Jene Bramel
Footballguy
You can find all rankings submission from the staff via the Forecast tab link and this direct link to our overall IDP rankings.
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Staff Rookie Rankings (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Jene Bramel
- Start date
J Giles Band
Footballguy
Thanks Jene!How would you tier this group?
Personally, I believe McClain is in a tier of his own. And saying that, I'm not sure the next best guys (Washington, Dillard, Berry, etc.) are even within a full tier of McClain.
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
Rough tiers...
01 LB ROLANDO MCCLAIN
02 LB DARYL WASHINGTON
03 LB PHILLIP DILLARD
04 DB ERIC BERRY
05 LB SEAN WEATHERSPOON
06 LB DONALD BUTLER
07 LB SEAN LEE
08 DL DERRICK MORGAN
09 DB EARL THOMAS
10 DB MORGAN BURNETT
11 DB NATE ALLEN
12 DB TAYLOR MAYS
13 DL BRANDON GRAHAM
14 DL JERRY HUGHES
15 DL JASON PIERRE-PAUL
16 DB TJ WARD
17 DB KYLE WILSON
18 DB JOE HADEN
19 LB AJ EDDS
20 DB KAREEM JACKSON
21 DL GERALD MCCOY
22 DL NDAMUKONG SUH
23 DB JEROME MURPHY
24 LB PAT ANGERER
25 LB PERRY RILEY
I think McClain and Washington are close and more information about their schemes could widen the spread or remove it entirely. Both are LB2 tier players for me today. McClain could push into the low LB1 tier, Washington could push into the high LB2 tier or better. The third tier is an upside tier -- three players that could push into higher tiers (Dillard into the LB2 tier, Berry into the DB1 tier, Weatherspoon into the LB2/3 tier). The fourth tier is full of high every-down potentials. I've got the backers higher, but they're further away from their upside contributions. Still forming opinions on the safeties, so that tier within a tier is rough for now. I suspect I'm going to have a tough time keeping Morgan Burnett from climbing this summer.
01 LB ROLANDO MCCLAIN
02 LB DARYL WASHINGTON
03 LB PHILLIP DILLARD
04 DB ERIC BERRY
05 LB SEAN WEATHERSPOON
06 LB DONALD BUTLER
07 LB SEAN LEE
08 DL DERRICK MORGAN
09 DB EARL THOMAS
10 DB MORGAN BURNETT
11 DB NATE ALLEN
12 DB TAYLOR MAYS
13 DL BRANDON GRAHAM
14 DL JERRY HUGHES
15 DL JASON PIERRE-PAUL
16 DB TJ WARD
17 DB KYLE WILSON
18 DB JOE HADEN
19 LB AJ EDDS
20 DB KAREEM JACKSON
21 DL GERALD MCCOY
22 DL NDAMUKONG SUH
23 DB JEROME MURPHY
24 LB PAT ANGERER
25 LB PERRY RILEY
I think McClain and Washington are close and more information about their schemes could widen the spread or remove it entirely. Both are LB2 tier players for me today. McClain could push into the low LB1 tier, Washington could push into the high LB2 tier or better. The third tier is an upside tier -- three players that could push into higher tiers (Dillard into the LB2 tier, Berry into the DB1 tier, Weatherspoon into the LB2/3 tier). The fourth tier is full of high every-down potentials. I've got the backers higher, but they're further away from their upside contributions. Still forming opinions on the safeties, so that tier within a tier is rough for now. I suspect I'm going to have a tough time keeping Morgan Burnett from climbing this summer.
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ADP
Footballguy
Thanks Jene! Always appreciated.
I know scoring plays big part in rankings but here are some first look thoughts.....
I think Dillard, Butler, and Lee are too high at moment.
Dillard landed in prime spot but....I just don't think he is a great player. To me is is not much better than current in house options. I see this being a LBBC this year and then a high draft choice next year will be future.
Butler will fight with Siler and Burnett for snaps and Cooper is still the guy to own regardless.
Lee is solid. But not a superior talent. That said, I do think he could eventually be the starter next to James, but to me its just not a good fantasy spot.
I think JPP and K. Wilson are too low.
JPP is in perfect defense to allow him to flourish. Its only a matter of time before he gets his chance. I see 12-15 sack yearly potential with this guy once he does get that chance.I know its a matter of preference with him (boom or bust player) but if you think he will boom, he is too low. If you think he will bust, then he is too high. I am not seeing a middle ground to be honest with him.
