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Pierre Garcon, WR, Indianapolis Colts (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

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Thread Topic: Pierre Garcon, WR, Indianapolis Colts

Player Page Link: Pierre Garcon Player Page

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IMO the playoffs were a 2010 preview: 21-252-2 in three games was huge, and I think this year will be the first year where Garcon is to Wayne as Wayne was to Harrison.

Two years ago Garcon was a 6th round pick out of a Div III school. And a year ago he was a second year player with four career catches. So IMO those playoff numbers aren't as fluky as they look - he had a lot of room to take a big leap forward. I think he did.

In the playoffs Garcon had 32 targets (25% of Indy's total) and a 66% catch rate. For my projections I assumed the Colts would throw 525 to 575 times, Garcon would get 20-25% of the targets, and would catch 60-65% of them.

78-1110-7

 
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I had similar results spring to mind when I read the name.

Collie and Gonzo are different enough beasts to not take too many reps from Garcon, and his playoffs were great, normally a time when QBs try to go to their trusted names (Though that drop in the SB is still strong in my mind)

77/1020/5

 
What about the fact that there are so many mouths to feed? Wayne and Clark are still going to be the primary targets, and Manning likes to spread the ball to his RBs and slot WRs, whether that's Collie or Gonzo. These projections look a little high to me and I'm curious to know what you think about the distribution of targets.

2009 Targets:

Wayne 149

Clark 132

Garcon 92

Collie 90

Addai 63

Garcon only caught 51% of his targets last year. Assume he improves to 55%... for him to catch 77 passes would require 140 targets. It's not out of the realm of possibility, but it seems unlikely, as Collie should improve, too, and Gonzo is back in the mix as well.

 
I don't know that I can come up with a number yet, but Garcon, Collie, Wayne, Gonzo, and Clark. That's a lot of mouths to feed. I have a feeling that either Garcon or Collie takes a step back, but I don't know which one yet.

 
Garcon only caught 51% of his targets last year. Assume he improves to 55%... for him to catch 77 passes would require 140 targets. It's not out of the realm of possibility, but it seems unlikely, as Collie should improve, too, and Gonzo is back in the mix as well.
And herein lies the problem with Garcon. He still just drops too many passes. Both Collie and Gonzo (08 for gonzo) caught about 70-75% of their passes. That's a BIG difference to Garcon's 50'ish%. I have a real problem in thinking the Colts and Manning haven't noticed this. I don't think the size is very different between the 3, although Garcon's build is more thick and he seems to handle contact after the catch a bit better.I'd expect more of the same, with a slight drop in overall #'s. Garcon will be more of a

45 / 720 / 4 TD guy

Overall I think the Colts passing game takes a tick upward, so Garcon and Collie won't change much and Gonzo picks up a smaller portion but not insignificant.

 
Garcon only caught 51% of his targets last year. Assume he improves to 55%... for him to catch 77 passes would require 140 targets. It's not out of the realm of possibility, but it seems unlikely, as Collie should improve, too, and Gonzo is back in the mix as well.
And herein lies the problem with Garcon. He still just drops too many passes. Both Collie and Gonzo (08 for gonzo) caught about 70-75% of their passes. That's a BIG difference to Garcon's 50'ish%. I have a real problem in thinking the Colts and Manning haven't noticed this. I don't think the size is very different between the 3, although Garcon's build is more thick and he seems to handle contact after the catch a bit better.I'd expect more of the same, with a slight drop in overall #'s. Garcon will be more of a

45 / 720 / 4 TD guy

Overall I think the Colts passing game takes a tick upward, so Garcon and Collie won't change much and Gonzo picks up a smaller portion but not insignificant.
I know Garcon drops passes, but does he really drop "too many"? I continue to hear this on these boards, but I've yet to see him on a listing in the top 20 or so in drops.See this link for last year's AFC ~top 20 in drops.

Garcon isn't listed there. Is it that he drops too many passes, or that the way that the Colts use Garcon differs from Gonzo/Collie? Or is it that Manning / Garcon didn't get on the same page until later in the year?

I'm very interested to see if that ratio changed from earlier in the year in to the final weeks of the season / the playoffs.

 
karmarooster said:
And herein lies the problem with Garcon. He still just drops too many passes. Both Collie and Gonzo (08 for gonzo) caught about 70-75% of their passes. That's a BIG difference to Garcon's 50'ish%.
This is more of a function of the downfield patterns that Garcon runs. I would have said the exact opposite... i thought Garcon was continually making tough sideline grabs and catches on over the top lobs.That said, the return of healthier options hurts him.

55 - 840 - 5

 
My thoughts are similar to others who have said that there are too many mouths to feed in that offense. Garcon has talent but so does Wayne, Clark, Gonzalez, Collie, Addai, Brown..... Garcon becomes just another cog in the wheel.

Projections: 36/545/4 for a PPR ranking of WR70

 
Patoons said:
IndyHavoc said:
karmarooster said:
Garcon only caught 51% of his targets last year. Assume he improves to 55%... for him to catch 77 passes would require 140 targets. It's not out of the realm of possibility, but it seems unlikely, as Collie should improve, too, and Gonzo is back in the mix as well.
And herein lies the problem with Garcon. He still just drops too many passes. Both Collie and Gonzo (08 for gonzo) caught about 70-75% of their passes. That's a BIG difference to Garcon's 50'ish%. I have a real problem in thinking the Colts and Manning haven't noticed this. I don't think the size is very different between the 3, although Garcon's build is more thick and he seems to handle contact after the catch a bit better.I'd expect more of the same, with a slight drop in overall #'s. Garcon will be more of a

45 / 720 / 4 TD guy

Overall I think the Colts passing game takes a tick upward, so Garcon and Collie won't change much and Gonzo picks up a smaller portion but not insignificant.
I know Garcon drops passes, but does he really drop "too many"? I continue to hear this on these boards, but I've yet to see him on a listing in the top 20 or so in drops.See this link for last year's AFC ~top 20 in drops.

Garcon isn't listed there. Is it that he drops too many passes, or that the way that the Colts use Garcon differs from Gonzo/Collie? Or is it that Manning / Garcon didn't get on the same page until later in the year?

