Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit Lions (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood · Jun 1, 2010

2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit Lions

Player Page Link: Calvin Johnson Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

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[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

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... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

benson_will_lead_the_way · Jun 1, 2010

73/1131/8

Anthony Borbely · Jun 1, 2010

This will be the first time in Calvin's 4 seasons that he will be playing with the same QB and also the first time he will have the same offensive coordinator. That is an important difference that has not gotten much attention. This is the first time there will be continuity with the play calling.

Last year, Calvin was the only weapon the Lions had and opposing defenses could put a safety and/or a LB in his area of the field whenever they wanted to, knowing that the other Lion receivers could not make them pay. With Stafford having a year under his belt, new weapons on the team such as Burleson, Scheffler, and Best, defenses will not be able to double Calvin as much as last year. The addition of Best should keep the LBs from dropping into zones as often as they did, which will open up the middle of the field.

The Lions should be tons better offensively and I see no reason why he won't match his year 2 numbers.

80 receptions, 1310 yards, 10 TDs

7 rushes, 80 yards, 1 TD

Ministry of Pain · Jun 1, 2010

Calvin will return to greatness this year. Offense has more pieces and I expect Stafford to make advances in his 2nd season.

88 receptions 1350 yds, 12 Tds

And I think he is capable of much more. He is a candidate IMO to have one of these 100, 1850yds, 20 Tds...yes he can be that big of a threat. He's a monster to cover, a man amongst boys, go take that Dez Bryant prize you got in the sweepstakes and do everything you can to trade for Calvin while his value is slightly in the toilet. He has the tools to break single season records, he's that good.

benson_will_lead_the_way · Jun 1, 2010

Ministry of Pain said:
Calvin will return to greatness this year. Offense has mroe pieces and I expect Stafford to make advances in his 2nd season.

88 receptions 1350 yds, 12 Tds

And I think he is capable of much more. He is a candidate IMO to have one of these 100, 1850yds, 20 Tds...yes he can be that big of a threat. He's a monster to cover, a man amongst boys, go take that Dez Bryant prize you got in the sweepstakes and do everything you can to trade for Calvin while his value is slightly in the toilet. He has the tools to break single season records, he's that good.

here we go with the hype trainI went and looked at Andre Johnson, Randy Moss, and Jerry Rice's best career seasons. The closest to those #'s

Jerry Rice 1995- 122, 1848, 18 td.

That is the greatest WR to ever play the game's best season....and Calvin is going to top that? When he has Calvin ever caught 80 passes in a year?

RoyDubb · Jun 1, 2010

benson_will_lead_the_way said:
Ministry of Pain said:

Calvin will return to greatness this year. Offense has mroe pieces and I expect Stafford to make advances in his 2nd season.

88 receptions 1350 yds, 12 Tds

And I think he is capable of much more. He is a candidate IMO to have one of these 100, 1850yds, 20 Tds...yes he can be that big of a threat. He's a monster to cover, a man amongst boys, go take that Dez Bryant prize you got in the sweepstakes and do everything you can to trade for Calvin while his value is slightly in the toilet. He has the tools to break single season records, he's that good.

Click to expand...

here we go with the hype trainI went and looked at Andre Johnson, Randy Moss, and Jerry Rice's best career seasons. The closest to those #'s

Jerry Rice 1995- 122, 1848, 18 td.

That is the greatest WR to ever play the game's best season....and Calvin is going to top that? When he has Calvin ever caught 80 passes in a year?

I'm glad the hype train is not full...

benson_will_lead_the_way · Jun 1, 2010

RoyDubb said:
benson_will_lead_the_way said:

Ministry of Pain said:

Calvin will return to greatness this year. Offense has mroe pieces and I expect Stafford to make advances in his 2nd season.

88 receptions 1350 yds, 12 Tds

And I think he is capable of much more. He is a candidate IMO to have one of these 100, 1850yds, 20 Tds...yes he can be that big of a threat. He's a monster to cover, a man amongst boys, go take that Dez Bryant prize you got in the sweepstakes and do everything you can to trade for Calvin while his value is slightly in the toilet. He has the tools to break single season records, he's that good.

Click to expand...

here we go with the hype trainI went and looked at Andre Johnson, Randy Moss, and Jerry Rice's best career seasons. The closest to those #'s

Jerry Rice 1995- 122, 1848, 18 td.

That is the greatest WR to ever play the game's best season....and Calvin is going to top that? When he has Calvin ever caught 80 passes in a year?

Click to expand...

I'm glad the hype train is not full...

Was happy last year too :shrug:

morehouse_slim · Jun 1, 2010

benson_will_lead_the_way said:
Ministry of Pain said:

Calvin will return to greatness this year. Offense has mroe pieces and I expect Stafford to make advances in his 2nd season.

88 receptions 1350 yds, 12 Tds

And I think he is capable of much more. He is a candidate IMO to have one of these 100, 1850yds, 20 Tds...yes he can be that big of a threat. He's a monster to cover, a man amongst boys, go take that Dez Bryant prize you got in the sweepstakes and do everything you can to trade for Calvin while his value is slightly in the toilet. He has the tools to break single season records, he's that good.

Click to expand...

here we go with the hype trainI went and looked at Andre Johnson, Randy Moss, and Jerry Rice's best career seasons. The closest to those #'s

Jerry Rice 1995- 122, 1848, 18 td.

That is the greatest WR to ever play the game's best season....and Calvin is going to top that? When he has Calvin ever caught 80 passes in a year?

I believe he caught 78 in his second year in the league. And that is with 6 games or so of 4 catches or less.I haven't done my projections yet but I think people are very high on the Detroit offense in general. They have Stafford returning, Calvin and Burleson on the outside with Best opening things up underneath. It is not hard to think they could have something there for fantasy purposes. Especially if the defense struggles. One would think that Calvin would be the main beneficiary of the offensive production. He has shown to be productive with less around him.

RoyDubb · Jun 1, 2010

benson_will_lead_the_way said:
RoyDubb said:

benson_will_lead_the_way said:

Ministry of Pain said:

Calvin will return to greatness this year. Offense has mroe pieces and I expect Stafford to make advances in his 2nd season.

88 receptions 1350 yds, 12 Tds

And I think he is capable of much more. He is a candidate IMO to have one of these 100, 1850yds, 20 Tds...yes he can be that big of a threat. He's a monster to cover, a man amongst boys, go take that Dez Bryant prize you got in the sweepstakes and do everything you can to trade for Calvin while his value is slightly in the toilet. He has the tools to break single season records, he's that good.

Click to expand...

here we go with the hype trainI went and looked at Andre Johnson, Randy Moss, and Jerry Rice's best career seasons. The closest to those #'s

Jerry Rice 1995- 122, 1848, 18 td.

That is the greatest WR to ever play the game's best season....and Calvin is going to top that? When he has Calvin ever caught 80 passes in a year?

Click to expand...

I'm glad the hype train is not full...

Click to expand...

Was happy last year too

Very happy as I avoided him in all redraft leagues last year. Wasn't happy though in one auction as I got stuck with him.Please get more people off the hype train, Calvin owners would appreciate it.

Ministry of Pain · Jun 2, 2010

benson_will_lead_the_way said:
Ministry of Pain said:

Calvin will return to greatness this year. Offense has mroe pieces and I expect Stafford to make advances in his 2nd season.

88 receptions 1350 yds, 12 Tds

And I think he is capable of much more. He is a candidate IMO to have one of these 100, 1850yds, 20 Tds...yes he can be that big of a threat. He's a monster to cover, a man amongst boys, go take that Dez Bryant prize you got in the sweepstakes and do everything you can to trade for Calvin while his value is slightly in the toilet. He has the tools to break single season records, he's that good.

Click to expand...

here we go with the hype trainI went and looked at Andre Johnson, Randy Moss, and Jerry Rice's best career seasons. The closest to those #'s

Jerry Rice 1995- 122, 1848, 18 td.

That is the greatest WR to ever play the game's best season....and Calvin is going to top that? When he has Calvin ever caught 80 passes in a year?

Jerry Rice walked on to a team that already won 2 SB in '81 and '84...what did Calvin walk into?

Team ROFLCOPTERS · Jun 2, 2010

I made the mistake of listening to fantasy hacks like Matt Berry last year. I'm willing to give him another shot but I won't reach.

FreeBaGeL · Jun 2, 2010

morehouse_slim said:
I think people are very high on the Detroit offense in general.

Sounds like pretty much every year since about 2003.

pantherclub · Jun 2, 2010

Ho-hum another hyped up pre-season for Calvin. Just as I said last year, until the Lions get a good QB and good line he will be forever limited. Before you jump on me and say Stafford will be good, he is not and the jury is still debating. He had a lot of "WTF" moments in his rookie year and then there was the injury thing. I think Calvin is insanely talented but until someone can get him the ball he is a #2 wr at best.

70-1010-7

Holy Schneikes · Jun 2, 2010

Hope springs eternal for owners.

He could have a monumental season approaching 2000 yards, or he could post 800. Neither would surprise me that much. One of the hardest guys to predict in the game IMO.

Anthony Borbely · Jun 2, 2010

Last year, Calvin had 67/984/5. That is with 2 games missed plus most of a 3rd, and all of the other things mentioned above. Those numbers aren't as bad when you consider the missed games...but they look bad because of the expectations. His numbers projected over 16 games were 76/1124. Not too shabby.

Below are the main reasons I think there will be significant improvement in Calvin's numbers:

1. First time Calvin has the same QB & offensive coordinator in back-to-back year. This means practice time can be more focused on chemistry with Stafford than learning a new offense. That is a lot more important than people realize.

