Jermichael Finley, TE, Green Bay Packers (1 Viewer)

2010 Player Spotlight Series

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Thread Topic: Jermichael Finley, TE, Green Bay Packers

Player Page Link: Jermichael Finley Player Page

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Jermichael Finley came into his own last year in his second season. For the season, he played in 13 games with 71 targets (5.5 per game) and had 55 receptions (77.5 catch percentage) for 676 yards (12.3 ypc) and 5 TDs. Even more impressive was that he averaged 7.4 targets per game over the second half of the season and the playoffs. In that stretch of eight games, he had 44 catches for 526 yards (65.8 yards per game) and 4 TDs. Lastly, in a classic offensive show against Arizona in the Packer's play-off loss, he totaled 6 catches for an amazing 159 yards.

There is no doubt that he will go high in redrafts this season and he should produce stats equal to the high slots. But, there are a lot of receiving options in Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers is adept at spreading the wealth. Consider of his thirty touchdown passes a year ago, the spread:

1) Running Backs got three on 79 targets and 60 receptions

2) Wide receivers got seventeen on 325 targets and 193 receptions and there are four viable options in Jennings, Driver, Jones, and Nelson

3) Tight Ends totaled eleven, including five to Spencer Havner, five to Finley, and one to Donald Lee.

Finley presents tremendous upside, but with that outstanding game against Arizona fresh on most minds, he will likely go higher than I can afford this year. I see around ten options that should produce similar results and will be drafted later than Mr. Finley.

Jermichael Finley 110 targets 77 catches 947 yards 12.3 ypc and 6 TDs

72- 900-8tds

I don't have a projection, but just note a very interesting, well-done article on Finley from Greg Bedard in yesterday's Milwaukee Journal Sentinal. Its worth reading for those who want to assess Finley's future prospects as an NFL player. Essentially, Finley made some really stupid mistakes and showed an extremely immature personality early in his career, which certainly cost him on draft day and lead to his largely invisible rookie season. No drugs, trouble with the law or women problems, just a very immature, arrogant youthful attitude that lead him to think, for example, that he didn't have to study the playbook, stay in the dorm at training camp or make curfew, etc. Finley is a case where the cliche applies - his biggest enemy is himself. If he can get on the right track - on and off the field - he could have a huge career. It seems he is on the right track now in many respects, but there are still a few lingering red flags.

The Right Route

In the second half of last season, the Green Bay offense seemed to run through Finley which is a rare statement for a TE. However, Rodgers still was able to distribute the ball to other receivers as well. As Rodgers matures, that trend will continue making Green Bay's fantasy options above average but with none reaching elite status other than Rodgers.

Projections: 75/870/7 for a PPR ranking of TE7

I snatched up Finley last offseason for depth at TE for my Dynasty team, but tempered my enthusiasm with some realistic expectations, as I expected some growing pains. I was more than pleased with Finley's production. Finley has elite athleticism at the position, plays in a prolific offense and showed enough last season to make him a solid TE1 in most any league format. This season, I see Finley posting even better numbers, 75-80 Rec. for about 900 yards and 8-10 TDs, putting him in the 5-7 range among all TEs.

I see him at 75/975/8

He was only a part time player last year when healthy and still put up #1 TE numbers. He will be the starter this year, and will be on the field more. Barring injuries, i could easily see him contending for the #1 TE. I got frustrated as a Jennings owner last year because it almost seemed Rodgers used Finley as his #1 target. He should likely be at least the #2 target this year on an offense that will throw for more than 4000 yards and 30 TD's.

81 rec, 1040 yards, 11 TD's

Go deep said:

He was only a part time player last year when healthy and still put up #1 TE numbers. He will be the starter this year, and will be on the field more. Barring injuries, i could easily see him contending for the #1 TE. I got frustrated as a Jennings owner last year because it almost seemed Rodgers used Finley as his #1 target. He should likely be at least the #2 target this year on an offense that will throw for more than 4000 yards and 30 TD's.

81 rec, 1040 yards, 11 TD's

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Barring injury to Rodgers or Finley, I see this as the high range of Finley's floor. His ceiling is closer to 15 TDs and much more yardage if not more receptions.He's the #1 option on one of the most explosive offenses in the league and is a TE. And he fills that role in the redzone not just between the 20s. That is extremely valuable in fantasy football.

Major red flag though IMO is his prior immaturity. No telling when that might creep up again. Hard to take a guy like that early and ahead of proven vets like Clark and Gates, but the upside will make some people crazy for him I think. I might even be one of them.

LawFitz said:

Go deep said:

He was only a part time player last year when healthy and still put up #1 TE numbers. He will be the starter this year, and will be on the field more. Barring injuries, i could easily see him contending for the #1 TE. I got frustrated as a Jennings owner last year because it almost seemed Rodgers used Finley as his #1 target. He should likely be at least the #2 target this year on an offense that will throw for more than 4000 yards and 30 TD's.

81 rec, 1040 yards, 11 TD's

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Barring injury to Rodgers or Finley, I see this as the high range of Finley's floor. His ceiling is closer to 15 TDs and much more yardage if not more receptions.

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So Finley's floor is one of the best years ever for a TE. I like the guy but I dunno, I'd put him somewhere around 65, 840, 7 TDs. Now he could bust out and put up Antonio Gates in his prime type numbers, but I don't think that's a probability.

LawFitz said:

Go deep said:

He was only a part time player last year when healthy and still put up #1 TE numbers. He will be the starter this year, and will be on the field more. Barring injuries, i could easily see him contending for the #1 TE. I got frustrated as a Jennings owner last year because it almost seemed Rodgers used Finley as his #1 target. He should likely be at least the #2 target this year on an offense that will throw for more than 4000 yards and 30 TD's.

81 rec, 1040 yards, 11 TD's

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Barring injury to Rodgers or Finley, I see this as the high range of Finley's floor. His ceiling is closer to 15 TDs and much more yardage if not more receptions.

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Temper your enthusiasm. No TE in the history of the NFL has ever gotten more than 13 TDs in a single season.

SSOG said:

LawFitz said:

Go deep said:

He was only a part time player last year when healthy and still put up #1 TE numbers. He will be the starter this year, and will be on the field more. Barring injuries, i could easily see him contending for the #1 TE. I got frustrated as a Jennings owner last year because it almost seemed Rodgers used Finley as his #1 target. He should likely be at least the #2 target this year on an offense that will throw for more than 4000 yards and 30 TD's.

81 rec, 1040 yards, 11 TD's

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Barring injury to Rodgers or Finley, I see this as the high range of Finley's floor. His ceiling is closer to 15 TDs and much more yardage if not more receptions.

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Temper your enthusiasm. No TE in the history of the NFL has ever gotten more than 13 TDs in a single season.

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Very fair. I just see this guy as a major mismatch in an awesome situation overall. And VD getting 13 TDs last year I think affected my perception. I'm much higher on Finley over VD - primarly b/c of Rodgers.

finito said:

I like the guy but I dunno, I'd put him somewhere around 65, 840, 7 TDs. Now he could bust out and put up Antonio Gates in his prime type numbers, but I don't think that's a probability.

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Here are the probabilities as I see them. Either he has a major breakout season or he flops due to injury or lack of good off the field habits.The major break out season has at least a 50% probability with the floor being those numbers.The injury probability to Finley or Rodgers is fairly high from week to week in terms of small stuff but in terms of major season-ending stuff I'll give it a decent probability of 15-20% for at least one of them to go down in a major way.Then there's the immaturity. That's hard to quantify really b/c there's so much we don't know. What we do know is that he was late for meetings and missed curfew as recently as last year. That may be no issue at all or a may be the fin of a shark in the water. Given his past as a guide I give this guy a very legit 30% chance of busting off the field and it leading to a dumper on the field. Money, fame and success are very hard to handle for some people. But yeah, my projection for him if injury is avoided and he can dedicate himself/stay out of trouble is stellar. The GB offense is a juggernaut and he's their best receiving option.

that same article also contains a statement by Finley relating the fact that his knee still has not recovered from the injury he received last year. another reason to temper your enthusiasm and expectations.

65-850-7

Work ethic, motivation, maturity issues. Also a lot of other guys on the roster will be shagging balls.

