What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Hakeem Nicks, WR, New York Giants (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Hakeem Nicks, WR, New York Giants

Player Page Link: Hakeem Nicks Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or :goodposting: ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
Hakeem Nicks looks like a very dangerous WR. He is great after the cath and reminds me a little bit of Owens in his prime. I am very optimistic about this kid and think he has the skills to not just pay the bills but become one of the NFL's young studs. He has a great situation with a strong armed Eli Manning at QB, and a 100+ reception WR in Steve Smith lining up opposite to take some pressure off as well. Sky's the limit with Nicks, aftr the initial pool of WR1s are off the board, he quickly is at the top of the 2nd pool of guys to me. About WR12-15 or somewhere very close.

70 receptions 1,100 yds, and 8 Tds

This guy has the goods and someone is going to get a very strong WR in the 4th round of most redrafts. I would still want a better WR1 in front of him.

 
Curious to hear if people believe the target balance will shift in favor of Nicks this year.

Last year The Other Steve Smith had 157 to Nicks' 74.

Assuming the split the same number of targets evenly that's 115 each, which puts them in Jennings, DeSean Jackson, and MSW territory in terms of opportunity.

That's good, but not great. Plus, a tough schedule for the Giants this year. So despite the love of the player I'm going to go with a more conservative

65/950/6

 
Cooley said:
Curious to hear if people believe the target balance will shift in favor of Nicks this year.

Last year The Other Steve Smith had 157 to Nicks' 74.

Assuming the split the same number of targets evenly that's 115 each, which puts them in Jennings, DeSean Jackson, and MSW territory in terms of opportunity.

That's good, but not great. Plus, a tough schedule for the Giants this year. So despite the love of the player I'm going to go with a more conservative

65/950/6
Click to expand...
IMO it wont shift in Nicks favor. Steve Smith has his role, possesion WR. THose guys traditional have more targets than the homerun hitter/play maker type.

The NYG have shifted to a passing team and there will be plenty of targets to go around the top3 options in the passing game IMO.

 
Cooley said:
Curious to hear if people believe the target balance will shift in favor of Nicks this year.
Click to expand...
I don't think that Smith will lose very many targets, but rather that Manningham might not get as many, and that the Giants will pass more. They passed quite a bit last year, and I think that with the advent of their new offense they will turn into a team we are used to seeing: Manning, 300+ yards, 2+ TDs....except this time it's in NYC.Nicks and Smith could be a deadly combo for a long time, and this years stats will probably look something along the totals of Chad Johnson and TJ Housh (yeah, back when his name was Johnson) with Palmer at the helm. Exception being, I think Nicks will be much more consistent than the notoriously boom/bust Chad of those days.ETA Prediction: 4.5 catches a game, 75 yards a game, and 10 TDs on the year (72 catches, about 1200 yards, good for just around 16 ypc)
 
Last edited by a moderator:
bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
Cooley said:
Curious to hear if people believe the target balance will shift in favor of Nicks this year.

Last year The Other Steve Smith had 157 to Nicks' 74.

Assuming the split the same number of targets evenly that's 115 each, which puts them in Jennings, DeSean Jackson, and MSW territory in terms of opportunity.

That's good, but not great. Plus, a tough schedule for the Giants this year. So despite the love of the player I'm going to go with a more conservative

65/950/6
Click to expand...
IMO it wont shift in Nicks favor. Steve Smith has his role, possesion WR. THose guys traditional have more targets than the homerun hitter/play maker type.

The NYG have shifted to a passing team and there will be plenty of targets to go around the top3 options in the passing game IMO.
Click to expand...
I don't know if targets will shift from Smith to Nicks, but I do think Nicks commands more targets from Manningham, so I believe his numbers will be better in his first year as a full time starter.
 
Instinctive said:
Cooley said:
Curious to hear if people believe the target balance will shift in favor of Nicks this year.
Click to expand...
I don't think that Smith will lose very many targets, but rather that Manningham might not get as many, and that the Giants will pass more. They passed quite a bit last year, and I think that with the advent of their new offense they will turn into a team we are used to seeing: Manning, 300+ yards, 2+ TDs....except this time it's in NYC.

Nicks and Smith could be a deadly combo for a long time, and this years stats will probably look something along the totals of Chad Johnson and TJ Housh (yeah, back when his name was Johnson) with Palmer at the helm. Exception being, I think Nicks will be much more consistent than the notoriously boom/bust Chad of those days.

ETA Prediction: 4.5 catches a game, 75 yards a game, and 10 TDs on the year (72 catches, about 1200 yards, good for just around 16 ypc)
Click to expand...
Really? I think you are forgetting how good Chad Johnson was. -from 2003-2007 over a 5 year span Chad Johnson averaged an amazing... 92.4 catches per season, 1374 yards per season, and 8.6 td's per year.