2. Stafford has a year of experience. Big difference IMO.

3. The Lions offense should be significantly better with Best, Burleson, and Scheffler added.

Of course, there are negatives as well.

1. The offensive line is still a problem, although adding Rob Sims at guard should fill the huge hole they have had at left guard for the last decade. It is still a below average line overall.

2. Calvin also has to stay healthy.

3. Even though Stafford is almost certain to show improvement, he is still unproven.

While there are some negatives, I think the positives are significant, especially the difference in skill players on offense. His numbers last year projected over 16 games was 76/1124/5. I can see lower projections for this year if people think he will miss some games, but if he plays 16 games, I can't imagine not seeing improved numbers. There are just too many positive changes for the offense for there to not be some improvement.

pantherclub · Jun 2, 2010

Anthony Borbely said:
Last year, Calvin had 67/984/5. That is with 2 games missed plus most of a 3rd, and all of the other things mentioned above. Those numbers aren't as bad when you consider the missed games...but they look bad because of the expectations. His numbers projected over 16 games were 76/1124. Not too shabby.Below are the main reasons I think there will be significant improvement in Calvin's numbers:1. First time Calvin has the same QB & offensive coordinator in back-to-back year. This means practice time can be more focused on chemistry with Stafford than learning a new offense. That is a lot more important than people realize.2. Stafford has a year of experience. Big difference IMO.3. The Lions offense should be significantly better with Best, Burleson, and Scheffler added. Of course, there are negatives as well. 1. The offensive line is still a problem, although adding Rob Sims at guard should fill the huge hole they have had at left guard for the last decade. It is still a below average line overall.2. Calvin also has to stay healthy. 3. Even though Stafford is almost certain to show improvement, he is still unproven. While there are some negatives, I think the positives are significant, especially the difference in skill players on offense. His numbers last year projected over 16 games was 76/1124/5. I can see lower projections for this year if people think he will miss some games, but if he plays 16 games, I can't imagine not seeing improved numbers. There are just too many positive changes for the offense for there to not be some improvement.

So to me by your post I would say he is a mid to late 3rd round pick. However someone inevitably will reach for him in the beginning of the 2nd. So he becomes to me a huge risk/reward player that will go too high for my tastes.Where do you project he will go Anthony?

Anthony Borbely · Jun 2, 2010

pantherclub said:
Anthony Borbely said:

Last year, Calvin had 67/984/5. That is with 2 games missed plus most of a 3rd, and all of the other things mentioned above. Those numbers aren't as bad when you consider the missed games...but they look bad because of the expectations. His numbers projected over 16 games were 76/1124. Not too shabby.Below are the main reasons I think there will be significant improvement in Calvin's numbers:1. First time Calvin has the same QB & offensive coordinator in back-to-back year. This means practice time can be more focused on chemistry with Stafford than learning a new offense. That is a lot more important than people realize.2. Stafford has a year of experience. Big difference IMO.3. The Lions offense should be significantly better with Best, Burleson, and Scheffler added. Of course, there are negatives as well. 1. The offensive line is still a problem, although adding Rob Sims at guard should fill the huge hole they have had at left guard for the last decade. It is still a below average line overall.2. Calvin also has to stay healthy. 3. Even though Stafford is almost certain to show improvement, he is still unproven. While there are some negatives, I think the positives are significant, especially the difference in skill players on offense. His numbers last year projected over 16 games was 76/1124/5. I can see lower projections for this year if people think he will miss some games, but if he plays 16 games, I can't imagine not seeing improved numbers. There are just too many positive changes for the offense for there to not be some improvement.

Click to expand...

So to me by your post I would say he is a mid to late 3rd round pick. However someone inevitably will reach for him in the beginning of the 2nd. So he becomes to me a huge risk/reward player that will go too high for my tastes.Where do you project he will go Anthony?

I would take him somewhere in round 2 with no reservations at all. Some would not take him anywhere close to that. I think the widespread difference in opinions make it tough to predict where he will be drafted. It depends on the league. I think last year was as bad as things can get for Calvin, and still, his 2009 numbers projected over 16 games were 76/1124/5. I think that is his floor. Considering that, plus how great his numbers were in 2008, my question is this: Can he really not show improvement over last year when you consider the 3 positives I listed above...especially the added weapons? I just don't see any chance he doesn't improve this year.

pantherclub · Jun 2, 2010

I hear what you are saying but by picking him in round 2 that is your WR#1 and I dont like \"risks\" in that position. I want a money player and then gamble going down the line.

thanks for your input

finito · Jun 2, 2010

I love Calvin's talent but he's been dinged 2 of his 3 years in the league. I think he'll be better than last season but won't put up ridiculous numbers like many expect.

74 catches, 1180 yds, 7 TDs

Anthony Borbely · Jun 2, 2010

pantherclub said:
I hear what you are saying but by picking him in round 2 that is your WR#1 and I dont like \"risks\" in that position. I want a money player and then gamble going down the line.thanks for your input

I totally understand your opinion...but I really am not seeing the same risk. Other than Andre Johnson and possibly Moss, I really don't see a WR without risk. For example:Fitzgerald: Matt Leinart and no Boldin makes him more risky than past years.Miles Austin: I like him quite a bit, but a WR with less than one season of big numbers has to have a little bit of risk. Roddy White: Pretty safe, but lacks the upside of other top WRs and the offense is a run-first offense. V Jax: Suspension looming and his best fantasy finish is 10th. Wayne...His numbers fell off a cliff over the last 6-7 weeks and I thought he had a lot of trouble separating. In the past, he was the safest of all WRs, but there are red flags. DeSean Jackson: I am leery about a WR who is not a great red zone target and has high TD numbers that are a big part of his fantasy numbers. That and an unproven QB make me nervous. Steve Smith.: I did a spotlight on him and my opinions are there. Basically, with the exception of Andre and possibly Moss, all of the other top WRs (including Calvin) have some risks. I just think last years projected numbers are Calvin's floor and, in my opinion, he seems as safe as any of the other WRs and has more upside than any of them. That is why I am not concerned about taking him in round 2 this year.Who do you consider the "money" WRs (by your definition), other than Andre and Moss?

pantherclub · Jun 2, 2010

I am pretty sure that Fitz is going to get his no matter who is throwing the ball.

Anthony Borbely · Jun 2, 2010

pantherclub said:
I am pretty sure that Fitz is going to get his no matter who is throwing the ball.

Although I disagree a bit...let's assume Fitz is safe for the sake of discussion. That basically means the safe elite WRs are Fitz, Andre, and Moss. All will go in the first 2 rounds. A handful of other WRs will as well. To me they all have as much or more risk than Calvin and none have the upside. I also think his circumstances are more improved than any other WR in the top 10-12. I can think of things involving Calvin that are not improved, but I can't think of any single thing that will be worse. That is why I am not seeing the risk. Great discussion by the way. :blush:

fightingillini · Jun 2, 2010

Very few WRs in the NFL with the potential of taking any pass to house.....and Calvin is one of them. I like what DET has done on offense, they have grabbed some playmakers to take some pressure off of Calvin.

75 rec, 1165 rec yards, 8 TD

PhantomJB · Jun 2, 2010

Anthony Borbely said:
pantherclub said:

I am pretty sure that Fitz is going to get his no matter who is throwing the ball.

Click to expand...

Although I disagree a bit...let's assume Fitz is safe for the sake of discussion. That basically means the safe elite WRs are Fitz, Andre, and Moss. All will go in the first 2 rounds. A handful of other WRs will as well. To me they all have as much or more risk than Calvin and none have the upside. I also think his circumstances are more improved than any other WR in the top 10-12. I can think of things involving Calvin that are not improved, but I can't think of any single thing that will be worse. That is why I am not seeing the risk. Great discussion by the way.

The fact is that any of the top 12 or so receivers have the combination of talent/situation to enable them to finish number one overall by the end of the season. A lot of how people rank them within that top tier seems to come down to how much they are influenced by recency effects.Even Andre Johnson is not risk-free. It's just that he appears that way because he's a couple years removed from knee problems and now appears to have erased his "injury-risk." Remember also when he got dinged a little in the rankings because Schaub was thought to be injury prone?Moss appears risk-free because nothing has happened in the last couple of years but at 34 each year increases his injury probability, plus it is still not known what will be the effect of losing Welker. If Brady is getting dinged down to QB5-6 range, how can that not affect Moss' ranking at least a little?The definitive statement "Fitz will get his regardless of QB" is just overly simplistic given the major change at QB. A lot of people are talking about the bump in Calvin Johnson's expected performance based on the addition of Burleson, et al. You mean the inverse doesn't apply? That the loss of a major weapon like Boldin even if Warner were still there wouldn't equally hurt a top WR?Mr. Borberly does a nice job in his earlier posting pointing out uncertainties with many of the other WRs. Easy to miss those if a guy has had a great recent performance. Easy to discount guys like Calvin Johnson, Steve Smith (Car), and Brandon Marshall, whose situations involve more recent changes/negative events, but who have still proven at least once they have the ability to be Top 5.I've got Megatron just a tad above last year's prorated numbers:78 / 1200 / 9 TDs receiving4 / 60 / 0 TDs rushing

Creed Bratton · Jun 2, 2010

Anthony Borbely said:
pantherclub said:

I hear what you are saying but by picking him in round 2 that is your WR#1 and I dont like \"risks\" in that position. I want a money player and then gamble going down the line.thanks for your input

Click to expand...

