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Team Spotlight: Houston Texans (1 Viewer)

Maurile Tremblay

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See the pinned thread for links to each team spotlight.

I'll start off by posting my projections to get us going. The idea is for others to post their own projections as well, or to comment on the projections posted by others.

Overall

544 pass attempts for 353 receptions, 4044 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 18 interceptions; 435 rushes for 1751 yards and 13 touchdowns.

QB

Matt Schaub: 334 of 510 passing for 3826 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions; 48 rushes for 120 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Dan Orlovsky: 20 of 34 passing for 218 yards, 1 touchdowns, and 1 interceptions; 3 rushes for 12 yards and 0 touchdowns.

John David Booty: 0 of 0 passing for 0 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

RB

Steve Slaton: 75 rushes for 317 yards and 2 touchdowns; 27 receptions for 215 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Arian Foster: 94 rushes for 399 yards and 3 touchdowns; 13 receptions for 104 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Ben Tate: 112 rushes for 466 yards and 4 touchdowns; 17 receptions for 125 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Ryan Moats: 56 rushes for 230 yards and 2 touchdowns; 21 receptions for 154 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Jeremiah Johnson: 15 rushes for 62 yards and 0 touchdowns; 3 receptions for 25 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Chris Henry: 11 rushes for 46 yards and 0 touchdowns; 3 receptions for 20 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Vonta Leach: 11 rushes for 46 yards and 0 touchdowns; 3 receptions for 18 yards and 0 touchdowns.

WR

Andre Johnson: 97 receptions for 1298 yards and 7 touchdowns; 3 rushes for 16 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Kevin Walter: 37 receptions for 457 yards and 3 touchdowns; 2 rushes for 11 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Jacoby Jones: 39 receptions for 550 yards and 4 touchdowns; 4 rushes for 21 yards and 0 touchdowns.

David Anderson: 24 receptions for 279 yards and 2 touchdowns; 1 rushes for 5 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Andre Davis: 0 receptions for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Glenn Martinez: 0 receptions for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns; 0 rushes for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns.

TE

Owen Daniels: 62 receptions for 732 yards and 5 touchdowns.

Joel Dreessen: 3 receptions for 28 yards and 0 touchdowns.

James Casey: 2 receptions for 20 yards and 0 touchdowns.

Anthony Hill: 2 receptions for 20 yards and 0 touchdowns.

 
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Interesting projections. Any reason for the drop in production for Schaub? Also I think thats too many carries to the back half of the RB group. The team will only carry 4 tailbacks on the active roster so I personally don't expect Johnson and Henry to be there. Probably on the PS unless someone gets hurt. I think Moats will be the 4th back because he doesn't have any PS eligibility, but I don't think he'll see the field unless someone gets hurt. IF, and its a if right now, Slaton is fully recovered I think Tate and Slaton split alot of carries with Foster spelling. I like that you give Jacoby Jones more catches than Walter as I think they will use him alot more split out. I think they will cut Andre Davis this season to dump his contract and keep their new Project Dorin Dickerson on the roster and Martinez will also be hard pressed to get on the roster if they want to keep Holiday there as a return specialist. I like Owen Daniels yardage but I think he gets close to 10 TDs. He had 5 last year playing half the year.

