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Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears

Player Page Link: Matt Forte Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or :thumbup: ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
I just drafted him in one dynasty(ppr) and I'm high on him for the for seeable future. He did have 57 receptions last year and Cutler should be better this year. I don't know much about the O-line and improvements if any... but I'm thinking 1100 rushing and 65/450.

 
MrTwo94 said:
In his cumulatively awesome rookie year, he only averaged 3.9 ypc then followed it up with 3.6 ypc. He's always looked easily replaceable. His best attribute was lots of catches but now with Chester Taylor there, he may not be the best pass catching back on his team. So things are not looking up for Forte. I like to throw out projections but there are several situations where I feel it is pointless to try to guess (like Calvin Johnson). This is another one of them. No one really knows at this point what the split will be between Forte and Taylor, but I doubt either will rush for 1000 yards. Martz doesn't run the ball a lot. Whoever earns Martz's trust will collect quite a few receptions, though. For the value, I'd prefer Taylor, but I can't see either one starting for a winning fantasy team (unless you play ppr for some reason).
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Well, the big reason his production has slipped last year is because Cutler does not use his checkdown receivers to the same degree that Orton did. Under Martz, I dont expect much to change as the schemes he runs are (to a large degree) timing based.He will design some plays to utilize Forte's pass catching ability, but I dont expect much more than 60 or 65 catches. He is still a solid RB2 or a below average RB1.
 
From what I have seen/read, Forte has been practicing with the first team and a beat writer has suggested that he will get 60-70% of the RB touches in Chicago. Lovie Smith also indicated that Forte would begin the year as the starting tailback. Given the history of Martz' backs, that may not be a ton of rushing attempts but should still be a fair amount of receptions.

250-950-6

55-450-1

 
David Yudkin said:
From what I have seen/read, Forte has been practicing with the first team and a beat writer has suggested that he will get 60-70% of the RB touches in Chicago. Lovie Smith also indicated that Forte would begin the year as the starting tailback. Given the history of Martz' backs, that may not be a ton of rushing attempts but should still be a fair amount of receptions.250-950-655-450-1
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1400 total yds and 7 TDs would be a very solid year. I'm one of the few who thinks he gets his ypc over 4 this year so I'd put him at just over 1k rushing. He played hurt last year so I think he'll be improved.
 
I don't thin Chester Taylor will get as many carries as people think in Chicago. Taylor didn't impress me last year in Minnesota and there were some times when ADP was less than impressive himself and Taylor wasn't there to take advantage of the opportunity.

I'm not in love with Forte either but he could be good in certain situations during the season, like the Lions.

790 yards rushing, 5 td's

38 receptions for 300 yards and 2 td's

 
Iwannabeacowboybaby! said:
I don't thin Chester Taylor will get as many carries as people think in Chicago. Taylor didn't impress me last year in Minnesota and there were some times when ADP was less than impressive himself and Taylor wasn't there to take advantage of the opportunity. I'm not in love with Forte either but he could be good in certain situations during the season, like the Lions.790 yards rushing, 5 td's38 receptions for 300 yards and 2 td's
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I would ask for a projection like this to see what you have Taylor down for. I suspect that the pair added together would make for a really low projection for RB production.
 
I think that considering where he will be drafted Forte will make a lot of teams contenders.

As I mentioned in another thread, I project:

950 Yards rushing and 6 tds

55 475 Recieving 2 td's

You'll be getting that in the 4th and depending on the scoring, 5th round.

 
260 carries, 1080 yds, 7 TDs, 52 catches, 420 yds, 2 TDs

I really like him this year as many are down on him - I think he'll bounce back and be plenty productive. I'm buying in every league I can.

 
David Yudkin said:
Iwannabeacowboybaby! said:
I don't thin Chester Taylor will get as many carries as people think in Chicago. Taylor didn't impress me last year in Minnesota and there were some times when ADP was less than impressive himself and Taylor wasn't there to take advantage of the opportunity. I'm not in love with Forte either but he could be good in certain situations during the season, like the Lions.790 yards rushing, 5 td's38 receptions for 300 yards and 2 td's
Click to expand...
I would ask for a projection like this to see what you have Taylor down for. I suspect that the pair added together would make for a really low projection for RB production.
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Taylor 515 yards, 3 td's28 receptions for 240 yards and 2 td'sI really don't like the Bear offense this season, at least at this point.
 