K. Wilson is good. Real good. I think he wins job over Cromartie and pushes Cromartie to nickel. Then he will be playing across from Revis. You think K. Wilson will get ball thrown his way a lot. I do. He is probably a tier low.
Guys I would not sleep on that are missing from list.
A. Owusu-Ansah - This guy is stud waiting to happen to me. Has a little Ed Reed in him. He is D2 player so have to consider that so he is risk to bust, but his boom could be very nice.
S. Kindle - Love his talent. Great pass rusher and good in coverage as well. Could put up double digit sack numbers regularly.
J. Worilds - Would have to be patient here but could be next great pass rush OLB for PIT.
D. Stuckey - All about location here. Stuckey not great talent, but neither is other options SD has.
I know scoring plays big part in rankings but here are some first look thoughts.....
I think Dillard, Butler, and Lee are too high at moment.
Dillard landed in prime spot but....I just don't think he is a great player. To me is is not much better than current in house options. I see this being a LBBC this year and then a high draft choice next year will be future.
Butler will fight with Siler and Burnett for snaps and Cooper is still the guy to own regardless.
Lee is solid. But not a superior talent. That said, I do think he could eventually be the starter next to James, but to me its just not a good fantasy spot.
I think JPP and K. Wilson are too low.
JPP is in perfect defense to allow him to flourish. Its only a matter of time before he gets his chance. I see 12-15 sack yearly potential with this guy once he does get that chance.I know its a matter of preference with him (boom or bust player) but if you think he will boom, he is too low. If you think he will bust, then he is too high. I am not seeing a middle ground to be honest with him.
K. Wilson is good. Real good. I think he wins job over Cromartie and pushes Cromartie to nickel. Then he will be playing across from Revis. You think K. Wilson will get ball thrown his way a lot. I do. He is probably a tier low.
Guys I would not sleep on that are missing from list.
A. Owusu-Ansah - This guy is stud waiting to happen to me. Has a little Ed Reed in him. He is D2 player so have to consider that so he is risk to bust, but his boom could be very nice.
S. Kindle - Love his talent. Great pass rusher and good in coverage as well. Could put up double digit sack numbers regularly.
J. Worilds - Would have to be patient here but could be next great pass rush OLB for PIT.
D. Stuckey - All about location here. Stuckey not great talent, but neither is other options SD has.
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
Bah, missed Wright somewhere in the cut and paste on my sheets. He's in that tier of safeties among Burnett, Allen, etc.
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
Appreciate the input, ADP.I think Dillard, Lee and Butler have the favor of their coaching staffs and will be given an opportunity to win every-down roles at some point in the next 1-3 seasons. That potential carries higher value for me than most DL or DB talent (unless I'm comfortable projecting top 15 long term value at those positions).I like Stuckey, too. He's going to be in my top 40 for sure.
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
I'm think he push Guyton immediately but I'm not convinced he will play every down. He'll be in the bottom half of the top 40.
JOBOOZOSO
Footballguy
Rd 4, pick 17Phillip Dillard, ILB Nebraska
There were a total of 101 linebackers drafted after the second round between '06-'09. There is a 0% chance at drafting a rookie starter. I want nothing to do with Dillard.
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Jene Bramel
Footballguy
The odds are certainly stacked against a late round pick stepping into an every-down role in his rookie season. Rookie only rankings carry a long term bias, however, and plenty of linebackers drafted after the third round have developed into fantasy starters. I think it's very reasonable to suggest that Dillard, in this opportunity and with this surrounding cast, can crack the top 25 (LB2 range) in the next 1-3 seasons. The #3 ranking is probably pushing it, though, and he probably belongs in the tier below.And Dillard deserves extra credit in your study. The Giants wanted to draft him in the third round.
ADP
Footballguy
They wanted to draft him because they were just panicking cause they needed to get a LB. Personally I see the Giants drafting LB in round 1 next year. Dillard is not long term answer at MLB.The odds are certainly stacked against a late round pick stepping into an every-down role in his rookie season. Rookie only rankings carry a long term bias, however, and plenty of linebackers drafted after the third round have developed into fantasy starters. I think it's very reasonable to suggest that Dillard, in this opportunity and with this surrounding cast, can crack the top 25 (LB2 range) in the next 1-3 seasons. The #3 ranking is probably pushing it, though, and he probably belongs in the tier below.And Dillard deserves extra credit in your study. The Giants wanted to draft him in the third round.
JOBOOZOSO
Footballguy
And it's a deep draft too, so I'm okay with pretending he's a 3rd rd pick.