I totally understand your opinion...but I really am not seeing the same risk. Other than Andre Johnson and possibly Moss, I really don't see a WR without risk. For example:Fitzgerald: Matt Leinart and no Boldin makes him more risky than past years.Miles Austin: I like him quite a bit, but a WR with less than one season of big numbers has to have a little bit of risk. Roddy White: Pretty safe, but lacks the upside of other top WRs and the offense is a run-first offense. V Jax: Suspension looming and his best fantasy finish is 10th. Wayne...His numbers fell off a cliff over the last 6-7 weeks and I thought he had a lot of trouble separating. In the past, he was the safest of all WRs, but there are red flags. DeSean Jackson: I am leery about a WR who is not a great red zone target and has high TD numbers that are a big part of his fantasy numbers. That and an unproven QB make me nervous. Steve Smith.: I did a spotlight on him and my opinions are there. Basically, with the exception of Andre and possibly Moss, all of the other top WRs (including Calvin) have some risks. I just think last years projected numbers are Calvin's floor and, in my opinion, he seems as safe as any of the other WRs and has more upside than any of them. That is why I am not concerned about taking him in round 2 this year.Who do you consider the "money" WRs (by your definition), other than Andre and Moss?

I actually agree with the idea the top of the draft is not a place to take a risky player, but i think borbely is right in saying that there aren't many players 'safer' than calvin. If you look at which players are early round busts it's usually often due to:1. Player gets injured2. Player isn't as talented as we thought3. Player got too old and fell off a cliff4. Key teammates went down due to injury (o-line gets decimated, qb goes down for the season)What this tells me is that the best way to minimize risk is to take the most talented players who are going to get the ball or the targets and hope they don't get hammered by injury.I think that calvin's ability to put up numbers with the crap that has surrounded him actually speaks well for him. And last year's per game numbers weren't that bad once you take into account he left one game in the first quarter. If he plays sixteen healthy games, he's looking at a 1200 yard season last year. And there is really no reason to think that his situation is going to be any worse than it was the last two seasons. In fact, his surrounding talent has a chance to be much better.

Anthony Borbely · Jun 2, 2010

Anthony Borbely said:
pantherclub said:

I am pretty sure that Fitz is going to get his no matter who is throwing the ball.

Click to expand...

Although I disagree a bit...let's assume Fitz is safe for the sake of discussion. That basically means the safe elite WRs are Fitz, Andre, and Moss. All will go in the first 2 rounds. A handful of other WRs will as well. To me they all have as much or more risk than Calvin and none have the upside. I also think his circumstances are more improved than any other WR in the top 10-12. I can think of things involving Calvin that are not improved, but I can't think of any single thing that will be worse. That is why I am not seeing the risk. Great discussion by the way.

I'm going to change one of my comments and add Roddy White to the list of safe WRs. I do not think he has the upside of a Moss or Andre, but he has a high floor and there is only a little bit of downside. He is safe to be close to the top 5, but I don't see a high enough ceiling to see him any higher. But he is still pretty safe.

drater · Jun 2, 2010

86/1300/12

Stafford in his second year will be the best deep ball QB Calvin has played with, Calvin's upside is only limited by his and Stafford's health. If both stay healthy, top 5 WR season for CJ. Word out of training camp is that they're connecting on a mental level never approached last year. Lion's homer disclosure, I'd still draft Calvin in the 2nd round if he played for anybody but Buffalo or Cleveland.

FreeBaGeL · Jun 2, 2010

Every player in fantasy football has risk. There is no risk-free wide receiver out there at all.

However, there are a lot of "safe" wide receivers right now. Or at least, significantly "safer" than Calvin.

AJ, Fitzgerald, Moss, Jennings, Roddy, Wayne, Smiff, Austin, and Colston are all guys that I would consider "safe" plays. They all have their risks, but those risks are, at least in my opinion, minor compared to the laundry list of risks that come with Calvin.

Would I take all those guys over Calvin? No way. But to consider them to not be any "safer" of a play than Calvin is silly, imo. As far as "safety" goes, Calvin is in a tier with Marshall, Djax, and Vjax....and honestly I would probably put him near the bottom of that tier.

Of course, I've always argued that "playing it safe" in fantasy football is generally silly, as the guys who explode into huge seasons are the ones that win people fantasy championships. However in the confines of this particular discussion, which is specifically about how risky a player is, Calvin comes in way behind most of those guys.

Dancing Bear · Jun 2, 2010

Don't really see how you can hype Megatron so highly given his own history and his surrounding cast.

Historically he has only a 50% chance of catching any given ball and he will not see enough balls to make him the elite WR that he could be with a competent Offense.

Talent-wise he may be on par with Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Steve Smith, etc. but he will not get 200 balls in a season!

Holy Schneikes · Jun 2, 2010

Dancing Bear said:
Don't really see how you can hype Megatron so highly given his own history and his surrounding cast.

Historically he has only a 50% chance of catching any given ball and he will not see enough balls to make him the elite WR that he could be with a competent Offense.

Talent-wise he may be on par with Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Steve Smith, etc. but he will not get 200 balls in a season!

He is being thrown deep balls by terrible QBs against double and triple coverage. 50% ain't that bad. If any of that changes, look out. And if it doesn't, you'll still get 1000 yards and near 10 TDs.

Creed Bratton · Jun 2, 2010

Dancing Bear said:
Don't really see how you can hype Megatron so highly given his own history and his surrounding cast.

Historically he has only a 50% chance of catching any given ball and he will not see enough balls to make him the elite WR that he could be with a competent Offense.

Talent-wise he may be on par with Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Steve Smith, etc. but he will not get 200 balls in a season!

It's true that he doesn't have he doesn't have a high catch percentage of his targets, but he has been more productive with the receptions that he has gotten. He had a pretty high number of fantasy points per target in 2008 if i recall.

The Real Hipster Doofus · Jun 2, 2010

FreeBaGeL said:
Every player in fantasy football has risk. There is no risk-free wide receiver out there at all.

However, there are a lot of "safe" wide receivers right now. Or at least, significantly "safer" than Calvin.

AJ, Fitzgerald, Moss, Jennings, Roddy, Wayne, Smiff, Austin, and Colston are all guys that I would consider "safe" plays. They all have their risks, but those risks are, at least in my opinion, minor compared to the laundry list of risks that come with Calvin.

Would I take all those guys over Calvin? No way. But to consider them to not be any "safer" of a play than Calvin is silly, imo. As far as "safety" goes, Calvin is in a tier with Marshall, Djax, and Vjax....and honestly I would probably put him near the bottom of that tier.

Of course, I've always argued that "playing it safe" in fantasy football is generally silly, as the guys who explode into huge seasons are the ones that win people fantasy championships. However in the confines of this particular discussion, which is specifically about how risky a player is, Calvin comes in way behind most of those guys.

I don't buy all these guys...Jennings - Lots of weapons in Green Bay, and with Finley's emergence there is a good chance his TD totals stay very low.

Wayne - Indy is loaded with offensive weapons and there is a good chance they spread the ball around more than they have in the past.

Smith - While I think he does well this year, you can't say it is a "minor" risk to be playing with a new QB who has very limited pro experience.

Austin - He is one of the riskiest WR's around. I tend to believe he is the real deal, but he has had one good year after sitting on the bench for a long time. There have been plenty of examples of players who have big years and then come back to earth the next.

Colston - He will put up numbers yes, but I think his numbers have more potential to go down than up. There are a lot of mouths to feed in that offense and some of the other players are good enough now to take touches away from him.

All in all I think outside of AJ, Fitz, Moss and Roddy, Calvin is about as safe a bet as you can get. His size alone will make him a much safer bet for double digit touchdowns than most of these guys.

rzrback77 · Jun 2, 2010

I think that Calvin Johnson is one of those guys where his perceived ability and dynasty ranking leads to a misplaced redraft ranking. Consider that he has had three NFL seasons with the following statistics:

07 15 gms 95 targets 48 catches 50.5% for 756 yards 15.8 ypc 4 TDs and FBG year end rank (non-ppr) of WR 35

08 16 gms 151 targets 78 catches 51.7% for 1331 yards 17.1 ypc 12 TDs & FBG year end rank (non-ppr) of WR 3

09 14 gms 137 targets 73 catches 53.3% for 984 yards 14.7 ypc 5 TDs and FBG year end rank (non-ppr) of WR 21

Compare the above stats with his current ADP of WR5 and 17 overall. They just don't match up. I really think that Calvin Johnson is an exciting player and capable of extraordinary production, but to me he is just not worth the risk as the WR5.

He has several positive factors entering 2010, including the same coaching staff and QB as last year for the first time in his career. Other positives are the additions to the Lions offense, including Best, Burleson, and Scheffler. He should find a little more space on the field this year and Stafford should see improvement in his second year under center. He has the capability of being the top fantasy WR, but his past performances just don't seem to place him as a top five WR in redraft.

Negative factors include the 52% career catch percentage, the missed games, and the game to game inconsistency. In non-ppr scoring last year, he had eight of 14 games where he scored single digits fantasy points.

Calvin Johnson 16 gms 150 targets (9.4 per game) 78 catches 52.0% for 1170 yards 15.0 ypc and 8 TDs

FreeBaGeL · Jun 2, 2010

The Real Hipster Doofus said:
FreeBaGeL said:

Every player in fantasy football has risk. There is no risk-free wide receiver out there at all.

However, there are a lot of "safe" wide receivers right now. Or at least, significantly "safer" than Calvin.

AJ, Fitzgerald, Moss, Jennings, Roddy, Wayne, Smiff, Austin, and Colston are all guys that I would consider "safe" plays. They all have their risks, but those risks are, at least in my opinion, minor compared to the laundry list of risks that come with Calvin.

