Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals (1 Viewer)

2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

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Thread Topic: Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals

Player Page Link: Larry Fitzgerald Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

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[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

I agree that although Fitz is one of, if not the best receiver in the league as far as talent and athletic abilties, The receiver is only half of the tandem though and the quarterbacks abilty to deliver the ball can have a great effect on the receiver having the opportunities to make the catch. One of Fitz's bread and butter plays was catching the over the shoulder Td right at the out of bounds line of the end zone. That type of play had the success rate not just because of Fitz's receiving abilities but the combination of his receiving abilities and Warners abilities to time the throw and put it where he had the chance to go get it.

I question whether Leinhart has the pocket presence to cooly stand in there AND also deliver the ball with that same touch as Warner. To many questions as far as Leinhart is concerned, will defenses be able to rattle him with pressure, can he and Fitz develop the same timing and rapport that Fitz had with Warner, does Leinhart even have the potential to be as good as Warner?

I think that Favre showed that a different Quarterback in the backfield can definately make receivers be better or look better and I think the same goes with a Quarterback change can very easily have the same effect only in reverse.

If you think that Fitz should not show a decrease in his ADP then you should be willing to value Leinhart in the same catorgory as you would as if it was Warner throwing the rock. I will be greatly surprised if he does not drop in all catorgories this year compared to the last couple of years the only unanswerable question is how much and that we cannot answer until Leinhart has been under center for a while and see how he performs under game pressures and with the game on the line.

I think the questions surrounding Fitz as to the changes in his supporting staff would drop him to at best a high second round pick, just can't see a first round pick with all of the other talent in the league and the obvious questions as to the situation in the desert.

Fitz is obviously one of the most talented WR's in the league, but i think he will have a rough 2010...by his standards anyway. I wouldnt have been overly concerned with either Warner or Boldin leaving, but both things happening is going to hurt. Looked what happened to Calvin Johnson without a decent #2 WR and an inexpierienced QB last year. I still think Fitz will put up OK #1 WR numbers, but not top 3.

91 rec. 1075 yards, 9 TD's

MrTwo94 said:

Not sure why his ypc dropped off last year, but I really doubt Leinert is the cure.

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Larry Fitzgerald's ypc dropped precipitously because Warner's arm was shot last year and he couldn't get the ball down the field with any accuracy. That's why Kurt Warner is out of the league today. For all his other faults, Leinart has the precise asset needed to correct Fitzgerald's drop in ypc- an NFL-caliber arm.

Go deep said:

I wouldnt have been overly concerned with either Warner or Boldin leaving, but both things happening is going to hurt. Looked what happened to Calvin Johnson without a decent #2 WR and an inexpierienced QB last year. I still think Fitz will put up OK #1 WR numbers, but not top 3.

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Since 2005, Larry Fitzgerald has averaged 7.0 catches for 105.5 yards and 1.0 TDs per game when Anquan Boldin's been out. That works out to 12/1688/16 over a full season without Boldin. For his entire career, Fitz averages 0.5 more receptions, 16.3 more yards, and 0.2 more TDs when Boldin is out than he does when Boldin is in- that's an extra 260 yards and 3 TDs over a full year.Losing Boldin isn't a negative for Fitzgerald. No Boldin = more targets. It might mean tougher coverages, but Larry Fitzgerald eats tough coverages for breakfast.

A couple old posts on Fitz's outlook:

Just Win Baby said:

Games in which Fitzgerald played and Leinart had 20+ pass attempts:12 games, 97 targets, 60 receptions, 742 receiving yards (12.4 ypr), 4 TDsPer 16 games, this scales to 129 targets, 80 receptions, 989 receiving yards, 5 TDsAll other games (regular season and postseason) played by Fitzgerald from 2006 to 2009:54 games, 533 targets, 345 receptions, 4847 receiving yards (14 ypr), 46 TDsPer 16 games, this scales to 158 targets, 102 receptions, 1436 receiving yards, 14 TDsObviously there is an enormous difference. This suggests that Leinart will indeed have a negative impact on Fitz's numbers. With Leinart, Fitz averaged fewer targets and his production per target was lower.Of course, one might argue that Leinart has a chance to be better this year, especially since if he is going to be the starter he will have the chance to work all offseason and preseason with Fitz and the rest of the first team offense. But can that make up this huge gap? I seriously doubt it.And I'd be concerned that with Warner out and Leinart in, the offense will shift to a more balanced attack, with more running and less passing. Check out where the offense ranked in passing and rushing attempts over the past 4 seasons:2006 - #7 in passing attempts, #26 in rushing attempts2007 - #2 in passing attempts, #25 in rushing attempts2008 - #2 in passing attempts, #32 in rushing attempts2009 - #3 in passing attempts, #32 in rushing attemptsI expect Whisenhunt to adjust to a more balanced attack going forward, given that he will no longer have one of the best passing QBs in the NFL.

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Just Win Baby said:

In the dynasty rankings thread, SSOG had a conversation about this and I reasoned out what seems to be a reasonable expectation for targets in the short term. I think Fitz is likely to get around the same number of targets he got in 2009 in the next year or two (too hard to project further than that). That fits the bigger piece of the smaller pie scenario.So the real question is how much his productivity per target drops. Per my post above, with Leinart, Fitz has averaged approximately 1 point per target so far in his career (non PPR FBG scoring). With all other QBs combined, he averaged 1.44 points per target. One can quibble with the methodology I used for separating games, but IMO it is clear that we should expect his productivity to drop. I guess that's not exactly earth shattering considering the move from Warner to Leinart... but if it was to drop by as much as 1.44 to 1, it could be enough to put him near the bottom of the top 20. (Last year it would have put him around 17th).Perhaps Leinart will improve with maturity and more practice time as the starter... perhaps Fitz is still improving or has improved since some of those previous games with Leinart... but IMO he is far from the lock to finish top 10 that others think he is. To me, this makes him overrated at this time.

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I'll get around to projections in a later post.

SSOG said:

MrTwo94 said:

Not sure why his ypc dropped off last year, but I really doubt Leinert is the cure.

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Larry Fitzgerald's ypc dropped precipitously because Warner's arm was shot last year and he couldn't get the ball down the field with any accuracy. That's why Kurt Warner is out of the league today. For all his other faults, Leinart has the precise asset needed to correct Fitzgerald's drop in ypc- an NFL-caliber arm.

Go deep said:

I wouldnt have been overly concerned with either Warner or Boldin leaving, but both things happening is going to hurt. Looked what happened to Calvin Johnson without a decent #2 WR and an inexpierienced QB last year. I still think Fitz will put up OK #1 WR numbers, but not top 3.

