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Vincent Jackson, WR, San Diego Chargers (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

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Thread Topic: Vincent Jackson, WR, San Diego Chargers

Player Page Link: Vincent Jackson Player Page

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75 receptions, 1230 yards and 8 td's

3 rushes for 25 yards

Vincent Jackson is a deep threat, capable of bringing down the ball with a defender on him. He uses his body well to shield off the defender. Rivers has definately called upon him as his go to guy over the past couple years, taking over that role from A. Gates. I project another top 10 season for Vincent Jackson, scoop him up.

 
I don't know if it will have an impact on his season, but I heard that he had some DUIs on his record, and still hasn't be punished by the NFL. Is he liable to be suspended for any part of the upcoming year?

Barring that, I like VJax to have a great year as he and Gates are both dominant in the passing game.

72/1250/8

 
Raiderfan32904 said:
I don't know if it will have an impact on his season, but I heard that he had some DUIs on his record, and still hasn't be punished by the NFL. Is he liable to be suspended for any part of the upcoming year?

Barring that, I like VJax to have a great year as he and Gates are both dominant in the passing game.

72/1250/8
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From Joe's email just this morning (which was detailing the contract situation, not the DUI situation specifically):Fantasy owners should keep an eye on Jackson's situation, but draft him as if he'll be in camp and get a new deal. Jackson is still possibly going to be suspended for his guilty plea to a DUI this February.

It's difficult to do projections on a guy that may face a suspension - especially if he holds out of any camp leading into the suspension.

 
DoubleG said:
Raiderfan32904 said:
I don't know if it will have an impact on his season, but I heard that he had some DUIs on his record, and still hasn't be punished by the NFL. Is he liable to be suspended for any part of the upcoming year?

Barring that, I like VJax to have a great year as he and Gates are both dominant in the passing game.

72/1250/8
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From Joe's email just this morning (which was detailing the contract situation, not the DUI situation specifically):Fantasy owners should keep an eye on Jackson's situation, but draft him as if he'll be in camp and get a new deal. Jackson is still possibly going to be suspended for his guilty plea to a DUI this February.

It's difficult to do projections on a guy that may face a suspension - especially if he holds out of any camp leading into the suspension.
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ESPN AFC West Blogger Bill Williamson had this to say last week:
David from Hollywood, Fla., wants to know if there is any word about a possible suspension for San Diego star receiver Vincent Jackson stemming from his pleading guilty to a DUI, his second guilty plea to a DUI in four years, this offseason.

Bill Williamson: I expect Jackson to get suspended. I’d expect it to be announced at any time. There is no rush, but I think both Jackson and the Chargers are expecting him to be punished. If I had to guess, I’d say he is probably going to get a four-game suspension to start the season. The Chargers will miss him. Jackson is a dynamic part of San Diego’s offense.
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Jared Allen only got suspended 2 games for 3(?) DUIs, so they're going to have a hard time justifying more than that

 
Assuming he doesnt get suspended, i think Jackson will have a career year.

83 rec. 1341 yards, 12 TD's

 
I don't share the same optimism about Jackson's upside. Last year the San Diego passing game got plenty of work, as Rivers threw for 4254 yards and 28 TDs. Jackson was the only receiver on the team to clear 50 catches, 800 yards and 3 TDs. Granted, Gates eats up a chunk of production (going for 79, 1157 and 8 in '09). My point is that to project an increase in stats for VJax either requires the belief that the passing game will be more prolific, or that it'll remain the same but he'll get a bigger piece of the pie. I don't think it's realistic to project 4500+ yards and 35+ passing TDs in '10, especially since the Chargers added Ryan Mathews and Norv is on the record claiming that Mathews will be handed a hefty load. I bring up the above numbers to show that VJax already got a fairly large share of the passing pie, so I don't think the numbers will tilt even more in his favor. VJax is a good, big play WR, but I think he tops out at around 70 for 1200 and 8, and I'll project a slight decrease of '09 as I think the Bolts are more committed to and successful at running the ball:

63 catches, 1048 yards, 8 TDs.