Ocho in 8 of his 10 seasons has 1000 yard plus seasons, ( the only misses were his rookie year and the only other 1 in 2008 where he played in 13 games)

People are forgetting how dominant and eliete Ocho was.

 
Big play wide receiver, looks to be the real deal. I do think there's a lot of competition for the ball in NY as Steve Smith and Manningham are both quality wide receivers as well. Eli Manning did pass for over 4,000 yards last year so there should be plenty of balls to go around this year. I'm not as bullish as most but it's hard to deny that this guy has the skills to move forward.

63 receptions for 840 yards, 8 td's

 
Last edited by a moderator:
bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
The NYG have shifted to a passing team and there will be plenty of targets to go around the top3 options in the passing game IMO.
Click to expand...
I'm quoting you sniffer but not calling you out as I've heard this sentiment from a number of people (including Bloom). Are we 100% positive the Giants are a passing team? Or were they a passing team last year due to injuries to Bradshaw and Jacobs? Not that Nicks can't excel on a run-first team but his TD total may stay low if they're scoring on the ground.
 
Iwannabeacowboybaby! said:
Big play wide receiver, looks to be the real deal. I do think there's a lot of competition for the ball in NY as Steve Smith and Manningham are both quality wide receivers as well. Eli Manning did pass for over 4,000 yards last year so there should be plenty of balls to go around this year. I'm not as bullish as most but it's hard to deny that this guy has the skills to move forward.63 receptions for 840 yards, 8 td's
Click to expand...
That's not a very big step forward from 47-790-6, especially when he didn't become a starter until midseason. You're also predicting his YPR to drop by ~3.5. I think his YPR will remain high - somewhere in the 15 to 16 range.I expect: 75-1150-9.
 
Carter_Can_Fly said:
Instinctive said:
Cooley said:
Curious to hear if people believe the target balance will shift in favor of Nicks this year.
Click to expand...
I don't think that Smith will lose very many targets, but rather that Manningham might not get as many, and that the Giants will pass more. They passed quite a bit last year, and I think that with the advent of their new offense they will turn into a team we are used to seeing: Manning, 300+ yards, 2+ TDs....except this time it's in NYC.

Nicks and Smith could be a deadly combo for a long time, and this years stats will probably look something along the totals of Chad Johnson and TJ Housh (yeah, back when his name was Johnson) with Palmer at the helm. Exception being, I think Nicks will be much more consistent than the notoriously boom/bust Chad of those days.

ETA Prediction: 4.5 catches a game, 75 yards a game, and 10 TDs on the year (72 catches, about 1200 yards, good for just around 16 ypc)
Click to expand...
Really? I think you are forgetting how good Chad Johnson was. -from 2003-2007 over a 5 year span Chad Johnson averaged an amazing... 92.4 catches per season, 1374 yards per season, and 8.6 td's per year.

Ocho in 8 of his 10 seasons has 1000 yard plus seasons, ( the only misses were his rookie year and the only other 1 in 2008 where he played in 13 games)

People are forgetting how dominant and eliete Ocho was.
Click to expand...
I didn't think I was forgetting at all...that's exactly the type of player I think Nicks can be. I just prefer that in his 2nd season, I keep any "projections" (which I feel are a near-fruitless exercise anyway) conservative. That offense will be able to put up some poins, and I actuall yreally liek this whole Cincy comparison nwo that I look at it more.Nicks may not be a 90/1300/10 guy, but I could see him being an 80/1200/12 guy, which is just as good.

 
Carter_Can_Fly said:
Multiple Scores said:
55/825/5Eli will hold him back.
Click to expand...
Elaborate on this please...Eli although with some faults had a 62% completion rate with 4021 yards and 27 TD's last year. How will this hold back Nicks who had 790 yards and 6 Td's as a non starting rookie in 14 games?
Click to expand...
Eli had a career year for himself last season, highs in yards and TDS. He is more of a 3300/23 stat line. I think they attempt to getting their run game back on track which would lower Eli from last year, I'm not a fan of Eli's game, to me he is Alex Smith with a ring.
 
Multiple Scores said:
Carter_Can_Fly said:
Multiple Scores said:
55/825/5Eli will hold him back.
Click to expand...
Elaborate on this please...Eli although with some faults had a 62% completion rate with 4021 yards and 27 TD's last year. How will this hold back Nicks who had 790 yards and 6 Td's as a non starting rookie in 14 games?
Click to expand...
Eli had a career year for himself last season, highs in yards and TDS. He is more of a 3300/23 stat line. I think they attempt to getting their run game back on track which would lower Eli from last year, I'm not a fan of Eli's game, to me he is Alex Smith with a ring.
Click to expand...
So then it isn't Eli who you expect to hold Nicks back, but rather, the offensive scheme shifting back to a running focus?
 