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Since 2005, Larry Fitzgerald has averaged 7.0 catches for 105.5 yards and 1.0 TDs per game when Anquan Boldin's been out. That works out to 12/1688/16 over a full season without Boldin. For his entire career, Fitz averages 0.5 more receptions, 16.3 more yards, and 0.2 more TDs when Boldin is out than he does when Boldin is in- that's an extra 260 yards and 3 TDs over a full year.Losing Boldin isn't a negative for Fitzgerald. No Boldin = more targets. It might mean tougher coverages, but Larry Fitzgerald eats tough coverages for breakfast.

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I know Fitz has had success with Boldin out of the lineup in the past, but now he has to do it for a full season, and without a good QB. Im sure Fitzgerald could beat tough coverages, but beating coverage has as much to do with the QB as the WR. Losing Bolidn doesnt just hurt as far as taking some coverage from Fitz, but having boldin helped to keep the chains moving. Last year Fitz caught 97 passes for 1092 yards, and 13 TD's. Im projecting his catches and yards will be close to last years, but i see a 25-30% drop in TD's. I would be slightly suprised if he hits double digits TD's in 2010.I dont see any reason why anyone thinks his numbers can improve from last year, when he ranked 5th in fantasy points.

This is a tough projection because you have potential Hall of Fame QB Kurt Warner retiring but you also have Anquan Boldin leaving for Baltimore, making Fitz even more of a target for Leinart. This is a case at least for me where things could change towards the start of the season but I'm tempering my projections for the upcoming season due to my lack of confidence of Matt Leinart. I'm not saying Leinart can't be successful, but I will say I'm taking a wait and see approach, at least as for as long as I can to make a better decision. For now:

90 receptions, 1005 yards and 9 td's

Go deep said:

Fitz is obviously one of the most talented WR's in the league, but i think he will have a rough 2010...by his standards anyway. I wouldnt have been overly concerned with either Warner or Boldin leaving, but both things happening is going to hurt. Looked what happened to Calvin Johnson without a decent #2 WR and an inexpierienced QB last year. I still think Fitz will put up OK #1 WR numbers, but not top 3.91 rec. 1075 yards, 9 TD's

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After Andre Johnson, which are the other 2 WR's who score higher? Wayne and Moss?

Carolina Hustler said:

Go deep said:

Fitz is obviously one of the most talented WR's in the league, but i think he will have a rough 2010...by his standards anyway. I wouldnt have been overly concerned with either Warner or Boldin leaving, but both things happening is going to hurt. Looked what happened to Calvin Johnson without a decent #2 WR and an inexpierienced QB last year. I still think Fitz will put up OK #1 WR numbers, but not top 3.91 rec. 1075 yards, 9 TD's

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After Andre Johnson, which are the other 2 WR's who score higher? Wayne and Moss?

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Wayne and Moss are possibilties, along with Jennings, Austin, Rice, DJax, Calvin, VJax(if he doesnt get suspended). Of those, i feel confident that AJ, Desean and Austin will all finish ahead of Fitz.

Go deep said:

I know Fitz has had success with Boldin out of the lineup in the past, but now he has to do it for a full season, and without a good QB. Im sure Fitzgerald could beat tough coverages, but beating coverage has as much to do with the QB as the WR. Losing Bolidn doesnt just hurt as far as taking some coverage from Fitz, but having boldin helped to keep the chains moving. Last year Fitz caught 97 passes for 1092 yards, and 13 TD's. Im projecting his catches and yards will be close to last years, but i see a 25-30% drop in TD's. I would be slightly suprised if he hits double digits TD's in 2010.I dont see any reason why anyone thinks his numbers can improve from last year, when he ranked 5th in fantasy points.

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I'm going to say that I think there's pretty much no chance whatsoever that both Fitz's catches *AND* his yards remain relatively static from last year. Either his yards remain static and his catches go down substantially, or else his catches remain static and his yards go up substantially. Last year's ypc was a huge aberration. For his career, his ypc has progressed from 13.4, to 13.7, to 13.7, to 14.1, to 14.9- that's a steady increase for five straight seasons. Then last year he posted a ypc of 11.3, more than two full yards below his career low (set as a rookie) and almost THREE YARDS below his career average to that point (14.0 ypc). That was a massive, massive dropoff, and it's wholly attributable to the fact that Warner no longer had an NFL-caliber arm last year. Warner was essentially just post-surgery Chad Pennington- good decisions, solid accuracy, no arm strength. This year, Fitzgerald is a near-lock to return to the 13.5-15 ypc range. If he gets as many catches as last year at a normal ypc total (14 yards), then he'll get 1350 yards this year. If he matches last year's yardage total (1092 yards) at a more normal ypc, that means he only got 78 receptions. Between the two (97/1350 and 78/1092), I think the first option is far more likely given the sheer volume of targets Fitzgerald is going to receive next year. 78 receptions on 160 targets is a 49% catch%, and I don't see any way Fitz ever puts up a sub-50% catch%.So... based on the fact that Fitzgerald is the only option in town, I think he's a lock for 150+ targets. Based on Fitzgerald's career to date (as well as the fact that Leinart has an NFL-caliber arm, unlike Kurt Warner 2009), I think Fitzgerald is a lock for 13-15 ypc. His career catch% is 61.6%, and he's only once been below 60% (55.8% as a rookie). Accounting for all those facts, we get the following ranges of production-150 targets, 55% catch%, 13 ypc (low end of the targets, career low catch%, second worst ypc of career) = 83/1072165 targets, 62% catch%, 14 ypc (high end of the targets, career average catch% and ypc) = 102/1432If you split the difference, you get 93/1252, which isn't very scientific but which looks good enough for me. Add in 8 TDs, which would match his career low for a 16-game season (set his rookie year) and you've got 93/1252/8.

SSOG said:

Go deep said:

I know Fitz has had success with Boldin out of the lineup in the past, but now he has to do it for a full season, and without a good QB. Im sure Fitzgerald could beat tough coverages, but beating coverage has as much to do with the QB as the WR. Losing Bolidn doesnt just hurt as far as taking some coverage from Fitz, but having boldin helped to keep the chains moving. Last year Fitz caught 97 passes for 1092 yards, and 13 TD's. Im projecting his catches and yards will be close to last years, but i see a 25-30% drop in TD's. I would be slightly suprised if he hits double digits TD's in 2010.I dont see any reason why anyone thinks his numbers can improve from last year, when he ranked 5th in fantasy points.

