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retrospective mock draft using 2009 data (1 Viewer)

moleculo

Footballguy
LHUCKS Moreno thread raises an interesting question - if you could re-do the draft from last year, what would you do differently?

I'm proposing a mock draft using 2009 data. 12 FBG's, drafting last years players and using last years stats. We then simulate a 13 week season, fantasy playoffs, and the championship game. There would be no arguing about projections, no injury risk, no questions about RBBC, etc. It's purely a game of strategy - putting together the best possible team where you already know how everyone will do.

Do you look at end of season totals to rank players?

Do you try to maximize big games (you know who had huge games in each particular week...)?

How would you deal with bye weeks?

Do you try to draft for positional strength and hoard RB's, or go for overall strength?

draft QB early, or work for late rounds QBBC?

I think there's enough variation in strategies people might work that it could be an interesting exercise.

some other thoughts:

-instead of simulating entire season based on draft, simulate a week at a time - allowing:

...* enable weekly waiver wire, with waiver wire priority based on reverse draft order. No free agency.

...* allow trades?

- obviously, everyone uses optimal line-ups.

- should use a live slow draft w/ strategy.

- before we start, we need to narrow down league parameters - PPR? flex? bench size? do we bother with kickers and/or team D?

post in here if you are interested in participating - first 12 to confirm (myself included) are included - and let's figure this out.

 
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rules

==========================

starting line-up:

............QB: 1

............RB: 1

...........WR: 2

............TE: 1

RB/WR/TE: 2

no K or D

rounds: 12 (5 man bench, no need for injury handcuffs)

scoring:

1/20 point passing yards

1/10 point rushing and receiving yards

1 point per reception

6 points all TD

-2 points all turnovers (fumble lost, int)

NOTE: all scoring is located here. I just got done compiling this data for all fantasy relevant players using this scoring system in a week-by-week basis. As long as we are all using known data, it's only fair we leverage the same Fantasy scoring cheat sheet. Feel free to cut and paste from here and stick into draft dominator or VBD spread sheet or whatever.

Scheduling: to keep this from drawing out a month or so, I'm going to simulate a week's games every day. I'll try to have updates by 1:00PM Eastern, but if I don't get it by then it will be later in the evening.

waivers: waiver wire submission will be due by midnight to be processed for the next day's game. Waivers will be handled using rolling waiver order, starting with reverse draft order. please submit waivers to me via e-mail using fbgmoleculo(at)gmail(dot)com.

playoffs: division champs automatic bids. Wildcard #1: next remaining record. Wild card 2: highest point total of non-qualifying team.

tie-breaker:

1. total points

2. head to head

Line-up submission: not needed. Each week your best line-up will be automatically used.

participant list:

1. moleculo

2. gonzobill5

3. Football Critic

4. gheemony

5. fubar

6. guppy A

7. guppy B

8. guppy C

9. guppy D

10. guppy E

11. guppy F

12. guppy G

=================================

schedule

================================

Week #1 fubar at moleculo Truman at guppy D No Way Jose at gonzobill5 guppy C at guppy E guppy F at Football Critic guppy G at gheemony Week #2 guppy D at moleculo No Way Jose at fubar gonzobill5 at guppy E Truman at guppy F Football Critic at gheemony guppy C at guppy G Week #3 fubar at guppy D moleculo at gonzobill5 guppy E at No Way Jose guppy G at Football Critic gheemony at Truman guppy F at guppy C Week #4 No Way Jose at moleculo gonzobill5 at fubar guppy D at guppy E guppy C at Football Critic gheemony at guppy F Truman at guppy G Week #5 guppy D at fubar guppy E at gonzobill5 Football Critic at No Way Jose guppy F at Truman gheemony at guppy C moleculo at guppy G Week #6 guppy E at moleculo gonzobill5 at guppy D gheemony at No Way Jose fubar at Football Critic Truman at guppy C guppy F at guppy G Week #7 guppy F at guppy D guppy C at gonzobill5 moleculo at Football Critic No Way Jose at Truman guppy E at gheemony fubar at guppy G Week #8 guppy C at moleculo guppy E at fubar guppy D at No Way Jose Football Critic at Truman gonzobill5 at guppy F gheemony at guppy G Week #9 Football Critic at gonzobill5 guppy F at No Way Jose guppy G at guppy E moleculo at Truman guppy D at gheemony fubar at guppy C Week #10 guppy F at moleculo gheemony at fubar Football Critic at guppy D guppy G at gonzobill5 guppy E at Truman No Way Jose at guppy C Week #11 guppy G at No Way Jose Football Critic at guppy E gonzobill5 at Truman fubar at guppy F moleculo at gheemony guppy D at guppy C Week #12 moleculo at fubar gonzobill5 at No Way Jose Truman at Football Critic guppy E at guppy F guppy C at gheemony guppy D at guppy G Week #13 Truman at fubar moleculo at guppy D gheemony at gonzobill5 No Way Jose at guppy E Football Critic at guppy F guppy G at guppy C ===========================standings:

