What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

Michael Turner, RB, Atlanta Falcons (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Michael Turner, RB, Atlanta Falcons

Player Page Link: Michael Turner Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or :pickle: ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
Turner very well may have topped his 17 td's from 2008 if he hadn't gotten hurt. And he was actually averaging more yards per carry. The Falcons made Jason Snelling look like a serviceable starting running back, and, not to knock Snelling, but he's not the talent that Turner is. The point is, this is a great offense for a RB. Word is that Turner's looking leaner and he's in better shape. The lack of receptions puts a bit of a ceiling on his value, especially in PPR leagues, and I don't think the Falcons will ride him as hard as they did in 2008, but I still think he'll have a great season:

290 rushes, 1,276 yards, 13 td's, 10 catches, 52 yards, 0 td's.

 
Turner very well may have topped his 17 td's from 2008 if he hadn't gotten hurt. And he was actually averaging more yards per carry. The Falcons made Jason Snelling look like a serviceable starting running back, and, not to knock Snelling, but he's not the talent that Turner is. The point is, this is a great offense for a RB. Word is that Turner's looking leaner and he's in better shape. The lack of receptions puts a bit of a ceiling on his value, especially in PPR leagues, and I don't think the Falcons will ride him as hard as they did in 2008, but I still think he'll have a great season:290 rushes, 1,276 yards, 13 td's, 10 catches, 52 yards, 0 td's.
Falcon's team is going to be better than it has been in a while so I see no reason for Turner not to match his TD total of 2008 - hell he had 10 TD's through 9 games last year! In an effort to preserve Turner's career, and to avoid further "curse of 370" talk, the Falcons will limit his carries to a range b/t 300-325 on the season. As always, he should catch around 15 passes, average around 4.5 yds. per carry, and blow up a game or two with a 3 TD performance.Prediction -320 carries, 1440 yards, 18 TD, 15 catches, 88 yards, 0 TD's - ::::League leader in rushing touchdowns::::
 
Yep, I don't see why Turner doesn't average ~4.5 yards per carry again this season and I'm sure he'll get ~300-325 carries. Atlanta ran it 451 times last season and Turner only played 9 games. So I see Turner somewhere in this range:

300 carries

1,350 yards

15 TDs

325 carries

1,475 yards

17 TDs

 
This guy is your early round "sleeper". The majority are talking about Rice, ADP, CJ and MJD as the top 4 (and no arguement about that), but not only could Turner crack that group, he is rarely spoken about in the next tier including S-Jax and Gore. While he did have a massive amount of carries in '08, he was looking fresh until his injury in '09 and with that "time off", coupled with the fact that he got little use during his time in San Diego, he is a young 28 year old in regards to RBs.

From a fantasy drafting perspective, he is gold. In a 12 team league you could arguably get him at the 8-9 spot and still nab an elite receiver at the turn. Very rarely can you take such an impactful player at that spot and couple him with another elite player.

280 carries, 4.5 yards/carry, 1260 yards rushing, 15 TDs; 9 catches, 60 yards, 1TD

 
Nabbed him in the mid 3rd in my startup 16 team IDP PPR dynasty league (39th overall) (11the RB taken)

in 2008 he finished RB2

in 2009 after week 9 he was RB6

He had 10TD's in 9 games before he began battling injuries.

I think he poses excellent value this year.

ATL has a good young core and Turner is still 28 and should be at top his game this year, and next year he will still be 29 before he hist the dreaded 30 years old.

286 carries

4.7

1344 yards

13 TD's

6 rec

44yds

0 TDs

 
I very much avoided Turner last year as he went consistently in the top 3, even in PPR leagues. This year he might fall enough to make him a better value in the later first round - current ADP between 1.05 and 1.09.

310 rushes, 1,426 yards (4.6 YPC), 14 TDs, 8 receptions, 50 yards

 
I very much avoided Turner last year as he went consistently in the top 3, even in PPR leagues. This year he might fall enough to make him a better value in the later first round - current ADP between 1.05 and 1.09.310 rushes, 1,426 yards (4.6 YPC), 14 TDs, 8 receptions, 50 yards
:unsure: great post! was way overrated last season,and drafted highly because of it...the $$ was on him slipping , and he did..this year, he's almost completely undervalued,almost forgotten,making him a big time sleeper.315/1449/13I do think Snelling takes on more work at the goal line..
 