Multiple Scores said:
Carter_Can_Fly said:
Multiple Scores said:
55/825/5Eli will hold him back.
Click to expand...
Elaborate on this please...Eli although with some faults had a 62% completion rate with 4021 yards and 27 TD's last year. How will this hold back Nicks who had 790 yards and 6 Td's as a non starting rookie in 14 games?
Click to expand...
Eli had a career year for himself last season, highs in yards and TDS. He is more of a 3300/23 stat line. I think they attempt to getting their run game back on track which would lower Eli from last year, I'm not a fan of Eli's game, to me he is Alex Smith with a ring.
Click to expand...
You mean the same Alex Smith who entering his 5th year in the league has never thrown for more than 18 td's or 2901 yards.Eli Manning has faults but you are failing to acknowledge some of his good points...Eli Manning's averages since he has become the starter 5 years agoYards per season: 3,520TD's per season: 23.8Eli is still only 29 which is far from old in QB's age. In fact he is just entering his peak years. Even if Eli reverts back to his average over the last 5 years in comparison to last year, Nicks still will be a very good fantasy WR.
 
It's a copycat league, and two pass happy teams went to the SB last year, Jacobs was a big dissapointment last season and both he and Bradshaw are injury prone. Giants will be leaning on the passing, because that's where the playmakers of the offense are. I see Manning having a career year, and Nicks benefeting. He will switch roles with Manningham, becoming the 2nd most targeted behind Smith. Im seeing 110 targets.

72 rec, 1209 yards, 9 TDs.

 
Cooley said:
bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
The NYG have shifted to a passing team and there will be plenty of targets to go around the top3 options in the passing game IMO.
Click to expand...
I'm quoting you sniffer but not calling you out as I've heard this sentiment from a number of people (including Bloom). Are we 100% positive the Giants are a passing team? Or were they a passing team last year due to injuries to Bradshaw and Jacobs? Not that Nicks can't excel on a run-first team but his TD total may stay low if they're scoring on the ground.
Click to expand...
I think they pass more because their D is former shell of its self. and their Oline has regressed from a dominating unit as well. The Injuies dont help But I dont think tha Jacobs/Bradshaw are elite level RBs anyway. If you dont have the lead you dont run as much, the NYG wont have the lead as much. Heck they could very well finish 4th in the division.
 
Hakeem Nicks was a late first round pick for the Giants and performed very well in 09. I really think that he is a talented WR and has a great future, but I think that my projection for his performance in 09 will not be met with much approval. I have read in this thread and heard repeated elsewhere that the Giants are now defined as a passing team. I am not convinced of this. I would be interested in New Yorkers commenting on whether the new stadium is wind-proofed as that has been an issue for many home games in the old stadium.

Looking at the passing totals from the past three seasons

07 - 302 completions on 544 attempts 55.5% for 3376 yards 6.2 ypa 23 TDs and 20 ints

08 - 298 completions on 491 attempts 60.7% for 3353 yards 6.8 ypa 23 TDs and 10 ints

09 - 338 completions on 542 attempts 62.4% for 4246 yards 7.8 ypa 28 TDs and 14 ints

Eli Manning has steadily been improving his efficiency moving from 6.2 ypa in 07 to 7.8 last year. Likewise, he has improved from 55.5% completion rate to 62.4% last season. The attempts moved down in 08, but have not increased when comparing the three year period. Both Bradshaw and Jacobs missed a little time last year, but not much more than most team's RBs.

Looking at Nicks, when you generally see a guy touted in his second season, it is either because he was great as a rookie or really came on at the end of hte year. Nicks for the season had 74 targets in 14 games 5.3 per game with 47 catches for 790 yards and 16.8 ypc. He had a really nice average yards per catch and scored 6 TDs, but not that distinguishable from other rookie WRs.

Over the final five games of the year, he averaged 4.6 targets per game and 3 catches for 48.4 yards and 0.4 TDs. He did not stand out more at the end of the season than he did at the first. His current ADP is WR 22 and 59th overall, so it looks to me like he is expected by most to really improve in 2010. I think that the Giants could very well either pass less or pass less efficiently in 2010 when compared to last year and that will not help Nicks to step up as expected. I don't think that he will provide value to where he will be drafted in 2010. He should have a solid season, just not up to many's expectations.

