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Josh Freeman, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Josh Freeman, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Player Page Link: Josh Freeman Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or :shrug: ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
I think Freeman takes a huge step forward this year, but maybe not so much fantasy wise just yet.

Freeman has been at One Buc Place almost every day this offseason studying film and working out. He has the right attitude, and will do whatever it takes to be a great NFL QB. He showed great flashes last year, and with the work that he is putting in this offseason, I expect him to perform much better on a consistent basis.

The only thing holding him back IMO is the talent around him. While I love that the Bucs drafted Rejus Benn and Mike Williams (and think Williams will especially be a stud), it's not realistic to think that they will make a huge impact as rookies, even though they will probably both end up starting. Add that to the fact that the Bucs running game is average at best, Freeman doesn't have a whole lot to work with.

With that said, I do think Freeman will make the best of the weapons he does have.

3900 yards passing, 20 TDs, 14 INTs

300 rushing yards, 3 rushing TDs

 
Hot garbage.Projection: Sucks
One of the funniest projections yet. However, that should have been saved for the David Garrard thread.Freeman has a chance this year to show something. His WR crew has been significantly upgraded at least on paper. If he fails it will be blamed on young WR's first. then they will be called bust WRs and that he won't be able to showcase his vast skills until they get real WRs. Seen it before.I'll give him a chance this year.2800 18 TD's, 18 INTs' if he is really lucky. :hophead: at the 3900 yard projection.
 
3900 yards passing, 20 TDs, 14 INTs

300 rushing yards, 3 rushing TDs
2900?The Bucs as a team have never thrown for 3900 yards.
Team passing yards include sack yards lost; Bucs quarterbacks threw for over 3900 yards in '03.I think it's reasonable to project around 550 attempts for Tampa this season. Now it's not wise, IMO, to project Freeman to take every snap, since on average, quarterbacks missed 1-2 games a year. But assuming Freeman actually throws 550 passes in '10, he would only need to average 7.1 Y/A in '10. Fifteen different quarterbacks averaged 7.1 or more yards per attempt last season. It's not unreasonable to expect Freeman to make a big jump as a second year quarterback, especially considering his age (looking at other 21-year-old rookies, Alex Smith jumped from 5.3 to 6.5 Y/A from his rookie season to his second; Drew Bledsoe went from 5.8 to 6.6; lots of other 22-year-old rookies made similar improvements.)

That said, there are a ton of "ifs" there. The Bucs need to throw a lot of passes. Freeman needs to stay healthy. And Freeman needs to get a bit better. The odds of all of them happening are low, but it wouldn't surprise me if they did.

 
As Freeman goes, so go the Bucs. For such a young QB, he and the other Josh carry just 12 NFL starts among them, with no safety net of experience behind them. There is a lot of pressure on Raheem Morris and Mark Dominik to make this team a winner. The Bucs have spent the least of any team in the last 7 years. That cheapness spreads across the coaching staff with Raheem making a piddly $850K and his GM Dominik making even more pitiful $375K. Far and away the cheapest in the league. And yet both Morris and Dominik are tied at the hip to young Josh Freeman. They will ride him till he sinks the ship. If/when the team is out of contention, they probably still stick with Freeman, since they will be done as coach and GM and the writing will be on the wall for their ouster. A lot of pressure for a 22 year old kid. Maybe too much.

Raheem talks about winning championships with Freeman, after a 3 win season. He needs to tone it down some. It seems like a make or break year for the Bucs. This is not a realistic way of developing a young QB. The Bucs were among the league laggers in both run defense and most offensive categories.

In summary, I'd feel different about Freeman if he had an established coach/GM that was not on the hot seat, backed by a serious owner with serious cash. But this Freeman looks like a boom or bust. Right now, I'd lean bust. Depending on how he performs, I do like his long term value. I just think the current regime won't survive till next spring.

 
I think this guy will be a lot of people's QB sleeper this year and I'm not sold. I think the guy can make plays at times but he's very inconsistent. The argument can be made that he can improve just like any other QB who's a rookie can improve. I can't argue against that but I don't think he's got the kind of surrounding cast that will help him take that step forward. I see a guy who's going to make some big mistakes and put up some pretty average fantasy numbers overall.

3200 yards, 13 td's with 18 int's

220 rushing and 2 td's, 3 fumbles

 
3900 yards passing, 20 TDs, 14 INTs

300 rushing yards, 3 rushing TDs
2900?The Bucs as a team have never thrown for 3900 yards.
In Freeman's 9 starts last year, he averaged 204 yards per game. To get to 3900, he'd have to throw for 244 yards per game. I don't think 40 yards per game is a huge stretch when your talking about a QB going from year one to year two. I expect the Bucs to be playing catch up a lot again this year, so Freeman should get plenty of opportunities to throw the ball. And even if Freeman throws the same amount of passes per game, I expect him to be more accurate this year. Last year his completion percentage was 54.5%, and his yards per completion was 11.74 yards. If his completion percentage is 60% this year, and his yards per completion stays the same, then he would throw for 3,581 yards. Now thats if he throws for the same amount of passes per game. If he throws for just two more passes a game than he did last year at a 60% completion rate (and the yards per attempt stay the same) he'd throw for 3957 yards.

Now obviously things change and there isn't some magic formula to use to figure out how many yards someone will throw for. But I just wanted to illustrate that 3900 yards isn't that unrealistic.

