Zach Miller, TE, Oakland Raiders (1 Viewer)

2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Zach Miller, TE, Oakland Raiders

Player Page Link: Zach Miller Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

Gets a nice boost in value with a starting caliber QB:

75 catches

920 yards

6 TD

The Oakland Zach Miller has improved statistically in each of his three seasons. The former second round pick had 44 receptions on 69 targets 63.8% for 444 yards (10.1 ypc) and 3 TDs in his rookie 07 season. In his second season, he had 56 on 86 65.1% for 778 yards (13.9 ypc) and 1 TD. Last year, he missed a game and yet still improved to 66 on 100 66.0% for 805 yards (12.2 ypc) and 3 TDs.

Even without considering the obvious expected improvement in QB play, he could be expected to sneak into the top ten TEs. I think that the QB improvement will tandem with his year to year improvement and boost him to the following:

2010 115 targets 77 recptions 67.0% for 963 yards (12.5 ypc) and 5 TDs

rzrback77 said:

The Oakland Zach Miller has improved statistically in each of his three seasons. The former second round pick had 44 receptions on 69 targets 63.8% for 444 yards (10.1 ypc) and 3 TDs in his rookie 07 season. In his second season, he had 56 on 86 65.1% for 778 yards (13.9 ypc) and 1 TD. Last year, he missed a game and yet still improved to 66 on 100 66.0% for 805 yards (12.2 ypc) and 3 TDs.Even without considering the obvious expected improvement in QB play, he could be expected to sneak into the top ten TEs. I think that the QB improvement will tandem with his year to year improvement and boost him to the following:2010 115 targets 77 recptions 67.0% for 963 yards (12.5 ypc) and 5 TDs

Click to expand...

It seems like he has pretty consistently caught 65% of his looks, with crappy QBs. Let's assume that goes up to 70%. He has 100 looks last year so a 10% increase to 110 looks seems reasonable. That would be 77 receptions. His career yards per catch is 12.2 so I'll go with that although it could be higher with a better QB.77 catches at 12.2 equals 939 yards. Tds are hard to predict but I am going to say he doubles what he did with Russell. 6 TDs.

Considering how unbelievably inaccurate Jamarcus Russel was I don't think its a stretch to expect 75% catches from him.

Cambell has also used his TE's very well in the past.

85/1050/7

Here's a guy I really like this year. I don't think people have a sense of just how gifted Miller is, because he's been playing with poor QB's. Jason Campbell is more than capable, and he likes throwing to his TE's. Add that to the fact that the Raiders still have limited options at WR (until someone steps forward), they should be in a lot of close games, and I think they'll feed Miller early and often. I'm willing to go out on a limb here and say he joins the elite this season:

81 catches, 1004 yards, 8 td's.

In the 4 last games Gradkowski played, Miller averaged 5,5 rec and 55 yards. With Campbell, he should at least be able to get more vertical, so I expect more ypr.

77 rec, 1000 yards, 6 TDs.

I think the sky's the limit for Miller.

Posititves:

He's the WR#1 on this team. His production improved each year. He has natural ability to catch a ball at it's high point and the toughness to hang on. New QB in Jason Campbell that threw 64.5% completion last year. Campbell did have a good thing going to both of this TE's last year, and always had a good connection to Cooley. Addition by subtraction in that Russell is gone, so he should not have to deal the QB shuffle game like last year. Only 1 TD last year, and you know that will only improve. He is capable of putting up elite type TE single games (8/100/2) every now and then.

Negatives:

With improvement in QB, expect more balls to be spread around. JaMarcus Russell tended to lock onto Miller and was incapable of following his progressions. Jason Campbell will be able to use all his receivers much better. Expect more/better production from WR crew, (although I am tempering expectations of this relatively raw yet talented crew). Also, remember that the Raiders and OL coach Tom Cable's first love is running the football. If they can soften the defensive front with a successful passing game, the running game will see increased work, and especially with leads, Miller's opportunities in the second half may erode.

Overall: I am going on a limb and saying he still is the not as good as TE Gates, but he's gaining on him. With improved QB play, I think he can be as good. Top ten is going to be a lock this year. In redraft, he's going to be a good value pick, since there are plenty of hyped TE's out there. I'd say his floor is 55/600/5 and his ceiling is 80/900/9.

Jamarcus sucked bad....and miller still saw flashes of being a great TE.....he looked 100% better when gradkowski was back there

and now with cambell there, the man who made cooley look like a legend....i think Miller is 1 of my top sleepers of the year

my league you need to start a TE....so between him and Carlson, those are my sleepers who can be had very late and put up Owen Daniels/Dallas Clark numbers

I think Oakland will improve this year but that improvement will lead to more rushes with the team pass attempts hovering around 500. I see Schilens emerging as the #1 receiving option with Miller as #2. That's still a great position for a TE to be but there just won't be a bunch of passing yards to be distributed.

Projection: 67rec/840/5 for a PPR ranking of TE10