What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

Michael Crabtree, WR, San Francisco 49ers (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Michael Crabtree, WR, San Francisco 49ers

Player Page Link: Michael Crabtree Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or :goodposting: ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
He averaged 57 yards per game last year as a rookie with no practice or game experience. He'll be better this season as a sophomore. This should be the first of many 1000+ yard seasons in his career. I'll say:

85 catches, 1100 yards, 6 receiving TDs

 
last years stats -> prorated to 16 games -> plus 10% improvement -> guessing on TDs cos 3 was too low =

70 catches, 1,000 yards, 5 TDs

 
last years stats -> prorated to 16 games -> plus 10% improvement -> guessing on TDs cos 3 was too low =70 catches, 1,000 yards, 5 TDs
Don't forget that those 3 came in half a season, so you *could* say he would have had 6 and increase to 8 in a full year.
 
After drafting 2 O-line guys in the 1st rd this yr, I anticpate its going to be heatly does of Gore/Dixon/Coffee. I will be surprised if Alex Smith is ever allowed to pass more than 25 times a game this season.

That being said, Crabtree is immensly talented and will be able to achieve good stats even in his limited offense.

70-1075-5

TD total Im keeping low because I bet VD will be option #1B to FranK Grore's #1 A in the redzone.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Alex Smith started 10 games last season, throwing 350 times. That is 35 attempts per game. With the emphasis on running the ball and probably winning a few more games, I would project the 49ers to throw about 30 times per game. Crabtree had about 8 targets per game, and I expect that to stay about the same, even with the reduced attempts. So 8 targets x 16 games= 128 targets. He caught 58% last season and that should improve now that he is more used to Smiths throwing, so let's say 60%. That amounts to about 76 catches. My final proejction:

76 catches, 1100 yards, 9 TDs.

 
65-900-5

Surprised at some projected YPC numbers here. He's not a deep guy and, frankly, his YAC will not come so easy against NFL defenses. A nice player to have on your real and fantasy teams, but not an elite guy. Simply not explosive enough.

 
80/1100/9

Bump due to several factors/assumptions:

1) Alex Smith starts all 16 games, so no Shaun Hill.

2) Crabtree actually has practices and training camp under his belt.

3) Learning curve increase is natural.

4) Ted Ginn as a potential slot WR adds a downfield threat not really present in 2009.

 
It's hard not to like Michael Crabtree. The talented wide receiver impressed in college, came in late for his rookie season and stepped in and made an impact on a team that was not a great passing team.

I do think the 49ers are going to try and pound the ball more this year, hence the draft picks they went with this year but we all know how those kind of plans can go out the window depending how games go on the field.

My gut says he's a good player.

75 receptions, 1025 yards, 6td's

 
I am a huge Crabtree fan. Having only watch limited of his college games due to my being in ACC/SEC territory...

I own him in 2 of my 3 leaues. I plan to get him in my 3rd.

Reasons stated above are valid, but the projections are only listing marginal gains on his numbers... you have to add the talent, opportunity and influence factors for him to truely see his potential.

1) His biggest beef for holding out was his pay / draft slot (#10 vs wanting #7 $$). His contract has escalators that if he hits this year, he get the big $$ bonuses he wants. $ Motivation is a key factor.

2) Ego. How many Diva WR's don't have an ego that hardly fits in a cathedral? He is no different. But his knows where his bread is buttered. He feels he has something to prove. He wants to be better than the rest. His comments last year were directed at proving it. Now is the time.

3) Development is not always in a simple linear curve. He saw solid growth over the last 6 weeks. Imagine that growth with a year of work & development. A 10% improvement is selling him short. He could double his projected values, but realisticly, he should hit 30-40% improvement.

My #'s for M Crabtree:

Targets: 148

Receptions: 97

Yards: 1450

TD's: 8

I am biased. I am also going out on a limb to say he will be Top 3 in 2010.

 
90/1125/8

He should have a mini breakout year this season and next season he will break out into elite territory, he has all the skills, fantastic hands, a "my ball" mentality and this will be his fourth year playing WR. A true star in the making and someone I would build my franchise and fantasy team around.

 
90/1125/8He should have a mini breakout year this season and next season he will break out into elite territory, he has all the skills, fantastic hands, a "my ball" mentality and this will be his fourth year playing WR. A true star in the making and someone I would build my franchise and fantasy team around.
Mini breakout?Only 7 WRs in 2009 had 90 plus receptions. Only 6 WRs in 2008 had 90 plus receptions.I would say 90 receptions constitutes a break out year of the big variety. I do agree though that Crabtree is the real deal and someone to build a franchise around.
 