I'm very interested to see if that ratio changed from earlier in the year in to the final weeks of the season / the playoffs.
That chart just lists total drops though, not percentage of drops vs. targets... Have to wonder if he'd make the list with increased targets and more opportunities to drop the ball.
 
Garcon is likely to be one of the most polarizing players this year, so this should be a great spotlight thread. :coffee:

A few thoughts:

One thing I noticed from Garcon later in the season was how much better his route running was and how he learned to get away from a corner who tried to jam him at the line. Garcon has a lot of strength and when those CBs tried to jam him at the line, especially in the playoffs, he seemed to toss them aside like a rag doll in many instances and next thing you know, a pass was coming in his direction.

Garcon was inconsistent catching the ball, but he improved quite a bit as the season went on. I don't think his hands are bad; rather, he seemed to lose focus from time to time and that can happen with a young player. Also, Garcon's catch percentage was noticeably better later in the year. In fact, his last 8 games (5 regular season games and the 3 playoff games), Garcon caught 42 of his 68 targets (62%) for 613 yards. Not too shabby when you consider he averaged close to 15 yard per carry in those games and had several deep targets. He improved drastically from the 46% catch percentage he had in the first 10 weeks, which was pretty much his first serious playing time at the NFL level.

The scary thing is he played at a small college and is just learning how to play at this level against elite competition. He has some sick physical skills and has huge upside. His speed is a huge advantage over Gonzalez and Collie. I think Garcon continues to improve and will put a death grip on the starting job.

With Wayne and Clark around, Garcon will see a lot of single coverage and as he improves, Manning will exploit that, especially deep.

120 targets, 70 catches, 1075 yards, 8 TDs

 
No one has really speculated on expected drop offs of Wayne or Clark. While I saw no sign of Clark slowing down, Wayne appeared to be more "sluggish looking" this season (bigger and slower?). I know thats a bold thing to say coming off of a 100 catch season, but he is 31 yrs old now (32 in november) and at some point he will stop commanding so many targets.

Clark will be 31 next month and is likely one more concussion away from missing extended playing time - if not retirement.

That said, I'm not completely sold on Garcon's playoff performance as I think they very well could have game planned to use Wayne and Clark more as decoys while pulling out all the stops. I think 2010 is extremely unpredictable for Garcon, however, his long term value should be relatviely high since Manning should outlast Clark and Wayne by a few years.

 
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Manning had the most passing attempts he's had since 2002 last year and threw for 4500 yards (57 yards from his career high). And Gonzalez is coming back.

I just don't see how Garcon has a great opportunity to better last year's numbers when you start slotting Gonzalez with a piece of the pie. At this point, we pretty much know Wayne and Clark are going to get theirs . . . so unless we project nothing but crumbs for everyone else, I am a bit perplexed on how Garcon will be at or over 1,000 yards this year.

Once you deduct out Wayne, Clark, and RBs, there are probably 100 receptions and 1,500 receiving yards leftover to now split three ways (assuming Manning can repeat his lofty 2009 totals) instead of two.

40-650-3

 
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I'm with the post from "Yudkin" above...just too far down the list seems like...talented WR..just in an offense with a ton of talent to exploit.

50 rec

800 yards

6 TDs

 
Manning had the most passing attempts he's had since 2002 last year and threw for 4500 yards (57 yards from his career high). And Gonzalez is coming back.I just don't see how Garcon has a great opportunity to better last year's numbers when you start slotting Gonzalez with a piece of the pie. At this point, we pretty much know Wayne and Clark are going to get theirs . . . so unless we project nothing but crumbs for everyone else, I am a bit perplexed on how Garcon will be at or over 1,000 yards this year.Once you deduct out Wayne, Clark, and RBs, there are probably 100 receptions and 1,500 receiving yards leftover to now split three ways (assuming Manning can repeat his lofty 2009 totals) instead of two.40-650-3
Thats just it, the high projections for Garcon have to include a decrease for Wayne or Clar (or both). You made the comment that "Wayne and Clark are going to get theirs..." but we all know that is not necessarily the case. First, Wayne will drop off sooner or later (I predict sooner)..... and why is Clark such a sure thing? His 6 season prior to 2009 his highest receptions total was 77 and his next highest was 58. Yet we assume he will continue to go all gang busters at 31 years old?Its no less likely that Wayne will have 75 receptions versus 100 receptions. Same with Clark. That would leave 50 additional receptions to go somewhere... Garcon, collie, gonzales? Just arguing all sides to be fair.These same arguments were made when there weren't enough balls to go around for Wayne to be a stud when Harrison was clicking just a few years ago. Things change.
 
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posted from another board to get more takes on the situation.

