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Jabar Gaffney, WR, Denver Broncos (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

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Thread Topic: Jabar Gaffney, WR, Denver Broncos

Player Page Link: Jabar Gaffney Player Page

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I think the fact this Spotlight has gotten no replies speaks VOLUMES, and in a way I almost hesitated to bump it because I want Gaffney's upside to remain way off the radar. To my mind, Gaffney is one of a handful of must draft guys (assuming his ADP stays low) as so many people are looking at Eddie Royal and Demaryius Thomas ahead of him. I just don't understand that. Royal was the worst starting wide receiver in the NFL last year (subjectively to be sure, but no one will argue he was good), and Thomas -- while a physical specimen -- is RAW and I'm not sure he'll ever produce as a full-time NFL starter much less do so as a rookie.

 
I think the fact this Spotlight has gotten no replies speaks VOLUMES, and in a way I almost hesitated to bump it because I want Gaffney's upside to remain way off the radar. To my mind, Gaffney is one of a handful of must draft guys (assuming his ADP stays low) as so many people are looking at Eddie Royal and Demaryius Thomas ahead of him. I just don't understand that. Royal was the worst starting wide receiver in the NFL last year (subjectively to be sure, but no one will argue he was good), and Thomas -- while a physical specimen -- is RAW and I'm not sure he'll ever produce as a full-time NFL starter much less do so as a rookie.
Jabar Gaffney just isn't that good of a receiver. I don't know how anybody with his talent level can be considered a must draft player. I understand why you're saying that he's undervalued because his ADP is ridiculously low and I agree that he is a value play. I wouldn't be surprised if I end up with him because he should be valued over Eddie Royal and Thomas but on the other hand I could see either of those players outperforming him or even some unknown free agent. What upside do you realistically think that he has? Am I really that wrong for thinking he's just a journeyman receiver with nothing more than a fluky chance of putting up a thousand yard season over 16 games?
 
Wow, I didn't even realize there was ever a spotlight thread dedicated to Gaffney. I'd really like to hear some educated opinions on this. He's a guy I didn't really give much thought at all about until the 2 theads popped up over the past month or so about him. Is there really a realistic shot that this guy could lead the Broncos in recieving? Is there any upside here? His 54/732 seemed to come quietly last season, aside from the two big weeks at the end of the season.

 
Today I was waiting for a prescription to be filled and stood and glanced at three FF mags. To my amazement one of them had him listed in the top 32 wr's. He isnt 100% off the radar.

 
ssssshhhhhhhhhhh
I was going to post the same thing. I'm not riding on the bandwagon just yet, but unless his ADP starts rising, he'll be a great addition in the later rounds. I wouldn't be confident with him as my 1, 2 or even 3 receiver, but he could be a great flex/bye week guy with upside. At his current ADP I think he's well worth a roster spot. My best guess is 60/800/6 which would be a steal in rounds 13+
 
Gaffney does look like a good value at his current ADP because he is the most experienced receiver in Denver and should be their #1 WR in week 1. However, it is hard to get too excited about a guy who couldn't make it in Houston. He wasn't all that impressive as a #3 WR in New England either. How will an average receiver fare against #1 NFL cornerbacks and Orton tossing the rock? Really.

Projecting success by looking at the last two weeks of the season where he blew up against Philly and had a career game against KC would be folly. No way will opposing defenses allow Gaffney to beat them with no other threats at WR or TE to speak of. 59 receptions for 702 yards and 4 TDs.

I would definitely still draft Gaffney at his current ADP banking on Orton force feeding the ball to him in the first few weeks inflating his value. There is always a stud out there who has a terrible week 1 and the owner starts to panic.

 
I keep hearing about Gaffney based on opportunity, but I've yet to hear anyone capture what kind of player he is.

Is he a speed guy?

A physical "my ball" guy?

A route runner?

A hands guy?

A "find the soft spot in the D" guy?

I'm ready to at least run along side the bandwagon, but I'm not jumping on until someone gives me even a taste of some kind of intrinsic value.

Side note:

While Orton is a terrible fantasy quarterback, he's a better football quarterback then the FF community gives him credit for being.

 
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Jabar Gaffney has been in the league 8 years and his career year was last year with 732 yards as a career high. But he only scored two times and only once in 8 years has he had more than 2 TDs in a season.

