Ryan Mathews, RB, San Diego Chargers (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood · May 23, 2010

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Thread Topic: Ryan Mathews, RB, San Diego Chargers

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rzrback77 · May 25, 2010

I am very surprised that we are two days in and not one projection on Ryan Mathews, the Rookie RB selected by the Chargers at #12 overall and they traded up quite a bit for the privilige of grabbing him.

I think that San Diego wants to balance their offense more and that is why they felt compelled to make such a move to draft Ryan Mathews. Rookie RBs are more than capable of having a significant impact on the offense and this guy is set up to make that impact.

The Chargers RB production has slipped considerably in the past three seasons. In 07, the RBs rushed for 1987 yards and caught 83 passes for an additional 550 yards and scored 22 total TDs. In 08, the rushing yardage dropped by over 400 yards to a total of 1584 and the RBs caught 107 passes for 1032 yards for a total of 21 TDs. The overall yardage was actually increased by 79 yards and a TD, but the rushing attempts and yardage went down. In 09, the rushing attemps dropped to a three year low of 385 for 1360 yards with the receptions also dropping down to 97 for 932. The total RB yards from scrimmage in 09 was 2292, a drop a reduction of 324 yards, but the TDs held strong at 23 total.

I think that the running attempts will creep back up a little and Ryan Mathews will be the bell cow back for the Chargers. Sproles is lightning quick and he will continue to be used mostly in a third down role.

Ryan Mathews has a current ADP of RB 21 and 46 overall. In my opinion, getting him that low is a bargain, but it may not be that low come August following all of the pre-season work.

Ryan Mathews 16 gms 280 carries 1120 yards 4.0 ypc with 35 targets 25 catches 200 yards 8.0 ypc and 12 TDs

LawFitz · May 25, 2010

I love this guy. I think he steps right in and produces. 1200 rsh, 30/300 rec, 14 total TDs. Sproles is involved as a COP but I think they try to use Mathews in a feature role right away. With that passing game opening up the defenses, Mathews is going to see a lot of running room and receptions. And this comes with upside if he turns out to be a special rather than just good player once he gets the chance. As always, this is barring injury. You can't tell with these RBs until they hit the field whether they can take an NFL pounding.

mlball77 · May 25, 2010

I struggle with Matthews, but have stayed conservative on my projection so far (it's still early, things will become more clear in the preseason). I like his opportunity, but I still think the passing attack with Rivers is the strength of the offense and Sproles will have some involvement running and catching.

Rsh: 235

Yds: 909

Tds: 8

Recs: 25

Yds: 191

Tds: 1

benson_will_lead_the_way · May 25, 2010

275 for 1238 4.5 35 rec for 280 15 total TD's

Remember Sproles doesn't get as many touches as yall think.

Raiderfan32904 · May 25, 2010

Not believing in this guy, yet. He comes from a small conference and the level of competition is suspect. The Charger's line is also suspect, and it took a great LT2 to produce. I think that there will be a learning curve here. More than some people think.

180/740/3, with 29 catches for 230.

Best will far outshine him this year, IMO.

Balco · May 25, 2010

Raiderfan32904 said:
Not believing in this guy, yet. He comes from a small conference and the level of competition is suspect. T

Here are his rushing stats against BCS competition (included Boise State, 2009 since they went to a BCS Bowl game)the last 2 years:2008

@ Rutgers: 26 carries, 163 yards (6.3 ypc) 3 tds

@ Wisconsin: 17 carries 54 yards (3.2 ypc)

@ UCLA: 21 carries 166 yards (7.9 ypc) 1 td

2009

@ Wisconsin: 19 carries, 107 yards (5.6 ypc) 1 td

@ Cincinnati: 38 carries, 145 yards (3.8 ypc) 1 td

@ Illinois: 32 carries 173 yards, (5.4 ypc) 3 tds

Boise State: 19 carries 234 yards (12.3 ypc) 3 tds

Nothing in those stats shows that he only performed against lesser competition.

His coach has stated he wants Mathews to get 300 touches. If the breakdown goes according to the coaches plan:

250 carries 1100 yards (4.4 ypc) 9 tds; 50 receptions 325 yards (6.5 ypr) 2 tds

Michael Fox Fan · May 25, 2010

Balco said:
Raiderfan32904 said:

Not believing in this guy, yet. He comes from a small conference and the level of competition is suspect. T

Click to expand...

Here are his rushing stats against BCS competition (included Boise State, 2009 since they went to a BCS Bowl game)the last 2 years:2008

@ Rutgers: 26 carries, 163 yards (6.3 ypc) 3 tds

@ Wisconsin: 17 carries 54 yards (3.2 ypc)

@ UCLA: 21 carries 166 yards (7.9 ypc) 1 td

2009

@ Wisconsin: 19 carries, 107 yards (5.6 ypc) 1 td

@ Cincinnati: 38 carries, 145 yards (3.8 ypc) 1 td

@ Illinois: 32 carries 173 yards, (5.4 ypc) 3 tds

Boise State: 19 carries 234 yards (12.3 ypc) 3 tds

Nothing in those stats shows that he only performed against lesser competition.

His coach has stated he wants Mathews to get 300 touches. If the breakdown goes according to the coaches plan:

250 carries 1100 yards (4.4 ypc) 9 tds; 50 receptions 325 yards (6.5 ypr) 2 tds

The only team on that list with a good defense is Wisconsin. :boxing:

gianmarco · May 25, 2010

San Diego's YPC over the last 3 years:

2009 -- 3.3 ypc

2008 -- 4.1 ypc

2007 -- 4.2 ypc

Sure, LT isn't what he was in his prime, but he's still one of the greatest RB's of all time and that's looking at the last 3 years. We've already got 2 projections with him at 4.4 and 4.5 ypc.

Everyone is assuming he's going to get 200+ carries next year, which is fine. So let's see how many and which RB's averaged 4.4 ypc and had over 200 carries last year:

NAME POS YR AGE EXP G RSH RSHYD YD/RSH RSHTD FANT PT1 Frank Gore rb 2009 26 5 14 229 1120 4.89 10 230.62 Ryan Grant rb 2009 27 5 16 282 1253 4.44 11 211.03 Fred Jackson rb 2009 28 3 16 238 1062 4.46 2 172.74 Chris Johnson rb 2009 24 2 16 358 2006 5.60 14 346.95 Maurice Jones-Drew rb 2009 24 4 16 312 1391 4.46 15 272.56 Rashard Mendenhall rb 2009 22 2 16 242 1108 4.58 7 184.97 Adrian Peterson rb 2009 24 3 16 315 1389 4.41 18 290.58 Ray Rice rb 2009 22 2 16 254 1339 5.27 7 252.19 Jonathan Stewart rb 2009 22 2 16 221 1133 5.13 10 193.210 DeAngelo Williams rb 2009 26 4 13 216 1117 5.17 7 178.911 Ricky Williams rb 2009 32 11 16 241 1121 4.65 11 215.5
I'm gonna go out on a limb and say he's simply not as good as Chris Johnson, MJD, Gore, Peterson, Rice, Stewart, and DeAngelo Williams. These are the elite guys in the league. Aside from them, only 4 RBs passed that mark. Ironically, one of them played in Buffalo (where Spiller is in such a "terrible" situation). The other 3 are no slouches in Mendenhall, Ricky Williams, and Grant.

There were plenty of other RBs who got 200+ carries that didn't hit that 4.4 ypc mark:

Addai

Barber

Benson

Forte

S. Jackson

Jacobs

L. Johnson

T. Jones

Moreno

Kevin Smith

LT

Cadillac

In fact, only 4 of those guys above even broke 4.0 ypc (S. Jackson, T. Jones, Barber, and Benson). One of those is an elite talent (SJax), 2 of them ran behind great O-lines (Barber and T. Jones), and then Benson. Some of these guys are decent talents, some of them ran behind decent to very good O-lines, some of them had great passing games to take pressure off.

In addition to that:

In 2008, there were only 7 RBs that had 200+ carries and ran for 4.4 ypc or more.

In 2007, there were only 7 RBs that had 200+ carries and ran for 4.4 ypc or more.

In other words, I'm gonna say it's a stretch to predict Mathews, as a rookie, to rush for such a very good YPC on so many carries, especially behind an O-line that has not been very good at all the last 2-3 years. Very few RBs that carry the ball that much (200+ carries which seems to be a given) maintain a 4.4 ypc. Most of them are elite and most of them run behind very good O-lines and NONE of them were rookies last year.

I think some of you need to temper the enthusiasm. If he were to maintain a 4.0-4.1 ypc average for the year, I'd consider that a success. Unless he logs 300 carries, I don't see him hitting 1200 yds. It seems many are penciling that in as a virtual lock. In fact, unless he logs in over 250 carries, it's very possible he doesn't even break 1000 yards. I think this would be a shock for many when in fact it's very, very possible and probably more likely to happen than not.

benson_will_lead_the_way · May 25, 2010

Michael Fox said:
Balco said:

Raiderfan32904 said:

Not believing in this guy, yet. He comes from a small conference and the level of competition is suspect. T

Click to expand...

Here are his rushing stats against BCS competition (included Boise State, 2009 since they went to a BCS Bowl game)the last 2 years:2008

@ Rutgers: 26 carries, 163 yards (6.3 ypc) 3 tds

@ Wisconsin: 17 carries 54 yards (3.2 ypc)

@ UCLA: 21 carries 166 yards (7.9 ypc) 1 td

2009

@ Wisconsin: 19 carries, 107 yards (5.6 ypc) 1 td

@ Cincinnati: 38 carries, 145 yards (3.8 ypc) 1 td

@ Illinois: 32 carries 173 yards, (5.4 ypc) 3 tds

Boise State: 19 carries 234 yards (12.3 ypc) 3 tds

Nothing in those stats shows that he only performed against lesser competition.