 
Although I find your projections downright odd at times (such as Benson/Leonard and Stewart/Deangelo), I like that you are getting the ball rolling on these discussions.I'm not sure what's going to cause Schaub to fall so much. A slight regression is certainly not out of the realm of possibilities, but that's quite a drastic fall down.As a homer, I can tell you that, barring injuries, there will only be two running backs seeing time. Kubiak has always wanted to have two guys in there. When it was Slaton and Green, the games Green was actually available, he carried just about half the load. I expect we will see Slaton and Tate just about equally. Tate getting more carries, Slaton getting a lot of catches. That is, unless one is just way better than the other. Rick Smith has done quite well in the past, so I'm leaning towards siding w/him, but there seem to be a lot of dissenting opinions towards Tate. If he does bust then Slaton just might be the steal of the draft.As for the WR, I believe Kubiak was calling the plays back in 07 when AJ basically had 60/851/8 in 8 games (he got injured early in game 2). I'm not sure if this was just a result of catching teams off-guard since they were used to Carr dinking and dunking or if it was Kubiak's play calling. I think Kyle Shanahan called plays the last two years and AJ did well (115 & 101 rec) but didn't get as many TD/gm. I would not be surprised if this is the year AJ blows it up in the TD department. I certainly expect at least 110 receptions. Kubiak also really likes Kevin Walter's work ethic and blocking. I know Jacoby is popular in fantasy discussion, but my money is still on Kevin getting at least 60 receptions. But that being said, just because Kevin will get 60 doesn't mean Jacoby can't put up the 39 you predict. That's not a stretch considering he had 27 last year.So to sum up...Schaub closer to 375/550 4400 28/12 negligible rushing once againSlaton 150/600/4 50/500/2Tate 200/800/7 20/160/0AJ 110/1600/13Walter 65/800/6Daniels 70/800/6I don't think any other players will be worth noting, fantasy-wise. Predictions are wildly speculative, especially TDs. I won't be surprised if these get way off due to injury, but I'm pretty sure we won't see more than 2-3 rushes per game by anyone not deemed Kubiak's 1 or 2 guy. The only reasons Moats and Foster saw carries last year were Slaton's fumbles and injuries and Brown's lack of effectiveness. Unfortunately for fantasy, I don't think we'll ever see one back getting significantly more touches than the other.
Tate will be getting 2/3 to 3/4 of the carries this year. Slaton can move back to the role he is best suited for as a situational 3rd down back.
 
Would you like to actually see Tate run the ball against NFL defenses before we anoint him the 75% workload? I know I sure would. It is not like he was a high 1st rounder with an impeccable pedigree.

 
Walter caught 50+ balls in 14 games despite being hobbled by injury. He caught at least 60 the prior two years. Barring injury I can't see him catching less than 60 again this year (even if Jacoby Jones improves which is far from certain.)

 
Walter caught 50+ balls in 14 games despite being hobbled by injury. He caught at least 60 the prior two years. Barring injury I can't see him catching less than 60 again this year (even if Jacoby Jones improves which is far from certain.)
Jacoby looked pretty darn good at the end of the year, though I didn't see his every game and he seems to lack the confidence of the coaches. Does he have no shot of supplanting Walter? He's far more explosive but it seems like he doesn't do the little things well, which keeps Walter ahead of him.
 
Dorin Dickerson is missing ....

Rookie TE (6' 2" / 230lbs w/ 4.4 speed) drafted to be a WR....

:banned:

 
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Although I find your projections downright odd at times (such as Benson/Leonard and Stewart/Deangelo), I like that you are getting the ball rolling on these discussions.



I'm not sure what's going to cause Schaub to fall so much. A slight regression is certainly not out of the realm of possibilities, but that's quite a drastic fall down.

As a homer, I can tell you that, barring injuries, there will only be two running backs seeing time. Kubiak has always wanted to have two guys in there. When it was Slaton and Green, the games Green was actually available, he carried just about half the load. I expect we will see Slaton and Tate just about equally. Tate getting more carries, Slaton getting a lot of catches. That is, unless one is just way better than the other. Rick Smith has done quite well in the past, so I'm leaning towards siding w/him, but there seem to be a lot of dissenting opinions towards Tate. If he does bust then Slaton just might be the steal of the draft.

As for the WR, I believe Kubiak was calling the plays back in 07 when AJ basically had 60/851/8 in 8 games (he got injured early in game 2). I'm not sure if this was just a result of catching teams off-guard since they were used to Carr dinking and dunking or if it was Kubiak's play calling. I think Kyle Shanahan called plays the last two years and AJ did well (115 & 101 rec) but didn't get as many TD/gm. I would not be surprised if this is the year AJ blows it up in the TD department. I certainly expect at least 110 receptions. Kubiak also really likes Kevin Walter's work ethic and blocking. I know Jacoby is popular in fantasy discussion, but my money is still on Kevin getting at least 60 receptions. But that being said, just because Kevin will get 60 doesn't mean Jacoby can't put up the 39 you predict. That's not a stretch considering he had 27 last year.

So to sum up...

