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Shonn Greene, RB, New York Jets (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

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Thread Topic: Shonn Greene, RB, New York Jets

Player Page Link: Shonn Greene Player Page

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Going against the grain on this one. I believe Greene may be the most over valued Rb this season. Kid has no special elite skills, can't catch, and puts the ball on the ground a tad too much. LT will take away a ton of red zone chances and catch everything out of the backfield. As good as he looked last year in the post season....I truly believe he was the benefactor of really fresh legs going agianst teams that were beat up from a long season. He clearly looked quicker than everyone around him...and he is not a fast player. Let's see 16 games of grinding and how that impacts his numbers. PLus LT is there and ready to show he is not washed up...and that OL is awesome and LT should see some daylight like he has not seen in years.

600 yards rushing 4 TD's. 10 receptions 50 yards

Bust based on current ADP.

 
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Going against the grain on this one. I believe Greene may be the most over valued Rb this season. Kid has no special elite skills, can't catch, and puts the ball on the ground a tad too much. LT will take away a ton of red zone chances and catch everything out of the backfield. As good as he looked last year in the post season....I truly believe he was the benefactor of really fresh legs going agianst teams that were beat up from a long season. He clearly looked quicker than everyone around him...and he is not a fast player. Let's see 16 games of grinding and how that impacts his numbers. PLus LT is there and ready to show he is not washed up...and that OL is awesome and LT should see some daylight like he has not seen in years.600 yards rushing 4 TD's. 10 receptions 50 yardsBust based on current ADP.
No defenders get beat up that much from previous games played. It is different if you come in fresh in the 4th quarter.He is hard to figure but I don't see LT getting all the throws and goal line looks. And the Jets really like Greene.I say 1100 and 5 TDs.20 receptions 150 and 2 TDs.
 
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Going against the grain on this one. I believe Greene may be the most over valued Rb this season. Kid has no special elite skills, can't catch, and puts the ball on the ground a tad too much. LT will take away a ton of red zone chances and catch everything out of the backfield. As good as he looked last year in the post season....I truly believe he was the benefactor of really fresh legs going agianst teams that were beat up from a long season. He clearly looked quicker than everyone around him...and he is not a fast player. Let's see 16 games of grinding and how that impacts his numbers. PLus LT is there and ready to show he is not washed up...and that OL is awesome and LT should see some daylight like he has not seen in years.600 yards rushing 4 TD's. 10 receptions 50 yardsBust based on current ADP.
I agree with a lot of the points you make, but I think you are over-doing it a tad. There will be a LOT of carries for Greene this year, even if LT performs better than many expect. The team is going to be a rushing juggernaut, and Greene will benefit from that more than you are giving him credit for I think.
 
How can you go an entire fantasy year and not catch a pass? Even ROY Willaims couldn't accomplish that feat. Brad Hoover sucks and managed to corral 4 catches. Greene ranked tied for 149th (DFL) in RB recpts last year. Something doesn't pass the sniff test here.

Based solely on the Jets o-line dominance, 250 / 1175 / 8 and 10 / 60 / 0

 
How can you go an entire fantasy year and not catch a pass?
Rex Ryan's quote from last year's training camp may shed a little light on that. Something along the line of "I really like this kid. Defenders just bounce right off him, but unfortunately so do passes." :mellow:
 
Interesting. Thomas Jones by all accounts is a good pass catcher but he only caught 10 passes for 58 yards last season. With stats like that, who cares if Greene can't catch.

 
Pat Kirwin of NFLN has Greene as his 9th guy to make a big jump this year.

9. Shonn Greene, New York Jets, RB: The Jets let Thomas Jones go and traded away Leon Washington. LaDainian Tomlinson came on board, but Green is going to be the "bell cow" for a team that ran more than any other in the NFL a year ago. He averaged 5.0 yards a carry as a rookie but did fumble three times in 108 carries

I agree with him. I see Greene as a big punishing back that can easily bull through or drag defenders. I can't see how he has less than 1200 yards on 280 carries. He has a great chance of getting many more carries than that.

315 carries

4.3 ypc

1376 yards

10 TD's

I think the above is going to be very easy for him.

 
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600 yards rushing 4 TD's. 10 receptions 50 yards
So what your saying is Greene will average 37.5 yards per game and if he rushes for 4.0 ypc he'll get around 9 carries per game.The Jets rushed about 38 times per game on average last season, Are you saying you think LT will get about 29 rushes per game? To take your projections seriously here I think you should post what you think all Jets RBs have for rushing stats.I just don't see a line on Greene like9 rush, 37 yards11 rush, 46 yards7 rush, 30 yards, TD9 rush, 37 yards11 rush, 46 yards7 rush, 30 yards9 rush, 37 yards11 rush, 46 yards, TD7 rush, 30 yards9 rush, 37 yards11 rush, 46 yards7 rush, 30 yards, TD9 rush, 37 yards11 rush, 46 yards, TD7 rush, 30 yards9 rush, 37 yardsThis just doesn't pass the sniff test.
 
