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LeSean McCoy, RB, Philadelphia Eagles (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: LeSean McCoy, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

Player Page Link: LeSean McCoy Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

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[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

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While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
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Leaves much to be desired running in the tackles, Mike Bell & Leonard Weaver take a nice chuck out of his value & he gets pulled at the goalline.

175 rushes

700 yards

4 TD

35 catches

200 yards

1 TD

 
Love his situation, but don't think he can be an effective every down guy just yet. People forget that before Brian Westbrook was rattling off 1,200+ rushing seasons, he was a guy who would give you around 1,200 -- 1,500 total yards and 8-10 td's, and that's about what I envision from McCoy:

185 rushes, 814 yards, 5 td's, 49 catches, 410 yards, 3 td's

 
I see a very nice year from McCoy

240 carries 1,150 yards 7 tds ,60 catches 480 yards 2 tds

I love this kid he has a great shot this year to break out big time.

 
Love his situation, but don't think he can be an effective every down guy just yet. People forget that before Brian Westbrook was rattling off 1,200+ rushing seasons, he was a guy who would give you around 1,200 -- 1,500 total yards and 8-10 td's, and that's about what I envision from McCoy:

185 rushes, 814 yards, 5 td's, 49 catches, 410 yards, 3 td's
Andy Reid has shown that when his main back is healthy he will get in b/t 225-290 rushing attempts for the season. Westbrook rarely stayed healthy more than 12 games per year but when he did he always put up monster stats both rushing and receiving. McCoy has shown to be more durable thus far in his career, playing in all 16 games last year, so my prediction for him is based on participation throughout the season as the #1 back. With Kolb at the helm, the Eagles are going to rely more on the short passing game, so I see McCoy battling Ray Rice for league leader in receptions.McCoy 2010 stat bold prediction

225 rushes, 935 yards, 6 TD's, 76 catches, 625 yards, 4 TD's. - (PPR Beast)

 
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Love his situation, but don't think he can be an effective every down guy just yet. People forget that before Brian Westbrook was rattling off 1,200+ rushing seasons, he was a guy who would give you around 1,200 -- 1,500 total yards and 8-10 td's, and that's about what I envision from McCoy:

185 rushes, 814 yards, 5 td's, 49 catches, 410 yards, 3 td's
Andy Reid has shown that when his main back is healthy he will get in b/t 225-290 rushing attempts for the season. Westbrook rarely stayed healthy more than 12 games per year but when he did he always put up monster stats both rushing and receiving. McCoy has shown to be more durable thus far in his career, playing in all 16 games last year, so my prediction for him is based on participation throughout the season as the #1 back. With Kolb at the helm, the Eagles are going to rely more on the short passing game, so I see McCoy battling Ray Rice for league leader in receptions.McCoy 2010 stat bold prediction

225 rushes, 935 yards, 6 TD's, 76 catches, 625 yards, 4 TD's. - (PPR Beast)
Reid ran Westbrook 177 and 156 times in his first two full seasons as starter. I expect that he'll bring McCoy along slowly in that regard, as well.
 
185 rushes, 750 yards, 5 TDs 60 rec. 400 yards. 4 TDs.

Think he'll have a good year, but Reid will keep his carries his down. Mike Bell will steal some carries and the GL carries. His schedule isn't good, I expect about 4 yards per carry.

 
The heir-apparent to Westbrook didn't seem to light it up last year when he had his opportunity. In fact, Weaver seemed to get a good amount of touches while Westbrook was out. This season Philadelphia brings in Bell to steal touches. I don't think Reid is ready to lean on McCoy like he did with Westbrook. From some of these earlier projections, it looks like he'll be gone long before I would be willing to draft him.

Projection: 169car/725/5 44rec/315/1 for a PPR ranking of RB24

 
Don't understand some of these predictions. The rookie averaged 4.1 ypc last year and had SIXTY RECEPTIONS IN A PART TIME ROLE.

I do think he'll give up a decent number of carries to Bell and Weaver, but I see no reason why his receptions would go down. I see something like 200 carries for 840 yards, 65 receptions for another 450 yards. 7 or 8 TD's will make him a terrific PPR play.

 
I don't see why an increase to 200+ carries and 60 receptions isn't realisic = his stat's when given 20+ carries looks solid, only 1 fumble ......