Would I take all those guys over Calvin? No way. But to consider them to not be any "safer" of a play than Calvin is silly, imo. As far as "safety" goes, Calvin is in a tier with Marshall, Djax, and Vjax....and honestly I would probably put him near the bottom of that tier.

Of course, I've always argued that "playing it safe" in fantasy football is generally silly, as the guys who explode into huge seasons are the ones that win people fantasy championships. However in the confines of this particular discussion, which is specifically about how risky a player is, Calvin comes in way behind most of those guys.

Click to expand...

I don't buy all these guys...Jennings - Lots of weapons in Green Bay, and with Finley's emergence there is a good chance his TD totals stay very low.

Wayne - Indy is loaded with offensive weapons and there is a good chance they spread the ball around more than they have in the past.

Smith - While I think he does well this year, you can't say it is a "minor" risk to be playing with a new QB who has very limited pro experience.

Austin - He is one of the riskiest WR's around. I tend to believe he is the real deal, but he has had one good year after sitting on the bench for a long time. There have been plenty of examples of players who have big years and then come back to earth the next.

Colston - He will put up numbers yes, but I think his numbers have more potential to go down than up. There are a lot of mouths to feed in that offense and some of the other players are good enough now to take touches away from him.

All in all I think outside of AJ, Fitz, Moss and Roddy, Calvin is about as safe a bet as you can get. His size alone will make him a much safer bet for double digit touchdowns than most of these guys.

Wait, so Calvin sucked last year because there weren't enough other options to take pressure off him in the offense, but Wayne, Jennings, and Colston are risky because they DO have other options to take pressure off them?The whole "other weapons" thing is a bit silly. Is a WR better off being the only good target because that means he'll get more targets, or is he better off with a bunch of other good targets to "take pressure off him"? Everyone argues both of them both ways, to suit the point they're trying to make. Realistically, there's no conclusive proof one way or the other. Terrell Owens was the only legitimate target on his team for years and did just fine.

It doesn't really even matter though, because Wayne, Jennings, and Colston have spent their entire careers in basically the same (or worse) situations than they're in now. Jennings is going to have competition? Whoopdee-do. How is that any different than the entire rest of his career where he produced just fine when James Jones was supposed to be the next big thing and where Donald Driver was much closer to his prime? New Orleans is going to spread the ball around? Whoopdee-do. How is that any different than the entire rest of Colston's career where he produced just fine in an offense that spread the ball around? Indy has other weapons besides Wayne? Whoopdee-do. How is that any different than the entire rest of Wayne's career? Unless your argument here is that Pierre Garcon is going to be better next year than Marvin Harrison was in his prime. That's not to mention that, unlike Calvin, all of these guys are on teams that put up enough offensive numbers to feed multiple mouths.

Smiff has a new QB? Not new to him. Moore started the last 4 games of last year and Smiff was an animal. Not to mention it's not like Moore will be any worse than Delhomme, who made Stafford look like Peyton Manning. If Stafford had only started the last 4 games of last year and Calvin went for 392/3 in those games you'd be talking it up as one of the huge bright points for Calvin, not listing it as one of his weaknesses like you're doing for Smith.

Now, I know you'll come back with all these subtle little differences about how this year is going to be oh so different, but they're all minor differences that don't really equate to anything. And to be frank, even with you trying to come up with the risky things you possibly could about those guys, those are pretty weak reasons for making a player "risky" that don't even compare to the reasons that come up on Calvin's "risk list". I could come up with more compelling reasons as to why any player in the entire NFL is risky, CJ2k and Adrian Peterson included. It all just looks like you said those guys are risky and then went back and tried to create some reasons to back it up, rather than the other way around.

I own Calvin Johnson in my dynasty league. I have no reason to hate on him. I would take him over most (if not all) of the guys on that list outside of the big 2 because he has the potential to put up as many fantasy points in a season as two of those guy's average seasons combined. But again, when talking about risk, it's not even close IMO. And I guess that's part of the discussion here, risk is pretty much 100% an opinion. But to me, if you give me that whole list of guys and tell me I'll win a million dollars if I can correctly predict which one of them will be considered a "bust" next season, I'm taking Calvin.

BeTheMatch · Jun 2, 2010

FreeBaGeL said:
I own Calvin Johnson in my dynasty league. I have no reason to hate on him. I would take him over most (if not all) of the guys on that list outside of the big 2 because he has the potential to put up as many fantasy points in a season as two of those guy's average seasons combined. But again, when talking about risk, it's not even close IMO. And I guess that's part of the discussion here, risk is pretty much 100% an opinion. But to me, if you give me that whole list of guys and tell me I'll win a million dollars if I can correctly predict which one of them will be considered a "bust" next season, I'm taking Calvin.

100 percent on the money, IMO.

FantasyMan · Jun 2, 2010

FreeBaGeL said:
Wait, so Calvin sucked last year because there weren't enough other options to take pressure off him in the offense, but Wayne, Jennings, and Colston are risky because they DO have other options to take pressure off them?The whole "other weapons" thing is a bit silly. Is a WR better off being the only good target because that means he'll get more targets, or is he better off with a bunch of other good targets to "take pressure off him"? Everyone argues both of them both ways, to suit the point they're trying to make. Realistically, there's no conclusive proof one way or the other. Terrell Owens was the only legitimate target on his team for years and did just fine.--blah blah blah--Smiff has a new QB? Not new to him. Moore started the last 4 games of last year and Smiff was an animal. Not to mention it's not like Moore will be any worse than Delhomme, who made Stafford look like Peyton Manning. If Stafford had only started the last 4 games of last year and Calvin went for 392/3 in those games you'd be talking it up as one of the huge bright points for Calvin, not listing it as one of his weaknesses like you're doing for Smith.--blah blah blah--

You do realize that there is a huge difference between having no other viable options (as in - not one other player on the Lions' offense last year besides Calvin was a viable option - allowing the defenses to triple team him), having some other viable weapons (as in Calvin's situation this year with the additions of Burleson and Best - which will open up Calvin a bit more) and a situation like Wayne's, Jennings' and Colston's where every other skill position on their offense is a viable threat (as in - every single player on the offense is a threat - every. single. one.)?There just is no comparision.and he wasn't talking about Moore, he was talking about Clausen.

benson_will_lead_the_way · Jun 2, 2010

FantasyMan said:
You do realize that there is a huge difference between having no other viable options (as in - not one other player on the Lions' offense last year besides Calvin was a viable option - allowing the defenses to triple team him), having some other viable weapons (as in Calvin's situation this year with the additions of Burleson and Best - which will open up Calvin a bit more) and a situation like Wayne's, Jennings' and Colston's where every other skill position on their offense is a viable threat (as in - every single player on the offense is a threat - every. single. one.)?

Are people still using this seriously?I recall the Lions spending a first round pick on a TE, signing a former 1st round WR that was never really given a shot to start, and had a 2nd year RB coming off of an impressive rookie campaign. But i'm sure none of these guys were a viable option and the defense triple teamed calvin :rolleyes:

The Real Hipster Doofus · Jun 2, 2010

FreeBaGeL said:
The Real Hipster Doofus said:

FreeBaGeL said:

Every player in fantasy football has risk. There is no risk-free wide receiver out there at all.

However, there are a lot of "safe" wide receivers right now. Or at least, significantly "safer" than Calvin.

AJ, Fitzgerald, Moss, Jennings, Roddy, Wayne, Smiff, Austin, and Colston are all guys that I would consider "safe" plays. They all have their risks, but those risks are, at least in my opinion, minor compared to the laundry list of risks that come with Calvin.

Would I take all those guys over Calvin? No way. But to consider them to not be any "safer" of a play than Calvin is silly, imo. As far as "safety" goes, Calvin is in a tier with Marshall, Djax, and Vjax....and honestly I would probably put him near the bottom of that tier.

Of course, I've always argued that "playing it safe" in fantasy football is generally silly, as the guys who explode into huge seasons are the ones that win people fantasy championships. However in the confines of this particular discussion, which is specifically about how risky a player is, Calvin comes in way behind most of those guys.

Click to expand...

I don't buy all these guys...Jennings - Lots of weapons in Green Bay, and with Finley's emergence there is a good chance his TD totals stay very low.

Wayne - Indy is loaded with offensive weapons and there is a good chance they spread the ball around more than they have in the past.

Smith - While I think he does well this year, you can't say it is a "minor" risk to be playing with a new QB who has very limited pro experience.

Austin - He is one of the riskiest WR's around. I tend to believe he is the real deal, but he has had one good year after sitting on the bench for a long time. There have been plenty of examples of players who have big years and then come back to earth the next.

Colston - He will put up numbers yes, but I think his numbers have more potential to go down than up. There are a lot of mouths to feed in that offense and some of the other players are good enough now to take touches away from him.

All in all I think outside of AJ, Fitz, Moss and Roddy, Calvin is about as safe a bet as you can get. His size alone will make him a much safer bet for double digit touchdowns than most of these guys.

Click to expand...

Wait, so Calvin sucked last year because there weren't enough other options to take pressure off him in the offense, but Wayne, Jennings, and Colston are risky because they DO have other options to take pressure off them?The whole "other weapons" thing is a bit silly. Is a WR better off being the only good target because that means he'll get more targets, or is he better off with a bunch of other good targets to "take pressure off him"? Everyone argues both of them both ways, to suit the point they're trying to make. Realistically, there's no conclusive proof one way or the other. Terrell Owens was the only legitimate target on his team for years and did just fine.

