Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons (1 Viewer)

2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons

Player Page Link: Matt Ryan Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

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While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

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Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

Matt Ryan definitely slipped some in his second season. Even though he played 14 games in 09, compared to all 16 in his rookie season, he threw 17 more passes. That is over five additional passes in his second season. However, the Falcons did lose Michael Turner to injury for several games and that likely played a bigger role in the additional passing. Ryan definitely has two stud receivers in Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez, although Gonzo is 34 going into his 14th season, well past the time most TEs begin to slow down their productivity.

Their NFC South division seems to have defenses that are less than stellar stopping the run, so if they can get leads, it could lead to situations where they need to run the clock by running the ball. Overall, I see the Falcons as preferring to run the ball, especially as long as Turner is available. In 07 their RBs ran for only 1429 yards (pre-Turner). In 08, that number jumped to 2266 yards and last year dropped back down to 1761, but with Turner missing 5 games and only having one carry in week 15.

Matt Ryan has a current ADP of QB 9 and 72 overall and is sandwiched between Eli Manning and Joe Flacco, both of whom I prefer in 2010.

Matt Ryan 16 gms 270 completions in 460 attempts 58.7% 3128 yards 6.8 ypa 21 TDs 13 ints 40 rushes 80 yards 2.0 ypc and 1 TD

I've purposely waited to provide my opinion on Matt Ryan because as a Falcons fan, he is the most important player as it relates to my emotional hopes for a great football season. So I can accept that I might be perceived as being a bit hyperbolic when forecasting Ryan and the Falcons chances in 2010.

That said, the parallel I keep on drawing in my mind as it relates to Matt Ryan in terms of career arc is Phillip Rivers. While Rivers sat for two seasons behind Drew Brees (as opposed to Ryan who started from Game 1), when you look at their first two seasons (and even earlier than that) as starters side by side, you see some interesting similarities.

** In both first seasons, Ryan and Rivers displayed abilities to be efficient in the passing game. Rivers first year YPA was 7.4. Ryan's was 7.9.

** In each of their second seasons, their YPA dropped. Rivers to 6.9, Ryan more dramatically to 6.5.

** Both have been considered 'cerebral' QB's. Neither is considered to have the types of overwhelming physical tools that players like Matt Stafford & JaMarcus Russell had coming out of school. They were selected high more on the combination of their physical and instinctual gifts/talents for the position.

** Both players Completion % after their first two seasons as starters hovered around 60% (Rivers 61.1%; Ryan 59.7%).

** Their teams performance from Year 1 to Year 2 declined. Their Year 1 performance was considered a revelation (both individually and as a team)...but their Year 2 performances (both individually and as a team) were considered step backs.

Now these admittedly are loose correlations. What I can tell you about Ryan from watching him in 2009 versus 2008 is as follows:

- I thought he struggled more with decision making and 'pulling the trigger' on plays that took longer to develop versus his rookie year where it seemed like he was more decisive and confident. This is born out in the stats as well. On pass thrown more than 20 yards here is Ryan's 2009 vs. 2008 comparison.

2008: 21/55/618/5/2

2009: 9/35/297/3/5

- Ryan was still very sharp in the short passing game.

- While this may not solely relate to Ryan, I felt the Falcons use of Gonzalez was a bit too conservative. In 2008, the Chiefs were able to provide Gonzo 11 receptions of 20+ yards with the likes of Tyler Thigpen and Brodie Croyle getting him the ball. In 2009, the Falcons were only able to provide Gonzo 3 of these. So either this is a sign of decline for Gonzo...or Mike Mularkey has to find more ways to get him downfield.

- Last year during training camp, Ryan's mantra seemed to be focused on generating first downs. I think that mindset wound up manifesting itself in a more measured approach on his part - more of a take what the defense gives him 10 yards at a time mentality. It showed in his YPA. Hindsight being 20/20, you might have been able to take something from that comment. Pay attention to the types of things Ryan is saying this training camp. He might provide you some decent info. Right now, the scuttlebutt is alot more no huddle attack.

At the end of the day, Ryan is being overlooked a bit this year because of his subpar sophomore season. My intuition tells me that he'll bounce back because he approaches his craft in the right way and that he'll work to correct flaws that developed in his game. I think the Falcons would like to get back to a more efficient passing attack this year. Their 570 attempts were out of character for a team that likes to run the ball as their bread and butter. While some of this can be attributed to Michael Turner essentially missing the second half of the season, the Falcons simply threw the ball perhaps more (31.3% than in 2008) than they should have last year. Against a schedule that offers quite a few question marks at QB, the Falcons may not feel pressured to put the ball in the air as much in 2010.

Prediction: 315 Completions, 503 Attempts, 3752 Passing Yards, 26 TD's 15 INT's; 32 Rushes, 54 Rushing Yards 1 TD.

Matt Ryan didn't take the step forward that so many thought would happen in the 09 season. He had a big back in Michael Turner, he had a stud wide receiver in Tony Gonzalez as well as a very good wide receiver in Roddy White. Now, they weren't all together for 16 games but that group never really got it going together. When you look at players like a Michael Turner, White, Gonzalez and even Ryan to some degree, these are guys being drafted pretty high in their positions and they really didn't get it done.

I don't believe they're going to get it done this year, at least not in the passing game. I think we're going to see a lot of average fantasy numbers in the passing game out of Atlanta this season. I see a team that plays pretty good defense, has an easier schedule and ultimately Matt Ryan will frustrate fantasy owners with mediocre numbers.

3400 yards passing, 20 td's and 15 int's

Am I the only one that didn't think he was a disappointment last year? I think a lot of people are down on him in the fantasy circle because they got overwhelmed by the unfair expectations fantasy guys had for him. I think this year he will be undervalued due to sour memories. He's an ideal guy to pick up in a QB commitee.