His coach has stated he wants Mathews to get 300 touches. If the breakdown goes according to the coaches plan:

250 carries 1100 yards (4.4 ypc) 9 tds; 50 receptions 325 yards (6.5 ypr) 2 tds

Click to expand...

The only team on that list with a good defense is Wisconsin.

Mathews

Game 1-UC Davis non-FBS - 11 for 106 1 TD

Game 2-Wisconsin 5th Run D - 19 for 107

Game 3-Boise State 28th Run D - 19 for 234 3 TDs

Game 4-Cincinatti 61st Run D - 38 for 145 1 TD

Game 5-hawaii 107th Run D - 24 for 149 1 TD

Game 6-San Jose State 119th Run D - 20 for 233 1 TD

Game 7-New Mexico State 114th Run D - 25 for 157 2 TDs

Game 8-Utah State 110th Run D - 23 for 185 2 TDs

Game 9-Idaho 77th Run D - 26 for 143 3 TDs

Game 10-Nevada 22nd Run D - 8 for 32 (got injured in the 2nd quarter)

Game 11-Did not play

Game 12-Illinois 76th Run D - 32 for 173 3 TDs

Game 13-Wyoming 93rd Run D - 31 for 144 2 TDs

Rushing Defensive Rankings faced the 5th, 22nd, 28th, 61st, 76th, 77th, 93rd, 107th, 110th, 114th, 119th, and a non-FBS school.

Here is what those Rush defenses gave up per carry:

UC- Davis(they are irrevelant b/c they aren't FBS)

@Wisconsin- 2.9

Boise State- 3.8

@Cinci- 3.6

@Hawaii- 4.9

San Jose St- 6.1

@New Mexico St- 5.6

Utah State- 5.3

@Idaho- 4.7

@Illinois- 4.2

Wyoming- 4.4

While you can talk about level of competition all you want....in the same regard he was a marked man and keyed on.

benson_will_lead_the_way · May 25, 2010

gianmarco said:
San Diego's YPC over the last 3 years:

2009 -- 3.3 ypc

2008 -- 4.1 ypc

2007 -- 4.2 ypc

Sure, LT isn't what he was in his prime, but he's still one of the greatest RB's of all time and that's looking at the last 3 years. We've already got 2 projections with him at 4.4 and 4.5 ypc.

Everyone is assuming he's going to get 200+ carries next year, which is fine. So let's see how many and which RB's averaged 4.4 ypc and had over 200 carries last year:

NAME POS YR AGE EXP G RSH RSHYD YD/RSH RSHTD FANT PT1 Frank Gore rb 2009 26 5 14 229 1120 4.89 10 230.62 Ryan Grant rb 2009 27 5 16 282 1253 4.44 11 211.03 Fred Jackson rb 2009 28 3 16 238 1062 4.46 2 172.74 Chris Johnson rb 2009 24 2 16 358 2006 5.60 14 346.95 Maurice Jones-Drew rb 2009 24 4 16 312 1391 4.46 15 272.56 Rashard Mendenhall rb 2009 22 2 16 242 1108 4.58 7 184.97 Adrian Peterson rb 2009 24 3 16 315 1389 4.41 18 290.58 Ray Rice rb 2009 22 2 16 254 1339 5.27 7 252.19 Jonathan Stewart rb 2009 22 2 16 221 1133 5.13 10 193.210 DeAngelo Williams rb 2009 26 4 13 216 1117 5.17 7 178.911 Ricky Williams rb 2009 32 11 16 241 1121 4.65 11 215.5I'm gonna go out on a limb and say he's simply not as good as Chris Johnson, MJD, Gore, Peterson, Rice, Stewart, and DeAngelo Williams. These are the elite guys in the league. Aside from them, only 4 RBs passed that mark. Ironically, one of them played in Buffalo (where Spiller is in such a "terrible" situation). The other 3 are no slouches in Mendenhall, Ricky Williams, and Grant.

There were plenty of other RBs who got 200+ carries that didn't hit that 4.4 ypc mark:

Addai

Barber

Benson

Forte

S. Jackson

Jacobs

L. Johnson

T. Jones

Moreno

Kevin Smith

LT

Cadillac

In fact, only 4 of those guys above even broke 4.0 ypc (S. Jackson, T. Jones, Barber, and Benson). One of those is an elite talent (SJax), 2 of them ran behind great O-lines (Barber and T. Jones), and then Benson. Some of these guys are decent talents, some of them ran behind decent to very good O-lines, some of them had great passing games to take pressure off.

In addition to that:

In 2008, there were only 7 RBs that had 200+ carries and ran for 4.4 ypc or more.

In 2007, there were only 7 RBs that had 200+ carries and ran for 4.4 ypc or more.

In other words, I'm gonna say it's a stretch to predict Mathews, as a rookie, to rush for such a very good YPC on so many carries, especially behind an O-line that has not been very good at all the last 2-3 years. Very few RBs that carry the ball that much (200+ carries which seems to be a given) maintain a 4.4 ypc. Most of them are elite and most of them run behind very good O-lines and NONE of them were rookies last year.

I think some of you need to temper the enthusiasm. If he were to maintain a 4.0-4.1 ypc average for the year, I'd consider that a success. Unless he logs 300 carries, I don't see him hitting 1200 yds. It seems many are penciling that in as a virtual lock. In fact, unless he logs in over 250 carries, it's very possible he doesn't even break 1000 yards. I think this would be a shock for many when in fact it's very, very possible and probably more likely to happen than not.

Again, I know you don't like Mathews. But why isn't he elite? B/c he doesn't run in the 4.3's? He isn't Moreno bad as far as measurables and he has good size for his speed.

gianmarco · May 25, 2010

benson_will_lead_the_way said:
gianmarco said:

San Diego's YPC over the last 3 years:

2009 -- 3.3 ypc

2008 -- 4.1 ypc

2007 -- 4.2 ypc

Sure, LT isn't what he was in his prime, but he's still one of the greatest RB's of all time and that's looking at the last 3 years. We've already got 2 projections with him at 4.4 and 4.5 ypc.

Everyone is assuming he's going to get 200+ carries next year, which is fine. So let's see how many and which RB's averaged 4.4 ypc and had over 200 carries last year:

NAME POS YR AGE EXP G RSH RSHYD YD/RSH RSHTD FANT PT1 Frank Gore rb 2009 26 5 14 229 1120 4.89 10 230.62 Ryan Grant rb 2009 27 5 16 282 1253 4.44 11 211.03 Fred Jackson rb 2009 28 3 16 238 1062 4.46 2 172.74 Chris Johnson rb 2009 24 2 16 358 2006 5.60 14 346.95 Maurice Jones-Drew rb 2009 24 4 16 312 1391 4.46 15 272.56 Rashard Mendenhall rb 2009 22 2 16 242 1108 4.58 7 184.97 Adrian Peterson rb 2009 24 3 16 315 1389 4.41 18 290.58 Ray Rice rb 2009 22 2 16 254 1339 5.27 7 252.19 Jonathan Stewart rb 2009 22 2 16 221 1133 5.13 10 193.210 DeAngelo Williams rb 2009 26 4 13 216 1117 5.17 7 178.911 Ricky Williams rb 2009 32 11 16 241 1121 4.65 11 215.5I'm gonna go out on a limb and say he's simply not as good as Chris Johnson, MJD, Gore, Peterson, Rice, Stewart, and DeAngelo Williams. These are the elite guys in the league. Aside from them, only 4 RBs passed that mark. Ironically, one of them played in Buffalo (where Spiller is in such a "terrible" situation). The other 3 are no slouches in Mendenhall, Ricky Williams, and Grant.

There were plenty of other RBs who got 200+ carries that didn't hit that 4.4 ypc mark:

Addai

Barber

Benson

Forte

S. Jackson

Jacobs

L. Johnson

T. Jones

Moreno

Kevin Smith

LT

Cadillac

In fact, only 4 of those guys above even broke 4.0 ypc (S. Jackson, T. Jones, Barber, and Benson). One of those is an elite talent (SJax), 2 of them ran behind great O-lines (Barber and T. Jones), and then Benson. Some of these guys are decent talents, some of them ran behind decent to very good O-lines, some of them had great passing games to take pressure off.

In addition to that:

In 2008, there were only 7 RBs that had 200+ carries and ran for 4.4 ypc or more.

In 2007, there were only 7 RBs that had 200+ carries and ran for 4.4 ypc or more.

In other words, I'm gonna say it's a stretch to predict Mathews, as a rookie, to rush for such a very good YPC on so many carries, especially behind an O-line that has not been very good at all the last 2-3 years. Very few RBs that carry the ball that much (200+ carries which seems to be a given) maintain a 4.4 ypc. Most of them are elite and most of them run behind very good O-lines and NONE of them were rookies last year.

I think some of you need to temper the enthusiasm. If he were to maintain a 4.0-4.1 ypc average for the year, I'd consider that a success. Unless he logs 300 carries, I don't see him hitting 1200 yds. It seems many are penciling that in as a virtual lock. In fact, unless he logs in over 250 carries, it's very possible he doesn't even break 1000 yards. I think this would be a shock for many when in fact it's very, very possible and probably more likely to happen than not.

Click to expand...

