EBF
Footballguy
A couple quick notes:
- I tried to take more of a FF view with this list, leaning towards providing an outlook of the player's future FF value rather than providing an in depth scouting report with a thorough review of his strengths and weaknesses.
- This list is for PPR dynasty leagues with standard scoring. If your league places added emphasis on the TE and/or QB position, you'll have to factor that into the rankings yourself.
Tier One
1. WR Dez Bryant, Oklahoma State - Bryant is the only real “can’t-miss” talent in this class. He’s a big, strong target with great mobility and body control. I think he can become a dominant possession WR in the mold of Anquan Boldin or Brandon Marshall. The only question mark is character. He has all of the talent needed to be successful, but he will need to stay motivated and work hard if he wants to avoid the fate of Charles Rogers and Reggie Williams. From a pure long term talent perspective, he’s my easy choice for the 1.01 spot this year.
2. RB CJ Spiller, Clemson - Spiller has the highest ceiling of any player in this class thanks to his explosive big play ability. He’s a legitimate threat to take it to the house every time he touches the ball. His first step is lethal and his top speed is among the best I’ve seen in recent years. When he gets a seam, he simply pulls away from defenders. The downside is that he’s an undersized finesse back with questionable durability who gets inconsistent results on inside runs and struggles to excel in tight spaces. Is he Darren McFadden or Chris Johnson? I think he’s 75% Johnson and 25% McFadden. In a sense, it doesn’t really matter though. He’s going to be the first RB drafted and a top 20 pick. His name recognition and flashy skills will ensure that he carries top 20-30 overall dynasty value for the next 12 months as long as he shows any glimmers of potential on the field. Use this time period to evaluate him and trade him if you don’t like what you see.
3. RB Ryan Mathews, Fresno State - Mathews has a higher floor than Spiller and is a better pick if all you’re looking for is someone to step in and help you right away in 2010. He has a solid combination of size, speed, and skill. If he lands a starting job right out of the gate, expect him to produce like a low end RB1 or high end RB2 in standard size FF leagues. He’s probably the safest RB in this draft class, but I’ll be a little bit surprised if he ever becomes a top 5 NFL back. He’s a straight-line runner with marginal elusiveness in the open field and long term durability issues that stem from his upright power running style (he had trouble staying healthy in college). He’s also not much of a threat in the passing game. I see him as a suped-up version of Packers RB Ryan Grant. He should become a solid starter for FF teams despite his flaws.
4. WR Demaryius Thomas, Georgia Tech - Even though he broke his foot and has been unable to work out for scouts, the hype is starting to build around Thomas as more people get a look at his film. In this case the hype is warranted. Thomas is a massive target who has enough strength to overpower defenders, enough burst to sneak downfield, and enough coordination to win jump balls when well-covered. His overall skill set reminds me of Brandon Marshall and I think he can become a high end WR1 in the NFL if he can polish the edges of his game. Georgia Tech’s gimmicky offense limited the number of different routes he ran in college and he’s a raw player in general, so he will need some work before he’s ready to become a productive starter in the NFL. I don’t think he will contribute much in 2010, but he could explode as soon as 2011. I rate him as a high first round talent and a better prospect than Nicks/Harvin/Maclin last year.
5. RB Jonathan Dwyer, Georgia Tech - Dwyer was in the running for a first round draft slot before his postseason meltdown. He looked overweight and doughy at the combine while logging pitiful marks in several drills. He bounced back with a better set of 40 times at his pro day (4.51-4.54), but question marks about his work ethic and athletic ability still linger. He’s never going to win any bodybuilding competitions, but his results on the field offer some cause for optimism. Dwyer is a heavy back with good power and long speed. He was a very productive player in college and he can pull away from defenses once he gets a full head of steam. He’s not very elusive behind the line of scrimmage, but he has adequate change of direction skills. In some respects his overall game is similar to that of Beanie Wells even though his body type is very different. I’m worried about his poor conditioning and workouts, but his actual performance on the field suggests a talented every down back who has the potential to become a productive starter in the NFL. He’s worth a shot once the elite prospects are off the board and could become the rookie of the year in FF leagues if he lands in a plum situation like San Diego or Houston.
6. RB Jahvid Best, Cal - Best is a dynamic talent with great quickness and overall athletic ability. His open field moves leave defenders grasping at air and his overall game at this stage of his career reminds me of Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles when he was entering the league. Like Charles, Best is a lightning quick open field runner with marginal size. He will be effective when he carries the ball, but his slight build raises questions about his ability to handle a full workload. His durability woes in college only amplify these concerns. There’s a significant risk that he will end up as nothing more than a niche player in the NFL. Still, his talent is unquestionable and he has enough upside to warrant a pick in the 4-6 range of rookie drafts.