Schaub closer to 375/550 4400 28/12 negligible rushing once again

Slaton 150/600/4 50/500/2

Tate 200/800/7 20/160/0

AJ 110/1600/13

Walter 65/800/6

Daniels 70/800/6

I don't think any other players will be worth noting, fantasy-wise. Predictions are wildly speculative, especially TDs. I won't be surprised if these get way off due to injury, but I'm pretty sure we won't see more than 2-3 rushes per game by anyone not deemed Kubiak's 1 or 2 guy. The only reasons Moats and Foster saw carries last year were Slaton's fumbles and injuries and Brown's lack of effectiveness. Unfortunately for fantasy, I don't think we'll ever see one back getting significantly more touches than the other.
didn't you hear? schaub is fragile and is going to get hurt. everyone is banking on it. i'm not, but that's the only theory i can think of.

 
That would make sense in this case if Orlovsky was projected to get more than, at best, one full game's worth of action. I just don't get that projection, as it has Schaub--a QB who has improved each year so far, both in the NFL and in fantasy--throwing for .3 yards-per-attempt less than he ever has as a starter (and .7 yards-per-attempt less than last season). With AJ and Jones, that just doesn't seem likely to me.

I dunno if Schaub will do exactly what he did last year--I think the drafting of Tate does suggest a desire to run more--but I think you're looking at about 8-10% higher on all those stats (with fewer INTs) even if he only throws 510 passes. And I think he'll throw more.

 
I agree...Slatons talent is being underscored big time. The guy IMO is the best RB on their roster. He will play a big role in their success or failure.

Tate is not that special. It is the OL that needs to come through for either of them to have any success as last season they were a train wreck in the run blocking department. I like Slatons odd's of coming out of this RBBC with the better numbers for PPR FF purposes.

 
i understand the regression to the mean argument, but this is a 20% drop in yardage for schaub.... despite the fact that he has the best WR in the league, an emerging talent in Jones, a steady hand in Walter, and a trusted TE in daniels.

Kubiak is in the hot seat, and he's going to do everything he can to win and keep his job. that doesn't mean shuffling the ball around among a handful of mediocre running backs, it means force feeding the ball to AJ.

If schaub plays even 14 games this year, he'll throw for 4,000 yards.

 
Although I find your projections downright odd at times (such as Benson/Leonard and Stewart/Deangelo), I like that you are getting the ball rolling on these discussions.

I'm not sure what's going to cause Schaub to fall so much. A slight regression is certainly not out of the realm of possibilities, but that's quite a drastic fall down.

As a homer, I can tell you that, barring injuries, there will only be two running backs seeing time. Kubiak has always wanted to have two guys in there. When it was Slaton and Green, the games Green was actually available, he carried just about half the load. I expect we will see Slaton and Tate just about equally. Tate getting more carries, Slaton getting a lot of catches. That is, unless one is just way better than the other. Rick Smith has done quite well in the past, so I'm leaning towards siding w/him, but there seem to be a lot of dissenting opinions towards Tate. If he does bust then Slaton just might be the steal of the draft.

As for the WR, I believe Kubiak was calling the plays back in 07 when AJ basically had 60/851/8 in 8 games (he got injured early in game 2). I'm not sure if this was just a result of catching teams off-guard since they were used to Carr dinking and dunking or if it was Kubiak's play calling. I think Kyle Shanahan called plays the last two years and AJ did well (115 & 101 rec) but didn't get as many TD/gm. I would not be surprised if this is the year AJ blows it up in the TD department. I certainly expect at least 110 receptions. Kubiak also really likes Kevin Walter's work ethic and blocking. I know Jacoby is popular in fantasy discussion, but my money is still on Kevin getting at least 60 receptions. But that being said, just because Kevin will get 60 doesn't mean Jacoby can't put up the 39 you predict. That's not a stretch considering he had 27 last year.

So to sum up...

