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Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

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Thread Topic: Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

Player Page Link: Rashard Mendenhall Player Page

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The Steelers are saying that they want to get back to running the ball more. Whether their defense will give them that opportunity remains to be seen, and we'll also have to see what the impact of the absence of Roethlisberger for a few games is on Mendenhall. Will the Steelers run him that much more which will lead to more success for him, or will defenses be able to key on him until the passing game proves they can move the ball through the air, thus leading to some frustrating games?

I think he's a fairly safe pick. I don't know that he has the massive ceiling of some of the other backs, but he's also a better receiving back than some people think and should be a focal point of the offense.

298 carries, 1,281 yards, 9 td's, 32 catches, 280 yards, 1 td.

 
Pittsburgh Steelers gonna run alot more in first 4-6 games when Roethlisberger serves his suspension. Leftwich isn't great to lead his team in passing.

 
his numbers from last season while basically not playing 3 games

242 rushes, 1108 yards 7 TD's with 25 receptions for 261 yards and 1 TD (29 targets, 25 catches)

I don't see why he can't get 300 +carries, 40-45 receptions and a total of 1600+ yards and 12-14 TD's if he's the goal line and 3rd down back as well.

Few bell cow's in today's fantasy world - Mendy could be one

 
Mendenhall should get the ball a lot this season, especially early on with Big Ben out of their lineup. The Steeler game plan has to be play good defense and run the ball. Mendenhall should be the main benefactor of that philosophy.

1240 yards, 10 td's

30 receptions for 1 td

 
Everybody assumes that Pittsburgh will run the ball more in 2010 than last year based on Roethlisberger's suspension and a return to their roots. I think that the offensive game plan change is overly stressed. Running a little more often, particularly early in the season is likely, but over the year not so much. FIrst, a quick look at some stats to get a good baseline.

07 - 281 comp 440 passes 63.8% 3386 yds 7.7 ypa 34 TDs 14 int 511 runs 2168 yds 4.24 ypc 9 TDs

08 - 302 comp 505 passes 59.8% 3614 yds 7.2 ypa 19 TDs 15 int 459 runs 1690 yds 3.68 ypc 16 TDs

09 - 350 comp 534 passes 65.5% 4490 yds 8.4 ypa 27 TDs 13 int 428 runs 1791 yds 4.18 ypc 10 TDs

In 07 the Pass/Run ratio was 46/54, but in 08 it was 52/48 and then last year it was 56/44. Assessing the comparisons over the last three seasons doen not indicat a complete reversal to running more often than passing to me. Additionally, Willie Parker had 52 carries in the first three games where Mendenhall had only 6 and Mewelde Moore had no games last year with more than 5 rushing attempts. After the first three games, Mendenhall took over and he had ten or more rushes in every game, with 20 or more carries in seven of the eleven. In those 13 games, he averaged 18.1 rushing attempts.

I see the possibility that Mendenhall will garner less carries per game this year than he did in the final 13 games, with the rookie Dwyer and Moore spelling him more often that Parker and Moore did a year ago.

Rashard Mendenhall 16 gms 272 carries (17 per gm) 1224 yds 4.5 ypc 40 targets 30 catches 240 yds 8.0 ypc & 10 TDs

 
Somehow I don't like Mendenhall's fantasy prospects. I think he is getting picked way too early in fantasy drafts.

He's had only a couple of great games in his pro career, while being pretty mediocre for most part. He averaged 3.6 YPC in three games versus the Browns' and Chiefs' poor run defenses. Between week 10 and 17 he managed to average more than 4.0 YPC only twice.

You could say the Steelers being more run-oriented in 2010 will greatly benefit Mendenhall. But with the loss of Holmes and the suspension of Big Ben, there will be a lot more pressure on Mendenhall. I really doubt he is good and mature enough to be the focal point of the Steelers' offense.

My prediction:

290 carries, 1130 rushing yards, 3.9 YPC, 6 touchdowns

30 receptions, 205 receiving yards, 1 touchdown

 
hankey2mlh said:
Somehow I don't like Mendenhall's fantasy prospects. I think he is getting picked way too early in fantasy drafts.He's had only a couple of great games in his pro career, while being pretty mediocre for most part. He averaged 3.6 YPC in three games versus the Browns' and Chiefs' poor run defenses. Between week 10 and 17 he managed to average more than 4.0 YPC only twice.You could say the Steelers being more run-oriented in 2010 will greatly benefit Mendenhall. But with the loss of Holmes and the suspension of Big Ben, there will be a lot more pressure on Mendenhall. I really doubt he is good and mature enough to be the focal point of the Steelers' offense.My prediction:290 carries, 1130 rushing yards, 3.9 YPC, 6 touchdowns30 receptions, 205 receiving yards, 1 touchdown
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Last year was for all intents and purposes his rookie season. And even then, he only had 7 carries the first month of the season, but still put over 1,100 yards on the year. I thought he showed a lot of promise, especially since the Steelers haven't had a good offensive line in years. Sure, he was inconsistent like a lot of young players, but when he was on he looked very good. One other thing to consider, Mendenhall is definitely a back who takes some time to get into the flow and rhythm of a game. In a lot of his breakout performances he got stronger as the game went on, and ran better in the second half than the first. I know that's true of a lot of backs, but still though it was worth mentioning. He had only 6 games with 20 or more carries, but in those 6 games he had 136 carries for 692 yards (5.08 yards per carry). With more consistent carries game to game, I think that will give him more opportunities to break longer runs. I expect continued better numbers from him this year, especially since the Steelers have had a full offseason to prepare the scheme for him as the starter as opposed to Willie Parker, and with the drafting of Pouncey who should start either at RG or C from day 1.
 
hankey2mlh said:
Somehow I don't like Mendenhall's fantasy prospects. I think he is getting picked way too early in fantasy drafts.He's had only a couple of great games in his pro career, while being pretty mediocre for most part. He averaged 3.6 YPC in three games versus the Browns' and Chiefs' poor run defenses. Between week 10 and 17 he managed to average more than 4.0 YPC only twice.You could say the Steelers being more run-oriented in 2010 will greatly benefit Mendenhall. But with the loss of Holmes and the suspension of Big Ben, there will be a lot more pressure on Mendenhall. I really doubt he is good and mature enough to be the focal point of the Steelers' offense.My prediction:290 carries, 1130 rushing yards, 3.9 YPC, 6 touchdowns30 receptions, 205 receiving yards, 1 touchdown
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This is pretty much my thinking on Mendenhall as well. The Steelers look like a trainwreck to me.Bad o-line (loss of Colon didn't help, little depth or talent), no Roethlisberger for 4-6 games, not much keeping defenses honest in the passing game, and an average defense doesn't bode well for Mendenhall to have much upside. My strategy for Mendenhall if you like him would be to target him in a trade after week 4 during Pittsburgh's bye week. The guy that drafted him late first round will probably be 1-3 and scrambling. I wouldn't expect much from Rashard in those first four games with teams stacking the box and daring Leftwich to beat them.When Roethlisberger returns after the bye the schedule eases up and Mendenhall could take off for a decent finish, but I still wouldn't draft him at his ADP. I'd much rather have Michael Turner, DeAngelo Williams or Steven Jackson if I'm dead set on a running back late first round.
 
