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DeAngelo Williams, RB, Carolina Panthers (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: DeAngelo Williams, RB, Carolina Panthers

Player Page Link: DeAngelo Williams Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

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[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

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[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
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I think people are missing the boat on Deangelo.

He is one year removed from 1500 yards 5.5 18 td's.

He played in 13 games last year and still had 1100 5.2 7.

I think the combo of himself and Jstew help each other out with wearing down the defenses.

I look for the Panthers to be better this season(despite some FA losses) and more opportunities for that backfield.

Deangelo- 250/1250/12 28/235/1

 
Williams actually averaged more yards from scrimmage last year (105.3 yfs) compared to 2008 (102.4). The main difference was his TD total (7 in 13 games in 2009 vs. 20 in 16 games in 2008).

I don't see Stewart going away, so that will limit Williams' touches to some extent. Once Williams went down late in the year, Stewart averaged 157 yfs over the final 3 games of the season.

260-1260-10

30-210-1

14 games played.

 
Dynamic player that is entrenched in a 2 back system with another dynamic talent in Stewart. Still, DWill is the lead dog for now and should get back to the explosiveness we saw in 2008. I look for Carolina to hand the ball off about 500 times between DWill/JStew, you can slice it up however you like but safely I think you can project...

250-1,200-10Tds

32-240-2Tds

275-300 touches, 1400-1500 yds, 12 Tds and this could go higher.

 
Stud.

No difference from last year in terms of carry distribution. DWill should be 60% and Stewart should get 40%. I expect Matt Moore to better manage the game which will give more scoring opportunities.

270 car, 1325 yds rushing, 13 TD

35 rec, 280 yds receiving, 1 TD

 
Agree with the above, super talented back in the best RBBC in football. If I was drafting at the end of a 12 team snake draft and he was there, I'd strongly consider locking up him and Stewart. The Carolina running game will produce.

280/1300/12-15TD

 
I have a tough time with Deangelo. He is probably one of the top 3 most talented backs in football, after CJ and ADP. But with the progression of Stewart, he's going to lose a ton of TD's.

I tend to think it's going to revert to a 50-50 split.

I still like him though because he's pretty safe. You can get him later than alot of guys above him, he'll probably justify his draft position, and his upside (which probably would include a Stewart injury) is the top 1 or 2 back in the league.

 
I don't think Deangelo will get pulled in a ton of red zone plays for Stewart, I think they go with whomever was in that series.

Williams is a great red zone RB too.

 
MrTwo94 said:
I don't see where people expect this 50-50 split. Fox has been giving DeAngelo the bulk for the last two years. All signs point to that continuing.16 gm x 17 carries = 272 x 5 ypc = 1360 yds 10 TD with 30 rec x 8 ypr = 240 yds 2 TDIt just feels wrong to predict 5 ypc but when he's averaged 5.5 and 5.2 the last two years, it almost feels conservative.This player spotlight isn't getting much love for a guy who could easily be a top 5 RB again.
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The love you refer to is usually for guys where the SP is split 50/50. I don't think most rational people can argue against DWill's talent. The only thing are JStew owners that want to push the agenda of Stew taking over. As long as DeAngelo is a Panther he is going to get a lot of touches even in a plsit, and he's going to produce high numbers. The OL is built to run, they have just enough at WR to keep teams honest, things should be good for DeAngleo this year and I also am a fan of Stewart and his special talents. 60/40 split IMO...until there are injuries and during those times both back shave shown they can handle the load and perform at a very high level.
 
I also think that people seem to be overlooking DeAngelo this season. I think a lot of that has to do with Stewart, but Fox is known for being intensely loyal to his veteran players. So as long as DeAngelo is on the field, Stewart isn't going to get any more touches than he has the last two seasons. I think a previous poster pointed out that they split carries by alternating series so I don't think Stewart is going to take all the touchdowns. DeAngelo has everything going for him except for the limited touches, so I think he's a safe bet to perform like a top ten back but without the top 5 upside. His 2008 season had him scoring an outlier number of touchdowns which I don't think you can count on again. If either of those two backs go down, the other instantly becomes an elite RB. The only other issue I can think of is that I remember they didn't really have any quality backups for their o-line last year and I don't know if they've addressed that or not.

260 carries for 1350 yards, 25 receptions for 200 yards and 11 total touchdowns.

I think he's an excellent back to take after the top four or five are taken.

 
Creed Bratton said:
I also think that people seem to be overlooking DeAngelo this season. I think a lot of that has to do with Stewart, but Fox is known for being intensely loyal to his veteran players. So as long as DeAngelo is on the field, Stewart isn't going to get any more touches than he has the last two seasons. I think a previous poster pointed out that they split carries by alternating series so I don't think Stewart is going to take all the touchdowns. DeAngelo has everything going for him except for the limited touches, so I think he's a safe bet to perform like a top ten back but without the top 5 upside. His 2008 season had him scoring an outlier number of touchdowns which I don't think you can count on again. If either of those two backs go down, the other instantly becomes an elite RB. The only other issue I can think of is that I remember they didn't really have any quality backups for their o-line last year and I don't know if they've addressed that or not.

260 carries for 1350 yards, 25 receptions for 200 yards and 11 total touchdowns.