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I'm going to say that I think there's pretty much no chance whatsoever that both Fitz's catches *AND* his yards remain relatively static from last year. Either his yards remain static and his catches go down substantially, or else his catches remain static and his yards go up substantially. Last year's ypc was a huge aberration. For his career, his ypc has progressed from 13.4, to 13.7, to 13.7, to 14.1, to 14.9- that's a steady increase for five straight seasons. Then last year he posted a ypc of 11.3, more than two full yards below his career low (set as a rookie) and almost THREE YARDS below his career average to that point (14.0 ypc). That was a massive, massive dropoff, and it's wholly attributable to the fact that Warner no longer had an NFL-caliber arm last year. Warner was essentially just post-surgery Chad Pennington- good decisions, solid accuracy, no arm strength. This year, Fitzgerald is a near-lock to return to the 13.5-15 ypc range. If he gets as many catches as last year at a normal ypc total (14 yards), then he'll get 1350 yards this year. If he matches last year's yardage total (1092 yards) at a more normal ypc, that means he only got 78 receptions. Between the two (97/1350 and 78/1092), I think the first option is far more likely given the sheer volume of targets Fitzgerald is going to receive next year. 78 receptions on 160 targets is a 49% catch%, and I don't see any way Fitz ever puts up a sub-50% catch%.So... based on the fact that Fitzgerald is the only option in town, I think he's a lock for 150+ targets. Based on Fitzgerald's career to date (as well as the fact that Leinart has an NFL-caliber arm, unlike Kurt Warner 2009), I think Fitzgerald is a lock for 13-15 ypc. His career catch% is 61.6%, and he's only once been below 60% (55.8% as a rookie). Accounting for all those facts, we get the following ranges of production-150 targets, 55% catch%, 13 ypc (low end of the targets, career low catch%, second worst ypc of career) = 83/1072165 targets, 62% catch%, 14 ypc (high end of the targets, career average catch% and ypc) = 102/1432If you split the difference, you get 93/1252, which isn't very scientific but which looks good enough for me. Add in 8 TDs, which would match his career low for a 16-game season (set his rookie year) and you've got 93/1252/8.

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I don't think you should wholly discount last season's yards per reception as an aberration that won't repeat itself. Andre Johnson had a much lower yards per catch when he was catching passes from David Carr before Schaub showed up. Brandon Marshall's yards per catch went down from his career average with Kyle Orton. I think you might be underestimating the impact that poor NFL quarterbacking can have on a receiver's yards per reception. I do think that you're right that both his catches and yards will not stay static. One or the other is going to increase. I would fully expect him to get over a 100 catches next season and I think he's still a good TD threat. Very, very few receivers are proven double digit TD performers year in and year out. I think Fitz is still going to get targets inside the 5 as he has in the past.105 receptions for 1260 yards and 10 touchdowns

Probably gonna be a rough year for Fitzy. Crap QB now has the reigns all year. Loss of Boldin means more doubling up or even tripling up on Fitz.....this might be one of his worst years on record

80-1100-6

SSOG said:

Go deep said:

I know Fitz has had success with Boldin out of the lineup in the past, but now he has to do it for a full season, and without a good QB. Im sure Fitzgerald could beat tough coverages, but beating coverage has as much to do with the QB as the WR. Losing Bolidn doesnt just hurt as far as taking some coverage from Fitz, but having boldin helped to keep the chains moving. Last year Fitz caught 97 passes for 1092 yards, and 13 TD's. Im projecting his catches and yards will be close to last years, but i see a 25-30% drop in TD's. I would be slightly suprised if he hits double digits TD's in 2010.

I dont see any reason why anyone thinks his numbers can improve from last year, when he ranked 5th in fantasy points.

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I'm going to say that I think there's pretty much no chance whatsoever that both Fitz's catches *AND* his yards remain relatively static from last year. Either his yards remain static and his catches go down substantially, or else his catches remain static and his yards go up substantially. Last year's ypc was a huge aberration. For his career, his ypc has progressed from 13.4, to 13.7, to 13.7, to 14.1, to 14.9- that's a steady increase for five straight seasons. Then last year he posted a ypc of 11.3, more than two full yards below his career low (set as a rookie) and almost THREE YARDS below his career average to that point (14.0 ypc). That was a massive, massive dropoff, and it's wholly attributable to the fact that Warner no longer had an NFL-caliber arm last year. Warner was essentially just post-surgery Chad Pennington- good decisions, solid accuracy, no arm strength. This year, Fitzgerald is a near-lock to return to the 13.5-15 ypc range. If he gets as many catches as last year at a normal ypc total (14 yards), then he'll get 1350 yards this year. If he matches last year's yardage total (1092 yards) at a more normal ypc, that means he only got 78 receptions. Between the two (97/1350 and 78/1092), I think the first option is far more likely given the sheer volume of targets Fitzgerald is going to receive next year. 78 receptions on 160 targets is a 49% catch%, and I don't see any way Fitz ever puts up a sub-50% catch%.So... based on the fact that Fitzgerald is the only option in town, I think he's a lock for 150+ targets. Based on Fitzgerald's career to date (as well as the fact that Leinart has an NFL-caliber arm, unlike Kurt Warner 2009), I think Fitzgerald is a lock for 13-15 ypc. His career catch% is 61.6%, and he's only once been below 60% (55.8% as a rookie). Accounting for all those facts, we get the following ranges of production-

150 targets, 55% catch%, 13 ypc (low end of the targets, career low catch%, second worst ypc of career) = 83/1072

165 targets, 62% catch%, 14 ypc (high end of the targets, career average catch% and ypc) = 102/1432

If you split the difference, you get 93/1252, which isn't very scientific but which looks good enough for me. Add in 8 TDs, which would match his career low for a 16-game season (set his rookie year) and you've got 93/1252/8.

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Even if this is true, which i doubt, since Boldin and Breaston didnt seem to be affected, what makes you think Leinart and additional coverage is going to do to help? To me, Fitzgeralds success is going to depend alot on the running game. Not only to relieve some coverage, but also to keep the chains moving.

SSOG said:

Go deep said:

I know Fitz has had success with Boldin out of the lineup in the past, but now he has to do it for a full season, and without a good QB. Im sure Fitzgerald could beat tough coverages, but beating coverage has as much to do with the QB as the WR. Losing Bolidn doesnt just hurt as far as taking some coverage from Fitz, but having boldin helped to keep the chains moving. Last year Fitz caught 97 passes for 1092 yards, and 13 TD's. Im projecting his catches and yards will be close to last years, but i see a 25-30% drop in TD's. I would be slightly suprised if he hits double digits TD's in 2010.I dont see any reason why anyone thinks his numbers can improve from last year, when he ranked 5th in fantasy points.