P.Garcon2009 Stats: 47 receptions, 765 yards, 16.3 yards per catch, 4 touchdownsGarçon absolutely benefitted from the absence of Anthony Gonzalez last season and that’s a situation that is not certain to exist this year. If Gonzo comes back healthy, then Garçon could very easily become a forgotten man in this offense that already boasts Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark and a pair of good pass-catching running backs in Joseph Addai and Donald Brown. He should be stashed for fantasy depth only.(‘10 Proj: 35 receptions, 600 yards, 2 touchdowns) ~Frank Mazzola-----I think last season is about as good as it gets for Garçon unless he finds a new home or Anthony Gonzalez misses the entire 2010 season as well. If he stays in Indianapolis, he will likely be the fifth best option on any given play. (’10 Proj: 25 receptions, 300 yards, 2 touchdowns) ~Robb Perkins----- He was Peyton Manning's "go-to guy", and leading receiver in the playoffs as defenses concentrated on shutting down Reggie Wayne. Garçon finished with 21 receptions for 251 yards and two touchdowns in three post-season games. He is entering his third season in the NFL, and has earned a starting wide receiver position on the high-octane Colts' offense. Sounds like a lot of upside to me. ('10 Proj: 82 receptions 1,175 yards, 6 touchdowns) ~Chris DiLeo-----Along with Austin Collie, Garçon was one of two young Colts receivers who were taken under Peyton Manning’s wing during the offseason, and during the season, and emerged as a viable fantasy option. The return of Anthony Gonzalez next year will certainly hamper his production, but as long as Peyton Manning is throwing him the ball, he remains a viable WR3 option. As always with him or any Colts, don’t bank on him winning you a championship, as he put up a total of 2 fantasy points in Weeks 15-16, but he can certainly be a strong piece to help you reach the playoffs.(’10 Proj: 750 yards, 5 touchdowns) ~Marc Tokushige-----It only took about a month before Garçon got on the radar and after that it was too late to pick up the second-year surprise out of the D-3 dynasty, Mount Union. What I liked this season was that he gave the Colts another player to stretch the field other than Reggie Wayne. Even if Anthony Gonzalez was healthy, he's not the type of player to run corner and fly routes behind a secondary. Garçon picked up the offense quickly and proved to be a valuable asset in the NFL playoffs, which will keep him well in the game plan for 2010 and moving forward as a quality WR2. ('10 Proj: 55 receptions, 950 yards, 7 touchdowns) ~Ernie Estrella-----Initially asked to help cover the loss of the aforementioned Gonzalez, I think his postseason run (minus the critical drop in the Super Bowl) was enough to solidify his position with the Colts as their deep ball number 2 receiver for the foreseeable future. At 6’0 and 210 pounds, Garçon isn’t the biggest cat, but it became obvious that Garçon was the most explosive of the Colts receivers in 2009 and the return of Gonzalez does not change that in 2010 just at Ernie pointed out. Still needs to work on his route running and concentration, but thanks to Manning, Garçon will get enough looks to be a viable number 3 fantasy receiver. (’10 Proj: 62 receptions, 940 yards, 8 touchdowns) ~Jon Rascon----- As you remember, Indianapolis’ starting No. 2 wide out, Anthony Gonzalez, missed virtually the entire 2009 season with a knee injury, and Pierre Garçon stepped up adequately as a replacement in a time-share with Austin Collie. After an up-and-down start, Garçon became a more consistent fantasy contributor, averaging 4.1 receptions and 65.6 receiving yards per game from Week 7 through Week 14. He scored twice and racked up two 100-yard receiving games in that time frame. Garçon also made a strong showing in the NFL playoffs, which included a record-setting performance -- 11 catches for 151 yards and one touchdown -- against the New York Jets.However, I think Gonzalez will get his starting gig back -- unless the fourth-year pro’s rehabbed knee gives him problems. Gonzalez, a former first-round pick (hint, hint) already has proven himself. The talented Ohio State product had amassed 57 catches for 664 yards and four touchdowns in 2008, and I think he has better speed, hands, route-running skills and overall potential than Garçon. Worst-case scenario: Gonzalez would start but share time with Garçon and Collie, which would obviously limit the fantasy value of each player as WR3s. Don’t forget: The Colts’ No. 2 wide receiver spot is the third option in their passing attack behind Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark. Be sure to keep an eye on the Gonzalez/Garçon/Collie situation heading into the preseason.('10 Proj: 25 receptions, 375 yards, 3 touchdowns) ~Matt Wilson-----Big time overvalued. There will be two or three owners at minimum in every league who will take a look at Pierre Garcon's stats and do a bit of generous extrapolating for 2010. That means I'm almost certain he won't make into onto my roster in any scoring format. During the regular season, Pierre's 47 receptions were good for FIFTH among all Colts behind Wayne, Clark, Collie and Addai. As has been mentioned above, when you blend in the return of Gonzalez and an expanded role for Donald Brown I can't envision a scenario where Garcon repeats 2009 - let alone builds upon it. ('10 Proj: 30 receptions, 350 yards, 4 touchdowns) ~Rick Perkins
Im of the opinion as he is the one to own. He doesnt cost too much right now but he could be moving in on a biggie share of "Clark/Wayne's" part of the pie this year and beyond.

I think he is close to a 900yrd season and 6-8 td range this yr.

 
No one has really speculated on expected drop offs of Wayne or Clark. While I saw no sign of Clark slowing down, Wayne appeared to be more "sluggish looking" this season (bigger and slower?). I know thats a bold thing to say coming off of a 100 catch season, but he is 31 yrs old now (32 in november) and at some point he will stop commanding so many targets.

Clark will be 31 next month and is likely one more concussion away from missing extended playing time - if not retirement.

It seems your argument for Garcon to dramatically increase his targets (from 90 to at least 150 to even possibly approach 90 catches this year) rests on Wayne and Clark being over-the-hill because they are 31. That just isn't the case for receivers. Good ones play at peak efficiency until around 35 (SSOG did a solid analysis recently concluding they typically begin to fall off around 34). I assume this disparity from RBs is that WRs get tackled about 1/4th as often, usually by CBs and safeties, and rarely head on - ciircumstances which hammer RBs constantly). But for whatever reason, absent injury, good receivers just don't decline at all by 31 or 32 or 33.

In your other argument on this, you point to Harrison giving way to Wayne as an example of what you expect. The reality is that Harrison didn't give way to Wayne for several years after Wayne proved he was a capable receiver, and Marvin still commanded 150 targets annually through age 34, faltering due to injury at 35 and erosion thereafter.

While Clark may be an increased injury risk, there just isn't any other reason to assume either he or Wayne will start eroding at their ages or be any less focal. With Addai and Brown, that still leaves a small pie piece for Garcon, Collie and Gonzalez to divide.

Unless Garcon takes over the #2 job completely (which I don't see unless he catches up to and overtakes Austin and Anthony in the short passing game) my best guess is 68 catches on 120 targets, for 980 and 5 TDs.
 
...function of the downfield patterns that Garcon runs...
Garcon: 16.3 yards-per-catch in 2009, Collie is at 11.3 (676 yards on 60 catches). Garcon's catch % is more a function of the type of WR he is.60 catches at 16.3 yards = 978 yards. I think 60/1000/6-8TDs is reasonable to expect, with the way he was used in the playooffs.
 
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For those citing Garcon's numbers in the playoffs as a primary reason to give him a bump . . .

Looking just at Manning's numbers in 3 games in the post season last year, projected over a full season, he would have:

464 completions (career high of 393 last year)

683 attempts (career high of 591 in 2002)

5100 yards (career high of 4557 in 2004)

32 TD

Clearly Manning is not going to throw the ball nearly 700 times.

In addition, Anthony Gonzalez was not available in the playoffs. For those suggesting Garcon gets 1000 receiving yards . . . what would you project Gonzalez and Collie to have?