I think he's an excellent back to take after the top four or five are taken.
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Agreed. Williams was really having a quietly superb year in 2009 but he was derailed by injuries in the seasons last quarter. Prior to getting injured though Williams and Stewart were dividing the workload at about a 63/37 split. No doubt that Stewart showed he could handle the #1 RB role...but with Williams in the last year of his contract and Stewart still only 23, it stands to reason that Carolina would feel comfortable enough with the previous arrangement when both backs were healthy.Someone also pointed out that Fox is loyal to his veterans to a fault, and this case, it wouldn't be a fault as Williams has averaged 5.4 YPC over 489 carries these last two seasons with 27 TD's. I think alot of people were wary of Williams coming off his spectacular 2nd half of 2008. But Williams showed he was no one trick pony, even if his TD's were down. But a continued ability to hit a 5 YPC average combined with a mauling O-Line and potentially a QB not as prone to turnovers could mean a resurgence for Carolina as a whole. I'd predict a 60/40 split again in Williams favor for a team that has been able to generate 894 carries between the two players these past two seasons. And as a bonus, Williams significantly ratcheted up his presence in the passing game in 2009 as he doubles his yardage and increased in receptions by 7 even though he missed 3.75 games. Without the true addition of a viable #2 WR and Mushin Muhammed no longer around, Williams could be leaned on even heavier in this regard.

Great value at the end of Round 1. Superb value in Round 2.

Prediction: 270 carries 1427 rushing yards, 9 TD's; 39 receptions 266 receiving yards 1 TD.

 
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My favorite RB in the league. Love the way he runs.

275 car - 1300 yds - 10 TDs

35 catches - 320 yds - 2 TDs

 
Creed Bratton said:
I also think that people seem to be overlooking DeAngelo this season. I think a lot of that has to do with Stewart, but Fox is known for being intensely loyal to his veteran players. So as long as DeAngelo is on the field, Stewart isn't going to get any more touches than he has the last two seasons. The only other issue I can think of is that I remember they didn't really have any quality backups for their o-line last year and I don't know if they've addressed that or not.
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I don't think the number of touches each back got last year had to do with Fox loyalty. I think it had to do with Stewart playing on a bum achilles all season long. He had surgery during the offseason and so did DeAngelo. DeAngelo is back practicing, but Stewart hasn't started yet. If Stewart's achilles is healthy by the start of the season, I think it will be more of a 50/50 split. They also have an unique close friendship, and both want each other to play and do well. There is no ego clashing between those two.The backup players that played on the OL near the end of last year did a good job.
 
meanjoegreen said:
Creed Bratton said:
I also think that people seem to be overlooking DeAngelo this season. I think a lot of that has to do with Stewart, but Fox is known for being intensely loyal to his veteran players. So as long as DeAngelo is on the field, Stewart isn't going to get any more touches than he has the last two seasons. The only other issue I can think of is that I remember they didn't really have any quality backups for their o-line last year and I don't know if they've addressed that or not.
Click to expand...
I don't think the number of touches each back got last year had to do with Fox loyalty. I think it had to do with Stewart playing on a bum achilles all season long. He had surgery during the offseason and so did DeAngelo. DeAngelo is back practicing, but Stewart hasn't started yet. If Stewart's achilles is healthy by the start of the season, I think it will be more of a 50/50 split. They also have an unique close friendship, and both want each other to play and do well. There is no ego clashing between those two.The backup players that played on the OL near the end of last year did a good job.
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I think that you're wrong about the reasons why Fox split the touches the way he did and to assume that it'll be fifty-fifty this season. He is loyal to his veterans. That's why he stuck with Delhomme so long last year. And DeShuan Foster a couple years before. He's a conservative coach who believes in defense and running the football with two backs. In seven seasons with the panthers he's NEVER split the carries straight down the middle. When his starter was better than the backup, the starter got more carries. When the starter and backup were equally good, the starter got more carries. When the backup was better than the starter, the starter got more carries. You don't think it's more reasonable to think that in one of the league's most successful rushing offenses that he's going to split the carries between the same two backs behind the same offensive line in the same offensive scheme the same way he has the last two seasons? I think that is much, much more likely than to start projecting that he's going to divide the workload in a way he has never done before.
 
Creed Bratton said:
You don't think it's more reasonable to think that in one of the league's most successful rushing offenses that he's going to split the carries between the same two backs behind the same offensive line in the same offensive scheme the same way he has the last two seasons? I think that is much, much more likely than to start projecting that he's going to divide the workload in a way he has never done before.
Click to expand...
As I stated, I think it will be more of a 50/50 split this year if Stewart is recovered completely from his surgery.
 
meanjoegreen said:
Creed Bratton said:
You don't think it's more reasonable to think that in one of the league's most successful rushing offenses that he's going to split the carries between the same two backs behind the same offensive line in the same offensive scheme the same way he has the last two seasons? I think that is much, much more likely than to start projecting that he's going to divide the workload in a way he has never done before.
Click to expand...
As I stated, I think it will be more of a 50/50 split this year if Stewart is recovered completely from his surgery.
Click to expand...
With this said is anyone trying to acquire both backs this season? DeAngelo late first/second round and Stewart in the 4th if he's there?
 
meanjoegreen said:
Creed Bratton said:
I also think that people seem to be overlooking DeAngelo this season. I think a lot of that has to do with Stewart, but Fox is known for being intensely loyal to his veteran players. So as long as DeAngelo is on the field, Stewart isn't going to get any more touches than he has the last two seasons.