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I'm going to say that I think there's pretty much no chance whatsoever that both Fitz's catches *AND* his yards remain relatively static from last year. Either his yards remain static and his catches go down substantially, or else his catches remain static and his yards go up substantially. Last year's ypc was a huge aberration. For his career, his ypc has progressed from 13.4, to 13.7, to 13.7, to 14.1, to 14.9- that's a steady increase for five straight seasons. Then last year he posted a ypc of 11.3, more than two full yards below his career low (set as a rookie) and almost THREE YARDS below his career average to that point (14.0 ypc). That was a massive, massive dropoff, and it's wholly attributable to the fact that Warner no longer had an NFL-caliber arm last year. Warner was essentially just post-surgery Chad Pennington- good decisions, solid accuracy, no arm strength. This year, Fitzgerald is a near-lock to return to the 13.5-15 ypc range. If he gets as many catches as last year at a normal ypc total (14 yards), then he'll get 1350 yards this year. If he matches last year's yardage total (1092 yards) at a more normal ypc, that means he only got 78 receptions. Between the two (97/1350 and 78/1092), I think the first option is far more likely given the sheer volume of targets Fitzgerald is going to receive next year. 78 receptions on 160 targets is a 49% catch%, and I don't see any way Fitz ever puts up a sub-50% catch%.So... based on the fact that Fitzgerald is the only option in town, I think he's a lock for 150+ targets. Based on Fitzgerald's career to date (as well as the fact that Leinart has an NFL-caliber arm, unlike Kurt Warner 2009), I think Fitzgerald is a lock for 13-15 ypc. His career catch% is 61.6%, and he's only once been below 60% (55.8% as a rookie). Accounting for all those facts, we get the following ranges of production-150 targets, 55% catch%, 13 ypc (low end of the targets, career low catch%, second worst ypc of career) = 83/1072165 targets, 62% catch%, 14 ypc (high end of the targets, career average catch% and ypc) = 102/1432If you split the difference, you get 93/1252, which isn't very scientific but which looks good enough for me. Add in 8 TDs, which would match his career low for a 16-game season (set his rookie year) and you've got 93/1252/8.

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I think you are setting your floor too high. Just look at the numbers Fitz has posted with Leinart over the years (which I posted above)... they scale to 80/989/5 over 16 games. And at least some of those games happened when (a) Boldin was playing and (b) the offense was more pass heavy than it is likely to be going forward.As for ypr, he averaged 12.4 ypr in those games with Leinart, compared to 14 ypr in all other career games.

SSOG said:

Larry Fitzgerald's ypc dropped precipitously because Warner's arm was shot last year and he couldn't get the ball down the field with any accuracy. That's why Kurt Warner is out of the league today. For all his other faults, Leinart has the precise asset needed to correct Fitzgerald's drop in ypc- an NFL-caliber arm.

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I like the insight here...I went to research it even further and statistically, it's incredible the impact of Warner's inability to get the ball downfield had on Fitz.Fitzgerald: On passes thrown 21+ yards in the air

2009: 3/87/2

2008: 10/429/3

Warner: On passes thrown 21+ yards in the air

2009: 10/37/303/3/5

2008: 20/41/811/5/3

...it's really stunning to see the decrease so explicitly from one year to the next and how it affected Fitz and how from 2008 to 2009, Warner lost the ability to make plays down the field. On this basis, you would think that there would be an opportunity for Leinart to come in, show and demonstrate an improvement in this area of the passing game. Here's the problem. These are Leinart's career stats when throwing the ball 21+ yards in the air.

Leinart: 20/64/768/3/6

Historically, Leinart has not shown any ability to improve from the level of what Warner was performing at in the intermediate-to-deep passing game in his final season. And the knock on Leinart coming into the NFL before he started popping up with all sorts of warts, was his arm.

So I think the bet you are placing is going to be on whether you think Leinart truly can make strides in his game. Because rest assured, teams are going to give him the opportunity to beat them deep. Will he be able to take advantage of it? The acquisition of Derek Anderson and his big but erratic arm make quite a bit more sense now.

As for Fitz, while his year in 2009 was largely affected by Warner's decline...I don't think you can count on too many player who are close to a mortal lock for 1100-1200 yards and 10 TD's. With Boldin out of the picture, the passing game is going to rely on Fitz even more in a move the chains capacity. There are probably more receptions to be had out there for him and I could see him setting a career high in that category. And with the Cardinals being a 600 pass attempts team these last couple of years, it would be tough to change their personality to the extreme of even just a 500 attempts in one off-season. So long as Fitz stays healthy, he'll get his production and continue to be a week-in-week out threat.

Prediction: 106 Receptions, 1287 Receiving Yards, 12.1 YPC, 11 TD's.

Creed Bratton said:

I don't think you should wholly discount last season's yards per reception as an aberration that won't repeat itself. Andre Johnson had a much lower yards per catch when he was catching passes from David Carr before Schaub showed up. Brandon Marshall's yards per catch went down from his career average with Kyle Orton. I think you might be underestimating the impact that poor NFL quarterbacking can have on a receiver's yards per reception.

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I would argue that both of those ypc totals were the result of a schematic shift, not the result of poor QBing. Andre Johnson played with David Carr in '03 and '04 and averaged 14.8 and 14.5 yards per catch. He played with Carr in '05 and '06 and averaged 10.9 and 11.1 yards per catch. You want to blame those ypc totals on how bad Carr was while ignoring the fact that two of Andre Johnson's top 3 seasons in ypc came with Carr under center. You're also overlooking the obvious explanation. What happened in the 2005 offseason that might have had an impact on Johnson's ypc? Gary Kubiak was hired. Similarly, what happened in the 2008 offseason that might have impacted Marshall's ypc? Sure, Orton was brought in... but so was Josh McDaniels.I think that poor QBing can have SOME impact on ypc (which is why I projected Fitzgerald's ypc floor a full yard below his pre-2009 average and a half yard below his previous career worst), but I think that scheme has more impact than QB, and Fitzgerald is still playing in the same scheme for the same offensive minds under whom he set his career highs in ypc.

Just Win Baby said:

I think you are setting your floor too high. Just look at the numbers Fitz has posted with Leinart over the years (which I posted above)... they scale to 80/989/5 over 16 games. And at least some of those games happened when (a) Boldin was playing and (b) the offense was more pass heavy than it is likely to be going forward.

As for ypr, he averaged 12.4 ypr in those games with Leinart, compared to 14 ypr in all other career games.