Solid numbers, but I'd take my chances with Colston, Steve Smith (Car), or Jennings (all guys near his ADP), especially in PPR leagues.

 
bigmiiiiike said:
I don't share the same optimism about Jackson's upside. Last year the San Diego passing game got plenty of work, as Rivers threw for 4254 yards and 28 TDs. Jackson was the only receiver on the team to clear 50 catches, 800 yards and 3 TDs. Granted, Gates eats up a chunk of production (going for 79, 1157 and 8 in '09). My point is that to project an increase in stats for VJax either requires the belief that the passing game will be more prolific, or that it'll remain the same but he'll get a bigger piece of the pie. I don't think it's realistic to project 4500+ yards and 35+ passing TDs in '10, especially since the Chargers added Ryan Mathews and Norv is on the record claiming that Mathews will be handed a hefty load. I bring up the above numbers to show that VJax already got a fairly large share of the passing pie, so I don't think the numbers will tilt even more in his favor. VJax is a good, big play WR, but I think he tops out at around 70 for 1200 and 8, and I'll project a slight decrease of '09 as I think the Bolts are more committed to and successful at running the ball: 63 catches, 1048 yards, 8 TDs. Solid numbers, but I'd take my chances with Colston, Steve Smith (Car), or Jennings (all guys near his ADP), especially in PPR leagues.
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I think having Mathews will not only help the running game, but the passing game. Tomlinsons running, or lack of it cost the Chargers some drives. A better running game will keep the Chargers offense on the field. However, i dont think the Chargers will be a "running" team. This is Rivers team now, and he will continue to put up big numbers. I dont see a huge increase in his passing totals from last year, but 4500 and 30-32 TD's seems reasonable. As far as the distribution of those passing numbers, VJax should continue to get a big piece of the pie. I dont see a WR on that team who is capable of more than 50 catches or 800 yards. Obviously Gates will continue to get his, but i think his numbers drop off slightly. The one category i expect Jackson to improve in is TD's. I think the Chargers will pass a bit more near the goalline with LT gone and a rookie RB taking his place.I dont think your projections are that far off, and i also dont think you can go wrong with Jennings or Colston. My biggest problem with those two though is their QB's love to spread the ball around so their production will be less consistent. Steve Smith is a good option too, and you can probably get him a round later.
 
Posted by Roto July 9 12:25pm:

"With a reduced RFA tender offer on the table, Mike Florio of PFT is speculating that Vincent Jackson may miss the first 10 games of the season."

 
Given the very strong likelyhood that VJax would miss 10 weeks, then sit another 3 games on suspension, I have a question.

Is anyone even spending a flier pick on him anymore in redraft anymore?

 
Raiderfan32904 said:
Given the very strong likelyhood that VJax would miss 10 weeks, then sit another 3 games on suspension, I have a question.

Is anyone even spending a flier pick on him anymore in redraft anymore?
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The suspension is weeks 1-3 regardless of whether he's holding out or not. The latest he'll be back is week 10, and I'd personally be shocked if it comes to that. Something will give. It may not be until that suspension is over, but something will give. If I had to make a guess, I'd guess that Jackson will,be traded at some point. Likely for a 2nd rounder and a conditional future pick.As far as redrafts go, I have no idea why he'd go undrafted in anything but the shallowest of leagues. i'd much rather take a flier on Jackson than Terrell Owens, and he's currently being drafted in leagues. Hell, I'd still take Jackson over plenty of starters in the league. his upside is well worth worth a flier, even in the unlikely scenario that he only plays 6 games.

 
ffguru56 said:
Posted by Roto July 9 12:25pm:"With a reduced RFA tender offer on the table, Mike Florio of PFT is speculating that Vincent Jackson may miss the first 10 games of the season."
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What a waste. One of the main reasons I am haven't been in dynasties the last few years, you can dodge bullets like this. In a redraft, you simply scratch him off the list.In leagues where you have a ton of roster space, ya you can draft him late and sit him. In the leagues I'm in we just don't have the space with bye weeks and other injuries to let a guy sit all year long and think you'll be competitive along the way. I don't like leagues where I could draft a guy and let him sit 10 weeks, I like waiver wires where you have a little something to choose from.
 
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travdogg said:
Raiderfan32904 said:
Given the very strong likelyhood that VJax would miss 10 weeks, then sit another 3 games on suspension, I have a question.