Schaub closer to 375/550 4400 28/12 negligible rushing once again

Slaton 150/600/4 50/500/2

Tate 200/800/7 20/160/0

AJ 110/1600/13

Walter 65/800/6

Daniels 70/800/6

I don't think any other players will be worth noting, fantasy-wise. Predictions are wildly speculative, especially TDs. I won't be surprised if these get way off due to injury, but I'm pretty sure we won't see more than 2-3 rushes per game by anyone not deemed Kubiak's 1 or 2 guy. The only reasons Moats and Foster saw carries last year were Slaton's fumbles and injuries and Brown's lack of effectiveness. Unfortunately for fantasy, I don't think we'll ever see one back getting significantly more touches than the other.
Tate will be getting 2/3 to 3/4 of the carries this year. Slaton can move back to the role he is best suited for as a situational 3rd down back.
The in-depth knowledge you display and convincing writing style really make me want to believe this, but seeing as how I've watched every game Kubiak has coached for Houston, I just find this hard to believe without having seen Tate run a play in our system...Kubiak was willing to give Ahman Green a fair amount of carries while Slaton was tearing it up. Kubiak likes to split the load. I'm not certain Tate is awesome and I don't think the running game was all of Slaton's fault last year. I think the less than perceived talent discrepancy between Tate and Slaton along with Kubiak's RBBC tendency will lead to a much more even split than most Tate hopefuls are expecting.
I feel this is correct. The only push the interior line got last year was backward.
 
Walter caught 50+ balls in 14 games despite being hobbled by injury. He caught at least 60 the prior two years. Barring injury I can't see him catching less than 60 again this year (even if Jacoby Jones improves which is far from certain.)
Jacoby looked pretty darn good at the end of the year, though I didn't see his every game and he seems to lack the confidence of the coaches. Does he have no shot of supplanting Walter? He's far more explosive but it seems like he doesn't do the little things well, which keeps Walter ahead of him.
-- Texans Still Looking for Jacoby Jones to Break Out --Wed Apr 28, 2010 --from FFMastermind.com#The Houston Chronicle reports despite re-signing WR Kevin Walter, the Texans' coaching staff is still hoping that WR Jacoby Jones can have a breakout year at wide receiver. Some of Jones' return duties are expected to be transferred to rookie WR Trindon Holliday so that Jones can focus on playing wideout.
 
Walter caught 50+ balls in 14 games despite being hobbled by injury. He caught at least 60 the prior two years. Barring injury I can't see him catching less than 60 again this year (even if Jacoby Jones improves which is far from certain.)
Jacoby looked pretty darn good at the end of the year, though I didn't see his every game and he seems to lack the confidence of the coaches. Does he have no shot of supplanting Walter? He's far more explosive but it seems like he doesn't do the little things well, which keeps Walter ahead of him.
-- Texans Still Looking for Jacoby Jones to Break Out --Wed Apr 28, 2010 --from FFMastermind.com#The Houston Chronicle reports despite re-signing WR Kevin Walter, the Texans' coaching staff is still hoping that WR Jacoby Jones can have a breakout year at wide receiver. Some of Jones' return duties are expected to be transferred to rookie WR Trindon Holliday so that Jones can focus on playing wideout.
I'd love to be wrong about him, but he was on the bubble of getting cut last preseason and there were rumors the Texans tried to trade him then too. Doesn't help he has a DWI under his belt either. They are taking away his return duties so hopefully that means he can focus on being a better WR, but "hoping" means little to me. More likely it means he'll be easier to cut if he doesn't show any improvement.
 
Walter caught 50+ balls in 14 games despite being hobbled by injury. He caught at least 60 the prior two years. Barring injury I can't see him catching less than 60 again this year (even if Jacoby Jones improves which is far from certain.)
Jacoby looked pretty darn good at the end of the year, though I didn't see his every game and he seems to lack the confidence of the coaches. Does he have no shot of supplanting Walter? He's far more explosive but it seems like he doesn't do the little things well, which keeps Walter ahead of him.
-- Texans Still Looking for Jacoby Jones to Break Out --Wed Apr 28, 2010 --from FFMastermind.com#The Houston Chronicle reports despite re-signing WR Kevin Walter, the Texans' coaching staff is still hoping that WR Jacoby Jones can have a breakout year at wide receiver. Some of Jones' return duties are expected to be transferred to rookie WR Trindon Holliday so that Jones can focus on playing wideout.
I'd love to be wrong about him, but he was on the bubble of getting cut last preseason and there were rumors the Texans tried to trade him then too. Doesn't help he has a DWI under his belt either. They are taking away his return duties so hopefully that means he can focus on being a better WR, but "hoping" means little to me. More likely it means he'll be easier to cut if he doesn't show any improvement.
I don't think there is any chance Jones gets cut.
 