70/780/7

And the thing about him is he's very much a feast or famine guy. No good indicator when he will perform. You take your chances and ride out the good with the bad weeks. Overrated for what you guys are hyping his value to be.

Finley is in line for a major breakout. He is heavily targeted on a top tier passing offense with a great QB. He is an amazing athlete for a TE and presents major matchup problems. He cannot be consistently doubled becasue of the talent of the other offensive skill players.

Top 3 TE with as much or more upside than any TE.

78 - 950 - 10

81 - 950 - 8. Elite.

rzrback77 said:

Jermichael Finley came into his own last year in his second season. For the season, he played in 13 games with 71 targets (5.5 per game) and had 55 receptions (77.5 catch percentage) for 676 yards (12.3 ypc) and 5 TDs. Even more impressive was that he averaged 7.4 targets per game over the second half of the season and the playoffs. In that stretch of eight games, he had 44 catches for 526 yards (65.8 yards per game) and 4 TDs. Lastly, in a classic offensive show against Arizona in the Packer's play-off loss, he totaled 6 catches for an amazing 159 yards.There is no doubt that he will go high in redrafts this season and he should produce stats equal to the high slots. But, there are a lot of receiving options in Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers is adept at spreading the wealth. Consider of his thirty touchdown passes a year ago, the spread:1) Running Backs got three on 79 targets and 60 receptions2) Wide receivers got seventeen on 325 targets and 193 receptions and there are four viable options in Jennings, Driver, Jones, and Nelson3) Tight Ends totaled eleven, including five to Spencer Havner, five to Finley, and one to Donald Lee.Finley presents tremendous upside, but with that outstanding game against Arizona fresh on most minds, he will likely go higher than I can afford this year. I see around ten options that should produce similar results and will be drafted later than Mr. Finley.Jermichael Finley 110 targets 77 catches 947 yards 12.3 ypc and 6 TDs

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as a JF and Witten owner, I'll take your projections in a NY Minute and put Witten on the trading block..

Jermichael Finley Will Be the Best and He Knows It

From the NY Times Fifth Down Blog -

May 18, 2010, 7:00 am

Jermichael Finley Will Be the Best, and He Knows It

By ANDY BENOIT

Jermichael Finley is going to be the best tight end in football.

Not eventually — now. This season. It seems so obvious that, while making this prediction, you almost feel as if you’re missing something. Why isn’t everyone predicting this?

The evidence was building last season, and the revelation came in the wild-card playoff shootout between the Packers and the Cardinals in January. Finley had six catches for a franchise-playoff-record 159 yards. Cardinals safety Adrian Wilson said of Finley, who was then 22 years old: “He’s very comparable to Antonio Gates. Hell of a player. He can do it all.”

It may sound ludicrous, but Finley is actually better than Gates – at least athletically. Finley, a third-round pick from Texas, is taller (at 6-5), longer, faster and more agile than the Chargers’ Gates, a six-time Pro Bowler. Like Gates, he has uncanny body control and ball-adjustment skills. In his last eight games last season, counting the playoff loss, he had 44 catches for 575 yards and 4 touchdowns.

Still, to say that a third-year pro with a reputation for immaturity and only 12 starts will be the best player at his position seems overzealous. When you get Finley on the phone, as I did recently, you immediately share your opinion, then say, “Am I smart or am I crazy?”

You’re half-hoping he says crazy. If he does, he’ll have to explain why. That will mean plenty of quotable phrases about working hard, aspiring to improve and overcoming challenges. More important, it will allow you to ride the fence. It will be the green light to write an article that projects Finley not as the best tight end in 2010, but rather as “potentially the best tight end.” It’s safer.

Problem is, Finley doesn’t bail you out.

“I think you’re a genius, to tell you the truth,” he said.

Well, what about the effect of that kind of hype? Does the expectation of being the best tight end in football add undue pressure?

“I don’t think it adds pressure whatsoever,” he said. Finley casually mentions that his speed creates mismatches against linebackers. He discusses the importance of his off-season regimen, which now includes boxing (a trend in the N.F.L.). He cites blocking as the element of his game needing the most improvement. He talks about a big strength, his hands. His tone isn’t boastful, brash – just confident.

Finley’s back story is not unlike those of other tight ends. He was a standout basketball player growing up. He entered Texas as a wide receiver. When he was moved to tight end, he had a few reservations about blocking. But coaches quickly asserted that, given his athleticism, the tight end position presented a special opportunity.

“With Jermichael, we did a lot of different things,” said Bruce Chambers, the Longhorns’ tight ends coach, in a recent phone interview. “We flexed him out – a lot like they’re doing with him now in Green Bay. He spent a lot of time in the wide receiver two-point stance. The only difference was, instead of running his routes on corners, he ran his routes on linebackers and safeties. He became very special when he moved inside. Best thing that ever happened to him, in my opinion.”

The only potholes on Finley’s path have been off the field. His immaturity has been well documented – most recently in an article by The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Greg Bedard, in which Finley spoke about drama with agents, tardiness for meetings, broken curfews (including one the night before the playoff loss in Arizona) and youthful cockiness.

To the Packers’ relief, those problems seem to be easing. Living in Green Bay with a wife and 2-year-old son has a way of shepherding a man out of the fast lane. As Finley said, “If you get in trouble, it’s because you’re looking for it.”

As long as he doesn’t look, Jermichael Finley will be the N.F.L.’s best tight end in 2010.

Andy Benoit is the founder of NFLTouchdown.com.

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pretty bold statement there...

Reading some of the projections in this thread, I think that If I owned Finley and had another solid TE behind him, I'd be shopping Finley a little bit… looking for an owner thinking he is going to go for 1000 and 10 this year. -I'm not saying those type of numbers are impossible, as the guy has a lot of talent and a great QB, but those numbers simply aren't probable, imo.

mlball77 said:

Reading some of the projections in this thread, I think that If I owned Finley and had another solid TE behind him, I'd be shopping Finley a little bit… looking for an owner thinking he is going to go for 1000 and 10 this year. -I'm not saying those type of numbers are impossible, as the guy has a lot of talent and a great QB, but those numbers simply aren't probable, imo.

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In the first 6 games of 2009, he avereaged 2.83 catches/games for 260 yards and 1 TD. After coming back, over the final 8 games (the 6 regular season and two playoff games) he averaged 6 catches/game for 575 yards and 4 TDs. If you presume that the second half of 2009 is more likely the way he will be used in 2010 (and every indication is that it is) that would conservatively pencil out to about 90 catches for 1000 yards and 8 TDs - which is what I would project him at, as I don't presume injury.

DoubleG said:

mlball77 said:

Reading some of the projections in this thread, I think that If I owned Finley and had another solid TE behind him, I'd be shopping Finley a little bit… looking for an owner thinking he is going to go for 1000 and 10 this year. -I'm not saying those type of numbers are impossible, as the guy has a lot of talent and a great QB, but those numbers simply aren't probable, imo.

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In the first 6 games of 2009, he avereaged 2.83 catches/games for 260 yards and 1 TD. After coming back, over the final 8 games (the 6 regular season and two playoff games) he averaged 6 catches/game for 575 yards and 4 TDs. If you presume that the second half of 2009 is more likely the way he will be used in 2010 (and every indication is that it is) that would conservatively pencil out to about 90 catches for 1000 yards and 8 TDs - which is what I would project him at, as I don't presume injury.

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I like him a lot, but don't feel taking that data set to project his conservative numbers is necessarily a good approach, particularly when his single highest receiving yardage game came in the one playoff game vs ARI (which was a major shoot out as well, 96 pts scored by the two teams). I simply think people expecting 1000 and 10 are expecting too much. I wouldn't say his upside isn't in that ballpark (or maybe even a touch higher in yds), but that's not what I would project him at.

He needs to keep his partying ways in check:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writ.../ranking/3.html

Quote of the Week II

"I want fans to feel they can trust me and believe in me. The young, immature Finley, I thought he was foolish. And the new Finley, I think is going to do the work, do what he's supposed to do and be that player the Packers know I can be and all the fans out there too.''

-- Green Bay tight end Jermichael Finley, in a revealing profile by Greg Bedard in Sunday's Milwaukee Journal.