The only other issue I can think of is that I remember they didn't really have any quality backups for their o-line last year and I don't know if they've addressed that or not.
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I don't think the number of touches each back got last year had to do with Fox loyalty. I think it had to do with Stewart playing on a bum achilles all season long. He had surgery during the offseason and so did DeAngelo. DeAngelo is back practicing, but Stewart hasn't started yet. If Stewart's achilles is healthy by the start of the season, I think it will be more of a 50/50 split. They also have an unique close friendship, and both want each other to play and do well. There is no ego clashing between those two.The backup players that played on the OL near the end of last year did a good job.
Click to expand...
There is no way that this will be true. Fox has never done 50/50 and the way they use the running backs now is perfect. Stewart seems to play later in games as the defense wears down because he is a more physical back. Williams is the starter and will continue to get 60-70% of the carries. But Stewart will still produce as a really good RB #2 in most leagues.

Dwill 1200yds 9 tds, 4 tds rec 300 yards rec

 
the spanker said:
meanjoegreen said:
Creed Bratton said:
You don't think it's more reasonable to think that in one of the league's most successful rushing offenses that he's going to split the carries between the same two backs behind the same offensive line in the same offensive scheme the same way he has the last two seasons? I think that is much, much more likely than to start projecting that he's going to divide the workload in a way he has never done before.
Click to expand...
As I stated, I think it will be more of a 50/50 split this year if Stewart is recovered completely from his surgery.
Click to expand...
With this said is anyone trying to acquire both backs this season? DeAngelo late first/second round and Stewart in the 4th if he's there?
Click to expand...
i'm considering this in an auction draft
 
degenerate said:
the spanker said:
meanjoegreen said:
Creed Bratton said:
You don't think it's more reasonable to think that in one of the league's most successful rushing offenses that he's going to split the carries between the same two backs behind the same offensive line in the same offensive scheme the same way he has the last two seasons? I think that is much, much more likely than to start projecting that he's going to divide the workload in a way he has never done before.
Click to expand...
As I stated, I think it will be more of a 50/50 split this year if Stewart is recovered completely from his surgery.
Click to expand...
With this said is anyone trying to acquire both backs this season? DeAngelo late first/second round and Stewart in the 4th if he's there?
Click to expand...
i'm considering this in an auction draft
Click to expand...
TO me that is incredibly stupid. You are spending 2 picks in the first 4 rounds on a RB#1. If you have to start both at any point in the season then your team is kaput.
 
pantherclub said:
degenerate said:
the spanker said:
meanjoegreen said:
Creed Bratton said:
You don't think it's more reasonable to think that in one of the league's most successful rushing offenses that he's going to split the carries between the same two backs behind the same offensive line in the same offensive scheme the same way he has the last two seasons? I think that is much, much more likely than to start projecting that he's going to divide the workload in a way he has never done before.
Click to expand...
As I stated, I think it will be more of a 50/50 split this year if Stewart is recovered completely from his surgery.
Click to expand...
With this said is anyone trying to acquire both backs this season? DeAngelo late first/second round and Stewart in the 4th if he's there?
Click to expand...
i'm considering this in an auction draft
Click to expand...
TO me that is incredibly stupid. You are spending 2 picks in the first 4 rounds on a RB#1. If you have to start both at any point in the season then your team is kaput.
Click to expand...
I don't think it's stupid.
 
the spanker said:
meanjoegreen said:
Creed Bratton said:
You don't think it's more reasonable to think that in one of the league's most successful rushing offenses that he's going to split the carries between the same two backs behind the same offensive line in the same offensive scheme the same way he has the last two seasons? I think that is much, much more likely than to start projecting that he's going to divide the workload in a way he has never done before.
Click to expand...
As I stated, I think it will be more of a 50/50 split this year if Stewart is recovered completely from his surgery.
Click to expand...
With this said is anyone trying to acquire both backs this season? DeAngelo late first/second round and Stewart in the 4th if he's there?
Click to expand...
While I think it would be great to acquire both backs, I think last year or the season before would have been the time to do it. The price is probably going to be too high on Stewart for that strategy to be worth it. I'm guessing that if you compare how many fantasy points that you'll get out of your starting lineup compared to alternative players at those positions, it isn't going to increase your scoring output, and might actually hurt it. But depending on your league format, and confidence to find value elsewhere in the draft, it's still an option worth considering because it's still a good idea to side with talent. Larry Johnson is a pretty good example. He probably wasn't great value for what you could expect reasonably expect from him for his price tag. But that didn't mean he didn't pay off in 2005 after Priest Holmes went down.
 
If you pick them both you are either planning on benching one of your top picks, or you are extremely confident that they will both be 1100+ yard rushers. Either scenario is going against the grain. I would much prefer to grab the one you think will be most valuable (DeAngelo?) and then follow it up with someone like Felix Jones (who will get the same or better split that Stewart would get, but might actually get 40+ receptions to go with it).

 
the spanker said:
meanjoegreen said:
Creed Bratton said:
You don't think it's more reasonable to think that in one of the league's most successful rushing offenses that he's going to split the carries between the same two backs behind the same offensive line in the same offensive scheme the same way he has the last two seasons? I think that is much, much more likely than to start projecting that he's going to divide the workload in a way he has never done before.
Click to expand...
As I stated, I think it will be more of a 50/50 split this year if Stewart is recovered completely from his surgery.
Click to expand...
With this said is anyone trying to acquire both backs this season? DeAngelo late first/second round and Stewart in the 4th if he's there?
Click to expand...
That's always been a recipe for disaster. Assuming you are starting them, one of them will at all times be doing nothing. You will be sharing TD's. It worse than the common mistake people make having the RB and WR from the same team.
 
i really wish this thread was merged with the stewart thread.

