 8- or 10-yard run. Again, the ball is in his outside arm (another indication he knew where the cut back was as he makes the quick switch in the hole and uses a stiff arm to ward off the defender as he reaches the left flat). Not that I dislike Ryan Grant, but I'm not sure if that's a compliment to Mathews' explosiveness and vision.

:44 - This is one of those plays where you first look at it and think, "How does he find that hole to get to the open field?" Upon further examination, you see Mathews run with his head up as he approaches the LOS, watching the LBs get engaged at the second level before he even hits a huge hole off LG. Once he gets into the hole, he shows the awareness to make the subtle duck of his head to get through the second level and that play is over. He outruns Kyle Wilson down the flat for the score. The blocking on the last two plays were terrific, but Mathews also shows the ability to see that second crease as he's running through the first one. Darren McFadden had runs people might think looked similar, but McFadden generally burst through an initial crease and had tons of room to run. These two runs required reacting a step ahead. If he failed, the line blocked well enough that he had a healthy gain between the tackles. But he succeeds and you see the results.

:51 - Screen pass, nice open-field vision to get across the middle for a nice gain. Does he beat the final defender around the corner? Nope. Big deal, he already ran 80 yards on this play, getting much of the yardage on his own due to his vision to set up down field blocks and cut across the field. Do we know the context of this play? Nope. How many times did he get the ball on this drive beforehand? Did he just have a big run? Even if he doesn't, that's a play most would be very happy with.

:52 - Good burst around right end against Wisconsin's defense on a designed run to the outside and a second gear to get into the secondary.

1:12 - He kept his feet moving at the end of this run for extra yardage and was able to keep short enough steps to elude the first attempt on the cut across the middle after clearing the initial hole. If you watch Mathews enough, you'll begin to see a pattern in some of his runs - he does a good job finding and hitting that second hole after clearing the line of scrimmage.

1:19 - Mathews spots the cutback lane immediately after getting the ball from the QB in this single back set and dips through a crease off LT to get a nice gain. After the segment with the dive in the end zone he shows good speed to bounce around right end and patience to dip away from traffic to get there.

1:48 - Good balance to run through hits to his legs at the end of a crease up the middle and the speed to prevent the DB from closing the gap in a footrace over 50 yards down field when the DB was literally ahead of Mathews but too wide of the RB to maintain his pace and close the gap.

1:55 - They show this play from a different angle, and you get to see how well Mathews presses the gap to the inside shoulder of his lineman. He at first takes an angle that forced the front-line defender and the safety to take outside angles. Then Mathews makes a sharp cut to the inside shoulder and a second dip to the middle of the field once he clears the hole. He covers the ball with both arms as he reaches two second level defenders on the cutback, running through a hit and then he's gone because this dip has already put him in a situation where that safety can't close the gap. Lucky guess? Too many lucky guess not to say he's an instinctive runner.

2:21 - After two segments showing the same dive over the pile. We see Mathews beat the angle of a DB to the left sideline and then dip the shoulder and dive for the pylon. Less savvy runners try to use the stiff arm right away on a DB in that position, which slows their progress to the pylon. Both Mathews and Dixon show the propensity to be patient with when and how they deliver a blow to end a play, or extend their bodies.

2:35 - Wildcat play where you see he's not a player that is going to be brought down with arm tackles and he once again spots daylight in the second level after hitting a crease up the middle.

2:44 - Runs through the wrap of a DE after hitting a crease and finding a cutback to left end just past it. The DE is a Tulane player and those guys are a little undersized lately - I haven't checked if this is the case, but even if that DE is the size of an NFL LB, you see the leg drive, the balance, and power to break a wrap. He follows up with a stiff arm in the open field to get the edge.

The next three runs are also against Tulane - really not fair - Tulane is not a good defense. Mathews gets a lot of room up the middle, easy choices, and uses his speed to get yardage.

Runs against Illinois - not much to say that hasn't been said until 3:36 - nice dip at full speed to put the DB on his butt to get to the left flat.

