MAC_32
Footballguy
I’m trying something a bit different this year in my rookie analysis, below is a summary
#1 break up into tiers
#2 identify names of tiers (as it turns out I think the name was more important than anything else)
#3 identify round values (real draft, not fantasy draft) for each tier
#4 repeat 1-3 until no changes are made
Seems simple, in theory, but in practice it was far from it. As it turns out it turned less into a rankings set and more into a general commentary with some modified rankings listed, it’s different than the standard list so I think there’s value in that. I’m curious to hear what others think though. I’ve gone through this at least a dozen times now, I think I’m finally happy but will probably change my mind when I go back through and read this again before the draft Thursday.
Anyway, I kept up well with the big conference schools, the big(ger) name non BCS schools, players in lesser programs I was tipped off on early enough to watch (or dvr) them, and just about anyone of note regionally (namely, the MAC). Like last year, time constraints have shifted my focus to offensive skill position players only. Hope you enjoy…
Running Backs
Not someone I’d target in the top 20 but once the top end guys at other positions are gone I’d go get him
Jahvid Best – nope, not CJ Spiller. Best is a legit RB and unlike others want you to believe is no more susceptible to injury than anyone else. Unlike the aforementioned Spiller, Best has between the tackles ability making him the only high upside potential feature back in this class. He’ll probably be the third back taken, curious to see which team will be smart enough to wait.
Likely committee backs, but on the good end of the committee and have qualities that could distinguish them from competition – round 2 targets
Toby Gerhart – already knew he was more agile than fast and ran through garbage better than anyone, but did not expect him to be as fast as he was. I switched the order of the three in this tier every time I went through, in the end I’m putting the guy I want first. He’s a more agile version of Shonn Greene that has ability to help in the passing game too.
Ryan Matthews – I don’t dislike him in any way but he is a carbon copy of Matt Forte in my eyes, not bad but nothing special. He has the prototypical build of a RB and will be a good leader to a committee, but he shouldn’t be leaned on as a bell cow.
CJ Spiller – blasphemy! I’ve never been high on Spiller and think others are too infatuated with his measureables and less with trying to see if his game will translate to the next level. It might, but there are way too many questions to warrant a 1st round pick to find out. If you were to give me the names Reggie Bush, Darren McFadden, Chris Johnson, and Jamaal Charles and asked me to list who I expect him to be in order I’d list it Bush-Charles-McFadden-Johnson. In the end, the ceiling’s not there. A guy like Spiller is someone you look for on Friday (McCluster), not Thursday.
Committee backs that I think are better than they are given credit for – in other words, guys I’d target in the later rounds that will out produce their draft position
Anthony Dixon – I haven’t seen a good player comparison and can’t think of one either. Is there a RB of his size with his abilities in the passing game that is also agile enough in the backfield to make guys miss but will never be confused with a burner? Yea, I can’t think of one either…but I want it.
Brandon Minor – everything Blount is except for the character questions, so why is one talked about and the other ignored?
James Starks – if you’re looking for a sleeper RB in this year’s draft he’s probably it. He’s a little under sized, but otherwise possesses all the attributes you want in a starting RB. Rather than take any of the next three guys below just wait a bit and take Starks instead. If it weren’t for the shoulder injury this Kevin Smith clone would be a top 50 pick.
Over rated committee backs, they will have better short term opportunities due to draft position even though they shouldn’t. I would rather wait and take any of the aforementioned 3 later than any of these guys on Friday
Jonathan Dwyer – LenWhale White part deux. Pass.
Ben Tate – I know a lot of people really like his game, but I don’t see it. I think he’s a backup, and a good one, but shouldn’t be relied on for more than a short period of time to cover an injury as the lead back. Definitely not someone I’d target before Saturday.
Montario Hardesty – Tate, rinse, and repeat.
Don’t forget these names, but don’t target them either
Stafon Johnson – I refuse to give up on him, he’s not been the same since almost dying (who wouldn’t) but everything I saw before still leaves me knowing he has feature back potential…it just may take a while.
