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John Carlson, TE, Seattle Seahawks (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: John Carlson, TE, Seattle Seahawks

Player Page Link: John Carlson Player Page

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[*]Consensus Member Projections

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Seattle is an interesting team to forecast with their all new coaching regime. They have also added quite a few new players to their offense including QB Charlie Whitehurst, RBs Lendale White and Leon Washington, and WR Golden Tate. Their passing offense has really under-performed for two consecutive years.

07 - 375 comp 600 attempts 62.5% 4215 yards 7.0 ypa 30 TDs 14 ints

08 - 262 comp 474 attempts 55.3% 2831 yards 6.0 ypa 18 TDs 15 ints

09 - 371 comp 608 attempts 61.0% 3729 yards 6.1 ypa 20 TDs 19 ints

The statistics do not look so bad (other than the 6.1 ypa) for last year, but the overall results seemed to be worse than the numbers. John Carlson was a second round pick in 08 and enters his third season with two very consistent years to his credit. His two seasons featured 80 and 83 targets, 55 and 51 receptions, 627 and 574 yards, and 5 and 7 TDs. Finally, in FBG scoring he ranked 7th as a rookie and then 11th in 09. His targets tailed off last year, but he scored TDs in each of the last four games.

I think that he has grown to be a reliable option and particularly in the red zone where he had 13 targets, nine catches and 4 TDs in 09. He seems to be a guy that can be drafted later, current ADP of TE 16 and 153 overall that if the Seahawks offense improves under the new coaching staff could be situated for a real increase in productivity.

John Carlson 16 gms 90 targets 60 catches 66.7% 690 yards 11.5 ypc and 8 TDs

 
I think he'll get more targets than last year as well, he should be a bigger part of that offense.

67 rec, 715 yards, 7 TDs.

 
I think he'll get more targets than last year as well, he should be a bigger part of that offense.67 rec, 715 yards, 7 TDs.
I think those are pretty reasonable numbers.Don't forget that Carlson was asked to block a lot last year due to the offensive line problems. If the OL improves, that should enable him to go out more as a receiver. The drawbacks for his numbers are (1) how many targets he'll get with Housh, Tate and even Branch in there; and (2) he probably needs to improve his blocking (per Mora's comments last year) - otherwise that could cost him some snaps.
 
I think he'll get more targets than last year as well, he should be a bigger part of that offense.67 rec, 715 yards, 7 TDs.
I think those are pretty reasonable numbers.Don't forget that Carlson was asked to block a lot last year due to the offensive line problems. If the OL improves, that should enable him to go out more as a receiver. The drawbacks for his numbers are (1) how many targets he'll get with Housh, Tate and even Branch in there; and (2) he probably needs to improve his blocking (per Mora's comments last year) - otherwise that could cost him some snaps.
I don't think Housh/Tate/Branch or the Williams guys are huge threats -- this is one of the poorer WR corps IMO and Carlson stands out as one of the better targets. Provided he isn't used to block as much I think he's going to be very productive.
 
I remember thinking last year the addition of Housh would hurt Carlson because TJ runs "TE-style" routes.... and by that I mean he's not a vertical threat, so he clogs the same area of the field that the TE operates. I don't know if that's really true, but it seemed logical at the time, and turns out it was correct. He didn't really fall off a cliff but did regress. (I should clarify: his receptions and yardage decreased. We all know TDs can be fluky).

The problem this year is that they've added Golden Tate, yet another WR who should occupy the same area of the field as Housh and Carlson. If all three options are running 10-12 yard routes, it should be easy for the defense to crowd that area. That said, there is reason to believe Carlson's regression last year was due to being asked to stay in as a blocker more. But have the Seahawks done much to solidify the OLine? I don't really know, so if any homers have insight that would be relevant to this projections.

In short, I think Carlson should move back to his 2008 numbers. The interesting thing is that his 2008 would have only been about TE16/17 last year.

I don't usually draft a TE2 in redraft, so I probably won't have Carlson on my roster, because I wouldn't want to rely on him as a starter. But if you do take a TE2, he's probably one of the best, and a decent match-up/bye-week player.

55/650/6

 
I think he'll get more targets than last year as well, he should be a bigger part of that offense.

67 rec, 715 yards, 7 TDs.
I think those are pretty reasonable numbers.Don't forget that Carlson was asked to block a lot last year due to the offensive line problems. If the OL improves, that should enable him to go out more as a receiver.

The drawbacks for his numbers are (1) how many targets he'll get with Housh, Tate and even Branch in there; and (2) he probably needs to improve his blocking (per Mora's comments last year) - otherwise that could cost him some snaps.
I don't think Housh/Tate/Branch or the Williams guys are huge threats -- this is one of the poorer WR corps IMO and Carlson stands out as one of the better targets. Provided he isn't used to block as much I think he's going to be very productive.
Seattle signed Chris Baker to play the role of blocking TE, look for Carlson to get snaps in the slot as well as inline and be a major component of the offense. Housh and Branch both had recent surgeries, Housh has been declining for 3 years at least and Branch is constantly injured. Wouldn't be surprised at all to see Carlson lead the team in targets and TD's. Also wouldn't be surprised to see a starting receiving corp of Tate, Butler and Carlson by midseason.100 targets, 71 receptions, 884 yards, 8 TDs

Don't know if I missed an intro section so I'll just throw in great forum, some serious football knowledge flying around here.

 
I have Carlson as my back-up TE (Celek is my #1 guy) and I just read this on Rotoworld:

Danny O'Neil of the Seattle Times believes it's "now OK to become officially concerned" that John Carlson won't be a big part of the Seahawks' passing game this season.Matt Hasselbeck was convinced that Carlson's role would grow during OTA season, but the talented tight end has been all too quiet in exhibition action. Carlson has just two catches for 12 yards through three games. O'Neil is also at Seahawks practice every day, so his insight is worthwhile. Carlson is a much better TE2 insurance pick than a reliable fantasy starter.Source: Seattle Times
Anyone know how Pete Carroll has used TE's in the past? :confused:
 
I have Carlson as my back-up TE (Celek is my #1 guy) and I just read this on Rotoworld:

Danny O'Neil of the Seattle Times believes it's "now OK to become officially concerned" that John Carlson won't be a big part of the Seahawks' passing game this season.Matt Hasselbeck was convinced that Carlson's role would grow during OTA season, but the talented tight end has been all too quiet in exhibition action. Carlson has just two catches for 12 yards through three games. O'Neil is also at Seahawks practice every day, so his insight is worthwhile. Carlson is a much better TE2 insurance pick than a reliable fantasy starter.Source: Seattle Times
Anyone know how Pete Carroll has used TE's in the past? :confused:
Not sure about Pete but Hasselback definitely like the dude. I really doubt his catches go down from previous years (50s) as there isn't a ton of other options.
 
I think the Okung injury hurts him early in the season since he may have to block more instead of go out in routes. He got stuck doing that quite a bit last year. I thought they were using him more in the slot during camp so all indications were he was going to be used more in the passing game this season. I guess it's just a matter of how much you think the preseason games equate with what will happen once the real games start. I got him as a TE2 and am willing to be patient with him early on given Okung's injury. If he doesnt do much after Okung returns then it's probably time to cut bait and find another TE.

 

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