john fox is coaching for his job this year. if he thinks stewart's production over the last 4 games last year warrants a 50.50 split - or even a 60.40 split in stewart's favor - then that is what will happen. he isn't going to stick with williams with his job on the line if he thinks stewart deserves more carries.

signed,

stewart owner

 
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bweiser said:
i really wish this thread was merged with the stewart thread.john fox is coaching for his job this year. if he thinks stewart's production over the last 4 games last year warrants a 50.50 split - or even a 60.40 split in stewart's favor - then that is what will happen. he isn't going to stick with williams with his job on the line if he thinks stewart deserves more carries.signed,stewart owner
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It seems as if you're wishing for good things to happen for the player you own when concrete facts suggest otherwise. After Delhomme's disastrous start last year, John Fox was coaching for his job last season. That didn't stop him from starting Jake Delhomme, who threw 8 TDs and 18 INTs, until December last year. And why wouldn't he stick with Williams? Not a soul on this board could characterize his performance the last two seasons as being less than great.
 
Omally could you explain why you think this is a good idea? Could you give us the best case scenario in which this would most benefit your team?

As I see it you are wasting a high pick on one position and gambling that one of the 2 will be all world. You would never make up those lost points.

 
pantherclub said:
Omally could you explain why you think this is a good idea? Could you give us the best case scenario in which this would most benefit your team?As I see it you are wasting a high pick on one position and gambling that one of the 2 will be all world. You would never make up those lost points.
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This strategy has been very successful for me. I own CJ3, Michael Turner, Willams and Stewart in my main dynasty league. Basically my game plan is to get an RB3 out of Willams and Stewart. I ride the hot hand late in the season (williams 08, stewart 09) and have been very fortunate the way it's played out. There have been a couple occasions where I've started both (tampa bay game 2008) and that isn't really as bad a proposition as it seems. These guys are so explosive that they can both have huge games in the same game. I agree with the poster that said this might not be the year to grab stewart for this kind of arrangement. His ADP may be too high. As a counterpoint, if you do take both of these guys in auction or draft format, you're basically guaraneed one stud. It may be worth the risk.
 
I've considered pairing the two, but that's in a keeper league where I already own Ray Rice and have an extra early pick, so the circumstances are a little different.

In a redraft I can't imagine pairing them up. Looking at their value they'd be drafted as your RB1 and RB2 and I just do not see that as the best way to maximize value on your draft board. It is an intriguing idea since you're basically guaranteed an RB1 for the year and are looking at an all-world stud if one of them loses time to injury, but I think those early picks are better spent elsewhere rather than locking up a RB tandem.

 
BlueBandit24 said:
I've considered pairing the two, but that's in a keeper league where I already own Ray Rice and have an extra early pick, so the circumstances are a little different.In a redraft I can't imagine pairing them up. Looking at their value they'd be drafted as your RB1 and RB2 and I just do not see that as the best way to maximize value on your draft board. It is an intriguing idea since you're basically guaranteed an RB1 for the year and are looking at an all-world stud if one of them loses time to injury, but I think those early picks are better spent elsewhere rather than locking up a RB tandem.
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Agree on redraft. Last year it may have been a better deal, given their ADPs, but this year the cost is prohibitive. Every league is different and there may be situations where stewart and or deangelo would fall to the point that it becomes viable but that seems unlikely. Perhaps a better move would be to grab either one of them and stick needles into a voodoo doll of the other.
 
pantherclub said:
Omally could you explain why you think this is a good idea? Could you give us the best case scenario in which this would most benefit your team?As I see it you are wasting a high pick on one position and gambling that one of the 2 will be all world. You would never make up those lost points.
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Sure you can make up the lost points. There are tons of fantasy busts drafted in the first 4 rounds. Drafting a mediocre player early doesn't tank the season, so long as you hit in the middle of the draft, and get good value at QB.Drafting Williams AND Stewart hedges risk. That said, I think Stewart is off the board by mid 3rd round in non-ppr leagues.
 
meanjoegreen said:
Creed Bratton said:
I also think that people seem to be overlooking DeAngelo this season. I think a lot of that has to do with Stewart, but Fox is known for being intensely loyal to his veteran players. So as long as DeAngelo is on the field, Stewart isn't going to get any more touches than he has the last two seasons. The only other issue I can think of is that I remember they didn't really have any quality backups for their o-line last year and I don't know if they've addressed that or not.
Click to expand...
I don't think the number of touches each back got last year had to do with Fox loyalty. I think it had to do with Stewart playing on a bum achilles all season long. He had surgery during the offseason and so did DeAngelo. DeAngelo is back practicing, but Stewart hasn't started yet. If Stewart's achilles is healthy by the start of the season, I think it will be more of a 50/50 split. They also have an unique close friendship, and both want each other to play and do well. There is no ego clashing between those two.The backup players that played on the OL near the end of last year did a good job.
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OK, I see what you are saying, which is that Williams getting 63% of the carries wasn't a by-product of Fox's supposed loyalty to veterans, but because of Stewart's achilles injury.But right now, Stewart still hasn't recovered from the surgery to said injury, making it his 3rd off-season (out of 3 so far) where he hasn't been able to fully participate in off-season team activities.And yet, you see Stewart not being fully recovered from yet another nagging injury, as some kind of indicator that he will get an increased workload this year?I don't agree with your line of thinking.
 
bweiser said:
i really wish this thread was merged with the stewart thread.john fox is coaching for his job this year. if he thinks stewart's production over the last 4 games last year warrants a 50.50 split - or even a 60.40 split in stewart's favor - then that is what will happen. he isn't going to stick with williams with his job on the line if he thinks stewart deserves more carries.signed,stewart owner
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:fishing: :lmao: :wall: :lmao: :lmao: :lmao: :lmao: :lmao: :lmao: :lmao:
 
DeAngelo Williams has been one of my favorite RBs, due to his abilities and also that he is from Arkansas. In spite of the fact that he chose to attend Memphis rather than become a Razorback, I always followed his career. He has rarely been on my fantasy teams though and probably will not again in 2010.