Chris Brown – if it weren’t for DeMarco Murray and his supreme overratedness he may be a top 100 pick, I don’t think there’s much of a difference between him and the over rated SEC backs mentioned before.
LeGarrette Blount – at absolute best he’s Brandon Jacobs, who I am convinced was only as good as he was because of his superior offensive line. Maybe Blount will be so lucky…
Shawnberry McNeal – has the same game as the next guy listed below but without the name recognition, I usually trend towards the unknown, there’s more incentive for them to work harder
Guys to talk about in the last round, but more than likely guys to call on Sunday instead
Joe McKnight – meh, he could be decent in limited duty but nothing special and give the guy too many carries and his production will decline accordingly
Dmitri Nance – extreme health hazard, but has solid short yardage abilities
Javarris James/Keith Toston – listing them together because I see them similarly, guys I’d like to have as #3 or #4 because I think they could be adequate stopgaps but expecting any more is a set up for disappointment. Neither has any special qualities and their bad ones aren’t so bad that they would be liabilities on the field.
Wide Receivers
Great WR with strong headcase potential – I have no idea when he will (or should) go but when and where will tell a lot about how I feel about him post draft
Dez Bryant – He has all the physical tools to be a #1 for a long, long time but his mental shortcomings could dictate otherwise. I’d feel a lot better about him if a good team trades up for him than I would if a bad team like Buffalo or Denver took him.
The best high risk player in the draft
Demaryius Thomas – he needs at least a year and maybe two, but once he gets the route tree down this guy is going to be good; possibly scary good. I have dreams of him falling to Cleveland in round 2, but they’re just that, dreams.
I don’t want to like him, but am struggling to find good reasons not to – if he were to fall to round 2 I’d be hard pressed to pass
Golden Tate – at some point they will stop being one person tiers, I don’t think Tate has a large ceiling but my speed concerns were erased this offseason. I don’t think he has difference maker potential, but at worst the guy is a solid #2. If expectations are too high it could have a negative consequence though.
When things start to get interesting, there are several guys that will go in round 2 and 3 that shouldn’t. Take these guys round 3 a/o 4 instead.
Taylor Price – took over games in 2009 even playing at just 70%, those that have watched him this offseason have gotten to see a glimpse of what’s to come. He’s legit.
Marcus Easley – enormous ceiling, due to both his physical attributes and indescribable work ethic. He’s raw and patience will be required, but those that wait will be rewarded.
Andre Roberts – I’m riding the hype machine here, I’ve loved everything I’ve seen but admittedly I never watched him before January. Had heard of him, just hadn’t watched him.
Not sure where to put him so I just found the mean and threw him there
Dexter McCluster – his 40 time confuses me, but I know what I saw on the field. His pad speed is for real. Still, size limitations make ranking him difficult. On an actual team he could be the #3 guy on this list if properly utilized, depends on the team though. On the right team he is a great round 3 target.
Not worth the asking price
Arrellious Benn – I, you, everyone else, and even Benn himself is clueless about him. The only thing I’m certain of is there are better risks to take later in the draft. Depending on what team he goes to I may waffle between now and dyno rookie draft day. I know, real committal on my part.
Mardy Gilyard – lack of speed kills his upside, he’ll be a solid returner and slot guy but that’s about it. I think he goes too early, but if he falls far enough he’s a safe investment.
Brandon LaFell –It’s not that I don’t like LaFell, it’s that I don’t like the value. There isn’t a special quality about him, the same type of player can be found many, many rounds later. Pass.
Damian Williams – LaFell, rinse, and repeat.
Struggled distinguishing which to list first among my favorite later round upside targets and my favorite later round safer investments so I lumped them all together in one tier and listed them in order of awesomeness
Emmanuel Sanders – circled his name before the 2009 season as one to watch, glad I did. He is under sized, but he’s quick, agile, fast enough, and plays like a warrior. Largely forgotten about…well…everywhere, he is going to be a day 3 bargain.