I really like Atlanta this season. They showed plenty of heart last year battling through injuries. For the first time in their franchise's history, they finished with a winning record two years in a row. Ryan is changing the culture in Atlanta to a winning one. If Ryan is the driver of this car then Turner is the engine that makes it go. Atlanta may want to lighten his carry load during the season but there will be too many opportunities for them to preserve victories by running the ball late and for that they will want their best runner on the field in the 4th quarter.

Projections: 319car/1470/14 7rec/50/0 for a PPR ranking of RB8

 
His lack of catches is the only thing keeping him out of the elite RB tier. That said, I don't think he's undervalued at all where he's going - mid to late rd 1. Getting only 10-15 catches instead of 40-60 like the other feature backs really hurts.

 
Michael Turner is the poster child for the 370 club rule. Throughout his five year career (to that point) he was lightly used and ready for the heavy load. In his first season is Atlanta he had 377 carries for 1699 yards (4.5 ypc) and 17 TDs. The injury struck him last season and the 370 carry theorists felt vindicated.

Now, in the year after, there is cause for optimism again. It is only May and he is practicing fully and apparently injury free and in great condition. Turner will definitely present a conundrum to those drafting in PPR leagues at the bottom of the first round. He will definitely be the bell cow for the Falcons and should garner around 20 carries per game. However, he has only 22 career receptions in six seasons.

Michael Turner 16 gms 330 carries 1518 yards 4.6 ypc 16 targets 12 catches 84 yards and 16 total TDs

 
I personally feel that Turner is that rarest of animals- a player who is being properly valued.

His 2008 campaign was very nice but the #2 ranking at the end of the year was somewhat misleading due to it being a down year for elite backs in general. In 2009 his 2008 season would have been 4th, 2007 3rd, 2006 5th, 2005 t-5th, 2004 5th, 2003 t-6th. I think there are quite a few reasons to view 2008 as a very nice ceiling- one that he may be able to top by 10 pts or so but not much more. He is very unlikely to get more than 376 carries and with 11 receptions in > 1.5 years in Atlanta we know he isn't going to supplement his rushing yards with receiving ones. He could improve on his 17 TDs, but large improvement is unlikely and with Snelling having the build for a goaline back it wouldn't be a shock to see him worked in there a few times this year after Turner carries the Falcons inside the 10.

Realistically a healthy Turner will break 300 carries (he is to good not to) but loses 3rd down looks to both Snelling (who caught 30 balls last year) and Norwood and could potentially lose some GL touches.

325/1527/18- 4.7 y/c + 40 yards receiving and he only cracks the top 4 if there are significant injuries or he has a historically good TD year (22+).

 
I personally feel that Turner is that rarest of animals- a player who is being properly valued. His 2008 campaign was very nice but the #2 ranking at the end of the year was somewhat misleading due to it being a down year for elite backs in general. In 2009 his 2008 season would have been 4th, 2007 3rd, 2006 5th, 2005 t-5th, 2004 5th, 2003 t-6th. I think there are quite a few reasons to view 2008 as a very nice ceiling- one that he may be able to top by 10 pts or so but not much more. He is very unlikely to get more than 376 carries and with 11 receptions in > 1.5 years in Atlanta we know he isn't going to supplement his rushing yards with receiving ones. He could improve on his 17 TDs, but large improvement is unlikely and with Snelling having the build for a goaline back it wouldn't be a shock to see him worked in there a few times this year after Turner carries the Falcons inside the 10. Realistically a healthy Turner will break 300 carries (he is to good not to) but loses 3rd down looks to both Snelling (who caught 30 balls last year) and Norwood and could potentially lose some GL touches.325/1527/18- 4.7 y/c + 40 yards receiving and he only cracks the top 4 if there are significant injuries or he has a historically good TD year (22+).
I doubt Turner would ever lose GL touches, he might be the best GL runner in the league right now...a top 3 for sure anyways.
 