Go deep said:
240 carries, 1029 yards, 8 TD's58 rec. 476 yards, 1 TD
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220 carries 900 yrds 8 TD'd30 rec 300 yds 1TDUltimately a nice RB3, but not a starter for a winning team. He is too average at everything...speed, agility, strength, vision etc....I don't ever see him breaking 4.1 yds per carry in a full season and he will not match his rookie season fantasy numbers the rest of his career
 
People are missing the fact that Matt Forte played with a bad hamstring and also sprained his MCL sometime during the 2009 season. He had knee surgery Jan 10th. He had an excuse as to why he wasn't the same back as 2008.

That said, even with renewed legs I'm not high on Forte this season. I'm down on him for one reason:

Chester Taylor.

You can have Forte because I think Mike Martz will draw up a ton of plays just for Chester. He's still got juice left.

Forte: 893 rushing yards, 7 TDs, 38 catches, 298 rec, 1 TD

 
At the end of the day, C Taylor's skill set is better suited for Martz' offense than Forte's. As shown in his rookie year, Forte can catch but those receptions primarily came as traditional RB dumpoffs. Forte would circle out of the backfield, hang out in the flat and be Orton's safety valve. The RB in a Martz offense needs to run routes downfield. It is why the TE becomes non-existent. The RB runs the TE routes. Think about how many times M Faulk came out of the backfield, ran 12 to 17 yards up the seem, stopped on a hashmark and caught passes. Now think about how many times last year we saw Taylor come out of the backfield, get behind the linebackers, stop and catch passes from Favre. Chester is more likely to run routes for Chicago like Faulk did in St Louis. However, Taylor is no spring chicken and will need to share the load with Forte which will put Forte on the field quite a bit and any RB with talent on the field in a Mike Martz offense will catch passes.

Projection

187car/720/5 39/310/1 for a PPR ranking of RB26

 
Bird said:
At the end of the day, C Taylor's skill set is better suited for Martz' offense than Forte's. As shown in his rookie year, Forte can catch but those receptions primarily came as traditional RB dumpoffs. Forte would circle out of the backfield, hang out in the flat and be Orton's safety valve. The RB in a Martz offense needs to run routes downfield. It is why the TE becomes non-existent. The RB runs the TE routes. Think about how many times M Faulk came out of the backfield, ran 12 to 17 yards up the seem, stopped on a hashmark and caught passes. Now think about how many times last year we saw Taylor come out of the backfield, get behind the linebackers, stop and catch passes from Favre. Chester is more likely to run routes for Chicago like Faulk did in St Louis. However, Taylor is no spring chicken and will need to share the load with Forte which will put Forte on the field quite a bit and any RB with talent on the field in a Mike Martz offense will catch passes.Projection187car/720/5 39/310/1 for a PPR ranking of RB26
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Marshall Faulk ran those routes in St. Louis because he was capable of running those routes. Chester Taylor isn't anywhere near Faulk's level in that regard. Marshall Faulk has said that he could have played solely as a receiver in the NFL. I don't think Chester Taylor, while he is a good receiver out of the backfield, is on par with Faulk.
 
Creed Bratton said:
Bird said:
At the end of the day, C Taylor's skill set is better suited for Martz' offense than Forte's. As shown in his rookie year, Forte can catch but those receptions primarily came as traditional RB dumpoffs. Forte would circle out of the backfield, hang out in the flat and be Orton's safety valve. The RB in a Martz offense needs to run routes downfield. It is why the TE becomes non-existent. The RB runs the TE routes. Think about how many times M Faulk came out of the backfield, ran 12 to 17 yards up the seem, stopped on a hashmark and caught passes. Now think about how many times last year we saw Taylor come out of the backfield, get behind the linebackers, stop and catch passes from Favre. Chester is more likely to run routes for Chicago like Faulk did in St Louis. However, Taylor is no spring chicken and will need to share the load with Forte which will put Forte on the field quite a bit and any RB with talent on the field in a Mike Martz offense will catch passes.Projection187car/720/5 39/310/1 for a PPR ranking of RB26
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Marshall Faulk ran those routes in St. Louis because he was capable of running those routes. Chester Taylor isn't anywhere near Faulk's level in that regard. Marshall Faulk has said that he could have played solely as a receiver in the NFL. I don't think Chester Taylor, while he is a good receiver out of the backfield, is on par with Faulk.
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The point wasn't to say that Taylor is as good as Faulk. It was to show that he is more suited for that role in the offense than Forte. Unless you think Martz is suddenly converting to a power running philosophy, then Taylor is the Chicago RB to own this year.
 