OUr league is start a 4-4-3, 3-4-4, 3-3-5 options. Sacks are 4 each, INt 5 and tackesl 1. Assists half
I did a mock and it went like this(now need is in the equation also)
1. Rolando McClain
2. Jason Pierre Paul
3. Eric Berry
4. Derrick Morgan
5. Sean Weatherspoon
6. Brandon Graham
7. Jerry Hughes
8. Earl Thomas
9. Sean Lee
10. Daryl Washington
11. Nate Allen
12. Kao Misi
13. Morgan Burnett
14. Sergio Kindle
15. Taylor Mays
16. Pat Angerer
17. Brandon Spikes
18. Donald Butler
19. TJ Ward
20. Corey Wooten
21. Major Wright
22. Ndamakong Suh
I did a mock and it went like this(now need is in the equation also)
1. Rolando McClain
2. Jason Pierre Paul
3. Eric Berry
4. Derrick Morgan
5. Sean Weatherspoon
6. Brandon Graham
7. Jerry Hughes
8. Earl Thomas
9. Sean Lee
10. Daryl Washington
11. Nate Allen
12. Kao Misi
13. Morgan Burnett
14. Sergio Kindle
15. Taylor Mays
16. Pat Angerer
17. Brandon Spikes
18. Donald Butler
19. TJ Ward
20. Corey Wooten
21. Major Wright
22. Ndamakong Suh
Thanks for the post up. Surprised to see Washington at #10.
Washington will probably move up. Issue in league is that good DE`s is becoming such scarce commodity in the fantasy and the scoring makes start 4 DL(1 DT and 3 DE) better than 2 CB and 2 S. There is just not many out there and this is a pretty good looking DE class. I could see Berry dropping down to that 8 range in the end along with Thomas. I like this D draft for the first 15 guys hereThanks for the post up. Surprised to see Washington at #10.
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Anthony Borbely
Footballguy
I agree. I also think the depth is lacking.
My preliminary rankings are up but I expect them to change quite a bit in the weeks ahead.
Tick
Footballguy
What's wrong with 1.04? Mathews, Bryant, Best, Spiller.
cr8f
Footballguy
Those are OK but it just seems most of the good players landed in bad spots.
Most Giants fans seem to think Dillard is a backup/special teamer. Do you like him mostly because of situation or do you truly feel the kid can play? Any thoughts on Goff?The odds are certainly stacked against a late round pick stepping into an every-down role in his rookie season. Rookie only rankings carry a long term bias, however, and plenty of linebackers drafted after the third round have developed into fantasy starters. I think it's very reasonable to suggest that Dillard, in this opportunity and with this surrounding cast, can crack the top 25 (LB2 range) in the next 1-3 seasons. The #3 ranking is probably pushing it, though, and he probably belongs in the tier below.And Dillard deserves extra credit in your study. The Giants wanted to draft him in the third round.
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
My rookie rankings are based on upside over a 1-3 year window. My bias is to favor every-down linebackers (even those with downside) over safeties with DB2 or worse upside and lineman who may take a year or more to develop. Those who have been around FBG for awhile are hopefully aware of that bias and are trying to save me from myself. I'm the guy who tends to recommend reaching for guys like Alfred Fincher and Lance Mitchell. I've tempered those leanings in recent years, but it still bubbles under the surface. Knowing the above, feel free to disregard and dismiss the below argument as you will.My ranking of Dillard isn't a statement that I think he's the most talented linebacker in that tier, but I don't think it's a stretch to argue that he has a legitimate shot at an every-down MLB job in the near future. If he's good enough to earn that role, he should beat out his competition sooner than Butler and Lee. I'd argue that his pure upside in that role is better than that of Sean Weatherspoon.
The arguments against Dillard are that he's a fourth round pick that may have been a panic pick and that there are multiple players competing for the job already. I don't disagree with those concerns. A closer examination, however, at his competition pokes a few holes in that argument.
Jonathan Goff -- 5th round pick out of Vanderbilt with a scouting report not unlike that of Dillard. Has had two seasons, including a full year without Antonio Pierce, to make his mark. Flashed at times, but struggled to defend the run consistently, isn't considered above average in coverage. Argument can easily be made that the new defensive coaching staff saw enough on tape to look for help in the draft. That argument would be stronger if they prioritized the position more highly, but it's still a legit argument.
Chase Blackburn -- Undrafted player who's performed well, but clearly hasn't been seen as a long term answer by anyone among the Giants' front office or coaching staff.