Is anyone even spending a flier pick on him anymore in redraft anymore?
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The suspension is weeks 1-3 regardless of whether he's holding out or not. The latest he'll be back is week 10, and I'd personally be shocked if it comes to that. Something will give. It may not be until that suspension is over, but something will give. If I had to make a guess, I'd guess that Jackson will,be traded at some point. Likely for a 2nd rounder and a conditional future pick.As far as redrafts go, I have no idea why he'd go undrafted in anything but the shallowest of leagues. i'd much rather take a flier on Jackson than Terrell Owens, and he's currently being drafted in leagues. Hell, I'd still take Jackson over plenty of starters in the league. his upside is well worth worth a flier, even in the unlikely scenario that he only plays 6 games.
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It is my understanding that he will only be suspended if he is under contract in weeks 1 thru 3. He would start his suspension as soon he is under contract, whenever that is. I highly doubt that AJ will trade him for the going rate that others are willing to offer, which is low. He could be worth a very late round flier, I agree with this. But I'd consider the season a practical loss if he doesn't get traded by the start of the year.
 
WR Vincent Jackson could sit out entire season.

San Diego Chargers WR Vincent Jackson might have to make a decision on whether to sit out the entire season by Week 7, according to NFL Network's Jason La Canfora. If Jackson waits until the 10th week to sign, he could be placed on a roster exempt list, meaning he would then not have the required six regular season games required to earn an accrued season. Jackson would then have to sign by Week 7 to be certain.

Source -- Jason La Canfora - NFL Network

 
Currently, this is where Jackson sits in terms of ADP:

36 - Rice

39 - Boldin

40 - Smith

43 - Smith

45 - Jackson

46 - Ochocinco

51 - Crabtree

53 - Sims-Walker

54 - Nicks

I would personally put him in between Rice and Boldin without the suspension, which means people are discounting his production by half a round. I don't see a real bargain there, but it's not terrible. His last two years production average 1133/8, or 71/0.5 per game. For 13 games, that's 920/7. For my money, I'd pull the trigger on Nicks before Jackson, but not MSW or Crabtree. I would still prefer to see him slip some to be compelled to take him. Here's why - my biggest issue with drafting guys "for value" when they're slated for a suspension in the beginning of the season is that your first few games are divisional ones, and you really need to be at full strength for them. That said, I tend to be a little more conservative in situations like these. Given the current flow of ADP, he's certainly sitting in a WR phase of the draft (my pattern seems to be RB/WR/QB/WR from the early slots this year), so his value is something to keep an eye on, and it will be interesting to see how it fluctuates.

ETA that I'm of the opinion that there will be no hold-out, and these numbers reflect that...if that wasn't clear already.

 
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IMO much of the speculation and conjecture over a perceived timeline for a holdout is based on pure posturing, at this point. Nonetheless, with the suspension and potential for a holdout, Jackson's fantasy value is dropping, especially in redraft leagues.

Floyd, who finished last season with a 9 reception, 140 yard performance against Washington, could rise to the occasion during Jackson's absence. Although he only found the endzone once last season, that may have had more to do with his role than his ability. He is a tall, lanky target, and durability may be a concern.

The player who could benefit most during Jackson's absence is Legedu Naanee. He passes the eye test, and I think he may be ready to assume a larger role with the team. Naanee has good hands and athleticism and led the team in YAC yards last season.

 
as impossible as it is to do, I have tried to put myself in VJ's shoes and think about what I would do....

at some point, I think I would realize that my decisions have put me in a pretty tough spot......I am pretty good and I want to get paid accordingly but I have also caused some of my own problems.....and I am kind of making things worse by threatening a hold out and now in addition to bad decisons I start looking like a doosh bag.....I know I need to think about my future and I could get hurt after signing a wimpy contract and my career/life will not be as good if that happens....but it is kind of hypocritical for me to say I need to think about my future now, after I have made some bad decisions that could also affect my future....I am only another mistake away from a long suspension......

might be time to turn this ship in a positive direction, renogiate back up somehwere close to the original tender, sign the one year deal, take the hit to my ego, hope I don't get hurt and cash in the next year after I have improved my image by stepping up and taking my medicine for a year......

just don't see how after everything that has happened, how holding out for even one game could be a good move....