600 yards rushing 4 TD's. 10 receptions 50 yards
So what your saying is Greene will average 37.5 yards per game and if he rushes for 4.0 ypc he'll get around 9 carries per game.The Jets rushed about 38 times per game on average last season, Are you saying you think LT will get about 29 rushes per game? To take your projections seriously here I think you should post what you think all Jets RBs have for rushing stats.I just don't see a line on Greene like9 rush, 37 yards11 rush, 46 yards7 rush, 30 yards, TD9 rush, 37 yards11 rush, 46 yards7 rush, 30 yards9 rush, 37 yards11 rush, 46 yards, TD7 rush, 30 yards9 rush, 37 yards11 rush, 46 yards7 rush, 30 yards, TD9 rush, 37 yards11 rush, 46 yards, TD7 rush, 30 yards9 rush, 37 yardsThis just doesn't pass the sniff test.
I am really bearish on him...and I may have under estimated his numbers after a further look. But I am of the thought that he will be a major dissapointment, and that LT will get a lot more work than people think. And I can easily see a full blown RBBC with LT2 reaching deep into the well and going for it this season knowing....this is his last chance at a ring. So I am saying LT2 will outperform Greene. Shocking yes.....but this is my biggest bust canidate.
 
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I too view Greene as overvalued at current ADP, and don't figure he'll be on many of my rosters as a result. But I also think that opportunity sets his floor considerably higher than the 600 yards I've seen mentioned in this thread already.

 
I will admit that I'm one that overvalues him.. I would take him over any Rookie right now except maybe Matthews, and its really close.

I expect a lot of carries for his 2nd yr.. about anywhere from 280 to 300; but as high as I am on Greene no way am I expecting anymore than 15 Recs. Between Greene's lack of ability and the fact that the Jets just don't use their RBs in that way. 2008 TJ and Leon had a load of Recs mostly due to Farve.

Some people are complaining about his ADP but I see hes already RB15 which I think is just right for him.

Looking at FBGs rankings I would Pass on Moreno, Turner (age), Charles, Wells, and Mendenhall For sure. I might even pass on guys like SJax and Gore due to their injury history.

I know some of the guys on my list have a higher ceiling but Greene is a sure bet to get plenty of work.

290 Carries / 1200 rushing 15 Recs / 60 yards - 10 TDs

I also think that LT is a one yr play for the Jets.. 2011 will be a much bigger yr for Greene baring any serious injury or poor play.

 
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I really enjoyed the Jets run through the playoffs last year and watched Shonn Greene really shine in the playoffs. I am not a huge Greene fan, but I think that some of the projections are failing to assess the effectiveness of the Jets Offensive Line in 09. They were awesome last year and I expect them to remain very good in 2010. Even though Sanchez should continue to progress and he has added some nice receiving options, this team loves to pound the rock.

07- 446 carries 1601 yds 3.59 ypc 6 TDs with RBs having 381 for 1472 3.9 ypc and 4 TDs

08- 422 carries 2004 yds 4.75 ypc 20 TDs with RBs having 381 for 1833 4.8 ypc and 19 TDs

09- 605 carries 2617 yds 4.33 ypc 21 TDs with RBs having 519 for 2321 4.5 ypc and 16 TDs

New York Jets had 605 rushing attempts in 09 against only 389 passes, an amazing 60.9% rushing. I don't expect that ratio to stay in place, but I doubt that it drops to lower than 55%. Assuming the same number of offensive plays, that would produce 547 rushing attempts, with around 490 or so probably going to the RBs. I just don't see how Shonn Greene doesn't get at least twenty per game. That would still leave 170 to split among LT, McKnight and Richardson.

He did have one reception in the playoffs so maybe he is coming around some with his hands.

Shonn Greene 16 gms 320 carries 1408 yards 4.4 ypc with 25 targets 18 catches 6.0 ypc 108 yards and 10 TDs

 
Going against the grain on this one. I believe Greene may be the most over valued Rb this season. Kid has no special elite skills, can't catch, and puts the ball on the ground a tad too much. LT will take away a ton of red zone chances and catch everything out of the backfield. As good as he looked last year in the post season....I truly believe he was the benefactor of really fresh legs going agianst teams that were beat up from a long season. He clearly looked quicker than everyone around him...and he is not a fast player. Let's see 16 games of grinding and how that impacts his numbers. PLus LT is there and ready to show he is not washed up...and that OL is awesome and LT should see some daylight like he has not seen in years.

600 yards rushing 4 TD's. 10 receptions 50 yards

Bust based on current ADP.
No defenders get beat up that much from previous games played. It is different if you come in fresh in the 4th quarter.

He is hard to figure but I don't see LT getting all the throws and goal line looks. And the Jets really like Greene.

I say 1100 and 5 TDs.

20 receptions 150 and 2 TDs.
You're kidding right? LB's getting beat on and cut by 300 pound lineman for the whole season...then a fresh leg RB comes in with a thick build and he is much harder to tackle.

 
He looked good running the ball last year. I almost wonder if he's too good to be true though and I definately wonder if he'll hold up an entire season. If he does, he should be in for a solid fantasy season.

1100 yards and 9 td's

1 catch for 1 yard

 
I came into this season sky high on Shonn Greene and was taking him as high as 6 in mock drafts. Lately, I've started to consider that he may be frustrating to own this season in the same way that Pierre Thomas was last year. It's probable that Greene will get a little nicked up as the season goes on (like PT), so we'll see if he's tough enough to maintain a full load when he's not as fresh as the end of last year.

LT's not going to take EVERY goal line carry, but he'll get enough to make Greene a liability some weeks. It was so frustrating watching Pierre Thomas look like a stud between the 20's, but give way to Mike Bell for the TDs. He may still end up with strong numbers, but he'll feel like he's under-performing to his owner.

Greene's got realistic upside for 1,200 yards and 12 TDs, but my guess will be:

215 carries, 1,000 rush yards, 4.7 ypc, 8 rush TDs, 9 catches, 60 receiving yards, 1 Receiving TD (that tricky Rex Ryan).

Solid year, but not good enough for a 1st round pick.