Good reporting by Bedard, who discovered that in the past year Finley skipped out of training camp to sleep in his own bed consistently. The tight end missed curfew the night before Green Bay's playoff game at Arizona, changed agents and then changed back, partied so hard in Texas this offseason that his marriage was endangered and now has thrown himself on the mercy of the coaching staff and front office of the Packers, determined to prove he'll be good and responsible. When Finley's right, there aren't three tight ends in football better than him.

80 catches, 900 yards and 8 TDs is my current projections

DoubleG said:

mlball77 said:

Reading some of the projections in this thread, I think that If I owned Finley and had another solid TE behind him, I'd be shopping Finley a little bit… looking for an owner thinking he is going to go for 1000 and 10 this year. -I'm not saying those type of numbers are impossible, as the guy has a lot of talent and a great QB, but those numbers simply aren't probable, imo.

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In the first 6 games of 2009, he avereaged 2.83 catches/games for 260 yards and 1 TD. After coming back, over the final 8 games (the 6 regular season and two playoff games) he averaged 6 catches/game for 575 yards and 4 TDs. If you presume that the second half of 2009 is more likely the way he will be used in 2010 (and every indication is that it is) that would conservatively pencil out to about 90 catches for 1000 yards and 8 TDs - which is what I would project him at, as I don't presume injury.

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There's nothing conservative about projecting a TE who has scored 111 fantasy points in his entire career to suddenly score 148 fantasy points in one year.

SSOG said:

DoubleG said:

mlball77 said:

Reading some of the projections in this thread, I think that If I owned Finley and had another solid TE behind him, I'd be shopping Finley a little bit… looking for an owner thinking he is going to go for 1000 and 10 this year. -I'm not saying those type of numbers are impossible, as the guy has a lot of talent and a great QB, but those numbers simply aren't probable, imo.

Click to expand...

In the first 6 games of 2009, he avereaged 2.83 catches/games for 260 yards and 1 TD. After coming back, over the final 8 games (the 6 regular season and two playoff games) he averaged 6 catches/game for 575 yards and 4 TDs. If you presume that the second half of 2009 is more likely the way he will be used in 2010 (and every indication is that it is) that would conservatively pencil out to about 90 catches for 1000 yards and 8 TDs - which is what I would project him at, as I don't presume injury.

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There's nothing conservative about projecting a TE who has scored 111 fantasy points in his entire career to suddenly score 148 fantasy points in one year.

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Hes only 23, so his career stats dont mean too much. I probably wouldnt call it conservative, but i dont think it is crazy to do so. I have his low side(barring injury) at 600 and 4, and his upside at 1250 and 14, so 1000 and 8 could be considered conservative.

If he can keep up the sure hands, he'll be a favorite of Rodgers. Green Bay's WRs had a disappointing number of dropped passes last year, and I don't see how that's going to change, expect with a change of focus onto Finley.

Go deep said:

Hes only 23, so his career stats dont mean too much. I probably wouldnt call it conservative, but i dont think it is crazy to do so. I have his low side(barring injury) at 600 and 4, and his upside at 1250 and 14, so 1000 and 8 could be considered conservative.

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Two TEs in the entire history of the NFL have posted 1250 receiving yards (Winslow Sr. had 1290 in 1980, and Gonzo had 1258 in 2004). Only 5 TEs have even topped 1200 yards (Winslow and Gonzo, plus Christensen, Jackie Smith, and Gonzo again). If you combined Shannon Sharpe, Ozzie Newsome, Jason Witten, Antonio Gates, Dallas Clark, and Mike Ditka into a single player, his career high in receiving yardage would be 1157. And, of course, as I already mentioned... no TE in NFL history has ever scored 14 TDs. Finley's "upside" would equate to 209 fantasy points, which would be 6% better than the best fantasy season by a TE in the history of the NFL (Christensen's 1247/12 in 1983). To put that into perspective... it'd be like saying Michael Crabtree's ceiling was 1959 yards and 16 TDs (6% better than Jerry Rice's 1995 season), or that Beanie Wells' ceiling was 2462 yards and 33 TDs (6% better than Tomlinson's 2006).Some of the numbers being thrown around in this thread (and, moreover, been labeled "conservative") are not only aggressive, they're unrealistic. More than unrealistic, they're wholly out of whack with the long and storied history of the TE position in the NFL. I don't think people really understand some of the numbers they're so casually tossing out. They're essentially saying that a 23 year old guy with 700 career yards and a nice 8-game stretch is perfectly capable of absolutely DEMOLISHING the best seasons ever posted by Tony Gonzalez, Shannon Sharpe, Dallas Clark, Jason Witten, Antonio Gates, Mike Ditka, Ozzie Newsome, Kellen Winslow Sr., Kellen Winslow Jr., Dallas Clark, Ben Coates, Wesley Walls, Todd Christensen, and every other All Pro tight end in the entire history of the National Football League.

if it happened once, it can happen again... quit raining on the parade.

Jermichael Finley looks like an excellent sell:

He was only the 10th most targetted TE in the last 7 weeks of the regular season, so it's not like he'll get more targets than most other TEs. And allthough he is in a explosive offense, there a lot of mouths to feed. Let others take him in round 5-6, and I'll wait for Zach Miller or Schiancoe in the later rounds. He was amazing against Arizona, but let's not go overboard.

I say 70 rec, 855 y, and 7 tds. Remember he will get more defensive attention this year as well.

Thomsen said:

Jermichael Finley looks like an excellent sell:He was only the 10th most targetted TE in the last 7 weeks of the regular season, so it's not like he'll get more targets than most other TEs. And allthough he is in a explosive offense, there a lot of mouths to feed. Let others take him in round 5-6, and I'll wait for Zach Miller or Schiancoe in the later rounds. He was amazing against Arizona, but let's not go overboard. I say 70 rec, 855 y, and 7 tds. Remember he will get more defensive attention this year as well.

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I am kinda thinking he is a sell. I have him and Vernon Davis and am shopping Finley, but haven't had any takers yet.

From a fantasy acquisition perspective, it seems likely there will be someone in most every league who will think Finley is the second coming, so it will be hard to draft/buy him except at a premium.

From a talent persepctive, he looks awfully good.

From a team situation perspective, he looks awfully good.

From a risk perspective, guys who could easily end up on police blotters, and draw league/team suspensions, you have got to temper your enthusiam.

I could see 75 catches, 1000 yards, and 8 TDs. But I'd factor in a 20% risk discount based on possibility of immature idiocy.

SSOG said:

Go deep said:

Hes only 23, so his career stats dont mean too much. I probably wouldnt call it conservative, but i dont think it is crazy to do so. I have his low side(barring injury) at 600 and 4, and his upside at 1250 and 14, so 1000 and 8 could be considered conservative.

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Two TEs in the entire history of the NFL have posted 1250 receiving yards (Winslow Sr. had 1290 in 1980, and Gonzo had 1258 in 2004). Only 5 TEs have even topped 1200 yards (Winslow and Gonzo, plus Christensen, Jackie Smith, and Gonzo again). If you combined Shannon Sharpe, Ozzie Newsome, Jason Witten, Antonio Gates, Dallas Clark, and Mike Ditka into a single player, his career high in receiving yardage would be 1157. And, of course, as I already mentioned... no TE in NFL history has ever scored 14 TDs. Finley's "upside" would equate to 209 fantasy points, which would be 6% better than the best fantasy season by a TE in the history of the NFL (Christensen's 1247/12 in 1983). To put that into perspective... it'd be like saying Michael Crabtree's ceiling was 1959 yards and 16 TDs (6% better than Jerry Rice's 1995 season), or that Beanie Wells' ceiling was 2462 yards and 33 TDs (6% better than Tomlinson's 2006).Some of the numbers being thrown around in this thread (and, moreover, been labeled "conservative") are not only aggressive, they're unrealistic. More than unrealistic, they're wholly out of whack with the long and storied history of the TE position in the NFL. I don't think people really understand some of the numbers they're so casually tossing out. They're essentially saying that a 23 year old guy with 700 career yards and a nice 8-game stretch is perfectly capable of absolutely DEMOLISHING the best seasons ever posted by Tony Gonzalez, Shannon Sharpe, Dallas Clark, Jason Witten, Antonio Gates, Mike Ditka, Ozzie Newsome, Kellen Winslow Sr., Kellen Winslow Jr., Dallas Clark, Ben Coates, Wesley Walls, Todd Christensen, and every other All Pro tight end in the entire history of the National Football League.