I know it's a business, but.......................C'MON MAN! (said in best Michael Irvin voice)

 
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Stinkin Ref said:
as impossible as it is to do, I have tried to put myself in VJ's shoes and think about what I would do....at some point, I think I would realize that my decisions have put me in a pretty tough spot......I am pretty good and I want to get paid accordingly but I have also caused some of my own problems.....and I am kind of making things worse by threatening a hold out and now in addition to bad decisons I start looking like a doosh bag.....I know I need to think about my future and I could get hurt after signing a wimpy contract and my career/life will not be as good if that happens....but it is kind of hypocritical for me to say I need to think about my future now, after I have made some bad decisions that could also affect my future....I am only another mistake away from a long suspension......might be time to turn this ship in a positive direction, renogiate back up somehwere close to the original tender, sign the one year deal, take the hit to my ego, hope I don't get hurt and cash in the next year after I have improved my image by stepping up and taking my medicine for a year......just don't see how after everything that has happened, how holding out for even one game could be a good move....I know it's a business, but.......................C'MON MAN! (said in best Michael Irvin voice)
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Exactly. 99 times out of 100 sanity prevails. Maybe Jackson will be the rare player who sits out the whole season. But I wouldn't bet on it.These guys like money...but they also have ego's. Yeah, Jackson MIGHT get hurt and see his value go down.But what if he takes his lumps, plays the final 13 games, and has a truly dominant year. THEN his next contract looks REALLY good.That's what people aren't understanding about this situation. It's not just that he's going to make X number of dollars per game in 2010. It's that if he has a great year, he's going to get a ton more money next year than he will if he sits out the entire season.
 
JohnnyU said:
WR Vincent Jackson could sit out entire season. San Diego Chargers WR Vincent Jackson might have to make a decision on whether to sit out the entire season by Week 7, according to NFL Network's Jason La Canfora. If Jackson waits until the 10th week to sign, he could be placed on a roster exempt list, meaning he would then not have the required six regular season games required to earn an accrued season. Jackson would then have to sign by Week 7 to be certain. Source -- Jason La Canfora - NFL Network
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From what I understand, he'll know before the season, after the second preseason game I think, whether the Chargers will apply the roster exemption.
 
JohnnyU said:
WR Vincent Jackson could sit out entire season.

San Diego Chargers WR Vincent Jackson might have to make a decision on whether to sit out the entire season by Week 7, according to NFL Network's Jason La Canfora. If Jackson waits until the 10th week to sign, he could be placed on a roster exempt list, meaning he would then not have the required six regular season games required to earn an accrued season. Jackson would then have to sign by Week 7 to be certain.

Source -- Jason La Canfora - NFL Network
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The Chargers will almost certainly put him on the roster exempt list (so that VJ doesn't count against the 53-man roster limit while he's un-signed). They'd have to notify him of the decision around the time of the second preseason game, I think. That means he'd have to sit out three games (without pay) after reporting. (That's what happened to Antonio Gates a few years back: he had to sit out the last two preseason games plus the first regular season game.)I don't think that really affects when VJ would play his first game. If he wants to get six games in for an accrued season, he'd report in week seven. That would be a good thing for his fantasy owners (and the Chargers), because it would allow VJ to practice with the team for three weeks before having to jump into game action. He may not care about getting an accrued season, though, since he already has five of them.

One thing that really hurts the chance that VJ will play at all this year is the report that VJ will be able to serve his suspension while he isn't under contract. The biggest reason for him to report by week ten this season was to allow him to serve his suspension at ~$35K per game instead of serving it when he's making more like $800K per game. If it's true that he can serve his suspension this season whether he signs a contract or not, that increases the chance that he won't sign or report at all.

Right now, the tender that is currently being offered is for about $600K. (It is $583K according to an article quoted in another thread.) Assuming it is $583K, he'd make $480K if he reports in August compared to $274K if he reports in time to play in November — a difference of just $206K. That makes it pretty likely, IMO, that if he plays at all this year, it won't be until November.

There is still a chance he'll be traded, although that's not very likely IMO.

There is also still a chance that the Chargers will offer him $3–$4 million this year if he reports before the season starts. It's no sure thing that VJ would play for that amount (since he's already declined to play for $3.29 million), and even if he would, there's no guarantee that the Chargers would offer it (since they've already withdrawn the $3.29 million offer). But it is possible.