 
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I came into this season sky high on Shonn Greene and was taking him as high as 6 in mock drafts. Lately, I've started to consider that he may be frustrating to own this season in the same way that Pierre Thomas was last year. It's probable that Greene will get a little nicked up as the season goes on (like PT), so we'll see if he's tough enough to maintain a full load when he's not as fresh as the end of last year.LT's not going to take EVERY goal line carry, but he'll get enough to make Greene a liability some weeks. It was so frustrating watching Pierre Thomas look like a stud between the 20's, but give way to Mike Bell for the TDs. He may still end up with strong numbers, but he'll feel like he's under-performing to his owner.Greene's got realistic upside for 1,200 yards and 12 TDs, but my guess will be:215 carries, 1,000 rush yards, 4.7 ypc, 8 rush TDs, 9 catches, 60 receiving yards, 1 Receiving TD (that tricky Rex Ryan). Solid year, but not good enough for a 1st round pick.
Not trying to be "that guy", but since its been pointed out that the Jets would probably rush 475 to 500 times for the RB's this year, do you really think LT will get MORE carries than Greene? Or remembering that Greene will get many more carries than 215 would you adjust your prediction?I just think without you backing up such a lowball estimate at his carries by explaining where the other carries will go, it makes it seem like you just thought to yourself "he seems like a thousand yard guy to me" and posted that without actually thinking about it....
 
I like what I've seen out of Greene, but to me, the answer to this question really comes down to the effectiveness--or lack thereof--of LaDainian Tomlinson. In the 6 games Leon Washington was available in 2009, he had 71 carries and 15 receptions, while Thomas Jones had 96 carries and 4 catches. This resulted in 4 very unimpressive games for Thomas Jones from weeks 2-5. It's a limited sample size, but seeing those numbers and watching some of those games, it suggests that Rex Ryan may be after a solid split between two backs when he has two healthy backs he trusts (Greene was still an untested rookie at that point, and I don't think Greene 2009 had the built-in cred that Tomlinson 2010 will). How much will that leave for Greene?

I like rzrback's projection of just south of 500 RB carries. I think, in an ideal scenario, Tomlinson would deliver this team 150-200 carries, and 25-30 receptions. I'm a believer in both Greene and the offensive line, but think he may be capped at around 260-270 rushes in 2010. Given his considerable talents, that will still be enough for a very good season and fringe RB1 numbers in standard scoring, but perhaps not the bellcow breakout worthy of the 13th overall pick for which he's currently slotted, especially in PPR leagues.

262 carries, 1205 yards rushing, 4.6 ypc, 9 TDs; 7 catches, 41 yards.

(For kicks: Tomlinson with 181 carries, 724 yards, 4.0 ypcs, 6 TDs; 28 receptions, 201 yards, 1 TD)

 
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270 x 4.1 = 1107 and 12 TDs. Minimal receiving yards, something like 95

He's faster than his 40 time and seems to be able to read the line well enough but has no moves and I wonder if his success had more to do with his line than him. Some of those holes were huge. His situation is good but his potential is likely married to that. Not special.

 
I think if you draft him you'll probably be disapointed considering his draft position. Plus I think the Jets will throw about 10-15 percent more considering the new wr core and a year under Sanchez's belt. 1150 Yards and 6td's.

 
I am really high on Shonn Greene for these reasons:

1. Extraordinary number of rushes as a team. This is a running team that likes to control the clock and will grind out the second half of games that they have 10 point leads in. They are not a go for the jugular team yet. They will rely on the ground game and dare the defense to stop it.

2. Shonn Greene demonstrated his ability late in the year and into the playoffs, and though he's not an elite runner yet, imagine where his stats will go if he can get the yards that Thomas Jones left from last year.

3. LT is washed up, and done. I don't see him getting 500 yards this year. Whether it's injury or ineffectiveness. He runs like Betty White.

4. Rookie RB Joe McKnight just isn't very good. I don't see him having an impact unless injuries pile up. He is still IMO the handcuff to own (cheap) for Greene.

330/1600/11 with 15/98/1 and all around uberstud.

 
I am really high on Shonn Greene for these reasons:

1. Extraordinary number of rushes as a team. This is a running team that likes to control the clock and will grind out the second half of games that they have 10 point leads in. They are not a go for the jugular team yet. They will rely on the ground game and dare the defense to stop it.

2. Shonn Greene demonstrated his ability late in the year and into the playoffs, and though he's not an elite runner yet, imagine where his stats will go if he can get the yards that Thomas Jones left from last year.

3. LT is washed up, and done. I don't see him getting 500 yards this year. Whether it's injury or ineffectiveness. He runs like Betty White.

4. Rookie RB Joe McKnight just isn't very good. I don't see him having an impact unless injuries pile up. He is still IMO the handcuff to own (cheap) for Greene.

330/1600/11 with 15/98/1 and all around uberstud.
"Thats not what your girlfriend said"1243/11 tds for Mr. Greene

 
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Going against the grain on this one. I believe Greene may be the most over valued Rb this season. Kid has no special elite skills, can't catch, and puts the ball on the ground a tad too much. LT will take away a ton of red zone chances and catch everything out of the backfield. As good as he looked last year in the post season....I truly believe he was the benefactor of really fresh legs going agianst teams that were beat up from a long season. He clearly looked quicker than everyone around him...and he is not a fast player. Let's see 16 games of grinding and how that impacts his numbers. PLus LT is there and ready to show he is not washed up...and that OL is awesome and LT should see some daylight like he has not seen in years.