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I don't. Those floors equal out to the worst catch% of Fitzgerald's career, the second-worst YPC of Fitzgerald's career (ahead of last year's outlier season), and the lowest target total outside of Fitzgerald's rookie year and his 3rd season (injured). I'd say each and every one of those floors is very reasonable. Speaking more specifically... which of those do you disagree with? You mentioned the fact that Fitz averaged 12.4 ypc with Leinart... if you sub 12.4 in instead of 13.0, his "floor" falls by less than 50 yards. Outside of the ypc value (and personally I think 13.0 is a more realistic floor than 12.4, given Fitzgerald's history), which of my "floor assumptions" do you disagree with?The problem with the "games where Leinart had 20+ passing attempts" sample is that 10 of the 15 games in the sample came in 2006, when Matt Leinart was a rookie and when Larry Fitzgerald had his worst season as a pro (which wasn't just a result of Leinart being a rookie- his numbers with Warner were down across the board that year, too). So the sample isn't really that representative of how Fitzgerald will do with Leinart next year. Further, it assumes that Leinart is as bad going forward as he was looking back... while ignoring the fact that if Leinart *IS* as bad going forward as he was looking back, Leinart is going to get himself replaced in a hurry. If you look at a different sample, the results are radically different. For instance, if you toss out his rookie year, Fitzgerald averages 5.9rec, 77 yds, 0.41 TDs per game when Warner doesn't play, which works out to 94 rec, 1230 yds, 6 TDs- substantially above my "floor" projection for Fitz. If you look at how Fitzgerald did with Leinart over the second half of 2006, Fitzgerald was pulling down 82.4 yards per game, which works out to a 1319 yard season. In '04, Josh McCown started 4 games. In those 4 games, Fitzgerald averaged 5.8 grabs for 86.3 yards and .83 TDs- that's 93/1380/13 over a full season. With Josh McCown. Leinart started 5 games in 2007, and Fitzgerald averaged 6.8 grabs for 89.6 yards and .2 scores (prorates to 109/1433/3). There has been a lot of sustained production with non-Warner QBs in Fitzgerald's history. Heck, even last year counts as sustained production with a non-Warner QB in my book, because Warner was a shell of his 2008 self.

Go deep said:

Even if this is true, which i doubt, since Boldin and Breaston didnt seem to be affected, what makes you think Leinart and additional coverage is going to do to help? To me, Fitzgeralds success is going to depend alot on the running game. Not only to relieve some coverage, but also to keep the chains moving.

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Boldin and Breaston weren't affected because they aren't as involved in the deep game as Fitzgerald. Both guys have career ypcs below 13, and that's even overestimating how deep they're running because the strength of both WRs is what they can do after the catch, whereas Fitzgerald's strength is what he can do before the catch.Anyway, I think Leinart will help because he's more capable of throwing deep than the 2009 iteration of Kurt Warner. I don't think the tougher coverages are going to matter because Larry Fitzgerald is the best in the league at beating tough coverages (as shown by the link I posted earlier). At the end of the day, teams can't ignore Breaston or Wells or Hightower. Arizona isn't Detroit where opponents are just going to triple Fitz and dare the Cardinals to find some other way to beat them. Fitz will see more than his share of doubles, but there's nothing remotely new about that.

I think a lot of people are projecting Fitzgerald as if Matt Leinart is Jamarcus Russell. He's not. As I pointed out earlier, all Matt Leinart needs to be for Fitz to flourish is Josh McCown- something I think is well within his reach.

I hope that some of the opinions expressed here are shared by my league mates. Larry Fitzgerald is a special NFL player, blessed with athleticism, football smarts, excellent hands, and a great work ethic. Even though the Cardinals lost Boldin, they still have Breaston, Doucet and added Andre Roberts. Each of these guys can play so although I am a huge Boldin fan, I don't think that Arizona will miss him too badly.

I am not extremely confident in Matt Leinart, but regardless of how successful he is, I still expect Fitzgerald to have a great season. Some of the earlier projections do not match up to his current ADP as WR 2 and 12 overall though. I anticipate him having a very good year, but being drafted as the second WR is a challenge to meet the expected production.

Over the past three seasons, Fitzgerald has been highly targeted, averaging right at 10.0 per game. He has had over 95 catches each year and averaged a 62.0% catch rate. I expect that his ypc will rise to near career levels in 2010. Although, that slipped to 11.3, he has a career average of 13.5.

Larry Fitzgerald 16 gms 155 targets 96 catches 1344 yds 14.0 ypc and 12 TDs

SSOG said:

Creed Bratton said:

I don't think you should wholly discount last season's yards per reception as an aberration that won't repeat itself. Andre Johnson had a much lower yards per catch when he was catching passes from David Carr before Schaub showed up. Brandon Marshall's yards per catch went down from his career average with Kyle Orton. I think you might be underestimating the impact that poor NFL quarterbacking can have on a receiver's yards per reception.

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I would argue that both of those ypc totals were the result of a schematic shift, not the result of poor QBing. Andre Johnson played with David Carr in '03 and '04 and averaged 14.8 and 14.5 yards per catch. He played with Carr in '05 and '06 and averaged 10.9 and 11.1 yards per catch. You want to blame those ypc totals on how bad Carr was while ignoring the fact that two of Andre Johnson's top 3 seasons in ypc came with Carr under center. You're also overlooking the obvious explanation. What happened in the 2005 offseason that might have had an impact on Johnson's ypc? Gary Kubiak was hired. Similarly, what happened in the 2008 offseason that might have impacted Marshall's ypc? Sure, Orton was brought in... but so was Josh McDaniels.I think that poor QBing can have SOME impact on ypc (which is why I projected Fitzgerald's ypc floor a full yard below his pre-2009 average and a half yard below his previous career worst), but I think that scheme has more impact than QB, and Fitzgerald is still playing in the same scheme for the same offensive minds under whom he set his career highs in ypc.

Just Win Baby said:

I think you are setting your floor too high. Just look at the numbers Fitz has posted with Leinart over the years (which I posted above)... they scale to 80/989/5 over 16 games. And at least some of those games happened when (a) Boldin was playing and (b) the offense was more pass heavy than it is likely to be going forward.

As for ypr, he averaged 12.4 ypr in those games with Leinart, compared to 14 ypr in all other career games.