Again, I know you don't like Mathews. But why isn't he elite? B/c he doesn't run in the 4.3's? He isn't Moreno bad as far as measurables and he has good size for his speed.

Who said I don't like Mathews? In fact, I've stated quite a few times that I actually like all 3 of the top RBs (Spiller, Best, and Mathews) and I honestly don't see any of them head and shoulders above the others. I'm of the opinion that Mathews has the safest floor, Spiller has the highest upside, and Best is right in between. I'd be happy with any of the 3 if I had the 1.4 pick. Saying I think it's a stretch for the guy to average 4.4+ ypc given the above information that I posted doesn't mean I hate the guy by any means.

As to why isn't he elite, I think the burden of proof lies more in proving why he IS elite. Elite, by definition, means the best of the best. It's a very small tier by definition. There's no shame in not being elite. That said, with Mathews never having stepped foot on the field in an NFL game, I think you need a LOT more evidence to convince me or others that he is elite than for me to convince you that he's likely not. It'd be one thing if his measurables were off the charts (i.e. Stewart or Peterson) or if his highlight videos and college stats were just absolutely extraordinary and one of a kind. But they weren't.

As I've said, I like Mathews, I think he's a good prospect, and I think he's gonna get the most touches of any rookie this year. At the same time, I also think it's foolish to project him for such a lofty YPC or for some of the other numbers in this thread and I've explained why. Very few rookies do it to begin with. Very few RB's (overall) in the NFL do it. His O-line situation is just not as good as some seem to think and over the last 2-3 years have been below average. The presence of a good passing game is not enough to bump that # that high (see Indy, Arizona, or even SD last year). Not sure how else to say it :lmao:

Michael Fox Fan · May 25, 2010

benson_will_lead_the_way said:
@Wisconsin- 2.9Boise State- 3.8@Cinci- 3.6@Hawaii- 4.9San Jose St- 6.1@New Mexico St- 5.6Utah State- 5.3@Idaho- 4.7@Illinois- 4.2Wyoming- 4.4While you can talk about level of competition all you want....in the same regard he was a marked man and keyed on.

Like I wrote, the only great defense he faced was Wisconsin. Go Badgers!! :thumbup:

In seriousness, it's hard to argue that Hawaii, SJ St, NN St, etc are great football programs.

benson_will_lead_the_way · May 25, 2010

gianmarco said:
Who said I don't like Mathews? In fact, I've stated quite a few times that I actually like all 3 of the top RBs (Spiller, Best, and Mathews) and I honestly don't see any of them head and shoulders above the others. I'm of the opinion that Mathews has the safest floor, Spiller has the highest upside, and Best is right in between. I'd be happy with any of the 3 if I had the 1.4 pick. Saying I think it's a stretch for the guy to average 4.4+ ypc given the above information that I posted doesn't mean I hate the guy by any means.

As to why isn't he elite, I think the burden of proof lies more in proving why he IS elite. Elite, by definition, means the best of the best. It's a very small tier by definition. There's no shame in not being elite. That said, with Mathews never having stepped foot on the field in an NFL game, I think you need a LOT more evidence to convince me or others that he is elite than for me to convince you that he's likely not. It'd be one thing if his measurables were off the charts (i.e. Stewart or Peterson) or if his highlight videos and college stats were just absolutely extraordinary and one of a kind. But they weren't.

As I've said, I like Mathews, I think he's a good prospect, and I think he's gonna get the most touches of any rookie this year. At the same time, I also think it's foolish to project him for such a lofty YPC or for some of the other numbers in this thread and I've explained why. Very few rookies do it to begin with. Very few RB's (overall) in the NFL do it. His O-line situation is just not as good as some seem to think and over the last 2-3 years have been below average. The presence of a good passing game is not enough to bump that # that high (see Indy, Arizona, or even SD last year). Not sure how else to say it

-"hate" was never said either. So as much as you want to use semantics of "not liking" nobody said you "hated him"-Your second paragraph is relative to each evaluator. You think Stewart is elite....yet he has never ran for over 1133 yards in either season in the NFL. So then you do use just measureables in regards to stewart b/c those #'s aren't the best of the best.

Also how big of a group is the best of the best then?

Do you have to be elite to average 4.4 or 4.5 ypc? Curtis Martin didn't have elite measureables.....yet he accomplished that feat twice when having over 300 carries.

Calling people foolish for making a projection? Why b/c an old RB with lots of carries couldn't produce for the last few years??? B/c some other rookies couldn't produce that first year??? etc etc

If I or other posters said he would average 5 YPC I would understand "foolish" but 4.5 is not the most unattainable number...especially not for a RB that has the best size speed combo coming into the league that has produced very high on every level thus far.

benson_will_lead_the_way · May 25, 2010

Michael Fox said:
benson_will_lead_the_way said:

@Wisconsin- 2.9Boise State- 3.8@Cinci- 3.6@Hawaii- 4.9San Jose St- 6.1@New Mexico St- 5.6Utah State- 5.3@Idaho- 4.7@Illinois- 4.2Wyoming- 4.4While you can talk about level of competition all you want....in the same regard he was a marked man and keyed on.

Click to expand...

Like I wrote, the only great defense he faced was Wisconsin. Go Badgers!! In seriousness, it's hard to argue that Hawaii, SJ St, NN St, etc are great football programs.

Haha...yeah yeah bias...lol.But it is much better to break defenses down by ypc IMO. But then again factor in he is a marked man too.

gianmarco · May 25, 2010

benson_will_lead_the_way said:
gianmarco said:

Who said I don't like Mathews? In fact, I've stated quite a few times that I actually like all 3 of the top RBs (Spiller, Best, and Mathews) and I honestly don't see any of them head and shoulders above the others. I'm of the opinion that Mathews has the safest floor, Spiller has the highest upside, and Best is right in between. I'd be happy with any of the 3 if I had the 1.4 pick. Saying I think it's a stretch for the guy to average 4.4+ ypc given the above information that I posted doesn't mean I hate the guy by any means.

As to why isn't he elite, I think the burden of proof lies more in proving why he IS elite. Elite, by definition, means the best of the best. It's a very small tier by definition. There's no shame in not being elite. That said, with Mathews never having stepped foot on the field in an NFL game, I think you need a LOT more evidence to convince me or others that he is elite than for me to convince you that he's likely not. It'd be one thing if his measurables were off the charts (i.e. Stewart or Peterson) or if his highlight videos and college stats were just absolutely extraordinary and one of a kind. But they weren't.

As I've said, I like Mathews, I think he's a good prospect, and I think he's gonna get the most touches of any rookie this year. At the same time, I also think it's foolish to project him for such a lofty YPC or for some of the other numbers in this thread and I've explained why. Very few rookies do it to begin with. Very few RB's (overall) in the NFL do it. His O-line situation is just not as good as some seem to think and over the last 2-3 years have been below average. The presence of a good passing game is not enough to bump that # that high (see Indy, Arizona, or even SD last year). Not sure how else to say it

Click to expand...

-"hate" was never said either. So as much as you want to use semantics of "not liking" nobody said you "hated him"-Your second paragraph is relative to each evaluator. You think Stewart is elite....yet he has never ran for over 1133 yards in either season in the NFL. So then you do use just measureables in regards to stewart b/c those #'s aren't the best of the best.

Also how big of a group is the best of the best then?

Do you have to be elite to average 4.4 or 4.5 ypc? Curtis Martin didn't have elite measureables.....yet he accomplished that feat twice when having over 300 carries.

Calling people foolish for making a projection? Why b/c an old RB with lots of carries couldn't produce for the last few years??? B/c some other rookies couldn't produce that first year??? etc etc

If I or other posters said he would average 5 YPC I would understand "foolish" but 4.5 is not the most unattainable number...especially not for a RB that has the best size speed combo coming into the league that has produced very high on every level thus far.

I have no idea what your 1st line means. I'm not even saying I don't like him. I'm saying I DO like him. Fine, nobody said I hated him. But you specifically said "I know you don't like Mathews" and that is flat out wrong. You don't know that because I DO like Mathews. So please stop putting words in my mouth or trying to characterize how I feel about a player. Just because I don't agree with some lofty projections doesn't mean I don't like him. Better from a semantics point of view?As to the rest of your post, I'll just skip to the end because it seems you completely ignored what I posted and you're all over the place. You stated that "4.5 is not the most unattainable number". No, it's not the most unattainable number but it also isn't a very commonly attainable number either. I don't think you or others realize how rarely it happens.

Over the last 5 years, these are the facts:

2009 -- There were 7 RBs total with 200+ carries that had 4.5 ypc

2008 -- There were 7 RBs total with 200+ carries that had 4.5 ypc

2007 -- There were 7 RBs total with 200+ carries that had 4.5 ypc

2006 -- There were 7 RBs total with 200+ carries that had 4.5 ypc

2005 -- There were 5 RBs total with 200+ carries that had 4.5 ypc

In other words, it's not very common at all for RBs with 200+ carries to attain a 4.5 ypc average. This is for ALL RB's. Elite RB's. Veteran RB's. RB's on good offenses. RB's behind good O-lines. When you consider that most of those few RBs that hit those #'s are either 1) elite, 2) veterans, 3) running behind an above average O-line, or 4) some combination of the above, then the chances of a rookie without elite measureables running behind a below-average O-line of hitting a pretty lofty and consistently rarely attained YPC are very slim. At best, it should be considered his CEILING. When people are posting it as a projection (i.e., likely to hit these #'s and not even a ceiling), then yes, I think it's foolish. I think it's ignoring history and not putting projections in context with actual NFL numbers.