Hakeem Nicks 16 gms 105 targets 63 catches 920 yards 14.6 ypc and 6 TDs

 
rzrback77 said:
Hakeem Nicks was a late first round pick for the Giants and performed very well in 09. I really think that he is a talented WR and has a great future, but I think that my projection for his performance in 09 will not be met with much approval. I have read in this thread and heard repeated elsewhere that the Giants are now defined as a passing team. I am not convinced of this. I would be interested in New Yorkers commenting on whether the new stadium is wind-proofed as that has been an issue for many home games in the old stadium.Looking at the passing totals from the past three seasons07 - 302 completions on 544 attempts 55.5% for 3376 yards 6.2 ypa 23 TDs and 20 ints08 - 298 completions on 491 attempts 60.7% for 3353 yards 6.8 ypa 23 TDs and 10 ints09 - 338 completions on 542 attempts 62.4% for 4246 yards 7.8 ypa 28 TDs and 14 intsEli Manning has steadily been improving his efficiency moving from 6.2 ypa in 07 to 7.8 last year. Likewise, he has improved from 55.5% completion rate to 62.4% last season. The attempts moved down in 08, but have not increased when comparing the three year period. Both Bradshaw and Jacobs missed a little time last year, but not much more than most team's RBs.Looking at Nicks, when you generally see a guy touted in his second season, it is either because he was great as a rookie or really came on at the end of hte year. Nicks for the season had 74 targets in 14 games 5.3 per game with 47 catches for 790 yards and 16.8 ypc. He had a really nice average yards per catch and scored 6 TDs, but not that distinguishable from other rookie WRs.Over the final five games of the year, he averaged 4.6 targets per game and 3 catches for 48.4 yards and 0.4 TDs. He did not stand out more at the end of the season than he did at the first. His current ADP is WR 22 and 59th overall, so it looks to me like he is expected by most to really improve in 2010. I think that the Giants could very well either pass less or pass less efficiently in 2010 when compared to last year and that will not help Nicks to step up as expected. I don't think that he will provide value to where he will be drafted in 2010. He should have a solid season, just not up to many's expectations.Hakeem Nicks 16 gms 105 targets 63 catches 920 yards 14.6 ypc and 6 TDs
Click to expand...
This is very well thought out and great analysis.
 
Eli's throwing for about 4500 yards this year and Nicks will recieve near a third of that. I'm going to say 1300 yds on 80 catches with 11 TDs. Major break out season for this freak-handed WR.

 
LawFitz said:
Eli's throwing for about 4500 yards this year and Nicks will recieve near a third of that. I'm going to say 1300 yds on 80 catches with 11 TDs. Major break out season for this freak-handed WR.
Click to expand...
I hope you are right but I think 11 TD's is way too much. I think the Giants are going to work Ramses Barden into the redzone packages and he may take away a few receiving TD's from both Smith and Nicks
 
Yenrub said:
LawFitz said:
Eli's throwing for about 4500 yards this year and Nicks will recieve near a third of that. I'm going to say 1300 yds on 80 catches with 11 TDs. Major break out season for this freak-handed WR.
Click to expand...
I hope you are right but I think 11 TD's is way too much. I think the Giants are going to work Ramses Barden into the redzone packages and he may take away a few receiving TD's from both Smith and Nicks
Click to expand...
11 TDs is too high, but not because of Barden.
 
Nicks is a guy I am on the fence about. I recently decided that I am not giving Eli enough credit as a fantasy qb and I usually dismiss him but he puts up good numbers. Especially last year, and the person who pointed out that the copycat nfl is leaning towards passing is dead on. Witht that said, I think nicks is a potential stud. I read he didnt start till the 2nd half of the season, is this accurate? Also, will he be the starter on opening day?

 
No doubt he'll be starting opening day. As for numbers, I see 75/1100/10, assuming the toe is toe-tally fine (like that one?). The 16.8 ypc while hurt last year certainly bodes well for the future.

 
We always analyse the stats, schedules, depth charts - everything but the kitchen sink it seems at times.

To me, Hakeem Nicks simply passes the 'eye test'.

If he stays injury-free over his career, he really could go down as one of the better players of his era.

This year I see him with 68/1278/8, but wouldn't be the slightest bit surprised if he blew those numbers out of the water.

 
chook said:
We always analyse the stats, schedules, depth charts - everything but the kitchen sink it seems at times.To me, Hakeem Nicks simply passes the 'eye test'. If he stays injury-free over his career, he really could go down as one of the better players of his era.This year I see him with 68/1278/8, but wouldn't be the slightest bit surprised if he blew those numbers out of the water.
Click to expand...
18.8 per catch is pretty good. What would you consider "blowing those numbers out of the water?"
 