That O-Line is a mess and lefty at QB doesn't help... the 1st month is going to be rough for those people that are picking him as an RB1 / high 2nd. Honestly he'll be lucky to break 1000 rushing

 
I think Mendenhall has a chance to be the Chris Johnson of 2010. Steelers are going to be in alot of close games this year, somewhat like the Titans in 09. This is not an explosive dangerous offense as it has been the past couple of years. They are going to have to rely more on coaching, time management, and running the ball to control games this year. I see Mendenhall going for 1600 yards and 14 TDs and 400 yards receiving with a couple more TD's. I like him late in the first round.

I have him at the #6 RB on the board ahead of Williams, Jackson, and Turner. I would definitly draft him ahead of Moss, Wayne, Calvin, or even Fitz.

 
eaglezzz said:
I think Mendenhall has a chance to be the Chris Johnson of 2010. Steelers are going to be in alot of close games this year, somewhat like the Titans in 09. This is not an explosive dangerous offense as it has been the past couple of years. They are going to have to rely more on coaching, time management, and running the ball to control games this year. I see Mendenhall going for 1600 yards and 14 TDs and 400 yards receiving with a couple more TD's. I like him late in the first round. I have him at the #6 RB on the board ahead of Williams, Jackson, and Turner. I would definitly draft him ahead of Moss, Wayne, Calvin, or even Fitz.
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The Titans have arguably the best offensive line in football, the Steelers easily have an OL that is in the bottom third of the NFL. Chris Johnson is a physical specimen, while many analyses I've seen for Mendenhall call him "a body" and liken him to Matt Forte. I find it hard to see this optimism for Mendy, but I also find it hard to see the pessimism demonstrated by the above poster who said "he'll be lucky to run for 1000 yards." Any RB who gets 250-300 carries should reach 1000+ yards. I think with Mendy we're looking at a poor man's Chris Benson from 2009. Plenty of touches, but overall the offense is weak. His number of touches alone make him a safe bet to be in the 1100-1300 yard range, but with the weak OL, the loss of Holmes, and Leftwich at the helm for 6 games, I think this offense will underwhelm. I'll project:285 carries, 3.9 YPC, 1115 yards, 25 catches, 180 yards, 7 total TDs
 
eaglezzz said:
I think Mendenhall has a chance to be the Chris Johnson of 2010. Steelers are going to be in alot of close games this year, somewhat like the Titans in 09. This is not an explosive dangerous offense as it has been the past couple of years. They are going to have to rely more on coaching, time management, and running the ball to control games this year. I see Mendenhall going for 1600 yards and 14 TDs and 400 yards receiving with a couple more TD's. I like him late in the first round. I have him at the #6 RB on the board ahead of Williams, Jackson, and Turner. I would definitly draft him ahead of Moss, Wayne, Calvin, or even Fitz.
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I have a hard time seeing 2,000 total yards and 16 TDs with the offensive personnel surrounding Mendenhall.
 
Grahamburn said:
eaglezzz said:
I think Mendenhall has a chance to be the Chris Johnson of 2010. Steelers are going to be in alot of close games this year, somewhat like the Titans in 09. This is not an explosive dangerous offense as it has been the past couple of years. They are going to have to rely more on coaching, time management, and running the ball to control games this year. I see Mendenhall going for 1600 yards and 14 TDs and 400 yards receiving with a couple more TD's. I like him late in the first round. I have him at the #6 RB on the board ahead of Williams, Jackson, and Turner. I would definitly draft him ahead of Moss, Wayne, Calvin, or even Fitz.
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I have a hard time seeing 2,000 total yards and 16 TDs with the offensive personnel surrounding Mendenhall.
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I think you're overreacting to one let down year that's common after a SB season. I look at it this way: with a healthy Polamalu, they're basically fielding the same defense they did in 2008 which was one of the most historically dominant defenses in modern history through a 16 game season (and that was doing it in a league where passing and scoring is at all an time high across the board). That alone will keep them in every game and allow them to have a consistent running attack. Even in their 7 losses last season, they were lost by only a combined 28 points. The Giants lost their week 17 matchup to the Vikings by more points than the Steelers in their 7 losses combined. If their defense is elite again (and I think it will be), that's a playoff team or at the least a playoff contender. And it's not like their offense is completely barren or anything. An elite level proven QB, Hines Ward, Heath Miller, a promising young wideout in Mike Wallace, added Randle El to move back into the slot, and they drafted two receivers this offseason both of whom they really like and should make the team. Losing Colon sucks for them, but at the end of the day he was an undersized right tackle... a solid player, but nothing more than that. Also took a ton of penalties and sacks as well. The Steelers drafted Pouncey who should start at either RG or C (and by all accounts the Steelers had the worst C and RG combo in football last year in Justin Hartwig and Trai Essex). I've read that Doug Legursky may end up taking Hartwig's place (who has been unable to participate so far this offseason because of an injury), with Pouncey at RG. The line could be better this season just for getting new blood into the mix. Something else to consider: Willie Parker was the starter last season. They spent the entire offseason not knowing what they had in Mendenhall and not planning to his strengths. Over the course of the season, they found out he's also a great pass blocking back and has great hands out of the backfield to where he became their third down back as well. That's why they drafted a guy like Dwyer... they don't need a third down back because they have Mendenhall already in that role as a three down back, Dwyer is a two down back who they would hope could take a few first and second down carries away from Mendy to lessen the load. I think they'll ride Mendenhall on the ground, and they've spent this offseason planning on how to shape the offense to his strengths and better take advantage of him in the passing game. I'm not saying he's going to be the next Ray Rice in that regard, but I think he'll get a significant amount more catches this year than he did last. I don't think he'll be a top five fantasy back, but I think he'll be good value for where he's getting drafted.
 
KellysHeroes said:
That O-Line is a mess and lefty at QB doesn't help... the 1st month is going to be rough for those people that are picking him as an RB1 / high 2nd. Honestly he'll be lucky to break 1000 rushing
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:shrug: He averaged 4.6 yards/carry last year. Even if you think that drops dramatically down to 4.0 yards/carry because of the offensive downgrades then he would still only need 250 carries to break 1000 yards. He had 235 last year in 13 games started.

 
LTF said:
I think you're overreacting to one let down year that's common after a SB season.

I look at it this way: with a healthy Polamalu, they're basically fielding the same defense they did in 2008 which was one of the most historically dominant defenses in modern history through a 16 game season (and that was doing it in a league where passing and scoring is at all an time high across the board). That alone will keep them in every game and allow them to have a consistent running attack. Even in their 7 losses last season, they were lost by only a combined 28 points. The Giants lost their week 17 matchup to the Vikings by more points than the Steelers in their 7 losses combined.