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My use of the term "conservative" was from the stand point of the fact that I was using his last 8 games and rounding down (his last 8 games of '09 pencilled out to 16 would have been 96-1150-8 so I went with 90-1000-8).Secondly, while I understand your point in regards to history, the fact is TE were simply not the type of players used in the ways they are today. They were not used as prominantly as pass catching weapons in the pass-heavy NFL of 2010 the way they were in the days of Ditka, Newsome et.al. And most of them were not 6' 5" 250 lbs. If you look at body type, and the way he is used in the offense, a comparison to Gates is probably more applicable than any comparison to Todd Christensen or Wesley Walls. Most agree that Rodgers is a top QB in the NFL. Finely is becoming his favorite target - in an offense that likes to throw the ball, in a league that has become dominated by the passing game. 90-1000-8 would likely land him at about TE4 or 5 (at least that's where he would have landed if he had put up those number last year in non-PPR). I don't think considering Finley a top 5 TE for 2010 is that "aggressive".

ScottyFargo said:

If he can keep up the sure hands, he'll be a favorite of Rodgers. Green Bay's WRs had a disappointing number of dropped passes last year, and I don't see how that's going to change, expect with a change of focus onto Finley.

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You don't see how several WRs who have not had drop problems would change?Jennings...maybe not. He has had some issues.Jones...they raved about him his rookie year and how he catches the ball and how good his hands are.Driver? Again...do you think a usual sure handed guy who had a bad year will just repeat the bad year with his hands? its one thing for him to slow down...but get worse at just catching? Not seeing it.That said....and I have said this before...people keep wondering if Jones or Nelson will be taking over from Driver...I think those balls will go more to Finley. Look at last year...Driver started out on fire...but when Finley got hot...Driver's catches went down. Might just be coincidence...but I feel Finley will be that go to guy...Rodgers guy to find when he needs to get rid of it quick or needs the quick yards.

DoubleG said:

SSOG said:

Go deep said:

Hes only 23, so his career stats dont mean too much. I probably wouldnt call it conservative, but i dont think it is crazy to do so. I have his low side(barring injury) at 600 and 4, and his upside at 1250 and 14, so 1000 and 8 could be considered conservative.

Click to expand...

Two TEs in the entire history of the NFL have posted 1250 receiving yards (Winslow Sr. had 1290 in 1980, and Gonzo had 1258 in 2004). Only 5 TEs have even topped 1200 yards (Winslow and Gonzo, plus Christensen, Jackie Smith, and Gonzo again). If you combined Shannon Sharpe, Ozzie Newsome, Jason Witten, Antonio Gates, Dallas Clark, and Mike Ditka into a single player, his career high in receiving yardage would be 1157. And, of course, as I already mentioned... no TE in NFL history has ever scored 14 TDs. Finley's "upside" would equate to 209 fantasy points, which would be 6% better than the best fantasy season by a TE in the history of the NFL (Christensen's 1247/12 in 1983). To put that into perspective... it'd be like saying Michael Crabtree's ceiling was 1959 yards and 16 TDs (6% better than Jerry Rice's 1995 season), or that Beanie Wells' ceiling was 2462 yards and 33 TDs (6% better than Tomlinson's 2006).Some of the numbers being thrown around in this thread (and, moreover, been labeled "conservative") are not only aggressive, they're unrealistic. More than unrealistic, they're wholly out of whack with the long and storied history of the TE position in the NFL. I don't think people really understand some of the numbers they're so casually tossing out. They're essentially saying that a 23 year old guy with 700 career yards and a nice 8-game stretch is perfectly capable of absolutely DEMOLISHING the best seasons ever posted by Tony Gonzalez, Shannon Sharpe, Dallas Clark, Jason Witten, Antonio Gates, Mike Ditka, Ozzie Newsome, Kellen Winslow Sr., Kellen Winslow Jr., Dallas Clark, Ben Coates, Wesley Walls, Todd Christensen, and every other All Pro tight end in the entire history of the National Football League.

Click to expand...

My use of the term "conservative" was from the stand point of the fact that I was using his last 8 games and rounding down (his last 8 games of '09 pencilled out to 16 would have been 96-1150-8 so I went with 90-1000-8).Secondly, while I understand your point in regards to history, the fact is TE were simply not the type of players used in the ways they are today. They were not used as prominantly as pass catching weapons in the pass-heavy NFL of 2010 the way they were in the days of Ditka, Newsome et.al. And most of them were not 6' 5" 250 lbs. If you look at body type, and the way he is used in the offense, a comparison to Gates is probably more applicable than any comparison to Todd Christensen or Wesley Walls.

Most agree that Rodgers is a top QB in the NFL. Finely is becoming his favorite target - in an offense that likes to throw the ball, in a league that has become dominated by the passing game. 90-1000-8 would likely land him at about TE4 or 5 (at least that's where he would have landed if he had put up those number last year in non-PPR). I don't think considering Finley a top 5 TE for 2010 is that "aggressive".

Click to expand...

Top 5 is conservative.

SSOG said:

Go deep said:

Hes only 23, so his career stats dont mean too much. I probably wouldnt call it conservative, but i dont think it is crazy to do so. I have his low side(barring injury) at 600 and 4, and his upside at 1250 and 14, so 1000 and 8 could be considered conservative.

Click to expand...

Two TEs in the entire history of the NFL have posted 1250 receiving yards (Winslow Sr. had 1290 in 1980, and Gonzo had 1258 in 2004). Only 5 TEs have even topped 1200 yards (Winslow and Gonzo, plus Christensen, Jackie Smith, and Gonzo again). If you combined Shannon Sharpe, Ozzie Newsome, Jason Witten, Antonio Gates, Dallas Clark, and Mike Ditka into a single player, his career high in receiving yardage would be 1157. And, of course, as I already mentioned... no TE in NFL history has ever scored 14 TDs. Finley's "upside" would equate to 209 fantasy points, which would be 6% better than the best fantasy season by a TE in the history of the NFL (Christensen's 1247/12 in 1983). To put that into perspective... it'd be like saying Michael Crabtree's ceiling was 1959 yards and 16 TDs (6% better than Jerry Rice's 1995 season), or that Beanie Wells' ceiling was 2462 yards and 33 TDs (6% better than Tomlinson's 2006).Some of the numbers being thrown around in this thread (and, moreover, been labeled "conservative") are not only aggressive, they're unrealistic. More than unrealistic, they're wholly out of whack with the long and storied history of the TE position in the NFL. I don't think people really understand some of the numbers they're so casually tossing out. They're essentially saying that a 23 year old guy with 700 career yards and a nice 8-game stretch is perfectly capable of absolutely DEMOLISHING the best seasons ever posted by Tony Gonzalez, Shannon Sharpe, Dallas Clark, Jason Witten, Antonio Gates, Mike Ditka, Ozzie Newsome, Kellen Winslow Sr., Kellen Winslow Jr., Dallas Clark, Ben Coates, Wesley Walls, Todd Christensen, and every other All Pro tight end in the entire history of the National Football League.

Click to expand...

The 1250 was never thrown around as conservative.And yes...Finley is capable of beating some of those best seasons.Realize that last year's Packer offense, even with Rodgers taking that many sacks and the problems they had on the Oline...scored more points than any other Packer offense in the history of that team.Now Rodgers has another year of experience...as does Finley and Jennings and Jones and Nelson. The line should start out intact and healthy. Tell me why a guy with the talent of Finley is not capable of having a season like that?

Are we projecting Jerry Rice stats for the 1991 season here? The Kool Aid is flowing in this thread.

Thomsen said:

Jermichael Finley looks like an excellent sell:He was only the 10th most targetted TE in the last 7 weeks of the regular season, so it's not like he'll get more targets than most other TEs. And allthough he is in a explosive offense, there a lot of mouths to feed. Let others take him in round 5-6, and I'll wait for Zach Miller or Schiancoe in the later rounds. He was amazing against Arizona, but let's not go overboard. I say 70 rec, 855 y, and 7 tds. Remember he will get more defensive attention this year as well.