Montana16 said:
Nicks is a guy I am on the fence about. I recently decided that I am not giving Eli enough credit as a fantasy qb and I usually dismiss him but he puts up good numbers. Especially last year, and the person who pointed out that the copycat nfl is leaning towards passing is dead on. Witht that said, I think nicks is a potential stud. I read he didnt start till the 2nd half of the season, is this accurate? Also, will he be the starter on opening day?
Click to expand...
Yeah, he was eased into the lineup early in the season.According to Pro Football Focus -- http://profootballfocus.com/by_position.ph...&numgames=1 -- Nicks was one of the most efficient WRs last year. Each team runs about 1,000 plays in a season, so I looked to see which WRs last year average the most yards per 1,000 plays, minimum 500 receiving yards:

Code: 
#	 Snaps  Yds	Yd/1000P  Team	Name  1	 719	1348	1,875	NE	  Wes Welker2	 728	1320	1,813	DAL	 Miles Austin3	1025	1569	1,531	HST	 Andre Johnson4	 520	 790	1,519	MIN	 Percy Harvin5	 772	1168	1,513	PHI	 DeSean Jackson6	 528	 790	1,496	NYG	 Hakeem Nicks7	 950	1322	1,392	MIN	 Sidney Rice8	 571	 776	1,359	SD	  Malcolm Floyd9	 936	1264	1,350	IND	 Reggie Wayne10	908	1220	1,344	NYG	 Steve Smith11	877	1167	1,331	SD	  Vincent Jackson12	782	1029	1,316	ARZ	 Anquan Boldin13	581	 760	1,308	MIA	 Davone Bess14	857	1113	1,299	GB	  Greg Jennings15	864	1120	1,296	DEN	 Brandon Marshall16	983	1264	1,286	NE	  Randy Moss17	850	1074	1,264	NO	  Marques Colston18	937	1167	1,245	PIT	 Hines Ward19	407	 506	1,243	MIA	 Brian Hartline20	501	 608	1,214	KC	  Chris Chambers21	680	 825	1,213	NYG	 Mario Manningham22	628	 757	1,205	CHI	 Devin Hester23   1040	1248	1,200	PIT	 Santonio Holmes24	891	1061	1,191	GB	  Donald Driver25	638	 756	1,185	PIT	 Mike Wallace
Smith and Harvin were both extremely productive rookies by any per-play standard.
 
rzrback77 said:
Hakeem Nicks was a late first round pick for the Giants and performed very well in 09. I really think that he is a talented WR and has a great future, but I think that my projection for his performance in 09 will not be met with much approval. I have read in this thread and heard repeated elsewhere that the Giants are now defined as a passing team. I am not convinced of this. I would be interested in New Yorkers commenting on whether the new stadium is wind-proofed as that has been an issue for many home games in the old stadium.

Eli Manning has steadily been improving his efficiency moving from 6.2 ypa in 07 to 7.8 last year. Likewise, he has improved from 55.5% completion rate to 62.4% last season. The attempts moved down in 08, but have not increased when comparing the three year period. Both Bradshaw and Jacobs missed a little time last year, but not much more than most team's RBs.

Looking at Nicks, when you generally see a guy touted in his second season, it is either because he was great as a rookie or really came on at the end of hte year. Nicks for the season had 74 targets in 14 games 5.3 per game with 47 catches for 790 yards and 16.8 ypc. He had a really nice average yards per catch and scored 6 TDs, but not that distinguishable from other rookie WRs.

Over the final five games of the year, he averaged 4.6 targets per game and 3 catches for 48.4 yards and 0.4 TDs. He did not stand out more at the end of the season than he did at the first. His current ADP is WR 22 and 59th overall, so it looks to me like he is expected by most to really improve in 2010. I think that the Giants could very well either pass less or pass less efficiently in 2010 when compared to last year and that will not help Nicks to step up as expected. I don't think that he will provide value to where he will be drafted in 2010. He should have a solid season, just not up to many's expectations.

Hakeem Nicks 16 gms 105 targets 63 catches 920 yards 14.6 ypc and 6 TDs
Click to expand...
Bold points are the key IMO. I always have a few guys in mind when drafting to trade during the middle of the year to make a run at the playoffs. If I get a couple of late WRs to out produce their ADP, i think I will get much better value for Nicks mid season then where I draft him.
 