600 yards rushing 4 TD's. 10 receptions 50 yards

Bust based on current ADP.
Lt had all last season to show he was not washed up,how'd that work for him?Jets don't let TJ and Washington leave town if they didn't feel they had their bell cow RB in Greene..

Jets ran the ball 420 times last season..your projection of 600 yards doesn't work..if Greene gets the Jets 2009 avg of 3.8 ypc, that'll be just 157 carries for him.. that leaves a whopping 263 carries for LT2??? c'mon now.. what you're saying is a

beaten down, old RB with way too many carries on his HOF body will outlast,outduel Greene for the RB1 spot on the Jets?

that is not going to happen..

LT2 brings nothing to the table other than a great set of hands...he's too old,too slow, too worn down to be an effective RB anymore..

Jets have the best O-line in football, although it remains to be seen what happens now that Faneca is gone..

either way, Greene gets the bulk of the carries, somewhere between 310-325

325/1462/10td..

receptions are hard to predict with LT2 in town.

this guy has the frame to handle a heavy workload..

if those #'s look high, consider that TJ rushed 331 times last season,and 290 times in 2008..this offensive coaching staff doesn't use RBBC , the let one guy tote the rock and use him extensively..

honestly, I have no idea why the Jets signed LT2, he's finished, like Eddie George was during the final years of his NFL career..

 
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Going against the grain on this one. I believe Greene may be the most over valued Rb this season. Kid has no special elite skills, can't catch, and puts the ball on the ground a tad too much. LT will take away a ton of red zone chances and catch everything out of the backfield. As good as he looked last year in the post season....I truly believe he was the benefactor of really fresh legs going agianst teams that were beat up from a long season. He clearly looked quicker than everyone around him...and he is not a fast player. Let's see 16 games of grinding and how that impacts his numbers. PLus LT is there and ready to show he is not washed up...and that OL is awesome and LT should see some daylight like he has not seen in years.

600 yards rushing 4 TD's. 10 receptions 50 yards

Bust based on current ADP.
Lt had all last season to show he was not washed up,how'd that work for him?Jets don't let TJ and Washington leave town if they didn't feel they had their bell cow RB in Greene..

Jets ran the ball 420 times last season..your projection of 600 yards doesn't work..if Greene gets the Jets 2009 avg of 3.8 ypc, that'll be just 157 carries for him.. that leaves a whopping 263 carries for LT2??? c'mon now.. what you're saying is a

beaten down, old RB with way too many carries on his HOF body will outlast,outduel Greene for the RB1 spot on the Jets?

that is not going to happen..

LT2 brings nothing to the table other than a great set of hands...he's too old,too slow, too worn down to be an effective RB anymore..

Jets have the best O-line in football, although it remains to be seen what happens now that Faneca is gone..

either way, Greene gets the bulk of the carries, somewhere between 310-325

325/1462/10td..

receptions are hard to predict with LT2 in town.

this guy has the frame to handle a heavy workload..

if those #'s look high, consider that TJ rushed 331 times last season,and 290 times in 2008..this offensive coaching staff doesn't use RBBC , the let one guy tote the rock and use him extensively..

honestly, I have no idea why the Jets signed LT2, he's finished, like Eddie George was during the final years of his NFL career..
After further thought...I was being really unrealistic.....so updated projections:

875 Yards Rushing.

Again I am really alone on this island....but I am not a believer that Greene is anything special at all. And am in the minority that LT2 has a bigger impact than anyone expects.

 
3. LT is washed up, and done. I don't see him getting 500 yards this year. Whether it's injury or ineffectiveness. He runs like Betty White.
I'm high on Greene, but rumor is that LT is out to prove everybody wrong because thats all he keeps hearing.
Seriously LOL if you think LT is going to take anything away from Greene. LT may say he is going to prove everyone wrong but his legs say differently. I have watched him extensively (as most of you probably) the past 3 years and trust me, LT is done. Sad to say but it is the truth. He skills have declined dramatically and will be nothing more then a guy that gets a few carries a game to spell Greene.Greene is in a great postition to excel based on the upgrades on offense for the Jets, the line and the willingness of Ryan to run the ball. I think he gets 1300/yds easy and 8-10 td's. To me that is his floor.
 
Going against the grain on this one. I believe Greene may be the most over valued Rb this season. Kid has no special elite skills, can't catch, and puts the ball on the ground a tad too much. LT will take away a ton of red zone chances and catch everything out of the backfield. As good as he looked last year in the post season....I truly believe he was the benefactor of really fresh legs going agianst teams that were beat up from a long season. He clearly looked quicker than everyone around him...and he is not a fast player. Let's see 16 games of grinding and how that impacts his numbers. PLus LT is there and ready to show he is not washed up...and that OL is awesome and LT should see some daylight like he has not seen in years.

600 yards rushing 4 TD's. 10 receptions 50 yards

Bust based on current ADP.
Lt had all last season to show he was not washed up,how'd that work for him?Jets don't let TJ and Washington leave town if they didn't feel they had their bell cow RB in Greene..

Jets ran the ball 420 times last season..your projection of 600 yards doesn't work..if Greene gets the Jets 2009 avg of 3.8 ypc, that'll be just 157 carries for him.. that leaves a whopping 263 carries for LT2??? c'mon now.. what you're saying is a

beaten down, old RB with way too many carries on his HOF body will outlast,outduel Greene for the RB1 spot on the Jets?

that is not going to happen..

LT2 brings nothing to the table other than a great set of hands...he's too old,too slow, too worn down to be an effective RB anymore..