Click to expand...

Reasonable points, but according to the data dominator Finley was the 7th most targeted TE from weeks 11-17. But your larger point stands, that Finley might be overvalued by the people that love him and there might be more difference between his perceived value than his actual value.That being said, the kool aid is delicious and refreshing. OH YEAH!

Lott said:

Thomsen said:

Jermichael Finley looks like an excellent sell:He was only the 10th most targetted TE in the last 7 weeks of the regular season, so it's not like he'll get more targets than most other TEs. And allthough he is in a explosive offense, there a lot of mouths to feed. Let others take him in round 5-6, and I'll wait for Zach Miller or Schiancoe in the later rounds. He was amazing against Arizona, but let's not go overboard. I say 70 rec, 855 y, and 7 tds. Remember he will get more defensive attention this year as well.

Click to expand...

Reasonable points, but according to the data dominator Finley was the 7th most targeted TE from weeks 11-17. But your larger point stands, that Finley might be overvalued by the people that love him and there might be more difference between his perceived value than his actual value.That being said, the kool aid is delicious and refreshing. OH YEAH!

Click to expand...

Finley is a definite sell. The problem is the offers I am receiving for him, I will just hang onto him. It boils down to the fact he is a TE and you aren't going to get a whole lot for him so I will hang on and hope he puts the numbers being thrown out around here.

Multiple Scores said:

The Kool Aid is flowing in this thread.

Click to expand...

Its the most tasty this time of year

Thomsen said:

He was only the 10th most targetted TE in the last 7 weeks of the regular season, so it's not like he'll get more targets than most other TEs.

Click to expand...

He was actually the 7th most targeted TE in the last 7 weeks of the regular season.

snellman said:

Finley is a definite sell. The problem is the offers I am receiving for him, I will just hang onto him. It boils down to the fact he is a TE and you aren't going to get a whole lot for him so I will hang on and hope he puts the numbers being thrown out around here.

Click to expand...

This is the problem with the concept of selling Finley high... what do you sell him for?Nobody is giving up a top TE PLUS something useful. You probably won't get anything better than a middle of the road WR2 or RB3 straight up for Finley. If that is the case, did you help yourself? Maybe if you already have a great TE and Finley is extra, but a TE just doesn't fetch enough in trades.So unless you have a foolish owner willing to give up too much, the possibility of Finley being a monster makes him more useful to keep than to trade. Selling high is great and all, until the sold asset outperforms expectations... 5 TEs had over 950 yards last year... those that are saying the projections of Finley getting 1000 yards are in any way far-fetched are not being realistic. I understand the argument against 1250 yards and 14+ TDs, but 1000/10 is not at all unrealistic, imo.

Lott said:

snellman said:

Finley is a definite sell. The problem is the offers I am receiving for him, I will just hang onto him. It boils down to the fact he is a TE and you aren't going to get a whole lot for him so I will hang on and hope he puts the numbers being thrown out around here.

Click to expand...

This is the problem with the concept of selling Finley high... what do you sell him for?Nobody is giving up a top TE PLUS something useful. You probably won't get anything better than a middle of the road WR2 or RB3 straight up for Finley. If that is the case, did you help yourself? Maybe if you already have a great TE and Finley is extra, but a TE just doesn't fetch enough in trades.So unless you have a foolish owner willing to give up too much, the possibility of Finley being a monster makes him more useful to keep than to trade. Selling high is great and all, until the sold asset outperforms expectations... 5 TEs had over 950 yards last year... those that are saying the projections of Finley getting 1000 yards are in any way far-fetched are not being realistic. I understand the argument against 1250 yards and 14+ TDs, but 1000/10 is not at all unrealistic, imo.

Click to expand...

I made a Finly trade in February.I dealt Felix and Desean for Finley and Crabtree.I was deep at RB anyways, wanted a cornerstone TE so I didn't have to worry about that spot for years.

DoubleG said:

My use of the term "conservative" was from the stand point of the fact that I was using his last 8 games and rounding down (his last 8 games of '09 pencilled out to 16 would have been 96-1150-8 so I went with 90-1000-8).Secondly, while I understand your point in regards to history, the fact is TE were simply not the type of players used in the ways they are today. They were not used as prominantly as pass catching weapons in the pass-heavy NFL of 2010 the way they were in the days of Ditka, Newsome et.al. And most of them were not 6' 5" 250 lbs. If you look at body type, and the way he is used in the offense, a comparison to Gates is probably more applicable than any comparison to Todd Christensen or Wesley Walls. Most agree that Rodgers is a top QB in the NFL. Finely is becoming his favorite target - in an offense that likes to throw the ball, in a league that has become dominated by the passing game. 90-1000-8 would likely land him at about TE4 or 5 (at least that's where he would have landed if he had put up those number last year in non-PPR). I don't think considering Finley a top 5 TE for 2010 is that "aggressive".

Click to expand...

First off, even if you round down, it's never "conservative" to take a player's production over a hot stretch and project that over a full season. I mean, if I extrapolated Jamaal Charles' last 8 games over a full season, I'd get 2252 yards and 14 TDs. Let's say I rounded down and projected Charles for 2,000 yards and 14 TDs, instead. Would you call that a conservative projection? Doing the same thing for Jerome Harrison's last 3 games gets me 3667 yards and 27 TDs. Even if I rounded way down and projected him to 3,000 yards and 25 TDs, would you call that a "conservative" approach?The simple fact is that a player's true ability is never as high as it appears during a hot streak, so using a hot streak as a starting point for a projection is folly. I know that it seems very intuitive to place additional emphasis on a hot streak that happened to end the season rather than one that happened at the beginning or in the middle of the season. It makes sense- we can say that either something finally "clicked", or a team started giving a player reps and he ran away with them, or that he "is becoming a favorite target", or we can even tell ourselves that end-of-season data is more recent than beginning-of-season data and the more recent the data, the greater it's value. The problem is that, while that narrative seems perfectly plausible, it's not statistically supported. I've seen multiple studies looking at hot streaks to end a season (for fantasy players as well as for entire teams), and they pretty much all agree that end-of-season data holds no more predictive power than entire-season data.Second, saying that Finley isn't built or used like the TEs of the 1980s is interesting, since Kellen Winslow Sr. and Todd Christensen are the only two TEs in history who have come within 30 points of what you casually termed as Finley's upside. Comparing Finley to his modern contemporaries only makes such an upside all the more implausible. Tony Gonzalez, Jason Witten, Antonio Gates, and Shannon Sharpe are all contemporaries of or prototypes for Jermichael Finley. Those four players have combined for an amazing 13 first team AP All Pro nods, including an absurd 12 of the last 14 (the only exceptions are Shockey in 2002 and Dallas Clark in 2009). Those four luminaries are the undisputed gold standard for modern TE studhood, and all four are likely future Hall of Famers. And the best season any of them has had in his entire career was 174 fantasy points (Gonzo's 93/1203/9 in 2000 and Gates' 81/964/13 in 2004). You said that Finley's upside was 209 points, more than TWENTY PERCENT HIGHER (35 fantasy points) than the best season produced by the guys who hold 12 of the last 14 first team AP All Pro awards. You are radically, radically, radically overestimating Finley's upside. In fact, your "conservative" estimate is far closer to Finley's actual upside than your upside estimate.Third, calling Finley "top 5" is mildly aggressive, since the kid's never ranked in the top 12 in his career. Still, I think "top 5" is perfectly reasonable. The problem is that the numbers you posted aren't "top 5" numbers, they're "top 2" numbers. Over the last 5 years, those numbers would have ranked Finley 4th, 2nd, 3rd, 1st, and 2nd in the league (average rank = 2.4). The average season by TE5 over that span was 61/738/7. No TE5 over that span has topped 900 receiving yards. Only one has topped 7 TDs (Dallas Clark, who in 2007 had 616 yards and 11 scores). Only 5 times in the last 5 years has a TE- any TE at all- topped the 90 reception plateau.

sho nuff said:

Tell me why a guy with the talent of Finley is not capable of having a season like that?