I think this is a classic case of people needing to outline their complete team receiving projections for the Colts, as combined people may be inadvertantly slotting the Colts and Manning for 6000 passing yards when you add up all the individual players.

 
Has there been a case where a 1st round wr who had a starting gig got completely lost in the shuffle when other stepped in and took his role and ran with it

while he still trying to get back at 100%? As far as Gonzales is concerned. I think this a good problem for the colts to have guys that can step in but im not so

much sure what all this means for the 3 wr's behind Wayne. Although to me Garcon is more of a deep threat and better suited on the outside than the other two.

 
Has there been a case where a 1st round wr who had a starting gig got completely lost in the shuffle when other stepped in and took his role and ran with it

while he still trying to get back at 100%? As far as Gonzales is concerned. I think this a good problem for the colts to have guys that can step in but im not so

much sure what all this means for the 3 wr's behind Wayne. Although to me Garcon is more of a deep threat and better suited on the outside than the other two.
That's what I see as well. I think Gonzalez and Collie split reps out of the slot. I don't think Gonzalez's return impacts Garcon nearly so much as it does Collie and Clark.

Based on his rapid progression over the last two years and particularly over the course of last year, I don't see any reason to think he won't begin to take targets from other spots.

I could very well be wrong, but I see him as firmly entrenched at the WR2 spot and one of the top 3 options on passing downs.

I like his upside as much as anyone not already established as an elite player.

65-950-7

 
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Manning had the most passing attempts he's had since 2002 last year and threw for 4500 yards (57 yards from his career high). And Gonzalez is coming back.I just don't see how Garcon has a great opportunity to better last year's numbers when you start slotting Gonzalez with a piece of the pie. At this point, we pretty much know Wayne and Clark are going to get theirs . . . so unless we project nothing but crumbs for everyone else, I am a bit perplexed on how Garcon will be at or over 1,000 yards this year.Once you deduct out Wayne, Clark, and RBs, there are probably 100 receptions and 1,500 receiving yards leftover to now split three ways (assuming Manning can repeat his lofty 2009 totals) instead of two.40-650-3
1. can Gonzalez stay healthy? was Gonzalez anything more than a 3/4 WR? no..2. can Clark stay healthy, last year was the first time he was healthy all season long - chances of that happening again? zero.3. has Wayne slipped and has he begun to slow down? yes,probably he has a lot of ifs, I know..but if we get an injury to Clark or Wayne, Garcon is the main benefactor , not Gonzalez or Collie..with Clark's injury-riddled past and concussion history and age (31?), perhaps the writing is on the wall with him..Wayne,while still producing, looked slow and sluggish in the post-season ..I know he was hurt,but does that injury linger on in 2010?70/1075/8we're only just starting to scratch the surface with this guy,he's just coming into his prime..
 
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Indy WR Anthony Gonzolez is a talented player. His only concern is recovering from injury to fully participate in 2010 Off season program and demonstrate what he can do and how it helps the team as a whole.

I sold Garcon in Feb. I firmly believe A Gonzo returns and is a part of the fold.

Just as Wayne replaced Marvin Harrison as he began to lose a step, time will catch up with Reggie Wayne. Wayne's age will start to play a part, but who is better suited to replace him? Collie, Garcon or Gonzo?

I don't see Garcon as being the clear WR#2 in Indy. I see it as a revolving pattern of play based on schemes and opponents. Collie, Gonzo & Garcon will each play a part and each will eat the pie differenly week in an week out.

While P Manning won't have career #'s again, he will still be top caliber QB and hit great value.

Garcon: 45 rec 725 yards 4 TD

 
...

The scary thing is he played at a small college and is just learning how to play at this level against elite competition. He has some sick physical skills and has huge upside. His speed is a huge advantage over Gonzalez and Collie. I think Garcon continues to improve and will put a death grip on the starting job.

120 targets, 70 catches, 1075 yards, 8 TDs
Wow! As a Colt fan I hope the prediction is right. Unfortunately, the bolded statements don't wash with me. He's at most 1/2" taller than either Collie or Gonzo. His vert was less than both, his 40 time falls in the middle (and Collie reportedly ran sub 4.4 his freshman year, so who knows what he's really capable of) of the two - Gonzo 4.08, Garcon 4.48, Collie 4.54. He looks to have a bit more upper body strength as the other 2, but all float around 200 lbs.I don't know AB, I just don't see it with Garcon. There's absolutely nothing wrong with him, or his game. But I'm not seeing anything that screams extreme talent that demands more playing time or targets. I'll be extremely shocked if his targets climb this season.

 
...

The scary thing is he played at a small college and is just learning how to play at this level against elite competition. He has some sick physical skills and has huge upside. His speed is a huge advantage over Gonzalez and Collie. I think Garcon continues to improve and will put a death grip on the starting job.

120 targets, 70 catches, 1075 yards, 8 TDs
Wow! As a Colt fan I hope the prediction is right. Unfortunately, the bolded statements don't wash with me. He's at most 1/2" taller than either Collie or Gonzo. His vert was less than both, his 40 time falls in the middle (and Collie reportedly ran sub 4.4 his freshman year, so who knows what he's really capable of) of the two - Gonzo 4.08, Garcon 4.48, Collie 4.54. He looks to have a bit more upper body strength as the other 2, but all float around 200 lbs.I don't know AB, I just don't see it with Garcon. There's absolutely nothing wrong with him, or his game. But I'm not seeing anything that screams extreme talent that demands more playing time or targets. I'll be extremely shocked if his targets climb this season.
Not sure how you didn't "see" his production. Also, I'd be curious to know what you are "seeing" with Gonzo? He's a bust at this point, just like several of the receivers taken ahead of him in the 2007 draft. The Colts aren't going to bench productive 2nd year players (Garcon and Collie) for an unproductive 4th year player. I expect Gonzo's role to be similar to Lance Moore's role with the Saints at the end of last season. Meachem ascended past Moore while he was out with injury and now Lance rotates in on a few plays and serves as our 4th receiver. That's just the way it goes in the NFL. This isn't pop warner football where the coaches have to treat everyone fairly. Gonzo lost his chance when he got injured and the young guys stepped in and produced.
 
...

The scary thing is he played at a small college and is just learning how to play at this level against elite competition. He has some sick physical skills and has huge upside. His speed is a huge advantage over Gonzalez and Collie. I think Garcon continues to improve and will put a death grip on the starting job.