3:55 - Two small moves and some balance to create glancing blows as he exits the hole; good job switching the ball to the outside arm as he cuts across the field at the second level. Technically pretty sound player.

When you get the 2010 RSP you'll see one of the games is against Rutgers from two years ago that shows Mathews doing other things you don't see here.

 
Some of your observations are bewildering.... I could barely make out the players on some of this grainy footage....

 
Some of your observations are bewildering.... I could barely make out the players on some of this grainy footage....
Bewildering is right on ... which is why this is so AWESOME.Some other players that would be interesting:SpillerDwyerBestMcClusterD. Thomas
 
Some of your observations are bewildering.... I could barely make out the players on some of this grainy footage....
Two reasons why I could although I agree tough to see at first: -A nice-size iMac-I have watched some of these games of his on TV, so I remember some of the plays.
 
Counting down to the RSP is tantamount to counting down to Christmas or (insert thing you look forward to most in your year). My printer is going to be getting plenty of action on April 1st! :shrug:

 
If you're a Facebook friend of mine, you probably saw my post yesterday that stated I could beat Jonathan Dwyer one-on-one if he were assigned to pass block me. Dwyer has an inch and a half on me in height, 25-30 pounds of weight, and nearly two decades of youth, quickness, and strength. So I was exaggerating, but one thing Dwyer has shown consistently in the four games I have studied is poor technique as a pass blocker.

Draft analysts opinions on Dwyer range from him getting picked between late round one and early round three and the NFL tends to treat a runner drafted in the first three rounds differently from those who get drafted in the second half of the event. A late-round runner better be able to catch on as a pass blocker early in his career, because his first shot to see the field will likely come on third down. Teams are more patient with early-round picks with pass protection deficiencies because they envision these players as future starters who don’t have as much to prove.

When it’s all said and done, Dwyer will still need to prove he can protect the passer to maximize his potential. My old classmate Doug Roberson with the Atlanta Journal Constitution, who covered Georgia Tech’s Pro Day, says Dwyer is working on his pass protection, which is a good sign that Dwyer has some self-awareness about a weakness in his game. Since most of the evaluation process for NFL scouts is finished, and most of that process is about studying film, Dwyer’s performance as a pass protector in live action shows two major flaws: telegraphing his blocks and not delivering a punch.

I watched Dwyer in four games and the flaw that gets him in the most trouble is his tendency to drop his head. Just before he moves forward to establish contact with a defender, he drops his head and leads with it. Not only does this prevent him from seeing where the defender moves, but it also eliminates any shred of balance and leverage. Defenders can sidestep the contact, grab Dwyer by the pads and throw him aside, or leap over him, and they have done all three frequently. If you hear someone tell you that we haven’t had enough of an opportunity to see Dwyer pass protect because he is in a run heavy offense, tell that person he needs to watch more Georgia Tech games. In the four games I watched, he had at least 20 opportunities to protect the passer and demonstrate this flaw a vast majority of the time on cut blocks and standing up – even as a run blocker.

The next issue is Dwyer’s difficulty with delivering a solid hit as a blocker. Much of this problem is also connected to his telegraphing the block and losing leverage due to his head position. When Dwyer stands up a defender, he frequently mirrors the defender’s movements to stay in front but he doesn’t delivery a punch with his hands. When he does, it is lacking the power to stop the momentum of the defender. This shouldn’t be an issue for a 6-1, 235-lb. runner.

Dwyer should be able to fix these issues quickly, but it is a question mark about his game that teams will need to show due diligence before making him their future bell cow back.

As far as running style is concerned, there are additional questions. Let’s look at some YouTube highlights.

Georgia Tech’s offense uses Dwyer as a fullback and he runs three basic plays from this formation: a counter draw where he takes a drop step in a direction opposite the slant of the line before receiving the exchange with the QB; a fullback dive; and an option pitch. You will see two of these three of these plays in this two-minute highlight compilation. Each play demonstrates skills and question marks about his potential as an NFL runner.