Overall, it's not looking good, IMO. If you combine (a) the fact that VJ can serve his suspension without reporting at all with (b) the fact that he likely doesn't need an accrued season since he already has five of them, there is a real chance that he won't report at all this season.

 
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Maurile, I see what you're saying here, and from one perspective, it might not make sense to play this year.

However, I'm of the opinion that if he renegotiates his tender back to the 3M+, serves his suspension, plays 13 games, and has a huge season......than he'll get a MUCH higher contract than if he sits out the entire season.

Yes there is risk involved, but there's always risk in football.

I think he's COSTING himself money by NOT playing this year. The NFL is fickle, and who knows what the next 2 years brings. Lots of good WR's coming into the league next year. I just don't see any NFL team pony up for Brandon Marshall-type money. I mean, if they were going to...than wouldn't we have seen a trade by now? And if he can't get that kind of interest now, than there is no WAY he's going to get that kind of interest after he sits on the bench for a year. It would be a terrible decision.

The one interesting thing to see is whether a trade could possibly happen now that the suspension is finally 100% official.

 
shader said:
Maurile, I see what you're saying here, and from one perspective, it might not make sense to play this year.However, I'm of the opinion that if he renegotiates his tender back to the 3M+, serves his suspension, plays 13 games, and has a huge season......than he'll get a MUCH higher contract than if he sits out the entire season.Yes there is risk involved, but there's always risk in football.I think he's COSTING himself money by NOT playing this year. The NFL is fickle, and who knows what the next 2 years brings. Lots of good WR's coming into the league next year. I just don't see any NFL team pony up for Brandon Marshall-type money. I mean, if they were going to...than wouldn't we have seen a trade by now? And if he can't get that kind of interest now, than there is no WAY he's going to get that kind of interest after he sits on the bench for a year. It would be a terrible decision.The one interesting thing to see is whether a trade could possibly happen now that the suspension is finally 100% official.
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I think he risks a lot more by playing then not playing. I wouldn't play for the money they'd be paying him either. Football is way too violent to risk your body for that amount of money. Javon Walker comes to mind. He would cost himself a lot more by getting hurt than he'd stand to increase his stock by playing well.
 
One thing I'm not sure of: if VJ sits out the whole year, can the Chargers franchise him next season? It depends on what the new CBA says (if there is one). (The current CBA would say that he'd be a restricted free agent again, so there'd be no need to franchise him; but I'm assuming that VJ would be an unrestricted free agent under a new CBA.)

 
shader said:
I just don't see any NFL team pony up for Brandon Marshall-type money. I mean, if they were going to...than wouldn't we have seen a trade by now?
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I don't know. Marshall was traded for two second-round picks. I'm not sure the Chargers would accept that right now, since they could probably get two second-rounders next April for him after he helps them in the playoffs this year (assuming he reports at all this season).If the Chargers could get roughly the same compensation for him now that they could get next April, why not trade him next April — and get his playoff services in the meantime?The risk the Chargers would take by not trading him now is that VJ could sit out the whole year, and then possibly not be subject to the franchise tag next season. Or even if he is subject to the franchise tag, the Chargers may want to use it on McNeill or Merriman instead. Nonetheless, I don't think you can infer from the fact that the Chargers haven't already traded VJ, that no team would be willing to pony up Brandon Marshall money for him.
 
Maurile Tremblay said:
shader said:
I just don't see any NFL team pony up for Brandon Marshall-type money. I mean, if they were going to...than wouldn't we have seen a trade by now?
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I don't know. Marshall was traded for two second-round picks. I'm not sure the Chargers would accept that right now, since they could probably get two second-rounders next April for him after he helps them in the playoffs this year (assuming he reports at all this season).If the Chargers could get roughly the same compensation for him now that they could get next April, why not trade him next April — and get his playoff services in the meantime?

The risk the Chargers would take by not trading him now is that VJ could sit out the whole year, and then possibly not be subject to the franchise tag next season. Or even if he is subject to the franchise tag, the Chargers may want to use it on McNeill or Merriman instead. Nonetheless, I don't think you can infer from the fact that the Chargers haven't already traded VJ, that no team would be willing to pony up Brandon Marshall money for him.
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hey homer......jumping the gun here a little.....?...lol......I don't think it's a lock they make the playoffs even if he signs tomorrow......although the schedule looks pretty cake.....
 