Rushing Receiving

Season Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD Tgt

2009 155 637 4 40 308 55

 
Don't understand some of these predictions. The rookie averaged 4.1 ypc last year and had SIXTY RECEPTIONS IN A PART TIME ROLE.

I do think he'll give up a decent number of carries to Bell and Weaver, but I see no reason why his receptions would go down. I see something like 200 carries for 840 yards, 65 receptions for another 450 yards. 7 or 8 TD's will make him a terrific PPR play.
okay, so he had 40 receptions, not 60. that's still pretty good, and i think these numbers are realistic/conservative. he was a rookie who had 940 total yds, 4 TDs and 40 catches. since when is that bad production for a rookie stepping into a passing offense and having to learn all the complexities that go with it? it's easy to see another 25 receptions, 350 more yds, and 3-4 TDs added onto that. personally, i will be surprised if shady isn't a top 12 PPR RB in 2011, and i think it COULD happen sooner than that.

and no offense to mike bell but he has 26 career receptions in 4 years and only had 5 TDs in 09 and averaged 3.8 YPC. why does anyone think he is a threat? $1.7 million is not the kind of money a guy gets when he is in demand.

i'm not saying anyone has to drink the shady kool-aid, but it's pretty obvious he'll be given every possible opportunity to succeed because no one else on their roster fits the offense.

 
I don't see why an increase to 200+ carries and 60 receptions isn't realisic = his stat's when given 20+ carries looks solid, only 1 fumble ......
Agreed. Projecting him for 45 more carries and 20 more catches is being conservative. Pretty safe player this year in PPR leagues - floor of 1,200 combined (800/400) with 50 grabs, sprinkle in 5 TDs and you are already at 200 PPR, good for RB18 last season. Again, this is being conservative. McCoy will be a great RB2 pickup at the 3rd/4th turn.
 
Wow. These are some very conservative predictions. Everyone does know he is the unquestioned starter and Westbrook is gone, right?

Players take the biggest jump from their first to second season, and despite being a very young rookie, McCoy looked very solid in a very complicated offense. When things start to slow down, he will be pretty darn good and get a LOT more opportunities this season than he did last season. The only serious hit to his value will be Weaver/Bell stealing goal line scores.

240 carries for 1054 yards (4.4 YPC)

55 receptions for 600 yards

8 combined TDs

He is going to be very good, and this thread proves his real value is much higher than his perceived value.

 
Wow. These are some very conservative predictions. Everyone does know he is the unquestioned starter and Westbrook is gone, right?

Players take the biggest jump from their first to second season, and despite being a very young rookie, McCoy looked very solid in a very complicated offense. When things start to slow down, he will be pretty darn good and get a LOT more opportunities this season than he did last season. The only serious hit to his value will be Weaver/Bell stealing goal line scores.

240 carries for 1054 yards (4.4 YPC)

55 receptions for 600 yards

8 combined TDs

He is going to be very good, and this thread proves his real value is much higher than his perceived value.
I think it has to do with the fact that PHI's RBs only had about 300 carries last year and about 355 each of the two previous years. So if you are projecting 240 carries for McCoy, then what are you leaving for Mike Bell, Weaver and maybe C Scott? I'm not saying McCoy won't get 240 carries, he very well could, but I think maybe what I have written above gives a little context to the projected number of carries for McCoy by others being noticeably lower than yours.

 
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Wow. These are some very conservative predictions. Everyone does know he is the unquestioned starter and Westbrook is gone, right?Players take the biggest jump from their first to second season, and despite being a very young rookie, McCoy looked very solid in a very complicated offense. When things start to slow down, he will be pretty darn good and get a LOT more opportunities this season than he did last season. The only serious hit to his value will be Weaver/Bell stealing goal line scores.240 carries for 1054 yards (4.4 YPC)55 receptions for 600 yards8 combined TDsHe is going to be very good, and this thread proves his real value is much higher than his perceived value.
yup, good RB2 in all formats.
 
Yeah the guy has undeniable talent. But how can you project 240 carries in that offense? Westbrook has topped that twice in his carrer in Philly. And now they have Bell and Weaver as well. He will produce per touch yes, but how many touches will he get. That is the question.

 
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I think that there is some confusion about McCoy's projections for 2010. Broad general statements about his success and the fact that Westbrook is gone foster the higher numbers while others remain less optimistic.