There are two factors working against selecting Williams. First consideration is that despite his talents and high projections, he is firmly involved in an RBBC situation. His current ADP is RB 9 and 14 overall AND his RBBC partner, Jonathan Stewart has a current ADP of RB 14 and 34 overall. You have to draft early to get Williams and it is just too expensive to grab both portions of the RBBC.

Second factor is that I belive that the Panthers should and will pass more often than in recent seasons and more efficiently. Even though, I anticipate that the Panthers will run often and well, it could potentially be less than recently.

Consider the following recent stats:

07 285 comp 505 att 2943 yds 5.8 ypa 19 TDs 17 int 461 rushes 1824 yds 3.96 ypc 7 TDs

08 246 comp 414 att 3288 yds 7.9 ypa 15 TDs 12 int 504 rushes 2437 yds 4.83 ypc 30 TDs

09 264 comp 465 att 3070 yds 6.6 ypa 16 TDs 20 int 525 rushes 2498 yds 4.76 ypc 18TDs

Carolina's passing efficiency has been miserable for the past three seasons and there is little doubt that it improved toward the end of the season a year ago. I am not projecting a large uptick, but some improvement is within reason. When the passing attempts go down, it is reasonable for a little decrease in the phenomenal rushing stats of the past two years. A year ago the Panther pair finished 14th and 11th. For them to individually finish higher, it would seem that they would need either an injury or more predicition. I just can't bet on higher production when both the Saints and the Falcons appear to be improving. My only projection is that I do beleive that when the Panthers have goal to go inside the five that Stewart will get more opportunities.

DeAngelo Williams 16 gms 240 carries 1200 yards 5.0 ypc 40 targets 30 catches 240 yds 8.0 ypc & 7 TDs

 
simey said:
Bayhawks said:
And yet, you see Stewart not being fully recovered from yet another nagging injury, as some kind of indicator that he will get an increased workload this year?
Click to expand...
That isn't what he said.
Click to expand...
Oh, really?Note the bolded part of the quote below, where he states Stewart was injured last season, had surgery and is not yet practicing. The would be the "not fully recovered from yet another nagging injury."

Then note the underlined part of the quote below, where he expects a 50/50 split. Since Stewart was only getting about 37% of the carries before Williams' injury (mentioned in the thread, and what this quoted post is referring to), 50% of the carries would be an "increased workload."

meanjoegreen said:
I don't think the number of touches each back got last year had to do with Fox loyalty. I think it had to do with Stewart playing on a bum achilles all season long. He had surgery during the offseason and so did DeAngelo. DeAngelo is back practicing, but Stewart hasn't started yet. If Stewart's achilles is healthy by the start of the season, I think it will be more of a 50/50 split. They also have an unique close friendship, and both want each other to play and do well. There is no ego clashing between those two.

The backup players that played on the OL near the end of last year did a good job.
Click to expand...
 
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rzrback77 said:
DeAngelo Williams has been one of my favorite RBs, due to his abilities and also that he is from Arkansas. In spite of the fact that he chose to attend Memphis rather than become a Razorback, I always followed his career. He has rarely been on my fantasy teams though and probably will not again in 2010.There are two factors working against selecting Williams. First consideration is that despite his talents and high projections, he is firmly involved in an RBBC situation. His current ADP is RB 9 and 14 overall AND his RBBC partner, Jonathan Stewart has a current ADP of RB 14 and 34 overall. You have to draft early to get Williams and it is just too expensive to grab both portions of the RBBC.Second factor is that I belive that the Panthers should and will pass more often than in recent seasons and more efficiently. Even though, I anticipate that the Panthers will run often and well, it could potentially be less than recently.Consider the following recent stats:07 285 comp 505 att 2943 yds 5.8 ypa 19 TDs 17 int 461 rushes 1824 yds 3.96 ypc 7 TDs08 246 comp 414 att 3288 yds 7.9 ypa 15 TDs 12 int 504 rushes 2437 yds 4.83 ypc 30 TDs09 264 comp 465 att 3070 yds 6.6 ypa 16 TDs 20 int 525 rushes 2498 yds 4.76 ypc 18TDsCarolina's passing efficiency has been miserable for the past three seasons and there is little doubt that it improved toward the end of the season a year ago. I am not projecting a large uptick, but some improvement is within reason. When the passing attempts go down, it is reasonable for a little decrease in the phenomenal rushing stats of the past two years. A year ago the Panther pair finished 14th and 11th. For them to individually finish higher, it would seem that they would need either an injury or more predicition. I just can't bet on higher production when both the Saints and the Falcons appear to be improving. My only projection is that I do beleive that when the Panthers have goal to go inside the five that Stewart will get more opportunities.DeAngelo Williams 16 gms 240 carries 1200 yards 5.0 ypc 40 targets 30 catches 240 yds 8.0 ypc & 7 TDs
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I'm usually on board with 85% of what you post in these player spotlights. You are the Richard Dawson(Match Game circa 70s) of these threads, you don't miss a one. That said I think you are way off on DWill's Tds. You discount the fact he got hurt some last season, and not to mention the ceiling that we and John Fox saw when he was the primary back in 2008...JStew is not going to post those numbers. He's good but his ceiling is lower than DWill. In fact I will go one record and say that Stewrt will never have a season as good as what DWill did in 2008. 240-1200-40-300 and a reasonable expectation of about 10-12 Tds would put DeAngelo in my top 7-8 for sure.
 