Freddie Barnes – was slightly concerned in January he was going to become expensive after ripping it up in Orlando. After getting his bubble popped by the Combine invite committee he underwhelmed at his pro day and now he’s back to being the afterthought I want him to be. He is Jordan Shipley with much better play making ability. There are several consistent WR’s in this draft with physical limitations (two others can be found directly below) but none of them carry the play making ability of Barnes.
Eric Decker – torn on him vs. Barnes, but am not going to spend too much time contrasting and comparing them. To summarize, Decker has a bit more physical upside but has more risks due to health concerns and hasn’t demonstrated the consistent play making ability Barnes has. I usually trend toward the guy with health issues and more upside, but the lack of play making tape on Decker makes him an exception to the rule. Not sure though. Be happy with either.
Kerry Meier – much less exciting of a guy than Barnes and Decker but will get the job done. He’s several notches above Shipley because, being new to the position, still has room to grow whereas Shipley has capped out.
Danario Alexander – I really…really like this kid’s game. He’s a bit on the thin side and he plays a bit stiff,, but properly utilized he can take over games. Problem is his knees are pieced together with sticky tack and glue. I’m more apt to take the risk on my fantasy team than real team.
Carlton Mitchell – Never watched him, most of you are well aware of the upside this kid carries, could go a lot earlier than many expect draft day.
David Gettis – very, very raw. I wanted to follow him more this offseason but just haven’t, I’m really curious to learn how he’s interviewed because his ability to learn and execute will dictate whether he ever gets a shot or not. He has the tools to be one of those guys teams like back on three years from now and go, ‘why didn’t we like that guy?’
Seyi Ajirotutu – flashed ability in school, but didn’t get much opportunity due to his scheme. If he falls far enough I’d take a shot.
Guys I’m not interested in that others seem interested in, I’d like to avoid the ‘where is ____’ posts so I’m throwing these three in here
Jeremy Williams – (disclaimer) never watched him, scribbled his name down a few times but never got around to watching him outside of what’s accessible on the web. Everything I’ve read says I am not missing much, so he goes here. What little I’ve seen reminds me a bit of the other Williams WR in this draft that will be over drafted.
Mike Williams – Quitting midseason is more than just a red flag, I know others like him because of his physical ability but I’d erase him from the draft board.
Jordan Shipley – I don’t dislike the guy, he has the mind set I wish more guys above have, but he’s maxed out his potential. He’s little different than Quan Cosby from last year, a better locker room asset than on-the-field asset.
Rather than continuing on at this point I’m just going to list guys I’d consider drafting but more than likely will be on the ‘to call’ list on Sunday – Shay Hodge (someone on this list with an ounce of upside…just an ounce though), Dezmon Briscoe (marginal prospect that don’t go over the middle don’t interest me), Antonio Brown (I want to like him more but he’s not big, fast, nor does he make plays), Kyle Williams (Donte Stallworth thinks his hamstrings are weak – I want to like him more), Riley Cooper (Shipley but less consistent), Namaan Roosevelt (an athlete but can’t play football), Blair White (I’m convinced Orlando was a mirage, I watched a lot of Sparty ball and White is very ordinary), Jacoby Ford (track doesn’t pay what football does, so we have to deal with him for the next 2 years)
Quarterbacks
Future stud
Sam Bradford – people look for reasons not to like him, problem is there aren’t any.
Mental midget with skills
Jimmy Clausen – the further he falls in the draft the better I feel about his long term prospects. He is everything you want in a QB from the neck down, but his head will probably be his undoing. The laundry list of potential issues is extensive, even if he proves some questions wrong (blaming others, passion for the game, being a leader, among many other things) I don’t think he proves enough to be the QB a team needs to get to the next level.
The only other QB worth targeting before pick 200
Dan LeFevour – doesn’t have near the ceiling of the top two, but is a significantly better bet to pan out in the league than others that will be taken before him. There isn’t a weakness in his game (his deep ball floats a little bit…so?} , he just didn’t get the level of competition in school the McCoy’s and Tebow’s did. He may slip to day 3 and someone’s getting themselves a steal.