It doesn't really even matter though, because Wayne, Jennings, and Colston have spent their entire careers in basically the same (or worse) situations than they're in now. Jennings is going to have competition? Whoopdee-do. How is that any different than the entire rest of his career where he produced just fine when James Jones was supposed to be the next big thing and where Donald Driver was much closer to his prime? New Orleans is going to spread the ball around? Whoopdee-do. How is that any different than the entire rest of Colston's career where he produced just fine in an offense that spread the ball around? Indy has other weapons besides Wayne? Whoopdee-do. How is that any different than the entire rest of Wayne's career? Unless your argument here is that Pierre Garcon is going to be better next year than Marvin Harrison was in his prime. That's not to mention that, unlike Calvin, all of these guys are on teams that put up enough offensive numbers to feed multiple mouths.

Smiff has a new QB? Not new to him. Moore started the last 4 games of last year and Smiff was an animal. Not to mention it's not like Moore will be any worse than Delhomme, who made Stafford look like Peyton Manning. If Stafford had only started the last 4 games of last year and Calvin went for 392/3 in those games you'd be talking it up as one of the huge bright points for Calvin, not listing it as one of his weaknesses like you're doing for Smith.

Now, I know you'll come back with all these subtle little differences about how this year is going to be oh so different, but they're all minor differences that don't really equate to anything. And to be frank, even with you trying to come up with the risky things you possibly could about those guys, those are pretty weak reasons for making a player "risky" that don't even compare to the reasons that come up on Calvin's "risk list". I could come up with more compelling reasons as to why any player in the entire NFL is risky, CJ2k and Adrian Peterson included. It all just looks like you said those guys are risky and then went back and tried to create some reasons to back it up, rather than the other way around.

I own Calvin Johnson in my dynasty league. I have no reason to hate on him. I would take him over most (if not all) of the guys on that list outside of the big 2 because he has the potential to put up as many fantasy points in a season as two of those guy's average seasons combined. But again, when talking about risk, it's not even close IMO. And I guess that's part of the discussion here, risk is pretty much 100% an opinion. But to me, if you give me that whole list of guys and tell me I'll win a million dollars if I can correctly predict which one of them will be considered a "bust" next season, I'm taking Calvin.

For the record I don't think the adding of weapons around Calvin is the main reason his numbers go up. IMO the two main factors are (hopefully) better health and a much improved QB play. WR's like Owens, Calvin, Moss, Marshall etc don't need other talented WR's around him as much as another guy would simply because they are so physically dominating. That being said I think there is a happy medium for WR's that is the best for fantasy numbers. You don't want Lions level offensive weapons, but you also don't want an overload of offensive weapons like the Packers, Colts and Saints have for the most part.

The Packers have always spread the ball around yes, but they have never had a dominant TE who is an awesome red zone target like Finley. Jennings will get his catches and yards I have no doubt, it is his TD numbers I would be worried about.

The Colts always spread the ball around yes, but I don't think they have ever had a wealth of receiving options like they have right now. Same as Jennings in that I think he gets his catches and yards, but his TD numbers may take a hit with all the options.

The Saints always spread the ball around yes, but I think Meachem and the other targets continue to cut into Colston's production a bit.

Matt Moore put up those numbers in the final 4 games of the season yes. While I like what I saw from him, lets see him do it for a while with defenses preparing for him before we anoint him.

Having said all that, I still like all of these guys in both redraft and dynasty. I am especially high on Jennings and Smith. My point is simply to say that they are not without risk.

FreeBaGeL · Jun 2, 2010

The Real Hipster Doofus said:
For the record I don't think the adding of weapons around Calvin is the main reason his numbers go up. IMO the two main factors are (hopefully) better health and a much improved QB play. WR's like Owens, Calvin, Moss, Marshall etc don't need other talented WR's around him as much as another guy would simply because they are so physically dominating. That being said I think there is a happy medium for WR's that is the best for fantasy numbers. You don't want Lions level offensive weapons, but you also don't want an overload of offensive weapons like the Packers, Colts and Saints have for the most part. The Packers have always spread the ball around yes, but they have never had a dominant TE who is an awesome red zone target like Finley. Jennings will get his catches and yards I have no doubt, it is his TD numbers I would be worried about. The Colts always spread the ball around yes, but I don't think they have ever had a wealth of receiving options like they have right now. Same as Jennings in that I think he gets his catches and yards, but his TD numbers may take a hit with all the options. The Saints always spread the ball around yes, but I think Meachem and the other targets continue to cut into Colston's production a bit. Matt Moore put up those numbers in the final 4 games of the season yes. While I like what I saw from him, lets see him do it for a while with defenses preparing for him before we anoint him. Having said all that, I still like all of these guys in both redraft and dynasty. I am especially high on Jennings and Smith. My point is simply to say that they are not without risk.

New year, same story, different names.Let's just throw aside the whole part about all these guys having a consistent history of producing that Calvin does not. Let's just throw aside the fact that most of them have had fewer injury concerns in the last 6 years than Calvin has in the last 3. Let's just look at these situations you pointed out, that create this artificial risk.The Detroit offense has been "on the rise" for 5+ years now. We've heard about talent they're bringing in every year. What makes Nate Burleson any different than Bryant Johnson or Mike Williams or Dennis Northcutt or Mike Furrey? What makes Jahvid Best any different than than Kevin Smith or Kevin Jones? What makes Matt Stafford and different than Joey Harrington or Daunte Culpepper (remember, according to people around here Culpepper and Calvin were a match made in heaven). These were all guys that, according to these boards, were going to bring the Detroit offense up to snuff.What makes Pierre Garcon or Austin Collie any different than Anthony Gonzalez or Brandon Stokely or Dallas Clark? These were all guys that were going to steal touches in Indy.What makes Jermichael Finley any different than James Jones or Jordy Nelson? These were both guys who were going to come in and take gobs of looks away from the other WRs. No one could prosper fantasy-wise among that quatuplet of WRs (those two combined with Jennings and Driver). No one.What makes Robert Meachem any different than Devery Henderson or Reggie Bush or Jeremy Shockey or Lance Moore? You already know how the rest of this paragraph goes.Again, I'm sure you'll want to break down all these arbitrary little differences between the players for me, but you'd be missing the point. The point is, these guys have been in these situations before, and we've seen how they played out. And not just once. Over, and over, and over again and in some past years to much greater extremes than this year, at least as far as people's perspectives go. None of the guys in this year's discussion are thought of as highly as guys like Gonzalez or KJ were when they entered the discussion.We've seen this play out for 5 years running now. But THIS year is the year it all changes, right? People are high on the up and coming Detroit offense every year, but THIS year is the year everyone is finally going to be correct, right?. People are weary of all the weapons Indy, GB, and NO adds every year, but THIS year is going to be the year that it finally has a dramatic effect on their primary fantasy performers, right?Like you said, those other WRs aren't risk, there's no debating that. But no player is without risk, and most come with FAR more risk than those guys do. For instance, Calvin Johnson

PhantomJB · Jun 2, 2010

FreeBaGeL said:
The Real Hipster Doofus said:

For the record I don't think the adding of weapons around Calvin is the main reason his numbers go up. IMO the two main factors are (hopefully) better health and a much improved QB play. WR's like Owens, Calvin, Moss, Marshall etc don't need other talented WR's around him as much as another guy would simply because they are so physically dominating. That being said I think there is a happy medium for WR's that is the best for fantasy numbers. You don't want Lions level offensive weapons, but you also don't want an overload of offensive weapons like the Packers, Colts and Saints have for the most part. The Packers have always spread the ball around yes, but they have never had a dominant TE who is an awesome red zone target like Finley. Jennings will get his catches and yards I have no doubt, it is his TD numbers I would be worried about. The Colts always spread the ball around yes, but I don't think they have ever had a wealth of receiving options like they have right now. Same as Jennings in that I think he gets his catches and yards, but his TD numbers may take a hit with all the options. The Saints always spread the ball around yes, but I think Meachem and the other targets continue to cut into Colston's production a bit. Matt Moore put up those numbers in the final 4 games of the season yes. While I like what I saw from him, lets see him do it for a while with defenses preparing for him before we anoint him. Having said all that, I still like all of these guys in both redraft and dynasty. I am especially high on Jennings and Smith. My point is simply to say that they are not without risk.

Click to expand...

New year, same story, different names.Let's just throw aside the whole part about all these guys having a consistent history of producing that Calvin does not. Let's just throw aside the fact that most of them have had fewer injury concerns in the last 6 years than Calvin has in the last 3. Let's just look at these situations you pointed out, that create this artificial risk.The Detroit offense has been "on the rise" for 5+ years now. We've heard about talent they're bringing in every year. What makes Nate Burleson any different than Bryant Johnson or Mike Williams or Dennis Northcutt or Mike Furrey? What makes Jahvid Best any different than than Kevin Smith or Kevin Jones? What makes Matt Stafford and different than Joey Harrington or Daunte Culpepper (remember, according to people around here Culpepper and Calvin were a match made in heaven). These were all guys that, according to these boards, were going to bring the Detroit offense up to snuff.What makes Pierre Garcon or Austin Collie any different than Anthony Gonzalez or Brandon Stokely or Dallas Clark? These were all guys that were going to steal touches in Indy.What makes Jermichael Finley any different than James Jones or Jordy Nelson? These were both guys who were going to come in and take gobs of looks away from the other WRs. No one could prosper fantasy-wise among that quatuplet of WRs (those two combined with Jennings and Driver). No one.What makes Robert Meachem any different than Devery Henderson or Reggie Bush or Jeremy Shockey or Lance Moore? You already know how the rest of this paragraph goes.Again, I'm sure you'll want to break down all these arbitrary little differences between the players for me, but you'd be missing the point. The point is, these guys have been in these situations before, and we've seen how they played out. And not just once. Over, and over, and over again and in some past years to much greater extremes than this year, at least as far as people's perspectives go. None of the guys in this year's discussion are thought of as highly as guys like Gonzalez or KJ were when they entered the discussion.We've seen this play out for 5 years running now. But THIS year is the year it all changes, right? People are high on the up and coming Detroit offense every year, but THIS year is the year everyone is finally going to be correct, right?. People are weary of all the weapons Indy, GB, and NO adds every year, but THIS year is going to be the year that it finally has a dramatic effect on their primary fantasy performers, right?Like you said, those other WRs aren't risk, there's no debating that. But no player is without risk, and most come with FAR more risk than those guys do. For instance, Calvin Johnson

Nice qualitative arguments, but I have a polite request. Could those who are debating a lot of subjective terms (like risk, upside, weapons, etc.) with no standardized definitions please also take a thoughtful stab at some projections such as WR # and yds/TDs so we can see how this translates into a prediction of some sort as the OP requests? It helps to bracket his expected performance based on informed opinions. Thanks.