If their defense is elite again (and I think it will be), that's a playoff team or at the least a playoff contender. And it's not like their offense is completely barren or anything. An elite level proven QB, Hines Ward, Heath Miller, a promising young wideout in Mike Wallace, added Randle El to move back into the slot, and they drafted two receivers this offseason both of whom they really like and should make the team. Losing Colon sucks for them, but at the end of the day he was an undersized right tackle... a solid player, but nothing more than that. Also took a ton of penalties and sacks as well. The Steelers drafted Pouncey who should start at either RG or C (and by all accounts the Steelers had the worst C and RG combo in football last year in Justin Hartwig and Trai Essex). I've read that Doug Legursky may end up taking Hartwig's place (who has been unable to participate so far this offseason because of an injury), with Pouncey at RG. The line could be better this season just for getting new blood into the mix.

Something else to consider: Willie Parker was the starter last season. They spent the entire offseason not knowing what they had in Mendenhall and not planning to his strengths. Over the course of the season, they found out he's also a great pass blocking back and has great hands out of the backfield to where he became their third down back as well. That's why they drafted a guy like Dwyer... they don't need a third down back because they have Mendenhall already in that role as a three down back, Dwyer is a two down back who they would hope could take a few first and second down carries away from Mendy to lessen the load.

I think they'll ride Mendenhall on the ground, and they've spent this offseason planning on how to shape the offense to his strengths and better take advantage of him in the passing game. I'm not saying he's going to be the next Ray Rice in that regard, but I think he'll get a significant amount more catches this year than he did last.

I don't think he'll be a top five fantasy back, but I think he'll be good value for where he's getting drafted.
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All I said was not to expect 2,000 yards and 16 TDs. That seems pretty reasonable to me considering these circumstances.The Steeler offensive line was pretty poor before Colon got hurt. He wasn't all that great of a tackle, I get that, but he was Pittsburgh's best run blocking tackle. Aren't Trai Essex and Hartwig still going to start? Even if Legursky starts over Hartwig, is he really an upgrade?! He's an undrafted free agent that only made the team because of injuries. This line is not deep and there isn't a whole lot of talent on it other than Pouncey who is a rookie.

Even if the offense is centered around Mendenhall it won't matter much if defenses don't respect the passing game and he's getting hit in the backfield.

Hines Ward is aging and isn't much of a downfield threat. Wallace can get deep but will his routes have time to develop with that line? This team is really going to miss Santonio. Are Randle El and the two rookies you mention going to make up for his loss?

They might have an elite QB after the bye week. We don't know that yet. Leftwich looks to be the QB for at least the first four weeks. Pittsburgh could easily be 1-3 and quite possible 0-4 to start the season with games against Atlanta, @ Tennessee, @ Tampa Bay, and Baltimore at home.

I'm not hitching my 13 week fantasy wagon to a player that is going to see 8 and 9 man fronts for at least the first four games of the year. Anyone drafting him as a RB1 is going to be really frustrated at the beginning of the season. Mendenhall is going to get his share of touches. I don't doubt that. I just don't think they're going to be highly productive ones.

DeAngelo Williams has a similar ADP, runs behind a dominant offensive line, and scored only 6 fewer fantasy points than Mendenhall in 2009 with 22 fewer touches. I much prefer his upside at that point in a draft.

 
I see Mendy as presenting some value. I think due to a lot of things, (defense getting back to full strength, Willie Parker shipped off, Ben out for minimum four games which forces them to adjust their pre-season parctices to support the run more.) Mendy is in great shape to do very well this year. He is not a bad runner by any means (averaged 4.6 last year) and he is good at pass blocking and is an efficient receiver which means he should be out there for three downs. I think he is good for 300 carries this year, as he will be one of the league's few remaining bell cows. As I stated before, I think he will be in on third downs and I see his receptions being in the 35-40 neighborhood.

Tomlin has said that he thinks that Mendy will be the short yardage back next year (per scott brown of the Tribune).

All this adds up to, IMHO:

Mendenhall: 300/1,300/12 35/350/3

 
I've learned to be cautious of come bets, especially in the first round, and especially with so many things in transition. With an ADP of 1.10, I will likely be looking at DeAngelo, a QB, or a WR. If he's there in the mid-late second round, he'd be a great pick. He won't be, so there you go.

1050 yards rushing, 180 yards receiving, 9 TDs.

RB15

 
footballman_696969 said:
KellysHeroes said:
That O-Line is a mess and lefty at QB doesn't help... the 1st month is going to be rough for those people that are picking him as an RB1 / high 2nd. Honestly he'll be lucky to break 1000 rushing
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:goodposting: He averaged 4.6 yards/carry last year. Even if you think that drops dramatically down to 4.0 yards/carry because of the offensive downgrades then he would still only need 250 carries to break 1000 yards. He had 235 last year in 13 games started.
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I'll readjust

300 carries at 3.7 = 1110 yds / however after thinking it over he may have a decent Rec total, like high 30s. Lord knows how many TD chances he'll get during the games Ben is out.

With Lefty's slow release they'll need Mendy pass blocking more than running a route; but I'm sure he'll get a bunch of flickers towards him that just miss the 1st down marker.

Still, not what I want for an RB1

PPR ADP of 1.10 is crazy, I much rather have a Top WR and then hope for a player like Greene and Stewart to come my way.

Non PPR is value is a little bit better: Player 16 or mid 2nd which seems about right

 
I think Dwyer is a real wildcard on Mendenhall's production, in GL touches moreso than touches overall. As a rookie it would be hard to expect Dwyer to get a lot of carries around the endzone, but Mendenhall's GL ability is one of the things least impressive about him IMO, and if he falters, Dwyer might start seeing a lot chances for easy TD's. That said, I think theyll really lean on Mendenhall while Roethlisberger is out and he'll be fairly successful. In any scenario outside of injury, I think Mendenhall is pretty much a lock for double digit TD's.

290carries/1218yds

12TDs

38rec/350yds

2TDs

 
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There are some monster RB seasons being posted in here, but most of them seem to be coming from people that live in Pennsylvania so I'll take them with a grain of salt.

The Pittsburgh Steelers had a total of 11 TDs (rushing and receiving) from their running backs in 2009. What has occurred with this team that makes so many of you think that total is going to improve at such an enormous degree?! Weaker offensive line, less weapons at WR, and well below average QB play for 4-6 games. That's at least 1/3 and possibly 1/2 of your fantasy season. Byron Leftwich isn't going to scare anyone out of Mendenhall's mouthpiece.

Where's the upside here?! I don't see a situation here where this guy is going to help you win your league.

Is he talented enough to put up numbers similar to Steven Jackson and carry the team on his back when the supporting cast around him is going to be this weak?! I'll let someone else find out.

