Team Spotlights (1 Viewer)

Here are links to the Team Spotlight threads.

Arizona Cardinals

Atlanta Falcons

Baltimore Ravens

Buffalo Bills

Carolina Panthers

Chicago Bears

Cincinnati Bengals

Cleveland Browns

Dallas Cowboys

Denver Broncos

Detroit Lions

Green Bay Packers

Houston Texans

Indianapolis Colts

Jacksonville Jaguars

Kansas City Chiefs

Miami Dolphins

Minnesota Vikings

New England Patriots

New Orleans Saints

New York Giants

New York Jets

Oakland Raiders

Philadelphia Eagles

Pittsburgh Steelers

San Diego Chargers

San Francisco 49ers

Seattle Seahawks

St. Louis Rams

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tennessee Titans

Washington Redskins

great idea here, thanks MT!

Why did you release them all into the SP on the same day? Jason Wood doesn't unload all 150+ players the same day...kinda takes over the SP and the reality is not that many people will take the time and dilligence to acurately rate what these teams will do this year.

Sorry MT, just an off the cuff reaction.

But I like the idea of these

Ministry of Pain said:

Why did you release them all into the SP on the same day? Jason Wood doesn't unload all 150+ players the same day...kinda takes over the SP and the reality is not that many people will take the time and dilligence to acurately rate what these teams will do this year.

Click to expand...

I don't know. I just figured I'd put them all out there and let people read/comment according to their own schedules.These are different from the player spotlights because they won't be written up for the main site. And I did want to get all the team spotlights up before the player spotlights start appearing, so that the team spotlights could be used as a background reference for the player spotlights.

great idea...and what I asked about in a thread (that got no love) was to have someplace where we see all the additions and subtractions....I think this could be a great place for that....drafted, traded, released, etc.....one stop shopping for everything so we could see changes on offensive line, etc......

is this going to replace last year's Player Spotlight threads where everyone could debate/discuss/project individual players? or are those still to come?

karmarooster said:

is this going to replace last year's Player Spotlight threads where everyone could debate/discuss/project individual players? or are those still to come?

Click to expand...

No, those are still to come.

This is so awesome.

I like releasing them all on the same day. the content is more important than the impact on the shark pool.

Maurile, when will your projections be available in Projections Dominator?

gheemony said:

I like releasing them all on the same day. the content is more important than the impact on the shark pool.

Click to expand...

Let people fill 'em out at their pace.

Thanks Maurile! I may or may not agree with your projections, but I certainly appreciate the great effort put into this.

I asked this in the Redskins thread, but maybe it is best discussed here:

How did you go about getting your 944 offensive plays? Is total number of plays your starting point when making projections?

Click to expand...

Can you briefly explain how you go about team projections? I've done some for the Redskins the last couple years and I generally start with how many plays I think they'll run. Is that what you do? Is there a step before that?

dgreen said:

I asked this in the Redskins thread, but maybe it is best discussed here:

How did you go about getting your 944 offensive plays? Is total number of plays your starting point when making projections?

Click to expand...

Can you briefly explain how you go about team projections? I've done some for the Redskins the last couple years and I generally start with how many plays I think they'll run. Is that what you do? Is there a step before that?

Click to expand...

Brief explanation from a few years ago here. I've changed some things since then, but that's still a good overview.On my list of things to improve is the way I project total offensive plays (not including sacks). Right now, I do it based on a few regression analyses.

My formula for projected total plays is: 575 + 11 * (previous year's yards per carry) + 9.5% * (previous year's passing yards) - 46 * (previous year's yards per pass attempt) + 707 * (previous year's run%)

I also have formulas for projected rush attempts and for projected pass attempts; by totaling those, I get another measure of projected total plays. The two methods almost always end up being very close, within a few plays of each other, but I average the two methods to get my initial projection.

After that, I'm open to adjusting things by hand based on changes to scheme, etc., but I'm not that far along in my 2010 projections right now. Right now, total projected plays are all based on formulas.