One thing Freeman has going for him also, is that he is THE quarterback. The Bucs QB situation for the past several years has been like musical chairs. But barring injury, Freeman will be the starter for all 16 games. Raheem Morris' job is in the hands of Josh Freeman, and Freeman will not be benched at any point this year no matter how he plays.

 
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I love his upside long term. I think the Bucs could have an outstanding passing attack. However, this year the rookies will be cutting their teeth so some mistakes will be made. 3500 18 16 seems about right to me. Another 250-300 on the ground would be a bonus. He gets around pretty good for a big man

2011 I could see a huge step forward

 
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Josh Freeman has a lot of question marks associated with his projections for 2010. He is young and only had nine starts in his rookie season a year ago, so we don't have a solid baseline. He is on what should not be a good team in a fairly strong division. I think that New Orleans and Atlanta will both be good and Carolina has opportunities as well. He doesn't have a particularly good running game and nobody that stands solid with expectations for carrying the load. Besides Kellen Winslow, his receivers are extremely inexperienced.

The positives at least for fantasy are that they will have to throw a lot because they should be behind a lot. The running game is likely to be ineffective and the RBs have a high injury potential. He does have mobility and a strong arm, so he can add rushing yards and should hit some long plays. He will be drafted very late, his current ADP is QB 28 and 189 overall, so he will definitely be more productive than expected.

Josh Freeman should be a solid depth QB that will be capable of putting up some huge games and he should continue to play regardless of his success because he is the future and with all the rookie receivers, he will have an out with the fans and media. I think that he will be a very solid late round pick for fantasy teams in 2010.

Josh Freeman 16 gms 314 comp 524 att 3616 yards 6.9 ypa 18 TDs 22 ints 65 rushes 325 yards 5.0 ypc and 2 TDs

 
Go deep said:
3220 yards, 16 TD's, 18 int's
this is probably one of the most realistic forecasts I've seen on this board.To expect this kid to pass for over 3500 yards is unrealistic.I would have projected around 3000 yards myself. And the TD/INT ratio seems reasonable given that he may have two rookie WR's.
 
Go deep said:
3220 yards, 16 TD's, 18 int's
this is probably one of the most realistic forecasts I've seen on this board.To expect this kid to pass for over 3500 yards is unrealistic.I would have projected around 3000 yards myself. And the TD/INT ratio seems reasonable given that he may have two rookie WR's.
My first instinct was less yardage, but the Bucs will likely be playing catchup alot, and Winslow is a pretty dependable option...when healthy.
 
I like Freeman a lot but more in dynasty then for 2010 his Wr are just too young and he is young enough to still be in college himself. I like his poise and I think Benn and Williams will become good Wr but it won't be this year IMO

3400 yards 22 Td's and 17 Int's

 
I am very cautiously optimistic on Freeman this year, not just for the fact that his receiving corps is KWIII, 2 rookies, and a 2nd year slot, but if at any time his primary receiving corps consists of Reggie Brown and Michael Clayton, that will spell T-R-O-U-B-L-E.

3350 yards passing, 18 TDs, 14 INTs

265 yards rushing, 3 TDs

I am very highly invested in him, though, and am really looking here at 2011 and beyond...

 
17/26/3200 with 70/400/1 rushing.

Has nice mobility and shows some toughness. Makes poor decision at critical moments and isn't always prepared. I remember the game vs the Jets last season. First play, he stands like a tree in the pocket, no pressure, he zips the ball down the hashmark right to the Jets LB who had to leap a little for the INT. It wasn't clear who the intended receiver was. Granted, he was a rookie, but that speaks to his lack of preparation. Afterword, they all made excuses for a lacidasical Friday practice. Freeman needs to "want to" be the guy. Not sure if he has the "want to". He has some nice tools, but he needs to show me something before I invest.

 
I am very cautiously optimistic on Freeman this year, not just for the fact that his receiving corps is KWIII, 2 rookies, and a 2nd year slot, but if at any time his primary receiving corps consists of Reggie Brown and Michael Clayton, that will spell T-R-O-U-B-L-E.3350 yards passing, 18 TDs, 14 INTs265 yards rushing, 3 TDsI am very highly invested in him, though, and am really looking here at 2011 and beyond...
Can you please explain how he is only going to throw 14 ints?There is still going to be many growing pains for the Buc's offense going forward and Freemand throwing ints will be one of them.
 
I was in Florida for a conference back in December, and we were standing by the player parking lot to watch the players arrive before the stadium opened. The two last players to arrive, just over one hour before kick-off, were Kellen Winslow and Josh Freeman. Now maybe this has nothing to do with work ethic and preparation, but I feel like the starting QB should be arriving at the stadium earlier than an hour before kick-off. This turned me off Mr Freeman, and I would be very skeptical that he will have any fantasy value in most leagues.

 
I was in Florida for a conference back in December, and we were standing by the player parking lot to watch the players arrive before the stadium opened. The two last players to arrive, just over one hour before kick-off, were Kellen Winslow and Josh Freeman. Now maybe this has nothing to do with work ethic and preparation, but I feel like the starting QB should be arriving at the stadium earlier than an hour before kick-off. This turned me off Mr Freeman, and I would be very skeptical that he will have any fantasy value in most leagues.
This is hilarious on so many levels...
 

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