 
I view grant as a safer mendenhall and agree with the argument that mendy lacks upside with his situation around him. Im also tired of being the guy that drafts the safe plodding rbs that workhorse their way to 1100 yds and 9 tds. I want the guys that can take any carry to the house and are explosive like deangelo (who im not that high on), CJ obviosly and charles. But thats just me, theres risk in every pick and safe runners are exactly that, safe.

 
hankey2mlh said:
Somehow I don't like Mendenhall's fantasy prospects. I think he is getting picked way too early in fantasy drafts.He's had only a couple of great games in his pro career, while being pretty mediocre for most part. He averaged 3.6 YPC in three games versus the Browns' and Chiefs' poor run defenses. Between week 10 and 17 he managed to average more than 4.0 YPC only twice.You could say the Steelers being more run-oriented in 2010 will greatly benefit Mendenhall. But with the loss of Holmes and the suspension of Big Ben, there will be a lot more pressure on Mendenhall. I really doubt he is good and mature enough to be the focal point of the Steelers' offense.My prediction:290 carries, 1130 rushing yards, 3.9 YPC, 6 touchdowns30 receptions, 205 receiving yards, 1 touchdown
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Barring injury, no way he only rushes for 6 tds.
 
Grahamburn said:
There are some monster RB seasons being posted in here, but most of them seem to be coming from people that live in Pennsylvania so I'll take them with a grain of salt.

The Pittsburgh Steelers had a total of 11 TDs (rushing and receiving) from their running backs in 2009. What has occurred with this team that makes so many of you think that total is going to improve at such an enormous degree?! Weaker offensive line, less weapons at WR, and well below average QB play for 4-6 games. That's at least 1/3 and possibly 1/2 of your fantasy season. Byron Leftwich isn't going to scare anyone out of Mendenhall's mouthpiece.

Where's the upside here?! I don't see a situation here where this guy is going to help you win your league.

Is he talented enough to put up numbers similar to Steven Jackson and carry the team on his back when the supporting cast around him is going to be this weak?! I'll let someone else find out.
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Like I said above, the defense is back to being healthy (and is one of the best in the league). That alone should mean that he gets a lot of touches. There is no confusion as to who the bell cow is this year; FWP is gone and there is no competition for the starting role. Mendenhall has proven himself to be a good receiver and surprisingly a very good pass blocker, which will keep him in on third down. Tomlin has expressed his desire to have Mendy be the goal line back as well. I agree that no big bens MIGHT hurt his production, but keep in mind that this is not a surprise to anyone on that team. They have months to prepare te playbook for those first four games. Leftwich is not Big Ben, but he isn't a turd either and can manage games efficiently while they play tough defense and ...clock management through the ground game. How is this not beneficial to Mendy?

So to recap...

Unquestioned starter: check

Top Flight Defense: check

third down RB: check

Goal line RB: check

potential for heavy doses of running: check

honestly, name me another RB in a similar situation besides maybe CJ and ADP.

 
unckeyherb said:
Grahamburn said:
There are some monster RB seasons being posted in here, but most of them seem to be coming from people that live in Pennsylvania so I'll take them with a grain of salt.

The Pittsburgh Steelers had a total of 11 TDs (rushing and receiving) from their running backs in 2009. What has occurred with this team that makes so many of you think that total is going to improve at such an enormous degree?! Weaker offensive line, less weapons at WR, and well below average QB play for 4-6 games. That's at least 1/3 and possibly 1/2 of your fantasy season. Byron Leftwich isn't going to scare anyone out of Mendenhall's mouthpiece.

Where's the upside here?! I don't see a situation here where this guy is going to help you win your league.

Is he talented enough to put up numbers similar to Steven Jackson and carry the team on his back when the supporting cast around him is going to be this weak?! I'll let someone else find out.
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Like I said above, the defense is back to being healthy (and is one of the best in the league). That alone should mean that he gets a lot of touches. There is no confusion as to who the bell cow is this year; FWP is gone and there is no competition for the starting role. Mendenhall has proven himself to be a good receiver and surprisingly a very good pass blocker, which will keep him in on third down. Tomlin has expressed his desire to have Mendy be the goal line back as well. I agree that no big bens MIGHT hurt his production, but keep in mind that this is not a surprise to anyone on that team. They have months to prepare te playbook for those first four games. Leftwich is not Big Ben, but he isn't a turd either and can manage games efficiently while they play tough defense and ...clock management through the ground game. How is this not beneficial to Mendy?

So to recap...

Unquestioned starter: check

Top Flight Defense: check

third down RB: check

Goal line RB: check

potential for heavy doses of running: check

honestly, name me another RB in a similar situation besides maybe CJ and ADP.
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GoreGrant

Deangelo

Benson

Shonn Green

Mathews

Turner

 
bigmiiiiike said:
unckeyherb said:
Grahamburn said:
There are some monster RB seasons being posted in here, but most of them seem to be coming from people that live in Pennsylvania so I'll take them with a grain of salt.

The Pittsburgh Steelers had a total of 11 TDs (rushing and receiving) from their running backs in 2009. What has occurred with this team that makes so many of you think that total is going to improve at such an enormous degree?! Weaker offensive line, less weapons at WR, and well below average QB play for 4-6 games. That's at least 1/3 and possibly 1/2 of your fantasy season. Byron Leftwich isn't going to scare anyone out of Mendenhall's mouthpiece.

Where's the upside here?! I don't see a situation here where this guy is going to help you win your league.

Is he talented enough to put up numbers similar to Steven Jackson and carry the team on his back when the supporting cast around him is going to be this weak?! I'll let someone else find out.
Click to expand...
Like I said above, the defense is back to being healthy (and is one of the best in the league). That alone should mean that he gets a lot of touches. There is no confusion as to who the bell cow is this year; FWP is gone and there is no competition for the starting role. Mendenhall has proven himself to be a good receiver and surprisingly a very good pass blocker, which will keep him in on third down. Tomlin has expressed his desire to have Mendy be the goal line back as well. I agree that no big bens MIGHT hurt his production, but keep in mind that this is not a surprise to anyone on that team. They have months to prepare te playbook for those first four games. Leftwich is not Big Ben, but he isn't a turd either and can manage games efficiently while they play tough defense and ...clock management through the ground game. How is this not beneficial to Mendy?

So to recap...

Unquestioned starter: check

Top Flight Defense: check

third down RB: check

Goal line RB: check

potential for heavy doses of running: check

honestly, name me another RB in a similar situation besides maybe CJ and ADP.
Click to expand...
Gore-okayGrant-one of the heaviest passing offenses in the league

Deangelo-Stewart cuts out half his carries

Benson-not nearly a top defense, might be in trouble with law

Shonn Green-Do you not see LT as being the third down/goaline back?

Mathews-Sproles is their third down back and they have a huge passing game, relying on Rivers' arm.

Turner-okay
Click to expand...
So where do you see Mendenhall as far as production goes, then?
 