The Real Hipster Doofus · Jun 2, 2010

FreeBaGeL said:
The Real Hipster Doofus said:

For the record I don't think the adding of weapons around Calvin is the main reason his numbers go up. IMO the two main factors are (hopefully) better health and a much improved QB play. WR's like Owens, Calvin, Moss, Marshall etc don't need other talented WR's around him as much as another guy would simply because they are so physically dominating.

That being said I think there is a happy medium for WR's that is the best for fantasy numbers. You don't want Lions level offensive weapons, but you also don't want an overload of offensive weapons like the Packers, Colts and Saints have for the most part.

The Packers have always spread the ball around yes, but they have never had a dominant TE who is an awesome red zone target like Finley. Jennings will get his catches and yards I have no doubt, it is his TD numbers I would be worried about.

The Colts always spread the ball around yes, but I don't think they have ever had a wealth of receiving options like they have right now. Same as Jennings in that I think he gets his catches and yards, but his TD numbers may take a hit with all the options.

The Saints always spread the ball around yes, but I think Meachem and the other targets continue to cut into Colston's production a bit.

Matt Moore put up those numbers in the final 4 games of the season yes. While I like what I saw from him, lets see him do it for a while with defenses preparing for him before we anoint him.

Having said all that, I still like all of these guys in both redraft and dynasty. I am especially high on Jennings and Smith. My point is simply to say that they are not without risk.

Click to expand...

New year, same story, different names.Let's just throw aside the whole part about all these guys having a consistent history of producing that Calvin does not. Let's just throw aside the fact that most of them have had fewer injury concerns in the last 6 years than Calvin has in the last 3. Let's just look at these situations you pointed out, that create this artificial risk.

An average of 64/1023/7 over his 1st 3 years in the league, on one of the the worst franchines in NFL history with the likes of Kitna, Orlovsky, Stanton, Culpepper and a rookie Stafford throwing to him isn't production? Thats news to me. That average would have put him at WR #11 this past year, and as I mentioned it was over his first 3 seasons in the league.

The Detroit offense has been "on the rise" for 5+ years now. We've heard about talent they're bringing in every year. What makes Nate Burleson any different than Bryant Johnson or Mike Williams or Dennis Northcutt or Mike Furrey? What makes Jahvid Best any different than than Kevin Smith or Kevin Jones? What makes Matt Stafford and different than Joey Harrington or Daunte Culpepper (remember, according to people around here Culpepper and Calvin were a match made in heaven). These were all guys that, according to these boards, were going to bring the Detroit offense up to snuff.

Where in the world are you getting that from? As you can tell from my info, I live in the Detroit area, and I can tell you that the person who thought Detroit was on the rise the past few years was few and far between. The Millen/Mornhinweg/Marinelli era was devoid of hope. Best is a superior talent to anything the Lions have had at RB since Barry. Stafford has proven to me he can play in this league, the fact that you compare him to Harrington tells me you don't follow the Lions closely. Harrington never had it from the from the first time he stepped on the field and never would. I don't really care what people on the board said at the time, I'm telling you why there is a significant difference now.

What makes Pierre Garcon or Austin Collie any different than Anthony Gonzalez or Brandon Stokely or Dallas Clark? These were all guys that were going to steal touches in Indy.

Not sure why Dallas Clark is mentioned because he has always been there. I tend to believe that the combo of Garcon, Collie and Gonzalez is far more talented than any group Wayne has played with post-Harrison.

What makes Jermichael Finley any different than James Jones or Jordy Nelson? These were both guys who were going to come in and take gobs of looks away from the other WRs. No one could prosper fantasy-wise among that quatuplet of WRs (those two combined with Jennings and Driver). No one.

I will pretend you didn't really just ask what was different about Finley and those two. There is a massive difference between a guy who could possibly be the best TE in the league this season and solid depth WR's.

What makes Robert Meachem any different than Devery Henderson or Reggie Bush or Jeremy Shockey or Lance Moore? You already know how the rest of this paragraph goes.

A former 1st round WR with all the physical tools is different than a bunch of gadget players. But as I said its more the sum of all the parts. When the Saints are lining up at the 5 yard line, I doubt they are keying in on Colston all that much. I am pretty sure Brees will get it to the open man which could be any of those players.

Again, I'm sure you'll want to break down all these arbitrary little differences between the players for me, but you'd be missing the point. The point is, these guys have been in these situations before, and we've seen how they played out. And not just once. Over, and over, and over again and in some past years to much greater extremes than this year, at least as far as people's perspectives go. None of the guys in this year's discussion are thought of as highly as guys like Gonzalez or KJ were when they entered the discussion.

We've seen this play out for 5 years running now. But THIS year is the year it all changes, right? People are high on the up and coming Detroit offense every year, but THIS year is the year everyone is finally going to be correct, right?. People are weary of all the weapons Indy, GB, and NO adds every year, but THIS year is going to be the year that it finally has a dramatic effect on their primary fantasy performers, right?

Thinking like that is how you get left holding the bag on certain players, and missing out on a lot of others. Because as we all know if something has happened for 5 years straight it will continue for 6 right?

Like you said, those other WRs aren't risk, there's no debating that. But no player is without risk, and most come with FAR more risk than those guys do. For instance, Calvin Johnson

The Real Hipster Doofus · Jun 2, 2010

PhantomJB said:
FreeBaGeL said:

The Real Hipster Doofus said:

For the record I don't think the adding of weapons around Calvin is the main reason his numbers go up. IMO the two main factors are (hopefully) better health and a much improved QB play. WR's like Owens, Calvin, Moss, Marshall etc don't need other talented WR's around him as much as another guy would simply because they are so physically dominating. That being said I think there is a happy medium for WR's that is the best for fantasy numbers. You don't want Lions level offensive weapons, but you also don't want an overload of offensive weapons like the Packers, Colts and Saints have for the most part. The Packers have always spread the ball around yes, but they have never had a dominant TE who is an awesome red zone target like Finley. Jennings will get his catches and yards I have no doubt, it is his TD numbers I would be worried about. The Colts always spread the ball around yes, but I don't think they have ever had a wealth of receiving options like they have right now. Same as Jennings in that I think he gets his catches and yards, but his TD numbers may take a hit with all the options. The Saints always spread the ball around yes, but I think Meachem and the other targets continue to cut into Colston's production a bit. Matt Moore put up those numbers in the final 4 games of the season yes. While I like what I saw from him, lets see him do it for a while with defenses preparing for him before we anoint him. Having said all that, I still like all of these guys in both redraft and dynasty. I am especially high on Jennings and Smith. My point is simply to say that they are not without risk.

Click to expand...

New year, same story, different names.Let's just throw aside the whole part about all these guys having a consistent history of producing that Calvin does not. Let's just throw aside the fact that most of them have had fewer injury concerns in the last 6 years than Calvin has in the last 3. Let's just look at these situations you pointed out, that create this artificial risk.The Detroit offense has been "on the rise" for 5+ years now. We've heard about talent they're bringing in every year. What makes Nate Burleson any different than Bryant Johnson or Mike Williams or Dennis Northcutt or Mike Furrey? What makes Jahvid Best any different than than Kevin Smith or Kevin Jones? What makes Matt Stafford and different than Joey Harrington or Daunte Culpepper (remember, according to people around here Culpepper and Calvin were a match made in heaven). These were all guys that, according to these boards, were going to bring the Detroit offense up to snuff.What makes Pierre Garcon or Austin Collie any different than Anthony Gonzalez or Brandon Stokely or Dallas Clark? These were all guys that were going to steal touches in Indy.What makes Jermichael Finley any different than James Jones or Jordy Nelson? These were both guys who were going to come in and take gobs of looks away from the other WRs. No one could prosper fantasy-wise among that quatuplet of WRs (those two combined with Jennings and Driver). No one.What makes Robert Meachem any different than Devery Henderson or Reggie Bush or Jeremy Shockey or Lance Moore? You already know how the rest of this paragraph goes.Again, I'm sure you'll want to break down all these arbitrary little differences between the players for me, but you'd be missing the point. The point is, these guys have been in these situations before, and we've seen how they played out. And not just once. Over, and over, and over again and in some past years to much greater extremes than this year, at least as far as people's perspectives go. None of the guys in this year's discussion are thought of as highly as guys like Gonzalez or KJ were when they entered the discussion.We've seen this play out for 5 years running now. But THIS year is the year it all changes, right? People are high on the up and coming Detroit offense every year, but THIS year is the year everyone is finally going to be correct, right?. People are weary of all the weapons Indy, GB, and NO adds every year, but THIS year is going to be the year that it finally has a dramatic effect on their primary fantasy performers, right?Like you said, those other WRs aren't risk, there's no debating that. But no player is without risk, and most come with FAR more risk than those guys do. For instance, Calvin Johnson

Click to expand...