Maurile Tremblay said:
shader said:
I just don't see any NFL team pony up for Brandon Marshall-type money. I mean, if they were going to...than wouldn't we have seen a trade by now?
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I don't know. Marshall was traded for two second-round picks. I'm not sure the Chargers would accept that right now, since they could probably get two second-rounders next April for him after he helps them in the playoffs this year (assuming he reports at all this season).If the Chargers could get roughly the same compensation for him now that they could get next April, why not trade him next April — and get his playoff services in the meantime?The risk the Chargers would take by not trading him now is that VJ could sit out the whole year, and then possibly not be subject to the franchise tag next season. Or even if he is subject to the franchise tag, the Chargers may want to use it on McNeill or Merriman instead. Nonetheless, I don't think you can infer from the fact that the Chargers haven't already traded VJ, that no team would be willing to pony up Brandon Marshall money for him.
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I just don't think his value is the same now as it would be next year after a year-long sitout.I guess if he comes back and dominates in the last 2-3 games and the playoffs, than it's possible...But, my opinion is that if a guy is willing to sit out that many games, that he would be a big turn-off to a potential organization.
 
fruity pebbles said:
shader said:
Maurile, I see what you're saying here, and from one perspective, it might not make sense to play this year.However, I'm of the opinion that if he renegotiates his tender back to the 3M+, serves his suspension, plays 13 games, and has a huge season......than he'll get a MUCH higher contract than if he sits out the entire season.Yes there is risk involved, but there's always risk in football.I think he's COSTING himself money by NOT playing this year. The NFL is fickle, and who knows what the next 2 years brings. Lots of good WR's coming into the league next year. I just don't see any NFL team pony up for Brandon Marshall-type money. I mean, if they were going to...than wouldn't we have seen a trade by now? And if he can't get that kind of interest now, than there is no WAY he's going to get that kind of interest after he sits on the bench for a year. It would be a terrible decision.The one interesting thing to see is whether a trade could possibly happen now that the suspension is finally 100% official.
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I think he risks a lot more by playing then not playing. I wouldn't play for the money they'd be paying him either. Football is way too violent to risk your body for that amount of money. Javon Walker comes to mind. He would cost himself a lot more by getting hurt than he'd stand to increase his stock by playing well.
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By that logic, every NFL player should refuse to play once they have a contract not "worth their time". Chris Johnson should just play the minimum amount of games every year until he's a free agent, just in case...And I think if VJ caves in, he'll be able to renegotiate and get the 3M dollars again, which is well worth playing for.
 
shader said:
fruity pebbles said:
shader said:
Maurile, I see what you're saying here, and from one perspective, it might not make sense to play this year.However, I'm of the opinion that if he renegotiates his tender back to the 3M+, serves his suspension, plays 13 games, and has a huge season......than he'll get a MUCH higher contract than if he sits out the entire season.Yes there is risk involved, but there's always risk in football.I think he's COSTING himself money by NOT playing this year. The NFL is fickle, and who knows what the next 2 years brings. Lots of good WR's coming into the league next year. I just don't see any NFL team pony up for Brandon Marshall-type money. I mean, if they were going to...than wouldn't we have seen a trade by now? And if he can't get that kind of interest now, than there is no WAY he's going to get that kind of interest after he sits on the bench for a year. It would be a terrible decision.The one interesting thing to see is whether a trade could possibly happen now that the suspension is finally 100% official.
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I think he risks a lot more by playing then not playing. I wouldn't play for the money they'd be paying him either. Football is way too violent to risk your body for that amount of money. Javon Walker comes to mind. He would cost himself a lot more by getting hurt than he'd stand to increase his stock by playing well.
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By that logic, every NFL player should refuse to play once they have a contract not "worth their time". Chris Johnson should just play the minimum amount of games every year until he's a free agent, just in case...And I think if VJ caves in, he'll be able to renegotiate and get the 3M dollars again, which is well worth playing for.
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That's pretty much what cj is doing. But very different situations.
 