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zoonation said:
hankey2mlh said:
Somehow I don't like Mendenhall's fantasy prospects. I think he is getting picked way too early in fantasy drafts.He's had only a couple of great games in his pro career, while being pretty mediocre for most part. He averaged 3.6 YPC in three games versus the Browns' and Chiefs' poor run defenses. Between week 10 and 17 he managed to average more than 4.0 YPC only twice.You could say the Steelers being more run-oriented in 2010 will greatly benefit Mendenhall. But with the loss of Holmes and the suspension of Big Ben, there will be a lot more pressure on Mendenhall. I really doubt he is good and mature enough to be the focal point of the Steelers' offense.My prediction:290 carries, 1130 rushing yards, 3.9 YPC, 6 touchdowns30 receptions, 205 receiving yards, 1 touchdown
Click to expand...
Barring injury, no way he only rushes for 6 tds.
Click to expand...
IIRC willieparker only ran for 2 tds in a season right after he had 16tds in a season. TDs are unpredictable and can have peaks and valleys
 
unckeyherb said:
Like I said above, the defense is back to being healthy (and is one of the best in the league). That alone should mean that he gets a lot of touches. There is no confusion as to who the bell cow is this year; FWP is gone and there is no competition for the starting role. Mendenhall has proven himself to be a good receiver and surprisingly a very good pass blocker, which will keep him in on third down. Tomlin has expressed his desire to have Mendy be the goal line back as well. I agree that no big bens MIGHT hurt his production, but keep in mind that this is not a surprise to anyone on that team. They have months to prepare te playbook for those first four games. Leftwich is not Big Ben, but he isn't a turd either and can manage games efficiently while they play tough defense and ...clock management through the ground game. How is this not beneficial to Mendy?So to recap...Unquestioned starter: checkTop Flight Defense: checkthird down RB: checkGoal line RB: checkpotential for heavy doses of running: checkhonestly, name me another RB in a similar situation besides maybe CJ and ADP.
Click to expand...
I haven't put into question Mendenhall's status as a 3 down do it all back, and I expect alot of touches for him. They just shouldn't be expected to result in a RB1 type of season. There are going to be some games where Mendenhall kills your fantasy team. I think he's a talented player, but he's not in a situation right now where I want to invest a first round pick. I'd prefer a player with less question marks. Dwyer could take some short yardage and goalline touches as well.I know what some of the other RBs around Mendenhall's ADP can do in their given situations. I have no idea what Rashard can do with an injury riddled below average offensive line, a retread QB, and no other playmakers to take any of the defensive focus away, and I don't really want to pay that price to find out. I don't see it being all that great of a season for him.
 
The Steelers drafted Mendenhall as a 20-year old pup with the idea of grooming him for this day. In the past two seasons Mendenhall has had his share of ups and downs learning to be an NFL running back. At 23 now is his time and the Steelers will give him every opportunity to shine, especially with Roethlisberger out. Mewelde Moore may steal a 3rd down from him here and there and someone else may take a goalline carry now and then but Mendenhall will get all he can eat this year. I also think his receiving skills are underrated. He wasn't utilized a whole lot in the passing game last year but when he was he hit for some big runs after the catch. Many have mentioned the Steelers OL as a stumbling block. Colon's injury hurts them on the edge but the Steelers guards with Pouncey and Kemoeatu will be as good as they've been in years. The only thing preventing Mendenhall from reaching elite numbers is health.

300 carries for 1300 yards (4.3)

35 catches for 300 yards (8.6)

12 TD

 
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unckeyherb said:
bigmiiiiike said:
unckeyherb said:
Grahamburn said:
There are some monster RB seasons being posted in here, but most of them seem to be coming from people that live in Pennsylvania so I'll take them with a grain of salt.

The Pittsburgh Steelers had a total of 11 TDs (rushing and receiving) from their running backs in 2009. What has occurred with this team that makes so many of you think that total is going to improve at such an enormous degree?! Weaker offensive line, less weapons at WR, and well below average QB play for 4-6 games. That's at least 1/3 and possibly 1/2 of your fantasy season. Byron Leftwich isn't going to scare anyone out of Mendenhall's mouthpiece.

Where's the upside here?! I don't see a situation here where this guy is going to help you win your league.

Is he talented enough to put up numbers similar to Steven Jackson and carry the team on his back when the supporting cast around him is going to be this weak?! I'll let someone else find out.
Click to expand...
Like I said above, the defense is back to being healthy (and is one of the best in the league). That alone should mean that he gets a lot of touches. There is no confusion as to who the bell cow is this year; FWP is gone and there is no competition for the starting role. Mendenhall has proven himself to be a good receiver and surprisingly a very good pass blocker, which will keep him in on third down. Tomlin has expressed his desire to have Mendy be the goal line back as well. I agree that no big bens MIGHT hurt his production, but keep in mind that this is not a surprise to anyone on that team. They have months to prepare te playbook for those first four games. Leftwich is not Big Ben, but he isn't a turd either and can manage games efficiently while they play tough defense and ...clock management through the ground game. How is this not beneficial to Mendy?

So to recap...

Unquestioned starter: check

Top Flight Defense: check

third down RB: check

Goal line RB: check

potential for heavy doses of running: check

honestly, name me another RB in a similar situation besides maybe CJ and ADP.
Click to expand...
Gore-okayGrant-one of the heaviest passing offenses in the league

Deangelo-Stewart cuts out half his carries

Benson-not nearly a top defense, might be in trouble with law

Shonn Green-Do you not see LT as being the third down/goaline back?

Mathews-Sproles is their third down back and they have a huge passing game, relying on Rivers' arm.

Turner-okay
Click to expand...
So where do you see Mendenhall as far as production goes, then?
Click to expand...
The seven guys I listed obviously don't all perfectly meet your criteria, and I don't count having a good passing offense as something that necessarily limits the rushing work load. I'd draft Gore, Deangelo and Turner all above Mendenhall in nonPPR. I'd probably take Mendenhall over Benson and Mathews, and would have a hard time deciding between him and Green. I posted above my projection for Mendenhall as: 285 carries, 3.9 YPC, 1115 yards, 25 catches, 180 yards, 7 total TDs

 
bigmiiiiike said:
unckeyherb said:
bigmiiiiike said:
unckeyherb said:
Grahamburn said:
There are some monster RB seasons being posted in here, but most of them seem to be coming from people that live in Pennsylvania so I'll take them with a grain of salt.

The Pittsburgh Steelers had a total of 11 TDs (rushing and receiving) from their running backs in 2009. What has occurred with this team that makes so many of you think that total is going to improve at such an enormous degree?! Weaker offensive line, less weapons at WR, and well below average QB play for 4-6 games. That's at least 1/3 and possibly 1/2 of your fantasy season. Byron Leftwich isn't going to scare anyone out of Mendenhall's mouthpiece.

Where's the upside here?! I don't see a situation here where this guy is going to help you win your league.