The opening highlight versus Duke is a good example of what Dwyer can do from the fullback dive, which is s quick-hitting play up the middle. Dwyer’s most productive runs did not come from his play, but it is probably the play he ran the most because it sets up other plays in the offense. On this particular attempt, Dwyer demonstrates quick decision-making and agility. He reads the RDE penetrating to the inside shoulder of the RT, which prompts the RB to make a quick lateral cut to the RT’s outside shoulder. Within the next two steps, he makes another lateral move back to the inside to avoid the MLB. The fact that Dwyer can string two quick moves together in a short space and get downfield quickly is a nice skill. It’s even more impressive considering he’s making these decisions from half the distance to the line of scrimmage that halfbacks in the I formation are afforded. He finishes the run at the left sideline, using a good stiff arm to flatten the CB peeling off a block in the flat.

This is all good stuff: quick decisions and reactions, coupled with agility and power. Note Dwyer’s speed. In this case, the so-so stopwatch readings in Dwyer’s workouts might be somewhat revealing. Watch how No.28 – the Duke safety – begins in a trail position and winds up over top near the sideline. Dwyer is encountering traffic on this run, but as frequently as we see highlights of Dwyer running free, he’s doing it against teams stacking the box, and they are getting fooled on the direction of the run. Dwyer has enough speed to break a big play, but he will not be a dangerous game-breaker at the NFL level. A minor point that I have seen in other games that people don’t discuss a lot is something we see here: Dwyer’s tendency to run out of bounds rather than finish all of his runs as the aggressor.

The next play is against Mississippi State and their defense has 10 men within five yards of the line of scrimmage and the safety is only eight yards back – technically the entire team is in the box for this 2nd and 5 play. Because the Tech offense is running a formation with its receivers and wingbacks bunched to the line, the defense is constricted. There is no outside contain on this play and the defense gets sucked to the right with a play fake to the receiver running behind the formation just prior to the snap. With the defense flowing to the action on the end around, Dwyer slips to the left flat to catch a pass near the first down marker. He faces two defenders ahead of him and two in pursuit. He uses that good stiff arm to ward off the first defender just before he jump cuts to the inside to avoid the closest defender in backside pursuit. Dwyer shows good burst across the middle of the field and beats two defenders around the corner to the right flat before running out of bounds.

Once again, we see the same good things here that we saw from the Duke highlight: quick recognition and reactions, agility, burst, and power. Once again, we see Dwyer run out of bounds on a first quarter play. One thing that I found odd about this play: with 11 men in the box and most of them fooled to the right side with Dwyer catching a pass in the left flat and facing two defenders, why does he reverse his field against the teeth of the defense? If Dwyer beats the DBs down the left flat, he scores. Instead he risks losing the first down with his reversal of field through four defenders. This kind of decision-making will hurt him in the NFL because he lacks the special burst and second gear to make this kind of play consistently in the NFL. Watch the bowl game versus Iowa and Dwyer makes a similar mistake in his own end zone that nearly costs his team a safety. Laurence Maroney was a very athletically talented prospect with a similar problem.

The third play is against FSU with the defense giving up a huge gap between the RDT and RDE and the secondary is shaded to the left side due to Tech placing two of its three receivers outside the left hash. This play is ripe for Dwyer to bust a long run just from the scheme alone. Dwyer gets the ball on a dive play outside the RT who seals the inside. The fullback – key word “fullback,” who is much closer to the line – hits the line of scrimmage quickly and beats RCT through the hole as LB gets taken out with a cut block and the safety overruns the play. At this point, Dwyer has hit the hole with a three- to five-yard head start and shows the speed to pull away. That said, this isn’t a great example of vision or decision-making. It’s a great run play called against a poor defensive scheme to match it. Dwyer has some speed, but it appears more like the speed we saw from a young Stephen Davis or Corey Dillon. Not a bad thing, it’s just not elite.

The fourth play is an option pitch against Mississippi State’s defense. This unit has all eleven defenders in the box and is shaded to the left side. Tech runs its pitch to the right side, away from the receivers where the defense is shaded. By the time Dwyer and the QB get outside, it is the equivalent of a four-on-two fast break favoring the offense: if you want to talk about a gimmick play, forget Anthony Dixon’s spread counter that is used to simulate the I formation so the Mississippi State’s linemen have an extra step to set up its blocks, this one helps Dwyer get outside and puts him in front of two blockers facing two defender who still have to account for the QB.

