Miles Austin, WR, Dallas Cowboys (1 Viewer)

2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Miles Austin, WR, Dallas Cowboys

Player Page Link: Miles Austin Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

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[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

I think he's the real deal, and will have another great season, but I don't see him taking another step forward. Still, a legit WR1.

78 catches, 1,216 yards, 9 td's.

Austin appears to be a humble guy who appreciates what he has. I haven't heard any chirping from him about needing a new contract because of his breakout season. I haven't heard any chirping about who the #1 receiver in Dallas is with the drafting of Dez Bryant. He seems to be a guy who brings his lunchpail and goes to work. To expect an improvement on his out-of-this-world numbers from last season would seem a little outlandish but I see no reason why those numbers won't reflect his entire 2010 season.

Projections: 89rec/1300/10 for a PPR ranking of WR5

I think Tony Romo is so good that there's little risk with Austin. He's a high floor player, in my view.

http://footballguys.com/10stuart_players_milesaustin.php

I could easily see him being another Rod Smith or Joe Horn. And I have a ton of faith in Tony Romo, so that makes me have a lot of faith in Austin.

In a recent early draft someone drafted Austin at WR4 and I, at first, was dumbfounded. But then I actually looked back at what he accomplished and how he accomplished it a season ago and, now I can at least understand why someone would have the view of Austin's fantasy value. He's got an elite QB that obviously has a great rapport with him. IMHO the addition of Dez Bryant can only help him as it makes it harder for opposing defenses to scheme Austin out. Physically, Austin is a specimen and really has no holes in his game. He had a harder road to get on the field because of his pedigree, but that's all water under the bridge. Once he got his shot, he not only made the most of it, he emphatically blazed his place atop the most promising young pass catchers in the league.

I see very little reason, barring injury, to think Austin isn't going to be a compelling WR1 this year.

I just don't know.

I lucked into Austin last year in the Free Agent sweepstakes after his breakout game and so really followed him the rest of the year. He had monster games and made some amazing plays. He seems to have a ton of talent, he has a great QB throwing to him and an offense that looks likely to score a ton.

After four games of basically riding pine, he averaged 6 catches for 100 yards and 0.8 TDs per game the rest of the year. That's awesome production. He was also consistent, with a three-game rough patch (the whole Dallas offense went south weeks 10 and 11) but excellent numbers the rest of the time.

All that said, I still can't shake the feeling that there are just too many mouths to feed in Dallas. Dez Bryant and Witten will get good chunks. Jerry Jones may still insist on a lot of balls to Roy Williams in an effort to justify that trade. Felix Jones might enhance the running game.

All said and done, I am thinking 75 catches, 1150 yards, 10 TDs. Certainly not bad, but not like last year.

Miles Austin played incredibly well last season and in one of Joe Bryant's favorites really "stepped up" when the Cowboys needed someone to do just that. The Cowboys offense in general played very well last season and has added more potential contributors for 2010.

Focusing in on the Cowboy's passing attack, they passed 550 times with 347 completions 63.0% for 4,483 yards 8.2 ypa and 26 TDs. That is an incredible yards per attempt number that could be difficult to match going forward.

In 09, the targets and stats compare as follows:

WRs - 297 targets 170 catches 57.3% 2755 yards 16.2 ypc and 24 TDs

RBs - 93 targets 61 catches 65.6% 477 yards 7.8 ypc and 0 TDs

TEs - 163 targets 116 catches 71.2% 1251 yards 10.8 ypc and 2 TDs

Romo was and has been leaning hevily on the WRs. They add Dez Bryant to the mix and I expect that Roy Williams will play better in 2010 than he did last year so I anticipate more distribution of the WR targets than last season when Austin had 124, Williams 86 and Crayton 67. I think it could be more like Austin 110, Bryant 90, and Williams 80. The TEs will definitely remain involved and all three of the RBs are decent pass catchers as well.

A solid season ahead for Austin, but not in relation to his ADP, currently at 20 overall and WR 7. I doubt that he will be on any of my teams this year.

Miles Austin 110 targets 71 catches 64.5% 1136 yards 16.0 ypc and 7 TDs

Miles Austin runs like a running back once he catches the ball. Opposing DB's cringe at the though of having to take this guy down as his leg strength is outstanding. Miles Austin is a big play wide receiver and last year was just his coming out party. The Cowboys offense is built to make big plays and in 2010, there won't be a guy who will make more big plays than Miles Austin for the Dallas Cowboys.