Is he talented enough to put up numbers similar to Steven Jackson and carry the team on his back when the supporting cast around him is going to be this weak?! I'll let someone else find out.
Click to expand...
Like I said above, the defense is back to being healthy (and is one of the best in the league). That alone should mean that he gets a lot of touches. There is no confusion as to who the bell cow is this year; FWP is gone and there is no competition for the starting role. Mendenhall has proven himself to be a good receiver and surprisingly a very good pass blocker, which will keep him in on third down. Tomlin has expressed his desire to have Mendy be the goal line back as well. I agree that no big bens MIGHT hurt his production, but keep in mind that this is not a surprise to anyone on that team. They have months to prepare te playbook for those first four games. Leftwich is not Big Ben, but he isn't a turd either and can manage games efficiently while they play tough defense and ...clock management through the ground game. How is this not beneficial to Mendy?

So to recap...

Unquestioned starter: check

Top Flight Defense: check

third down RB: check

Goal line RB: check

potential for heavy doses of running: check

honestly, name me another RB in a similar situation besides maybe CJ and ADP.
Click to expand...
Gore-okayGrant-one of the heaviest passing offenses in the league

Deangelo-Stewart cuts out half his carries

Benson-not nearly a top defense, might be in trouble with law

Shonn Green-Do you not see LT as being the third down/goaline back?

Mathews-Sproles is their third down back and they have a huge passing game, relying on Rivers' arm.

Turner-okay
Click to expand...
So where do you see Mendenhall as far as production goes, then?
Click to expand...
The seven guys I listed obviously don't all perfectly meet your criteria, and I don't count having a good passing offense as something that necessarily limits the rushing work load. I'd draft Gore, Deangelo and Turner all above Mendenhall in nonPPR. I'd probably take Mendenhall over Benson and Mathews, and would have a hard time deciding between him and Green. I posted above my projection for Mendenhall as: 285 carries, 3.9 YPC, 1115 yards, 25 catches, 180 yards, 7 total TDs
Click to expand...
Fair enough. You and I seem to agree with his touches; we are within 1 carry per game and less than a reception per game between us.The big difference is what we are projecting he will do with those touches. Whats the reason that you think he will drop almost a yard per carry and over 3 yards per catch from last year?

 
unckeyherb said:
Whats the reason that you think he will drop almost a yard per carry and over 3 yards per catch from last year?
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I think the reasoning for some people being down on Mendenhall has been stressed in here quite a bit. Mendenhall averaged 4.6 ypc and 10.4 ypr in 2009. Injuries and overall weakness on the offensive line, loss of Santonio Holmes, and no Roethlisberger for 4-6 games are not positive things. With the expected increase in touches in 2010 we should also expect a decrease in those per touch averages across the board. All of this is barring injury by the way. These 320+ touches everyone is projecting for Mendenhall maxes him out. He doesn't have anywhere to go but down from there. Unlike a player with similar ADP, DeAngelo Williams, who will likely equal Mendenhall in production with considerably fewer touches, but has top 3 upside potential should Jonathan Stewart miss any time.
 
Grahamburn said:
unckeyherb said:
Whats the reason that you think he will drop almost a yard per carry and over 3 yards per catch from last year?
Click to expand...
I think the reasoning for some people being down on Mendenhall has been stressed in here quite a bit. Mendenhall averaged 4.6 ypc and 10.4 ypr in 2009. Injuries and overall weakness on the offensive line, loss of Santonio Holmes, and no Roethlisberger for 4-6 games are not positive things. With the expected increase in touches in 2010 we should also expect a decrease in those per touch averages across the board. All of this is barring injury by the way. These 320+ touches everyone is projecting for Mendenhall maxes him out. He doesn't have anywhere to go but down from there. Unlike a player with similar ADP, DeAngelo Williams, who will likely equal Mendenhall in production with considerably fewer touches, but has top 3 upside potential should Jonathan Stewart miss any time.
Click to expand...
I don't know why it's heresy to think that a player could get close to 400 touches as a ceiling. I don't think Mendenhall is maxing out at 320 touches. Chris Johnson and Steven Jackson both had around touches last season and so did Forte, AP, and Turner the year before. It's not out of the realm of possibility for Mendenhall this season. And most of the players I just listed weren't less effective per touch just because they got more touches. At least that's what I think his ceiling is. With that being said, I have to agree with the above poster because I think DeAngelo is the more talented player. Personally, I'm not sure if Mendenhall is a first round type of talent.
 
Grahamburn said:
unckeyherb said:
Whats the reason that you think he will drop almost a yard per carry and over 3 yards per catch from last year?
Click to expand...
I think the reasoning for some people being down on Mendenhall has been stressed in here quite a bit. Mendenhall averaged 4.6 ypc and 10.4 ypr in 2009. Injuries and overall weakness on the offensive line, loss of Santonio Holmes, and no Roethlisberger for 4-6 games are not positive things. With the expected increase in touches in 2010 we should also expect a decrease in those per touch averages across the board. All of this is barring injury by the way. These 320+ touches everyone is projecting for Mendenhall maxes him out. He doesn't have anywhere to go but down from there. Unlike a player with similar ADP, DeAngelo Williams, who will likely equal Mendenhall in production with considerably fewer touches, but has top 3 upside potential should Jonathan Stewart miss any time.
Click to expand...
You're also assuming he's not going to make significant improvements his second year as a starter compared to last year, which was basically his rookie season, and I personally don't agree with that assumption. With a full year under his belt and another full off season to prepare (and with a full off season for the coaching staff to design the offense more to his strengths, as opposed to Willie Parker who entered last season as the starter), I wouldn't be surprised to see him really bust out. Not only will he get more touches this season on the ground as the starter from day one, but he should also see an increased workload as a receiver as well, especially with Holmes gone and the offense geared towards Mendenhall more. One of the reasons they really like Pouncey was because he was a very athletic interior lineman who can get out in front of plays and block guys 10-15 yards up field. I expect to see the Steelers work more of that into their offense. Losing Holmes is big, they've got a young second year receiver in Mike Wallace who should be much improved, added Randle El back as the slot receiver (after the Redskins made the mistake of paying him big money to be a #2 to Santana Moss which he never was), Heath Miller is young and entering his prime, and they added a couple of promising rookies to the mix as well. From the way you talk it seems like you think the Steelers are going to be a pedestrian offense with teams stacking the box with 8 or 9 defenders. This is a Bruce Arians offense. They will spread the field with 4 and 5 wide and sling it all over the field (unless Dixon is the starter, and then you'll see a more simplified offense). There will be lanes to run through, especially with Ben back. I mean, this is a team that lost Plaxico Burress to free agency and then won the SB with Cedric Wilson as a starting wideout. They're used to filling in holes and guys stepping up. I personally don't think he'll be a top 5 back this season, but I wouldn't be surprised if he busted out and put up those kinds of numbers. Last year was basically his rookie season. If he shows significant improvement his second year as starter, with the workload he'll likely get, it wouldn't surprise me at all.
 