Nice qualitative arguments, but I have a polite request. Could those who are debating a lot of subjective terms (like risk, upside, weapons, etc.) with no standardized definitions please also take a thoughtful stab at some projections such as WR # and yds/TDs so we can see how this translates into a prediction of some sort as the OP requests? It helps to bracket his expected performance based on informed opinions. Thanks.

Well I just posted that in another thread that I don't do projections. But I will throw some out there for Calvin.85 rec/1400 yards/13 TD's

PhantomJB · Jun 2, 2010

The Real Hipster Doofus said:
PhantomJB said:

FreeBaGeL said:

The Real Hipster Doofus said:

For the record I don't think the adding of weapons around Calvin is the main reason his numbers go up. IMO the two main factors are (hopefully) better health and a much improved QB play. WR's like Owens, Calvin, Moss, Marshall etc don't need other talented WR's around him as much as another guy would simply because they are so physically dominating. That being said I think there is a happy medium for WR's that is the best for fantasy numbers. You don't want Lions level offensive weapons, but you also don't want an overload of offensive weapons like the Packers, Colts and Saints have for the most part. The Packers have always spread the ball around yes, but they have never had a dominant TE who is an awesome red zone target like Finley. Jennings will get his catches and yards I have no doubt, it is his TD numbers I would be worried about. The Colts always spread the ball around yes, but I don't think they have ever had a wealth of receiving options like they have right now. Same as Jennings in that I think he gets his catches and yards, but his TD numbers may take a hit with all the options. The Saints always spread the ball around yes, but I think Meachem and the other targets continue to cut into Colston's production a bit. Matt Moore put up those numbers in the final 4 games of the season yes. While I like what I saw from him, lets see him do it for a while with defenses preparing for him before we anoint him. Having said all that, I still like all of these guys in both redraft and dynasty. I am especially high on Jennings and Smith. My point is simply to say that they are not without risk.

Click to expand...

New year, same story, different names.Let's just throw aside the whole part about all these guys having a consistent history of producing that Calvin does not. Let's just throw aside the fact that most of them have had fewer injury concerns in the last 6 years than Calvin has in the last 3. Let's just look at these situations you pointed out, that create this artificial risk.The Detroit offense has been "on the rise" for 5+ years now. We've heard about talent they're bringing in every year. What makes Nate Burleson any different than Bryant Johnson or Mike Williams or Dennis Northcutt or Mike Furrey? What makes Jahvid Best any different than than Kevin Smith or Kevin Jones? What makes Matt Stafford and different than Joey Harrington or Daunte Culpepper (remember, according to people around here Culpepper and Calvin were a match made in heaven). These were all guys that, according to these boards, were going to bring the Detroit offense up to snuff.What makes Pierre Garcon or Austin Collie any different than Anthony Gonzalez or Brandon Stokely or Dallas Clark? These were all guys that were going to steal touches in Indy.What makes Jermichael Finley any different than James Jones or Jordy Nelson? These were both guys who were going to come in and take gobs of looks away from the other WRs. No one could prosper fantasy-wise among that quatuplet of WRs (those two combined with Jennings and Driver). No one.What makes Robert Meachem any different than Devery Henderson or Reggie Bush or Jeremy Shockey or Lance Moore? You already know how the rest of this paragraph goes.Again, I'm sure you'll want to break down all these arbitrary little differences between the players for me, but you'd be missing the point. The point is, these guys have been in these situations before, and we've seen how they played out. And not just once. Over, and over, and over again and in some past years to much greater extremes than this year, at least as far as people's perspectives go. None of the guys in this year's discussion are thought of as highly as guys like Gonzalez or KJ were when they entered the discussion.We've seen this play out for 5 years running now. But THIS year is the year it all changes, right? People are high on the up and coming Detroit offense every year, but THIS year is the year everyone is finally going to be correct, right?. People are weary of all the weapons Indy, GB, and NO adds every year, but THIS year is going to be the year that it finally has a dramatic effect on their primary fantasy performers, right?Like you said, those other WRs aren't risk, there's no debating that. But no player is without risk, and most come with FAR more risk than those guys do. For instance, Calvin Johnson

Click to expand...

Nice qualitative arguments, but I have a polite request. Could those who are debating a lot of subjective terms (like risk, upside, weapons, etc.) with no standardized definitions please also take a thoughtful stab at some projections such as WR # and yds/TDs so we can see how this translates into a prediction of some sort as the OP requests? It helps to bracket his expected performance based on informed opinions. Thanks.

Click to expand...

Well I just posted that in another thread that I don't do projections. But I will throw some out there for Calvin.85 rec/1400 yards/13 TD's

Understood on the value of projections. But though I'm in the Calvin "bull" camp and have my own projections, it is helpful to listen to contrary arguments to see what I might be missingn but those aren't as useful if not quantified.Also, in your earlier comments Hipster are you high on Jennings/Smiff from a VBD standpoint or sheer performance? Current ADP has Calvin at ADP 17/WR5 and Smith at ADP 42/WR15. While I would try to argue all day long why I thought Johnson would end the year closer to 5 than Smith in terms of performance, personally I would still take Smith all day long over CJ at this ADP discrepancy. Not enough distinction between value and performance in this thread.

The Real Hipster Doofus · Jun 2, 2010

PhantomJB said:
The Real Hipster Doofus said:

PhantomJB said:

FreeBaGeL said:

The Real Hipster Doofus said:

For the record I don't think the adding of weapons around Calvin is the main reason his numbers go up. IMO the two main factors are (hopefully) better health and a much improved QB play. WR's like Owens, Calvin, Moss, Marshall etc don't need other talented WR's around him as much as another guy would simply because they are so physically dominating. That being said I think there is a happy medium for WR's that is the best for fantasy numbers. You don't want Lions level offensive weapons, but you also don't want an overload of offensive weapons like the Packers, Colts and Saints have for the most part. The Packers have always spread the ball around yes, but they have never had a dominant TE who is an awesome red zone target like Finley. Jennings will get his catches and yards I have no doubt, it is his TD numbers I would be worried about. The Colts always spread the ball around yes, but I don't think they have ever had a wealth of receiving options like they have right now. Same as Jennings in that I think he gets his catches and yards, but his TD numbers may take a hit with all the options. The Saints always spread the ball around yes, but I think Meachem and the other targets continue to cut into Colston's production a bit. Matt Moore put up those numbers in the final 4 games of the season yes. While I like what I saw from him, lets see him do it for a while with defenses preparing for him before we anoint him. Having said all that, I still like all of these guys in both redraft and dynasty. I am especially high on Jennings and Smith. My point is simply to say that they are not without risk.

Click to expand...

New year, same story, different names.Let's just throw aside the whole part about all these guys having a consistent history of producing that Calvin does not. Let's just throw aside the fact that most of them have had fewer injury concerns in the last 6 years than Calvin has in the last 3. Let's just look at these situations you pointed out, that create this artificial risk.The Detroit offense has been "on the rise" for 5+ years now. We've heard about talent they're bringing in every year. What makes Nate Burleson any different than Bryant Johnson or Mike Williams or Dennis Northcutt or Mike Furrey? What makes Jahvid Best any different than than Kevin Smith or Kevin Jones? What makes Matt Stafford and different than Joey Harrington or Daunte Culpepper (remember, according to people around here Culpepper and Calvin were a match made in heaven). These were all guys that, according to these boards, were going to bring the Detroit offense up to snuff.What makes Pierre Garcon or Austin Collie any different than Anthony Gonzalez or Brandon Stokely or Dallas Clark? These were all guys that were going to steal touches in Indy.What makes Jermichael Finley any different than James Jones or Jordy Nelson? These were both guys who were going to come in and take gobs of looks away from the other WRs. No one could prosper fantasy-wise among that quatuplet of WRs (those two combined with Jennings and Driver). No one.What makes Robert Meachem any different than Devery Henderson or Reggie Bush or Jeremy Shockey or Lance Moore? You already know how the rest of this paragraph goes.Again, I'm sure you'll want to break down all these arbitrary little differences between the players for me, but you'd be missing the point. The point is, these guys have been in these situations before, and we've seen how they played out. And not just once. Over, and over, and over again and in some past years to much greater extremes than this year, at least as far as people's perspectives go. None of the guys in this year's discussion are thought of as highly as guys like Gonzalez or KJ were when they entered the discussion.We've seen this play out for 5 years running now. But THIS year is the year it all changes, right? People are high on the up and coming Detroit offense every year, but THIS year is the year everyone is finally going to be correct, right?. People are weary of all the weapons Indy, GB, and NO adds every year, but THIS year is going to be the year that it finally has a dramatic effect on their primary fantasy performers, right?Like you said, those other WRs aren't risk, there's no debating that. But no player is without risk, and most come with FAR more risk than those guys do. For instance, Calvin Johnson

Click to expand...

Nice qualitative arguments, but I have a polite request. Could those who are debating a lot of subjective terms (like risk, upside, weapons, etc.) with no standardized definitions please also take a thoughtful stab at some projections such as WR # and yds/TDs so we can see how this translates into a prediction of some sort as the OP requests? It helps to bracket his expected performance based on informed opinions. Thanks.