Tier Two
7. QB Sam Bradford, Oklahoma - Bradford has been a household name among college football fans for the past few years thanks to his sterling play for the Sooners. He likely would’ve been a top 5 pick last season if he had declared for the draft and that’s probably where he’ll end up this year despite his shoulder injuries. Bradford is a tall passer with deadly accuracy on short-intermediate throws and a good mental makeup for the position. I think he’s a good “best player available” pick once the elite talents at RB and WR have been cleaned up.
8. RB Montario Hardesty, Tennessee - Hardesty reminds me of Joseph Addai. He’s not great at anything, but he’s pretty good at everything and he can be reasonably productive at the next level if he lands in a favorable situation. He broke out with a big senior season and helped himself with a great showing at the scouting combine in Indianapolis. He has a good combination of size, power, elusiveness, and straight line speed, but he lacks elite upside and isn’t a truly explosive back. He should be a good pick in the 7-10 range of rookie drafts.
9. RB Ben Tate, Auburn - Like Hardesty, Tate helped himself with a strong senior season and a great showing at the combine. He’s a compact back with good lower body strength and an elite combination of weight and workout numbers. He has a little bit of Frank Gore in him and he may be a sleeper in this RB class, but there are some reasons to doubt his value. He was a fairly mediocre player for his first three seasons at Auburn and his 2009 game logs reveal that he struggled against the good teams on his schedule (poor outings against West Virginia, LSU, Georgia, and Alabama). It’s hard to get a great read on Tate’s NFL potential, but there’s enough upside here to warrant consideration in the 7-10 range, particularly in he lands in a favorable situation. He could be one of the real surprises from this group or he could be the next Kenny Irons. The risk/reward equation is worth a mid first rounder in rookie drafts.
10. WR Arrelious Benn, Illinois - Benn is an enigmatic receiver prospect whose pure physical ability rivals that of Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas. Unfortunately, the sum of Benn’s onfield performance is less than the total of its parts, meaning he doesn’t capitalize on his physical talent to the extent that you’d expect. His production took a nosedive in 2009 and there’s an overall lack of precision and intensity to his game that makes me think he’s a considerable bust risk. Some of his poor performance can be chalked up to situation and injuries, and he seems to have more upside than everyone but Bryant and Thomas, so I don’t mind rolling the dice on him at WR3.
11. RB Toby Gerhart, Stanford - Gerhart is a good power runner who should be effective in a committee at the next level. He has a sturdy build with a thick lower body that allows him to punish defenders and gain considerable yards after contact. He’s not a threat in the receiving game and he’s not an explosive runner, but he has decent feet behind the line of scrimmage and fluid hips. I see him as a lesser version of a Shonn Greene/Marion Barber/Michael Turner/Brandon Jacobs type of back. He could be a decent RB2 in FF leagues if he lands on a team that will give him the opportunity to carry the ball 12-15 times per game. Long term durability will be a concern because he's a very physical runner.
12. TE Jermaine Gresham, Oklahoma - Gresham was touted as a potential top 10 pick entering the season before a knee injury sidelined him for the entire campaign. I have some doubts about his quickness and burst, but he’s a productive pass catcher with a big frame and a knack for picking up lots of yards after the catch. In terms of style he's a bit like Antonio Gates: modest speed, but a big body that can catch the football, turn upfield, and rumble for some extra yards. He looks like the best prospect at his position in this draft although I don’t think he’s on the Gonzo/Winslow/Shockey level as an athlete or prospect.
13. WR Golden Tate, Notre Dame - I have been a Tate critic in the past, but he answered some of the questions I had about him by running a set of blistering 40 times at the combine. Tate was wildly productive at Notre Dame and while he has drawn criticism for his tendency to catch passes with his body rather than his hands, it’s hard to argue with the results. I think he’s a tough, aggressive player who has many of the intangibles that you look for at the position. He’s probably never going to be a number one receiver in the NFL and I don’t think the comparisons to guys like Steve Smith are warranted, but Tate seemingly has enough ability to become a productive player in the mold of Laveranues Coles.
14. QB Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame - Clausen improved every year during his career at Notre Dame, which culminated in a monster junior season that has him poised to become a first round draft pick. Scouts like his arm strength, mechanics, accuracy, and poise. His deep ball has been known to flutter, he has marginal size at just 6'2", and his maturity and leadership have been questioned. If you need a QB, Clausen is clearly one of the top two prospects in this draft, but I think he carries more risk than Bradford. He benefitted from a friendly scheme that made Brady Quinn look like a superstar, he had an elite supporting cast highlighted by two NFL caliber WRs and a future NFL TE, he only had one good season, and I question his mental makeup.