-jb- said:
Currently, this is where Jackson sits in terms of ADP:

36 - Rice

39 - Boldin

40 - Smith

43 - Smith

45 - Jackson

46 - Ochocinco

51 - Crabtree

53 - Sims-Walker

54 - Nicks

I would personally put him in between Rice and Boldin without the suspension, which means people are discounting his production by half a round. I don't see a real bargain there, but it's not terrible. His last two years production average 1133/8, or 71/0.5 per game. For 13 games, that's 920/7. For my money, I'd pull the trigger on Nicks before Jackson, but not MSW or Crabtree. I would still prefer to see him slip some to be compelled to take him. Here's why - my biggest issue with drafting guys "for value" when they're slated for a suspension in the beginning of the season is that your first few games are divisional ones, and you really need to be at full strength for them. That said, I tend to be a little more conservative in situations like these. Given the current flow of ADP, he's certainly sitting in a WR phase of the draft (my pattern seems to be RB/WR/QB/WR from the early slots this year), so his value is something to keep an eye on, and it will be interesting to see how it fluctuates.

ETA that I'm of the opinion that there will be no hold-out, and these numbers reflect that...if that wasn't clear already.
Click to expand...
I would say that might be his ADP if your adding up all his drafts before all this holdout talk and now. He was going in the late 2nd/early 3rd round before he refused to sign his tender. Then he dropped to around the 5th/6th round now with the suspsension he is now dropping even lower.I have been in 4 drafts in the past month he went in the 5th/early 6th round about 3 weeks ago now he is going in the late 6th round

Around pick 70 now, and that is probably too high.

 
shader said:
And I think if VJ caves in, he'll be able to renegotiate and get the 3M dollars again, which is well worth playing for.
Click to expand...
$3 million seems like a lot to play for. You or I would jump at the chance. I don't think VJax would have turned down the $3 Million on June 15 if he wasn't serious, especially consider that $3 million is about 6 times the salary he made last year. How many of us would quit our job if the boss just decided to multiply the salary by 6? Jackson has passed the precipice, and playing chicken with AJ is a no win proposition. He means to hold out the entire year. Those of you who say it can't happen, that $3 million is too much to walk away from, all the other valid reasons aren't facing the greater truth. VJax wont play for $3.2 million, and AJ will probably not put it back on the table out of principle. You got an unstoppable force meeting an immovable object. So a lot of people say, "I'll believe it when I see it". That's just denial. Look at the facts and trust that VJax is fantasy irrelevant for 2010. Chargers are probably better off letting VJax go. He's one more foulup from a much larger suspension. His off field issues don't make him worth Brandon Marshall money. As talented as he is, there are a ton of young receivers entering the league that would love to be primary targets of an elite QB like Rivers. VJax is hardheaded and really is misreading his market value.
 
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HenryMuto said:
-jb- said:
Currently, this is where Jackson sits in terms of ADP:

36 - Rice

39 - Boldin

40 - Smith

43 - Smith

45 - Jackson

46 - Ochocinco

51 - Crabtree

53 - Sims-Walker

54 - Nicks

I would personally put him in between Rice and Boldin without the suspension, which means people are discounting his production by half a round. I don't see a real bargain there, but it's not terrible. His last two years production average 1133/8, or 71/0.5 per game. For 13 games, that's 920/7. For my money, I'd pull the trigger on Nicks before Jackson, but not MSW or Crabtree. I would still prefer to see him slip some to be compelled to take him. Here's why - my biggest issue with drafting guys "for value" when they're slated for a suspension in the beginning of the season is that your first few games are divisional ones, and you really need to be at full strength for them. That said, I tend to be a little more conservative in situations like these. Given the current flow of ADP, he's certainly sitting in a WR phase of the draft (my pattern seems to be RB/WR/QB/WR from the early slots this year), so his value is something to keep an eye on, and it will be interesting to see how it fluctuates.

ETA that I'm of the opinion that there will be no hold-out, and these numbers reflect that...if that wasn't clear already.
Click to expand...
I would say that might be his ADP if your adding up all his drafts before all this holdout talk and now. He was going in the late 2nd/early 3rd round before he refused to sign his tender. Then he dropped to around the 5th/6th round now with the suspsension he is now dropping even lower.I have been in 4 drafts in the past month he went in the 5th/early 6th round about 3 weeks ago now he is going in the late 6th round

Around pick 70 now, and that is probably too high.
Click to expand...
Good info, and good point. Thx.
 
hey homer......jumping the gun here a little.....?...lol......I don't think it's a lock they make the playoffs even if he signs tomorrow......although the schedule looks pretty cake.....
Click to expand...
Even if he sits out the year they are pretty much a lock to win that awful division. Who is beating them ? KC ? Oak ? Den ?KC and Oak are plain awful and Denver had a huge lead and still blew it the last 2 years.
 