Jabar Gaffney is slow. Jabar Gaffney has poor hands. Can't ball.

Mr Wood, please delete this thread before anyone in my league gets too excited about taking Gaffney as a 13th round pick.

 
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I don't think this article is intended as a strong argument for or against Gaffney (although it leans pro-Gaffney) but it is worth a read. Stuart Player Points Gaffney

The key point made in the article is the void left by Marshall (115 rec) and Scheffler (31 rec). As a guy who remembers Gaffney for brick hands in Houston while being the 33rd overall pick, I'm not too keen on him as a player but given rookies' usual low output and Royal's total lack of output, someone's got to pick up some of that slack and Gaffney appears to be in line for a healthy portion of it. Predicting how much is tricky business, but the staff here has him between 66-69 rec at 12.2-13.2 ypr with 4-5 TD. Certainly reasonable numbers for a starting WR in that system which would have him easily outperforming his ADP (150/WR53). But not the numbers that dreams are made of. If he's worth drafting at WR53 depends on what you are shooting for. One could argue that Avery, Chambers, Devin Thomas, Schilens, Berrian, and Walter have higher upsides but come with higher risk for finishing outside of the top 36 WR.
Good take. I wouldn't be shocked if his ypr drops below 12 due to additional attention given to him by the defense and likely more short routes just trying to get completions.

 
Gaffney does look like a good value at his current ADP because he is the most experienced receiver in Denver and should be their #1 WR in week 1. However, it is hard to get too excited about a guy who couldn't make it in Houston. He wasn't all that impressive as a #3 WR in New England either. How will an average receiver fare against #1 NFL cornerbacks and Orton tossing the rock? Really.

Projecting success by looking at the last two weeks of the season where he blew up against Philly and had a career game against KC would be folly. No way will opposing defenses allow Gaffney to beat them with no other threats at WR or TE to speak of. 59 receptions for 702 yards and 4 TDs.

I would definitely still draft Gaffney at his current ADP banking on Orton force feeding the ball to him in the first few weeks inflating his value. There is always a stud out there who has a terrible week 1 and the owner starts to panic.
I agree with this. If I'm going to spend a late round draft choice on a player, I'd like for them to 1) have some upside or 2) demonstrated past success - maybe have one last fleeting success. Gaffney looks like he should be a good sleeper, but:1) Aside from Brady's 50 TD season where Gaffney snagged 5 TD receptions, he's never had more than 2.

2) His 732 yards last season represented a career high, and that was only with the help of a ridiculous 14/213 effort against a checked out KC squad in Week 17.

...to me, even though there are many receptions to be had now with Marshall off to Florida, does Gaffney now draw tougher coverage opposition wee k in week out? How will Kyle Orton fare now without a true #1 WR? Also, you have the Tebow factor. We all speculate that this guy won't see the field in 2010. But I could see McDaniels saying in November "It's Tebow time", if the Broncos have tanked. What then?

I know you mentioned Royal as being a terrible starter last year and it would be tough to argue. But he showed much more in his rookie year and if he's going to be lining up in the slot this year, that might be a better fit for him in McDaniels system. He might come back strong.

Overall, Gaffney is a journeyman. A solid football player who finds a significant role but as a fantasy player, simply rarely makes an impact. He's a Bobby Engram type. A player who someone will draft in a late round and when he doesn't produce, will find himself on the waiver wire quickly with many other 800/4 type WR's.

Prediction: 52 receptions 698 Receiving Yards 3 TD's.

 
JustWinBaby always breaks this stuff down better than I do, but let's look at last year's numbers

Orton threw 541 passes, 6th most(!) in the league.

Here's how the targets broke down

Marshall - 154

Gaffney - 87

Royal - 79

Scheffler - 50

Graham - 43

Moreno - 41

Buckhalter - 38

Stokley - 33

Misc - 29

There is quite a bit of opportunity for targets as 204 of them left town with Marshall & Scheffler. It seems that Gaffney, Royal or D. Thomas will see an unexpected number of passes. I guess it comes down to how you break down the expected targets this year and how many more or less passes you think Denver will throw this year.

It seems to me that barring a rebound from Eddie Royal (not out of the question) that Gaffney will get the most targets on the team. What will he do with them? I don't know. However, in the 13th round I think the Gaffney presents quite a bit of upside given the volume of passes that can come his way.