Jets have the best O-line in football, although it remains to be seen what happens now that Faneca is gone..

either way, Greene gets the bulk of the carries, somewhere between 310-325

325/1462/10td..

receptions are hard to predict with LT2 in town.

this guy has the frame to handle a heavy workload..

if those #'s look high, consider that TJ rushed 331 times last season,and 290 times in 2008..this offensive coaching staff doesn't use RBBC , the let one guy tote the rock and use him extensively..

honestly, I have no idea why the Jets signed LT2, he's finished, like Eddie George was during the final years of his NFL career..
After further thought...I was being really unrealistic.....so updated projections:

875 Yards Rushing.

Again I am really alone on this island....but I am not a believer that Greene is anything special at all. And am in the minority that LT2 has a bigger impact than anyone expects.
875 yards on how many carries? I hate it when someone makes a lowball estimate without backing it up at all... If the Jets rush 450 times for the main ball carriers how many carries does Greene get and how many do LT get? I think once you put down here you will see that you may be down on Greene for no real reason... Because, unless you think LT is going to get 13 or more carries a game and not be injured this year at all, I don't see how you can lowball Greene that much.
 
Thats my logic as well. With 400 + carries you know Greene will get the bulk of them and he showed last year he can produce when given the chance. I see LT getting no more than 100 carries. That is the up most ceiling for him. People are really putting too much stock in the LT factor.

Edit to say I think Greene gets roughly 270-300 carries.

 
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I like Shonn Greene this year. Run first team, great OL, Sanchez has more weapons at WR-TE so defenses can't just put 8 in the box. Question will be how much does Tomlinson get in the pie. I can't imagine Tomlinson getting a ton of carries.....I don't think he's that effective anymore. But NYJ will still be a run first team and will probably carry the ball about 30 times a game, so there's no reason why Greene can't get 300 carries. His value does take a slight hit in PPR leagues since it's possible that Tomlinson will be the 3rd down back.

300 car, 1350 yds rushing, 10 TD

20 rec, 175 yds rec, 1 TD

If Sanchez can effectively manage the game and limit the turnovers, the sky is the limit for Greene.

 
Going against the grain on this one. I believe Greene may be the most over valued Rb this season. Kid has no special elite skills, can't catch, and puts the ball on the ground a tad too much. LT will take away a ton of red zone chances and catch everything out of the backfield. As good as he looked last year in the post season....I truly believe he was the benefactor of really fresh legs going agianst teams that were beat up from a long season. He clearly looked quicker than everyone around him...and he is not a fast player. Let's see 16 games of grinding and how that impacts his numbers. PLus LT is there and ready to show he is not washed up...and that OL is awesome and LT should see some daylight like he has not seen in years.

600 yards rushing 4 TD's. 10 receptions 50 yards

Bust based on current ADP.
Lt had all last season to show he was not washed up,how'd that work for him?Jets don't let TJ and Washington leave town if they didn't feel they had their bell cow RB in Greene..

Jets ran the ball 420 times last season..your projection of 600 yards doesn't work..if Greene gets the Jets 2009 avg of 3.8 ypc, that'll be just 157 carries for him.. that leaves a whopping 263 carries for LT2??? c'mon now.. what you're saying is a

beaten down, old RB with way too many carries on his HOF body will outlast,outduel Greene for the RB1 spot on the Jets?

that is not going to happen..

LT2 brings nothing to the table other than a great set of hands...he's too old,too slow, too worn down to be an effective RB anymore..

Jets have the best O-line in football, although it remains to be seen what happens now that Faneca is gone..

either way, Greene gets the bulk of the carries, somewhere between 310-325

325/1462/10td..

receptions are hard to predict with LT2 in town.

this guy has the frame to handle a heavy workload..

if those #'s look high, consider that TJ rushed 331 times last season,and 290 times in 2008..this offensive coaching staff doesn't use RBBC , the let one guy tote the rock and use him extensively..

honestly, I have no idea why the Jets signed LT2, he's finished, like Eddie George was during the final years of his NFL career..
After further thought...I was being really unrealistic.....so updated projections:

875 Yards Rushing.

Again I am really alone on this island....but I am not a believer that Greene is anything special at all. And am in the minority that LT2 has a bigger impact than anyone expects.
875 yards on how many carries? I hate it when someone makes a lowball estimate without backing it up at all... If the Jets rush 450 times for the main ball carriers how many carries does Greene get and how many do LT get? I think once you put down here you will see that you may be down on Greene for no real reason... Because, unless you think LT is going to get 13 or more carries a game and not be injured this year at all, I don't see how you can lowball Greene that much.
People like to go with their guts which is fine but its nice if they can back it up with some logic. If people think Greene is subpar that's fine but he should have ample opportunities for carries and if he has even a modest YPC he should have a relatively low floor. To me the concern is health and whether he can shoulder the load of a full season.
 
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Going against the grain on this one. I believe Greene may be the most over valued Rb this season. Kid has no special elite skills, can't catch, and puts the ball on the ground a tad too much. LT will take away a ton of red zone chances and catch everything out of the backfield. As good as he looked last year in the post season....I truly believe he was the benefactor of really fresh legs going agianst teams that were beat up from a long season. He clearly looked quicker than everyone around him...and he is not a fast player. Let's see 16 games of grinding and how that impacts his numbers. PLus LT is there and ready to show he is not washed up...and that OL is awesome and LT should see some daylight like he has not seen in years.

600 yards rushing 4 TD's. 10 receptions 50 yards

Bust based on current ADP.
Lt had all last season to show he was not washed up,how'd that work for him?Jets don't let TJ and Washington leave town if they didn't feel they had their bell cow RB in Greene..