3550 23 12. 1 Rushing TD.

Ryan was interesting last season in that he put up worse numbers as an NFL quarterback but better numbers as a fantasy quarterback. Those two things usually go together when the QB is throwing more frequently, and that's exactly what happened last year.

Excluding the Tampa Bay game, where he threw only 3 passes before missing the rest of that game and the next week's game with a toe injury, Ryan averaged 34.5 attempts per game in 13 games. He averaged 27.1 att/g as a rookie, so even though his Y/A dropped from 7.9 to 6.5, he actually threw for more yards per game (223 vs. 215) in his second season. He also saw his TD and INT rates jump up, not so great for real QBs but always a good trade-off in fantasy circles.

Team ROFLCOPTERS said:

Am I the only one that didn't think he was a disappointment last year? I think a lot of people are down on him in the fantasy circle because they got overwhelmed by the unfair expectations fantasy guys had for him. I think this year he will be undervalued due to sour memories. He's an ideal guy to pick up in a QB commitee. 3550 23 12. 1 Rushing TD.

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Don't think he disappointed at all with his injuries and injuries around hi. He was given unreasonable expectations in year 2. Wish they upgraded wr2 this offseason but I think he'll finish somewhere in qb10-15 this year. Rivers is a good comp as indicated above. 3500 24 td 15 intStill see him as a high upside guy down the road, much in the same way I did Rivers when he was to be relied upon more when eventually declined

Seriously thinking about Ryan as my #1. Wanted to see more opinions.

He's my #2 behind Eli Manning. I got him in a trade hoping he could be my future #1. Unfortunately I haven't read or heard anything promising about him other than improving a little from last year but not being any better than his rookie season. I'm not sure why people are claiming this.

Is it just because they are a run first team? Does Ryan even have the skills to handle an offense featuring a heavy passing attack? Does he have those skills but they just aren't developed yet? I don't know. I have no information for you other than my hope he can become that.

He's my #1, I backed him up with Stafford. When I picked Ryan, the other QBs in his tier still on the board were Culter and Kolb. I'm down on both of them.

Culter, I don't like him in Martz system, his int's should go up a bunch and I'm not sure he'll stay healthy with all the hits QBs in Martz's system take.

Kolb, I think he's the next Matt Cassell.

netnalp said:

He's my #1, I backed him up with Stafford. When I picked Ryan, the other QBs in his tier still on the board were Culter and Kolb.

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I did this same exact thing but Ryan was actually the very last QB in his tier when I drafted him. I followed up that pick with Stafford (who was the 1st player in his tier to go) with my very next pick, I was at the 2 slot and took them at the 10/11 turn. I love Ryan this year and think he had a minor sophomore slump. He has a top tier WR in White, a top tier TE in Gonzo and a top tier running game to take pressure off. I love drafting dome QBs and I love how competitive the NFC South appears to be.

I took Ryan in the 7th round of a 12 teamer. I like him but I find he locks onto Roddy a bit too much. I feel if he spread the ball around more that his numbers would improve. Not a knock on Roddy by any stretch but I think he has tunnel vision at times and the offense may suffer some because of it.

This should improve with experience though.

Futz said:

I took Ryan in the 7th round of a 12 teamer. I like him but I find he locks onto Roddy a bit too much. I feel if he spread the ball around more that his numbers would improve. Not a knock on Roddy by any stretch but I think he has tunnel vision at times and the offense may suffer some because of it.This should improve with experience though.

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Actually, the complaints in Atlanta are that he locks onto Gonzo in more of a checkdown capacity. Outside of White & Gonzo though, Jenkins is awful and Douglas was out last year. So those were his two options. He didn't really have Norwood out of the backfield too much.

TheDirtyWord said:

Futz said:

I took Ryan in the 7th round of a 12 teamer. I like him but I find he locks onto Roddy a bit too much. I feel if he spread the ball around more that his numbers would improve. Not a knock on Roddy by any stretch but I think he has tunnel vision at times and the offense may suffer some because of it.This should improve with experience though.

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Actually, the complaints in Atlanta are that he locks onto Gonzo in more of a checkdown capacity. Outside of White & Gonzo though, Jenkins is awful and Douglas was out last year. So those were his two options. He didn't really have Norwood out of the backfield too much.

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Well, I can't say I've seen a ton of ATL games but the one's I did see, it was all Roddy, all the time. I wish they'd include the backs more and make a point to get the ball to other targets. Do you at least agree that that Ryan seems a bit too locked on a particular target? I chalk it up to inexperience and focusing on safety blankets.

Futz said:

TheDirtyWord said:

Futz said:

I took Ryan in the 7th round of a 12 teamer. I like him but I find he locks onto Roddy a bit too much. I feel if he spread the ball around more that his numbers would improve. Not a knock on Roddy by any stretch but I think he has tunnel vision at times and the offense may suffer some because of it.This should improve with experience though.

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Actually, the complaints in Atlanta are that he locks onto Gonzo in more of a checkdown capacity. Outside of White & Gonzo though, Jenkins is awful and Douglas was out last year. So those were his two options. He didn't really have Norwood out of the backfield too much.

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Well, I can't say I've seen a ton of ATL games but the one's I did see, it was all Roddy, all the time. I wish they'd include the backs more and make a point to get the ball to other targets. Do you at least agree that that Ryan seems a bit too locked on a particular target? I chalk it up to inexperience and focusing on safety blankets.

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It was quoted in a news story somewhere that Ryan said during the offseason he watched film of the top QBs in the league and came away with the philosophy of keep taking the short stuff until the defense takes it away. Maybe that's what's going on?