120 targets, 70 catches, 1075 yards, 8 TDs
Wow! As a Colt fan I hope the prediction is right. Unfortunately, the bolded statements don't wash with me. He's at most 1/2" taller than either Collie or Gonzo. His vert was less than both, his 40 time falls in the middle (and Collie reportedly ran sub 4.4 his freshman year, so who knows what he's really capable of) of the two - Gonzo 4.08, Garcon 4.48, Collie 4.54. He looks to have a bit more upper body strength as the other 2, but all float around 200 lbs.I don't know AB, I just don't see it with Garcon. There's absolutely nothing wrong with him, or his game. But I'm not seeing anything that screams extreme talent that demands more playing time or targets. I'll be extremely shocked if his targets climb this season.
Not sure how you didn't "see" his production. Also, I'd be curious to know what you are "seeing" with Gonzo? He's a bust at this point, just like several of the receivers taken ahead of him in the 2007 draft. The Colts aren't going to bench productive 2nd year players (Garcon and Collie) for an unproductive 4th year player. I expect Gonzo's role to be similar to Lance Moore's role with the Saints at the end of last season. Meachem ascended past Moore while he was out with injury and now Lance rotates in on a few plays and serves as our 4th receiver. That's just the way it goes in the NFL. This isn't pop warner football where the coaches have to treat everyone fairly. Gonzo lost his chance when he got injured and the young guys stepped in and produced.
What about Anthony Gonzalez's 57/664/4 season as the WR3 was unproductive or a bust? He caught 72% of his 79 targets while splitting time with Marvin, Wayne, and Clark in 2008, and 72% of his targets in 2007 his rookie year. In contrast, your "productive" players Collie and Garcon only caught 66% and 51% of their passes.

 
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I really don't get all the Gonzalez love in this thread, and really, on this board. He's a decent WR2/Slot type of WR, very similar to Collie. Garcon is a WR1 guy who will eventually replace Wayne, which may be sooner than people think. Wayne looked out of it at the end of last year and Clark is 31 and just had one of his few injury-free seasons. All three young guys are the next generation for Peyton, but I don't see how you put two WR2/Slot guys in Collie and Gonzalez ahead of a WR1/upside guy in Garcon. What am I missing?

 
Wow! As a Colt fan I hope the prediction is right. Unfortunately, the bolded statements don't wash with me. He's at most 1/2" taller than either Collie or Gonzo. His vert was less than both, his 40 time falls in the middle (and Collie reportedly ran sub 4.4 his freshman year, so who knows what he's really capable of) of the two - Gonzo 4.08, Garcon 4.48, Collie 4.54. He looks to have a bit more upper body strength as the other 2, but all float around 200 lbs.
Where are you getting your info? I googled their combine results and a lot of data from this post is wrong.- Garcon is not taller than Gonzalez and Collie. Garcon is 6', Gonzalez is 6', and Collie is 6'1".- "Floating around 200 lbs" is a misrepresentation of their weights. Garcon is 210, Gonzalez is 195, and Collie is 200.- Gonzalez ran a 4.44, not a 4.08, at the combine. Garcon was within 4 hundredths of a second while being 15 pounds heavier. nfl.com lists Collie's time as 4.63, not 4.54.- Garcon had a vert of 36.5, compared to 38.0 for Gonzalez and 34.0 for Collie.
 
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Wow! As a Colt fan I hope the prediction is right. Unfortunately, the bolded statements don't wash with me. He's at most 1/2" taller than either Collie or Gonzo. His vert was less than both, his 40 time falls in the middle (and Collie reportedly ran sub 4.4 his freshman year, so who knows what he's really capable of) of the two - Gonzo 4.08, Garcon 4.48, Collie 4.54. He looks to have a bit more upper body strength as the other 2, but all float around 200 lbs.
Where are you getting your info? I googled their combine results and a lot of data from this post is wrong.- Garcon is not taller than Gonzalez and Collie. Garcon is 6', Gonzalez is 6', and Collie is 6'1".- "Floating around 200 lbs" is a misrepresentation of their weights. Garcon is 215, Gonzalez is 195, and Collie is 200.- Gonzalez ran a 4.44, not a 4.08, at the combine. Garcon was within 4 hundredths of a second while being 15 pounds heavier. nfl.com lists Collie's time as 4.63, not 4.54.- Garcon had a vert of 36.5, compared to 38.0 for Gonzalez and 34.0 for Collie.
:own3d:
 
I really don't get all the Gonzalez love in this thread, and really, on this board. He's a decent WR2/Slot type of WR, very similar to Collie. Garcon is a WR1 guy who will eventually replace Wayne, which may be sooner than people think. Wayne looked out of it at the end of last year and Clark is 31 and just had one of his few injury-free seasons. All three young guys are the next generation for Peyton, but I don't see how you put two WR2/Slot guys in Collie and Gonzalez ahead of a WR1/upside guy in Garcon. What am I missing?
:own3d: About what I see as well. Gonzo has always looked and played like a slot guy (no shame in that).Garcon is a supremely better choice to play on the outside than either Gonzo or Collie.
 
Gonzales may never be the same. He has been nursing this what originally was diagnosed as a strained ligiment (out 2-6 weeks) injury for a mighty long time.

 
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Unless you are predicting injury, offensive starters sitting out the last 2-3 games of the season, or a significant decline in opportunities from his 1st season as starting flanker for the Colts, then I really don't understand the predictions of <60 catches littered throughout this spotlight thread...

Despite possessing a rare size/speed/explosiveness combo that suits him well to the flanker role, Garcon's value still has ALOT to do with his situation. Taking over Marvin Harrison's old role for Manning and the Colts is a golden opportunity for a young talented WR entering only his 2nd season as starter.

If you believe Garcon is an NFL worthy talent as demonstrated by his 1st season and Super Bowl playoff run, then you would probably expect his learning curve to continue; and greater production is easy to project in 2010. However, if you don't believe that Garcon is anything special, then obviously you would be among those posters who are expecting a decrease in targets, and you may even be expecting the Colts to look for his replacement (some even suggest he is just keeping the spot warm for Gonzo).