Montana16 said:
Nicks is a guy I am on the fence about. I recently decided that I am not giving Eli enough credit as a fantasy qb and I usually dismiss him but he puts up good numbers. Especially last year, and the person who pointed out that the copycat nfl is leaning towards passing is dead on. Witht that said, I think nicks is a potential stud. I read he didnt start till the 2nd half of the season, is this accurate? Also, will he be the starter on opening day?
Click to expand...
yes and yes. I turned down Colston for him in a Dynasty league. Ever since he played at NC I have had him pegged a stud in the NFL. He won't reach top five this year but I could see him creep into the top ten with a shot at top-five in year 3.
 
sholditch said:
Montana16 said:
Nicks is a guy I am on the fence about. I recently decided that I am not giving Eli enough credit as a fantasy qb and I usually dismiss him but he puts up good numbers. Especially last year, and the person who pointed out that the copycat nfl is leaning towards passing is dead on. Witht that said, I think nicks is a potential stud. I read he didnt start till the 2nd half of the season, is this accurate? Also, will he be the starter on opening day?
Click to expand...
yes and yes. I turned down Colston for him in a Dynasty league. Ever since he played at NC I have had him pegged a stud in the NFL. He won't reach top five this year but I could see him creep into the top ten with a shot at top-five in year 3.
Click to expand...
Also passed on Colston for him, actually, Colston and a 3rd.
 
JPeso said:
sholditch said:
Montana16 said:
Nicks is a guy I am on the fence about. I recently decided that I am not giving Eli enough credit as a fantasy qb and I usually dismiss him but he puts up good numbers. Especially last year, and the person who pointed out that the copycat nfl is leaning towards passing is dead on. Witht that said, I think nicks is a potential stud. I read he didnt start till the 2nd half of the season, is this accurate? Also, will he be the starter on opening day?
Click to expand...
yes and yes. I turned down Colston for him in a Dynasty league. Ever since he played at NC I have had him pegged a stud in the NFL. He won't reach top five this year but I could see him creep into the top ten with a shot at top-five in year 3.
Click to expand...
Also passed on Colston for him, actually, Colston and a 3rd.
Click to expand...
:unsure:
 
Grahamburn said:
chook said:
We always analyse the stats, schedules, depth charts - everything but the kitchen sink it seems at times.To me, Hakeem Nicks simply passes the 'eye test'. If he stays injury-free over his career, he really could go down as one of the better players of his era.This year I see him with 68/1278/8, but wouldn't be the slightest bit surprised if he blew those numbers out of the water.
Click to expand...
18.8 per catch is pretty good. What would you consider "blowing those numbers out of the water?"
Click to expand...
11-14 TD's.
 
rzrback77 said:
Hakeem Nicks was a late first round pick for the Giants and performed very well in 09. I really think that he is a talented WR and has a great future, but I think that my projection for his performance in 09 will not be met with much approval. I have read in this thread and heard repeated elsewhere that the Giants are now defined as a passing team. I am not convinced of this. I would be interested in New Yorkers commenting on whether the new stadium is wind-proofed as that has been an issue for many home games in the old stadium.Looking at the passing totals from the past three seasons07 - 302 completions on 544 attempts 55.5% for 3376 yards 6.2 ypa 23 TDs and 20 ints08 - 298 completions on 491 attempts 60.7% for 3353 yards 6.8 ypa 23 TDs and 10 ints09 - 338 completions on 542 attempts 62.4% for 4246 yards 7.8 ypa 28 TDs and 14 intsEli Manning has steadily been improving his efficiency moving from 6.2 ypa in 07 to 7.8 last year. Likewise, he has improved from 55.5% completion rate to 62.4% last season. The attempts moved down in 08, but have not increased when comparing the three year period. Both Bradshaw and Jacobs missed a little time last year, but not much more than most team's RBs.Looking at Nicks, when you generally see a guy touted in his second season, it is either because he was great as a rookie or really came on at the end of hte year. Nicks for the season had 74 targets in 14 games 5.3 per game with 47 catches for 790 yards and 16.8 ypc. He had a really nice average yards per catch and scored 6 TDs, but not that distinguishable from other rookie WRs.Over the final five games of the year, he averaged 4.6 targets per game and 3 catches for 48.4 yards and 0.4 TDs. He did not stand out more at the end of the season than he did at the first. His current ADP is WR 22 and 59th overall, so it looks to me like he is expected by most to really improve in 2010. I think that the Giants could very well either pass less or pass less efficiently in 2010 when compared to last year and that will not help Nicks to step up as expected. I don't think that he will provide value to where he will be drafted in 2010. He should have a solid season, just not up to many's expectations.Hakeem Nicks 16 gms 105 targets 63 catches 920 yards 14.6 ypc and 6 TDs
Click to expand...
Nicks was very "distinguishable from other rookie WRs" when you roll the tape. Few rookie WRs come in with his attack mentality in their routes, ball skills, and run after catch instincts, not to mention while playing with a broken toe and missing part of the early season with an injury. I also think that an exceptional YPC and TD% on limited targets and opportunity, (and once again, playing at less than 100%) is also very "distinguishable from other rookie WRs"I don't find the "final five games" analysis to be compelling because that includes two total blowouts at the end of the season, which were Nicks least production games of the five.The conclusion that the Giants may pass less or pass less efficiently is given without any supporting premises - why should we think that the passing game will take a step back this year? Smith, Manningham, Nicks, and most importantly Eli Manning are all on the upslope of their careers. Even if the Giants return to their 2008 run/pass split, that's only three less pass attempts a game, not enough of a drop to be a compelling reason to dampen expectations for Nicks (or Steve Smith or Eli Manning for that matter).
 