So, to project him to hit 4.5 ypc is akin to putting him amongst the elite RB's in the league. That's a huge stretch.

Bayhawks · May 26, 2010

Michael Fox said:
Like I wrote, the only great defense he faced was Wisconsin. Go Badgers!! In seriousness, it's hard to argue that Hawaii, SJ St, NN St, etc are great football programs.

It'd be hard to argue that Oakland, KC, or Denver are great defenses, and he'll face them 6 times in 2010. In addition, they will face 3 other teams that were in the bottom 1/2 of run defenses in 2009 (Jaguars, Rams, & Colts). So over half of his games will come against below-average run defenses. I'm not sure your argument holds much water.260 carries, 4.3 YPC, 1118 rushing yards, 30 receptions, 270 rec yards, 12 total TDs

Dinsy Ejotuz · May 26, 2010

Bayhawks said:
Michael Fox said:

Like I wrote, the only great defense he faced was Wisconsin. Go Badgers!! :(In seriousness, it's hard to argue that Hawaii, SJ St, NN St, etc are great football programs.

Click to expand...

It'd be hard to argue that Oakland, KC, or Denver are great defenses, and he'll face them 6 times in 2010. In addition, they will face 3 other teams that were in the bottom 1/2 of run defenses in 2009 (Jaguars, Rams, & Colts). So over half of his games will come against below-average run defenses. I'm not sure your argument holds much water.260 carries, 4.3 YPC, 1118 rushing yards, 30 receptions, 270 rec yards, 12 total TDs

It's not just the defensive players that were a step down from the big six BCS conferences. Matthews' NCAA blockers, QB, WRs, etc weren't as high-quality either.

rzrback77 · May 26, 2010

gianmarco said:
San Diego's YPC over the last 3 years:2009 -- 3.3 ypc2008 -- 4.1 ypc2007 -- 4.2 ypcSure, LT isn't what he was in his prime, but he's still one of the greatest RB's of all time and that's looking at the last 3 years. We've already got 2 projections with him at 4.4 and 4.5 ypc. Everyone is assuming he's going to get 200+ carries next year, which is fine. So let's see how many and which RB's averaged 4.4 ypc and had over 200 carries last year:

Code:

NAME POS YR AGE EXP G RSH RSHYD YD/RSH RSHTD FANT PT1 Frank Gore rb 2009 26 5 14 229 1120 4.89 10 230.62 Ryan Grant rb 2009 27 5 16 282 1253 4.44 11 211.03 Fred Jackson rb 2009 28 3 16 238 1062 4.46 2 172.74 Chris Johnson rb 2009 24 2 16 358 2006 5.60 14 346.95 Maurice Jones-Drew rb 2009 24 4 16 312 1391 4.46 15 272.56 Rashard Mendenhall rb 2009 22 2 16 242 1108 4.58 7 184.97 Adrian Peterson rb 2009 24 3 16 315 1389 4.41 18 290.58 Ray Rice rb 2009 22 2 16 254 1339 5.27 7 252.19 Jonathan Stewart rb 2009 22 2 16 221 1133 5.13 10 193.210 DeAngelo Williams rb 2009 26 4 13 216 1117 5.17 7 178.911 Ricky Williams rb 2009 32 11 16 241 1121 4.65 11 215.5

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say he's simply not as good as Chris Johnson, MJD, Gore, Peterson, Rice, Stewart, and DeAngelo Williams. These are the elite guys in the league. Aside from them, only 4 RBs passed that mark. Ironically, one of them played in Buffalo (where Spiller is in such a "terrible" situation). The other 3 are no slouches in Mendenhall, Ricky Williams, and Grant.There were plenty of other RBs who got 200+ carries that didn't hit that 4.4 ypc mark:AddaiBarberBensonForteS. JacksonJacobsL. JohnsonT. JonesMorenoKevin SmithLTCadillacIn fact, only 4 of those guys above even broke 4.0 ypc (S. Jackson, T. Jones, Barber, and Benson). One of those is an elite talent (SJax), 2 of them ran behind great O-lines (Barber and T. Jones), and then Benson. Some of these guys are decent talents, some of them ran behind decent to very good O-lines, some of them had great passing games to take pressure off.In addition to that:In 2008, there were only 7 RBs that had 200+ carries and ran for 4.4 ypc or more.In 2007, there were only 7 RBs that had 200+ carries and ran for 4.4 ypc or more.In other words, I'm gonna say it's a stretch to predict Mathews, as a rookie, to rush for such a very good YPC on so many carries, especially behind an O-line that has not been very good at all the last 2-3 years. Very few RBs that carry the ball that much (200+ carries which seems to be a given) maintain a 4.4 ypc. Most of them are elite and most of them run behind very good O-lines and NONE of them were rookies last year. I think some of you need to temper the enthusiasm. If he were to maintain a 4.0-4.1 ypc average for the year, I'd consider that a success. Unless he logs 300 carries, I don't see him hitting 1200 yds. It seems many are penciling that in as a virtual lock. In fact, unless he logs in over 250 carries, it's very possible he doesn't even break 1000 yards. I think this would be a shock for many when in fact it's very, very possible and probably more likely to happen than not.

Nice information, but no projection. I agree with your assessment above, but until we see your ypc it is difficult to determine how much you "like" Mathews.

FreeBaGeL · May 26, 2010

gianmarco said:
the chances of a rookie without elite measureables running behind a below-average O-line of hitting a pretty lofty and consistently rarely attained YPC are very slim. At best, it should be considered his CEILING. When people are posting it as a projection (i.e., likely to hit these #'s and not even a ceiling), then yes, I think it's foolish. I think it's ignoring history and not putting projections in context with actual NFL numbers.

So, to project him to hit 4.5 ypc is akin to putting him amongst the elite RB's in the league. That's a huge stretch.

This is the problem I have with projections. If you're not projecting what you think a person will actually do, and instead are just modifying your projections for the sake of getting them to fall into the right "ranking", then what's the point?If he think Matthews will attain certain numbers, then those should be his projections, regardless of what anyone else thinks. If he thinks Leon Washington is going to take over the feature role in Seattle next year and then rush for 2000 yards, then that's what he should project. If he modifies his projections to account for Leon Washington possibly ending up as the 4th string tailback and finishing the year with 2 carries (so he splits the difference on his high totals and these totals) then that's not a projection. That's a ranking.

Anyway, to touch on your point...

No one considered Jamal Charles an elite talent, yet he averaged 5.9 ypc on ~200 carries behind a bad O-line.

No one considered Mendenhall a much better prospect than Matthews (especially going into last year), yet he averaged 4.6 ypc on 200+ carries behind a bad O-line

No one considered Fred Jackson an elite talent, yet he averaged 4.5ypc on 200+ carries behind a very bad O-line.

No one considered Jerome Harrison an elite talent, yet he averaged 4.4ypc on ~200 carries behind a decent at best O-line (that had an over the hill veteran putting up much worse numbers behind it recently, similar to SD).

No one considered Ricky Williams an elite talent anymore, yet he averaged 4.7ypc on 200+ carries.

No one considered Ray Rice an elite talent, ye he averaged 5.3ypc on 200+ carries behind a line that was not elite.

Bottom line, while it may not be particularly likely that Matthews will average 4.5ypc next year, it's certainly not THAT big of a stretch. If everything happened in ways that "made sense in the context of previous NFL numbers" in fantasy football, it would be a very boring game. In reality, the "context of NFL numbers" fails us a HUGE percentage of the time. Guys have huge dropoffs in the prime of their careers for no visible reason. Guys (which much less pedigree and in much worse situations than Matthews) come out of nowhere to light the world on fire.

If you're projecting someone to be one of the next "that guy"s, then that's what you should project. Otherwise there's no point in doing projections and we may as well all just come in here and list what we think Ryan Matthews consensus ranking is.

comfortably numb · May 26, 2010

Raiderfan32904 said:
Not believing in this guy, yet. He comes from a small conference and the level of competition is suspect. The Charger's line is also suspect, and it took a great LT2 to produce. I think that there will be a learning curve here. More than some people think.

180/740/3, with 29 catches for 230.

Best will far outshine him this year, IMO.

Is the WAC better than the conference LT was in when he was in TCU?

Lord Fantasy · May 26, 2010

Matthews may not be running behind a great O-line he's in a great offense, and one that despite being known as a passing team was in the top third (11th) in terms of rushing TDs (17 total).

He'll lose some red zone looks to both VJax and Gates, but he's still got a good shot at hitting double digit touchdowns. Which means as your RB2 he's going to win some games for you.

250/950/10

BuckeyeArt · May 26, 2010

SD face a lot of good rushing defenses last year and that likely accounts for some of their poor rushing numbers. This year, SD swaps the NFC East for the NFC West and the AFC North for the AFC South, getting easier rushing defenses in each case. I know some don't believe in using 2009 numbers for 2010 schedules but when looking at defensive rushing ypc, the numbers do correlate from year to year.

270 - 1100 - 10 and 30 -250 - 1

kremenull · May 28, 2010

FreeBaGeL said:
gianmarco said:

the chances of a rookie without elite measureables running behind a below-average O-line of hitting a pretty lofty and consistently rarely attained YPC are very slim. At best, it should be considered his CEILING. When people are posting it as a projection (i.e., likely to hit these #'s and not even a ceiling), then yes, I think it's foolish. I think it's ignoring history and not putting projections in context with actual NFL numbers.