Here's what i will go with. I'm sure there are some holes in my logic...

115 targets which would be 22nd or so last year (Davone Bess territory)

59% reception rate (last year 62%)

68 catches

12.8 y/c, rough average of last 4 years

868 yards

6 TDs - maybe too optimistic

That would have made him WR27 last year. Current ADP has him at WR53-so yeah he sounds like quite a bargain to me.

 
JustWinBaby always breaks this stuff down better than I do, but let's look at last year's numbers

Orton threw 541 passes, 6th most(!) in the league.

Here's how the targets broke down

Marshall - 154

Gaffney - 87

Royal - 79

Scheffler - 50

Graham - 43

Moreno - 41

Buckhalter - 38

Stokley - 33

Misc - 29

There is quite a bit of opportunity for targets as 204 of them left town with Marshall & Scheffler. It seems that Gaffney, Royal or D. Thomas will see an unexpected number of passes. I guess it comes down to how you break down the expected targets this year and how many more or less passes you think Denver will throw this year.

It seems to me that barring a rebound from Eddie Royal (not out of the question) that Gaffney will get the most targets on the team. What will he do with them? I don't know. However, in the 13th round I think the Gaffney presents quite a bit of upside given the volume of passes that can come his way.

Here's what i will go with. I'm sure there are some holes in my logic...

115 targets which would be 22nd or so last year (Davone Bess territory)

59% reception rate (last year 62%)

68 catches

12.8 y/c, rough average of last 4 years

868 yards

6 TDs - maybe too optimistic

That would have made him WR27 last year. Current ADP has him at WR53-so yeah he sounds like quite a bargain to me.
I like that neighborhood for him. Somewhere in the WR25-WR34 range. That beats his ADP. That makes him a certifiable flex/WR3 in any league with 12 or more teams. So, I like him this year. I think what he has going for him is he is going to be the #1 WR this year. Its hard to see that not be the case. Even if Royal rebounds nicely, his use will be all over the place. That's usually a good thing but Orton is one of those guys that likes to keep going to the well when its working, likes the continuity. Gaffney lined up in a familiar position will enforce that.

Someone said earlier he cant run or catch, etc, and I haven't crunched the numbers to test, but just at a first look, if he's catching 62% of his passes and averaging 12+ yards a catch, that's pretty good.

For comparison sake, Fitz caught 64% of his passes last year. Brandon Marshall caught 65%. Calvin Johnson only caught 49% of his. Vincent Jackson was 63%. Derrick Mason was 54%. So, a lot of guys that we typically think of as being sure-handed are in the same neighborhood (or wose) than Gaffney.

Also, Brandon Marshall also was among the league leaders in yards after catch last year. Gaffney is no Marshall BUT he is the one guy in the league that we can say is now in a roll where the system is designed to allow for some running after the catch. Again, Gaffney is no Marhsall but he will at least have a chance to be in a position to get some additional yards as Marshall did.

 
Kyle Orton will throw for at least 3,000 yards. Denver's running game and their run blocking along the interior of their line is putird. They do have some decent pass blocking OT and even the interior can pass block some as well. With time to throw Orton is going to find Gaffney enough to blow way past the nubmers the rest of you are projecting.

I understand Gaffney has been a mediocre WR at best but McDaniels loves him and has brought him along to NE and now Denver. I harken back to a WR Martz brought in during his reign in Detroit as OC, what was his name? Ah yes, Shaun McDonald had a career best 79 receptions, 943 yds, and 6 TDs. He didn't do much before that season and he really hasn't done a lot since. So does McDonald have no talent or did it take a certain coach to bring that out of him? Maybe it was the system but Gaffney likes McDaniels system. He was the WR4 in NE, certainly was never going to take time away from Moss and Welker so those stats are irrelevent and he wasn't gonna bump Brandon Marshall out of the way either but he's going to get a shot this year.

Fools will mock and laugh but try and breakdown the receiving numbers with Orton throwing for 3,000 yds. How much to the backs and TEs? Can't be a ton, maybe 800-1,000? Leave 2,000 for the WRs and I feel safe in Gaffney grabbing about 35-40% of that.