I think that it is good to note that Westbrook only played in eight games last year and only had double digit carries on weeks one and two. I think that the folks counting on McCoy to pick up all of Westbrook's load will be surprised that was almost the case a year ago.

There was also a substantial rookie wall effect for McCoy last year. Consider the following:

First eleven games McCoy 123 rushes for 528 yards 4.29 ypc

Last 6 games including playoffs 37 carries for 129 yards 3.49 ypc

The receptions stayed fairly steady over the course of the season, but the number of rushing attempts and the yards per carry fell off severely at the end of the season. In fact, down the stretch Leonard Weaver had close to the same number of carries.

When realizing the lack of impact that Westbrook had in 09 and also considering that the Eagles added Mike Bell, a hard working guy capable of doing the tough running that some question McCoy's effectiveness in running up the middle, I see some valid concerns that could limit the opportunities for McCoy to improve greatly on his rookie season efforts. The key to his value in my opinion will be where his ADP winds up. Currently, he is going as RB 18 and 41 overall, in the same area as Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith (Car), Addai, and Ryan Mathews. I don't see myself grabbing him over any of those options.

LeSean McCoy 16 gms 170 carries 714 yards 4.2 ypc 55 targets 44 receptions 352 yards 8.0 ypc and 4 TDs

 
Is it just me or was anyone else not impressed with his running style? Just because he's replacing Westbrook in scheme doesn't make him Westbrook in his prime.

 
Yeah the guy has undeniable talent. But how can you project 240 carries in that offense? Westbrook has topped that twice in his carrer in Philly. And now they have Bell and Weaver as well. He will produce per touch yes, but how many touches will he get. That is the question.
For whatever reason, for good or bad, Reid has done two things as a HC over the years. 1. Barely ran the ball when McNabb was at the helm2. Ran the ball a lot more when McNabb was not at the helm.With kolb being eased in as the starter, I think you will see this offense put out a much more balanced attack and will IMO have a higher rushing attempt number at the end of the season than they have had over the past decade. Only time will tell, but I would be very surprised if McCoy gets <225 carries and could see him getting as much as 250. That averages out to approx. 15 carries a game and he has done well with that much of a workload. Factor in that he could very well be getting much more done in the receiving dept due to dump offs from Kolb (who by the way, is better at hitting guys in stride than mcNabb) and you've got a RB with a very high ceiling that is still very under-valued. Get him while hes cheap!
 
LeSean McCoy 16 gms 170 carries 714 yards 4.2 ypc 55 targets 44 receptions 352 yards 8.0 ypc and 4 TDs
rzrback77 so basically you're forecasting that he'll get 15 more total carrier and 15 more recpetions this season. Really? Only 1 more carry per game, and 1 more receptions per game?really?
 
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Adding Westbrook's touches to McCoy's from last year would be 211 carries and 65 receptions. Realistically McCoy is not going to get all of Westbrook's touches with Weaver and now Bell in the mix. So the best hope for more touches is Philly deciding to run the ball more and maybe that is what should be projected here in addition to McCoy's numbers.

 
LeSean McCoy 16 gms 170 carries 714 yards 4.2 ypc 55 targets 44 receptions 352 yards 8.0 ypc and 4 TDs
rzrback77 so basically you're forecasting that he'll get 15 more total carrier and 15 more recpetions this season. Really? Only 1 more carry per game, and 1 more receptions per game?really?
Yes and yes. I provided my reasoning for the number of carries in the original post, but essentially Westbrook was not featured much last year and toward the end of the season, Leonard Weaver was getting close to the same number of carries as McCoy. I think that the Eagles will limit the rushing opportunities for McCoy by having Bell and Weaver as active as Westbrook and Weaver were a year ago and possibly even more active.
 
Is it just me or was anyone else not impressed with his running style? Just because he's replacing Westbrook in scheme doesn't make him Westbrook in his prime.
sell high of the offseason IMOHe was underwhelming running the football to say the least in the tackles. I project Weaver/Bell to have in upwards of 200 carries. McCoy unquestionably will catch a bunch of passes (so he'll have nice PPR value)
 
Yeah the guy has undeniable talent. But how can you project 240 carries in that offense? Westbrook has topped that twice in his carrer in Philly. And now they have Bell and Weaver as well. He will produce per touch yes, but how many touches will he get. That is the question.
Why r ppl acting lime bell and weaver are so special. Bell had erratic success in the leagues best passing and overall offense. Weaver has never had much success at all. Were talking about two journeyman backups here.
 