So, to project him to hit 4.5 ypc is akin to putting him amongst the elite RB's in the league. That's a huge stretch.

Click to expand...

This is the problem I have with projections. If you're not projecting what you think a person will actually do, and instead are just modifying your projections for the sake of getting them to fall into the right "ranking", then what's the point?If he think Matthews will attain certain numbers, then those should be his projections, regardless of what anyone else thinks. If he thinks Leon Washington is going to take over the feature role in Seattle next year and then rush for 2000 yards, then that's what he should project. If he modifies his projections to account for Leon Washington possibly ending up as the 4th string tailback and finishing the year with 2 carries (so he splits the difference on his high totals and these totals) then that's not a projection. That's a ranking.

Anyway, to touch on your point...

No one considered Jamal Charles an elite talent, yet he averaged 5.9 ypc on ~200 carries behind a bad O-line.

No one considered Mendenhall a much better prospect than Matthews (especially going into last year), yet he averaged 4.6 ypc on 200+ carries behind a bad O-line

No one considered Fred Jackson an elite talent, yet he averaged 4.5ypc on 200+ carries behind a very bad O-line.

No one considered Jerome Harrison an elite talent, yet he averaged 4.4ypc on ~200 carries behind a decent at best O-line (that had an over the hill veteran putting up much worse numbers behind it recently, similar to SD).

No one considered Ricky Williams an elite talent anymore, yet he averaged 4.7ypc on 200+ carries.

No one considered Ray Rice an elite talent, ye he averaged 5.3ypc on 200+ carries behind a line that was not elite.

Bottom line, while it may not be particularly likely that Matthews will average 4.5ypc next year, it's certainly not THAT big of a stretch. If everything happened in ways that "made sense in the context of previous NFL numbers" in fantasy football, it would be a very boring game. In reality, the "context of NFL numbers" fails us a HUGE percentage of the time. Guys have huge dropoffs in the prime of their careers for no visible reason. Guys (which much less pedigree and in much worse situations than Matthews) come out of nowhere to light the world on fire.

If you're projecting someone to be one of the next "that guy"s, then that's what you should project. Otherwise there's no point in doing projections and we may as well all just come in here and list what we think Ryan Matthews consensus ranking is.

You make some great points and I agree with most of your post here, but CLE and BAL both have EXCELLENT O-lines.......

GridironMenace · Jun 3, 2010

Raiderfan32904 said:
Not believing in this guy, yet. He comes from a small conference and the level of competition is suspect. The Charger's line is also suspect, and it took a great LT2 to produce. I think that there will be a learning curve here. More than some people think. 180/740/3, with 29 catches for 230.

This is one of the most ridiculous comments I've read in a long time. You sure your Oakland bias and your SD hatred isn't speaking here? It took a great LT2 to produce? Dude, LT2 hasn't been great in several seasons. LT2 hasn't had a season with single season TD's his entire career! Even at a measley 3.3ypc last season, LT2 had 12 TD's. He had 11 TD's the previous year at a 3.8ypc clip. And you are now going to "give" Matthews 3 freaking TD's? Are you for real? Why even post such nonsense? To make matters even worse you only give Matthews 180 carries. LT2 has over 300 carries in every season except his last two (his only 2 season with less than 4.0 ypc. He has 292 carries in '08 and in '09 he had 223 carries. You, on the other hand, are only "giving" Matthews 180 carries. The kicker is that you forsee him rushing for 740 yards which equates to a respectable 4.1 ypc. Judging from SD Charger history over the last 10 years that if Matthews is able to rush the ball for 4.1 ypc, that not only is he guaranteed 200 carries on the season, but his predicted 3 TD's (by you) is a joke.Bottom line, is that if you are going to be a homer, at least don't post. No one wants to read that kind of drivel.*************************************************With the above in mind, I'll predict:270 carries1,188 yards4.4 ypc11 TD's30 receptions330 yards11 ypr2 TD's

greenheads · Jun 3, 2010

Crazy gut predictions don't really help anyone very much.

Vanilla projections that are mostly just like everybody's elses, certianly don't help.

Fact is crazy unpredictable things are going to happen and its nearly impossible to predict them. Studs are going to fall for no apparent or predictable reason and nobody's are going to go off. But there's no need to try either.

Of the 2009 pre-season consensus top 20 rb's only 7 finished top 20 by year's end. For the rb's ranked top 10, only 5 finished top 10 and for those ranked 10-20 only two finished top 20.

Four came out of nowehere: rice was 3rd, rwilliams was 7th, jcharles was 11th and fjackson was 13th. (PPR scoring)

Best strategy is to let the draft fall to you and take young players (except qb) that have shown improvement or have increased opportunities. Avoid those players that have had their chance and never been elite, coming back from injury and older players (except qb's) that have slipped. B/c if anything is predictable those are ones that will most likely fall or be suprise studs.

Pre-season projections, rankings and tiers are pretty much useless as predictors of what is going to actually happen. I guess for some its fun to spend hours grinding out projections but they will always be mostly wrong.

Crazy gut projections are not useful taken by themselves, but if you read a lot of different opinions you get a pretty good idea of who has a good chance to be that surprise player that outpreforms the standard rankings or comes out of nowhere.

greenheads · Jun 3, 2010

My point is just that the pre-season rankings will usually be wrong and that its nearly impossible to predict how they will be wrong. So why try and why rely on them.

todisco1 · Jun 3, 2010

GridironMenace said:
Raiderfan32904 said:

Not believing in this guy, yet. He comes from a small conference and the level of competition is suspect. The Charger's line is also suspect, and it took a great LT2 to produce. I think that there will be a learning curve here. More than some people think. 180/740/3, with 29 catches for 230.

Click to expand...

This is one of the most ridiculous comments I've read in a long time. You sure your Oakland bias and your SD hatred isn't speaking here? It took a great LT2 to produce? Dude, LT2 hasn't been great in several seasons. LT2 hasn't had a season with single season TD's his entire career! Even at a measley 3.3ypc last season, LT2 had 12 TD's. He had 11 TD's the previous year at a 3.8ypc clip. And you are now going to "give" Matthews 3 freaking TD's? Are you for real? Why even post such nonsense? To make matters even worse you only give Matthews 180 carries. LT2 has over 300 carries in every season except his last two (his only 2 season with less than 4.0 ypc. He has 292 carries in '08 and in '09 he had 223 carries. You, on the other hand, are only "giving" Matthews 180 carries. The kicker is that you forsee him rushing for 740 yards which equates to a respectable 4.1 ypc. Judging from SD Charger history over the last 10 years that if Matthews is able to rush the ball for 4.1 ypc, that not only is he guaranteed 200 carries on the season, but his predicted 3 TD's (by you) is a joke.Bottom line, is that if you are going to be a homer, at least don't post. No one wants to read that kind of drivel.

Wow, that seems like a harsh rebuttal. He's not the only one not quite buying into the Matthews hype. I think he'll be decent but I'm not convinced he'll be a stud right out of the gate. Moreno wasn't and he was highly thought of and had a similar draft pedigree. I also think Sproles won't disappear. I'd put him down for about 240 carries, 960 yds, 6 TDs, 30 catches, 195 yds, 1 TD

Creed Bratton · Jun 3, 2010

MrTwo94 said:
greenheads said:

Crazy gut predictions don't really help anyone very much.

Click to expand...

Vanilla projections that are mostly just like everybody's elses, certianly don't help.Fact is crazy unpredictable things are going to happen and its nearly impossible to predict them. Studs are going to fall for no apparent or predictable reason and nobody's are going to go off. But there's no need to try either.Of the 2009 pre-season consensus top 20 rb's only 7 finished top 20 by year's end. For the rb's ranked top 10, only 5 finished top 10 and for those ranked 10-20 only two finished top 20.Four came out of nowehere: rice was 3rd, rwilliams was 7th, jcharles was 11th and fjackson was 13th. (PPR scoring)Best strategy is to let the draft fall to you and take young players (except qb) that have shown improvement or have increased opportunities. Avoid those players that have had their chance and never been elite, coming back from injury and older players (except qb's) that have slipped. B/c if anything is predictable those are ones that will most likely fall or be suprise studs.Pre-season projections, rankings and tiers are pretty much useless as predictors of what is going to actually happen. I guess for some its fun to spend hours grinding out projections but they will always be mostly wrong.Crazy gut projections are not useful taken by themselves, but if you read a lot of different opinions you get a pretty good idea of who has a good chance to be that surprise player that outpreforms the standard rankings or comes out of nowhere.

Click to expand...

This is just silly. How many guys fell out of the top 20 bc of injury and how many crept in bc of injury? No one can predict injury or cuts or trades. That is a large part of why the top 20 rotates so much. All we can do is work with what we've got. Crazy gut predictions with extremely unlikely touches or yards per touch are worthless. There is much more to draft strategy than what you've laid out. But like I said, if you like a guy enough, you're going to project him high enough that you'll be drafting him before anyone else. No need to project 5 ypc or 2000 yards. Same with the guys you don't like. No one could predict Jacobs would fall so hard, but if you ranked him RB18 instead of RB10 then you were good to go last year. You don't have to have vanilla projections, but making drastic projections will end up just making you look silly the majority of the time. I'm not saying don't go out on a limb here and there, but just do it within reason.