I project him for 4 catches a game so 64/800/6Tds...nothing flashy but he's a solid WR3/4, bye week special, those numbers would put him int he top30 from last year IIRC. And I think he could creep a little higher if Denver ends up in some shootouts which they will with that defense.

 
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Jabar Gaffney is the poster child for opportunity over talent. The Broncos season could very well be a train wreck. How do you merge those two sentences?

Gaffney is entering his ninth season and his second on the Broncos. He was orginally drafted in the second round, but has never been more than mediocre. He has a career 61.0% reception rate which is average, but his career ypc is 12.3. He has scored 17 TDs on 310 catches with only one season in his eight that he had over two and as already mentioned that was Brady's 50 TD season, which kind of stands out already.

It seems like he is a fantasy bargain going currently as the WR 53 and 150 overall, but consider this. In his previous eight NFL seasons, he has never finished the end of a year ranked better than WR 51. That seems to validate his ADP. I just don't see him flourishing as the top WR. I think that his best chance at a good season is if one or both of Royal and Thomas really show up so that he can play the underneath possession role. Look closely at the numbers below. They represent a career year for the eight year veteran and represent an average game of 3.8 catches for 45 yards nad 0.25 TDs.

Jabar Gaffney 16 gms 98 targets 60 catches 61.2% 720 yards 12.0 ypc and 4 TDs

 
rzrback77:

As much as I appreciate your posts (You are one of the few who provides true "value add"), I think you are over-thinking this one a bit. As you stated "Jabar Gaffney is the poster child for opportunity over talent." You nailed it on the head right there. Dont go any further.

* E. Royal is an enigma. mis-used, miscast..whatever the case...as McDaniels has stated, he is targeted for the slot role.

* Thomas is a raw talent that will take time to develop. Perhaps by the 2nd half he will start to contribute.

* Denver is a train wreck waiting to happen. (again, you nailed it spot on)

* Denver is going to be behind in a lot of games this year. Hence they will be passing a lot.

* Gaffney is the most familiar w/the Denver offensive system.

The above lends strong credence to the assumption that Gaffney will be THE "go to guy" in Denver for the upcoming year.

115 targets @ 60% rate = 69 recpts @ 12.1 per = 835 yds + 5 TD..................ppr scoring = 182.50

At his current ADP, thats a picture perfect WR 3/4 flex type that can help any team.

Just my two cents,

 
I think the fact this Spotlight has gotten no replies speaks VOLUMES, and in a way I almost hesitated to bump it because I want Gaffney's upside to remain way off the radar. To my mind, Gaffney is one of a handful of must draft guys (assuming his ADP stays low) as so many people are looking at Eddie Royal and Demaryius Thomas ahead of him. I just don't understand that. Royal was the worst starting wide receiver in the NFL last year (subjectively to be sure, but no one will argue he was good),
You're using Eddie Royal's horrible year against him, but completely discounting his rookie year, in which he outperformed Gaffney's best season by a large margin. Gaffney could become fantasy relevant in his 9th season after being virtually useless in his first 8, but is that really surer thing than Eddie Royal bouncing back?
 
He has a career 61.0% reception rate which is average,
I'm just going to say this again because I think people are really looking over this. 61% seems average to us in MOST things in life but 61% catch rate of targets in the NFL is really solid. As I said before, the elite WRS like Fitz and Marshall and a few other typically hover around 63-65%. Reggie Wayne is at 67% but look who's throwing to him. But a lot of other guys that have much bigger names or are known for being in that very solid WR ranking range that we are discussing with Gaffney are actually LOWER in their own cath percentage. Calvin Johnson is 49%, Derrick Mason is about 54%. Hines Ward is less than 60%.Not trying to beat this into the ground, just reminding people to not gloss over that 61=62% and call it average. Its actually pretty good.
 