In the ten games after Westbrook got hurt last year, McCoy got 94 carries and Weaver 66, or about a 60/40 split. What indication is there that says McCoy's going to get more than 60% of the carries in 2010? Seems like the Eagles like Weaver - I'm not sure why, but they seemed pretty consistent about keeping him involved lst year after the Skins gme when Westbrook went down.

I think that makes McCoy due for about 200 carries, unless the offense changes pretty dramatically.

Agree he's a good receiver, should get 50 catches or more.

Projection: 200 carries / 850 yards / 4 TDs / 50 receptions / 400 yards / 1 TD

 
Yeah the guy has undeniable talent. But how can you project 240 carries in that offense? Westbrook has topped that twice in his carrer in Philly. And now they have Bell and Weaver as well. He will produce per touch yes, but how many touches will he get. That is the question.
Why r ppl acting lime bell and weaver are so special. Bell had erratic success in the leagues best passing and overall offense. Weaver has never had much success at all. Were talking about two journeyman backups here.
Well the Super Bowl champions gave Bell 172 carries in the regular season, so he must have some talent. Weaver got 70 carries last season, and I see that staying pretty much the same. McCoy will be spelled by these two early and often.
 
Yeah the guy has undeniable talent. But how can you project 240 carries in that offense? Westbrook has topped that twice in his carrer in Philly. And now they have Bell and Weaver as well. He will produce per touch yes, but how many touches will he get. That is the question.
Did the coaching staff hold Westy back from having more carries or did injury hold him back? And I love all the talk about how he didn't impress last year. 4.1 YPC as a rookie getting 155 carries and catching 40 balls. He only got 4 starts but did really well whenever he got the ball.

And he got better the more carries he got. Take the games he had more than 10 carries and he had 95 carries for 432 yards for a 4.5 YPC.

I'm saying he'll be a good back in standard leagues and great in PPR's.

1400 total yards with 65 catches and 6 TD's.

I don't think he will have a ton of TD's as Bell is pretty good around the goal line if he can hold onto the ball. These numbers would put him at 13th at RB last year in non PPR. I don't have the PPR stats in front of me...

 
There was also a substantial rookie wall effect for McCoy last year. Consider the following:First eleven games McCoy 123 rushes for 528 yards 4.29 ypc Last 6 games including playoffs 37 carries for 129 yards 3.49 ypc
Interesting statistic and seems pretty sound except when you look at Weaver at the same time. First 11 games Weaver had 31 rushes for 209 yards and a 6.74 YPC.Last 6 games including the playoffs he had 43 carries for 133 yards and a 3.09 YPC.Westbrook had a similar drop off but admittedly missed a lot of time so I don't know how much stock can be placed in these numbers. He had 47 carries for 225 yards and a 4.78YPC through week 10 and then missed the next 5 games. The last two games of the season he had 14 carries for 49 yards and a 3.5 YPC. Was there an injury on the O-Line that I'm not aware of after week 11 otherwise every RB on the team hit the rookie wall along with McCoy as nobody ran well after week 11.
 
Yeah the guy has undeniable talent. But how can you project 240 carries in that offense? Westbrook has topped that twice in his carrer in Philly. And now they have Bell and Weaver as well. He will produce per touch yes, but how many touches will he get. That is the question.
Did the coaching staff hold Westy back from having more carries or did injury hold him back? And I love all the talk about how he didn't impress last year. 4.1 YPC as a rookie getting 155 carries and catching 40 balls. He only got 4 starts but did really well whenever he got the ball.

And he got better the more carries he got. Take the games he had more than 10 carries and he had 95 carries for 432 yards for a 4.5 YPC.

I'm saying he'll be a good back in standard leagues and great in PPR's.

1400 total yards with 65 catches and 6 TD's.

I don't think he will have a ton of TD's as Bell is pretty good around the goal line if he can hold onto the ball. These numbers would put him at 13th at RB last year in non PPR. I don't have the PPR stats in front of me...
In my PPR league that equates to 241 points or top 8 RB

 
aren't pass catching RB's normally either the every down back (like SJAx) or just a 3rd down reliever type back ?

if ya'll are projecting such low carries for McCoy, I think you're reducing him to 3rd down type duties and I was under the impression this was his starting RB gig to go with and IF it is? then he's an every down back between the 20's maybe, using Bell/Weaver as goal line which would mean a good number of carries and receptions

where is that thinking flawed ?