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Maurile Tremblay said:
Or even if he is subject to the franchise tag, the Chargers may want to use it on McNeill or Merriman instead.
Click to expand...
That would be a terrible allocation of resources by AJ given the play of McNeil and Merriman over the past couple of seasons, but after deciding to tag Sproles twice after deciding not to tag Turner I guess anything is possible.
 
Stinkin Ref said:
hey homer......jumping the gun here a little.....?...lol......I don't think it's a lock they make the playoffs even if he signs tomorrow......although the schedule looks pretty cake.....
Click to expand...
I agree with you that SD isn't a lock for the playoffs but the bigger point in my opinion is that SD won't be a SB contender if they can't win the AFC West without Jackson for part of the year. For the past several seasons the talent on the SD roster has eroded imo, though I'm sure Norv Turner will get most of the blame for any losses as usual.
 
HenryMuto said:
hey homer......jumping the gun here a little.....?...lol......I don't think it's a lock they make the playoffs even if he signs tomorrow......although the schedule looks pretty cake.....
Click to expand...
Even if he sits out the year they are pretty much a lock to win that awful division. Who is beating them ? KC ? Oak ? Den ?KC and Oak are plain awful and Denver had a huge lead and still blew it the last 2 years.
Click to expand...
The Raiders had wins over Philly, Cincy, Pitt, and Denver last year. They lost twice to the Chargers by a combined 12 points. And they don't have JaMarcus Russell anymore, which is good for a few wins alone. They may not win a ton of games in 2010, but I don't think they'll be an embarrassment either.
 
per fyifootballplay (an NFL news feeder on Twitter):

San Diego #Chargers have sent letters to WR Vincent Jackson & T Marcus McNeill informing them of the team's intent to place them on the Roster Exempt List if they don't sign their RFA tenders by August 20.

 
I'm trying to figure out why AJ won't trade him. In all likely hood, he won't play this year. I bet AJ has something up his sleeve.

Thanks todisco1.

 
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Chargers place more pressure on McNeill, Jackson

Posted by Mike Florio on August 13, 2010 7:10 PM ET

For a team that has declared two of its key players "lost," it's sure doing a hell of a lot to try to find them.

Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that the Chargers have advised left tackle Marcus McNeill and receiver Vincent Jackson that, if they fail to report by August 20, they'll be placed on the roster-exempt list, which means that they'll be ineligible to play for three games after they sign their restricted free agency tenders -- if/when they sign them.

The move, as a practical matter, compels McNeill and Jackson to sign their restricted free agency tenders three weeks earlier that Week 10 in order to receive credit for 2010 and to become unrestricted free agents in 2011, depending on the new rules of the labor agreement.

And it means that they'll be involved in three weeks of practice before the first of their final six games, if they intend to hold out as long as they possibly can.

It's a smart tactic by the Chargers, even if it tends to expose the reality that G.M. A.J. Smith was simply blowing hot air when pronouncing his expectation that they players were gone for good. Then again, it's not like anyone believed him in the first place.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/...cneill-jackson/

 
Haven't we discussed the fact that Jackson doesn't really need credit for 2010? What does this letter REALLY do?

 
Most people assume that V Jackson will play if he comes back in week 7-10. I disagree. The starters will be established and it is likely that he will not play in 2011 for the Chargers. Why would they force out the starters at that time?

If he sits until week 7 or 10, expect very few reps unless there are injuries.

 
Velveeta22 said:
Most people assume that V Jackson will play if he comes back in week 7-10. I disagree. The starters will be established and it is likely that he will not play in 2011 for the Chargers. Why would they force out the starters at that time?If he sits until week 7 or 10, expect very few reps unless there are injuries.
Click to expand...
you play to win the games. If vjax comes back week 3 or 7 or 10 you bet your add tht Norv plays him and Phil throws him the ball
 
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