QB’s to target after pick 200
Jonathan Crompton – could his turnaround throughout 2009 be the beginning of him realizing his potential? I don’t know, because he was really…really bad before then, but there’s reason to believe. He has the tools to succeed and if the inconsistency issues that plagued him through college are behind him this kid will probably get a shot at some point.
Jarrett Brown – he has upside. A lot of it. But a very small chance of ever living up to it. He’s a project. A team in need of a wild cat option and sitting on question marks beyond 2011 or 2012 (Seattle and Jacksonville immediately come to mind) should look him up sometime on day 3.
Jevan Snead –beyond horrible in 2009 and there’s little reason to believe that will change. His learning curve will be smaller than guys listed below so he’s got that going for him. He also will have lower expectations; maybe working out of the spotlight will help him realize the potential he has.
These guys will be taken early and won’t amount to much more than headaches and people getting fired
Colt McCoy – I’d rather take a shot on a Matt Nichols, John Skelton, Levi Brown, Joe Webb, or even Ryan Perriloux than these last 3 guys. At least with the small school guys you don’t know what you’re going to get. McCoy has tunnel vision, is afraid to go down field, and does not respond well to pressure. In Country Club Mack Brown’s resort he’s a perfect fit, but I’m still looking for an NFL franchise with the same resort-like atmosphere.
Tim Tebow - unlike most people low on Tebow I have nothing against him and wish more people should be like him. Except maybe those other people will have the foresight to keep their traps shut before asking for a group prayer before sitting down to take their Wonderlic. He has rock for brains, but an iron heart. Nothing will turn him into a pro QB though. He’ll be on (or nearing) contract #2 before he possibly provides positive value for whoever drafts him, that’s the type of guy dial up in round 7; not round 2.
Tony Pike – Ok, Pike probably won’t get anyone fired, but he will be a waste of a perfectly good mid round pick. The deer in headlights performance vs. Florida was the perfect conclusion to his college career’s story. When everything’s going right around him he is great, but when adversity hits Pike retreats to his turtle shell with remarkable consistency.
Tight Ends
These guys will be good, but no more than 2nd round good so don’t go crazy
Rob Gronkowski – I’m gambling on his back, I’ll be more likely to gamble if he goes to a good destination.
Aaron Hernandez – a much more attractive fantasy option than real option, Tim Tebow’s tunnel vision and lack of ability really helped his stock. Still, he’ll do more good than bad, just don’t ask him to block much.
Jimmy Graham – I love upside and this guy’s full of it.
Jermaine Gresham – I love upside and this guy has none of it. He’ll be a decent contributor but he’ll be considered a letdown because he’s going to be a round 1 pick.
Big…big drop off. Some of these guys will go in the middle rounds but I don’t see the value until later. Take the one that falls that fits your scheme
Ed Dickson – athletically gifted, will probably be the first of these guys to be drafted, not so sure he warrants it though…relatively speaking anyway.
Andrew Quarless – my decisions aren’t million dollar high pressure decisions, so taking him over guys like Graham, McCoy, and Pitta is not that difficult. Admittedly, if I were in the war room, I’d keep my mouth shut when these three names would surface. Quarless has a much higher ceiling, but my God this guy is an idiot.
Garrett Graham – he’s not as good as former teammate Travis Beckum who looks like he may be a disappointment. I’m very skeptical.
Anthony McCoy – he has physical tools, but has not developed them in what’s considered a pro factory. Something doesn’t add up. I think he just may be more stupid than he is cancerous, but he might be just stupid enough to affect his NFL future. Fringe prospects like him can’t get by with his warts, so hopefully they’re behind him.
Dennis Pitta – unexciting and uninspiring but will get the job done. My fascination with upside unfairly knocks him down my board.
Tony Moeaki – his second home is the training office, but he has the ability to take over games. Someone will give him a shot, maybe that team can get him on a program that actually keeps him healthy.
If I have time this week, which is looking highly unlikely, I’d like to go through with a perfect draft simulation following a few select teams, focusing on ones in need of the play makers mentioned above.