Jets ran the ball 420 times last season..your projection of 600 yards doesn't work..if Greene gets the Jets 2009 avg of 3.8 ypc, that'll be just 157 carries for him.. that leaves a whopping 263 carries for LT2??? c'mon now.. what you're saying is a

beaten down, old RB with way too many carries on his HOF body will outlast,outduel Greene for the RB1 spot on the Jets?

that is not going to happen..

LT2 brings nothing to the table other than a great set of hands...he's too old,too slow, too worn down to be an effective RB anymore..

Jets have the best O-line in football, although it remains to be seen what happens now that Faneca is gone..

either way, Greene gets the bulk of the carries, somewhere between 310-325

325/1462/10td..

receptions are hard to predict with LT2 in town.

this guy has the frame to handle a heavy workload..

if those #'s look high, consider that TJ rushed 331 times last season,and 290 times in 2008..this offensive coaching staff doesn't use RBBC , the let one guy tote the rock and use him extensively..

honestly, I have no idea why the Jets signed LT2, he's finished, like Eddie George was during the final years of his NFL career..
After further thought...I was being really unrealistic.....so updated projections:

875 Yards Rushing.

Again I am really alone on this island....but I am not a believer that Greene is anything special at all. And am in the minority that LT2 has a bigger impact than anyone expects.
875 yards on how many carries? I hate it when someone makes a lowball estimate without backing it up at all... If the Jets rush 450 times for the main ball carriers how many carries does Greene get and how many do LT get? I think once you put down here you will see that you may be down on Greene for no real reason... Because, unless you think LT is going to get 13 or more carries a game and not be injured this year at all, I don't see how you can lowball Greene that much.
People like to go with their guts which is fine but its nice if they can back it up with some logic. If people think Greene is subpar that's fine but he should have ample opportunities for carries and if he has even a modest YPC he should have a relatively low floor. To me the concern is health and whether he can shoulder the load of a full season.
225 Carries 3.5 YPC.

I see LT getting 150 - 175 Carries.

I think teams are going to force the Jets prove they can pass the ball. They will stack the box and dare Sanchez to beat them. Greene IMO is a avergae talent who will not be durable IMO. I saw him quit on his team in the AFC title game.....he had a rib injury and never got back on the field. I know rib injuries are very painful....but the title game? I watched Emmitt Smith play with a dislocated shoudler agianst the Ginats in a playoff game....I question Greenes toughness to be a bell cow I also question his ability to hold onto the ball. And he is useless in the passing game...and I understand the Jets did not utilize their backs...but they brought in LT to play not to be just giving Greene breathers. I watched LT last year...and yes he did not look that good....but his OL was putrid...downright awful in the run blocking department. I dare to say even a beat up LT2 has more talent than a young Shonne Greene.

Again...I am in just a small minority...but my gut and my eyes tell me Greene will fail this year....and in fact I think the Jets will be the biggest flop in the NFL as far as contenders...they will not sniff the title game this year.

 
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225 Carries 3.5 YPC.I see LT getting 150 - 175 Carries.I think teams are going to force the Jets prove they can pass the ball. They will stack the box and dare Sanchez to beat them. Greene IMO is a avergae talent who will not be durable IMO. I saw him quit on his team in the AFC title game.....he had a rib injury and never got back on the field. I know rib injuries are very painful....but the title game? I watched Emmitt Smith play with a dislocated shoudler agianst the Ginats in a playoff game....I question Greenes toughness to be a bell cow I also question his ability to hold onto the ball. And he is useless in the passing game...and I understand the Jets did not utilize their backs...but they brought in LT to play not to be just giving Greene breathers. I watched LT last year...and yes he did not look that good....but his OL was putrid...downright awful in the run blocking department. I dare to say even a beat up LT2 has more talent than a young Shonne Greene.Again...I am in just a small minority...but my gut and my eyes tell me Greene will fail this year....and in fact I think the Jets will be the biggest flop in the NFL as far as contenders...they will not sniff the title game this year.
Strange that Matthews situation is regarded as so wonderful but you lay all of LT's shortcomings at the feet of the OL and team....
 
Greene has the best O-line to work with in football, is the epitome of what you want in a grind it out workhorse back, the stars are aligned for this second year player. Big play has transitioned to the NFL more than I had thought at this time last year, this is a guy who I want on my team and should be considered in the elite tier when this time of year rolls around next year. I believe the move of shipping out TJ and bringing in LT is what propels Greene to elite fantasy football status.

330/1490/15TD and 10/80/1TD

 
Todem said:
I saw him quit on his team in the AFC title game.....he had a rib injury and never got back on the field. I know rib injuries are very painful....but the title game?
Do we know that it was Greene's decision to not come back on the field? It's not like the Jets didn't have another good option at RB.
Todem said:
I watched Emmitt Smith play with a dislocated shoudler agianst the Ginats in a playoff game....
Just for accuracy's sake, that wasn't a playoff game. It was the last game of the season to determine 1st in the NFC East and a playoff bye. Emmitt never played the Giants in the playoffs.I know you give other reasons, too, but "he's not Emmitt" isn't a very good reason to knock a 1.5-2 yards/carry off someone's average in any given year, IMO.
 
This conversation has a Ray Rice 2009 feel to it.
How so? Ray Rice is younger faster and catches the ball. I believe it has a Ron Dayne feel to it, and I believe Green is much much closer to Dayne than Rice.
I am saying last year that some were really high on Rice based on limited playing time and some people were really down on him. Just like Greene.On a side note there is nothing comparable at all to Dayne and Greene. Except maybe that they both played in NY.
 