 
Yeah the guy has undeniable talent. But how can you project 240 carries in that offense? Westbrook has topped that twice in his carrer in Philly. And now they have Bell and Weaver as well. He will produce per touch yes, but how many touches will he get. That is the question.
Did the coaching staff hold Westy back from having more carries or did injury hold him back? And I love all the talk about how he didn't impress last year. 4.1 YPC as a rookie getting 155 carries and catching 40 balls. He only got 4 starts but did really well whenever he got the ball.

And he got better the more carries he got. Take the games he had more than 10 carries and he had 95 carries for 432 yards for a 4.5 YPC.

I'm saying he'll be a good back in standard leagues and great in PPR's.

1400 total yards with 65 catches and 6 TD's.

I don't think he will have a ton of TD's as Bell is pretty good around the goal line if he can hold onto the ball. These numbers would put him at 13th at RB last year in non PPR. I don't have the PPR stats in front of me...
In my PPR league that equates to 241 points or top 8 RB
That sounds about right...
 
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With all the changes in Philadelphia, this is a tough read on McCoy. In a situation like this, you have to go with your gut and mine is telling me he's good but not great. I don't think Philadelphia did a very good job of run blocking last year and if their new young QB doesn't hold up his end of the bargain, it could be a very tough year for Rb's in Philadelphia.

The starting RB's on Philadelphia have done well in PPR formats so we'll go along with that theme but I'm going to temper that too a bit because of a new QB and starting RB. You throw in this guy doesn't look to be their goaline back, I more than likely won't have LeSean McCoy on any of my fantasy teams this year because I can assure you there will be at least 1 or 2 guys in every draft I'm in that will like him a little more than I do.

750 yards rushing with 3 td's rushing

40 receptions for 302 yards 2 td's

 
Love his situation, but don't think he can be an effective every down guy just yet. People forget that before Brian Westbrook was rattling off 1,200+ rushing seasons, he was a guy who would give you around 1,200 -- 1,500 total yards and 8-10 td's, and that's about what I envision from McCoy:

185 rushes, 814 yards, 5 td's, 49 catches, 410 yards, 3 td's
Andy Reid has shown that when his main back is healthy he will get in b/t 225-290 rushing attempts for the season. Westbrook rarely stayed healthy more than 12 games per year but when he did he always put up monster stats both rushing and receiving. McCoy has shown to be more durable thus far in his career, playing in all 16 games last year, so my prediction for him is based on participation throughout the season as the #1 back. With Kolb at the helm, the Eagles are going to rely more on the short passing game, so I see McCoy battling Ray Rice for league leader in receptions.McCoy 2010 stat bold prediction

225 rushes, 935 yards, 6 TD's, 76 catches, 625 yards, 4 TD's. - (PPR Beast)
Reid ran Westbrook 177 and 156 times in his first two full seasons as starter. I expect that he'll bring McCoy along slowly in that regard, as well.
The key word here is healthy. In those two years, 2004 and 2005, Westbrook didn't play a full season.2004 - 13 games, 177 carries.... projected to 16 games = 218 carries

2005 - 12 games, 156 carries.... projected to 16 gmaes = 208 carries

in 2006 thru 2008, Westbrook went over 230 carries while missing a game or two each year.

Leonard and Bell are similar players; they will take carries away from each other, not from McCoy - mainly short yardage and goal line stuff.

LeSean McCoy 2010: 210 carries, 4.2 ypc, 882 yards, 6 TDs, 50 receptions, 400 yards, 2 TDs

226 points in PPR, about RB12 last year. At his current ADP of RB18 he's a decent value. I see a pretty high floor bc of the Reid system that throws to the RB often, but not a very high ceiling for a few reasons:

1) not many TDs due to Bell and Weaver

2) not so many carries and only an average YPC

3) He won't see as many targets as Westbrook did in his glory years because the offense has more weapons at WR and TE than the did back then. Kolb loves to throw to Celek, and will work to get the ball to Maclin and Jackson. As such I see 60-90 receptions highly unlikely.

 
SELL HIGH in dynasty. I told everyone to sell high on Bush three years ago, and I see the same thing with Shady, only to a smaller degree and with less pomp.