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I don't. Those floors equal out to the worst catch% of Fitzgerald's career, the second-worst YPC of Fitzgerald's career (ahead of last year's outlier season), and the lowest target total outside of Fitzgerald's rookie year and his 3rd season (injured). I'd say each and every one of those floors is very reasonable. Speaking more specifically... which of those do you disagree with? You mentioned the fact that Fitz averaged 12.4 ypc with Leinart... if you sub 12.4 in instead of 13.0, his "floor" falls by less than 50 yards. Outside of the ypc value (and personally I think 13.0 is a more realistic floor than 12.4, given Fitzgerald's history), which of my "floor assumptions" do you disagree with?The problem with the "games where Leinart had 20+ passing attempts" sample is that 10 of the 15 games in the sample came in 2006, when Matt Leinart was a rookie and when Larry Fitzgerald had his worst season as a pro (which wasn't just a result of Leinart being a rookie- his numbers with Warner were down across the board that year, too). So the sample isn't really that representative of how Fitzgerald will do with Leinart next year. Further, it assumes that Leinart is as bad going forward as he was looking back... while ignoring the fact that if Leinart *IS* as bad going forward as he was looking back, Leinart is going to get himself replaced in a hurry. If you look at a different sample, the results are radically different. For instance, if you toss out his rookie year, Fitzgerald averages 5.9rec, 77 yds, 0.41 TDs per game when Warner doesn't play, which works out to 94 rec, 1230 yds, 6 TDs- substantially above my "floor" projection for Fitz. If you look at how Fitzgerald did with Leinart over the second half of 2006, Fitzgerald was pulling down 82.4 yards per game, which works out to a 1319 yard season. In '04, Josh McCown started 4 games. In those 4 games, Fitzgerald averaged 5.8 grabs for 86.3 yards and .83 TDs- that's 93/1380/13 over a full season. With Josh McCown. Leinart started 5 games in 2007, and Fitzgerald averaged 6.8 grabs for 89.6 yards and .2 scores (prorates to 109/1433/3). There has been a lot of sustained production with non-Warner QBs in Fitzgerald's history. Heck, even last year counts as sustained production with a non-Warner QB in my book, because Warner was a shell of his 2008 self.

Go deep said:

Even if this is true, which i doubt, since Boldin and Breaston didnt seem to be affected, what makes you think Leinart and additional coverage is going to do to help? To me, Fitzgeralds success is going to depend alot on the running game. Not only to relieve some coverage, but also to keep the chains moving.

Click to expand...

Boldin and Breaston weren't affected because they aren't as involved in the deep game as Fitzgerald. Both guys have career ypcs below 13, and that's even overestimating how deep they're running because the strength of both WRs is what they can do after the catch, whereas Fitzgerald's strength is what he can do before the catch.Anyway, I think Leinart will help because he's more capable of throwing deep than the 2009 iteration of Kurt Warner. I don't think the tougher coverages are going to matter because Larry Fitzgerald is the best in the league at beating tough coverages (as shown by the link I posted earlier). At the end of the day, teams can't ignore Breaston or Wells or Hightower. Arizona isn't Detroit where opponents are just going to triple Fitz and dare the Cardinals to find some other way to beat them. Fitz will see more than his share of doubles, but there's nothing remotely new about that.

I think a lot of people are projecting Fitzgerald as if Matt Leinart is Jamarcus Russell. He's not. As I pointed out earlier, all Matt Leinart needs to be for Fitz to flourish is Josh McCown- something I think is well within his reach.

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Leinart is not a good QB, but his strength is his accuracy in the short passing game. He is absolutely horrible throwing more than 20 yards down the field.

Over Larry Fitzgerald's 98 games as an NFL WR he has been elite, and I absolutely love him.

However, you cannot ignore the facts and they are dismal when you compare his performance with Leinart.

With Kurt Warner, he averaged 12.5 ppg, 83.0 yards/appearance, and 0.8 TD's/ game [63 QB appearances].

With Matt Leinart, he averaged 6.9 ppg, 56.5 yards/appearance, and 0.3 TD's/ game [18 QB appearances].

With other QB's, he averaged 7.8 ppg, 51.5 yards/appearance, and 0.5 TD's/ game [30 QB appearances].

The drop-off in performance is undeniable ... in fact it's incredible. A 45% drop-off with Leinart at the helm, and note that it is only 38% with other QB's.

Predicting Fitzgerald's yardage and TD's to equal anywhere near his Warner numbers is shear insanity if you ask me. Additionally I haven't even touched on the absence of Boldin.

If you dissect things more closely and separate out Boldin's injury games.

With Kurt Warner, he averaged 15.4 ppg, 93.0 yards/appearance, and 1.1 TD's/ game [13 QB appearances].

With Matt Leinart, he averaged 5.7 ppg, 60.7 yards/appearance, and 0.0 TD's/ game[3 QB appearances].

With other QB's, he averaged 6.9 ppg, 58.5 yards/appearance, and 0.3 TD's/ game[8 QB appearances].

Note that his yardage went up no matter which QB was throwing to him; however, Leinart increased the least and the TD production went to ZERO.

Warner and Fitzgerald were able to somehow improve Larry's production!

Neither Leinart or the other Arizona QB's were able to do so ... in fact their production went down comparatively.

As I stated when I started this thread, I love Larry ...

In my opinion, Larry will not exceed 960 yards and 6 TD's.

Dancing Bear said:

Over Larry Fitzgerald's 98 games as an NFL WR he has been elite, and I absolutely love him.However, you cannot ignore the facts and they are dismal when you compare his performance with Leinart.With Kurt Warner, he averaged 12.5 ppg, 83.0 yards/appearance, and 0.8 TD's/ game [63 QB appearances].With Matt Leinart, he averaged 6.9 ppg, 56.5 yards/appearance, and 0.3 TD's/ game [18 QB appearances].With other QB's, he averaged 7.8 ppg, 51.5 yards/appearance, and 0.5 TD's/ game [30 QB appearances].The drop-off in performance is undeniable ... in fact it's incredible. A 45% drop-off with Leinart at the helm, and note that it is only 38% with other QB's.Predicting Fitzgerald's yardage and TD's to equal anywhere near his Warner numbers is shear insanity if you ask me. Additionally I haven't even touched on the absence of Boldin.If you dissect things more closely and separate out Boldin's injury games.With Kurt Warner, he averaged 15.4 ppg, 93.0 yards/appearance, and 1.1 TD's/ game [13 QB appearances].With Matt Leinart, he averaged 5.7 ppg, 60.7 yards/appearance, and 0.0 TD's/ game[3 QB appearances].With other QB's, he averaged 6.9 ppg, 58.5 yards/appearance, and 0.3 TD's/ game[8 QB appearances].Note that his yardage went up no matter which QB was throwing to him; however, Leinart increased the least and the TD production went to ZERO.Warner and Fitzgerald were able to somehow improve Larry's production!Neither Leinart or the other Arizona QB's were able to do so ... in fact their production went down comparatively.As I stated when I started this thread, I love Larry ...In my opinion, Larry will not exceed 960 yards and 6 TD's.