225 Carries 3.5 YPC.I see LT getting 150 - 175 Carries.I think teams are going to force the Jets prove they can pass the ball. They will stack the box and dare Sanchez to beat them. Greene IMO is a avergae talent who will not be durable IMO. I saw him quit on his team in the AFC title game.....he had a rib injury and never got back on the field. I know rib injuries are very painful....but the title game? I watched Emmitt Smith play with a dislocated shoudler agianst the Ginats in a playoff game....I question Greenes toughness to be a bell cow I also question his ability to hold onto the ball. And he is useless in the passing game...and I understand the Jets did not utilize their backs...but they brought in LT to play not to be just giving Greene breathers. I watched LT last year...and yes he did not look that good....but his OL was putrid...downright awful in the run blocking department. I dare to say even a beat up LT2 has more talent than a young Shonne Greene.Again...I am in just a small minority...but my gut and my eyes tell me Greene will fail this year....and in fact I think the Jets will be the biggest flop in the NFL as far as contenders...they will not sniff the title game this year.
Strange that Matthews situation is regarded as so wonderful but you lay all of LT's shortcomings at the feet of the OL and team....
Oh I don't think Matthews situation is all roses...he will have a tough time finding running room if that OL has no improvment from last season.The Jet's OL is so good Greene will probably get 1000 yards just becuase the holes will be huge....but i think the Jets will not sneak up on anyone this season and everyone knows slow down or shut down the run and let the 2nd year guy beat you. I have my doubts Sanchez can carry a team at this point. Lukewarm on Greene......I am low balling his numbers probably...but my feelings about him remain the same...overvalued, over hyped and owners will be in for a big letdown this season.I just do not se the talent to make him a big time Runner like so many project. yes his line and situation look great....but I have seen many other runners in the past with the same setup...fall flat on there face.
 
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Greene has the best O-line to work with in football, is the epitome of what you want in a grind it out workhorse back, the stars are aligned for this second year player. Big play has transitioned to the NFL more than I had thought at this time last year, this is a guy who I want on my team and should be considered in the elite tier when this time of year rolls around next year. I believe the move of shipping out TJ and bringing in LT is what propels Greene to elite fantasy football status.330/1490/15TD and 10/80/1TD
This is exactly why I am staying far away. Too good to be true for a guy with average skills at the RB position IMO. If I am wrong...whatever...not the first time...but i trust my instincts and they say....stay away.
 
Todem said:
225 Carries 3.5 YPC.I see LT getting 150 - 175 Carries.I think teams are going to force the Jets prove they can pass the ball. They will stack the box and dare Sanchez to beat them. Greene IMO is a avergae talent who will not be durable IMO. I saw him quit on his team in the AFC title game.....he had a rib injury and never got back on the field. I know rib injuries are very painful....but the title game? I watched Emmitt Smith play with a dislocated shoudler agianst the Ginats in a playoff game....I question Greenes toughness to be a bell cow I also question his ability to hold onto the ball. And he is useless in the passing game...and I understand the Jets did not utilize their backs...but they brought in LT to play not to be just giving Greene breathers. I watched LT last year...and yes he did not look that good....but his OL was putrid...downright awful in the run blocking department. I dare to say even a beat up LT2 has more talent than a young Shonne Greene.Again...I am in just a small minority...but my gut and my eyes tell me Greene will fail this year....and in fact I think the Jets will be the biggest flop in the NFL as far as contenders...they will not sniff the title game this year.
Do I sniff a little bias in all of this :thumbup:Those carries have to include an injury. He's going to get much closer to 300 carries.Hey, I said all offseason I think Greene was overvalued. Personally I like my fantasy backs to catch the ball. But, at some point Greene has value - He is running behind an OL that I don't think will lose a step. Ducasse who they drafted looks to be Grater for the run game, if there is any loss here it might be in pass protection which BTW Faneca graded out to be pretty below average last year.You just want to bury him. Yeah, he quit in the playoff game - He couldn't breathe but, whatever.As for the Jets - They played against a stacked box last year, if anything - with Braylon here for an offseason and looking great in camp, with Holmes eventually on board and Sanchez in year 2, I'd think that might loosen it up a little - It actually did last year as soon as Braylon came on board. If you look at the Jets stats and how they peaked at the end of the season, I think you have to give Braylon a little more credit than most give - Jets WR are all great blockers as well.We'll see, If they do falter, I think it will be due to injuries. Imo. most teams that go far need to stay relatively healthy and that's always a crapshoot in the NFL.
 