Code:
Division #1	wins	losses	PF	PAfubar	   6	7	1624.45	1479.8guppy D	 6	7	1543   	1653.8moleculo	4	9	1594.05	1621.7				Division #2	wins	losses	PF	PANo Way Jose	10	3	1586.35	1389.35guppy E		6	7	1593   	1688.1gonzobill5	 5	8	1501.25	1449.8				Division #3	wins	losses	PF	PAguppy F			7	6	1567.7	1758.4Truman			 5	8	1482.6	1437.25Football Critic	4	9	1482.95	1733.15				Division #4	wins	losses	PF	PAgheemoney	9	4	1680.65	1710.8guppy G	   9	4	1619.1	1490.95guppy C	   7	6	1620.75	1482.75
 
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rosters:

================================

Moleculo:

Tom Brady

Vince Young

reggie bush

pierre thomas

Knowshon Moreno

Reggie Wayne

Randy Moss

Terrell Owens

Braylon Edwards

Brent Celek

Benjamin Watson

Gonzobill5:

tony romo

jay cutler

Frank Gore

Ryan Grant

Jerome Harrison

Jason Snelling

Miles Austin

mike sims-walker

Jerricho Cotchery

Michael Crabtree

Todd Heap

Brandon Pettigrew

Football Critic:

Drew Brees

Jason Campbell

Ronnie Brown

Jamaal Charles

Justin Forcett

Ahmad Bradshaw

DeSean Jackson

Anquan Boldin

Devery Henderson

Earl Bennett

Visente Shiancoe

Mercedes Lewis

Gheemoney:

Kyle Orton

Alex Smith

Chris Johnson

Joseph Addai

Steve Slaton

Ryan Moats

Hines Ward

Steve Smith (CAR)

Greg Jennings

Dwayne Bowe

Owen Daniels

Fred Davis

Fubar:

Brett Favre

Carson Palmer

Ray Rice

LaDanian Tomlinson

Willis McGahee

Donnie Avery

Chad Ochocinco

Robert Meachem

Austin Collie

Steve Breaston

Antonio Gates

Tony Scheffler

No Way Jose:

Aaron Rodgers

Matt Hasselbeck

Tim Hightower

Ricky Williams

Correll Buckhalter

Vincent Jackson

Percey Harvin

Jeremy Maclin

Kevin Walter

Mohamed Massaquoi

Jason Witten

Jermichael Finley

Truman:

Ben Roethlesberger

Chad Henne

Jonathan Stewart

Rashard Mendenhall

Cedric Benson

Beanie Wells

Andre Johnson

Roddy White

Pierre Garcon

Roy E Williams

Kevin Boss

Dustin Keller

Guppy C:

Eli Manning

Donovan McNabb

Thomas Jones

Michael Turner

Julius Jones

Kevin Faulk

Steve Smith NYG

Marques Colston

Calvin Johnson

Devin Hester

Dallas Clark

Chris Cooley

Guppy D:

Matt Schaub

Joe Flacco

Maurice Jones Drew

Marion Barber

Brandon Jacobs

Michael Bush

Sidney Rice

Donald Driver

Benard Berrian

Lee Evans

Kellen Winslow

Zach Miller

Guppy E:

Peyton Manning

David Girrard

DeAngelo Williams

Darren Sproles

Laurence Maroney

Santonio Holmes

T.J. Houshmandzadeh

Wes Welker

Hakeem nicks

Kenny Britt

Heath Miller

Jeremy Shockey

Guppy F:

Philip Rivers

Matt Ryan

Fred Jackson

Kevin Smith

Cadillac Williams

Marshawn Lynch

Larry Fitzgerald

Brandon Marshall

Stantana Moss

Mike Wallace

Tony Gonzalez

John Carlson

Guppy G:

Kurt Warner

Matt Cassel

Adrian Peterson (min)

Steven Jackson

Matt Forte

LeSean McCoy

Derrick Mason

Mario Manningham

Nate Burleson

Chris Chambers

Vernon Davis

Greg Olsen

 
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draft order:

gheemony

guppy D

No Way Jose

guppy G

fubar

Football Critic

guppy B

guppy E

guppy C

gonzobill5

moleculo

guppy F

even rounds will be reverse order of above (serpentine)



draft summary:

1.01 gheemony Chris Johnson

1.02 guppy D Maurice Jones-Drew

1.03 No Way Jose Aaron Rodgers

1.04 guppy G Adrian Peterson

1.05 fubar Ray Rice

1.06 Football Critic Drew Brees

1.07 Truman Andre Johnson WR

1.08 guppy E Wes Welker

1.09 guppy C Dallas Clark

1.1 gonzobill5 Frank Gore

1.11 moleculo Reggie Wayne

1.12 guppy F Larry Fitzgerald

2.01 guppy F Brandon Marshall

2.02 moleculo Randy Moss

2.03 gonzobill5 Miles Austin

2.04 guppy C Steve Smith (NYG)

2.05 guppy E Peyton Manning

2.06 Truman Roddy White

2.07 Football Critic DeSean Jackson

2.08 fubar Antonio Gates

2.09 guppy G Vernon Davis

2.10 No Way Jose Vincent Jackson

2.11 guppy D Matt Schaub

2.12 gheemony Joseph Addai

3.01 gheemony Hines Ward

3.02 guppy D Sidney Rice

3.03 No Way Jose Ricky Williams

3.04 guppy G Steven Jackson

3.05 fubar Chad Ochocinco

3.06 Football Critic Jamal Charles

3.07 Truman Jonathan Stewart

3.08 guppy E Santonio Holmes

3.09 guppy C Marques Colston

3.10 gonzobill5 Ryan Grant

3.11 moleculo Brent Celek

3.12 guppy F Tony Gonzalez

4.01 guppy F Philip Rivers

4.02 moleculo Tom Brady

4.03 gonzobill5 Tony Romo

4.04 guppy C Thomas Jones

4.05 guppy E DeAngelo Williams

4.06 Truman Rashard Mendenhall

4.07 Football Critic Anquan Boldin

4.08 fubar Brett Favre

4.09 guppy G Derrick Mason

4.10 No Way Jose Jason Witten

4.11 guppy D Kellen Winslow

4.12 gheemony Greg Jennings

5.01 gheemony Steve Smith (CAR)

5.02 guppy D Donald Driver

5.03 No Way Jose Tim Hightower

5.04 guppy G Matt Forte

5.05 fubar Robert Meachem

5.06 Football Critic Ronnie Brown

5.07 Truman Cedric Benson

5.08 guppy E Heath Miller

5.09 guppy C Eli Manning

5.10 gonzobill5 Mike Sims-Walker

5.11 moleculo Pierre Thomas

5.12 guppy F Fred Jackson

6.01 guppy F Kevin Smith

6.02 moleculo Reggie Bush

6.03 gonzobill5 Jerome Harrison

6.04 guppy C Calvin Johnson

6.05 guppy E T.J. Houshmandzadeh

6.06 Truman Ben Roethlisberger

6.07 Football Critic Visanthe Shiancoe*

6.08 fubar LaDanian Tomlinson

6.09 guppy G Kurt Warner

6.10 No Way Jose Percy harvin

6.11 guppy D Marion Barber

6.12 gheemony Owen Daniels

7.01 gheemony Steve Slaton

7.02 guppy D Zach Miller (oak)