Click to expand...

Well I just posted that in another thread that I don't do projections. But I will throw some out there for Calvin.85 rec/1400 yards/13 TD's

Click to expand...

Understood on the value of projections. But though I'm in the Calvin "bull" camp and have my own projections, it is helpful to listen to contrary arguments to see what I might be missingn but those aren't as useful if not quantified.Also, in your earlier comments Hipster are you high on Jennings/Smiff from a VBD standpoint or sheer performance? Current ADP has Calvin at ADP 17/WR5 and Smith at ADP 42/WR15. While I would try to argue all day long why I thought Johnson would end the year closer to 5 than Smith in terms of performance, personally I would still take Smith all day long over CJ at this ADP discrepancy. Not enough distinction between value and performance in this thread.

I don't see a reason why you couldn't have both. That would be my approach. Assuming a QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR/TE format, I think its pretty likely I will end up with 3 WR's within the first 4 picks. I think there is plenty of value in that 2-4 round range at WR, and a lot less at the RB position. I think with Jennings you pretty much know what you are getting.With Smith I think he significantly outperforms his ADP, but there is more risk involved with him.

pantherclub · Jun 2, 2010

My main arguement is that Johnson plays on the Lions and Stafford just didnt impress me last year. Too many crazy throws to Calvin just to see if he could catch them. I still wouldnt risk taking him in the 2nd (where you would have to draft him to get him) and relying on him as your #1. If for some reason he falls to you in the mid to late third then the conversation begins.

Chicago Hooligan · Jun 2, 2010

Anthony Borbely said:
1. First time Calvin has the same QB & offensive coordinator in back-to-back year. This means practice time can be more focused on chemistry with Stafford than learning a new offense. That is a lot more important than people realize.

I don't disagree, but last year lots of people said this stuff didn't matter because he's SO good.And I didn't draft him. :hophead:

FreeBaGeL · Jun 2, 2010

The Real Hipster Doofus said:
Where in the world are you getting that from? As you can tell from my info, I live in the Detroit area, and I can tell you that the person who thought Detroit was on the rise the past few years was few and far between. The Millen/Mornhinweg/Marinelli era was devoid of hope. Best is a superior talent to anything the Lions have had at RB since Barry. Stafford has proven to me he can play in this league, the fact that you compare him to Harrington tells me you don't follow the Lions closely. Harrington never had it from the from the first time he stepped on the field and never would. I don't really care what people on the board said at the time, I'm telling you why there is a significant difference now.

It has nothing to do with the rise of Detroit as a team. It has to do with the rise of Detroit as a fantasy offense. And on that front, we've heard every year about why this year is the year they're on the rise. Best is the best RB they've had since Barry? Hindsight. Everyone was saying the same thing about Kevin Jones. Do you not remember the draft where they picked Roy Williams and Kevin Jones? Everyone was "omg, the Lions actually got their act together and had an AMAZING draft this year. Pair those guys with Charles Rogers and this is going to be like the 2000 Rams".Then they added Mike Williams. And Kitna. And Calvin. And Smith. And Pettigrew. All these guys were every bit as big an additional at the time (actually, much BIGGER additions) than a guy like Burleson.

The Real Hipster Doofus said:
I tend to believe that the combo of Garcon, Collie and Gonzalez is far more talented than any group Wayne has played with post-Harrison.

Uh, so? Once Wayne hit his prime he was every bit as good with Harrison there (1200/12, 1100/5, 1300/9 even when Harrison was still putting up pro bowl numbers) as he has been the last two years. If anything what you're saying is that Wayne has succeeded with better weapons around him and that Wayne has succeeded with fewer weapons around him. That's not an argument against him.

The Real Hipster Doofus said:
I will pretend you didn't really just ask what was different about Finley and those two. There is a massive difference between a guy who could possibly be the best TE in the league this season and solid depth WR's. A former 1st round WR with all the physical tools is different than a bunch of gadget players. But as I said its more the sum of all the parts. When the Saints are lining up at the 5 yard line, I doubt they are keying in on Colston all that much. I am pretty sure Brees will get it to the open man which could be any of those players.

I think you're missing the point. Jermichael Finley isn't the best TE in football. He might be (unlikely). Then again he might be a mediocre TE. Then again he might be a garbage TE.Jones and Nelson weren't "good depth" when people were talking them up when they were the next big thing. All those Saints players weren't "gadget players" when everyone was talking them up to be the next big thing and drafting them early in their fantasy draft. The point is, we see these guys every year, and more often than not they just fade away while the true studs in their prime remain. It's just different names and two years from now you'll likely be using most of these guys as examples of "gadget players" and "depth".

The Real Hipster Doofus said:
Thinking like that is how you get left holding the bag on certain players, and missing out on a lot of others. Because as we all know if something has happened for 5 years straight it will continue for 6 right?

Does something happening 5 years in a row mean it's going to happen in year 6? Obviously not. Does it make it more likely for year 6? Absolutely. And if we were just talking about about this straight up in a vacuum, I'd have no problem with you throwing all that out and saying "you know what, this year's going to be different, I can feel it". In fact, I'd commend you for it as you'll find I'm the first to use that in arguments myself (if you need proof, go look at any Steven Jackson threads from last year that I posted in. Or even go back to some Calvin threads from last year where I argued that I would rather have him than Fitzgerald). But we're not talking about a vacuum or even about a player as a whole here, we're talking SPECIFICALLY about risk.The chances are good that New Orleans, Indy, and Green Bay will go right on trucking along the same way they have been for the last half decade. And chances are the Lions will go right on trucking along the same way they have the last half decade. Could this be the year that everything changes? Absolutely, but it's unlikely. And when we're talking about risk specifically, that's pretty damning.Anyway, I'll leave it at that since it's silly to spend this much time on one specific part of a player's value anyway.

massraider · Jun 2, 2010

rzrback77 said:
I think that Calvin Johnson is one of those guys where his perceived ability and dynasty ranking leads to a misplaced redraft ranking. Consider that he has had three NFL seasons with the following statistics:07 15 gms 95 targets 48 catches 50.5% for 756 yards 15.8 ypc 4 TDs and FBG year end rank (non-ppr) of WR 3508 16 gms 151 targets 78 catches 51.7% for 1331 yards 17.1 ypc 12 TDs & FBG year end rank (non-ppr) of WR 309 14 gms 137 targets 73 catches 53.3% for 984 yards 14.7 ypc 5 TDs and FBG year end rank (non-ppr) of WR 21Compare the above stats with his current ADP of WR5 and 17 overall. They just don't match up. I really think that Calvin Johnson is an exciting player and capable of extraordinary production, but to me he is just not worth the risk as the WR5.He has several positive factors entering 2010, including the same coaching staff and QB as last year for the first time in his career. Other positives are the additions to the Lions offense, including Best, Burleson, and Scheffler. He should find a little more space on the field this year and Stafford should see improvement in his second year under center. He has the capability of being the top fantasy WR, but his past performances just don't seem to place him as a top five WR in redraft.Negative factors include the 52% career catch percentage, the missed games, and the game to game inconsistency. In non-ppr scoring last year, he had eight of 14 games where he scored single digits fantasy points.Calvin Johnson 16 gms 150 targets (9.4 per game) 78 catches 52.0% for 1170 yards 15.0 ypc and 8 TDs

Good stuff.I had no idea his catch percentage was that bad. Wow.

ZWK · Jun 2, 2010

rzrback77 said:
I think that Calvin Johnson is one of those guys where his perceived ability and dynasty ranking leads to a misplaced redraft ranking. Consider that he has had three NFL seasons with the following statistics:07 15 gms 95 targets 48 catches 50.5% for 756 yards 15.8 ypc 4 TDs and FBG year end rank (non-ppr) of WR 3508 16 gms 151 targets 78 catches 51.7% for 1331 yards 17.1 ypc 12 TDs & FBG year end rank (non-ppr) of WR 309 14 gms 137 targets 73 catches 53.3% for 984 yards 14.7 ypc 5 TDs and FBG year end rank (non-ppr) of WR 21Compare the above stats with his current ADP of WR5 and 17 overall. They just don't match up. I really think that Calvin Johnson is an exciting player and capable of extraordinary production, but to me he is just not worth the risk as the WR5.

Over the past 2 years, Calvin Johnson is WR 7 in total fantasy scoring, behind only AJ, Fitz, Moss, White, Wayne, and Marshall (ppg he's also 7th, with Boldin replacing Wayne). And only AJ & Fitz have had a better fantasy season than his 2008. So WR 5 is pretty much in line with his production.The 30 games he's played over the past 2 seasons were on pace for 77/1235/9 over 16 games. Over his last 8 games last season, he was similarly on pace for 86/1264/8. Those seem about right: I'll say 80 rec, 1250 yd, 9 td. And he still has some upside over that, given his talent, his 2008 performance, signs of improvement in Detroit, and the fact that he and his QB are just going into their 4th and 2nd seasons.

Iwannabeacowboybaby! · Jun 2, 2010

I think this guy has all the athletic ability in the world. However, I saw something last year during the season I didn't like seeing and that his Calvin hanging his head after numerous plays that didn't go according to plan. I don't like to see that out of a player. I'm not saying it's easy to play on a team like the Lions but I can assure you body language is extremely important and still shows me that this guy has a lot of maturing to do mentally to be an elite receiver in this league consisently.

I am going to project a more modest year for Johnson, although I think he has the ability to do more.

77 catches 1099 yards and 8 tds

Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit Lions (1 Viewer)

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