Bird said:
At the end of the day, C Taylor's skill set is better suited for Martz' offense than Forte's. As shown in his rookie year, Forte can catch but those receptions primarily came as traditional RB dumpoffs. Forte would circle out of the backfield, hang out in the flat and be Orton's safety valve. The RB in a Martz offense needs to run routes downfield. It is why the TE becomes non-existent. The RB runs the TE routes. Think about how many times M Faulk came out of the backfield, ran 12 to 17 yards up the seem, stopped on a hashmark and caught passes. Now think about how many times last year we saw Taylor come out of the backfield, get behind the linebackers, stop and catch passes from Favre. Chester is more likely to run routes for Chicago like Faulk did in St Louis. However, Taylor is no spring chicken and will need to share the load with Forte which will put Forte on the field quite a bit and any RB with talent on the field in a Mike Martz offense will catch passes.

Projection

187car/720/5 39/310/1 for a PPR ranking of RB26
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Did you miss all the times when he was split out and caught TD's one on one with LB's???

 
Bird said:
Creed Bratton said:
Bird said:
At the end of the day, C Taylor's skill set is better suited for Martz' offense than Forte's. As shown in his rookie year, Forte can catch but those receptions primarily came as traditional RB dumpoffs. Forte would circle out of the backfield, hang out in the flat and be Orton's safety valve. The RB in a Martz offense needs to run routes downfield. It is why the TE becomes non-existent. The RB runs the TE routes. Think about how many times M Faulk came out of the backfield, ran 12 to 17 yards up the seem, stopped on a hashmark and caught passes. Now think about how many times last year we saw Taylor come out of the backfield, get behind the linebackers, stop and catch passes from Favre. Chester is more likely to run routes for Chicago like Faulk did in St Louis. However, Taylor is no spring chicken and will need to share the load with Forte which will put Forte on the field quite a bit and any RB with talent on the field in a Mike Martz offense will catch passes.Projection187car/720/5 39/310/1 for a PPR ranking of RB26
Click to expand...
Marshall Faulk ran those routes in St. Louis because he was capable of running those routes. Chester Taylor isn't anywhere near Faulk's level in that regard. Marshall Faulk has said that he could have played solely as a receiver in the NFL. I don't think Chester Taylor, while he is a good receiver out of the backfield, is on par with Faulk.
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The point wasn't to say that Taylor is as good as Faulk. It was to show that he is more suited for that role in the offense than Forte. Unless you think Martz is suddenly converting to a power running philosophy, then Taylor is the Chicago RB to own this year.
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What makes you think Taylor is a better route runner than Forte? Also why would Forte be a power running RB? He is a slasher....who has great feet for his size.
 
Bird said:
Creed Bratton said:
Bird said:
At the end of the day, C Taylor's skill set is better suited for Martz' offense than Forte's. As shown in his rookie year, Forte can catch but those receptions primarily came as traditional RB dumpoffs. Forte would circle out of the backfield, hang out in the flat and be Orton's safety valve. The RB in a Martz offense needs to run routes downfield. It is why the TE becomes non-existent. The RB runs the TE routes. Think about how many times M Faulk came out of the backfield, ran 12 to 17 yards up the seem, stopped on a hashmark and caught passes. Now think about how many times last year we saw Taylor come out of the backfield, get behind the linebackers, stop and catch passes from Favre. Chester is more likely to run routes for Chicago like Faulk did in St Louis. However, Taylor is no spring chicken and will need to share the load with Forte which will put Forte on the field quite a bit and any RB with talent on the field in a Mike Martz offense will catch passes.Projection187car/720/5 39/310/1 for a PPR ranking of RB26
Click to expand...
Marshall Faulk ran those routes in St. Louis because he was capable of running those routes. Chester Taylor isn't anywhere near Faulk's level in that regard. Marshall Faulk has said that he could have played solely as a receiver in the NFL. I don't think Chester Taylor, while he is a good receiver out of the backfield, is on par with Faulk.
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The point wasn't to say that Taylor is as good as Faulk. It was to show that he is more suited for that role in the offense than Forte. Unless you think Martz is suddenly converting to a power running philosophy, then Taylor is the Chicago RB to own this year.
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I think Forte is the better pass catcher at this point of their careers, and fits Martz offense better. I would be suprised if Taylor gets more than 30% of the touches in Chicago this year.
 