90/1125/8He should have a mini breakout year this season and next season he will break out into elite territory, he has all the skills, fantastic hands, a "my ball" mentality and this will be his fourth year playing WR. A true star in the making and someone I would build my franchise and fantasy team around.
Mini breakout?Only 7 WRs in 2009 had 90 plus receptions. Only 6 WRs in 2008 had 90 plus receptions.I would say 90 receptions constitutes a break out year of the big variety. I do agree though that Crabtree is the real deal and someone to build a franchise around.
I do think that relative to his potential, that could constitute a mini breakout to some. Many think that once fully developed he'll become like Fitz, a perennial 100-1400-10 type guy. And if that's the case, then I suppose mini breakout is somewhat apt. I myself am not sure he's the type of WR who will consistently average 14 YPR - I think he'll be more in line with last year's 13 YPR, so I think in his prime we can expect 100-1300-10 (we can call him mini-Fitz).
 
My #'s for M Crabtree:Targets: 148Receptions: 97Yards: 1450 TD's: 8I am biased. I am also going out on a limb to say he will be Top 3 in 2010.
I'm high on the kid as well, but he hasn't had a training camp yet and WRs don't reach their full potential off their first camp. He also doesn't have the speed to post elite yardage numbers until he develops a lot more guile. Mostly though, I don't think Alex Smith in a Mike Singletary offense will EVER produce a top 3 WR. If they come clsoe, it will be when Crabtree reaches his peak - which won't be this year. I did really like what I saw, particularly in his late season situation, and fall in with the other cautious optimists, although I don't see high TDs in that offense: 78/1,100/6-7
 
I think that Crabtree is very talented and I also think that he has that top level competitiveness that enables some guys to perform at their best in the toughest of circumstances. These guys work harder than most and stay on top of the heap for a longer time than others.

I am looking for great things from Crabtree as he and San Francisco grow together. I am not that sold on his QB though and Alex Smith does have a few other viable options. Frank Gore is an excellent receiving RB and he had 52 catches on 75 targets in 09. Vernon Davis exploded last year for the 49ers wuth 78 catches on 129 targets. Many have posted that Crabtree came on as the season progressed as the season went on and I agree, yet for the last eight games, Crabtree had 7.8 targets per game and for that same period Josh Morgan had 5.8 per game.

I think that Mchael Crabtree is the best receiving target that the 49ers have and should be used more frequently this year than last, but the amount of the increased involvement may not be to the level expected in the fantasy community. Crabtree has a current ADP of 49 and WR 18. David Dodds has him projected at 22 and Jason Wood even lower at 26. The cost to draft him that early is high and I am think that my lack of confidence in Alex Smith will not allow me to select Crabtree that high. Happy to be a dyansty owner though!

Michael Crabtree 16 gms 130 targets 75 catches 57.7% 945 yds 12.6 ypc and 5 TDs

 
Crabtree will never be a long-term 14-15ypc guy. I'd be floored if he sniffed 1400 yards unless the 9ers somehow jam 120-30+ catches down his throat.

 
The Jacket said:
Crabtree will never be a long-term 14-15ypc guy. I'd be floored if he sniffed 1400 yards unless the 9ers somehow jam 120-30+ catches down his throat.
agree... id trade him for dez and a little something :rolleyes:
 
He averaged 57 yards per game last year as a rookie with no practice or game experience. He'll be better this season as a sophomore. This should be the first of many 1000+ yard seasons in his career. I'll say:85 catches, 1100 yards, 6 receiving TDs
:excited: Although I think he will have a couple more tds. I am targeting Crabtree is all of my leagues, I think he offers tremendous value, and it would not shock me at all to see him have a Calvin Johnson jump in stats in year 2.
 
He averaged 57 yards per game last year as a rookie with no practice or game experience. He'll be better this season as a sophomore. This should be the first of many 1000+ yard seasons in his career. I'll say:85 catches, 1100 yards, 6 receiving TDs
:yes: Although I think he will have a couple more tds. I am targeting Crabtree is all of my leagues, I think he offers tremendous value, and it would not shock me at all to see him have a Calvin Johnson jump in stats in year 2.
I hope so I have hi in 2 dynasties.One went like this last year.1.01 1. Moreno, Knowshon DEN RB ® Fri May 8 9:00:02 a.m. ET 2009 230.70 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List1.02 2. Maclin, Jeremy PHI WR ® (not an Eagles fan)1.03 3. Wells, Chris ARI RB ® Fri May 8 2:50:40 p.m. ET 2009 167.201.04 4. Brown, Donald IND RB ® Fri May 8 2:50:40 p.m. ET 2009 90.14 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List1.05 5. Crabtree, Michael SFO WR ® Fri May 8 3:08:56 p.m. ET 2009 126.50 Crabtree there at #5? Geez.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top