Mismatch. By the time Dwyer receives the pitch, he only has to dip inside the outside block before he’s in the right flat with a huge head start on the other side of the field. He’s 40 yards downfield before he even has to encounter the defense. Note that he lacks the elite speed to consistently outrun a defense pursuing him from the opposite side of the field even with a head start: good, but not great speed. I really like how Dwyer finishes this run, because unlike the other three plays we saw, the Tech RB dips inside of his downfield blocks and scores as a result.

The fifth play against Miami is another option pitch and when Dwyer receives the ball, he has three blocks three, six, and 12 yards ahead of him to the right side. He demonstrates a good burst to get outside the first block and splits the second two that might as well be construction barrels showing Dwyer where to run. The RB once again shows his stiff arm, a play you will see over and over when ESPN broadcasts the draft because he hits the Miami defender come from the inside with the force of a boxer’s overhand left.

Let’s skip the sixth play for a moment because the final play on the tape is something we’ve already seen and I want to use the sixth play as a point leading to a conclusion. The seventh play is a dive play in the red zone against Miami. Dwyer shows the pad level, burst, balance, and led strength to break a tackle and push the pile into the end zone.

Now go back to the sixth play (1:17). It is a dive play versus Georgia. Watch how well the LG and C get into the second level to block the Georgia LBs before Dwyer even reaches the line of scrimmage. He makes a couple of nice dips in the hole, but because of these blocks, it is essentially open field running. This is a wonderful highlight, but have we seen a run in any of these scenarios where he has to show patience for a block to develop or choose an option at the line of scrimmage other than the first?

These are two things Dwyer doesn’t have to do as a fullback that might be an issue when he’s a halfback in the spread or I formation. I’m not saying it is an issue, but he hasn’t proven he has the patience or decision-making to do it because his offense doesn’t ask him to. These two skills are essential components of what separates good college runners from good NFL runners.

If Dwyer falls lower than expected in this draft it will be due to three things:

1. Poor pass protection techniques.

2. A system that didn’t ask him to show patience or more sophisticated reads at the line of scrimmage.

3. A lack of elite speed.

I think the comparisons to Stephen Davis and Corey Dillon in their youth is a good one, which should make Dwyer a nice cog in a run-based offense.

 
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Pretty damning observations of Dwyer here....
I agree. I wasn't that high on Dwyer to begin with.Even still, Waldman using Corey Dillon as a comparison leads me to believe that he could be a very consistent RB in the NFL depending on where he lands. Provided, of course, he improves his overall game. Dillon was very consistent the first six years of his career.
 
Pretty damning observations of Dwyer here....
Not sure about that...the questions about his vision are merely questions, not conclusions. My friend Doug reminded me to go back to his freshman year and watch him in the I formation - he also reminded me of Dwyer's bum shoulder that he dealt with early in the year (although this doesn't explain some similar behaviors I saw later in the year). So I'm going to see if I can do that this weekend. To me, a Corey Dillon/Stephen Davis comparison is a very good thing. If give me those two as RB1 and RB2 in their primes and I'll be happy with my dynasty league for the next 2-3 seasons. I think it also depends how you view what a good fantasy RB is. If you're counting on a starting back to be the next top-three guy, you'll be disappointed this year. Dwyer's talent is not a question. How refined that talent is, is...
 
Ruffrodys05 said:
Iron_Far said:
Pretty damning observations of Dwyer here....
I agree. I wasn't that high on Dwyer to begin with.Even still, Waldman using Corey Dillon as a comparison leads me to believe that he could be a very consistent RB in the NFL depending on where he lands. Provided, of course, he improves his overall game. Dillon was very consistent the first six years of his career.
Having watched Dillon here at UW; he was somebody that had a chip on his shoulder. It was going to be 'Corey Dillon vs. the world', when he grew up and made it into the real world. I am not sure that isn't what attracted him to Belichick.I have no idea if Jonathan Dwyer has Corey Dillon's 'chip' or his general physical and mental resilience.
 