Tier Three
15. WR Mardy Gilyard, Cincinnati - Gilyard is a productive receiver with excellent initial quickness and a slight frame. I view him as a lesser version of Santonio Holmes. He will not beat most NFL corners in footraces downfield, he doesn’t have the size of a typical possession WR, and he has a tendency to body catch passes. It’s hard for me to envision him as anything more than a WR2 at the NFL level, although I think he could be productive opposite another quality starting WR in a potent offense. He’s a good player who has a knack for making clutch plays.
16. WR Andre Roberts, The Citadel - Roberts is a squatty receiver whose fluid, bow-legged running style reminds me very much of Santonio Holmes and Eddie Royal (in fact, he’s practically a clone of Royal). Roberts demonstrates sticky hands to effortlessly pluck the ball out of the air and he’s an elite route runner thanks to his seamless change of direction skills. He’s going to be a solid player in the NFL. The only question is whether or not he has the upside to become relevant in FF leagues. Roberts is built well for his height, but he’s only 5'10" and his vertical speed isn’t quite on par with that of Holmes (although he ran one of the fastest WR 40 times at the combine with a 4.46). He may never be more than a WR2-WR3 in the NFL, but he should at least become a Davone Bess type and he’s an overlooked talent who could surprise.
17. WR Carlton Mitchell, South Florida - Mitchell is a height/speed guy whose production never matched his measurables in college. Physically, he reminds me of Limas Sweed with a tall, angular build. He made himself some money at the combine by clocking in the 4.4 range and testing pretty well in the drills. On the field he’s a raw receiver who shows some nice flashes, but never looks like the dominant player you would expect given his athletic gifts. His best season was his junior year, when he caught just 40 catches for 706 yards and 4 scores (albeit in only 11 games). Mitchell has more upside than any other WR in this tier and is worth a shot if you want to swing for the fences, but he wasn’t a spectacular player in college and he’ll have to keep developing if he’s going to be successful at the next level.
18. RB Joe McKnight, USC - McKnight is a productive scat back type who has been lost in the shuffle while Jahvid Best and CJ Spiller have received most of the attention from draft pundits. McKnight has decent speed, good ability in the receiving game, and a deadly first step that allows him to make tacklers miss. He should provide a nice spark off the bench for his NFL team, but it’s hard to say whether or not he’ll ever get enough carries to become a starter in FF leagues. He has a thin frame with little room for growth. He will most likely be a change of pace back in the mold of Leon Washington, but there’s an outside chance of him becoming more than that.
19. WR Damian Williams, USC - Williams is a bit of a tweener without the pure speed of a deep threat or the power of a possession receiver. He’s reasonably mobile, but he has sort of a goofy lower body that makes him look awkward changing directions. I view him as another WR2 prospect who lacks the special qualities to become a star. I think he’s a poor man’s Jeremy Maclin.
20. WR Taylor Price, Ohio - Like Mitchell, Price is a measurables guy without the stats to back it up. In four years at Ohio his best season was just 56 catches for 784 yards and 5 TDs. You would think that an NFL caliber WR could've done better than that in the MAC. Still, his 6' 204 pound frame and low 4.4 speed will see him drafted in the top 100 selections in April. He’s another player who does everything pretty well, but doesn’t jump out at you in any one category. I see him as sort of a cross between Johnny Knox and Justin McCareins. He can become a starter in the NFL, but will most likely be relegated to a secondary role in the offense.
21. RB LeGarrette Blount, Oregon - Blount is an overrated prospect who has received more draft hype than his college career warrants. He’s a straight line runner with limited change of direction skills and highly questionable character/intelligence. On the other hand, I wouldn't mind gambling on him in the 20-25 range of rookie drafts where most of the players are going to bust anyway. His high profile college career has given him a lot of name recognition, which means owners are going to overvalue him if he shows any signs of life in the NFL. I’m not enamored with his potential, but he was very productive in 2008, he has good size, decent straight line speed, and a willingness to mix it up inside. He could become a poor man’s Brandon Jacobs for someone.
22. TE Rob Gronkowski, Arizona - Gronkowski is a tough evaluation because he didn’t play a down in 2009 and I’ve had a hard time tracking down footage of his 2008 season. What I do know is that he’s a productive TE with a big frame who was thought to be a potential first rounder in 2011 before making himself eligible for the draft this year. His deep speed is questionable and like a lot of taller TEs he might struggle with separation, but there’s enough talent here to warrant a top 25 pick if you need a developmental TE.