Ministry of Pain said:
I'm usually on board with 85% of what you post in these player spotlights. You are the Richard Dawson(Match Game circa 70s) of these threads, you don't miss a one.

That said I think you are way off on DWill's Tds. You discount the fact he got hurt some last season, and not to mention the ceiling that we and John Fox saw when he was the primary back in 2008...JStew is not going to post those numbers. He's good but his ceiling is lower than DWill. In fact I will go one record and say that Stewrt will never have a season as good as what DWill did in 2008.

240-1200-40-300 and a reasonable expectation of about 10-12 Tds would put DeAngelo in my top 7-8 for sure.
Click to expand...
I agree with you that Williams (if healthy) should produce double digit TDs in Carolina's offense (especially if the QB play is improved). I also agree with you that Stewart's ceiling is lower than Williams'. I believe Williams is the better RB.That being said, the bolded above isn't THAT bold of a statement. Williams' 2008 season was one of the all-time great seasons by a RB. 1500 rush yards, over 5 YPC, 20 total TDs--very few RBs have put up those numbers. I don't think Stewart is capable of putting up those numbers, but I'm also fairly confident that Williams will be unlikely to duplicate his 2008 season.

 
Bayhawks said:
Ministry of Pain said:
I'm usually on board with 85% of what you post in these player spotlights. You are the Richard Dawson(Match Game circa 70s) of these threads, you don't miss a one.

That said I think you are way off on DWill's Tds. You discount the fact he got hurt some last season, and not to mention the ceiling that we and John Fox saw when he was the primary back in 2008...JStew is not going to post those numbers. He's good but his ceiling is lower than DWill. In fact I will go one record and say that Stewrt will never have a season as good as what DWill did in 2008.

240-1200-40-300 and a reasonable expectation of about 10-12 Tds would put DeAngelo in my top 7-8 for sure.
Click to expand...
I agree with you that Williams (if healthy) should produce double digit TDs in Carolina's offense (especially if the QB play is improved). I also agree with you that Stewart's ceiling is lower than Williams'. I believe Williams is the better RB.That being said, the bolded above isn't THAT bold of a statement. Williams' 2008 season was one of the all-time great seasons by a RB. 1500 rush yards, over 5 YPC, 20 total TDs--very few RBs have put up those numbers. I don't think Stewart is capable of putting up those numbers, but I'm also fairly confident that Williams will be unlikely to duplicate his 2008 season.
Click to expand...
I disagree, if he is the primary back be it Carolina or any other team I think he is perfectly capable of running numbers very close if not right at that again...he did a lot of damage the 2nd half of the season, much like Chris Johnson last year after week 6.
 
Ministry of Pain said:
Bayhawks said:
Ministry of Pain said:
I'm usually on board with 85% of what you post in these player spotlights. You are the Richard Dawson(Match Game circa 70s) of these threads, you don't miss a one.

That said I think you are way off on DWill's Tds. You discount the fact he got hurt some last season, and not to mention the ceiling that we and John Fox saw when he was the primary back in 2008...JStew is not going to post those numbers. He's good but his ceiling is lower than DWill. In fact I will go one record and say that Stewrt will never have a season as good as what DWill did in 2008.

240-1200-40-300 and a reasonable expectation of about 10-12 Tds would put DeAngelo in my top 7-8 for sure.
Click to expand...
I agree with you that Williams (if healthy) should produce double digit TDs in Carolina's offense (especially if the QB play is improved). I also agree with you that Stewart's ceiling is lower than Williams'. I believe Williams is the better RB.That being said, the bolded above isn't THAT bold of a statement. Williams' 2008 season was one of the all-time great seasons by a RB. 1500 rush yards, over 5 YPC, 20 total TDs--very few RBs have put up those numbers. I don't think Stewart is capable of putting up those numbers, but I'm also fairly confident that Williams will be unlikely to duplicate his 2008 season.
Click to expand...
I disagree, if he is the primary back be it Carolina or any other team I think he is perfectly capable of running numbers very close if not right at that again...he did a lot of damage the 2nd half of the season, much like Chris Johnson last year after week 6.
Click to expand...
Don't get me wrong-I believe he's capable, especially of the yards and the YPC (if he's the primary back), but the TD numbers are going to be hard. He'd either have to get a whole lot of goal-line looks, or break a number of long TDs, or more likely both.
 