Matt Waldman said:
Iron_Far said:
Pretty damning observations of Dwyer here....
Not sure about that...the questions about his vision are merely questions, not conclusions. My friend Doug reminded me to go back to his freshman year and watch him in the I formation - he also reminded me of Dwyer's bum shoulder that he dealt with early in the year (although this doesn't explain some similar behaviors I saw later in the year). So I'm going to see if I can do that this weekend. To me, a Corey Dillon/Stephen Davis comparison is a very good thing. If give me those two as RB1 and RB2 in their primes and I'll be happy with my dynasty league for the next 2-3 seasons. I think it also depends how you view what a good fantasy RB is. If you're counting on a starting back to be the next top-three guy, you'll be disappointed this year. Dwyer's talent is not a question. How refined that talent is, is...
I saw a clip from his Freshman year somewhere and he looks very good in it. I wouldn't really worry about the difference between the Johnson offense and an I formation that much, I think he can do the same things in either, both good and bad. There is some worry that he relaxes and doesn't have the drive to keep himself in great shape and to get every yard he can. Not sure if that is just a guy being "smart" in college waiting for a pay day or a personality trait. Guess we'll see soon enough.
 
Matt Waldman said:
Iron_Far said:
Pretty damning observations of Dwyer here....
Not sure about that...the questions about his vision are merely questions, not conclusions. My friend Doug reminded me to go back to his freshman year and watch him in the I formation - he also reminded me of Dwyer's bum shoulder that he dealt with early in the year (although this doesn't explain some similar behaviors I saw later in the year). So I'm going to see if I can do that this weekend. To me, a Corey Dillon/Stephen Davis comparison is a very good thing. If give me those two as RB1 and RB2 in their primes and I'll be happy with my dynasty league for the next 2-3 seasons. I think it also depends how you view what a good fantasy RB is. If you're counting on a starting back to be the next top-three guy, you'll be disappointed this year. Dwyer's talent is not a question. How refined that talent is, is...
I saw a clip from his Freshman year somewhere and he looks very good in it. I wouldn't really worry about the difference between the Johnson offense and an I formation that much, I think he can do the same things in either, both good and bad. There is some worry that he relaxes and doesn't have the drive to keep himself in great shape and to get every yard he can. Not sure if that is just a guy being "smart" in college waiting for a pay day or a personality trait. Guess we'll see soon enough.
I worry about the weight issues. Suggests a lack of motivation to me. I remember Corey Dillon here at the UW. He was a beast. A man on a mission. I don't sense that from Dwyer.Also, I don't see how you compare him to Dillon. Dillon posted one of the greatest first quarters in college history when he rushed for 222 yards and also caught an 83-yard touchdown pass on a screen play. The 222 yards rushing and 305 yards of total offense were both NCAA records for a quarter. Dillon went on to rush for a school-record 1,555 yards and 24 touchdowns that year.Goofy offense scheme or not, I don't see Dwyer having the talent to do that.Matt, I love you man, but the comparison to Dillon I think is stretching it.
 
If you're a Facebook friend of mine, you probably saw my post yesterday that stated I could beat Jonathan Dwyer one-on-one if he were assigned to pass block me. Dwyer has an inch and a half on me in height, 25-30 pounds of weight, and nearly two decades of youth, quickness, and strength. So I was exaggerating, but one thing Dwyer has shown consistently in the four games I have studied is poor technique as a pass blocker.

Draft analysts opinions on Dwyer range from him getting picked between late round one and early round three and the NFL tends to treat a runner drafted in the first three rounds differently from those who get drafted in the second half of the event. A late-round runner better be able to catch on as a pass blocker early in his career, because his first shot to see the field will likely come on third down. Teams are more patient with early-round picks with pass protection deficiencies because they envision these players as future starters who don’t have as much to prove.

