Carson Palmer, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (1 Viewer)

2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Carson Palmer, QB, Cincinnati Bengals

Player Page Link: Carson Palmer Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

Carson Palmer is an interesting projection for 2010. He adds several passing options (Antonio Bryant, Jermaine Gresham, Matt Jones, and Jordan Shipley) yet still has many detractors that say he has totally lost his arm.

It seems to the outsider that the Bengals are counting on his arm, by addition of all those weapons and I will project an improved passing attack for the Bengals. In 09, they rushed 491 times while throwing 495 passes, but only had a 6.6 ypa for the season. However, Palmer's career is only 7.1 ypa. I think that most are discounting his capabilities and performance from a year ago.

I think that Palmer will show improvement in 2010 through a combination of improved arm strength and much better weapons. A solid late QB pick as he currently has an ADP of QB 16 and 111 overall.

Carson Palmer 16 gms 340 comp 525 attempts 3728 yds 7.1 ypa 20 TDs & 14 ints 30 rushes 80 yds & 1 TD

Palmer threw for 3094 yards, 21 TDs & added 39 rushing yards and 3 TDs in 2009 for a QB rank of 18.

However, it's important to note a few things:

1) In the week 17 game, the Bengals had nothing to play for, and the Jets had everything to play for. It showed in the relative performance put forth by the 2 teams, and in the fact that Palmer didn't play in the 2nd half, despite only being down by 1 TD. If you factor in Palmer's average for the 1st 15 games of 2009=206 passing yards, 1 TD, that adds up to 3300 passing yards, and 22 TDs (the rushing yardage is minimal, and the rushing TDs are too arbitrary).

2) In 2009, the Bengals attempted only 477 passes. That was 27th in the league. I'd expect that number to go up to AT LEAST 509 attempts (only 2 more passes/game) with all the passing game weapons added by the Bengals.

3) Palmer completed 60% of his passes in 2009. His career average (before his arm injury) was 64%. His YPA in 2009 was 6.6. His career YPA (before his arm injury) was 7.3. I'd say with a little more emphasis on passing, his completion percentage will be a little higher, so let's say 61% & his YPA will increase a little, so let's say 6.9 YPA.

509 attempts, 320 completions, (6.9 YPA)=3512 passing yards

4) In 2009, Palmer threw a TD on 7.5% of his completions. His career average is 8%. Again, with an improved passing attack, I'd expect that % to go up, so let's say 7.7%.

320 completions X .077= 25 passing TDs

So, 3512 passing yards and 25 passing TDs are my projections for him. While I think it is likely he could exceed these numbers, I don't see how (barring injury) he won't reach these numbers.

Interesting to see some positive posts on Palmer - seems like Cincy is a run 1st team now and his arm looked shot at the end of the season - maybe it was fatigue but scary nonetheless - would consider him in a QBBC with someone like McNabb or Eli.....

Bayhawks said:

1) In the week 17 game, the Bengals had nothing to play for, and the Jets had everything to play for. It showed in the relative performance put forth by the 2 teams, and in the fact that Palmer didn't play in the 2nd half, despite only being down by 1 TD. If you factor in Palmer's average for the 1st 15 games of 2009=206 passing yards, 1 TD, that adds up to 3300 passing yards, and 22 TDs (the rushing yardage is minimal, and the rushing TDs are too arbitrary).

Click to expand...

1TD down? The Jets were winning 27-0 When Palmer was pulled in the 3rd qtr.

Palmer was 1-11 ZERO YARDS and an INT in that 1st game....

Those stats you look to add to Palmer's numbers - Personally I'd look at the 2nd game's stats At home Vs the same defense with EVERYTHING to play for as better snapshot than the 15 prior games Vs whoever...

18/36 146 yards 1 TD 1 INT.. Now factor the game is away.

Bottom line - Carson Palmer finished the season looking like he didn't belong in the league.

If not for Cedric Benson, the 2nd game could have looked a lot more like the 1st.

So, throw all the stats away - Is this guy OK?????

Reaper said:

Bayhawks said:

1) In the week 17 game, the Bengals had nothing to play for, and the Jets had everything to play for. It showed in the relative performance put forth by the 2 teams, and in the fact that Palmer didn't play in the 2nd half, despite only being down by 1 TD. If you factor in Palmer's average for the 1st 15 games of 2009=206 passing yards, 1 TD, that adds up to 3300 passing yards, and 22 TDs (the rushing yardage is minimal, and the rushing TDs are too arbitrary).

Click to expand...

1TD down? The Jets were winning 27-0 When Palmer was pulled in the 3rd qtr.

Palmer was 1-11 ZERO YARDS and an INT in that 1st game....

Those stats you look to add to Palmer's numbers - Personally I'd look at the 2nd game's stats At home Vs the same defense with EVERYTHING to play for as better snapshot than the 15 prior games Vs whoever...

18/36 146 yards 1 TD 1 INT.. Now factor the game is away.

Bottom line - Carson Palmer finished the season looking like he didn't belong in the league.

If not for Cedric Benson, the 2nd game could have looked a lot more like the 1st.

So, throw all the stats away - Is this guy OK?????

Click to expand...

He looked AWFUL in both games - thats why I am suprised by the love....

Kiddnets said:

Reaper said:

Bayhawks said:

1) In the week 17 game, the Bengals had nothing to play for, and the Jets had everything to play for. It showed in the relative performance put forth by the 2 teams, and in the fact that Palmer didn't play in the 2nd half, despite only being down by 1 TD. If you factor in Palmer's average for the 1st 15 games of 2009=206 passing yards, 1 TD, that adds up to 3300 passing yards, and 22 TDs (the rushing yardage is minimal, and the rushing TDs are too arbitrary).