I actually think greenheads has a valid point. I wouldn't say that preseason rankings and projections are useless like he says though. However, I think it is beneficial to be cognizant of the fact that a lot of unpredictable things can happen in a fantasy football season and not following conventional wisdom can yield results if done properly.

greenheads · Jun 3, 2010

Its not that unpredictable things CAN happen they WILL happen in the NFL. History proves that. Just be aware of that and try to figure out who has the best chance to fall (avoid those) and best chance to rise (reach a little for those) and you will draft better than going by standard rankings.

baconisgood · Jun 3, 2010

Creed Bratton said:
MrTwo94 said:

greenheads said:

Crazy gut predictions don't really help anyone very much.

Click to expand...

Vanilla projections that are mostly just like everybody's elses, certianly don't help.

Fact is crazy unpredictable things are going to happen and its nearly impossible to predict them. Studs are going to fall for no apparent or predictable reason and nobody's are going to go off. But there's no need to try either.

Of the 2009 pre-season consensus top 20 rb's only 7 finished top 20 by year's end. For the rb's ranked top 10, only 5 finished top 10 and for those ranked 10-20 only two finished top 20.

Four came out of nowehere: rice was 3rd, rwilliams was 7th, jcharles was 11th and fjackson was 13th. (PPR scoring)

Best strategy is to let the draft fall to you and take young players (except qb) that have shown improvement or have increased opportunities. Avoid those players that have had their chance and never been elite, coming back from injury and older players (except qb's) that have slipped. B/c if anything is predictable those are ones that will most likely fall or be suprise studs.

Pre-season projections, rankings and tiers are pretty much useless as predictors of what is going to actually happen. I guess for some its fun to spend hours grinding out projections but they will always be mostly wrong.

Crazy gut projections are not useful taken by themselves, but if you read a lot of different opinions you get a pretty good idea of who has a good chance to be that surprise player that outpreforms the standard rankings or comes out of nowhere.

Click to expand...

This is just silly. How many guys fell out of the top 20 bc of injury and how many crept in bc of injury? No one can predict injury or cuts or trades. That is a large part of why the top 20 rotates so much. All we can do is work with what we've got. Crazy gut predictions with extremely unlikely touches or yards per touch are worthless. There is much more to draft strategy than what you've laid out. But like I said, if you like a guy enough, you're going to project him high enough that you'll be drafting him before anyone else. No need to project 5 ypc or 2000 yards. Same with the guys you don't like. No one could predict Jacobs would fall so hard, but if you ranked him RB18 instead of RB10 then you were good to go last year. You don't have to have vanilla projections, but making drastic projections will end up just making you look silly the majority of the time. I'm not saying don't go out on a limb here and there, but just do it within reason.

Click to expand...

I actually think greenheads has a valid point. I wouldn't say that preseason rankings and projections are useless like he says though. However, I think it is beneficial to be cognizant of the fact that a lot of unpredictable things can happen in a fantasy football season and not following conventional wisdom can yield results if done properly.

How can things be unpredictable and yet you still are able to judge things properly? If you take a sober approach yeah, you will miss the unpredictable, but the Greenheads of the world who are going around predicting the "unpredictable" are still missing 90%+ of the time while also missing on all the predictable things that happen.

greenheads · Jun 3, 2010

My point is that a players stats can't be predicted b/c things change so much from year to year. The rankings will be mostly wrong so use that to your advantage. I'm not saying I can predict what those changes will be but here's an example of trying to figure out which player will be better or worse than the year before when you have a choice in the draft.

TO and Vjackson probably had similar #'s in 08 I'm too lazy to look it up. For the 09 draft standard rankings probably showed them about even or in the same tier or TO was ranked higher I don't remember. So the smart thing to do was to go for the young player that has shown improvement instead of the once stud that has fallen and gone to a bad team. I didn't "rank" or predict Vjackson to be higher or better than TO that year. But when I needed a wr and had the choice between the two in the draft I took Jackson. Red flags for TO, positive signs for improvement for Jackson.

Some players will fall, thats a fact, somebody has to take their place. Just try and figure out which players are more likely to fall and which are more likely to rise thats it. Its not that tough.

Players that I reached for last year that panned out. Roethlisberger, Vjackson, persey harvin. Those I rerached for that didn't work out. Lwashington, james davis, Chad Schilens.

I wasn't going to mention this but I won my league two years in a row doing this. The first 3 years I followed standard rankings and never made the playoffs.

TS Garp · Jun 3, 2010

My own take here is that people don't understand exactly how bad Tomlinson was the last couple of seasons and what sort of effect that had on the offense. His YPC was atrocious last season, but to watch him, he was even worse than that indicated. He went down on first contact almost every time he got the ball and he just had no burst. This forced the Chargers to become a passing team. And it worked in the regular season, but it caught up with them in the playoffs, and they know that they're not going to win a super bowl if they can't run the ball and eat clock in the playoffs. It's just not going to happen when they face good defenses. This is why you saw them give up a lot go move up and take Matthews. They know that in order to win, they need a workhorse back who can have 300+ carries in a season and take the punishment.

Look at Norv Turner's history and what he did with guys like Frank Gore, Ricky Williams, Stephen Davis, Emmith Smith, et al. Not to mention LT. He's historically been one of the very best OC's/head coaches for a RB, fantasy-wise. Again, I don't think Turner wants the Chargers to be a passing team. He wants to run early and often. You can argue that the line won't allow for this, but, again, my strong belief is that the line wasn't as much of a factor as LT just not having anything left. Yes, I realize Sproles took a step back, too, but I'm not putting a ton of credence in that in terms of looking forward to what Matthews will do.

The bottom line here is that the Chargers gave up a lot to get Matthews. They're going to give him EVERY opportunity to succeed, for better or worse. They clearly believe that Sproles is best used sparingly when it's harder for teams to game plan for him, or as a receiver, so I'm not worried about him cutting into Matthews' numbers. I really think that those who are down on Matthews are missing the boat. He's in a terrific situation. I'm not expecting anything crazy, but given how many opportunities he'll have, the numbers will be there. I think he has among the best floors of any RB outside the Top 3.

My projection:

290 carries, 1,218 yards, 12 td's, 20 catches, 180 yards, 1 td

Edit for clarification.

ddarroch4 · Jun 3, 2010

LT did not have a good rookie season with Norv Turner as the offensive coordinator. This was in a smash mouth offense with Marty Schottenheimer as the head coach and not the pass happy Norv Turner. Mathews will be overrated in redraft leagues.

Creed Bratton · Jun 3, 2010

baconisgood said:
Creed Bratton said:

MrTwo94 said:

greenheads said:

Crazy gut predictions don't really help anyone very much.

Click to expand...

Vanilla projections that are mostly just like everybody's elses, certianly don't help.

Fact is crazy unpredictable things are going to happen and its nearly impossible to predict them. Studs are going to fall for no apparent or predictable reason and nobody's are going to go off. But there's no need to try either.

Of the 2009 pre-season consensus top 20 rb's only 7 finished top 20 by year's end. For the rb's ranked top 10, only 5 finished top 10 and for those ranked 10-20 only two finished top 20.

Four came out of nowehere: rice was 3rd, rwilliams was 7th, jcharles was 11th and fjackson was 13th. (PPR scoring)

Best strategy is to let the draft fall to you and take young players (except qb) that have shown improvement or have increased opportunities. Avoid those players that have had their chance and never been elite, coming back from injury and older players (except qb's) that have slipped. B/c if anything is predictable those are ones that will most likely fall or be suprise studs.

Pre-season projections, rankings and tiers are pretty much useless as predictors of what is going to actually happen. I guess for some its fun to spend hours grinding out projections but they will always be mostly wrong.

Crazy gut projections are not useful taken by themselves, but if you read a lot of different opinions you get a pretty good idea of who has a good chance to be that surprise player that outpreforms the standard rankings or comes out of nowhere.

Click to expand...

This is just silly. How many guys fell out of the top 20 bc of injury and how many crept in bc of injury? No one can predict injury or cuts or trades. That is a large part of why the top 20 rotates so much. All we can do is work with what we've got. Crazy gut predictions with extremely unlikely touches or yards per touch are worthless. There is much more to draft strategy than what you've laid out. But like I said, if you like a guy enough, you're going to project him high enough that you'll be drafting him before anyone else. No need to project 5 ypc or 2000 yards. Same with the guys you don't like. No one could predict Jacobs would fall so hard, but if you ranked him RB18 instead of RB10 then you were good to go last year. You don't have to have vanilla projections, but making drastic projections will end up just making you look silly the majority of the time. I'm not saying don't go out on a limb here and there, but just do it within reason.

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I actually think greenheads has a valid point. I wouldn't say that preseason rankings and projections are useless like he says though. However, I think it is beneficial to be cognizant of the fact that a lot of unpredictable things can happen in a fantasy football season and not following conventional wisdom can yield results if done properly.

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How can things be unpredictable and yet you still are able to judge things properly? If you take a sober approach yeah, you will miss the unpredictable, but the Greenheads of the world who are going around predicting the "unpredictable" are still missing 90%+ of the time while also missing on all the predictable things that happen.

I wasn't trying to say that you should try to predict the unpredictable, rather that there are limitations to the reasonable projections that we do and that we aren't able to judge things the way we would wish to.

baconisgood · Jun 4, 2010

ddarroch4 said:
LT did not have a good rookie season with Norv Turner as the offensive coordinator. This was in a smash mouth offense with Marty Schottenheimer as the head coach and not the pass happy Norv Turner. Mathews will be overrated in redraft leagues.

LT had nearly 400 touches and 1600 yards with 10 TDs for a team that was 1-15 the year before. His y/c sucked but that had a lot to do with being on a crappy team.