Gerris Wilkinson -- 3rd round pick who's been with the team for four years already. Not durable and couldn't win the WLB job despite multiple opportunities. Given the lowest possible tender despite the holes at linebacker.
That's not exactly a murderer's row of potentials with a higher pedigree or clearly holding the favor of the current coaching staff. And I don't think I'm being taken in by the favorable comments from the front office that Dillard was a targeted high middle round pick.I think the competition is between Goff and Dillard. It's a new playbook for everyone and a fresh start with a new defensive coordinator. I see no reason that Goff will be given the job and I don't think Blackburn or Wilkinson are factors. There's a chance that Michael Boley might be the only linebacker on the field in nickel packages this year, but the MLB here has a strong chance at being an every-down player.
Dillard won't remind anyone of Ray Lewis, but he should remind you of another MLB. A undrafted player thought to have a limited skill set who grew to become a very good all-around player in a Tampa-2 scheme. Unlike that player, Dillard doesn't have a pedigreed first round pick limiting his immediate upside.
That's my thought process here.
If you're still with me, it should also be noted that I can make similar upside arguments for Donald Butler (who I really like and will bump those above him down with any hint of good news this summer) and Sean Lee. The LB3-LB6 slots (which may eventually include a guy like AJ Edds, too) are very likely to shift with each passing minicamp and OTA blurb.
In the end, if you're looking for a possible every-down backer with an ETA in the next two seasons, you pick the guy you like and go get him. For me, that guy is likely going to be either Dillard or Butler.
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Yes still with you, its always interesting to read your take. I have Dillard as a good target for the 4th round in a 14 team rookie draft. Seems fair for a player that might be a couple of years away from doing much (if ever).
If you own Goff and your league has a taxi squad, maybe even a third.
If you own Goff and your league has a taxi squad, maybe even a third.
Zoomanji
Footballguy
Judging by the other available LBs and how much LBs score in a league I could see him going earlier. I was thinking mid 3rd in a 16 team as the latest but wouldn't be surprised to see him go late 2nd in that league
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
RE: Dillard
Something that's giving me pause as I examine some of the later ETA prospects for a DynastyGuys blog post is the recent track record of the NYG front office in evaluating linebackers.
Jonathan Goff
Bryan Kehl
Clint Sintim
Zac DeOssie
Gerris Wilkinson
All mid round draft picks who have struggled to make any consistent impact since 2006. Coupled with the in-draft comments from the NYG brass last week, the post-draft comments about their confidence in targeting Dillard in the middle rounds should probably be taken with a bigger grain of salt than I first thought.
Something that's giving me pause as I examine some of the later ETA prospects for a DynastyGuys blog post is the recent track record of the NYG front office in evaluating linebackers.
Jonathan Goff
Bryan Kehl
Clint Sintim
Zac DeOssie
Gerris Wilkinson
All mid round draft picks who have struggled to make any consistent impact since 2006. Coupled with the in-draft comments from the NYG brass last week, the post-draft comments about their confidence in targeting Dillard in the middle rounds should probably be taken with a bigger grain of salt than I first thought.
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massraider
Footballguy
It's one of those things where I think if a person is looking for a LB, his situation makes him attractive to someone. I don't think it's a slam dunk that he gets the MLB job, we all fall in love with rookies whose shortcomings we haven't seen yet. It's a confusing situation at MLB there, as they have a lot of candidates. But maybe not a bad idea to pick up a few of these candidates on the cheap, and hope that one takes hold of the job before you have to make roster decisions.Jene Bramel said:
Barry Jive and The Uptown Five
Footballguy
Where are all the other rankings (Norton, Bloom, etc.)?
Is it only going to be Rude & Jene?
Last year we also had:
Borberly
Bloom
Pasquino
Norton
Is it only going to be Rude & Jene?
Last year we also had:
Borberly
Bloom
Pasquino
Norton
Anthony Borbely
Footballguy
Mine will be up tomorrow. I wanted to update my dynasty rankings first with rookies and just finished the IDP dynasties today.
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Barry Jive and The Uptown Five
Footballguy
Anthony Borbely said:
Just in time... after 3 offensive picks, it's time to start looking @ D 
Anthony Borbely
Footballguy
My rookie IDP rankings are up and all dynasty IDP positional rankings are updated.
philly_battery_thrower
Footballguy
Jene (or anyone for that matter) - what are your thoughts on Brandon Graham. I'm not going to nitpick, but do you see a big enough difference between him and Morgan that they're actually in different tiers? Does the presence of Trent Cole make things easier for Graham...or is he a notch below b/c the Eagles tend to rotate guys all over the place?