Anyway…DISCUSS!
#1 break up into tiers
#2 identify names of tiers (as it turns out I think the name was more important than anything else)
#3 identify round values (real draft, not fantasy draft) for each tier
#4 repeat 1-3 until no changes are made
Seems simple, in theory, but in practice it was far from it. As it turns out it turned less into a rankings set and more into a general commentary with some modified rankings listed, it’s different than the standard list so I think there’s value in that. I’m curious to hear what others think though. I’ve gone through this at least a dozen times now, I think I’m finally happy but will probably change my mind when I go back through and read this again before the draft Thursday.
Anyway, I kept up well with the big conference schools, the big(ger) name non BCS schools, players in lesser programs I was tipped off on early enough to watch (or dvr) them, and just about anyone of note regionally (namely, the MAC). Like last year, time constraints have shifted my focus to offensive skill position players only. Hope you enjoy…
Running Backs
Not someone I’d target in the top 20 but once the top end guys at other positions are gone I’d go get him
Jahvid Best – nope, not CJ Spiller. Best is a legit RB and unlike others want you to believe is no more susceptible to injury than anyone else. Unlike the aforementioned Spiller, Best has between the tackles ability making him the only high upside potential feature back in this class. He’ll probably be the third back taken, curious to see which team will be smart enough to wait.
Likely committee backs, but on the good end of the committee and have qualities that could distinguish them from competition – round 2 targets
Toby Gerhart – already knew he was more agile than fast and ran through garbage better than anyone, but did not expect him to be as fast as he was. I switched the order of the three in this tier every time I went through, in the end I’m putting the guy I want first. He’s a more agile version of Shonn Greene that has ability to help in the passing game too.
Ryan Matthews – I don’t dislike him in any way but he is a carbon copy of Matt Forte in my eyes, not bad but nothing special. He has the prototypical build of a RB and will be a good leader to a committee, but he shouldn’t be leaned on as a bell cow.
CJ Spiller – blasphemy! I’ve never been high on Spiller and think others are too infatuated with his measureables and less with trying to see if his game will translate to the next level. It might, but there are way too many questions to warrant a 1st round pick to find out. If you were to give me the names Reggie Bush, Darren McFadden, Chris Johnson, and Jamaal Charles and asked me to list who I expect him to be in order I’d list it Bush-Charles-McFadden-Johnson. In the end, the ceiling’s not there. A guy like Spiller is someone you look for on Friday (McCluster), not Thursday.
Committee backs that I think are better than they are given credit for – in other words, guys I’d target in the later rounds that will out produce their draft position
Anthony Dixon – I haven’t seen a good player comparison and can’t think of one either. Is there a RB of his size with his abilities in the passing game that is also agile enough in the backfield to make guys miss but will never be confused with a burner? Yea, I can’t think of one either…but I want it.
Brandon Minor – everything Blount is except for the character questions, so why is one talked about and the other ignored?
James Starks – if you’re looking for a sleeper RB in this year’s draft he’s probably it. He’s a little under sized, but otherwise possesses all the attributes you want in a starting RB. Rather than take any of the next three guys below just wait a bit and take Starks instead. If it weren’t for the shoulder injury this Kevin Smith clone would be a top 50 pick.
Over rated committee backs, they will have better short term opportunities due to draft position even though they shouldn’t. I would rather wait and take any of the aforementioned 3 later than any of these guys on Friday
Jonathan Dwyer – LenWhale White part deux. Pass.
Ben Tate – I know a lot of people really like his game, but I don’t see it. I think he’s a backup, and a good one, but shouldn’t be relied on for more than a short period of time to cover an injury as the lead back. Definitely not someone I’d target before Saturday.
Montario Hardesty – Tate, rinse, and repeat.
Don’t forget these names, but don’t target them either
Stafon Johnson – I refuse to give up on him, he’s not been the same since almost dying (who wouldn’t) but everything I saw before still leaves me knowing he has feature back potential…it just may take a while.