When it’s all said and done, Dwyer will still need to prove he can protect the passer to maximize his potential. My old classmate Doug Roberson with the Atlanta Journal Constitution, who covered Georgia Tech’s Pro Day, says Dwyer is working on his pass protection, which is a good sign that Dwyer has some self-awareness about a weakness in his game. Since most of the evaluation process for NFL scouts is finished, and most of that process is about studying film, Dwyer’s performance as a pass protector in live action shows two major flaws: telegraphing his blocks and not delivering a punch.

I watched Dwyer in four games and the flaw that gets him in the most trouble is his tendency to drop his head. Just before he moves forward to establish contact with a defender, he drops his head and leads with it. Not only does this prevent him from seeing where the defender moves, but it also eliminates any shred of balance and leverage. Defenders can sidestep the contact, grab Dwyer by the pads and throw him aside, or leap over him, and they have done all three frequently. If you hear someone tell you that we haven’t had enough of an opportunity to see Dwyer pass protect because he is in a run heavy offense, tell that person he needs to watch more Georgia Tech games. In the four games I watched, he had at least 20 opportunities to protect the passer and demonstrate this flaw a vast majority of the time on cut blocks and standing up – even as a run blocker.

The next issue is Dwyer’s difficulty with delivering a solid hit as a blocker. Much of this problem is also connected to his telegraphing the block and losing leverage due to his head position. When Dwyer stands up a defender, he frequently mirrors the defender’s movements to stay in front but he doesn’t delivery a punch with his hands. When he does, it is lacking the power to stop the momentum of the defender. This shouldn’t be an issue for a 6-1, 235-lb. runner.

Dwyer should be able to fix these issues quickly, but it is a question mark about his game that teams will need to show due diligence before making him their future bell cow back.

As far as running style is concerned, there are additional questions. Let’s look at some YouTube highlights.

Great breakdown Matt,

I enjoyed reading it and it brought more to the forefront than I thought.

 
Matt Waldman said:
Iron_Far said:
Pretty damning observations of Dwyer here....
Not sure about that...the questions about his vision are merely questions, not conclusions. My friend Doug reminded me to go back to his freshman year and watch him in the I formation - he also reminded me of Dwyer's bum shoulder that he dealt with early in the year (although this doesn't explain some similar behaviors I saw later in the year). So I'm going to see if I can do that this weekend. To me, a Corey Dillon/Stephen Davis comparison is a very good thing. If give me those two as RB1 and RB2 in their primes and I'll be happy with my dynasty league for the next 2-3 seasons. I think it also depends how you view what a good fantasy RB is. If you're counting on a starting back to be the next top-three guy, you'll be disappointed this year. Dwyer's talent is not a question. How refined that talent is, is...
I saw a clip from his Freshman year somewhere and he looks very good in it. I wouldn't really worry about the difference between the Johnson offense and an I formation that much, I think he can do the same things in either, both good and bad. There is some worry that he relaxes and doesn't have the drive to keep himself in great shape and to get every yard he can. Not sure if that is just a guy being "smart" in college waiting for a pay day or a personality trait. Guess we'll see soon enough.
I worry about the weight issues. Suggests a lack of motivation to me. I remember Corey Dillon here at the UW. He was a beast. A man on a mission. I don't sense that from Dwyer.Also, I don't see how you compare him to Dillon. Dillon posted one of the greatest first quarters in college history when he rushed for 222 yards and also caught an 83-yard touchdown pass on a screen play. The 222 yards rushing and 305 yards of total offense were both NCAA records for a quarter. Dillon went on to rush for a school-record 1,555 yards and 24 touchdowns that year.Goofy offense scheme or not, I don't see Dwyer having the talent to do that.Matt, I love you man, but the comparison to Dillon I think is stretching it.
LOL - Comparing him to Dillon's intangibles (especially with a UW man reading it)...I agree. Dillon used every ounce of his ability. Comparing him in terms of physical potential, I still stand by it. Personally, I think he's closer to Davis, but he has more agility than Davis and this is where the Dillon comparison comes into the play. If Dwyer could take the "chip" out of his back pocket and figure out how to balance it on his shoulder, the Dillon comparison might become more evident :thumbup:
 
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