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All of that is the under the assumption that Matt Leinart hasn't improved at all and will not be better in 2010 than he was his rookie or second year (whenever he actually got a chance to play). I'm not saying Leinart is going to be great, or even that good, but if he's significantly better than what he was, I think there's a chance Fitzgerald puts up better numbers this year. Even if he's only slightly better, I think Fitzgerald has a typical Fitz like year. Warner probably should have retired after '08. He's a gamer and played through injury, but his arm was COMPLETELY shot last year and I don't think that's being talked about enough. I think there were games were he grimaced at the idea of completing a pass longer than 15 yards in the air... maybe even physically couldn't do it. Comparing "noodle arm" Leinart to someone who physically can't throw the football down the field is illogical and grossly overstated. Boldin was not a guy who attracted double coverage, so it's not like Fitzgerald is going to be seeing defenses play him completely different than what he's seen in the past. He'll still have a safety over the top most of the time and defenses will continue to shade over to his side of the field. I think Fitzgerald will be fine. Wouldn't surprise me to put up some better numbers in certain categories this year compared to last at all.

makes me wonder if Leinart to Fitz. might be better given the off season.

LTF said:

All of that is the under the assumption that Matt Leinart hasn't improved at all and will not be better in 2010 than he was his rookie or second year (whenever he actually got a chance to play).

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Leinart was given the QB job starting with week #05 in 2006. He started 12 straight games through week #16. He was handed the starting gig with a full pre-season of getting #1 reps for 2007. Leinart was so horrible the reins were given to Warner after week #05. Warner then started the next two full seasons and Leinart continued being awful.Leinart may have improved ... he may not have ... that's up to you to guess. However, the body of evidence we have suggests that he was inferior to Warner with Boldin, and now Boldin is gone. They have no running game to take the pressure off ... they have no replacements for Boldin, which means significant trouble for Fitzgerald to get open against double-teams/ triple-teams.Boldin was one of the top 10 WR in the NFL over the past 7 seasons. Warner a top 10 QB in the NFL over the past 3 years. Those are huge chunks to lose in your armor. Keep in mind what they achieved in the passing game during this time with NO running game.

They play a pretty easy schedule and the entirely new concept of a power running game to play action from should keep Fitzgerald around his career averages in touchdowns and yards but perhaps a few less catches. YPC returns to at least the 13.0 yd level. 79/1125/9.

Leinart did look pretty bad even in relief last year. I'll have to see him in preseason before I think about drafting any of these guys. It's a safe bet that Fitz will score top ten points but if he's a top 3 WR pick then it may be better to leave him on the board.

LTF said:

Dancing Bear said:

Over Larry Fitzgerald's 98 games as an NFL WR he has been elite, and I absolutely love him.However, you cannot ignore the facts and they are dismal when you compare his performance with Leinart.With Kurt Warner, he averaged 12.5 ppg, 83.0 yards/appearance, and 0.8 TD's/ game [63 QB appearances].With Matt Leinart, he averaged 6.9 ppg, 56.5 yards/appearance, and 0.3 TD's/ game [18 QB appearances].With other QB's, he averaged 7.8 ppg, 51.5 yards/appearance, and 0.5 TD's/ game [30 QB appearances].The drop-off in performance is undeniable ... in fact it's incredible. A 45% drop-off with Leinart at the helm, and note that it is only 38% with other QB's.Predicting Fitzgerald's yardage and TD's to equal anywhere near his Warner numbers is shear insanity if you ask me. Additionally I haven't even touched on the absence of Boldin.If you dissect things more closely and separate out Boldin's injury games.With Kurt Warner, he averaged 15.4 ppg, 93.0 yards/appearance, and 1.1 TD's/ game [13 QB appearances].With Matt Leinart, he averaged 5.7 ppg, 60.7 yards/appearance, and 0.0 TD's/ game[3 QB appearances].With other QB's, he averaged 6.9 ppg, 58.5 yards/appearance, and 0.3 TD's/ game[8 QB appearances].Note that his yardage went up no matter which QB was throwing to him; however, Leinart increased the least and the TD production went to ZERO.Warner and Fitzgerald were able to somehow improve Larry's production!Neither Leinart or the other Arizona QB's were able to do so ... in fact their production went down comparatively.As I stated when I started this thread, I love Larry ...In my opinion, Larry will not exceed 960 yards and 6 TD's.

Click to expand...

All of that is the under the assumption that Matt Leinart hasn't improved at all and will not be better in 2010 than he was his rookie or second year (whenever he actually got a chance to play). I'm not saying Leinart is going to be great, or even that good, but if he's significantly better than what he was, I think there's a chance Fitzgerald puts up better numbers this year. Even if he's only slightly better, I think Fitzgerald has a typical Fitz like year. Warner probably should have retired after '08. He's a gamer and played through injury, but his arm was COMPLETELY shot last year and I don't think that's being talked about enough. I think there were games were he grimaced at the idea of completing a pass longer than 15 yards in the air... maybe even physically couldn't do it. Comparing "noodle arm" Leinart to someone who physically can't throw the football down the field is illogical and grossly overstated. Boldin was not a guy who attracted double coverage, so it's not like Fitzgerald is going to be seeing defenses play him completely different than what he's seen in the past. He'll still have a safety over the top most of the time and defenses will continue to shade over to his side of the field. I think Fitzgerald will be fine. Wouldn't surprise me to put up some better numbers in certain categories this year compared to last at all.

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While Leinart may have improved he was Jamarcus Russel bad in his 5 starts in 2007. The difference between his stats and what Warner put up against the same teams when he came in as relief are so staggering. Matty L was 23/47 (49%) for 246 yards (5.23 y/a) 0 TDs 1 INT. Warner was 43/69 (62%) 580 yards (8.4 y/a) 4 TDs and 1 INT. So bad that when Warner left the Carolina game Tim Rattay's 12/24 3 INT passing kept Leinart on the bench. Dancing Bear's breakdown has convinced me that the Jump that Leinart has to make for Fitz to be worth his draft slot is to large for it to be > 50%.If DA 'wins' the job I may re-evaluate since he has at least shown the ######ed locking in abilities WITH the arm to force balls to make me think Fitz could be a 140 target guy.

Always a big Fitz fan. Had dinner with him tonight. OK, well he and his family were at the table next to mine. We were at a restaurant in an Eastern suburb of the Twin Cities.

Carryover from the Breaston thread.

QB Kurt Warner and wideout Q Boldin, two components of that highly touted passing game of years past are gone. With the still unproven Leinart set to take the reins this season at QB, Whisenhunt is looking to establish an offense similar to the Steelers circa 2005-2007. That is a run first mentality with an efficient passing game. Wells and Hightower will be a great complement to eachother in the running game and Fitzgerald will still be the #1 WR on this team.

Let's look at 2009 stats

http://www.nfl.com/teams/arizonacardinals/...;seasonType=REG

According to the stats at the above site, the offense last year had 985 total offensive plays.