The Real Hipster Doofus said:
todisco1 said:
260 carries, 1080 yds, 7 TDs, 52 catches, 420 yds, 2 TDs I really like him this year as many are down on him - I think he'll bounce back and be plenty productive. I'm buying in every league I can.
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I agree in regards to redraft. Dynasty? I wouldn't touch him.
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His price has dropped in dynasty, so I am buying. I really think his value has fallen to a point where he is underrated. But I'm of the mind that he played hurt much of last year and he will bounce back and show he's a good overall RB. He's not an elite talent but I think he'll tote the rock for Chicago for the next few seasons and produce solid Ryan Grant type numbers. I like him at his current value.
 
Iwannabeacowboybaby! said:
David Yudkin said:
Iwannabeacowboybaby! said:
I don't thin Chester Taylor will get as many carries as people think in Chicago. Taylor didn't impress me last year in Minnesota and there were some times when ADP was less than impressive himself and Taylor wasn't there to take advantage of the opportunity.

I'm not in love with Forte either but he could be good in certain situations during the season, like the Lions.

790 yards rushing, 5 td's

38 receptions for 300 yards and 2 td's
Click to expand...
I would ask for a projection like this to see what you have Taylor down for. I suspect that the pair added together would make for a really low projection for RB production.
Click to expand...
Taylor 515 yards, 3 td's

28 receptions for 240 yards and 2 td's

I really don't like the Bear offense this season, at least at this point.
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OC = +++ Martz is way better than TurnerCutler= can't be worse than last year

Established LT= ++......Chris Williams is much better than Pace(this showed at the end of the year).

Forte= no injuries going into or a sprained knee week 3 +++

Taylor= Better than last year

Bennett-entering 3rd year

Iglesius-entering 2nd year

Knox-entering 2nd year

DA-showed promise end of last year

This group will be better.

 
benson_will_lead_the_way said:
Iwannabeacowboybaby! said:
David Yudkin said:
Iwannabeacowboybaby! said:
I don't thin Chester Taylor will get as many carries as people think in Chicago. Taylor didn't impress me last year in Minnesota and there were some times when ADP was less than impressive himself and Taylor wasn't there to take advantage of the opportunity.

I'm not in love with Forte either but he could be good in certain situations during the season, like the Lions.

790 yards rushing, 5 td's

38 receptions for 300 yards and 2 td's
Click to expand...
I would ask for a projection like this to see what you have Taylor down for. I suspect that the pair added together would make for a really low projection for RB production.
Click to expand...
Taylor 515 yards, 3 td's

28 receptions for 240 yards and 2 td's

I really don't like the Bear offense this season, at least at this point.
Click to expand...
OC = +++ Martz is way better than TurnerCutler= can't be worse than last year

Established LT= ++......Chris Williams is much better than Pace(this showed at the end of the year).

Forte= no injuries going into or a sprained knee week 3 +++

Taylor= Better than last year

Bennett-entering 3rd year

Iglesius-entering 2nd year

Knox-entering 2nd year

DA-showed promise end of last year

This group will be better.
Click to expand...
Dont forget it looked like Cutler and the Bears offense as a whole started to look alot better towards seasons end.
 
benson_will_lead_the_way said:
Did you miss all the times when he was split out and caught TD's one on one with LB's???
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I must have. Please refresh my memory because when I research the 4 TD he caught in 2008 and the none he got in 2009 here's what I find:1st and 6 at TB 6 (2:58) K.Orton pass short left to M.Forte for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 2nd and 8 at DET 9 (5:36) K.Orton pass short middle to M.Forte for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 3rd and 5 at TEN 5 R.Grossman pass short left to M.Forte for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 2nd and 2 at MIN 2 K.Orton pass short left to M.Forte for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. These don't scream "split out" to me. They seem to be dumpoffs.
 