Chris Brown – if it weren’t for DeMarco Murray and his supreme overratedness he may be a top 100 pick, I don’t think there’s much of a difference between him and the over rated SEC backs mentioned before.
LeGarrette Blount – at absolute best he’s Brandon Jacobs, who I am convinced was only as good as he was because of his superior offensive line. Maybe Blount will be so lucky…
Shawnberry McNeal – has the same game as the next guy listed below but without the name recognition, I usually trend towards the unknown, there’s more incentive for them to work harder
Guys to talk about in the last round, but more than likely guys to call on Sunday instead
Joe McKnight – meh, he could be decent in limited duty but nothing special and give the guy too many carries and his production will decline accordingly
Dmitri Nance – extreme health hazard, but has solid short yardage abilities
Javarris James/Keith Toston – listing them together because I see them similarly, guys I’d like to have as #3 or #4 because I think they could be adequate stopgaps but expecting any more is a set up for disappointment. Neither has any special qualities and their bad ones aren’t so bad that they would be liabilities on the field.
Wide Receivers
Great WR with strong headcase potential – I have no idea when he will (or should) go but when and where will tell a lot about how I feel about him post draft
Dez Bryant – He has all the physical tools to be a #1 for a long, long time but his mental shortcomings could dictate otherwise. I’d feel a lot better about him if a good team trades up for him than I would if a bad team like Buffalo or Denver took him.
The best high risk player in the draft
Demaryius Thomas – he needs at least a year and maybe two, but once he gets the route tree down this guy is going to be good; possibly scary good. I have dreams of him falling to Cleveland in round 2, but they’re just that, dreams.
I don’t want to like him, but am struggling to find good reasons not to – if he were to fall to round 2 I’d be hard pressed to pass
Golden Tate – at some point they will stop being one person tiers, I don’t think Tate has a large ceiling but my speed concerns were erased this offseason. I don’t think he has difference maker potential, but at worst the guy is a solid #2. If expectations are too high it could have a negative consequence though.
When things start to get interesting, there are several guys that will go in round 2 and 3 that shouldn’t. Take these guys round 3 a/o 4 instead.
Taylor Price – took over games in 2009 even playing at just 70%, those that have watched him this offseason have gotten to see a glimpse of what’s to come. He’s legit.
Marcus Easley – enormous ceiling, due to both his physical attributes and indescribable work ethic. He’s raw and patience will be required, but those that wait will be rewarded.
Andre Roberts – I’m riding the hype machine here, I’ve loved everything I’ve seen but admittedly I never watched him before January. Had heard of him, just hadn’t watched him.
Not sure where to put him so I just found the mean and threw him there
Dexter McCluster – his 40 time confuses me, but I know what I saw on the field. His pad speed is for real. Still, size limitations make ranking him difficult. On an actual team he could be the #3 guy on this list if properly utilized, depends on the team though. On the right team he is a great round 3 target.
Not worth the asking price
Arrellious Benn – I, you, everyone else, and even Benn himself is clueless about him. The only thing I’m certain of is there are better risks to take later in the draft. Depending on what team he goes to I may waffle between now and dyno rookie draft day. I know, real committal on my part.
Mardy Gilyard – lack of speed kills his upside, he’ll be a solid returner and slot guy but that’s about it. I think he goes too early, but if he falls far enough he’s a safe investment.
Brandon LaFell –It’s not that I don’t like LaFell, it’s that I don’t like the value. There isn’t a special quality about him, the same type of player can be found many, many rounds later. Pass.
Damian Williams – LaFell, rinse, and repeat.
Struggled distinguishing which to list first among my favorite later round upside targets and my favorite later round safer investments so I lumped them all together in one tier and listed them in order of awesomeness
Emmanuel Sanders – circled his name before the 2009 season as one to watch, glad I did. He is under sized, but he’s quick, agile, fast enough, and plays like a warrior. Largely forgotten about…well…everywhere, he is going to be a day 3 bargain.