No matter what you believe about his abilities, Garcon's production will certainly depend upon continued development (as he enters only his 2nd year as starter & talented NFL WRs need 2-3 years of seasoning); and he will be as productive as opportunities and # of targets allows. Last year he was given 92 targets in 13 starts, or about 7 targets/game. Similar opportunity over 16 games in 2010 would yield ~ 112 targets. He also averaged >16 yds./rec. and converted 51% of his targets into receptions in 2009. So how should that color your projections for 2010?

Considering he was learning on the job as a 1st year starter, I am willing to give him some benefit of the doubt and expect his catch% to increase modestly regardless of # of targets. I will also conservatively project him at 15 yds./rec., rather than last season's 16+yds./rec. If he improves even slightly on catch%, say a conservative bump to a 55% level, then even given a similar # of targets/game, he would be looking at 62 receptions and ~950+ yds (and several TDs most likely) over a 16 game season.

That's why I view his floor at 60+ receptions, ~950+ yds, 4+TDs in 2010.

However, I also expect a bump in targets (120+), and catch% into the high 50% range, giving him a still relatively conservative projection of:

70+ receptions, ~1,100 yds, & 6+TDs which would make him a very solid WR2 in fantasy.

Considering all the concern over target distribution, Wayne, Clark, 4WR sets, etc., you may be able to draft him as a WR3. If you can get him somewhere around WR24-36 in your draft, then I love the value he represents. If you already own him in dynasty then I would hold him and keep an eye on his catch% for 2010. Don't ever expect him to reach 70%, but if he doesn't at least start approaching 60%, then you can view him as the next Chris Chambers rather than the next Andre Reed.

 
...

The scary thing is he played at a small college and is just learning how to play at this level against elite competition. He has some sick physical skills and has huge upside. His speed is a huge advantage over Gonzalez and Collie. I think Garcon continues to improve and will put a death grip on the starting job.

120 targets, 70 catches, 1075 yards, 8 TDs
Wow! As a Colt fan I hope the prediction is right. Unfortunately, the bolded statements don't wash with me. He's at most 1/2" taller than either Collie or Gonzo. His vert was less than both, his 40 time falls in the middle (and Collie reportedly ran sub 4.4 his freshman year, so who knows what he's really capable of) of the two - Gonzo 4.08, Garcon 4.48, Collie 4.54. He looks to have a bit more upper body strength as the other 2, but all float around 200 lbs.I don't know AB, I just don't see it with Garcon. There's absolutely nothing wrong with him, or his game. But I'm not seeing anything that screams extreme talent that demands more playing time or targets. I'll be extremely shocked if his targets climb this season.
Not sure how you didn't "see" his production. Also, I'd be curious to know what you are "seeing" with Gonzo? He's a bust at this point, just like several of the receivers taken ahead of him in the 2007 draft. The Colts aren't going to bench productive 2nd year players (Garcon and Collie) for an unproductive 4th year player. I expect Gonzo's role to be similar to Lance Moore's role with the Saints at the end of last season. Meachem ascended past Moore while he was out with injury and now Lance rotates in on a few plays and serves as our 4th receiver. That's just the way it goes in the NFL. This isn't pop warner football where the coaches have to treat everyone fairly. Gonzo lost his chance when he got injured and the young guys stepped in and produced.
What about Anthony Gonzalez's 57/664/4 season as the WR3 was unproductive or a bust? He caught 72% of his 79 targets while splitting time with Marvin, Wayne, and Clark in 2008, and 72% of his targets in 2007 his rookie year. In contrast, your "productive" players Collie and Garcon only caught 66% and 51% of their passes.
Those are great stats. Too bad they don't matter. What catch rate did Brandon Marshall boast during his three consecutive 100+ catch seasons? There's more to it than catch percentage. How often does he command double coverage? How good can he block? How does he track and handle the deep ball? Is he a threat after the catch or on the ground? Does he get open routinely? Does he miss assignments? Catch percentage can be negatively affected as a result of being a good receiver. Sort of like how Revis doesn't boast very many interceptions or breakups because no one throws the ball in his direction. Drop percentage would be a better stat to look at, but again, it's a pretty minor stats. Who cares if you drop a few more balls than the next guy? The other things matter more. For example, I personally have very good hands and was a walk-on at Auburn. However, compared to the competition I was small, slow, weak, and lacked acceleration and burst.... ie I could not consistently shake the corner back so I never got open. My great hands became irrelevant pretty quick.57/664/4 is a nice season if you follow it up with something better. But when you miss the entire next season with injury and allow rookies to come in and put up similar or better stats while you were out - I'm sorry, but you just lost your starting job (one that you were only barely beginning to establish in the first place).

 
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I really don't get all the Gonzalez love in this thread, and really, on this board. He's a decent WR2/Slot type of WR, very similar to Collie. Garcon is a WR1 guy who will eventually replace Wayne, which may be sooner than people think. Wayne looked out of it at the end of last year and Clark is 31 and just had one of his few injury-free seasons. All three young guys are the next generation for Peyton, but I don't see how you put two WR2/Slot guys in Collie and Gonzalez ahead of a WR1/upside guy in Garcon. What am I missing?
I don't think anyone has said that Gonzo or Collie are BETTER than Garcon. It's just that with the number of weapons they have. Over the past 3 years Manning has averaged 547 pass attempts. I see targets distributed like this:Wayne - 130

Clark - 100

Garcon - 100

Collie - 80

Gonzo - 40

Addai - 50

Brown - 35

Total - 535

I haven't even started considering other WRs, TEs, and RBs. Those "others" last year combined for 56 targets. Even if you reduce the targets for Wayne and Clark significantly - they combined for 281 targets last year, I've reduced them to 230, a drop of 18% - AND cut Collie back (I'm not sure why as he was just impressive as Garcon last year, and very sure handed) AND predict a very slow rebound for Gonzo, there just isn't much room in this offense for Garcon to go way above 100 targets.

I don't know how else to divide the pie any smaller. Something else has to give: Manning will rely on Wayne/Clark and a combination of Garcon/Collie/Gonzo this year rather than shift the offense to Garcon. Manning and the Colts are still legit superbowl contenders, but they won't be for much longer due the age of Manning himself, Wayne, and Clark. He's not going to suddenly transition the offense to the younger guys. They will contribute, but I don't see Garcon getting Marvin-type targets this year.