Click to expand...

1TD down? The Jets were winning 27-0 When Palmer was pulled in the 3rd qtr.

Palmer was 1-11 ZERO YARDS and an INT in that 1st game....

Those stats you look to add to Palmer's numbers - Personally I'd look at the 2nd game's stats At home Vs the same defense with EVERYTHING to play for as better snapshot than the 15 prior games Vs whoever...

18/36 146 yards 1 TD 1 INT.. Now factor the game is away.

Bottom line - Carson Palmer finished the season looking like he didn't belong in the league.

If not for Cedric Benson, the 2nd game could have looked a lot more like the 1st.

So, throw all the stats away - Is this guy OK?????

Click to expand...

He looked AWFUL in both games - thats why I am suprised by the love....

Click to expand...

He didn't look much better in Wks 12-13 against some of the worst pass defenses in the league when they WERE playing for something.Wk 12 at home against CLE (Rk 29 PD) 110yd/1 TD/3 Sacks

Wk 13 at home against DET (Rk 32nd PD) 220 yd/1 TD/2 Int/2 Sk/ 1 Fum

Nor in Wk 14 when he put up a whopping 94 yds against MIN.

Not saying the combo of elbow, fatigue, run 1st, losing TJ, etc. weren't viable reasons. But his eyes looked completely glazed over like a beaten warrior most of the 2nd half of the season.

When a guy looks shell-shocked like that after major injuries I think he needs a strong preseason showing and not just added weapons on paper to prove he's still got it.

Bumping this one. Palmer runs the gamut this year from people thinking he's a shark pickup who could rediscover his elite ways with a healthy season and Antonio Bryant added to the mix, to other people who wonder if he's even a solid QB2 to roster in 10- and 12-team leagues. This is a guy I'll admit to being a bit undecided on myself (which is why I'm not writing this spotlight, LOL).

Let's hear some other opinions.

I'll bite, Jason. Actually, I just realized that amongst the staff I'm the lowest on Carson Palmer with my current ranking @ 25.

Palmer was brutal in the second half of the season, particularly down the stretch and in the playoffs. This included several matchups where he simply couldn't take advantage of low hanging fruit to produce even marginally worthwhile numbers (Det, Min, Cle, Pit, etc)

While I'm not sold on Palmer, I'm certainly not sold on Antonio Bryant staying healthy and I don't buy his billing as a weapon that will allow Palmer to return to his glory years.

I like Jermaine Gresham as much as anyone, but he's a rookie and I'm simply not counting on him to step in from day 1 and be a difference maker.

Jordan Shipley? Same thing. Nice talent, like the kid a lot, but will he even beat out Caldwell for the WR3 job? Maybe, but it might take some time.

The Bengals defense is steadily improving to the point where one must consider them as a D1 in 12-team leagues. With an improved defense and a strong running game, I don't see the formula changing much for the Bengals.

For Palmer to regain his form, he must demonstrate a marked improved in YPA. I don't see it. He hasn't averaged better than 7 YPA since 2007.

Palmer finished 18th last season while playing in 16 games. He also passed for 21 TDs and rushed for 3 TDs. Not counting on the latter happening again, so once again, barring more pass attempts and/or an improved YPA, I don't see him moving upward in the QB rankings much, but I do see him sliding a bit.

I also see the Ravens, Steelers and Browns defenses all improving on last year.

I have him projected for 475 pass attempts, 9 more than last year, but finishing 24th amongst QBs in fantasy pts.

My current projections: 287-475, 3156 yds, 6.6 YPA, 20 TDs, 15 INTs, 32-64-1 rushing

Color me doubtful on Mr. Palmer. I've read lots of reasons why he wasn't as effective in the 2nd half of the season, but he just didn't pass the eyeball test to me. He looked like he lost velocity, arm strength or something. He couldn't take advantage of poor pass defenses. Due to all of these reasons, he almost certainly won't be on any of my teams this year. He's in the group where I'll need to see it to believe it before I'm buying his stock again.

There's no way the Bengals can sign Owens and not commit to throwing the ball more this year IMHO. I've had to reconsider Palmer as a viable fantasy option this year. I had him QB16 but he now slots as QB10 for me, assuming 16 games played. What do you think of Palmer now?

Jason Wood said:

There's no way the Bengals can sign Owens and not commit to throwing the ball more this year IMHO. I've had to reconsider Palmer as a viable fantasy option this year. I had him QB16 but he now slots as QB10 for me, assuming 16 games played. What do you think of Palmer now?

Click to expand...

I still have at around QB 14-16. The Bengals don't score many points as they lean on the time crunching ground game and stifling defense to get it done. I think they are content to win games 17-10, and 20-14 style. Palmer has been nicked up alot and certainly not the caliber Qb he was earlier in his career. A game manager for 2010 imho.

If Palmer is healthy he absolutely beats his numbers from last year with the new weapons - assuming he looks good in preseason I would love to grab him as a later rd starter - would definitely pair him with a good backup just in case - QBBC with a McNabb/Eli would be very good IMO.

I am targeting Palmer as my #1 choice for a backup QB. Also, due to his potential for big numbers this year, it will allow to to wait a little on taking my starting QB and then, worst case scenario, I can play the weekly matchups throughout the year.