Freddie Barnes – was slightly concerned in January he was going to become expensive after ripping it up in Orlando. After getting his bubble popped by the Combine invite committee he underwhelmed at his pro day and now he’s back to being the afterthought I want him to be. He is Jordan Shipley with much better play making ability. There are several consistent WR’s in this draft with physical limitations (two others can be found directly below) but none of them carry the play making ability of Barnes.
Eric Decker – torn on him vs. Barnes, but am not going to spend too much time contrasting and comparing them. To summarize, Decker has a bit more physical upside but has more risks due to health concerns and hasn’t demonstrated the consistent play making ability Barnes has. I usually trend toward the guy with health issues and more upside, but the lack of play making tape on Decker makes him an exception to the rule. Not sure though. Be happy with either.
Kerry Meier – much less exciting of a guy than Barnes and Decker but will get the job done. He’s several notches above Shipley because, being new to the position, still has room to grow whereas Shipley has capped out.
Danario Alexander – I really…really like this kid’s game. He’s a bit on the thin side and he plays a bit stiff,, but properly utilized he can take over games. Problem is his knees are pieced together with sticky tack and glue. I’m more apt to take the risk on my fantasy team than real team.
Carlton Mitchell – Never watched him, most of you are well aware of the upside this kid carries, could go a lot earlier than many expect draft day.
David Gettis – very, very raw. I wanted to follow him more this offseason but just haven’t, I’m really curious to learn how he’s interviewed because his ability to learn and execute will dictate whether he ever gets a shot or not. He has the tools to be one of those guys teams like back on three years from now and go, ‘why didn’t we like that guy?’
Seyi Ajirotutu – flashed ability in school, but didn’t get much opportunity due to his scheme. If he falls far enough I’d take a shot.
Guys I’m not interested in that others seem interested in, I’d like to avoid the ‘where is ____’ posts so I’m throwing these three in here
Jeremy Williams – (disclaimer) never watched him, scribbled his name down a few times but never got around to watching him outside of what’s accessible on the web. Everything I’ve read says I am not missing much, so he goes here. What little I’ve seen reminds me a bit of the other Williams WR in this draft that will be over drafted.
Mike Williams – Quitting midseason is more than just a red flag, I know others like him because of his physical ability but I’d erase him from the draft board.
Jordan Shipley – I don’t dislike the guy, he has the mind set I wish more guys above have, but he’s maxed out his potential. He’s little different than Quan Cosby from last year, a better locker room asset than on-the-field asset.
Rather than continuing on at this point I’m just going to list guys I’d consider drafting but more than likely will be on the ‘to call’ list on Sunday – Shay Hodge (someone on this list with an ounce of upside…just an ounce though), Dezmon Briscoe (marginal prospect that don’t go over the middle don’t interest me), Antonio Brown (I want to like him more but he’s not big, fast, nor does he make plays), Kyle Williams (Donte Stallworth thinks his hamstrings are weak – I want to like him more), Riley Cooper (Shipley but less consistent), Namaan Roosevelt (an athlete but can’t play football), Blair White (I’m convinced Orlando was a mirage, I watched a lot of Sparty ball and White is very ordinary), Jacoby Ford (track doesn’t pay what football does, so we have to deal with him for the next 2 years)
Quarterbacks
Future stud
Sam Bradford – people look for reasons not to like him, problem is there aren’t any.
Mental midget with skills
Jimmy Clausen – the further he falls in the draft the better I feel about his long term prospects. He is everything you want in a QB from the neck down, but his head will probably be his undoing. The laundry list of potential issues is extensive, even if he proves some questions wrong (blaming others, passion for the game, being a leader, among many other things) I don’t think he proves enough to be the QB a team needs to get to the next level.
The only other QB worth targeting before pick 200
Dan LeFevour – doesn’t have near the ceiling of the top two, but is a significantly better bet to pan out in the league than others that will be taken before him. There isn’t a weakness in his game (his deep ball floats a little bit…so?} , he just didn’t get the level of competition in school the McCoy’s and Tebow’s did. He may slip to day 3 and someone’s getting themselves a steal.