7.03 No Way Jose Jermichael Finley

7.04 guppy G Mario Manningham

7.05 fubar Austin Collie

7.06 Football Critic Mario Manningham* Devery Henderson(commish is an idiot, apparently)

7.07 Truman Beanie Wells

7.08 guppy E Darren Sproles

7.09 guppy C Michael Turner

7.10 gonzobill5 jay cutler

7.11 moleculo Knowshon Moreno (finally)

7.12 guppy F Santana Moss

8.01 guppy F Cadillac Williams

8.02 moleculo Terrell Owens

8.03 gonzobill5 Todd Heap

8.04 guppy C Donovan McNabb

8.05 guppy E Hakeem Nicks

8.06 Truman Kevin Boss *

8.07 Football Critic Justin Forsett *

8.08 fubar Carson Palmer

8.09 guppy G Nate Burleson

8.10 No Way Jose Jeremy Maclin

8.11 guppy D Joe Flacco

8.12 gheemony Fred Davis

9.01 gheemony Kyle Orton

9.02 guppy D Brandon Jacobs

9.03 No Way Jose Matt Hasselbeck

9.04 guppy G LeSean McCoy

9.05 fubar Steve Breaston

9.06 Football Critic Ahmad Bradshaw*

9.07 Truman Pierre Garcon *

9.08 guppy E Laurence Maroney

9.09 guppy C Julius Jones

9.10 gonzobill5 Jerricho Cotchery

9.11 moleculo Braylon Edwards

9.12 guppy F Mike Wallace

10.01 guppy F John Carlson

10.02 moleculo Chester Taylor

10.03 gonzobill5 Jason Snelling

10.04 guppy C Devin Hester

10.05 guppy E Jeremy Shockey

10.06 Truman Roy E. Williams *

10.07 Football Critic Jason Campbell *

10.08 fubar Willis McGahee

10.09 guppy G Chris Chambers

10.10 No Way Jose Correll Buckhalter

10.11 guppy D Bernard Berrian

10.12 gheemony Alex Smith

11.01 gheemony Dwayne Bowe

11.02 guppy D Lee Evans

11.03 No Way Jose Kevin Walter

11.04 guppy G Greg Olsen

11.05 fubar Donnie Avery

11.06 Football Critic Earl Bennett*

11.07 Truman Dustin Keller*

11.08 guppy E David Garrard

11.09 guppy C Kevin Faulk

11.10 gonzobill5 Michael Crabtree

11.11 moleculo Vince Young

11.12 guppy F Matt Ryan

12.01 guppy F Marshawn Lynch

12.02 moleculo Benjamin Watson

12.03 gonzobill5 Brandon Pettigrew

12.04 guppy C Chris Cooley

12.05 guppy E Kenny Britt

12.06 Truman Chad Henne*

12.07 Football Critic Marcedes Lewis*

12.08 fubar Tony Scheffler

12.09 guppy G Matt Cassel

12.10 No Way Jose Mohamed Massaquoi

12.11 guppy D Michael Bush

12.12 gheemony Ryan Moats

================================

 
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LOVE this idea. I thought about the same exact thing while reading that thread! I think it would be an incredible thought experiment. Count me in!

 
Do you think HTH would be appropriate? That would add an element of chance. Or would total points give a better indicator of who drafted best?

 
Do you think HTH would be appropriate? That would add an element of chance. Or would total points give a better indicator of who drafted best?
hmm...total points (after a going through full schedule, not just adding up points from players drafted) might be interesting...something to consider. Allthough I do like the HTH, because especially with waivers I like the idea of snagging a guy so an opponent can't have him...something I usually do during a season.
 
Not that I think anyone would, but hopefully nobody fires up Draft Dominator and plugs in the #'s as projections.