23. TE Jimmy Graham, Miami - Graham is this year’s Jared Cook, a workout warrior whose off the charts combine numbers will have people excited about his upside. He has an elite combination of size and workout numbers at 6'6" with 4.5 speed and a 38" vertical leap. Unfortunately, he is also very raw. He started his college career as a member of the Hurricanes basketball team and only recently started focusing on football. As a result, he’s well behind in many of the technique aspects of the game and it will most likely take him 2-3 years of seasoning before he’s ready to contribute in the NFL. You have to be intrigued by his potential, but he doesn’t play a prestige position and he will be eating roster space for years, so don’t pick him unless you can afford to be very patient.
24. TE Aaron Hernandez, Florida - Hernandez is a productive receiving TE whose marginal size and blocking skills raise questions about his NFL upside. He’s very small for the position at just 6'2.3" 245 pounds. Will he be a full-time starter or will his lack of versatility relegate him to a situational role? I think that’s the main question. Hernandez has the potential to become a Chris Cooley/Dallas Clark type, but it’s all about usage.
OTHERS (roughly in order of how I might rank them):
Colt McCoy - Like the accuracy, production, and toughness. Marginal size and physical tools.
Tim Tebow - Great work ethic. Good athlete. Suspect pure passing skills and instincts. Needs to sit for two years.
Dan LeFevour - Nice career. Good athlete. Looked okay from what I saw at the Senior Bowl. Nothing special jumps out.
Jarrett Brown - Great athlete who needs a ton of refinement. Purely a project at this point.
Tony Pike - Tall with good production. Disappears in clutch moments. Lacks swagger and confidence.
Stafon Johnson - Good sleeper with some latent upside. Nice feet and hip swivel. Limited burst and speed.
Anthony Dixon - Serviceable back who could put up some numbers if he finds a starting job. Not special. Slow. Not explosive.
Lonyae Miller - Decent workout numbers. Really didn't show me much at the Senior Bowl. Most likely a backup in the NFL.
Joique Bell - A step slow for the pro game. Good frame and decent feet. Late round pick. NFL backup.
Charles Scott - Slasher with decent weight/speed combo. Poor change of direction. Modest athlete. A poor man's Dwyer.
Brandon LaFell - Might belong in tier three. Still, a chronically overrated prospect with marginal speed and hands.
Dexter McCluster - Talented niche/gadget player. Could have value in deep leagues. Don't see the upside elsewhere.
Freddie Barnes - Playmaker with great hands. Could be a steal, but lack of speed (high 4.6-low 4.7) is a real concern.
Emmanuel Sanders - Sticky hands, good speed, good quicks, and solid production. Mike Wallace type. Very slight frame.
Mike Williams - Poor man's Antonio Bryant with decent size/skill along with a ten cent head. Has some upside.
Dezmon Briscoe - Nice height, production, strength, and instincts. Awkward runner with mediocre speed.
Shay Hodge - Decent size/speed/production. Middle round pick worth a look in the 30-40 range of rookie drafts.
Marcus Easley - Coming out of nowhere to get some hype. Haven't seen him play. Consider him a sleeper.
Jeremy Williams - Solid in every facet of the game. Not special in any way. A backup or WR2 at the most.
Jacoby Ford - Track guy who disappears on the football field.
Joe Webb - QB convert with impressive workout numbers. Has a long way to go. Looked pitiful at the Senior Bowl.
Jordan Shipley - Super productive, but also very old and a middling athlete. Purely a depth guy in the NFL.
Danario Alexander - Tall with decent hands and very good production. Has trouble changing directions and suspect health.
Riley Cooper - Nothing special.
Garrett Graham - H-back type with sneaky upside like Owen Daniels and Chris Cooley. Worth a shot late.
Tony Moeaki - Another guy who could come out of the middle rounds and become a decent pro.
Dorin Dickerson - Workout warrior. Midget by TE standards and looked bad at WR in Senior Bowl practices. No real position.
Ed Dickson - Nice career. Decent Senior Bowl and combine. He just doesn't look special to me.
Anthony McCoy - Big guy with some strength and skill. Better NFL prospect than FF (too slow to be a consistent receiving threat).
- I tried to take more of a FF view with this list, leaning towards providing an outlook of the player's future FF value rather than providing an in depth scouting report with a thorough review of his strengths and weaknesses.