Sigmund Bloom said:
rzrback77 said:
Hakeem Nicks was a late first round pick for the Giants and performed very well in 09. I really think that he is a talented WR and has a great future, but I think that my projection for his performance in 09 will not be met with much approval. I have read in this thread and heard repeated elsewhere that the Giants are now defined as a passing team. I am not convinced of this. I would be interested in New Yorkers commenting on whether the new stadium is wind-proofed as that has been an issue for many home games in the old stadium.Looking at the passing totals from the past three seasons07 - 302 completions on 544 attempts 55.5% for 3376 yards 6.2 ypa 23 TDs and 20 ints08 - 298 completions on 491 attempts 60.7% for 3353 yards 6.8 ypa 23 TDs and 10 ints09 - 338 completions on 542 attempts 62.4% for 4246 yards 7.8 ypa 28 TDs and 14 intsEli Manning has steadily been improving his efficiency moving from 6.2 ypa in 07 to 7.8 last year. Likewise, he has improved from 55.5% completion rate to 62.4% last season. The attempts moved down in 08, but have not increased when comparing the three year period. Both Bradshaw and Jacobs missed a little time last year, but not much more than most team's RBs.Looking at Nicks, when you generally see a guy touted in his second season, it is either because he was great as a rookie or really came on at the end of hte year. Nicks for the season had 74 targets in 14 games 5.3 per game with 47 catches for 790 yards and 16.8 ypc. He had a really nice average yards per catch and scored 6 TDs, but not that distinguishable from other rookie WRs.Over the final five games of the year, he averaged 4.6 targets per game and 3 catches for 48.4 yards and 0.4 TDs. He did not stand out more at the end of the season than he did at the first. His current ADP is WR 22 and 59th overall, so it looks to me like he is expected by most to really improve in 2010. I think that the Giants could very well either pass less or pass less efficiently in 2010 when compared to last year and that will not help Nicks to step up as expected. I don't think that he will provide value to where he will be drafted in 2010. He should have a solid season, just not up to many's expectations.Hakeem Nicks 16 gms 105 targets 63 catches 920 yards 14.6 ypc and 6 TDs
Click to expand...
Nicks was very "distinguishable from other rookie WRs" when you roll the tape. Few rookie WRs come in with his attack mentality in their routes, ball skills, and run after catch instincts, not to mention while playing with a broken toe and missing part of the early season with an injury. I also think that an exceptional YPC and TD% on limited targets and opportunity, (and once again, playing at less than 100%) is also very "distinguishable from other rookie WRs"I don't find the "final five games" analysis to be compelling because that includes two total blowouts at the end of the season, which were Nicks least production games of the five.The conclusion that the Giants may pass less or pass less efficiently is given without any supporting premises - why should we think that the passing game will take a step back this year? Smith, Manningham, Nicks, and most importantly Eli Manning are all on the upslope of their careers. Even if the Giants return to their 2008 run/pass split, that's only three less pass attempts a game, not enough of a drop to be a compelling reason to dampen expectations for Nicks (or Steve Smith or Eli Manning for that matter).
Click to expand...
:shrug: ;) Yet another reason to listen to The Audible, in depth analysis :thumbup: :thumbup:
 
Sigmund, you are a big reason as to why I refused that trade offer. As for the Audible, honestly as good as Mike and Mike. You and Cec are some of the best in the biz.

 
Sigmund Bloom said:
rzrback77 said:
Hakeem Nicks was a late first round pick for the Giants and performed very well in 09. I really think that he is a talented WR and has a great future, but I think that my projection for his performance in 09 will not be met with much approval. I have read in this thread and heard repeated elsewhere that the Giants are now defined as a passing team. I am not convinced of this. I would be interested in New Yorkers commenting on whether the new stadium is wind-proofed as that has been an issue for many home games in the old stadium.