He has a career 61.0% reception rate which is average,
I'm just going to say this again because I think people are really looking over this. 61% seems average to us in MOST things in life but 61% catch rate of targets in the NFL is really solid. As I said before, the elite WRS like Fitz and Marshall and a few other typically hover around 63-65%. Reggie Wayne is at 67% but look who's throwing to him. But a lot of other guys that have much bigger names or are known for being in that very solid WR ranking range that we are discussing with Gaffney are actually LOWER in their own cath percentage. Calvin Johnson is 49%, Derrick Mason is about 54%. Hines Ward is less than 60%.Not trying to beat this into the ground, just reminding people to not gloss over that 61=62% and call it average. Its actually pretty good.
Just looked at the reception percentages for last year and only at those WRs that caught over 50 passes on the season. Gabbney ranked 23rd at 62.1% of the 47 WRs that caught that many passes. So, maybe it could be called pretty good, but 23rd is right in the middle of the list and seems average to me. In his defense, I thought that his yards per catch was on the low side and therefore the 62% rate should have been higher for the shorter passes, but there were only five guys above his ypc that also had higher catch percentage. That is pretty good!
 
He has a career 61.0% reception rate which is average,
I'm just going to say this again because I think people are really looking over this. 61% seems average to us in MOST things in life but 61% catch rate of targets in the NFL is really solid. As I said before, the elite WRS like Fitz and Marshall and a few other typically hover around 63-65%. Reggie Wayne is at 67% but look who's throwing to him. But a lot of other guys that have much bigger names or are known for being in that very solid WR ranking range that we are discussing with Gaffney are actually LOWER in their own cath percentage. Calvin Johnson is 49%, Derrick Mason is about 54%. Hines Ward is less than 60%.Not trying to beat this into the ground, just reminding people to not gloss over that 61=62% and call it average. Its actually pretty good.
Just looked at the reception percentages for last year and only at those WRs that caught over 50 passes on the season. Gabbney ranked 23rd at 62.1% of the 47 WRs that caught that many passes. So, maybe it could be called pretty good, but 23rd is right in the middle of the list and seems average to me. In his defense, I thought that his yards per catch was on the low side and therefore the 62% rate should have been higher for the shorter passes, but there were only five guys above his ypc that also had higher catch percentage. That is pretty good!
I think this is the first piece of evidence to support Gaffney being a productive fantasy starter beyond the fact that the ball in Denver has to go somewhere and there's nobody else. But I'm still skeptical.
 
Creed Bratton said:
I think this is the first piece of evidence to support Gaffney being a productive fantasy starter beyond the fact that the ball in Denver has to go somewhere and there's nobody else. But I'm still skeptical.
Would like to see a spotlight on Bey Bey Thomas/Royal/Decker kind of like the Knox/Aromashodu thread. I think there is value somewhere in there. Just not sure where.
 
He was the WR4 in NE, certainly was never going to take time away from Moss and Welker so those stats are irrelevent and he wasn't gonna bump Brandon Marshall out of the way either but he's going to get a shot this year.
Gaffney signed in NE a year before that and had 11 receptions in 11 games with Reche Caldwell and Troy Brown (35 year old version) getting the starts. Gaffney's 1st year in the system was worse than Royal's year last season.
 
In a redraft, he might be a decent sleeper, just don't get too excited and overpay. A lot is being based on two games at the end of the season under less than typical circumstances (like playing a crappy team with nothing to play for and having no other healthy WRs to throw to in week 17 for example). He had what, half of his total fantasy point production for the year in those last two games (both of his two total TDs and a nice chunk of his yards)? If he had a body of work that merited more consideration, I wouldn't totally discount that outstanding performance. But since he doesn't, it really isn't hard to call shenanigans based on the scenario.

Royal has been prematurely written off, and not much consideration is being given to Josh's new pet receiver he drafted over Dez Bryant. McDaniels came right out and said that he plans to use Thomas like he used Marshall, which with Royal in the slot may not leave a ton for Gaffney toward the middle/end of the season.

Let's not get ahead of ourselves here folks.

 
He was the WR4 in NE, certainly was never going to take time away from Moss and Welker so those stats are irrelevent and he wasn't gonna bump Brandon Marshall out of the way either but he's going to get a shot this year.
Gaffney signed in NE a year before that and had 11 receptions in 11 games with Reche Caldwell and Troy Brown (35 year old version) getting the starts. Gaffney's 1st year in the system was worse than Royal's year last season.
Hi Bacon,You nor I have any real idea what the situation is or was. It's hard to just grade out raw numbers without understanding the dynamics involved. If it's just about stats than just load up what happened last year because as I posted earlier this year...2010 will be the 1st year where guys duplicate their 2009 numbers, right? I don't profess a lot of faith in Gaffney's skills but he will start and Denver is going to be behind a good deal of the time so he's gonna be like Kenny Smith says in the NBA(read my sig) like a "looter in a riot"...he's gonna score with a lot of chaos around him.
 