He's not a great runner. He's not even a GOOD runner at the NFL level. His DVOA rank was 36th among RBs last year. He was 26th in success rate (which measures how effective a guy is keeping drives alive basically). Obviously, that's awful.

And it's not really that surprising. I know measurables aren't everything, but his were some of the worst I've ever seen for a guy drafted where he was. He had a 29" vert and an 8'11" broad (at his PRO DAY). He really just doesn't have the elite explosion you expect for a guy as small as he is. And that DOES seem to be translating on the field. He had one run longer than 20 yards all year long (same as Leonard Weaver). Lightning quick Mike Bell (yes, that is sarcasm) had four. Obviously, different team, different situation, but the point is, much like Bush McCoy isn't living up to the hype in terms of big plays. He does a little better as a receiver, but no RUNNING back can survive long in a featured role if he doesn't run well.

So will he be servicable this year? Maybe. But not for very long, because he will be replaced by a better runner - just like Bush was.

Watch out for Bell and/or the rookie Charles Scott to begin eating into his carries more quickly than you'd like. Scott is a favorite sleeper of mine for little to no investment.

 
SELL HIGH in dynasty. I told everyone to sell high on Bush three years ago, and I see the same thing with Shady, only to a smaller degree and with less pomp.He's not a great runner. He's not even a GOOD runner at the NFL level. His DVOA rank was 36th among RBs last year. He was 26th in success rate (which measures how effective a guy is keeping drives alive basically). Obviously, that's awful.
just for the recordRay Rice rookie yearDYAR: 36thDVOA: 30thRay Rice 2nd yearDYAR: 3rdDVOA: 6thand for the Success Rate, well Buckalter was 1st & Chris Johson 32th last year
 
SELL HIGH in dynasty. I told everyone to sell high on Bush three years ago, and I see the same thing with Shady, only to a smaller degree and with less pomp.He's not a great runner. He's not even a GOOD runner at the NFL level. His DVOA rank was 36th among RBs last year. He was 26th in success rate (which measures how effective a guy is keeping drives alive basically). Obviously, that's awful.
just for the recordRay Rice rookie yearDYAR: 36thDVOA: 30thRay Rice 2nd yearDYAR: 3rdDVOA: 6th
 
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SELL HIGH in dynasty. I told everyone to sell high on Bush three years ago, and I see the same thing with Shady, only to a smaller degree and with less pomp.

He's not a great runner. He's not even a GOOD runner at the NFL level. His DVOA rank was 36th among RBs last year. He was 26th in success rate (which measures how effective a guy is keeping drives alive basically). Obviously, that's awful.
just for the record

Ray Rice rookie year

DYAR: 36th

DVOA: 30th

Ray Rice 2nd year

DYAR: 3rd

DVOA: 6th
Just for the recordRice

McCoy

Notice the legs and center of gravity for both. Sell High.

 
This is a situation where my being an Eagles fan and season ticket holder, I feel like what I see on the field somewhat overtakes what the numbers may suggest. I'll be honest, there wasn't one moment last year, watching LeSean, that I felt he was a difference maker. I'm not saying that's justifiable or that one's opinion isn't clouded by personal bias in retrospect, but I honestly can't think of a moment where I looked at McCoy playing and thought, "We hit a home run with this guy!" I can definitively say I felt that way at times with DeSean (obviously), Maclin (as the season progressed) and Celek (which surprised me as I wasn't expecting a lot out of him entering last year); but not McCoy.

Does that mean he can't or won't emerge in Year 2? Certainly not, but it's going to be hard for me to go all in.

 
This is a situation where my being an Eagles fan and season ticket holder, I feel like what I see on the field somewhat overtakes what the numbers may suggest. I'll be honest, there wasn't one moment last year, watching LeSean, that I felt he was a difference maker. I'm not saying that's justifiable or that one's opinion isn't clouded by personal bias in retrospect, but I honestly can't think of a moment where I looked at McCoy playing and thought, "We hit a home run with this guy!" I can definitively say I felt that way at times with DeSean (obviously), Maclin (as the season progressed) and Celek (which surprised me as I wasn't expecting a lot out of him entering last year); but not McCoy.Does that mean he can't or won't emerge in Year 2? Certainly not, but it's going to be hard for me to go all in.
I understand what you're saying Jason, but don't you think McCoy could present some value this year in PPR leagues? He should catch a ton of balls and although he looked slow last year, I read that he lost dropped some weight and is thinner this year. Thoughts?
 