Bird said:
benson_will_lead_the_way said:
Did you miss all the times when he was split out and caught TD's one on one with LB's???
Click to expand...
I must have. Please refresh my memory because when I research the 4 TD he caught in 2008 and the none he got in 2009 here's what I find:

1st and 6 at TB 6 (2:58) K.Orton pass short left to M.Forte for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

2nd and 8 at DET 9 (5:36) K.Orton pass short middle to M.Forte for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

3rd and 5 at TEN 5 R.Grossman pass short left to M.Forte for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

2nd and 2 at MIN 2 K.Orton pass short left to M.Forte for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

These don't scream "split out" to me. They seem to be dumpoffs.
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:bag: This is simply a case where the stats don't tell the whole story.. You have to actually watch the games.

Forte 2008 Highlights - If you skip to 0:38, 3:05, and 4:48 you can see that 3 of those 4 tds came when Forte was split out wide.

 
Bird said:
At the end of the day, C Taylor's skill set is better suited for Martz' offense than Forte's. As shown in his rookie year, Forte can catch but those receptions primarily came as traditional RB dumpoffs. Forte would circle out of the backfield, hang out in the flat and be Orton's safety valve. The RB in a Martz offense needs to run routes downfield. It is why the TE becomes non-existent. The RB runs the TE routes. Think about how many times M Faulk came out of the backfield, ran 12 to 17 yards up the seem, stopped on a hashmark and caught passes. Now think about how many times last year we saw Taylor come out of the backfield, get behind the linebackers, stop and catch passes from Favre. Chester is more likely to run routes for Chicago like Faulk did in St Louis. However, Taylor is no spring chicken and will need to share the load with Forte which will put Forte on the field quite a bit and any RB with talent on the field in a Mike Martz offense will catch passes.

Projection

187car/720/5 39/310/1 for a PPR ranking of RB26
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Not for nothing, but that wasn't always the case with Taylor last year. I'm not saying that he never ran those routes, but rather that he didn't really line up in a TE or WR position and run a TE or WR route. Most of his passes seemed to be the more traditional RB routes: screen passes, dump-offs, 5 yard safety valve type routes, etc. A number of those times when he "got behind" the linebackers was a result of Favre recognizing the blitz and realizing that Taylor was the open man in the spot LB's were blitzing from.
 
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footballman_696969 said:
Bird said:
benson_will_lead_the_way said:
Did you miss all the times when he was split out and caught TD's one on one with LB's???
Click to expand...
I must have. Please refresh my memory because when I research the 4 TD he caught in 2008 and the none he got in 2009 here's what I find:

1st and 6 at TB 6 (2:58) K.Orton pass short left to M.Forte for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

2nd and 8 at DET 9 (5:36) K.Orton pass short middle to M.Forte for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

3rd and 5 at TEN 5 R.Grossman pass short left to M.Forte for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

2nd and 2 at MIN 2 K.Orton pass short left to M.Forte for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

These don't scream "split out" to me. They seem to be dumpoffs.
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:lmao: This is simply a case where the stats don't tell the whole story.. You have to actually watch the games.

Forte 2008 Highlights - If you skip to 0:38, 3:05, and 4:48 you can see that 3 of those 4 tds came when Forte was split out wide.
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Thanks for not having to make me explain this to him.

 
Forte's a talented back who will make plays for years. But for the next year or two Chester Taylor will be a freakin' thorn in the fantasy rear. He's not a handcuff, he's an absolute threat to Forte with this new Martz playbook in town, imo.

 
Matt Forte is one of those guys that most fantasy owners downgrade becuase of he is too ordinary. He isn't real fast or shifty or big, he is just one of those middlin players. He didn't play at a big college program, he played at Tulane. He wasn't a high draft pick, going in the second round to the Bears. Even though, he doesn't seem to have many fans, he has been very productive, especially as a receiver.