594 pass attempts

365 rushing attempts

I guess the difference of 26 plays that were not pass attempts or rushing attempts were some unaccounted play that was neither rush nor pass.

594/985 = 60% pass

365/985 = 37.1& rush

So if Wiz wants to balance the attack, let's take a rough estimation and say he wants 50-50 mix of run/pass. Running plays may take more time off the clock, as pass plays may result in incompletions. So lets drop total plays by 8% from 985 to 906.

906/2 = 453 run and 453 pass plays.

Warner and Leinart both completed 66% of their passes, though Warner had 513 attempts to Leinart's 77. Many would say that Leinart is not the same accurate passer as Warner, so let's lower his percentage rate over a larger number of attempts from 66% to 62%.

I would project Leinart to get 90% of the total projected 453 pass plays. That is 408 attempts. 62% completion percentage on 408 is 253 completions. But I guess we should project total completion for all passers. So 453 at 61% ( I think the total completions % for all passers will still be lower than Leinart's) is 276.

Last year, Warner had 339 completions and Leinart had 51.

Rec. break downs as follows:

Fitz had 97 for 1092 and 13 td

Q had 84 for 1024 and 4 td

Breaston had 55/712/3

Hightower had 63/428/0

And 9 others had 93 for 944 and 7 td

Q is gone. Breaston, a former #1 pick has shown himself a good wr, catching 77 for over 1000 in 2008.

If 276 completions are a projected...I would say the reception breakdown would be:

Fitz = 35%

Breaston = 25%

Doucet = 10%

Hightower = 15%

Others = 15%

So that would be Fitz at 97 rec. Average 13.5 yards per catch for 1304 yards and 10 tds

Of course, I could be completely wrong at all of that conjecture.

Hoot&HoLLer said:

Carryover from the Breaston thread.

QB Kurt Warner and wideout Q Boldin, two components of that highly touted passing game of years past are gone. With the still unproven Leinart set to take the reins this season at QB, Whisenhunt is looking to establish an offense similar to the Steelers circa 2005-2007. That is a run first mentality with an efficient passing game. Wells and Hightower will be a great complement to eachother in the running game and Fitzgerald will still be the #1 WR on this team.

Let's look at 2009 stats

http://www.nfl.com/teams/arizonacardinals/...;seasonType=REG

According to the stats at the above site, the offense last year had 985 total offensive plays.

594 pass attempts

365 rushing attempts

I guess the difference of 26 plays that were not pass attempts or rushing attempts were some unaccounted play that was neither rush nor pass.

594/985 = 60% pass

365/985 = 37.1& rush

So if Wiz wants to balance the attack, let's take a rough estimation and say he wants 50-50 mix of run/pass. Running plays may take more time off the clock, as pass plays may result in incompletions. So lets drop total plays by 8% from 985 to 906.

906/2 = 453 run and 453 pass plays.

Warner and Leinart both completed 66% of their passes, though Warner had 513 attempts to Leinart's 77. Many would say that Leinart is not the same accurate passer as Warner, so let's lower his percentage rate over a larger number of attempts from 66% to 62%.

I would project Leinart to get 90% of the total projected 453 pass plays. That is 408 attempts. 62% completion percentage on 408 is 253 completions. But I guess we should project total completion for all passers. So 453 at 61% ( I think the total completions % for all passers will still be lower than Leinart's) is 276.

Last year, Warner had 339 completions and Leinart had 51.

Rec. break downs as follows:

Fitz had 97 for 1092 and 13 td

Q had 84 for 1024 and 4 td

Breaston had 55/712/3

Hightower had 63/428/0

And 9 others had 93 for 944 and 7 td

Q is gone. Breaston, a former #1 pick has shown himself a good wr, catching 77 for over 1000 in 2008.

If 276 completions are a projected...I would say the reception breakdown would be:

Fitz = 35%

Breaston = 25%

Doucet = 10%

Hightower = 15%

Others = 15%

So that would be Fitz at 97 rec. Average 13.5 yards per catch for 1304 yards and 10 tds

Of course, I could be completely wrong at all of that conjecture.

Click to expand...

I don't think a lot of those numbers pass the smell test. For instance, you're casually dropping the Cardinals' play count from 985 to 906 because running plays take more time off the clock. That seems reasonable, but it ignores two key realities: first off, running plays gain fewer yards. You'll never see a drive that contains 15 passing plays, but you'll see plenty of drives every season that contain 15 running plays. More runs = more plays per drive. Second off, 906 is an absurdly low play total. No team has run fewer than 910 offensive plays since the 2006 Buffalo Bills. Last year, 29 of the 32 teams ran 961 plays or more. 31 of the 32 teams ran 939 plays or more. Even becoming the worst offense in the league probably wouldn't drop Arizona to 906 plays- the St. Louis Rams last year, for instance, still ran a whopping 998 plays. 17 of the top 20 teams in total rushes ran at least 1,000 offensive plays (and if Arizona really adopts a 50/50 run-pass ratio, it'll certainly be among the top 20 rushing teams). The 50/50 run/pass ratio would also be a surprise. Even run-heavy teams still pass more than they run most of the time. Last year, only 5 teams ran more often than they passed... and most of them (Jets, Titans, Panthers) only did it because they had the most unstoppable running games in the league. The other two teams were the Bengals (who for some reason decided to become a team that won on the strength of a grind-it-out running game and a smothering secondary) and the Cleveland Browns (whose #1 receiver was Mohammad Massaquoi).

While I don't necessarily disagree with the conclusion that you reached (I think Fitz is fully capable of 97/1300/10), I do think you've taken the wrong road to get there.

SSOG said:

While I don't necessarily disagree with the conclusion that you reached (I think Fitz is fully capable of 97/1300/10), I do think you've taken the wrong road to get there.

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Sorry, but I disagree with both of you. In my opinion, there's no way that Fitzgerald has 10 TD's in 2010.Leinart only threw 9 TD's total between Boldin & Fitzgerald in all of his appearances combined since joining the NFL [18 total appearances with 12 starts].

Breaston was a reasonable 3rd option receiver with the other 2 on the field, will he step up in Boldin's absence? He had great yardage in 2008, regressed in 2009. He has only 7 TD's total. He is no Anquan Boldin ...

I don't see how Leinart will now be able to magically spread the field ... They still have no running game. It's going to be a long, long season for the Cardinals and Larry Fitzgerald.

71 receptions, 960 yards receiving and 6 TD's.

awesome stuff....anyone heard how Matt's doing in camp?

Fitz is the only easy target for Leinart. Everyone else's numbers go down. Fitz - 108/1360/8

Any updates on Fitz--injury? new projections?

90 catches, 1200 yards, 10 TDs with DA at QB.