BuckeyeArt · Jun 4, 2010

todisco1 said:
GridironMenace said:

Raiderfan32904 said:

Not believing in this guy, yet. He comes from a small conference and the level of competition is suspect. The Charger's line is also suspect, and it took a great LT2 to produce. I think that there will be a learning curve here. More than some people think. 180/740/3, with 29 catches for 230.

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This is one of the most ridiculous comments I've read in a long time. You sure your Oakland bias and your SD hatred isn't speaking here? It took a great LT2 to produce? Dude, LT2 hasn't been great in several seasons. LT2 hasn't had a season with single season TD's his entire career! Even at a measley 3.3ypc last season, LT2 had 12 TD's. He had 11 TD's the previous year at a 3.8ypc clip. And you are now going to "give" Matthews 3 freaking TD's? Are you for real? Why even post such nonsense? To make matters even worse you only give Matthews 180 carries. LT2 has over 300 carries in every season except his last two (his only 2 season with less than 4.0 ypc. He has 292 carries in '08 and in '09 he had 223 carries. You, on the other hand, are only "giving" Matthews 180 carries. The kicker is that you forsee him rushing for 740 yards which equates to a respectable 4.1 ypc. Judging from SD Charger history over the last 10 years that if Matthews is able to rush the ball for 4.1 ypc, that not only is he guaranteed 200 carries on the season, but his predicted 3 TD's (by you) is a joke.Bottom line, is that if you are going to be a homer, at least don't post. No one wants to read that kind of drivel.

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Wow, that seems like a harsh rebuttal. He's not the only one not quite buying into the Matthews hype. I think he'll be decent but I'm not convinced he'll be a stud right out of the gate. Moreno wasn't and he was highly thought of and had a similar draft pedigree. I also think Sproles won't disappear. I'd put him down for about 240 carries, 960 yds, 6 TDs, 30 catches, 195 yds, 1 TD

It may have been harsh but his points were very valid. The projections didn't make sense. Tomlinson got 223 carries averaging 3.3 ypc. There is no way they limit Matthews to 180 if he is running at 4 ypc. In addition, SD RBs have averaged 22 TDs (rush & rec - min of 21) over the last 3 seasons. Matthews with only 3 (or even 7)? Who's going to get the rest? I doubt Turner moves away from the run even more after trading up in the 1st to get a RB.Barring injury, Matthews will have to be a complete and total failure to get less than 200 carries next year.

Ray_T · Jun 4, 2010

gianmarco said:
San Diego's YPC over the last 3 years:2009 -- 3.3 ypc2008 -- 4.1 ypc2007 -- 4.2 ypcSure, LT isn't what he was in his prime, but he's still one of the greatest RB's of all time and that's looking at the last 3 years. We've already got 2 projections with him at 4.4 and 4.5 ypc. Everyone is assuming he's going to get 200+ carries next year, which is fine. So let's see how many and which RB's averaged 4.4 ypc and had over 200 carries last year:

Code:

NAME POS YR AGE EXP G RSH RSHYD YD/RSH RSHTD FANT PT1 Frank Gore rb 2009 26 5 14 229 1120 4.89 10 230.62 Ryan Grant rb 2009 27 5 16 282 1253 4.44 11 211.03 Fred Jackson rb 2009 28 3 16 238 1062 4.46 2 172.74 Chris Johnson rb 2009 24 2 16 358 2006 5.60 14 346.95 Maurice Jones-Drew rb 2009 24 4 16 312 1391 4.46 15 272.56 Rashard Mendenhall rb 2009 22 2 16 242 1108 4.58 7 184.97 Adrian Peterson rb 2009 24 3 16 315 1389 4.41 18 290.58 Ray Rice rb 2009 22 2 16 254 1339 5.27 7 252.19 Jonathan Stewart rb 2009 22 2 16 221 1133 5.13 10 193.210 DeAngelo Williams rb 2009 26 4 13 216 1117 5.17 7 178.911 Ricky Williams rb 2009 32 11 16 241 1121 4.65 11 215.5

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say he's simply not as good as Chris Johnson, MJD, Gore, Peterson, Rice, Stewart, and DeAngelo Williams. These are the elite guys in the league. Aside from them, only 4 RBs passed that mark. Ironically, one of them played in Buffalo (where Spiller is in such a "terrible" situation). The other 3 are no slouches in Mendenhall, Ricky Williams, and Grant.There were plenty of other RBs who got 200+ carries that didn't hit that 4.4 ypc mark:AddaiBarberBensonForteS. JacksonJacobsL. JohnsonT. JonesMorenoKevin SmithLTCadillacIn fact, only 4 of those guys above even broke 4.0 ypc (S. Jackson, T. Jones, Barber, and Benson). One of those is an elite talent (SJax), 2 of them ran behind great O-lines (Barber and T. Jones), and then Benson. Some of these guys are decent talents, some of them ran behind decent to very good O-lines, some of them had great passing games to take pressure off.In addition to that:In 2008, there were only 7 RBs that had 200+ carries and ran for 4.4 ypc or more.In 2007, there were only 7 RBs that had 200+ carries and ran for 4.4 ypc or more.In other words, I'm gonna say it's a stretch to predict Mathews, as a rookie, to rush for such a very good YPC on so many carries, especially behind an O-line that has not been very good at all the last 2-3 years. Very few RBs that carry the ball that much (200+ carries which seems to be a given) maintain a 4.4 ypc. Most of them are elite and most of them run behind very good O-lines and NONE of them were rookies last year. I think some of you need to temper the enthusiasm. If he were to maintain a 4.0-4.1 ypc average for the year, I'd consider that a success. Unless he logs 300 carries, I don't see him hitting 1200 yds. It seems many are penciling that in as a virtual lock. In fact, unless he logs in over 250 carries, it's very possible he doesn't even break 1000 yards. I think this would be a shock for many when in fact it's very, very possible and probably more likely to happen than not.

good call.I agree. Not because of the talent of the player, but because the chargers O-Line is mediocre at best. To expect a rookie who is still on a learning curve to get 4.5 YPC behind that line is not reasonable. as an fyi, if he does get 4.5 YPC this year, either the line needs to improve A LOT or he is going to be one of the greatest RB's to come around in a long time. While I think he is good, I dont think he is that good.I predict 215 carries 817 yards (3.8 yards per carry) and I also predict he will rush for 1000+ yards the following season.

Routilla · Jun 4, 2010

Not sure why he is going so high in mock drafts other than to say there are probably a lot of drafters with a dynasty outlook rather than a re-draft outlook. Too bad there is not a way to filter re-draft/dynasty in mock drafts to give a true perspective.

TS Garp · Jun 4, 2010

ddarroch4 said:
LT did not have a good rookie season with Norv Turner as the offensive coordinator. This was in a smash mouth offense with Marty Schottenheimer as the head coach and not the pass happy Norv Turner. Mathews will be overrated in redraft leagues.

1,600 total yards and 10 td's on 339 carries is a bad season? :shrug:

In terms of Turner being "pass happy," take a look at what he's done with RB's throughout his career and how many carries he's given them.

Ray_T · Jun 4, 2010

TS Garp said:
ddarroch4 said:

LT did not have a good rookie season with Norv Turner as the offensive coordinator. This was in a smash mouth offense with Marty Schottenheimer as the head coach and not the pass happy Norv Turner. Mathews will be overrated in redraft leagues.

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1,600 total yards and 10 td's on 339 carries is a bad season? In terms of Turner being "pass happy," take a look at what he's done with RB's throughout his career and how many carries he's given them.

yes, but you cannot deny that Turner took a run first team that played smashmouth football and turned it into a passing offense. Whether that is by design or due to the personell he has is another matter. the bottom line to me is that this team is no longer built to run the ball. Last year I cannot count the number of times that the RB got nailed in the backfield or at the line because there were no holes to run through.while LT took a lot of blame for the lackluster running game in San Diego the last year or so, I'd say a lot of the blame truly falls on the O-line, the coaches, and the scheme that is in place.while I do agree that the old LT would have been able to make something out of nothing on some of those plays, it is unreasonable to expect a RB to have a lot of 100 yard games when the line opens no holes and allows opposing players to get into the backfield before the play develops. In my opinion, the RB cannot take the blame for that.

baconisgood · Jun 4, 2010

the bottom line to me is that this team is no longer built to run the ball. Last year I cannot count the number of times that the RB got nailed in the backfield or at the line because there were no holes to run through.while LT took a lot of blame for the lackluster running game in San Diego the last year or so, I'd say a lot of the blame truly falls on the O-line, the coaches, and the scheme that is in place.

Didn't the Chargers lose 1 lineman to FA before last year and then lose 2 starters in the first 2 weeks to injury?

Maurile Tremblay · Jun 4, 2010

baconisgood said:
the bottom line to me is that this team is no longer built to run the ball. Last year I cannot count the number of times that the RB got nailed in the backfield or at the line because there were no holes to run through.while LT took a lot of blame for the lackluster running game in San Diego the last year or so, I'd say a lot of the blame truly falls on the O-line, the coaches, and the scheme that is in place.

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Didn't the Chargers lose 1 lineman to FA before last year and then lose 2 starters in the first 2 weeks to injury?

The Chargers haven't lost any offensive linemen to free agency in quite a while. (Unless you count cutting [or refusing to re-sign] guys like Mike Goff or Shane Olivea.)C Nick Hardwick and RT Jeromey Clary missed significant time last season. RG Luis Vasquez also missed some time early in the season.Hardwick's replacement, Scott Mruczkowski, played better than Hardwick last season (until Mruczkowski himself got hurt), so missing Hardwick didn't hurt all that much.Losing Vasquez and Clary did affect things. Dombrowski filled in for both and proved unready to be an NFL starter.The disappointing thing, though, is that on the left side of the line, Marcus McNeill and Kris Dielman were both pretty poor at run-blocking last season. They're supposed to be the studs on the OL, but if they don't improve their run-blocking this season it will be hard for Mathews to have a great year.