Looking at the passing totals from the past three seasons

07 - 302 completions on 544 attempts 55.5% for 3376 yards 6.2 ypa 23 TDs and 20 ints

08 - 298 completions on 491 attempts 60.7% for 3353 yards 6.8 ypa 23 TDs and 10 ints

09 - 338 completions on 542 attempts 62.4% for 4246 yards 7.8 ypa 28 TDs and 14 ints

Eli Manning has steadily been improving his efficiency moving from 6.2 ypa in 07 to 7.8 last year. Likewise, he has improved from 55.5% completion rate to 62.4% last season. The attempts moved down in 08, but have not increased when comparing the three year period. Both Bradshaw and Jacobs missed a little time last year, but not much more than most team's RBs.

Looking at Nicks, when you generally see a guy touted in his second season, it is either because he was great as a rookie or really came on at the end of hte year. Nicks for the season had 74 targets in 14 games 5.3 per game with 47 catches for 790 yards and 16.8 ypc. He had a really nice average yards per catch and scored 6 TDs, but not that distinguishable from other rookie WRs.

Over the final five games of the year, he averaged 4.6 targets per game and 3 catches for 48.4 yards and 0.4 TDs. He did not stand out more at the end of the season than he did at the first. His current ADP is WR 22 and 59th overall, so it looks to me like he is expected by most to really improve in 2010. I think that the Giants could very well either pass less or pass less efficiently in 2010 when compared to last year and that will not help Nicks to step up as expected. I don't think that he will provide value to where he will be drafted in 2010. He should have a solid season, just not up to many's expectations.

Hakeem Nicks 16 gms 105 targets 63 catches 920 yards 14.6 ypc and 6 TDs
Click to expand...
Nicks was very "distinguishable from other rookie WRs" when you roll the tape. Few rookie WRs come in with his attack mentality in their routes, ball skills, and run after catch instincts, not to mention while playing with a broken toe and missing part of the early season with an injury. I also think that an exceptional YPC and TD% on limited targets and opportunity, (and once again, playing at less than 100%) is also very "distinguishable from other rookie WRs"I don't find the "final five games" analysis to be compelling because that includes two total blowouts at the end of the season, which were Nicks least production games of the five.

The conclusion that the Giants may pass less or pass less efficiently is given without any supporting premises - why should we think that the passing game will take a step back this year? Smith, Manningham, Nicks, and most importantly Eli Manning are all on the upslope of their careers. Even if the Giants return to their 2008 run/pass split, that's only three less pass attempts a game, not enough of a drop to be a compelling reason to dampen expectations for Nicks (or Steve Smith or Eli Manning for that matter).
Click to expand...
A drop of 51 attempts for the season @ 7.8 ypa is a almost a 10% reduction in attempts and 398 yards for the season, almost a game and a half in production. I am not sure if that number should be trivialized.Even if Manning's TD total does not drop as a reflection of the 10% reduction in attempts that would reduce his ppg total (in my scoring system) from 20.32 ppg to 17.98 to place him in 17th place, just fractions of a point above David Garrard.

 
Anybody have a problem with the current ADPs of Hicks (14) and Smith (17)? Two top 20 WRs from the Giants? I know they passed a lot last year, but with an improved defense their offense should be more balanced, no?

 
rascal said:
Anybody have a problem with the current ADPs of Hicks (14) and Smith (17)? Two top 20 WRs from the Giants? I know they passed a lot last year, but with an improved defense their offense should be more balanced, no?
Click to expand...
Hicks? Really?
 
Looking through the numbers, as well as the eye test, I think this guy will be golden. Smith will take targets away, but I can see smith *rolling* with what he does get.

 
I dont deny that Nicks has the potential to produce at a very high level.

but my thought is that he will need 1 more year to do it.

I figure he will get somewhere around 950 total yards +/- 100 yards and that is what you should draft him for.

so Low end 850 yards.... High end of about 1050 yards. this would make him a solid #3 WR or a low end #2 WR and thats what you should draft him for.

If he ends up with 1200 + yards he would be a top 8 WR and I'd be very pleased, but to draft him for that many yards would be exposing your team to a fair bit of risk.

I dont deny it can happen, but I wouldnt bet on it.

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Ministry of Pain
Atlanta Falcons Offense '24- WR/RB/TE/QB and the OL
Replies
3
Views
180
zamboni
zamboni
greenmountaingoat
Ainias Smith-WR- Draft eligible Texas A&M
Replies
9
Views
310
Drunken Cowboy
D
JohnnyU
College RB Quinshon Judkins, Ohio St.
Replies
22
Views
877
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Wigglytuff's Gruff

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 2 (members: 0, guests: 2)
Top