80 receptions, 1290 yards with 14 Td's

He's the complete enigma. Even down to his name. Thank god people have stopped calling him Austin Miles.

Been on the squad for a few years... his claim to fame prior to last seasons breakout? His kickoff return for a TD vs Seattle in the infamous playoff game. Then, back to obscurity. Every year you'd hear his name crop up... but after a while, you just don't take rumors seriously. I had the opportunity to draft him in my Dynasty league last year and (regretfully) passed.

How can an organization have not known this type of talent, until it unveiled itself due to the fact that Roy Williams got injured during the Bronco's game? Had that not happened, he'd still be obscure.

That said, he did impress the hell out of me last year. But the enigma label still sticks.

Put me down for 68/1,050/7.

Austin is the real deal.

Runs great routes, good hands, tough to tackle. Add in a top notch QB in Romo and Dez Bryant to help take pressure off him, and you're looking at a real solid year. With a solid running game, Witten, Bryant and even Roy Williams, I can't see Austin challenging the upper echelon WRs like AJ or Randy Moss or Larry Fitzgerald.....Romo will have a lot of options. DAL likes to use the RBs and TEs a lot in the passing game.

82 rec, 1100 yds, 9 TD

Hell of a lot of options in Dallas is all I can say. I think it's risky to draft Austin too early.

Moonlight_Graham said:

Hell of a lot of options in Dallas is all I can say. I think it's risky to draft Austin too early.

Click to expand...

I don't think that can be understated. To put it in Fantasy terms, in a 12 team PPR redraft, you could see Romo, Austin, Bryant, Witten, Jones and Barber all go in the top 5 rounds...that would even outdo Indy in their hey-day. While that is not evident of one individual's success over another's, what it tells me is that many people feel there is a lot of value in the Dallas O, but in the end, we all know they are not going to produce at that level. They could all cannibalize each other's stats, or there could be a couple of "odd men" out.

I am never sold on a WR until they perform at top 10 level for two or more years. There are lots of guys who have had one great year and then fall back. So, I think you must factor that in when looking at Austin. I looked at his ypc for last year and for his career and they are pretty consistent, so I think it is reasonable to assume his ypc will remain comparable to last year, 16.3 ypc, and I used that as one factor. Then I looked at the game by game from last year and I threw out the early games when he wasn't used as much and I threw out those first two big games. Both are outlier data. So, I used the last 10 games as a baseline. He averaged 6 receptions a game in that span of 10 games. He scored 6 TDs, which normalizes to 10 TDs for a 16 game season.

My prediction BEFORE I factor in a deduction for first year performance and my fear that he may not repeat.

96 receptions 1564 yards 10 TDs

- 10% reduction basically because he hasn't proven that he can duplicate these numbers

Final prediction:

86 receptions 1401 9 TDs

He will fall back to earth... I hope.

Dallas is under an enormous amount of pressure this year since the Super Bowl is being hosted in Dallas. I think a lot of the hype over the rookies and young guys they have will quell some once the season unfolds, the bullets are flying, and the reality of winning football games kicks in. Romo is the key to Dallas having success. I'm sure he loves all his weapons but Miles Austin made him look good last year and he isn't going to get tossed aside for Dez Bryant right away. Roy Williams, Patrick Crayton, and Kevin Ogletree are not pushing for starting time. Witten helps take away some pass coverage as defenses must respect him too. You add in a trio of RBs that can all have their days and you end up with Miles Austin in a very sweet situation where defenses cannot lock in on him or else they pay the price. I think he will be covered one on one a lot and will continue to produce. I liked him long before he had his breakout year last year.

And what could be more Texas than a guy named Miles Austin playing for the Dallas Cowboys?

Projections: 85/1200/8Td

Solid but perhaps a step or two down in raw talent form guys like AJ, Moss, and Calvin. I think you could do far worse than locking up Miles Austin and maybe another elite WR on the 1/2 turn in redrafts this year. Very few WR can produce double digit TDs year in and year out, remember that when you make projections.

I see him as the real deal as well. He may even be at good value come draft day with everyone overrating the hell out of dez bryant.