QB’s to target after pick 200
Jonathan Crompton – could his turnaround throughout 2009 be the beginning of him realizing his potential? I don’t know, because he was really…really bad before then, but there’s reason to believe. He has the tools to succeed and if the inconsistency issues that plagued him through college are behind him this kid will probably get a shot at some point.
Jarrett Brown – he has upside. A lot of it. But a very small chance of ever living up to it. He’s a project. A team in need of a wild cat option and sitting on question marks beyond 2011 or 2012 (Seattle and Jacksonville immediately come to mind) should look him up sometime on day 3.
Jevan Snead –beyond horrible in 2009 and there’s little reason to believe that will change. His learning curve will be smaller than guys listed below so he’s got that going for him. He also will have lower expectations; maybe working out of the spotlight will help him realize the potential he has.
These guys will be taken early and won’t amount to much more than headaches and people getting fired
Colt McCoy – I’d rather take a shot on a Matt Nichols, John Skelton, Levi Brown, Joe Webb, or even Ryan Perriloux than these last 3 guys. At least with the small school guys you don’t know what you’re going to get. McCoy has tunnel vision, is afraid to go down field, and does not respond well to pressure. In Country Club Mack Brown’s resort he’s a perfect fit, but I’m still looking for an NFL franchise with the same resort-like atmosphere.
Tim Tebow - unlike most people low on Tebow I have nothing against him and wish more people should be like him. Except maybe those other people will have the foresight to keep their traps shut before asking for a group prayer before sitting down to take their Wonderlic. He has rock for brains, but an iron heart. Nothing will turn him into a pro QB though. He’ll be on (or nearing) contract #2 before he possibly provides positive value for whoever drafts him, that’s the type of guy dial up in round 7; not round 2.
Tony Pike – Ok, Pike probably won’t get anyone fired, but he will be a waste of a perfectly good mid round pick. The deer in headlights performance vs. Florida was the perfect conclusion to his college career’s story. When everything’s going right around him he is great, but when adversity hits Pike retreats to his turtle shell with remarkable consistency.
Tight Ends
These guys will be good, but no more than 2nd round good so don’t go crazy
Rob Gronkowski – I’m gambling on his back, I’ll be more likely to gamble if he goes to a good destination.
Aaron Hernandez – a much more attractive fantasy option than real option, Tim Tebow’s tunnel vision and lack of ability really helped his stock. Still, he’ll do more good than bad, just don’t ask him to block much.
Jimmy Graham – I love upside and this guy’s full of it.
Jermaine Gresham – I love upside and this guy has none of it. He’ll be a decent contributor but he’ll be considered a letdown because he’s going to be a round 1 pick.
Big…big drop off. Some of these guys will go in the middle rounds but I don’t see the value until later. Take the one that falls that fits your scheme
Ed Dickson – athletically gifted, will probably be the first of these guys to be drafted, not so sure he warrants it though…relatively speaking anyway.
Andrew Quarless – my decisions aren’t million dollar high pressure decisions, so taking him over guys like Graham, McCoy, and Pitta is not that difficult. Admittedly, if I were in the war room, I’d keep my mouth shut when these three names would surface. Quarless has a much higher ceiling, but my God this guy is an idiot.
Garrett Graham – he’s not as good as former teammate Travis Beckum who looks like he may be a disappointment. I’m very skeptical.
Anthony McCoy – he has physical tools, but has not developed them in what’s considered a pro factory. Something doesn’t add up. I think he just may be more stupid than he is cancerous, but he might be just stupid enough to affect his NFL future. Fringe prospects like him can’t get by with his warts, so hopefully they’re behind him.
Dennis Pitta – unexciting and uninspiring but will get the job done. My fascination with upside unfairly knocks him down my board.
Tony Moeaki – his second home is the training office, but he has the ability to take over games. Someone will give him a shot, maybe that team can get him on a program that actually keeps him healthy.
If I have time this week, which is looking highly unlikely, I’d like to go through with a perfect draft simulation following a few select teams, focusing on ones in need of the play makers mentioned above.
Anyway…DISCUSS!