Click to expand...

For starters, how about the fact that Tony Gonzelez, the most talented receiving TE to ever lace up his cleats, never had a season like that. Neither did Shannon Sharpe, the second most talented receiving TE to ever lace up his cleats. Neither did Antonio Gates. Neither did Jason Witten. Neither did Dallas Clark. Neither did anyone. It's not like the TE position was just invented 5 years ago, or that Jermichael Finley is the first player at the position who could catch. There's a lot of history behind the TE position. In order for Finley to be capable of putting up numbers 20% better than the best numbers put up by the best players in the history of the position, he would either need to revolutionize the position, or else be the single greatest receiver to ever play the position by a substantial margin. Personally, I'd consider either prospect to be a long shot.

Frank Costanza said:

Thomsen said:

He was only the 10th most targetted TE in the last 7 weeks of the regular season, so it's not like he'll get more targets than most other TEs.

Click to expand...

He was actually the 7th most targeted TE in the last 7 weeks of the regular season.

Click to expand...

I'm sorry I see now that it was from week 10-17.

SSOG said:

DoubleG said:

My use of the term "conservative" was from the stand point of the fact that I was using his last 8 games and rounding down (his last 8 games of '09 pencilled out to 16 would have been 96-1150-8 so I went with 90-1000-8).

Secondly, while I understand your point in regards to history, the fact is TE were simply not the type of players used in the ways they are today. They were not used as prominantly as pass catching weapons in the pass-heavy NFL of 2010 the way they were in the days of Ditka, Newsome et.al. And most of them were not 6' 5" 250 lbs. If you look at body type, and the way he is used in the offense, a comparison to Gates is probably more applicable than any comparison to Todd Christensen or Wesley Walls.

Most agree that Rodgers is a top QB in the NFL. Finely is becoming his favorite target - in an offense that likes to throw the ball, in a league that has become dominated by the passing game. 90-1000-8 would likely land him at about TE4 or 5 (at least that's where he would have landed if he had put up those number last year in non-PPR). I don't think considering Finley a top 5 TE for 2010 is that "aggressive".

Click to expand...

First off, even if you round down, it's never "conservative" to take a player's production over a hot stretch and project that over a full season. I mean, if I extrapolated Jamaal Charles' last 8 games over a full season, I'd get 2252 yards and 14 TDs. Let's say I rounded down and projected Charles for 2,000 yards and 14 TDs, instead. Would you call that a conservative projection? Doing the same thing for Jerome Harrison's last 3 games gets me 3667 yards and 27 TDs. Even if I rounded way down and projected him to 3,000 yards and 25 TDs, would you call that a "conservative" approach?The simple fact is that a player's true ability is never as high as it appears during a hot streak, so using a hot streak as a starting point for a projection is folly. I know that it seems very intuitive to place additional emphasis on a hot streak that happened to end the season rather than one that happened at the beginning or in the middle of the season. It makes sense- we can say that either something finally "clicked", or a team started giving a player reps and he ran away with them, or that he "is becoming a favorite target", or we can even tell ourselves that end-of-season data is more recent than beginning-of-season data and the more recent the data, the greater it's value. The problem is that, while that narrative seems perfectly plausible, it's not statistically supported. I've seen multiple studies looking at hot streaks to end a season (for fantasy players as well as for entire teams), and they pretty much all agree that end-of-season data holds no more predictive power than entire-season data.

Second, saying that Finley isn't built or used like the TEs of the 1980s is interesting, since Kellen Winslow Sr. and Todd Christensen are the only two TEs in history who have come within 30 points of what you casually termed as Finley's upside. Comparing Finley to his modern contemporaries only makes such an upside all the more implausible. Tony Gonzalez, Jason Witten, Antonio Gates, and Shannon Sharpe are all contemporaries of or prototypes for Jermichael Finley. Those four players have combined for an amazing 13 first team AP All Pro nods, including an absurd 12 of the last 14 (the only exceptions are Shockey in 2002 and Dallas Clark in 2009). Those four luminaries are the undisputed gold standard for modern TE studhood, and all four are likely future Hall of Famers. And the best season any of them has had in his entire career was 174 fantasy points (Gonzo's 93/1203/9 in 2000 and Gates' 81/964/13 in 2004). You said that Finley's upside was 209 points, more than TWENTY PERCENT HIGHER (35 fantasy points) than the best season produced by the guys who hold 12 of the last 14 first team AP All Pro awards. You are radically, radically, radically overestimating Finley's upside. In fact, your "conservative" estimate is far closer to Finley's actual upside than your upside estimate.

Third, calling Finley "top 5" is mildly aggressive, since the kid's never ranked in the top 12 in his career. Still, I think "top 5" is perfectly reasonable. The problem is that the numbers you posted aren't "top 5" numbers, they're "top 2" numbers. Over the last 5 years, those numbers would have ranked Finley 4th, 2nd, 3rd, 1st, and 2nd in the league (average rank = 2.4). The average season by TE5 over that span was 61/738/7. No TE5 over that span has topped 900 receiving yards. Only one has topped 7 TDs (Dallas Clark, who in 2007 had 616 yards and 11 scores). Only 5 times in the last 5 years has a TE- any TE at all- topped the 90 reception plateau.

Click to expand...

First off (in response to your first off) - there are those that were seeing Charles putting up strong numbers in 2010 (unfortunately the Cheifs were not among those - bringing in Thomas Jones and McCluster) - and you really don't really expect a response about Harrison's 3 game sample size, do you? (Especially when his carries over that 3 game span would pencil out to 560 for a season - almost 200 higher than any RB in the last several....decades.) First off, you suggest that this is simply a "hot streak" and keep throwing around the word "career" in regards to Finley. This will be his 3rd year in the league, so in this case, his stats in the latter part of '09 could easily be seen as indicative in regards to the way he will be utilized going forward (and the Packers have said as much). This is hardly a case of a guy like Harrison (who has been in the league for 5 years and done very little) - having a hot streak of 3 games and then extrapolating it. Secondly, I'm not sure where you got any of the "upside" ideas from - especially the bolded parts (I think you are putting the words of another post in my mouth) - as the only numbers I've posted are 90-1000-8, which I feel is a realistic number for Finley given the offense he plays in, the QB at the helm and the style of offense they run.

Thirdly, (again in response to your Thirdly) - it's the NFL and times they are a-changing. Here is some histroical data I found very telling in regards to TEs. In a CBS, non-PPR league I'm in with standard scoring, here are the number of 100 fantasy point TE's there were by season:

2000 - 1 (Gonzo)

2001 - 1 (Gonzo)

2002 - 2 (Gonzo & Heap)

2003 - 1 (Gonzo)

Now, lest we miss the "changing part"...

2004 - 4

2005 - 7

2006 - 5

2007 - 6

2008 - 4

2009 - 10

I think the point is fairly obvious. The NFL is moving to a passing league in which the TEs play a more prominant role in the passing attack.

Since you like Gonzo as the best TE ever to lace 'em up, I took a peek at his first two seasons as well. In the first 11 games of 1999 (his 2nd season) - he averaged only 2.3 receptions per game, 32.4 yds/game and 0 TDs. In the last 5 games of 1999, Gonzo had a big uptick. In the last 5 games his average number of recptions jumped to 4.8/game, with 53 receiving yards/game and he scored 2 TDs in the last 2 games of 1999. Now, if you were to take those last 5 games in his sophomore season, and pencil them out as his production in 2000, you would have gotten:

72-848-6 (maybe 7 if you want be aggresive with 6.4)

Gonzo's actual production in 2000: 76-849-11

Gonzo's QB in 2000? Elvis Grbac. My point is not to compare Finley to Gonzo specifically, but merely to show that sometimes, the tale end of a players season (especially relatively early in their respective careers) can be indicative of how the team will use that player in the future. As I said before, I actually think Gonzo or Gates is the perfect comparison - both are 6' 5" 240+, creating defensive mismatches (although Gates has had better QBs than Gonzo).