- This list is for PPR dynasty leagues with standard scoring. If your league places added emphasis on the TE and/or QB position, you'll have to factor that into the rankings yourself.
Tier One
1. WR Dez Bryant, Oklahoma State - Bryant is the only real “can’t-miss” talent in this class. He’s a big, strong target with great mobility and body control. I think he can become a dominant possession WR in the mold of Anquan Boldin or Brandon Marshall. The only question mark is character. He has all of the talent needed to be successful, but he will need to stay motivated and work hard if he wants to avoid the fate of Charles Rogers and Reggie Williams. From a pure long term talent perspective, he’s my easy choice for the 1.01 spot this year.
2. RB CJ Spiller, Clemson - Spiller has the highest ceiling of any player in this class thanks to his explosive big play ability. He’s a legitimate threat to take it to the house every time he touches the ball. His first step is lethal and his top speed is among the best I’ve seen in recent years. When he gets a seam, he simply pulls away from defenders. The downside is that he’s an undersized finesse back with questionable durability who gets inconsistent results on inside runs and struggles to excel in tight spaces. Is he Darren McFadden or Chris Johnson? I think he’s 75% Johnson and 25% McFadden. In a sense, it doesn’t really matter though. He’s going to be the first RB drafted and a top 20 pick. His name recognition and flashy skills will ensure that he carries top 20-30 overall dynasty value for the next 12 months as long as he shows any glimmers of potential on the field. Use this time period to evaluate him and trade him if you don’t like what you see.
3. RB Ryan Mathews, Fresno State - Mathews has a higher floor than Spiller and is a better pick if all you’re looking for is someone to step in and help you right away in 2010. He has a solid combination of size, speed, and skill. If he lands a starting job right out of the gate, expect him to produce like a low end RB1 or high end RB2 in standard size FF leagues. He’s probably the safest RB in this draft class, but I’ll be a little bit surprised if he ever becomes a top 5 NFL back. He’s a straight-line runner with marginal elusiveness in the open field and long term durability issues that stem from his upright power running style (he had trouble staying healthy in college). He’s also not much of a threat in the passing game. I see him as a suped-up version of Packers RB Ryan Grant. He should become a solid starter for FF teams despite his flaws.
4. WR Demaryius Thomas, Georgia Tech - Even though he broke his foot and has been unable to work out for scouts, the hype is starting to build around Thomas as more people get a look at his film. In this case the hype is warranted. Thomas is a massive target who has enough strength to overpower defenders, enough burst to sneak downfield, and enough coordination to win jump balls when well-covered. His overall skill set reminds me of Brandon Marshall and I think he can become a high end WR1 in the NFL if he can polish the edges of his game. Georgia Tech’s gimmicky offense limited the number of different routes he ran in college and he’s a raw player in general, so he will need some work before he’s ready to become a productive starter in the NFL. I don’t think he will contribute much in 2010, but he could explode as soon as 2011. I rate him as a high first round talent and a better prospect than Nicks/Harvin/Maclin last year.
5. RB Jonathan Dwyer, Georgia Tech - Dwyer was in the running for a first round draft slot before his postseason meltdown. He looked overweight and doughy at the combine while logging pitiful marks in several drills. He bounced back with a better set of 40 times at his pro day (4.51-4.54), but question marks about his work ethic and athletic ability still linger. He’s never going to win any bodybuilding competitions, but his results on the field offer some cause for optimism. Dwyer is a heavy back with good power and long speed. He was a very productive player in college and he can pull away from defenses once he gets a full head of steam. He’s not very elusive behind the line of scrimmage, but he has adequate change of direction skills. In some respects his overall game is similar to that of Beanie Wells even though his body type is very different. I’m worried about his poor conditioning and workouts, but his actual performance on the field suggests a talented every down back who has the potential to become a productive starter in the NFL. He’s worth a shot once the elite prospects are off the board and could become the rookie of the year in FF leagues if he lands in a plum situation like San Diego or Houston.
6. RB Jahvid Best, Cal - Best is a dynamic talent with great quickness and overall athletic ability. His open field moves leave defenders grasping at air and his overall game at this stage of his career reminds me of Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles when he was entering the league. Like Charles, Best is a lightning quick open field runner with marginal size. He will be effective when he carries the ball, but his slight build raises questions about his ability to handle a full workload. His durability woes in college only amplify these concerns. There’s a significant risk that he will end up as nothing more than a niche player in the NFL. Still, his talent is unquestionable and he has enough upside to warrant a pick in the 4-6 range of rookie drafts.