225 Carries 3.5 YPC.I see LT getting 150 - 175 Carries.I think teams are going to force the Jets prove they can pass the ball. They will stack the box and dare Sanchez to beat them. Greene IMO is a avergae talent who will not be durable IMO. I saw him quit on his team in the AFC title game.....he had a rib injury and never got back on the field. I know rib injuries are very painful....but the title game? I watched Emmitt Smith play with a dislocated shoudler agianst the Ginats in a playoff game....I question Greenes toughness to be a bell cow I also question his ability to hold onto the ball. And he is useless in the passing game...and I understand the Jets did not utilize their backs...but they brought in LT to play not to be just giving Greene breathers. I watched LT last year...and yes he did not look that good....but his OL was putrid...downright awful in the run blocking department. I dare to say even a beat up LT2 has more talent than a young Shonne Greene.Again...I am in just a small minority...but my gut and my eyes tell me Greene will fail this year....and in fact I think the Jets will be the biggest flop in the NFL as far as contenders...they will not sniff the title game this year.
Strange that Matthews situation is regarded as so wonderful but you lay all of LT's shortcomings at the feet of the OL and team....
Oh I don't think Matthews situation is all roses...he will have a tough time finding running room if that OL has no improvment from last season.The Jet's OL is so good Greene will probably get 1000 yards just becuase the holes will be huge....but i think the Jets will not sneak up on anyone this season and everyone knows slow down or shut down the run and let the 2nd year guy beat you. I have my doubts Sanchez can carry a team at this point. Lukewarm on Greene......I am low balling his numbers probably...but my feelings about him remain the same...overvalued, over hyped and owners will be in for a big letdown this season.I just do not se the talent to make him a big time Runner like so many project. yes his line and situation look great....but I have seen many other runners in the past with the same setup...fall flat on there face.
Now he's going to trip his way to 1,000 yards???????????????????? I kinda like the guy who can get 1,000 yards blindfolded through huge holes.The Jets snuck up on people?????????????????? With the loudest coach in sports??????You just Hate the Jets and that's that.....The reason I really started liking this place was that I found a lot of people that left bias aside and analyzed players on their own merit, not you.I like you in the Rush threads though :shrug:
 
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This conversation has a Ray Rice 2009 feel to it.
Or William Green. Or Anthony Thomas. Or Steve Slaton. Or Kevin Jones. Or Antowain Smith. Or Willis McGahee. Or Marcell Shipp (that one was classic). Or...Point is, these "Man that guy was awesome in the 2nd half of his rookie season" routines can go either way. I'd be excited about the guy's prospects if I owned him in any leagues, but you just never really know. Was it the line, or was it him? Was it both?I think he is rated right around where he should be personally. He has a lot of upside in that offense, but some risk as well (LT).
 
225 Carries 3.5 YPC.I see LT getting 150 - 175 Carries.I think teams are going to force the Jets prove they can pass the ball. They will stack the box and dare Sanchez to beat them. Greene IMO is a avergae talent who will not be durable IMO. I saw him quit on his team in the AFC title game.....he had a rib injury and never got back on the field. I know rib injuries are very painful....but the title game? I watched Emmitt Smith play with a dislocated shoudler agianst the Ginats in a playoff game....I question Greenes toughness to be a bell cow I also question his ability to hold onto the ball. And he is useless in the passing game...and I understand the Jets did not utilize their backs...but they brought in LT to play not to be just giving Greene breathers. I watched LT last year...and yes he did not look that good....but his OL was putrid...downright awful in the run blocking department. I dare to say even a beat up LT2 has more talent than a young Shonne Greene.Again...I am in just a small minority...but my gut and my eyes tell me Greene will fail this year....and in fact I think the Jets will be the biggest flop in the NFL as far as contenders...they will not sniff the title game this year.
Strange that Matthews situation is regarded as so wonderful but you lay all of LT's shortcomings at the feet of the OL and team....
Oh I don't think Matthews situation is all roses...he will have a tough time finding running room if that OL has no improvment from last season.The Jet's OL is so good Greene will probably get 1000 yards just becuase the holes will be huge....but i think the Jets will not sneak up on anyone this season and everyone knows slow down or shut down the run and let the 2nd year guy beat you. I have my doubts Sanchez can carry a team at this point. Lukewarm on Greene......I am low balling his numbers probably...but my feelings about him remain the same...overvalued, over hyped and owners will be in for a big letdown this season.I just do not se the talent to make him a big time Runner like so many project. yes his line and situation look great....but I have seen many other runners in the past with the same setup...fall flat on there face.
Now he's going to trip his way to 1,000 yards???????????????????? I kinda like the guy who can get 1,000 yards blindfolded through huge holes.The Jets snuck up on people?????????????????? With the loudest coach in sports??????You just Hate the Jets and that's that.....The reason I really started liking this place was that I found a lot of people that left bias aside and analyzed players on their own merit, not you.I like you in the Rush threads though :wall:
LMAO you got me!!!
 
I also believe that Greene is highly overrated and anyone expecting 300 carries for Greene is going to be in for a shock.

Projecting about 500 carries for the Jets with Green getting a slight majority of them (245 for Green, 190 for LT and 65 for others).

245 - 1150 - 7 with 5 - 30 - 0 receiving

 
When you say overrated I am assuming you are going by his ADP. What is it right now? I havent check with any of the sites but I think he would be overrated if he was going in the 2nd, about right in the 3rd and true bargain from the 4rth on.

 
When you say overrated I am assuming you are going by his ADP. What is it right now? I havent check with any of the sites but I think he would be overrated if he was going in the 2nd, about right in the 3rd and true bargain from the 4rth on.
At FFC, Greene's ADP is 2.01/13th overall. He's the 9th RB coming off the board. For drafts closer to the season, his ADP will probably be based heavily on how the Jets look on Hard Knocks.
 
When you say overrated I am assuming you are going by his ADP. What is it right now? I havent check with any of the sites but I think he would be overrated if he was going in the 2nd, about right in the 3rd and true bargain from the 4rth on.
At FFC, Greene's ADP is 2.01/13th overall. He's the 9th RB coming off the board. For drafts closer to the season, his ADP will probably be based heavily on how the Jets look on Hard Knocks.
yeah thats a touch high
 
Thomas Jones was very avg last year and behind that Oline he had 347 carries 1,436 yds and 15 TDs - how anyone can project crap numbers for Greene who is younger and faster is beyond me -

I predict 300 carries 1,200 yds and 12 TDs - few less carries to account for LT and a nagging injury or 2 during the year.

 

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