Given Abiamiri's injury and Parker being on the wrong side of 30, I wouldn't be shocked if Graham was starting mid-late season. Am I wearing my green-colored glasses?
Given Abiamiri's injury and Parker being on the wrong side of 30, I wouldn't be shocked if Graham was starting mid-late season. Am I wearing my green-colored glasses?
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Jene Bramel
Footballguy
Maybe a half tier difference, but they're both ahead of JP-P in my estimation and two very strong prospects. Both teams use a fairly heavy rotation. With the exception of Cole, I don't think any TEN or PHI defensive end is a favorite to top 75% of his team's snaps. I think Morgan projects a little better in run support than Graham does and that added solo tackle potential puts him just a hair higher for me. I think both players have DL1 pass rush capability. While Cole's presence certainly won't hurt Graham, I don't think it's critical to his long-term development either.
Anthony Borbely
Footballguy
Morgan has a better all around game and even though I have them ranked right next to each other, Morgan is maybe a half a tier ahead to me. Their close rankings are more of a reflection of what I consider to be a very weak draft class, especially at the upper end of the IDPs. I like Graham a lot long-term, but it's usually asking a lot for a rookie DE to start and put up big numbers. I think Graham is capable of double digit sacks in the future, but there probably will be a learning curve. I think Morgan will be a better two-way player and that usually translates to better fantasy numbers unless it is a big play league.
Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
Borbely,
Why are you so down on Cushing? The kid who played hurt all of last year (missed much of training camp off the start) and often times did not practice during the week in season, lead his team in tackles, he had 5 sacks, and 4 ints.
Cushing is an elite talent, and has a scheme that allows him to be successful. Now I know he is not an ILB, but to fall all the way to 26 on your LB ranking when last season as a rookie finished 3rd in fantasy scoring seems a little bit harsh.
Why are you so down on Cushing? The kid who played hurt all of last year (missed much of training camp off the start) and often times did not practice during the week in season, lead his team in tackles, he had 5 sacks, and 4 ints.
Cushing is an elite talent, and has a scheme that allows him to be successful. Now I know he is not an ILB, but to fall all the way to 26 on your LB ranking when last season as a rookie finished 3rd in fantasy scoring seems a little bit harsh.
Anthony Borbely
Footballguy
I expect Ryans to take at least 10 of his solos away this year. Ryans was banged up quite a bit last year and I think he easily sees over 100 solos. They have to come from somewhere. I think Cushing is talented, but I don't expect 87 solos any time soon with a healthy Ryans in the middle. I think 75-80 solos is realistic.I also don't see those huge big play numbers. His 5 sacks were the most (I think) of any 4-3 LB. His 4 picks were tops among all LBs. His 10 passes defended were the highest of all LBs. I don't see all of those monster numbers again, especially the coverage numbers, and that is reflected in my ranking. It's hard enough to see any one of those numbers that big let alone all 3 and I just don't see that happening again. I think he has talent, but I have to see more than one year to call him elite. The tier he is in is pretty big so that 26 ranking is actually pretty close to the end of the teens.
Anthony Borbely
Footballguy
Hopefully I'll have mine up by the weekend, time permitting.
Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
Thanks for the response.
gregjcross
Footballguy
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Thoughts on Angerer? I confess that I know nothing about the guy, never saw him play, but he was drafted in the 2nd round afterall, much higher than most of the other IDPs ranked here and he was drafted by a team that doesn't have a lot of young talent at his position. Just seems peculiar to me that Indianapolis would "burn" a high pick on a guy thats not going to produce.
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
He's interesting and a solid late round flyer or late 2010 pickup. I'm not yet convinced that he's a 2011 fit, though, at least in an IDP sense. Brackett was re-signed and locked in at MLB and Angerer will need to show he's a better every-down option than Session to keep the Colts from re-signing Session this offseason. For now, though the Colts are usually happy to turn over that WLB job to the next man up, I think Angerer is a little more likely to push Wheeler out at SLB.I'm not sure why he's at 36 on my list. He deserves better than that with his upside. I'll move him up at the next update.
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
You can check out the Bloom 100 for one look. I'm not sure there are any plans this year for the database to support that in our rankings this season, but I'll ask Doug about it.I think the general consensus is that McClain should be considered a top 15 overall linebacker prospect. In the majority of leagues, that means he's worth strong consideration after the top RB and WR prospects, somewhere in the 7-12 range.
mambomambo
Footballguy
Jene, any idea when DD will be available?