08 16 gms 316 carries 1238 yds 3.9 ypc 77 targets 63 catches 477 yds 7.6 ypr and 12 TDs finished RB4 in non-ppr

09 16 gms 258 carries 929 yds 3.6 ypc 72 targets 57 catches 471 yds 8.3 ypr and 4 TDs finished RB18 in non-ppr

For the upcoming 2010 campaign, the Bears have added Chester Taylor, a 30 (will be 31 in Sept) year old former sixth round pick, who although successful throughout his career has only averaged 8.3 carries per game and that includes his first season as a Viking (Pre-AP) when he averaged over 20 carries per game. Taylor has not had more than 12 carries in a game since 07 with a high game of 73 yards rushing. He has been a realiable receiver with 89 catches over the past two seasons.

I think that Forte will get the majority of the opportunity for the Bears, with Chester Taylor spelling him for a few series per game. I don't think that Taylor will permanently replace Forte for third down duties either. The other concern with Forte is the typical Martz effect on RBs with limited rushing opportunities. I think that most consider that on top of Taylor and discount Forte's opportunity. When you further add in the general consensus that Forte is not special, then the draft position drops. Forte is currently drafted at RB 23 and 51 overall. The ideal scenario would be a lot of buzz around Taylor in the pre-season. I really think that Forte's eventual draft position will be even lower than current. If that happens, then I think that he would provide value, especially in ppr leagues. Interestingly, Forte goes at RB 26 and 59 overall in ppr leagues!

Matt Forte 16 gms 224 carries (14 per game) 896 yards 4.0 ypc 60 targets 50 catches 400 yards 8.0 ypc and 8 total TDs

 
i love im this year especially where you can get him

im def eye'n him for my #3 rb.......and it should be easy

 
Let us not forget Forte's low ranking is due in part to the horrid Bears o line which didnt improve in the offseason.

 
Tchula said:
Let us not forget Forte's low ranking is due in part to the horrid Bears o line which didnt improve in the offseason.
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LT- Start of last year O. Pace this year a more experienced Chris WilliamsRT- Was Chris Williams now is a bigger F. Omiyale who excelled at RT in Carolina. It is his more natural position.Enter Oline coach Mike Tice.All of that is reason to believe it will be better than last season.
 
I think Forte has been downgraded not necessarily due to his production, but rather due to his production in relation to his draft position last season. Last season, Forte was drafted in the top half of Round 1 in most leagues and with that draft position comes significant expectations. Those expectations were not met across the board. However, he did hit 1400 total yards and for the most part was a solid, if unspectacular RB2. His TD's decreased significantly from 12 to 4, but TD's can be a mercurial stat to base future performance on, particularly for young players who've yet to truly establish a career trend.

Forte's YPC decreased from 3.9 to 3.6 and while that's obviously heading in the wrong direction, it never has been a strength of his since he entered the NFL. What has been his strength is his ability accumulate yardage in the passing game. His two season average in the passing game has been 60/474/2. When you've established a track record of being a weapon out of the backfield in the passing game, which Forte has - you'll have a role on 3rd down.

To me, the acquisition of Chester Taylor was to protect the Bears in the case of injury to Forte. No doubt, the Bears will find a way to incorporate Taylor into their weekly game plans with a definitive situational role. But the Bears can't afford to have nothing behind Forte (i.e Khalil Bell) in worse case scenarios because when the burden of the offense and it's production fell on Jay Cutler, he struggled. As it is, the Bears WR corps is amongst the worst in the NFL.

At the end of the day though, Forte has proven to be productive enough at a sub 4.0 YPC to where his floor has been established. His receiving yardage might drip below 400, but a workload of 250-260 carries would make him effective enough to not expose the owner who drafts him to anything less than RB2 production. For a 5th round RB, that's not bad value because his upside if he can even up his YPC to the 4.1-4.2 range can get him into the 1500 total yard range and his TD production might also come back.

While I wouldn't say I'm bullish on Forte, he's a safe option in the mid-rounds who won't hurt you as a supplementary player with upside to outproduce expectation this year.

Prediction: 257 Carries, 1017 Rushing Yards 7 TD's, 51 receptions 380 Receiving Yards, 2 TD's.

 
I just lolzzzzed at the two latest news reports on MFL in the past 24 hours on Forte.