Every season a team wins because they snag a guy just before he becomes a bonified "stud" - this is the year to hit with Finley, IMHO. After this season he will be one of those perennial top 5 TEs. He's got the measurables, the talent, the system, and the QB. To simply suggest that he couldn't possibly put up XYZ because he hasn't done it before in his 2 year career is looking only at the numbers. The same would have been said of Gonzo going into 2000 - and Gates going into 2004 - and was said of Moss' hot start with the Pats. I realize this is akin to comparing him to some of the elite players in the league, but as his "hot streak" showed, he may very well be an elite TE in the NFL - and will likely be for a long time.

DoubleG said:

SSOG said:

DoubleG said:

My use of the term "conservative" was from the stand point of the fact that I was using his last 8 games and rounding down (his last 8 games of '09 pencilled out to 16 would have been 96-1150-8 so I went with 90-1000-8).

Secondly, while I understand your point in regards to history, the fact is TE were simply not the type of players used in the ways they are today. They were not used as prominantly as pass catching weapons in the pass-heavy NFL of 2010 the way they were in the days of Ditka, Newsome et.al. And most of them were not 6' 5" 250 lbs. If you look at body type, and the way he is used in the offense, a comparison to Gates is probably more applicable than any comparison to Todd Christensen or Wesley Walls.

Most agree that Rodgers is a top QB in the NFL. Finely is becoming his favorite target - in an offense that likes to throw the ball, in a league that has become dominated by the passing game. 90-1000-8 would likely land him at about TE4 or 5 (at least that's where he would have landed if he had put up those number last year in non-PPR). I don't think considering Finley a top 5 TE for 2010 is that "aggressive".

Click to expand...

First off, even if you round down, it's never "conservative" to take a player's production over a hot stretch and project that over a full season. I mean, if I extrapolated Jamaal Charles' last 8 games over a full season, I'd get 2252 yards and 14 TDs. Let's say I rounded down and projected Charles for 2,000 yards and 14 TDs, instead. Would you call that a conservative projection? Doing the same thing for Jerome Harrison's last 3 games gets me 3667 yards and 27 TDs. Even if I rounded way down and projected him to 3,000 yards and 25 TDs, would you call that a "conservative" approach?The simple fact is that a player's true ability is never as high as it appears during a hot streak, so using a hot streak as a starting point for a projection is folly. I know that it seems very intuitive to place additional emphasis on a hot streak that happened to end the season rather than one that happened at the beginning or in the middle of the season. It makes sense- we can say that either something finally "clicked", or a team started giving a player reps and he ran away with them, or that he "is becoming a favorite target", or we can even tell ourselves that end-of-season data is more recent than beginning-of-season data and the more recent the data, the greater it's value. The problem is that, while that narrative seems perfectly plausible, it's not statistically supported. I've seen multiple studies looking at hot streaks to end a season (for fantasy players as well as for entire teams), and they pretty much all agree that end-of-season data holds no more predictive power than entire-season data.

Second, saying that Finley isn't built or used like the TEs of the 1980s is interesting, since Kellen Winslow Sr. and Todd Christensen are the only two TEs in history who have come within 30 points of what you casually termed as Finley's upside. Comparing Finley to his modern contemporaries only makes such an upside all the more implausible. Tony Gonzalez, Jason Witten, Antonio Gates, and Shannon Sharpe are all contemporaries of or prototypes for Jermichael Finley. Those four players have combined for an amazing 13 first team AP All Pro nods, including an absurd 12 of the last 14 (the only exceptions are Shockey in 2002 and Dallas Clark in 2009). Those four luminaries are the undisputed gold standard for modern TE studhood, and all four are likely future Hall of Famers. And the best season any of them has had in his entire career was 174 fantasy points (Gonzo's 93/1203/9 in 2000 and Gates' 81/964/13 in 2004). You said that Finley's upside was 209 points, more than TWENTY PERCENT HIGHER (35 fantasy points) than the best season produced by the guys who hold 12 of the last 14 first team AP All Pro awards. You are radically, radically, radically overestimating Finley's upside. In fact, your "conservative" estimate is far closer to Finley's actual upside than your upside estimate.

Third, calling Finley "top 5" is mildly aggressive, since the kid's never ranked in the top 12 in his career. Still, I think "top 5" is perfectly reasonable. The problem is that the numbers you posted aren't "top 5" numbers, they're "top 2" numbers. Over the last 5 years, those numbers would have ranked Finley 4th, 2nd, 3rd, 1st, and 2nd in the league (average rank = 2.4). The average season by TE5 over that span was 61/738/7. No TE5 over that span has topped 900 receiving yards. Only one has topped 7 TDs (Dallas Clark, who in 2007 had 616 yards and 11 scores). Only 5 times in the last 5 years has a TE- any TE at all- topped the 90 reception plateau.

Click to expand...

First off (in response to your first off) - there are those that were seeing Charles putting up strong numbers in 2010 (unfortunately the Cheifs were not among those - bringing in Thomas Jones and McCluster) - and you really don't really expect a response about Harrison's 3 game sample size, do you? (Especially when his carries over that 3 game span would pencil out to 560 for a season - almost 200 higher than any RB in the last several....decades.) First off, you suggest that this is simply a "hot streak" and keep throwing around the word "career" in regards to Finley. This will be his 3rd year in the league, so in this case, his stats in the latter part of '09 could easily be seen as indicative in regards to the way he will be utilized going forward (and the Packers have said as much). This is hardly a case of a guy like Harrison (who has been in the league for 5 years and done very little) - having a hot streak of 3 games and then extrapolating it. Secondly, I'm not sure where you got any of the "upside" ideas from - especially the bolded parts (I think you are putting the words of another post in my mouth) - as the only numbers I've posted are 90-1000-8, which I feel is a realistic number for Finley given the offense he plays in, the QB at the helm and the style of offense they run.

Thirdly, (again in response to your Thirdly) - it's the NFL and times they are a-changing. Here is some histroical data I found very telling in regards to TEs. In a CBS, non-PPR league I'm in with standard scoring, here are the number of 100 fantasy point TE's there were by season:

2000 - 1 (Gonzo)

2001 - 1 (Gonzo)

2002 - 2 (Gonzo & Heap)

2003 - 1 (Gonzo)

Now, lest we miss the "changing part"...

2004 - 4

2005 - 7

2006 - 5

2007 - 6

2008 - 4

2009 - 10

I think the point is fairly obvious. The NFL is moving to a passing league in which the TEs play a more prominant role in the passing attack.

Since you like Gonzo as the best TE ever to lace 'em up, I took a peek at his first two seasons as well. In the first 11 games of 1999 (his 2nd season) - he averaged only 2.3 receptions per game, 32.4 yds/game and 0 TDs. In the last 5 games of 1999, Gonzo had a big uptick. In the last 5 games his average number of recptions jumped to 4.8/game, with 53 receiving yards/game and he scored 2 TDs in the last 2 games of 1999. Now, if you were to take those last 5 games in his sophomore season, and pencil them out as his production in 2000, you would have gotten:

72-848-6 (maybe 7 if you want be aggresive with 6.4)

Gonzo's actual production in 2000: 76-849-11

Gonzo's QB in 2000? Elvis Grbac. My point is not to compare Finley to Gonzo specifically, but merely to show that sometimes, the tale end of a players season (especially relatively early in their respective careers) can be indicative of how the team will use that player in the future. As I said before, I actually think Gonzo or Gates is the perfect comparison - both are 6' 5" 240+, creating defensive mismatches (although Gates has had better QBs than Gonzo).

Every season a team wins because they snag a guy just before he becomes a bonified "stud" - this is the year to hit with Finley, IMHO. After this season he will be one of those perennial top 5 TEs. He's got the measurables, the talent, the system, and the QB. To simply suggest that he couldn't possibly put up XYZ because he hasn't done it before in his 2 year career is looking only at the numbers. The same would have been said of Gonzo going into 2000 - and Gates going into 2004 - and was said of Moss' hot start with the Pats. I realize this is akin to comparing him to some of the elite players in the league, but as his "hot streak" showed, he may very well be an elite TE in the NFL - and will likely be for a long time.