Predicting Garcon above 70 catches and 1,000 yards requires not one but TWO leaps of faith - that he will see more than 100 targets, and improve his 51% catch rating. Whether it's hands or the routes he runs, I don't see him getting above 60% catch rate AND I don't see room for more than about 100ish targets.

60 receptions, 900 yards, 6 TDs. optimistically.

 
Those are great stats. Too bad they don't matter. What catch rate did Brandon Marshall boast during his three consecutive 100+ catch seasons? There's more to it than catch percentage. How often does he command double coverage? How good can he block? How does he track and handle the deep ball? Is he a threat after the catch or on the ground? Does he get open routinely? Does he miss assignments? Catch percentage can be negatively affected as a result of being a good receiver. Sort of like how Revis doesn't boast very many interceptions or breakups because no one throws the ball in his direction. Drop percentage would be a better stat to look at, but again, it's a pretty minor stats. Who cares if you drop a few more balls than the next guy? The other things matter more. For example, I personally have very good hands and was a walk-on at Auburn. However, compared to the competition I was small, slow, weak, and lacked acceleration and burst.... ie I could not consistently shake the corner back so I never got open. My great hands became irrelevant pretty quick.57/664/4 is a nice season if you follow it up with something better. But when you miss the entire next season with injury and allow rookies to come in and put up similar or better stats while you were out - I'm sorry, but you just lost your starting job (one that you were only barely beginning to establish in the first place).
Does he command double coverage? No. Can he block? Yes. How does he track and handle the deep ball? He's more suited to the slot and underneath routes. Is he a threat after the catch? Yes. Does he routinely get open? Yes. Does he miss assignments? He wouldn't be playing with Manning if he did. You're fishing for straws here. Just because he suffered an injury doesn't make him a bad WR. You claimed he was a bust, and he's far from it. It's true he lost his starting job, but Gonzo was drafted in the first round by a team with a impeccable draft record for a reason.
 
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Predicting Garcon above 70 catches and 1,000 yards requires not one but TWO leaps of faith - that he will see more than 100 targets, and improve his 51% catch rating. Whether it's hands or the routes he runs, I don't see him getting above 60% catch rate AND I don't see room for more than about 100ish targets.
Garcon had a 62% catch percentage in his last 8 games (5 regular season, 3 playoff). I don't see any reason why he can't hit 60% or thereabouts.
 
Wow! As a Colt fan I hope the prediction is right. Unfortunately, the bolded statements don't wash with me. He's at most 1/2" taller than either Collie or Gonzo. His vert was less than both, his 40 time falls in the middle (and Collie reportedly ran sub 4.4 his freshman year, so who knows what he's really capable of) of the two - Gonzo 4.08, Garcon 4.48, Collie 4.54. He looks to have a bit more upper body strength as the other 2, but all float around 200 lbs.
Where are you getting your info? I googled their combine results and a lot of data from this post is wrong.- Garcon is not taller than Gonzalez and Collie. Garcon is 6', Gonzalez is 6', and Collie is 6'1".- "Floating around 200 lbs" is a misrepresentation of their weights. Garcon is 215, Gonzalez is 195, and Collie is 200.- Gonzalez ran a 4.44, not a 4.08, at the combine. Garcon was within 4 hundredths of a second while being 15 pounds heavier. nfl.com lists Collie's time as 4.63, not 4.54.- Garcon had a vert of 36.5, compared to 38.0 for Gonzalez and 34.0 for Collie.
:thumbup:
......seriously? These 3 guys are very, very similar in size and speed. And every single fact that I posted AND you posted prove that out. But somehow that's "owned". Wowzahs, Identi...welcome to ignore (I try to ignore all people that post complete garbage on here, saves a LOT of time!).
 
Wow! As a Colt fan I hope the prediction is right. Unfortunately, the bolded statements don't wash with me. He's at most 1/2" taller than either Collie or Gonzo. His vert was less than both, his 40 time falls in the middle (and Collie reportedly ran sub 4.4 his freshman year, so who knows what he's really capable of) of the two - Gonzo 4.08, Garcon 4.48, Collie 4.54. He looks to have a bit more upper body strength as the other 2, but all float around 200 lbs.
Where are you getting your info? I googled their combine results and a lot of data from this post is wrong.- Garcon is not taller than Gonzalez and Collie. Garcon is 6', Gonzalez is 6', and Collie is 6'1".- "Floating around 200 lbs" is a misrepresentation of their weights. Garcon is 215, Gonzalez is 195, and Collie is 200.- Gonzalez ran a 4.44, not a 4.08, at the combine. Garcon was within 4 hundredths of a second while being 15 pounds heavier. nfl.com lists Collie's time as 4.63, not 4.54.- Garcon had a vert of 36.5, compared to 38.0 for Gonzalez and 34.0 for Collie.
:own3d:
......seriously? These 3 guys are very, very similar in size and speed. And every single fact that I posted AND you posted prove that out. But somehow that's "owned". Wowzahs, Identi...welcome to ignore (I try to ignore all people that post complete garbage on here, saves a LOT of time!).
You posted pretty bad info.Bottom line.
 
Thought this recent article addressing the Colts WR corps was very interesting, especially the analysis on Garcon.

May 12, 12:21 AM Indianapolis Colts Examiner - John Oehser

...In his 10th year, Wayne is closer to the end of his career than the beginning, but he has made the Pro Bowl the last four seasons, and has shown no signs of slipping in productivity.

If Wayne is about reliability, it's in the rest of the receiving corps that the chance for drastic improvement exists.

The Colts' receiver position improved steadily last season, and that happened with Anthony Gonzalez – a first-round selection in the 2007 NFL Draft – missing all but the first game with a knee injury.

When Gonzalez's injury first occurred, it had the feel of a season-hinderer, and the reason it wasn't was the continued development throughout the season of Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon, a rookie and a second-year player who most of the season played beyond expectations and experience level.

Collie, a fourth-round selection in the 2009 NFL Draft from Brigham Young, became a reliable option in the slot, and also emerged as a consistent red-zone threat. He caught seven touchdown passes, and during the post-season consistently made as many big, game-turning plays as any Colts receiver.