You nor I have any real idea what the situation is or was. It's hard to just grade out raw numbers without understanding the dynamics involved. If it's just about stats than just load up what happened last year because as I posted earlier this year...2010 will be the 1st year where guys duplicate their 2009 numbers, right?
I agree to a point- but I can't call Gaffney's time in NE without Moss/Welker irrelevant, nor can I count his time in Houston battling for the #2 slot with receivers who washed out of the league in a few years irrelevant either.
I don't profess a lot of faith in Gaffney's skills but he will start and Denver is going to be behind a good deal of the time so he's gonna be like Kenny Smith says in the NBA(read my sig) like a "looter in a riot"...he's gonna score with a lot of chaos around him.
In 2 years the Broncos have lost a pro bowl QB and replaced him with (by most opinions) a below average QB, lost a multiple time pro bowl receiver and replaced him with a rookie who by all accounts is very raw, have lost a quality receiving TE and replaced him with nothing and have had their best offensive lineman seriously injured and he shouldn't be expected to be 100% for this season. When you look at the overall talent level of the Broncos they don't look like they are much better than than the Rams, Browns, Seahawks, Bills of the league. They have some talent and a lot of Question marks. In the NBA a guy can put up tons of counting stats by jacking up shots on a bad team, but in the NFL a lot of bad teams just don't put up jack ####. I'm concerned that the Broncos could be one of those offensive waste lands this year.In response to another point that someone brought up about Shaun Mcdonald in DET- Mike Furrey was the first guy that was brought in- and he had a career year and then they brought in Mcdonald and Furrey's stats dropped in half. Once someone else with experience and a small amount more talent was in the mix Furrey became an afterthought. If Royal picks up the offense better this year his obvious physical attributes will make him a much better option than Gaffney, if one of the rookies is ahead of the curve he would as well. Or it could be some journeyman WR- in 2006 Brady threw for 3500/24 and the leading receiver was Reche Caldwell in his first year with the team putting up 760 yards and 4 TDs- he had a few big weeks (9/90/1, 8/112/0, 4/134/1) but had less than 60 yards 11 times. This was on a team with a MUCH better QB and a better Oline and one that finished 7th in total points (not 20th like last year's Broncos).
 
You nor I have any real idea what the situation is or was. It's hard to just grade out raw numbers without understanding the dynamics involved. If it's just about stats than just load up what happened last year because as I posted earlier this year...2010 will be the 1st year where guys duplicate their 2009 numbers, right?
I agree to a point- but I can't call Gaffney's time in NE without Moss/Welker irrelevant, nor can I count his time in Houston battling for the #2 slot with receivers who washed out of the league in a few years irrelevant either.
I don't profess a lot of faith in Gaffney's skills but he will start and Denver is going to be behind a good deal of the time so he's gonna be like Kenny Smith says in the NBA(read my sig) like a "looter in a riot"...he's gonna score with a lot of chaos around him.
In 2 years the Broncos have lost a pro bowl QB and replaced him with (by most opinions) a below average QB, lost a multiple time pro bowl receiver and replaced him with a rookie who by all accounts is very raw, have lost a quality receiving TE and replaced him with nothing and have had their best offensive lineman seriously injured and he shouldn't be expected to be 100% for this season. When you look at the overall talent level of the Broncos they don't look like they are much better than than the Rams, Browns, Seahawks, Bills of the league. They have some talent and a lot of Question marks. In the NBA a guy can put up tons of counting stats by jacking up shots on a bad team, but in the NFL a lot of bad teams just don't put up jack ####. I'm concerned that the Broncos could be one of those offensive waste lands this year.In response to another point that someone brought up about Shaun Mcdonald in DET- Mike Furrey was the first guy that was brought in- and he had a career year and then they brought in Mcdonald and Furrey's stats dropped in half. Once someone else with experience and a small amount more talent was in the mix Furrey became an afterthought. If Royal picks up the offense better this year his obvious physical attributes will make him a much better option than Gaffney, if one of the rookies is ahead of the curve he would as well. Or it could be some journeyman WR- in 2006 Brady threw for 3500/24 and the leading receiver was Reche Caldwell in his first year with the team putting up 760 yards and 4 TDs- he had a few big weeks (9/90/1, 8/112/0, 4/134/1) but had less than 60 yards 11 times. This was on a team with a MUCH better QB and a better Oline and one that finished 7th in total points (not 20th like last year's Broncos).
I have to mostly agree with what you're posting here. But the only thing I have to add is that Mike Furrey still did have a season where he caught 98 passes. Just because it wasn't likely doesn't mean that it will never happen again and at Gaffney's ADP it would cost practically nothing to find out.
 