Ray_T · Jun 7, 2010

Maurile Tremblay said:
baconisgood said:

the bottom line to me is that this team is no longer built to run the ball. Last year I cannot count the number of times that the RB got nailed in the backfield or at the line because there were no holes to run through.while LT took a lot of blame for the lackluster running game in San Diego the last year or so, I'd say a lot of the blame truly falls on the O-line, the coaches, and the scheme that is in place.

Click to expand...

Didn't the Chargers lose 1 lineman to FA before last year and then lose 2 starters in the first 2 weeks to injury?

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The Chargers haven't lost any offensive linemen to free agency in quite a while. (Unless you count cutting [or refusing to re-sign] guys like Mike Goff or Shane Olivea.)C Nick Hardwick and RT Jeromey Clary missed significant time last season. RG Luis Vasquez also missed some time early in the season.Hardwick's replacement, Scott Mruczkowski, played better than Hardwick last season (until Mruczkowski himself got hurt), so missing Hardwick didn't hurt all that much.Losing Vasquez and Clary did affect things. Dombrowski filled in for both and proved unready to be an NFL starter.The disappointing thing, though, is that on the left side of the line, Marcus McNeill and Kris Dielman were both pretty poor at run-blocking last season. They're supposed to be the studs on the OL, but if they don't improve their run-blocking this season it will be hard for Mathews to have a great year.

Bingo! You have hit the nail on the head.I like Matthews, and hope he does well. I just dont think it is gonna happen right away until the O-line gets its act together.

HenryMuto · Jun 9, 2010

Someone at Fox Sports needs to be fired because after what I just read they have zero credability with me on this subject called Fantasy Football. I was at Barnes & Noble last night and figured I would look at some fantasy mags for fun and seen Fox Spots for only $4.95 so I said what the heck it be fun to buy my 1st mag this year even though I never usually buy this one it looked really nice and well put together.

So today I start reading it and get to the RB section.

25th ranked RB - Sproles and what they wrote about him.

Sproles is someone to keep an eye on during the preseason. He doesn't fit the mold of an every down RB but has no real competition for carries.

Their #43 ranked RB is Ryan Mathews

I can't believe someone is in this business and just wrote and ranked those RB's

They also have Best at #50 apparently this guy hates rookies.

vfourmax · Jun 11, 2010

I agree that apparantly the Chargers think this guy has the potential to be something special in the NFL or they would have not reached to obtain his services. I would also say as far as having the opportunity to put up big numbers in this offense has been proven in the past by LT. Granted even though LT is an elite back he did not gain all of the yards or score all the TD's by himself.

Will Matthews live up to the hype? Does he have what it takes at this level? The Chargers seem to think so and I agree that although it is all speculation at this point in his situation he will get the carries and opportunities to make an impact starting in his first year.

As far as value is concerned in a redraft league DEPENDING on production this year I would value him behind of many more proven and tested backs but in a Dynasty league his potential to possibly be an ELITE back within the next couple of years raises his value to the point of possibly even reaching a bit in the draft to secure his spot on your roster.

In a deep dynasty league you are putting yourself in the same position that the Chargers scouts and coaches are in right now and that is trying to find that rookie that will become the next Moss or LT. Will it work out who knows, that we have to wait and see.

Every year there is probably a half dozen rookies entering the NFL that has the potential to be the next superstar, most never meet expectations but then you do once in a while have that gem that sets the world on fire.

Matthews is going into a program that increases his chance of success with a potent offense with a lot of proven weapons and even the coach will make the most of this kid if he can be a big part of keeping the offense on the field.

Most people say that LT is over the hill and that may or may not be true but if Matthews can duplicate LT's last years numbers in his first year he could be well on his way to meeting or exceeding expectations. Guess we will know by December!

I am one that is sort of high on this kid and in a new start up dynasty league I reached and took him early, maybe it will be a total bust pick but maybe over the next 5 or 6 years I will be plugging in my young stud RB into my line up every week.

For this year I predict duplicatings LT's last years numbers with 223/730/12 - 20/154/0

remote controller · Jun 15, 2010

Balco said:
Raiderfan32904 said:

Not believing in this guy, yet. He comes from a small conference and the level of competition is suspect. T

Click to expand...

Here are his rushing stats against BCS competition (included Boise State, 2009 since they went to a BCS Bowl game)the last 2 years:2008

@ Rutgers: 26 carries, 163 yards (6.3 ypc) 3 tds

@ Wisconsin: 17 carries 54 yards (3.2 ypc)

@ UCLA: 21 carries 166 yards (7.9 ypc) 1 td

2009

@ Wisconsin: 19 carries, 107 yards (5.6 ypc) 1 td

@ Cincinnati: 38 carries, 145 yards (3.8 ypc) 1 td

@ Illinois: 32 carries 173 yards, (5.4 ypc) 3 tds

Boise State: 19 carries 234 yards (12.3 ypc) 3 tds

Nothing in those stats shows that he only performed against lesser competition.

His coach has stated he wants Mathews to get 300 touches. If the breakdown goes according to the coaches plan:

250 carries 1100 yards (4.4 ypc) 9 tds; 50 receptions 325 yards (6.5 ypr) 2 tds

Nice work!!

Aardvarks · Jun 15, 2010

Routilla said:
Not sure why he is going so high in mock drafts other than to say there are probably a lot of drafters with a dynasty outlook rather than a re-draft outlook. Too bad there is not a way to filter re-draft/dynasty in mock drafts to give a true perspective.

Yeah, the dynasty thing sorta clouds the waters... Especially with perceived rookie studs like Matthews. Dynasty players get a boner over any RB who's drafted in the top-15.I'm not a big Matthews guy *just because* the Chargers revved up a bandwagon in the Draft. If they didn't move on Matthews, how do we know he wouldn't have fallen to, say, #25? Or even early 2nd round? Then how would FF'ers perceive him?I perceive Matthews as a 2nd round pick. Nice footwork, bigger frame with quickness, pretty standard. Not a ton of big-time defenses on his resume. I'm not convinced Norv & staff got this one right. Plus Matthews is playing behind an O-line that is nowhere *near* the same bunch of road-graders that LaDainian enjoyed a few years ago. Hence, I see him accordingly as:825 rush yds, 8 rush TDs (3.7 per carry)190 rec yds, 27 rec, 0 rec TD

bigmiiiiike · Jun 16, 2010

I'm incapable of seeing how Mathews puts up worse numbers than Moreno did last year. Both guys were drafted 12th by their teams, and both seemingly had little competition for carries. Moreno only managed 247 carries and 28 catches last year, which isn't bad but with his backup RB being Buckhaulter, I could've easily seen him with an extra 4-5 carries per game, which would've given him 300 carries. That said, I think it's fair to set Moreno's '09 season as Mathews' floor, baring injury. Most feel that Moreno was underwhelming in the talent department last year. The Broncos' O wasn't overwhelming either. And yet he still produced 1160 total yards and 9 total TDs.

Their situations are certainly not identical, the Chargers O is better but seemingly more passing oriented. The Broncos O-Line is better. I just have a hard time seeing how Mathews gets less than 250 carries, has lower than a 3.8 YPC, and has less than 28 catches. 9 total TDs seems like a floor for the main RB in the SD offense, especially since LT had 12 last year running through quick sand all year.

Projections:

275 carries, 4.0 YPC, 1100 yards, 30 catches, 250 yards, 12 total TDs

frogpond11 · Jun 16, 2010

Aardvarks said:
Routilla said:

Not sure why he is going so high in mock drafts other than to say there are probably a lot of drafters with a dynasty outlook rather than a re-draft outlook. Too bad there is not a way to filter re-draft/dynasty in mock drafts to give a true perspective.

Click to expand...

Yeah, the dynasty thing sorta clouds the waters... Especially with perceived rookie studs like Matthews. Dynasty players get a boner over any RB who's drafted in the top-15.I'm not a big Matthews guy *just because* the Chargers revved up a bandwagon in the Draft. If they didn't move on Matthews, how do we know he wouldn't have fallen to, say, #25? Or even early 2nd round? Then how would FF'ers perceive him?I perceive Matthews as a 2nd round pick. Nice footwork, bigger frame with quickness, pretty standard. Not a ton of big-time defenses on his resume. I'm not convinced Norv & staff got this one right. Plus Matthews is playing behind an O-line that is nowhere *near* the same bunch of road-graders that LaDainian enjoyed a few years ago. Hence, I see him accordingly as:825 rush yds, 8 rush TDs (3.7 per carry)190 rec yds, 27 rec, 0 rec TD

Your projections have Matthews at ~223 carries @ 3.7 YPC for 825 rush yards...I see him as getting 250-300 carries personally. So even on the floor of my projection, I have Matthews at:250 carries @ 3.7 YPC for 925 rushing yards and 9 rushing TDs30 receptions for 200 yards and 1 rec TD1,125 total yards with 10 total TDs, not bad..this is a guy i'd like to get on my teams this year..Though I will say that the Vincent Jackson holdout does worry me some with Matthews because I fear teams will load the box more without VJAX's presence/threat out wide. So...i'm watching that situation.

Ryan Mathews, RB, San Diego Chargers (1 Viewer)

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