Garcon, though a bit more prone to dropped passes than is ideal, emerged as the most dangerous big-play threat in the Colts' offense. He had a key drop that sapped momentum at critical time in the Super Bowl, but his deep speed, strength to run after the catch and unusual size/speed combination give him the potential to develop into an elite-level No. 1 receiver.

There are those who disagree with the idea that Garcon could someday be a legitimate No. 1, and indeed, that may not happen, but it's just as true that he played at Division III Mount Union and because he played sparingly in 2008 as a rookie, this past season was essentially his first playing at anything close to a big-time level.

The Colts believe strongly that players take huge jumps between their first and second seasons, and in the Colts' system, receivers often need three or four years to reach their full potential. Wayne didn't have a 1,000-yard season until his fourth season and didn't make the Pro Bowl until his sixth. TE Dallas Clark didn't reach an elite level the post-season following his fourth season. An argument could be made that Garcon has made a bigger impact than Wayne did after two seasons, and in terms of athletic ability, there are few NFL receivers with more than Garcon.

One of the bigger off-season questions around the Colts has been how Gonzalez's return will affect the receiving rotation. That has been treated by many as a problem, and if so, it's an enviable one. First, it's rare to get through an NFL season uninjured at any position, and Gonzalez's return will give Indianapolis a player with experience and ability inside and outside. Mainly, what Gonzalez's return gives the Colts is a player with first-round ability who can get open and run after the catch from any of the receiver positions.

The guess here is that Wayne will start on one side with Garcon on the other, and that Gonzalez will play extensively in the slot and some on the outside. If Gonzalez cuts into anyone's time, it may be that of Collie, but given the differing strengths of each player – and given the Colts' ability historically to get playmaking weapons on the field – they likely will be able to utilize the strengths of the four.
 
Outside of Wayne, i wouldnt touch a Colts WR. Between Gonzo, Garcon, and Collie, i would say they all end up around the 600 yards and 4-5 TD's. It will be like the Pats WR's before Moss got there. I do think Gonzo is the most talented of the 3, but not enough of a gap between the 3 to make me believe he will be anywhere near 1000 yards.

 
One other thing when comparing the second seasons of Gonzalez and Garcon: Gonzalez was a polished WR out of Ohio State that spent half the time lining up in the slot against nickle backs (link ). Garcon was a raw WR out of Mount Union that spent every game lined up against a starting CB as the Right outside WR (link). I think that shows me that Garcon's second season was more impressive and he has more potential in the future.

 
The scary thing is he played at a small college and is just learning how to play at this level against elite competition. He has some sick physical skills and has huge upside. His speed is a huge advantage over Gonzalez and Collie. I think Garcon continues to improve and will put a death grip on the starting job.
Why does everyone assume this is true? For about the 87th time, Gonzalez and Garcon ran virtually the same 40 time at their respective combines - that's one of the reason the Colts took Gonzo - he was fast and had great hands. Now, it is conceivable that if Gonzo doesn't recover fully that his spped will be an issue - but this assumption (that Garcon is faster) has been floated since day one with no basis in actual fact. If (and I realize it is a big "if") Gonzo comes back from the injury without a significant decrease in speed, he and Garcon will both play. Garcon is bigger physically but Gonzo has better hands (in '08 Gonzo was top 3 in WRs in catch %).

Frankly, I don't see how anyone can predict Garcon (who is arguably the 3a or 3b behind Wayne and Clark with Gonzo being the other 3a or 3b) for more than about 750 yards, let alone 1000.

 
Based on the games I've seen Garcon has greater pad speed. I don't think anyone should really take 40 speeds as gospel for NFL speed - they are two different attributes unless a player shows that one definitely coverts to the other.

 
Has there been a case where a 1st round wr who had a starting gig got completely lost in the shuffle when other stepped in and took his role and ran with itwhile he still trying to get back at 100%? As far as Gonzales is concerned. I think this a good problem for the colts to have guys that can step in but im not somuch sure what all this means for the 3 wr's behind Wayne. Although to me Garcon is more of a deep threat and better suited on the outside than the other two.
This is a good point.I like Garcon, and am a bit of a fan, but I do believe there are too many mouths to feed here.Gonzo will be back, and after he shakes off the rust, I think he will be back to his old form. I would be inclined to predict close to 900-1000 yards for him. Assuming Wayne is good for 1300 yards receiving, this leaves about 2000 yards to be split between Garcon, collie, clark, Addai, and the rest.With that being said, how he does really depends largely on how fully recovered Gonzo is. it may take more than a year for him to get fully back to normal.if he does get to normal quickly, I would expect to see the colts go with more 3 and 4 receiver sets to try to capitalize on mismatches in the secondary because most teams dont have 4 CB's good enough to cover everyone here. so it is possible that the RB's could be the odd guys out.either way, it will be interesting to see how this situation develops and this will be an area I will watch very closely.
 
If (and I realize it is a big "if") Gonzo comes back from the injury without a significant decrease in speed, he and Garcon will both play. Garcon is bigger physically but Gonzo has better hands (in '08 Gonzo was top 3 in WRs in catch %).
Why does this continue to be brought up without any context? Yes, Garcon had more drops than anyone would have liked, but he was running different routes than Gonzalez ran in '08 and Collie ran in '09.Gonzalez's yards per reception in '08: 11.6

Collie's yards per reception in '09: 11.3

Garcon's yards per reception in '09: 16.3

 
If (and I realize it is a big "if") Gonzo comes back from the injury without a significant decrease in speed, he and Garcon will both play. Garcon is bigger physically but Gonzo has better hands (in '08 Gonzo was top 3 in WRs in catch %).
Why does this continue to be brought up without any context? Yes, Garcon had more drops than anyone would have liked, but he was running different routes than Gonzalez ran in '08 and Collie ran in '09.
Did you just answer your own question???
 
If (and I realize it is a big "if") Gonzo comes back from the injury without a significant decrease in speed, he and Garcon will both play. Garcon is bigger physically but Gonzo has better hands (in '08 Gonzo was top 3 in WRs in catch %).
Why does this continue to be brought up without any context? Yes, Garcon had more drops than anyone would have liked, but he was running different routes than Gonzalez ran in '08 and Collie ran in '09.
Did you just answer your own question???
Exactly - drops have little to do with routes. I'm not talking catch % (which Gonzo also is much better at) - I was talking hands. Catching a ball when it is catchable.
 

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