I personally feel that Turner is that rarest of animals- a player who is being properly valued. His 2008 campaign was very nice but the #2 ranking at the end of the year was somewhat misleading due to it being a down year for elite backs in general. In 2009 his 2008 season would have been 4th, 2007 3rd, 2006 5th, 2005 t-5th, 2004 5th, 2003 t-6th. I think there are quite a few reasons to view 2008 as a very nice ceiling- one that he may be able to top by 10 pts or so but not much more. He is very unlikely to get more than 376 carries and with 11 receptions in > 1.5 years in Atlanta we know he isn't going to supplement his rushing yards with receiving ones. He could improve on his 17 TDs, but large improvement is unlikely and with Snelling having the build for a goaline back it wouldn't be a shock to see him worked in there a few times this year after Turner carries the Falcons inside the 10. Realistically a healthy Turner will break 300 carries (he is to good not to) but loses 3rd down looks to both Snelling (who caught 30 balls last year) and Norwood and could potentially lose some GL touches.325/1527/18- 4.7 y/c + 40 yards receiving and he only cracks the top 4 if there are significant injuries or he has a historically good TD year (22+).
I doubt Turner would ever lose GL touches, he might be the best GL runner in the league right now...a top 3 for sure anyways.
I don't disagree about his GL abilities, the question I ask myself is this- is there a larger drop off from Turner to Snelling between the 20s or inside the 10? When I answer that question I generally feel like the drop off between the 20s is larger. Snelling has the build and power to be a goal line back but not the speed of Turner, and since I am projecting that Atl will cut down on Turner's carries to some extent due to being banged up last year + Snellings solid play in filling in I think the more logical place would be weighted toward goal line opportunities- particularly the ones where Turner has played a large role in getting them near the goal line on that drive.
 
Reported on Rotoworld...

The Falcons are increasing their no-huddle repertoire from 10-12 plays to about 30.

Matt Ryan has a better handle on the offense, can better read opposing defenses, and now knows when to attack, so the Falcons are giving him more responsibility. Somewhat of a post-hype candidate this season, Ryan is a good bet to increase his numbers across the board.

Source: Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Any Atlanta Homer's out there? When Ryan operates from this No Huddle offense, does that mean that Jerious Norwood will exclusively be on the field due to his pass catching ability? Something to think about for Turner owners as it may slightly cut into the amount of time he is on the field.

 
I'm pretty bullish on the Atlanta offense as a whole this year. Turner stumbled a bit out of the gates last year, but before he went down with the dreaded high ankle sprain he was running as well or better than he did in 2008. I expect Ryan to progress this year; combine that with what appears to be a concerted effort to keep Turner's carries down a bit, I expect him to be around the 325 carry mark, which is more than enough for Turner to produce with.

I see little reason (barring injury, of course) to not view Turner as a rock-solid RB1 this year.

323 carries, 1,452 yards (4.5 YPC), 14 TD's

 
Any news/notes on the Burner over the last month? I'm staring at him at 1.08 in one of my leagues - he seems extremely safe if not sexy.

 
I see Turner going for 1000 and 9tds.... That's if he does not get hurt
That's about the lowest projects I have seen for him...very close to the numbers he had last year while missing 5 games. Any specific reason why you are down on him.?
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Any news/notes on the Burner over the last month? I'm staring at him at 1.08 in one of my leagues - he seems extremely safe if not sexy.
I may be a homer, but there's no way I pass on Turner at the spot, PPR or not. He is running in mid-season form and should be a beast.
 
I just took Turner at the 7th spot, at my draft over the weekend, (grant it Ray Rice) was kept, so realistically he would of been the 8th overall pick. I loved him falling to me at this spot. Johnson, Peterson, MJD, Gore, Brees, and Rodgers (start 2 QB league) were gone. It was down to Turner, Jackson and Andre...but decided to go with Turner.

I expect 325 carries, 1475 Yds, 15 TD's, 10 rec, 1 TD.

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top