(TheHuddle) Chicago Bears RB Matt Forte has a chance to become the centerpiece of new offensive coordinator Mike Martz's offense the way former RB Marshall Faulk was for him with the St. Louis Rams, according to Dam Pompei, of the Chicago Tribune. "It's an offense that kind of circles around a running back who can catch the ball," Forte said. "A lot of our stuff looks like another play, so the defense doesn't know if we'll run it or pass it out of certain formations. That's good for the running back."

(Rotoworld) Matt Forte's percentage of backfield touches this year is expected to be "significantly lower" than it was during the 2008 and 2009 seasons.

Analysis: This might seem obvious following the addition of Chester Taylor, but it's worth keeping in mind that there is no expectation in Chicago of the Bears staying with Forte as a true "feature back." Thus, it's going to be difficult to expect a real bounce-back season for Forte. We're projecting 220 carries.

 
BINGBING said:
I just lolzzzzed at the two latest news reports on MFL in the past 24 hours on Forte.(TheHuddle) Chicago Bears RB Matt Forte has a chance to become the centerpiece of new offensive coordinator Mike Martz's offense the way former RB Marshall Faulk was for him with the St. Louis Rams, according to Dam Pompei, of the Chicago Tribune. "It's an offense that kind of circles around a running back who can catch the ball," Forte said. "A lot of our stuff looks like another play, so the defense doesn't know if we'll run it or pass it out of certain formations. That's good for the running back."(Rotoworld) Matt Forte's percentage of backfield touches this year is expected to be "significantly lower" than it was during the 2008 and 2009 seasons.Analysis: This might seem obvious following the addition of Chester Taylor, but it's worth keeping in mind that there is no expectation in Chicago of the Bears staying with Forte as a true "feature back." Thus, it's going to be difficult to expect a real bounce-back season for Forte. We're projecting 220 carries.
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That is hilarious. I still think he's in for a strong season, especially at his ADP.
 
Forte and Taylor have the same ypc over the past two seasons (even though Forte had nearly triple the carries). Why are some folks so sure that Taylor (31 during the season) will be better than Forte (25 during the season)?

I'm guessing the MIN OL was stronger and playing indoors on turf should have been a decent advantage for Taylor.

 
David Yudkin said:
Forte and Taylor have the same ypc over the past two seasons (even though Forte had nearly triple the carries). Why are some folks so sure that Taylor (31 during the season) will be better than Forte (25 during the season)?I'm guessing the MIN OL was stronger and playing indoors on turf should have been a decent advantage for Taylor.
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:yes: I think people get caught up in the something new factor. Even though Taylor is old, he is new to the team, so people will overvalue him.
 
At his current position (4.07 12 team) I think that is about right for a starting RB, however if you can get him in the 5th or later then he moves to the "steal" category. If he is your #1 then you must load up on top WR's to make up the difference and hope for the occasional lights out game that he produced as a rookie. In my big money league I am aiming hard for him at 5.05. I plan to go wr,wr,wr,qb, RB

 
250-800-3

40-350-1

Forte has value as a #4 or #5 RB for your FF team. But I think everyone is counting to much on a bounce back season from him. Taylor is to good to not get at least 40 percent of the touches if not more.

I let people take Forte in the 4 to 5th round, and then grab Taylor in the 8th and get the same production.

 
Gopher State said:
250-800-3

40-350-1

Forte has value as a #4 or #5 RB for your FF team. But I think everyone is counting to much on a bounce back season from him. Taylor is to good to not get at least 40 percent of the touches if not more.



I let people take Forte in the 4 to 5th round, and then grab Taylor in the 8th and get the same production.
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No offense but how can you possibly figure that?

 
footballman_696969 said:
Bird said:
benson_will_lead_the_way said:
Did you miss all the times when he was split out and caught TD's one on one with LB's???
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I must have. Please refresh my memory because when I research the 4 TD he caught in 2008 and the none he got in 2009 here's what I find:

1st and 6 at TB 6 (2:58) K.Orton pass short left to M.Forte for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

2nd and 8 at DET 9 (5:36) K.Orton pass short middle to M.Forte for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

3rd and 5 at TEN 5 R.Grossman pass short left to M.Forte for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

2nd and 2 at MIN 2 K.Orton pass short left to M.Forte for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

These don't scream "split out" to me. They seem to be dumpoffs.
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:useless: This is simply a case where the stats don't tell the whole story.. You have to actually watch the games.