Tier Two
7. QB Sam Bradford, Oklahoma - Bradford has been a household name among college football fans for the past few years thanks to his sterling play for the Sooners. He likely would’ve been a top 5 pick last season if he had declared for the draft and that’s probably where he’ll end up this year despite his shoulder injuries. Bradford is a tall passer with deadly accuracy on short-intermediate throws and a good mental makeup for the position. I think he’s a good “best player available” pick once the elite talents at RB and WR have been cleaned up.
8. RB Montario Hardesty, Tennessee - Hardesty reminds me of Joseph Addai. He’s not great at anything, but he’s pretty good at everything and he can be reasonably productive at the next level if he lands in a favorable situation. He broke out with a big senior season and helped himself with a great showing at the scouting combine in Indianapolis. He has a good combination of size, power, elusiveness, and straight line speed, but he lacks elite upside and isn’t a truly explosive back. He should be a good pick in the 7-10 range of rookie drafts.
9. RB Ben Tate, Auburn - Like Hardesty, Tate helped himself with a strong senior season and a great showing at the combine. He’s a compact back with good lower body strength and an elite combination of weight and workout numbers. He has a little bit of Frank Gore in him and he may be a sleeper in this RB class, but there are some reasons to doubt his value. He was a fairly mediocre player for his first three seasons at Auburn and his 2009 game logs reveal that he struggled against the good teams on his schedule (poor outings against West Virginia, LSU, Georgia, and Alabama). It’s hard to get a great read on Tate’s NFL potential, but there’s enough upside here to warrant consideration in the 7-10 range, particularly in he lands in a favorable situation. He could be one of the real surprises from this group or he could be the next Kenny Irons. The risk/reward equation is worth a mid first rounder in rookie drafts.
10. WR Arrelious Benn, Illinois - Benn is an enigmatic receiver prospect whose pure physical ability rivals that of Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas. Unfortunately, the sum of Benn’s onfield performance is less than the total of its parts, meaning he doesn’t capitalize on his physical talent to the extent that you’d expect. His production took a nosedive in 2009 and there’s an overall lack of precision and intensity to his game that makes me think he’s a considerable bust risk. Some of his poor performance can be chalked up to situation and injuries, and he seems to have more upside than everyone but Bryant and Thomas, so I don’t mind rolling the dice on him at WR3.
11. RB Toby Gerhart, Stanford - Gerhart is a good power runner who should be effective in a committee at the next level. He has a sturdy build with a thick lower body that allows him to punish defenders and gain considerable yards after contact. He’s not a threat in the receiving game and he’s not an explosive runner, but he has decent feet behind the line of scrimmage and fluid hips. I see him as a lesser version of a Shonn Greene/Marion Barber/Michael Turner/Brandon Jacobs type of back. He could be a decent RB2 in FF leagues if he lands on a team that will give him the opportunity to carry the ball 12-15 times per game. Long term durability will be a concern because he's a very physical runner.
12. TE Jermaine Gresham, Oklahoma - Gresham was touted as a potential top 10 pick entering the season before a knee injury sidelined him for the entire campaign. I have some doubts about his quickness and burst, but he’s a productive pass catcher with a big frame and a knack for picking up lots of yards after the catch. In terms of style he's a bit like Antonio Gates: modest speed, but a big body that can catch the football, turn upfield, and rumble for some extra yards. He looks like the best prospect at his position in this draft although I don’t think he’s on the Gonzo/Winslow/Shockey level as an athlete or prospect.
13. WR Golden Tate, Notre Dame - I have been a Tate critic in the past, but he answered some of the questions I had about him by running a set of blistering 40 times at the combine. Tate was wildly productive at Notre Dame and while he has drawn criticism for his tendency to catch passes with his body rather than his hands, it’s hard to argue with the results. I think he’s a tough, aggressive player who has many of the intangibles that you look for at the position. He’s probably never going to be a number one receiver in the NFL and I don’t think the comparisons to guys like Steve Smith are warranted, but Tate seemingly has enough ability to become a productive player in the mold of Laveranues Coles.
14. QB Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame - Clausen improved every year during his career at Notre Dame, which culminated in a monster junior season that has him poised to become a first round draft pick. Scouts like his arm strength, mechanics, accuracy, and poise. His deep ball has been known to flutter, he has marginal size at just 6'2", and his maturity and leadership have been questioned. If you need a QB, Clausen is clearly one of the top two prospects in this draft, but I think he carries more risk than Bradford. He benefitted from a friendly scheme that made Brady Quinn look like a superstar, he had an elite supporting cast highlighted by two NFL caliber WRs and a future NFL TE, he only had one good season, and I question his mental makeup.