Bayhawks said:
meanjoegreen said:
Creed Bratton said:
I also think that people seem to be overlooking DeAngelo this season. I think a lot of that has to do with Stewart, but Fox is known for being intensely loyal to his veteran players. So as long as DeAngelo is on the field, Stewart isn't going to get any more touches than he has the last two seasons. The only other issue I can think of is that I remember they didn't really have any quality backups for their o-line last year and I don't know if they've addressed that or not.
Click to expand...
I don't think the number of touches each back got last year had to do with Fox loyalty. I think it had to do with Stewart playing on a bum achilles all season long. He had surgery during the offseason and so did DeAngelo. DeAngelo is back practicing, but Stewart hasn't started yet. If Stewart's achilles is healthy by the start of the season, I think it will be more of a 50/50 split. They also have an unique close friendship, and both want each other to play and do well. There is no ego clashing between those two.The backup players that played on the OL near the end of last year did a good job.
Click to expand...
OK, I see what you are saying, which is that Williams getting 63% of the carries wasn't a by-product of Fox's supposed loyalty to veterans, but because of Stewart's achilles injury.But right now, Stewart still hasn't recovered from the surgery to said injury, making it his 3rd off-season (out of 3 so far) where he hasn't been able to fully participate in off-season team activities.And yet, you see Stewart not being fully recovered from yet another nagging injury, as some kind of indicator that he will get an increased workload this year?I don't agree with your line of thinking.
Click to expand...
I didn't say anything about another nagging injury or that I don't see Stewart fully recovered therefore he will get an increased workload. I said if his achilles is healthy by the beginning of the season, which his achilles is what he had the surgery on, I could see more of a 50/50 split. DeAngelo just returned to doing some workouts on the field a week or two ago, so it's not like he has been participating in a ton of activities thus far in the off-season. Training camp is still several weeks away, and I haven't read or heard anything to make one assume that Stewart won't be there. I think Williams will be the starter as usual, but Stewart will see more time on the field this coming season compared to last season.
 
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Ministry of Pain said:
Bayhawks said:
Ministry of Pain said:
I'm usually on board with 85% of what you post in these player spotlights. You are the Richard Dawson(Match Game circa 70s) of these threads, you don't miss a one.

That said I think you are way off on DWill's Tds. You discount the fact he got hurt some last season, and not to mention the ceiling that we and John Fox saw when he was the primary back in 2008...JStew is not going to post those numbers. He's good but his ceiling is lower than DWill. In fact I will go one record and say that Stewrt will never have a season as good as what DWill did in 2008.

240-1200-40-300 and a reasonable expectation of about 10-12 Tds would put DeAngelo in my top 7-8 for sure.
Click to expand...
I agree with you that Williams (if healthy) should produce double digit TDs in Carolina's offense (especially if the QB play is improved). I also agree with you that Stewart's ceiling is lower than Williams'. I believe Williams is the better RB.That being said, the bolded above isn't THAT bold of a statement. Williams' 2008 season was one of the all-time great seasons by a RB. 1500 rush yards, over 5 YPC, 20 total TDs--very few RBs have put up those numbers. I don't think Stewart is capable of putting up those numbers, but I'm also fairly confident that Williams will be unlikely to duplicate his 2008 season.
Click to expand...
I disagree, if he is the primary back be it Carolina or any other team I think he is perfectly capable of running numbers very close if not right at that again...he did a lot of damage the 2nd half of the season, much like Chris Johnson last year after week 6.
Click to expand...
I think 20 TDs is such a rare occurrence that it's difficult to predict it happening again. I think the 1500 yards is possible except that Stewart is going to get enough touches to make that very difficult to do. I think Williams could get 1500 yards and 12-15 TDs if he got 300 carries plus a few receptions, but I also think Stewart could do the same. I think Stewart has a ceiling every bit as high as D Will's ceiling...but I want to make it clear that I don't think saying that means I expect Stewart to get 20 TDs. A high ceiling to me is not a single season of high numbers. If Williams puts up 20 TDs again and Stewart never does, then obviously my statement will be proven wrong, but if Stewart puts up any 1500 yard 15 TD seasons, then I will consider that elite enough to justify my prediction. The hard part is this: How many total touches will the 2 RBs have? The projections I am seeing seem to indicate either people expect over 500 carries just with these 2 RBs, or that Stewart will only get 175 or so carries and I don't think either will happen.

I see Williams getting between 50 and 55% of the carries with more receptions. I can see many situations where Fox rides the hot hand and it will be very frustrating because it's impossible to predict this.

I also don't believe that predicting close to a 50-50 split means that people are underestimating how great of a RB Williams is. I think it is because people believe Stewart is elite too. That's part of why I think it will be close to 50-50. The Stewart that started at the end of last year was every bit as impressive as any RB I saw all of last year (outside of Chris Johnson, obviously). To me, if Fox is smart, he will keep both RBs fresh and split the carries. He also has no reason whatsoever to not ride the hot hand.

I realize it is a contrarian opinion with regards to this thread to suggest this, but I believe Stewart is every bit as talented as Williams. He has not had the opportunity to prove whether this is true or not. He may not ever get 20 TDs, but that alone will not prove me right or wrong. I understand people think Williams is clearly better than Stewart and that explains the prediction of Williams getting 60-65% of the carries. That is fine if you believe that. I don't think there is a difference in talent so my predictions are more along Williams getting 50-55%. I also don't think the past determines this year. Stewart had minor surgery to clean up the bones around his achilles and that should alleviate the problems he had....problems by the way that never caused him to miss a game. I think a healthy Stewart gets 45-50% of carries.

Williams in 2010:

250 carries

1225 yards (4.9 ypc)

32 receptions for 270 yards

10 total TDs

By the way, I think Stewart will have about 225 carries, close to the same yards per carry, 20 receptions, and 12-13 TDs.

I will not be surprised if the amount of carries are reversed, but the above is what I believe and for the reasons I listed.

 
Anthony Borbely said:
Ministry of Pain said:
Bayhawks said:
Ministry of Pain said:
I'm usually on board with 85% of what you post in these player spotlights. You are the Richard Dawson(Match Game circa 70s) of these threads, you don't miss a one.