 
LHUCKS Moreno thread raises an interesting question - if you could re-do the draft from last year, what would you do differently?I'm proposing a mock draft using 2009 data. 12 FBG's, drafting last years players and using last years stats. We then simulate a 13 week season, fantasy playoffs, and the championship game. There would be no arguing about projections, no injury risk, no questions about RBBC, etc. It's purely a game of strategy - putting together the best possible team where you already know how everyone will do.Do you look at end of season totals to rank players?Do you try to maximize big games (you know who had huge games in each particular week...)?How would you deal with bye weeks?Do you try to draft for positional strength and hoard RB's, or go for overall strength?draft QB early, or work for late rounds QBBC?I think there's enough variation in strategies people might work that it could be an interesting exercise.some other thoughts: -instead of simulating entire season based on draft, simulate a week at a time - allowing:...* enable weekly waiver wire, with waiver wire priority based on reverse draft order. No free agency....* allow trades?- obviously, everyone uses optimal line-ups.- should use a live slow draft w/ strategy.- before we start, we need to narrow down league parameters - PPR? flex? bench size? do we bother with kickers and/or team D?post in here if you are interested in participating - first 12 to confirm (myself included) are included - and let's figure this out.
I say we keep it simple and just draft a starting lineup, QB, 2 RB, 3WR, TE, K, DEF (injuries and bye weeks included, all part of what we know looking back, as that is the point, no need to adjust lineups if we know how it will play out)PLAY 13 weeks, head to head, 14 15 16, playoffs....ppr, 6 pt td for all 1 pt for 10 rush/rec yards, 1 pt for 20 pass yards, K all 3 points w/ 1pt xpt, who cares about length, its a kicker. standard defense.simple so we can have fun, and lets get people signed up....the vague platform is whats throwing people off. this could be fun.ETA: If your not interested in something like this, if u dont mind, I may start a thread like this as it may gain interest
 
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LHUCKS Moreno thread raises an interesting question - if you could re-do the draft from last year, what would you do differently?I'm proposing a mock draft using 2009 data. 12 FBG's, drafting last years players and using last years stats. We then simulate a 13 week season, fantasy playoffs, and the championship game. There would be no arguing about projections, no injury risk, no questions about RBBC, etc. It's purely a game of strategy - putting together the best possible team where you already know how everyone will do.Do you look at end of season totals to rank players?Do you try to maximize big games (you know who had huge games in each particular week...)?How would you deal with bye weeks?Do you try to draft for positional strength and hoard RB's, or go for overall strength?draft QB early, or work for late rounds QBBC?I think there's enough variation in strategies people might work that it could be an interesting exercise.some other thoughts: -instead of simulating entire season based on draft, simulate a week at a time - allowing:...* enable weekly waiver wire, with waiver wire priority based on reverse draft order. No free agency....* allow trades?- obviously, everyone uses optimal line-ups.- should use a live slow draft w/ strategy.- before we start, we need to narrow down league parameters - PPR? flex? bench size? do we bother with kickers and/or team D?post in here if you are interested in participating - first 12 to confirm (myself included) are included - and let's figure this out.
I say we keep it simple and just draft a starting lineup, QB, 2 RB, 3WR, TE, K, DEF (injuries and bye weeks included, all part of what we know looking back, as that is the point, no need to adjust lineups if we know how it will play out)PLAY 13 weeks, head to head, 14 15 16, playoffs....ppr, 6 pt td for all 1 pt for 10 rush/rec yards, 1 pt for 20 pass yards, K all 3 points w/ 1pt xpt, who cares about length, its a kicker. standard defense.simple so we can have fun, and lets get people signed up....the vague platform is whats throwing people off. this could be fun.ETA: If your not interested in something like this, if u dont mind, I may start a thread like this as it may gain interest
one of the most interesting aspects would be seeing how valuable the guys who were injured part of the year or who had quiet seasons with a couple huge weeks are.
 
