Jason Witten, TE, Dallas Cowboys (1 Viewer)

2010 Player Spotlight Series

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Thread Topic: Jason Witten, TE, Dallas Cowboys

Player Page Link: Jason Witten Player Page

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[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

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[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

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Witten's first 4 years as a starter- 6, 6, 1, 7 TDs- made him a stud TE. The 1 TD in 2006 looked like an aberration and after a 96/1145/7 2007 he was looking like a perennial top 3 TE. Since then he has had only 4, 2 TDs despite keeping up his quality targets, catch and yardage totals. In PPR leagues, especially 1.5x TE ppr he is still a stud but in non-ppr he seems overvalued with Gates, Clark and Gonzo still producing, Davis blowing up last year and several young TEs (Finley, Celek, Carlson, Olsen, Shiancoe, Miller) who can put up similar numbers I don't see any reason to target Witten high.

80 / 950 / 5 TDs

pretty much the stats from 08... last yr was a very good yr with 91 for 1050 but I'm going to temper my expections

My question......Where's the TDs?

Seems Witten is a lost soul near the goalline, where DAL uses the WRs and RBs more. But still, a solid option in a PPR format, but I wouldn't overpay for him.

75 rec, 850 yds receiving, 4 TD

fightingillini said:

My question......Where's the TDs?Seems Witten is a lost soul near the goalline, where DAL uses the WRs and RBs more. But still, a solid option in a PPR format, but I wouldn't overpay for him.75 rec, 850 yds receiving, 4 TD

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In six years as a starter Witten has ~ 980, 750, 750, 950, 1150, 1030 yards- 850 would be a significant drop in his average for his career and an even larger drop over the last 3 years (averaging 1040 per year over 3 years). Williams and Crayton combined for 1200/12 TDs yards last season so there is plenty of room for Dex to produce at a high level for a rookie (say 800/6) without having to assume a 200 yard drop off for Williams as well. They were also 14th in points and 6th in passing yards so there is some room for total offensive output as well should Dez be a Boldin-esque rookie stud.

When looking at Jason Witten's production for 2010, there are two very important considerations. The first ia whether the emergence of Miles Austin and the drafting of Dez Bryant will reduce Witten's targets. The second is since there are abundant productive TE options, does your league scoring system tilt the TE receptions such as Witten warrants early drafting.

In FBG (non-ppr) scoring Witten has finished 3, 6, 12, 1, 2 and 8 over the lasy six seasons. His targets in the last three years have gone 141, 121, and 124. When considering his targets for 2010, will they remain in the same range or decrease? I see no hope for an increase, so I would go with 120 as the high end. One positive is that he has only missed one game and that was when he was a rookie in 03.

As noted previously, his TDs have been on the low side compared to the number of targets and receptions, and as he ages (only 28 going into this year), the TDs should not increase. Particularly with the abundance of Cowboy receiving options.

Unless your league awards ppr, particularly 1.5 or 2.0 ppr for TEs, i think that Witten will not rise back to the top of the TEs and since his current ADP is TE 4 and 50 overall, I will likely pass in 2010.

Jason Witten 16 gms 116 targets 80 catches 11.2 ypc 896 yds 5 TDs

TDs are always fluky... I suspect that Witten's 2009 TD total was due to the super poor O-Line play inside the 5.

But I agree with most projections here.. anymore than 5 from Witten is gravy

Jason Witten is the best all around TE in football. The guy blocks as well as he runs his routes and catches the ball. He's played in all of his games except 1 in his rookie season, the guy is a warrior.

Jason Witten has been a top tight end the last several years, so you'll have to pay a premium price to get him on one of your teams. Last year he had only 2 Td's while the year before he had 4. There are a lot of options in Dallas. They play a tough schedule and every TD he'll score will be earned.

82 receptions for 920 yards and 4 td's

Iwannabeacowboybaby! said:

Jason Witten is the best all around TE in football. The guy blocks as well as he runs his routes and catches the ball. He's played in all of his games except 1 in his rookie season, the guy is a warrior. Jason Witten has been a top tight end the last several years, so you'll have to pay a premium price to get him on one of your teams. Last year he had only 2 Td's while the year before he had 4. There are a lot of options in Dallas. They play a tough schedule and every TD he'll score will be earned.82 receptions for 920 yards and 4 td's

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I'm hoping for 6 tds.Hard-Hitten Witten...

hes a steal in PPR right now

bump for thoughts?

I see another 1000 yards and 6 TD season for Witten. I think with Austin more established as a WR this season, it will open things up for Witten. Plus Romo and Witten are best buds, so he's always get his targets.

Dallas ease of schedule is ranked 3rd for QB's and 1st for WR which makes me think he should have a good year. I think the added talent of Bryant helps Witten and opens him up a bitmore than last year.

I dunno. Owned him last year and as slow as he looked I hope it was just an injury. Seemed like he wasn't getting separation, not many YAC, etc. Lots of "go down 5 yards, turn around, catch, get hit and go down" stuff. He'll need more explosiveness to get TD's.

Gotta remember, the Cowboys ended up going with only two tight ends. I believe they wanted 3. Phillips going down may have an impact on Witten's production. I said MAY.