That said I think you are way off on DWill's Tds. You discount the fact he got hurt some last season, and not to mention the ceiling that we and John Fox saw when he was the primary back in 2008...JStew is not going to post those numbers. He's good but his ceiling is lower than DWill. In fact I will go one record and say that Stewrt will never have a season as good as what DWill did in 2008.

240-1200-40-300 and a reasonable expectation of about 10-12 Tds would put DeAngelo in my top 7-8 for sure.
Click to expand...
I agree with you that Williams (if healthy) should produce double digit TDs in Carolina's offense (especially if the QB play is improved). I also agree with you that Stewart's ceiling is lower than Williams'. I believe Williams is the better RB.That being said, the bolded above isn't THAT bold of a statement. Williams' 2008 season was one of the all-time great seasons by a RB. 1500 rush yards, over 5 YPC, 20 total TDs--very few RBs have put up those numbers. I don't think Stewart is capable of putting up those numbers, but I'm also fairly confident that Williams will be unlikely to duplicate his 2008 season.
Click to expand...
I disagree, if he is the primary back be it Carolina or any other team I think he is perfectly capable of running numbers very close if not right at that again...he did a lot of damage the 2nd half of the season, much like Chris Johnson last year after week 6.
Click to expand...
I think 20 TDs is such a rare occurrence that it's difficult to predict it happening again. I think the 1500 yards is possible except that Stewart is going to get enough touches to make that very difficult to do. I think Williams could get 1500 yards and 12-15 TDs if he got 300 carries plus a few receptions, but I also think Stewart could do the same. I think Stewart has a ceiling every bit as high as D Will's ceiling...but I want to make it clear that I don't think saying that means I expect Stewart to get 20 TDs. A high ceiling to me is not a single season of high numbers. If Williams puts up 20 TDs again and Stewart never does, then obviously my statement will be proven wrong, but if Stewart puts up any 1500 yard 15 TD seasons, then I will consider that elite enough to justify my prediction. The hard part is this: How many total touches will the 2 RBs have? The projections I am seeing seem to indicate either people expect over 500 carries just with these 2 RBs, or that Stewart will only get 175 or so carries and I don't think either will happen.

I see Williams getting between 50 and 55% of the carries with more receptions. I can see many situations where Fox rides the hot hand and it will be very frustrating because it's impossible to predict this.

I also don't believe that predicting close to a 50-50 split means that people are underestimating how great of a RB Williams is. I think it is because people believe Stewart is elite too. That's part of why I think it will be close to 50-50. The Stewart that started at the end of last year was every bit as impressive as any RB I saw all of last year (outside of Chris Johnson, obviously). To me, if Fox is smart, he will keep both RBs fresh and split the carries. He also has no reason whatsoever to not ride the hot hand.

I realize it is a contrarian opinion with regards to this thread to suggest this, but I believe Stewart is every bit as talented as Williams. He has not had the opportunity to prove whether this is true or not. He may not ever get 20 TDs, but that alone will not prove me right or wrong. I understand people think Williams is clearly better than Stewart and that explains the prediction of Williams getting 60-65% of the carries. That is fine if you believe that. I don't think there is a difference in talent so my predictions are more along Williams getting 50-55%. I also don't think the past determines this year. Stewart had minor surgery to clean up the bones around his achilles and that should alleviate the problems he had....problems by the way that never caused him to miss a game. I think a healthy Stewart gets 45-50% of carries.

Williams in 2010:

250 carries

1225 yards (4.9 ypc)

32 receptions for 270 yards

10 total TDs

By the way, I think Stewart will have about 225 carries, close to the same yards per carry, 20 receptions, and 12-13 TDs.

I will not be surprised if the amount of carries are reversed, but the above is what I believe and for the reasons I listed.
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I actually don't think it's really a contrarian opinion to suggest that Stewart and Williams are both very talented. My opinion, and I think that many people would agree with me, is that both are elite backs and I'd be hard pressed to point to one as being definitively the better back. But just because we may not be sure who is the better overall back doesn't mean that the coaching staff doesn't have their own ideas on how to split the workload. I just don't think that because the two backs may have an equal amount of talent that that it will translate into an equal amount of carries in this situation.
 
I'd also like to point out that Joe Montana and Steve Young were both extremely talented players on the same team and that did not result in equal playing time for the two players. I realize the comparison is hardly fair because the quarterback position is completely different from the running back position. But the point I'm trying to make is that sometimes factors besides pure talent play a role in determining which players play and how much they are on the field.

 
meanjoegreen said:
1-I didn't say anything about another nagging injury
Click to expand...
You said:
think it had to do with Stewart playing on a bum achilles all season long.
Click to expand...
1-I would think an injury that plagued him for a full season would qualify as nagging.
2-or that I don't see Stewart fully recovered therefore he will get an increased workload.
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2-You said:
DeAngelo is back practicing, but Stewart hasn't started yet. If Stewart's achilles is healthy by the start of the season, I think it will be more of a 50/50 split.
Click to expand...
By your own words, you state that Williams is healthy enough to practice, but Stewart isn't, AND YET you think Stewart will (if he recovers fully) get a higher percentage of the carries than the RB1, who is already healthy.
3-I think Williams will be the starter as usual, but Stewart will see more time on the field this coming season compared to last season.
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3-I understand that this is what you believe, but as I've pointed out, it's based on VERY shaky logic. Believing that a RB who is currently unable to practice, who has been nagged by injuries his ENTIRE pro career, and who has not out-performed the Pro-Bowl RB ahead of him (although he did have 16 more rushing yards in 2009) on the depth chart just doesn't make sense, and I don't see how anyone can agree with your reasoning.
 
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