LTF said:
You're also assuming he's not going to make significant improvements his second year as a starter compared to last year, which was basically his rookie season, and I personally don't agree with that assumption. With a full year under his belt and another full off season to prepare (and with a full off season for the coaching staff to design the offense more to his strengths, as opposed to Willie Parker who entered last season as the starter), I wouldn't be surprised to see him really bust out. Not only will he get more touches this season on the ground as the starter from day one, but he should also see an increased workload as a receiver as well, especially with Holmes gone and the offense geared towards Mendenhall more. One of the reasons they really like Pouncey was because he was a very athletic interior lineman who can get out in front of plays and block guys 10-15 yards up field. I expect to see the Steelers work more of that into their offense.
Click to expand...
I'm not making any assumptions.Mendenhall could be the exact same caliber of running back that he was in 2009 and still have his numbers regress based on the changes to the offense. It's a fact that the Steelers' best run blocking tackle has been lost for the season. It's a fact that Ben Roethlisberger will miss at least the first four games, and it's a fact that Santonio Holmes now plays for the NY Jets. Those are major losses from the 2009 team.

They can't give the ball to Mendenhall every play. The Steelers are going to struggle to sustain offense and put up points in my opinion.

And why does everyone assume players simply improve because "they have another year under their belt?" You mention it again below with Mike Wallace. Every NFL player would be an All-Pro if they improved just by showing up for the next season.

Losing Holmes is big, they've got a young second year receiver in Mike Wallace who should be much improved, added Randle El back as the slot receiver (after the Redskins made the mistake of paying him big money to be a #2 to Santana Moss which he never was), Heath Miller is young and entering his prime, and they added a couple of promising rookies to the mix as well. From the way you talk it seems like you think the Steelers are going to be a pedestrian offense with teams stacking the box with 8 or 9 defenders. This is a Bruce Arians offense. They will spread the field with 4 and 5 wide and sling it all over the field (unless Dixon is the starter, and then you'll see a more simplified offense). There will be lanes to run through, especially with Ben back. I mean, this is a team that lost Plaxico Burress to free agency and then won the SB with Cedric Wilson as a starting wideout. They're used to filling in holes and guys stepping up.
Click to expand...
I don't see how going 4 or 5 wide and slinging it with Byron Leftwich as the QB is a good thing for Rashard Mendenhall. Lord Byron probably won't last long behind that line if they enter the season with that approach.
I personally don't think he'll be a top 5 back this season, but I wouldn't be surprised if he busted out and put up those kinds of numbers. Last year was basically his rookie season. If he shows significant improvement his second year as starter, with the workload he'll likely get, it wouldn't surprise me at all.
Click to expand...
I'd say he's probably a top 15-20 back for this season. I'll reiterate again what I said earlier in the thread regarding starting your fantasy season with Rashard Mendenhall as your RB1. They're at home for Atlanta and Baltimore, and on the road for Tampa Bay and Tennessee. They have a bye in week 5. Those first four games are going to be ugly with Leftwich as the starting QB. Rashard may put up decent numbers because of the number of touches he'll receive, but they'll be closer to low RB2 numbers. I can't spend a first round pick on a guy that's going to be mediocre for at least 5 weeks.

A normal fantasy season is only 13 weeks before the playoffs start. Even if Mendenhall can really turn it on after the bye when Big Ben returns we've already been through almost HALF of the fantasy season! My strategy for Mendenhall would be to target him in a trade after the Baltimore game, because his owner is going to feel like an idiot for drafting him, he'll need a RB to cover Pittsburgh's bye, and he'll be scrambling to salvage his season.

 
I'll second the argument that with RBs at least, you shouldn't assume that year n+1 > year n. Forte and Slaton didn't look any better in '09 than they did in '08, but I remember several discussions here where people were touting things like "their '08 stats are their floor for '09." The bottom line is that Pittsburgh's situation will be significantly worse than it has been in the past few years. I'd say that last statement is universally shared by the football community, with the OL injury, Big Ben suspension, and Holmes loss, but apparently it's not. I'm also not convinced that Big Ben will step right into the lineup and be clicking on all cylinders from snap #1 either. These are enough to make me question him in Round 1 or early Round 2.

 
Grahamburn said:
And why does everyone assume players simply improve because "they have another year under their belt?" You mention it again below with Mike Wallace. Every NFL player would be an All-Pro if they improved just by showing up for the next season.
Click to expand...
While this is true, IMO Mendenhall is someone who looks like a strong candidate to display improved skills this year and possibly over the next couple years. As someone who watched him a ton his last year at Illinois and his entire career for the Steelers so far, Mendenhall has made a lot of strides over the last year. He did not look very good - truthfully, he looked straight bad - in the preseason his rookie year, and his performance then and during the limited 08 season had many people here questioning if he'd ever be even a RB2 caliber fantasy player. Last year he showed improvements across the board, and began to trust his instincts more which to me is the key to him becoming an elite RB in the NFL.Although as you have said the Steelers O has not improved from 09 to 2010, I wouldnt be so quick to think it will significantly regress, and Mendenhall improving and taking a more important role is 1 reason why. Also, their schedule the first 4 games of their year isnt so tough to expect that the Steelers offense will struggle without Roethlisberger. Yes, its hard to project how good a defense will be year to year, but ATL, TEN, and TB were all 21st or worse in total yards allowed per game last year, and 17th or worse in TD's allowed (with TEN and TB being in the bottom 6).
 
bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
zoonation said:
Barring injury, no way he only rushes for 6 tds.
Click to expand...
IIRC willieparker only ran for 2 tds in a season right after he had 16tds in a season. TDs are unpredictable and can have peaks and valleys
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Yes, but I think most people would think 2TDs in a season is much closer to the norm than 16TDs for the type of RB FWP is. He had 13 rushing TDs that year, and in no other year in his career (thus far), has he had more than 5.Mendenhall's skillset is a whole other animal compared to FWP, and on an offense this good - and 1 where he could be the breadwinner the first 4 weeks - Id be extremely surprised if he ended up with less than double digit TDs in 2010 (barring injury). The amount of red zone touches he gets should be quite high.
 
Team Rushing Totals (with leading rusher) under Arians Coordination:

2001 - 417/1351/8 (James Jackson, 195 carries | RBBC with Jamel White, 126 carries)

2002 - 406/1615/10 (William Green, 243 carries)

2003 - 412/1670/8 (William Green, 142 carries, injured | back-up James Jackson, 102 carries)

2007 - 511/2068/9 (Willie Parker, 321 carries)

2008 - 460/1690/16 (Willie Parker, 210 carries, injured | Mewelde Moore 140 carries)

2009 - 428/1793/10 (Mendenhall, 242 carries | took over for Parker, 98 carries)

Average team carries = 439

Average lead RB carries = 303

Average STEELER carries = 466

Average lead STEELER carries = 337

Do with that what you will.

 
From Football Outsiders mailbag:

Warholabowie: Rashard Mendenhall: Currently the second-best ranked player, Green risk AND some playoff bonus?!?! I find it hard to imagine that it's just because of: 1) Big Ben's suspension 2) no Santonio Holmes 3) no Willie Parker. Did the Steelers improve their o-line? Did they get an easy-to-run against schedule? I'm very interested to see why KUBIAK thinks so highly of Mendenhall.