So why do you think no one is interested? I think its neat to see how much we know looking back, but we'll see if anyone else is in.
people are interested but don't want to commit time, especially in the off-season. give it a couple more days. if need be, if we only have a new drafters we can each take a couple of teams, and that shouldn't impact too much. One could even simulate this himself, but that might be a bit too much work and I'd rather see some variety in style/preferences.
 
moleculo said:
Football Critic said:
So why do you think no one is interested? I think its neat to see how much we know looking back, but we'll see if anyone else is in.
people are interested but don't want to commit time, especially in the off-season. give it a couple more days. if need be, if we only have a new drafters we can each take a couple of teams, and that shouldn't impact too much. One could even simulate this himself, but that might be a bit too much work and I'd rather see some variety in style/preferences.
We can keep bumping for a few days to try to gain interest. In the meantime, let's try to agree upon some rules.Should waivers be included? This complicates the league, but incorporates strategy. Ditto matchups, bench players, etc. Do we want this to be about the draft and only the draft? If so, I think critic's suggestion is a good one. Do we want this to help settle the Knowshon debate? If so, we should have a bench - since no one likely started him (or planned on starting him) every week. I'm ok with whatever we decide though.
 
I'm interested. I'd commit if you were willing to be patient if I am a little slow in responding (day job). Would also want to shore up the rules.

 
I'm interested. I'd commit if you were willing to be patient if I am a little slow in responding (day job). Would also want to shore up the rules.
no problem. I think this has to be a slow draft - I do the day job thing too, and don't FBG during working hours.
 
bump for more participants. If we can't fill out a full league, let's take multiple teams each. After the draft, there really doesn't have to be much work to do, but I would really like as many independent drafters as we can get.

 
I think you should have one team that auto-drafts based entirely on season-ending VBD (along with positional need). For instance, with his pick, that team takes the guy on the board with the highest-remaining VBD. If that guy plays at a position the auto-drafter doesn't need (for instance, if the auto-drafter takes Rodgers in the first and then in the second VBD is telling him to take Brees), then the auto-drafter goes with the second highest remaining VBD, and so on. Not only would it decrease the number of teams needed by one, but I also think it'd be interesting to see how well mindless VBD does against humans who should, theoretically, be superior (due to their additional information).

 
I think you should have one team that auto-drafts based entirely on season-ending VBD (along with positional need). For instance, with his pick, that team takes the guy on the board with the highest-remaining VBD. If that guy plays at a position the auto-drafter doesn't need (for instance, if the auto-drafter takes Rodgers in the first and then in the second VBD is telling him to take Brees), then the auto-drafter goes with the second highest remaining VBD, and so on. Not only would it decrease the number of teams needed by one, but I also think it'd be interesting to see how well mindless VBD does against humans who should, theoretically, be superior (due to their additional information).
Yeah, that's how I'm gonna fill the rest of this out. One team will be pure VBD, one team will be pure highest points on the board, one team will draft starters at all positions before picking any back-ups (Yahoo autodraft simulation), not sure how to split the other dummy teams up. Of course, it will be blind - I won't tell anyone what dummy team is doing what until the end so (hopefully) we don't game the system.I'm gonna cut the open enrollment period tomorrow night and kick this off Monday - Provided those that said they are in are still in.
 
bump.

let's get this started. Rules, schedule, draft order, etc are posted above.

If anyone wants to jump in, I'd be more than happy to assign control to one of the guppy teams at any time.

gheemoney - you are on deck. Feel free to draft away!

 
as noted above, I just got done compiling weekly fantasy scoring for all relevant players for all weeks under consideration. Data is located here. This is the actual data that will be used for scoring.

 
(Team Gheemony is fumbling around, trying to figure out the rules, but then realizes that, no matter the rules, this is probably a no brainer pick ...)

With the First Pick in the Retrospective Draft, Team Gheemony picks ......

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN

 
Now it gets interesting! Is there a suggested time limit between picks? I'm in no hurry. In fact, I'm glad I'm at the bottom, because I still have no clue what the best approach would be.

 
would you guys be opposed to doing an 'everyone plays everyone each week' type of heads up? I think that would help us see more accurately what types of teams perform best in a headtohead league.

 

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