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we can go back and forth over past seasons stats and what (future) HOF'ers have done all offseason... imo it really has no impact on this upcoming season. the game is changing, the preparation is changing, and the players are changing. while i love looking at what people have done in the past, i have a hard time finding relevance when it comes to young, unproven players with big upside such as finley. imo it's much easier to do with people who have been in the league and have gotten to show what they can do. finley just started to get his opportunities and show what he can do this past season and started REALLY showing it towards the end of the season. your same argument could (and probably was) have been made regarding chris johnson last off season. if i had projected him going over 2k yards and 14 TD's i suspect you'd be in here telling me that only 5 RB's have ever done that (gone 2k) and that its an overly agressive projection, he's never come close to that in previous seasons, and it's just not going to happen.... however there's now 6 RB's who have ecliped 2k in a single season.

(i'm not comparing rb's and te's here, just unproven guys with huge upside.)

DoubleG said:

First off (in response to your first off) - there are those that were seeing Charles putting up strong numbers in 2010 (unfortunately the Cheifs were not among those - bringing in Thomas Jones and McCluster) - and you really don't really expect a response about Harrison's 3 game sample size, do you? (Especially when his carries over that 3 game span would pencil out to 560 for a season - almost 200 higher than any RB in the last several....decades.) First off, you suggest that this is simply a "hot streak" and keep throwing around the word "career" in regards to Finley. This will be his 3rd year in the league, so in this case, his stats in the latter part of '09 could easily be seen as indicative in regards to the way he will be utilized going forward (and the Packers have said as much). This is hardly a case of a guy like Harrison (who has been in the league for 5 years and done very little) - having a hot streak of 3 games and then extrapolating it. Secondly, I'm not sure where you got any of the "upside" ideas from - especially the bolded parts (I think you are putting the words of another post in my mouth) - as the only numbers I've posted are 90-1000-8, which I feel is a realistic number for Finley given the offense he plays in, the QB at the helm and the style of offense they run.Thirdly, (again in response to your Thirdly) - it's the NFL and times they are a-changing. Here is some histroical data I found very telling in regards to TEs. In a CBS, non-PPR league I'm in with standard scoring, here are the number of 100 fantasy point TE's there were by season:2000 - 1 (Gonzo)2001 - 1 (Gonzo)2002 - 2 (Gonzo & Heap)2003 - 1 (Gonzo)Now, lest we miss the "changing part"...2004 - 42005 - 72006 - 52007 - 62008 - 42009 - 10I think the point is fairly obvious. The NFL is moving to a passing league in which the TEs play a more prominant role in the passing attack. Since you like Gonzo as the best TE ever to lace 'em up, I took a peek at his first two seasons as well. In the first 11 games of 1999 (his 2nd season) - he averaged only 2.3 receptions per game, 32.4 yds/game and 0 TDs. In the last 5 games of 1999, Gonzo had a big uptick. In the last 5 games his average number of recptions jumped to 4.8/game, with 53 receiving yards/game and he scored 2 TDs in the last 2 games of 1999. Now, if you were to take those last 5 games in his sophomore season, and pencil them out as his production in 2000, you would have gotten: 72-848-6 (maybe 7 if you want be aggresive with 6.4)Gonzo's actual production in 2000: 76-849-11Gonzo's QB in 2000? Elvis Grbac. My point is not to compare Finley to Gonzo specifically, but merely to show that sometimes, the tale end of a players season (especially relatively early in their respective careers) can be indicative of how the team will use that player in the future. As I said before, I actually think Gonzo or Gates is the perfect comparison - both are 6' 5" 240+, creating defensive mismatches (although Gates has had better QBs than Gonzo). Every season a team wins because they snag a guy just before he becomes a bonified "stud" - this is the year to hit with Finley, IMHO. After this season he will be one of those perennial top 5 TEs. He's got the measurables, the talent, the system, and the QB. To simply suggest that he couldn't possibly put up XYZ because he hasn't done it before in his 2 year career is looking only at the numbers. The same would have been said of Gonzo going into 2000 - and Gates going into 2004 - and was said of Moss' hot start with the Pats. I realize this is akin to comparing him to some of the elite players in the league, but as his "hot streak" showed, he may very well be an elite TE in the NFL - and will likely be for a long time.

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1. There *ARE* people who are bullish on Charles. There *ARE NOT* people who are pro-rating his late stats, rounding down a little, and then calling it a nice "conservative" projection of 2000 yards from scrimmage. That's not a good method for generating "conservative" projections.2. There were two people who posted "conservative" projections in this thread, and I was mixing them up because you both posted that a 1000/8 projection was conservative, albeit for different reasons. One of them (you) used the "pro-rate his hot streak" methodology (which is not a conservative methodology), and the other guy posted that Finley had 1250/14 upside so projecting 1000/10 was actually pretty conservative (which is not a realistic upside projection). Both posters came to the same projection and called it conservative for different reasons. I'm just saying that it's not a conservative projection by any stretch of the imagination. Not for the two reasons listed, or for any other reason. It is a very aggressive projection. It might wind up being right in hindsight, but that doesn't change the fact that it's incredibly aggressive.3. So your point is that the NFL is leaning more on its TEs and therefore a projection of 148 fantasy points is conservative? Since 2004 (the year TE production really took off), a TE has eclipsed 148 points 9 times. That's 1.5 time per season... which means a projection of 148 fantasy points will generally rank a TE as TE2.5. Which is exactly what I'm saying. Even in today's TE-friendly NFL, a projection of 1000/8 isn't a top-5 projection, it's a top-2 projection. And when you predict top-2 production from a guy with no history of even being a fantasy starter, then that's aggressive. I understand that Finley's "career" is only two years to date, but that's kind of the point. You're predicting high level stud production from a guy who has never given us high level stud production before (outside of one hot streak to end the season). That's an aggressive prediction.To be honest, I don't have any problem with your 1000/8 prediction. It's definitely higher than I'd go, but at least it's realistically achievable (unlike a couple of the numbers that have been thrown out in this thread). I get that you are really, really high on the guy, and sometimes fantasy football is just about going out and getting the guys you're really high on. The only thing I'm taking an issue to is the fact that I think you're misrepresenting your projection by calling it "conservative". Conservative implies that there's a very high chance that Finley hits those numbers and a very low chance that he misses them. I don't think that's the case at all. Between the two "conservative" estimates and Lawfitz calling 1000/11 Finley's FLOOR, I think that Finley's bust risk has been dramatically understated so far in this thread. He's a 23 year old with 750 career yards playing in a passing offense that could easily regress and sharing the field with 4 other guys who are considered NFL-caliber receivers. Public perception is skewed because we're coming off of the greatest fantasy season for TEs league-wide in NFL history. Finley might be the next Tony Gonzalez, but until he actually BECOMES the next Tony Gonzalez, 1000/8 will not be a conservative estimate. Hell, I think that Michael Crabtree is destined for studhood, too... but it still wouldn't be very conservative to project him for 1300 yards this season.Sorry to be the Doubting Thomas, but I felt like this thread could use a heavy splash of cold water.

werdnoynek said:

your same argument could (and probably was) have been made regarding chris johnson last off season. if i had projected him going over 2k yards and 14 TD's i suspect you'd be in here telling me that only 5 RB's have ever done that (gone 2k) and that its an overly agressive projection, he's never come close to that in previous seasons, and it's just not going to happen.... however there's now 6 RB's who have ecliped 2k in a single season.

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Sure. Likewise, if anyone had projected Priest Holmes, Shaun Alexander, LaDainian Tomlinson, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, or Randy Moss to break their respective TD records, I would have said those were incredibly aggressive projections, too. If someone had predicted the 2007 Patriots would have won their first 18 games, I'd say that was a ludicrously aggressive prediction. And you know what? I would have been right. Aggressive is not a synonym for incorrect, nor is it a synonym for impossible. Aggressive simply means that there is a large leap of faith involved, or that there is a low (but still non-zero) probability of attaining the totals projected. Aggressive projections are risky projections. Sometimes risky projections are necessary if you want to win (the only thing a "risk-free" philosophy assures you is a 6th place finish), but let's not misrepresent the level of risk inherent in some of the projections being posted here.

the reality is - ssog is right... but i'm not ready to admit it!!! :(

eta: didn't read #49 before above post.

i now understand the word aggressive regarding these projections and understand where you're coming from SSOG. my man crush on finley has blinded me... and because of it, i'm willing to accept said risk.