Aaron Schatz: So, this seems to be the most controversial projection in this year's KUBIAK. Not a shock, because Mendenhall is our "surprise entry" into 2010's fantasy top five. It is a little weird for people to be that surprised, because it isn't like the same five running backs repeat as the most valuable players in fantasy football year after year. Nonetheless, let's go through some reasons.

1) He has no job competition. The backup running back, Mewelde Moore, is basically just a third-down back. Third-stringer Jonathan Dwyer is a promising late-round draft pick, but still just a late-round draft pick. There aren't going to be a lot of running backs with less competition for carries -- and two of them are the player ranking ahead of Mendenhall in standard leagues (Chris Johnson) and one of the three players who rank ahead of Mendenhall in PPR leagues (Maurice Jones-Drew).

2) Pittsburgh will run much more than in 2009. If you've read the book, you already know that we're going against conventional wisdom by projecting a defense-driven playoff appearance for Pittsburgh despite the Roethlisberger suspension and other issues. More wins means more carries and more touchdowns. In addition, it's pretty darn likely that the Pittsburgh offense will feature a higher percentage of runs in the first six weeks with someone other than Roethlisberger under center.

3) Schedule does play a factor. Projecting run defense is a lot harder than projecting pass defense, but we know that the defenses of the AFC East and the NFC South are both generally better against the pass than against the run.

4) General trends are in Mendenhall's favor. We're talking about a first-round pick in his third season moving into the starting lineup. That's usually a recipe for success. Two-year similarity scores for Mendenhall highlight a good number of breakout running backs. The most similar two-year span belonged to Wendell Tyler in 1978-1979, which doesn't tell us anything because Tyler injured his hip in an offseason auto accident and only played four games at the end of 1980. However, the second most similar span belongs to Rudi Johnson in 2002-2003. Like Mendenhall, Johnson took carries away from a struggling veteran and then took over the starting job the next season -- with a dozen touchdowns and over 1,400 yards.

Other similar players and what happened to them the next season:

[*]Breakouts: Willie Parker 2004-2005, Duce Staley 1997-1998, Ahman Green 1999-2000

[*]Stayed Same: Earnest Jackson 1983-1984, Chris Brown 2003-2004, Jamal Anderson 1995-1996

[*]Disappointments: John Settle 1987-1988, Derrick Fenner 1989-1990

[*]Fewer Carries, Better Results: Stacey Mack 2000-2001
Click to expand...
 
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RalphMouth said:
Childress said:
From the CBS newwire

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/players/playe...hard-mendenhall

RB Rashard Mendenhall was back at full speed Friday after nursing a bad toe. Mendenhall wasn't used in short-yardage or goal-line situations. Further indication that Isaac Redman will be the short-yardage back
Click to expand...
Mendy was just moved down my draft board & Matthews and Grant are now ahead of him.
Click to expand...
Redman might not even make the final roster. Id take that info with a grain of salt.
 
Kenny Powers said:
RalphMouth said:
Childress said:
From the CBS newwire

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/players/playe...hard-mendenhall

RB Rashard Mendenhall was back at full speed Friday after nursing a bad toe. Mendenhall wasn't used in short-yardage or goal-line situations. Further indication that Isaac Redman will be the short-yardage back
Click to expand...
Mendy was just moved down my draft board & Matthews and Grant are now ahead of him.
Click to expand...
Redman might not even make the final roster. Id take that info with a grain of salt.
Click to expand...
I think Redman is a lock to make the roster. He will get short yardage work, but Mendenhall will also get his share of goal line touches.
 
Childress said:
From the CBS newwire

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/players/playe...hard-mendenhall

RB Rashard Mendenhall was back at full speed Friday after nursing a bad toe. Mendenhall wasn't used in short-yardage or goal-line situations. Further indication that Isaac Redman will be the short-yardage back
Click to expand...
Redman, Dwyer, Justin Vincent and newcomer Dwayne Wright each scored once in the goal-line drill. Redman was stopped once and Dwyer twice. Rashard Mendenhall was not used, although Tomlin maintains his starting halfback remains in the mix for the short-yardage job.

Read more: http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/10221/10787...m#ixzz0wFf0OVKt
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RalphMouth said:
Childress said:
From the CBS newwire

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/players/playe...hard-mendenhall

RB Rashard Mendenhall was back at full speed Friday after nursing a bad toe. Mendenhall wasn't used in short-yardage or goal-line situations. Further indication that Isaac Redman will be the short-yardage back
Click to expand...
Mendy was just moved down my draft board & Matthews and Grant are now ahead of him.
Click to expand...
Where do you rate Greene and Charles with these other RBs?
 
Kenny Powers said:
RalphMouth said:
Childress said:
From the CBS newwire

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/players/playe...hard-mendenhall

RB Rashard Mendenhall was back at full speed Friday after nursing a bad toe. Mendenhall wasn't used in short-yardage or goal-line situations. Further indication that Isaac Redman will be the short-yardage back
Click to expand...
Mendy was just moved down my draft board & Matthews and Grant are now ahead of him.
Click to expand...
Redman might not even make the final roster. Id take that info with a grain of salt.
Click to expand...
The job is not guaranteed but I would be very surprised if Redman does not make the team. The thing I would take with a grain of salt is the comment about Mendenhall not being used in short-yardage or goal-line situations. Mendenhall is being kept out of these drills as a precaution against injury. Also they need to see what they have in Redman, Dwyer, Summers and even Dwayne Wright.

You have to be careful not to jump to conclusions on the regular season based on what is going on in training camp and preseason games.

 
Godsbrother said:
Kenny Powers said:
RalphMouth said:
Childress said:
From the CBS newwire

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/players/playe...hard-mendenhall

RB Rashard Mendenhall was back at full speed Friday after nursing a bad toe. Mendenhall wasn't used in short-yardage or goal-line situations. Further indication that Isaac Redman will be the short-yardage back
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Mendy was just moved down my draft board & Matthews and Grant are now ahead of him.
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Redman might not even make the final roster. Id take that info with a grain of salt.
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The job is not guaranteed but I would be very surprised if Redman does not make the team. The thing I would take with a grain of salt is the comment about Mendenhall not being used in short-yardage or goal-line situations. Mendenhall is being kept out of these drills as a precaution against injury. Also they need to see what they have in Redman, Dwyer, Summers and even Dwayne Wright.
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Agreed, and thats more what I meant by my statement. Redman most likely will make the team, but its not a lock, and it most certainly isnt written in stone he gets even 50% of the GL looks
 
I keep finding myself reigning in my predictions for Mendenhall because his situation this year is just too perfect (ETA: and he has the talent to produce). Conservatively:

300/1,300, 10TD

30/300, 1TD

RB7 - nearly identical to Gore and Turner

 
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