Tier Three
15. WR Mardy Gilyard, Cincinnati - Gilyard is a productive receiver with excellent initial quickness and a slight frame. I view him as a lesser version of Santonio Holmes. He will not beat most NFL corners in footraces downfield, he doesn’t have the size of a typical possession WR, and he has a tendency to body catch passes. It’s hard for me to envision him as anything more than a WR2 at the NFL level, although I think he could be productive opposite another quality starting WR in a potent offense. He’s a good player who has a knack for making clutch plays.
16. WR Andre Roberts, The Citadel - Roberts is a squatty receiver whose fluid, bow-legged running style reminds me very much of Santonio Holmes and Eddie Royal (in fact, he’s practically a clone of Royal). Roberts demonstrates sticky hands to effortlessly pluck the ball out of the air and he’s an elite route runner thanks to his seamless change of direction skills. He’s going to be a solid player in the NFL. The only question is whether or not he has the upside to become relevant in FF leagues. Roberts is built well for his height, but he’s only 5'10" and his vertical speed isn’t quite on par with that of Holmes (although he ran one of the fastest WR 40 times at the combine with a 4.46). He may never be more than a WR2-WR3 in the NFL, but he should at least become a Davone Bess type and he’s an overlooked talent who could surprise.
17. WR Carlton Mitchell, South Florida - Mitchell is a height/speed guy whose production never matched his measurables in college. Physically, he reminds me of Limas Sweed with a tall, angular build. He made himself some money at the combine by clocking in the 4.4 range and testing pretty well in the drills. On the field he’s a raw receiver who shows some nice flashes, but never looks like the dominant player you would expect given his athletic gifts. His best season was his junior year, when he caught just 40 catches for 706 yards and 4 scores (albeit in only 11 games). Mitchell has more upside than any other WR in this tier and is worth a shot if you want to swing for the fences, but he wasn’t a spectacular player in college and he’ll have to keep developing if he’s going to be successful at the next level.
18. RB Joe McKnight, USC - McKnight is a productive scat back type who has been lost in the shuffle while Jahvid Best and CJ Spiller have received most of the attention from draft pundits. McKnight has decent speed, good ability in the receiving game, and a deadly first step that allows him to make tacklers miss. He should provide a nice spark off the bench for his NFL team, but it’s hard to say whether or not he’ll ever get enough carries to become a starter in FF leagues. He has a thin frame with little room for growth. He will most likely be a change of pace back in the mold of Leon Washington, but there’s an outside chance of him becoming more than that.
19. WR Damian Williams, USC - Williams is a bit of a tweener without the pure speed of a deep threat or the power of a possession receiver. He’s reasonably mobile, but he has sort of a goofy lower body that makes him look awkward changing directions. I view him as another WR2 prospect who lacks the special qualities to become a star. I think he’s a poor man’s Jeremy Maclin.
20. WR Taylor Price, Ohio - Like Mitchell, Price is a measurables guy without the stats to back it up. In four years at Ohio his best season was just 56 catches for 784 yards and 5 TDs. You would think that an NFL caliber WR could've done better than that in the MAC. Still, his 6' 204 pound frame and low 4.4 speed will see him drafted in the top 100 selections in April. He’s another player who does everything pretty well, but doesn’t jump out at you in any one category. I see him as sort of a cross between Johnny Knox and Justin McCareins. He can become a starter in the NFL, but will most likely be relegated to a secondary role in the offense.
21. RB LeGarrette Blount, Oregon - Blount is an overrated prospect who has received more draft hype than his college career warrants. He’s a straight line runner with limited change of direction skills and highly questionable character/intelligence. On the other hand, I wouldn't mind gambling on him in the 20-25 range of rookie drafts where most of the players are going to bust anyway. His high profile college career has given him a lot of name recognition, which means owners are going to overvalue him if he shows any signs of life in the NFL. I’m not enamored with his potential, but he was very productive in 2008, he has good size, decent straight line speed, and a willingness to mix it up inside. He could become a poor man’s Brandon Jacobs for someone.
22. TE Rob Gronkowski, Arizona - Gronkowski is a tough evaluation because he didn’t play a down in 2009 and I’ve had a hard time tracking down footage of his 2008 season. What I do know is that he’s a productive TE with a big frame who was thought to be a potential first rounder in 2011 before making himself eligible for the draft this year. His deep speed is questionable and like a lot of taller TEs he might struggle with separation, but there’s enough talent here to warrant a top 25 pick if you need a developmental TE.