Kyle Orton will throw for at least 3,000 yards. Denver's running game and their run blocking along the interior of their line is putird. They do have some decent pass blocking OT and even the interior can pass block some as well. With time to throw Orton is going to find Gaffney enough to blow way past the nubmers the rest of you are projecting. I understand Gaffney has been a mediocre WR at best but McDaniels loves him and has brought him along to NE and now Denver. I harken back to a WR Martz brought in during his reign in Detroit as OC, what was his name? Ah yes, Shaun McDonald had a career best 79 receptions, 943 yds, and 6 TDs. He didn't do much before that season and he really hasn't done a lot since. So does McDonald have no talent or did it take a certain coach to bring that out of him? Maybe it was the system but Gaffney likes McDaniels system. He was the WR4 in NE, certainly was never going to take time away from Moss and Welker so those stats are irrelevent and he wasn't gonna bump Brandon Marshall out of the way either but he's going to get a shot this year. Fools will mock and laugh but try and breakdown the receiving numbers with Orton throwing for 3,000 yds. How much to the backs and TEs? Can't be a ton, maybe 800-1,000? Leave 2,000 for the WRs and I feel safe in Gaffney grabbing about 35-40% of that.I project him for 4 catches a game so 64/800/6Tds...nothing flashy but he's a solid WR3/4, bye week special, those numbers would put him int he top30 from last year IIRC. And I think he could creep a little higher if Denver ends up in some shootouts which they will with that defense.
[sidetrack]Good to get your take MoP, and thank you for posting about the RB production. I can see a premium of check down passes to RB akin to Orton using Forte two seasons ago. Without stud Marshall and a capable Sheffler, it's hard for me to forecast a conservative number of receptions for Buckhalter and Moreno. [/sidetrack]To get back on track, GO Gaffney for the first 3 to 4 games of the season until I unload you from my fantasy teams! Playing the Ravens, Jets and Asomugha in weeks 5 - 7 is no picnic.
 
I think the fact this Spotlight has gotten no replies speaks VOLUMES, and in a way I almost hesitated to bump it because I want Gaffney's upside to remain way off the radar. To my mind, Gaffney is one of a handful of must draft guys (assuming his ADP stays low) as so many people are looking at Eddie Royal and Demaryius Thomas ahead of him. I just don't understand that. Royal was the worst starting wide receiver in the NFL last year (subjectively to be sure, but no one will argue he was good),
You're using Eddie Royal's horrible year against him, but completely discounting his rookie year, in which he outperformed Gaffney's best season by a large margin. Gaffney could become fantasy relevant in his 9th season after being virtually useless in his first 8, but is that really surer thing than Eddie Royal bouncing back?
I'm not discounting it at all. But that came in a different system. Eddie struggled last year understanding the playbook, his assignments. He was lost. Could he rediscover his game? Sure. But that won't hurt Gaffney IMHO. The Broncos need a handful of viable targets to not completely implode offensively. Last time I checked they could use more than one WR in the starting lineup (I don't see Demaryius being a help much this year, at least until the second half).
 
Eric Decker.

Get to know him.

I would be surprised if he does NOT lead the ponies in receptions this year, a la McDonald/Furrey/Welker in a McDaniels offense.

Great hands, great blocking, smart, mediocre speed.

Royal's moving to the slot. DThomas needs time to become a beast. Gaffney and Stokley to beat?

I like his odds, and can be had for a gum wrapper.

 
Eric Decker. Get to know him.I would be surprised if he does NOT lead the ponies in receptions this year, a la McDonald/Furrey/Welker in a McDaniels offense.Great hands, great blocking, smart, mediocre speed.Royal's moving to the slot. DThomas needs time to become a beast. Gaffney and Stokley to beat? I like his odds, and can be had for a gum wrapper.
Making mental note . . .
 