Thanks for doing these. I always seek out your projections because you are the least generous with the yards/TDs and seem especially stingy with WRs. (I seem to remember that last year you only had two? receivers getting double-digit TDs.)

Would you care to elaborate on your methodology? I've noticed the "way too low" comment in a number of these threads and wonder if you're doing this to throw water on the hype/magical thinking or if these are the numbers you get for some other reason.

Cooley said:

Thanks for doing these. I always seek out your projections because you are the least generous with the yards/TDs and seem especially stingy with WRs. (I seem to remember that last year you only had two? receivers getting double-digit TDs.)Would you care to elaborate on your methodology? I've noticed the "way too low" comment in a number of these threads and wonder if you're doing this to throw water on the hype/magical thinking or if these are the numbers you get for some other reason.

Click to expand...

Yes, I do get the "way too low" comments for just about every team. It's April, and everybody's optimistic. Everybody thinks their team will be better than last year, or at least the same. Nobody thinks their team will be worse. In reality, though, about half the teams will be worse. And even though everybody thinks my current projections for their team are too low, about half of my projections will turn out to be too high.For league-wide totals, I'm currently projecting 14,231 rushes for 59,932 yards and 426 TDs compared to a mean over the last 7 years of 14,279 rushes for 59,085 yards and 427 TDs. I'm also currently projecting 16,820 pass attempts resulting in 10,321 receptions for 116,129 yards, 760 TDs, and 527 INTs, compared to a mean over the last 7 years of 16,615 pass attempts resulting in 9,990 receptions for 112,244 yards yards, 679 TDs, and 516 INTs.My projected distributions between WRs, RBs, and TEs (for receiving yards) are also in line with historical norms.So even though my projections look low across the board in the context of April optimism, they're really not.(I do have fewer individual players projected to put up elite numbers, but that's for a different reason. A projection is really a point within a range. If I project a WR to get 8 TDs, that means I'm really projecting, say, a 25% chance of 10 TDs or better, a 25% chance of 6 TDs or fewer, and so on. If I project 20 WRs to each get 8 TDs, it looks like I'm projecting all of them to get single-digit TDs, but in fact I'd be saying that about 5 of them should get double-digit TDs (since 25% of 20 is 5). Whenever there is uncertainty involved, actual results will end up looking more spread out than a reasonable set of projections.)

gheemony said:

Maurile, when will your projections be available in Projections Dominator?

Click to expand...

I don't know the answer to that. But I don't think it will be for at least a couple weeks.

Cooley said:

Thanks for doing these. I always seek out your projections because you are the least generous with the yards/TDs and seem especially stingy with WRs. (I seem to remember that last year you only had two? receivers getting double-digit TDs.)Would you care to elaborate on your methodology? I've noticed the "way too low" comment in a number of these threads and wonder if you're doing this to throw water on the hype/magical thinking or if these are the numbers you get for some other reason.

Click to expand...

IMO the "way too low" comments are exactly why Team Spotlights are useful in a different way than Player Spotlights. It's easy to project numbers that are too high for individual players when not considering context.Like in the Detroit Team Spotlight, Maurile projects fewer passing yards than last year, and a number of posters are protesting due to perceived improvements over last year... but they are ignoring that he is projecting fewer pass attempts and more rushing attempts and is actually projecting better passing performance.That is one form of context... the number of offensive plays and how they are distributed. And the other form is distributing those plays across the roster, which is a bit harder to do than just projecting the carries and/or targets for an individual.I love these threads. And I think they will make the Player Spotlight threads even better.

Maurile Tremblay said:

It's April, and everybody's optimistic. Everybody thinks their team will be better than last year, or at least the same. Nobody thinks their team will be worse. In reality, though, about half the teams will be worse.

Click to expand...

I'm going to tattoo this on my forehead . . . backwards . . . so I can read it in the mirror every day. Thanks again for the breakdown. It's a good reminder that there are only so many minutes in a game, only so many opportunities to score, and only so many touchdowns to go around.

Keep up the good work.