This is a make or break year for Jones and I think he's going to get every chance to prove himself as the #2.

I think Andre Davis is getting cut though.

 
A small concern.....

The Texans offense is coming off one of their best offensive years. Will there be any let down with losing their offensive coordinator as Kyle Shanahan who did a good job last year calling plays will join his dad with the Redskins this year?

I know Kubiak is an offensive minded guy who actually learend from Mike Shanahan in denver is more then capable of running the offense but anyone know if he will be calling the plays or is someone else in line to call the plays?

 
its Kubiak's offense, there won't be a drop off. Kubiak called 2008, Kyle called 2009, it was basically the same. The only downfall now is Kubiak will have his hand in the offense so it takes away from his ability to step back and look at the big picture as the head coach. Hopefully Dennison gains his confidence with the play calling quickly.

 
Carter_Can_Fly said:
A small concern.....

The Texans offense is coming off one of their best offensive years. Will there be any let down with losing their offensive coordinator as Kyle Shanahan who did a good job last year calling plays will join his dad with the Redskins this year?

I know Kubiak is an offensive minded guy who actually learend from Mike Shanahan in denver is more then capable of running the offense but anyone know if he will be calling the plays or is someone else in line to call the plays?
It sounds like he wants a coordinator calling the plays. From a January 4th Kubiak press conference where he addressed losing Kyle Shanahan:
(on if he's looking for his next offensive coordinator to do the play-calling) "I want somebody with me that I'm comfortable with calling plays. I want that. That's important to me. Whoever I end up bringing in here, whoever I work with, I want to get them to the same point that I am with (offensive coordinator) Kyle (Shanahan) and that I was with the other guys, where I can say, ‘Hey, go ahead. If I don't like something, I'm going to jump in.' We have to be that close and on the same page. I think that's very, very important because that's the guy I deal with every day putting in game plans, calling the game and making adjustments during the game. That is important to me. It's very important to me."
 
its Kubiak's offense, there won't be a drop off. Kubiak called 2008, Kyle called 2009, it was basically the same. The only downfall now is Kubiak will have his hand in the offense so it takes away from his ability to step back and look at the big picture as the head coach. Hopefully Dennison gains his confidence with the play calling quickly.
I came across an interesting and potentially relevant Eric Winston quote about OC's in general when looking for the quote in the above post about play calling. From http://www.examiner.com/x-778-Houston-Texa...as-good-as-gone
Eric Winston seemed concerned about the change which would result in the fourth offensive coordinator in five seasons for the Texans.

"No matter if it's the same offense, [a new coordinator is] still going to want to do their own things," said Winston." They're still going to want to run a certain way; they're going to still want to have their own little passing routes. You can call it what you want to call it, but they're going to go in their direction. I know when Mike Sherman was here, we were doing a lot more man scheme. Shanahan is straight out of the Denver scheme and we were zoning people up, and I liked that a lot. That's something that I'm really interested in. I hope they get a guy that comes in and is willing to at least take a look at what we've been doing here and not really deviate from what we've done because it's hard to say it hasn't worked."
That said, I would think that Dennison is a guy who would be pretty close to what Kubiak and Kyle Shanahan did. Unless someone can point to something about the 2006-2008 Broncos that indicates Dennison has a different outlook in a significant area when he was play calling there.
 
not sure on the projection but my Texans drew a awful hard scheduele.

jesh, i fear a 7-9 season may be looming and with Kubes may be outsed.

I sure hope not....

 
(Rotoworld) Jacoby Jones is working with the first-team offense this week with Andre Johnson skipping out on OTAs.Analysis: This works out well for the Texans because Jones needs the work far more than Johnson. "I think everybody knows Jacoby has starter ability in the National Football League," coach Gary Kubiak said. "It's about consistency, and he's going to get a chance to show that right now. Business is about opportunity, and boy, is he getting one right now."
 
same ol' song and dance. Jacoby has always had the talent, its his mental game that is still a question mark. He'll get alot of looks but I dont think he will pass Walter until he does the things Walter does, run a crisp route, be great at blocking, and never drop balls.

 
FYI: Another tidbit, Jacoby Jones is a FA after this year so for those that believe in players excelling in contract years, there you go.

 

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