SELL HIGH in dynasty. I told everyone to sell high on Bush three years ago, and I see the same thing with Shady, only to a smaller degree and with less pomp.He's not a great runner. He's not even a GOOD runner at the NFL level. His DVOA rank was 36th among RBs last year. He was 26th in success rate (which measures how effective a guy is keeping drives alive basically). Obviously, that's awful.And it's not really that surprising. I know measurables aren't everything, but his were some of the worst I've ever seen for a guy drafted where he was. He had a 29" vert and an 8'11" broad (at his PRO DAY). He really just doesn't have the elite explosion you expect for a guy as small as he is. And that DOES seem to be translating on the field. He had one run longer than 20 yards all year long (same as Leonard Weaver). Lightning quick Mike Bell (yes, that is sarcasm) had four. Obviously, different team, different situation, but the point is, much like Bush McCoy isn't living up to the hype in terms of big plays. He does a little better as a receiver, but no RUNNING back can survive long in a featured role if he doesn't run well.So will he be servicable this year? Maybe. But not for very long, because he will be replaced by a better runner - just like Bush was.Watch out for Bell and/or the rookie Charles Scott to begin eating into his carries more quickly than you'd like. Scott is a favorite sleeper of mine for little to no investment.
:goodposting: Fantastic analysis, couldn't have said it better.
 
This is a situation where my being an Eagles fan and season ticket holder, I feel like what I see on the field somewhat overtakes what the numbers may suggest. I'll be honest, there wasn't one moment last year, watching LeSean, that I felt he was a difference maker. I'm not saying that's justifiable or that one's opinion isn't clouded by personal bias in retrospect, but I honestly can't think of a moment where I looked at McCoy playing and thought, "We hit a home run with this guy!" I can definitively say I felt that way at times with DeSean (obviously), Maclin (as the season progressed) and Celek (which surprised me as I wasn't expecting a lot out of him entering last year); but not McCoy.Does that mean he can't or won't emerge in Year 2? Certainly not, but it's going to be hard for me to go all in.
I understand what you're saying Jason, but don't you think McCoy could present some value this year in PPR leagues? He should catch a ton of balls and although he looked slow last year, I read that he lost dropped some weight and is thinner this year. Thoughts?
He was under 200 pounds last season, wasn't he? I'm not sure how him dropping weight would be a good thing.
 
This is a situation where my being an Eagles fan and season ticket holder, I feel like what I see on the field somewhat overtakes what the numbers may suggest. I'll be honest, there wasn't one moment last year, watching LeSean, that I felt he was a difference maker. I'm not saying that's justifiable or that one's opinion isn't clouded by personal bias in retrospect, but I honestly can't think of a moment where I looked at McCoy playing and thought, "We hit a home run with this guy!" I can definitively say I felt that way at times with DeSean (obviously), Maclin (as the season progressed) and Celek (which surprised me as I wasn't expecting a lot out of him entering last year); but not McCoy.

Does that mean he can't or won't emerge in Year 2? Certainly not, but it's going to be hard for me to go all in.
I understand what you're saying Jason, but don't you think McCoy could present some value this year in PPR leagues? He should catch a ton of balls and although he looked slow last year, I read that he lost dropped some weight and is thinner this year. Thoughts?
Looks like a duck, talks like a duck, walks like a duck.....He looked slow because he is slow.

 
Is it just me or was anyone else not impressed with his running style? Just because he's replacing Westbrook in scheme doesn't make him Westbrook in his prime.
sell high of the offseason IMOHe was underwhelming running the football to say the least in the tackles. I project Weaver/Bell to have in upwards of 200 carries. McCoy unquestionably will catch a bunch of passes (so he'll have nice PPR value)
Exactly what I did this off-season (1.2, 1.3). I like him...but i don't love him. He looked average last season and showed me no signs of ever being an elite player. With that his situation is pretty good.800 yards rushing with 4 TD's 65 receptions for 400 yards with 2 TD's.A good #2 RB in ppr. However if you can move him for a chance at Dez, Spiller or Matthews......jump. Especially Spiller and Dez who are Blue chip elite upside type players IMO.
 
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