Forte 2008 Highlights - If you skip to 0:38, 3:05, and 4:48 you can see that 3 of those 4 tds came when Forte was split out wide.
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When I watch these "highlights", what stands out is most of them are against the 2008 Detroit Lions that allowed a whopping 5.1 Y/A for 31 TDs, and Forte is being caught from behind. Caveat emptor.
 
I like Taylor more this year. He still has a lot of tread on those tires, and is in my opinion a better all around RB. I see the touches favoring Taylor slightly by the end of the year.

 
Paper Tiger said:
I like Taylor more this year. He still has a lot of tread on those tires, and is in my opinion a better all around RB. I see the touches favoring Taylor slightly by the end of the year.
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I like Taylor as a player, but I am wondering where the fantasy love is coming from. In 8 seasons, he's had more than 900 yards from scrimmage twice (once when he was a starter and got the ball a ton). He's scored 6 TD in a season three times (with a high of 7 once). His ypc has fallen 1.8 yards over the past couple of seasons and he'll be 31 early in the season. I don't see how he is better in any way, shape, or form than what Forte has to offer at this point.
 
David Yudkin said:
Paper Tiger said:
I like Taylor more this year. He still has a lot of tread on those tires, and is in my opinion a better all around RB. I see the touches favoring Taylor slightly by the end of the year.
Click to expand...
I like Taylor as a player, but I am wondering where the fantasy love is coming from. In 8 seasons, he's had more than 900 yards from scrimmage twice (once when he was a starter and got the ball a ton). He's scored 6 TD in a season three times (with a high of 7 once). His ypc has fallen 1.8 yards over the past couple of seasons and he'll be 31 early in the season. I don't see how he is better in any way, shape, or form than what Forte has to offer at this point.
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I like Forte in this offense with Martz running it. He has made running backs in this offense look foolishly good. You know there names. Forte does everything Martz will want him to do. I think Forte is huge in PPR leagues especially, but none the less I think he will produce real fine this year.
 
His current ADP is ~RB25. Last year he finished 18, and I think he will finish around that mark. As such he is a good buy IMO.

 
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I mentioned it in another thread but I believe Forte is going to receive loads of touches. Conservative projection of 790 yards rushing (3.8 ypc on 13 attempts per game) with 499 yards receiving (4 catches per game @ 7.8 ypc).

That's a total of 1289 yards. I truly believe that's his absolute floor.

I think touchdowns are generally a fluke...but I'll say 5 rushing and 1 receiving.

That's almost exactly the number of points he scored last year. :excited:

 
David Yudkin said:
Paper Tiger said:
I like Taylor more this year. He still has a lot of tread on those tires, and is in my opinion a better all around RB. I see the touches favoring Taylor slightly by the end of the year.
Click to expand...
I like Taylor as a player, but I am wondering where the fantasy love is coming from. In 8 seasons, he's had more than 900 yards from scrimmage twice (once when he was a starter and got the ball a ton). He's scored 6 TD in a season three times (with a high of 7 once). His ypc has fallen 1.8 yards over the past couple of seasons and he'll be 31 early in the season. I don't see how he is better in any way, shape, or form than what Forte has to offer at this point.
Click to expand...
Forte averaged 3.6 YPC last year. Then again, so did Taylor. The difference is that Taylor has a career YPC of 4.3, while Forte has YPCs of 3.6 and 3.9 in his two years of play. Taylor, on the other hand, has a YPC of over 4.3, has very few miles on him, and is one year removed from an impressive 5.4 YPC. Martz has no allegiance to either, but the Bears went out and spent a substantial amount of money on a 30 year old running back who was considered the best RB available in free agency, and Martz played Marshall Faulk until he was 32. I don't think Taylor is going to be the starter, but I don't think Forte has any lock on the starting job or on more than 60% of the touches. Taylor has a chance to be a spot contributor and maybe more if Forte, who kind of sucks, stumbles. That makes him an above average backup RB in redrafts.
 
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