23. TE Jimmy Graham, Miami - Graham is this year’s Jared Cook, a workout warrior whose off the charts combine numbers will have people excited about his upside. He has an elite combination of size and workout numbers at 6'6" with 4.5 speed and a 38" vertical leap. Unfortunately, he is also very raw. He started his college career as a member of the Hurricanes basketball team and only recently started focusing on football. As a result, he’s well behind in many of the technique aspects of the game and it will most likely take him 2-3 years of seasoning before he’s ready to contribute in the NFL. You have to be intrigued by his potential, but he doesn’t play a prestige position and he will be eating roster space for years, so don’t pick him unless you can afford to be very patient.
24. TE Aaron Hernandez, Florida - Hernandez is a productive receiving TE whose marginal size and blocking skills raise questions about his NFL upside. He’s very small for the position at just 6'2.3" 245 pounds. Will he be a full-time starter or will his lack of versatility relegate him to a situational role? I think that’s the main question. Hernandez has the potential to become a Chris Cooley/Dallas Clark type, but it’s all about usage.
OTHERS (roughly in order of how I might rank them):
Colt McCoy - Like the accuracy, production, and toughness. Marginal size and physical tools.
Tim Tebow - Great work ethic. Good athlete. Suspect pure passing skills and instincts. Needs to sit for two years.
Dan LeFevour - Nice career. Good athlete. Looked okay from what I saw at the Senior Bowl. Nothing special jumps out.
Jarrett Brown - Great athlete who needs a ton of refinement. Purely a project at this point.
Tony Pike - Tall with good production. Disappears in clutch moments. Lacks swagger and confidence.
Stafon Johnson - Good sleeper with some latent upside. Nice feet and hip swivel. Limited burst and speed.
Anthony Dixon - Serviceable back who could put up some numbers if he finds a starting job. Not special. Slow. Not explosive.
Lonyae Miller - Decent workout numbers. Really didn't show me much at the Senior Bowl. Most likely a backup in the NFL.
Joique Bell - A step slow for the pro game. Good frame and decent feet. Late round pick. NFL backup.
Charles Scott - Slasher with decent weight/speed combo. Poor change of direction. Modest athlete. A poor man's Dwyer.
Brandon LaFell - Might belong in tier three. Still, a chronically overrated prospect with marginal speed and hands.
Dexter McCluster - Talented niche/gadget player. Could have value in deep leagues. Don't see the upside elsewhere.
Freddie Barnes - Playmaker with great hands. Could be a steal, but lack of speed (high 4.6-low 4.7) is a real concern.
Emmanuel Sanders - Sticky hands, good speed, good quicks, and solid production. Mike Wallace type. Very slight frame.
Mike Williams - Poor man's Antonio Bryant with decent size/skill along with a ten cent head. Has some upside.
Dezmon Briscoe - Nice height, production, strength, and instincts. Awkward runner with mediocre speed.
Shay Hodge - Decent size/speed/production. Middle round pick worth a look in the 30-40 range of rookie drafts.
Marcus Easley - Coming out of nowhere to get some hype. Haven't seen him play. Consider him a sleeper.
Jeremy Williams - Solid in every facet of the game. Not special in any way. A backup or WR2 at the most.
Jacoby Ford - Track guy who disappears on the football field.
Joe Webb - QB convert with impressive workout numbers. Has a long way to go. Looked pitiful at the Senior Bowl.
Jordan Shipley - Super productive, but also very old and a middling athlete. Purely a depth guy in the NFL.
Danario Alexander - Tall with decent hands and very good production. Has trouble changing directions and suspect health.
Riley Cooper - Nothing special.
Garrett Graham - H-back type with sneaky upside like Owen Daniels and Chris Cooley. Worth a shot late.
Tony Moeaki - Another guy who could come out of the middle rounds and become a decent pro.
Dorin Dickerson - Workout warrior. Midget by TE standards and looked bad at WR in Senior Bowl practices. No real position.
Ed Dickson - Nice career. Decent Senior Bowl and combine. He just doesn't look special to me.
Anthony McCoy - Big guy with some strength and skill. Better NFL prospect than FF (too slow to be a consistent receiving threat).
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Gerhart is extremely unlikely to end up on any of my teams. Ben Tate and Hardesty likely won't either. Golden probably will.
although I'll bump up Bradford to elite prospects and tier 1 of EBF's list. The only reason he's #7 on my list is QBs aren't worth as much in most leagues, in large leagues (16 teams) or 2QB leagues, he flies up to top 4 IMO, maybe #1 in 2QB leagues.