I am not bullish on Gaffney. IMO he's only there to keep the seat warm for Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker. IMO he has the least upside of any of the Denver WR corps.

 
I am not bullish on Gaffney. IMO he's only there to keep the seat warm for Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker. IMO he has the least upside of any of the Denver WR corps.
I agree with this, and while Gaffney supporters will say that's fine and they'll take Gaffney spending a year keeping the seat warm and getting 65-75 catches as 2010 starter in the process, I don't think it'll go down that way. People usually set their full season rankings where they do based on week 1 expectations, but in Gaffney's case IMO that would be a mistake. I think that by the 1/3 point of the season the rookies' roles will increase and Gaffney's role will decrease. Ranking him around WR30 as I've seen in a few places might make sense for a week 1 ranking but as his role decreases his weekly ranking will go lower and lower, until it settles probably in the 60s or 70s where he belongs. He's not going to get 65-75 catches, more like 45-50 with half of that coming in the first third of the year, and production over the last 2/3 of the year that makes him mostly fantasy-useless over that time.
 
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I am not bullish on Gaffney. IMO he's only there to keep the seat warm for Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker. IMO he has the least upside of any of the Denver WR corps.
I agree with this, and while Gaffney supporters will say that's fine and they'll take Gaffney spending a year keeping the seat warm and getting 65-75 catches as 2010 starter in the process, I don't think it'll go down that way. People usually set their full season rankings where they do based on week 1 expectations, but in Gaffney's case IMO that would be a mistake. I think that by the 1/3 point of the season the rookies' roles will increase and Gaffney's role will decrease. Ranking him around WR30 as I've seen in a few places might make sense for a week 1 ranking but as his role decreases his weekly ranking will go lower and lower, until it settles probably in the 60s or 70s where he belongs. He's not going to get 65-75 catches, more like 45-50 with half of that coming in the first third of the year, and production over the last 2/3 of the year that makes him mostly fantasy-useless over that time.
agreed. if you draft him where you think he presents good value, sell early to capitalize on said value.
 
Looked good again tonight as does Orton who got a nice $9 million extension
He has definitely caught my attention. I'm not particularly confident in him, but it appears that he is their #1 going into the season. Considering what he did at the end of last season and how he looks right now (role and production), he might have more upside than I was giving him credit for.
 
I'm all over Gaffney when the price is right.....this is one of those times when you put all the stats aside (what he did in NE doesn't matter, etc)....if you watch the games and you pay attention to who the coach and QB trust you know that Gaffney is a guy to try and get late....I'm not buying the idea that 1/3 of the way into the season he will be sitting so that Thomas and Decker can play.....McD is going to try and win every game this year, even if late in the year and out of playoff contention, and Gaffney will be a part of those games......there are points to be had this year in the Denver passing game.....I see Orton being very serviceable, creeping up on starter territory and Gaffney as a solid WR2-3 play most of the year......

not good at stats/projections, but I could see 1,000 yards easily....easily.....and 8-10 TD's....

and fwiw....I hate the Broncos......

 
He went in the 12th round of my redraft league this past weekend. I was to scoop him up but after Moss, Austin, St Smith(NYG), TO, and Knox...I just didn't see where I would use him that much. And so I waited till almost the last round and found Bernard Berrian to round out my WR stable. I'll keep you guys posted :goodposting:

 
He went in the 12th round of my redraft league this past weekend. I was to scoop him up but after Moss, Austin, St Smith(NYG), TO, and Knox...I just didn't see where I would use him that much. And so I waited till almost the last round and found Bernard Berrian to round out my WR stable. I'll keep you guys posted ;)
:goodposting:
 
Great question re: Demaryius Thomas and, yes, I do think that unless you got Gaffney VERY late in drafts (he really rose up ADP toward the last week or two before the season), he probably isn't going to return much value at this point. Eddie Royal seems to have rediscovered what made him an impact rookie, and Thomas -- who many (myself included) saw as too raw to contribute immediately, certainly looked the part yesterday. In PPR, considering he's at the bottom of your roster in all but very deep leagues, no need to panic BUT you probably also have some compelling higher upside choices staring at you on the waiver wire.

 
Took a real late round flyer on him and picked him up in a free agent draft in anothor league and bid on him in another for a modest price.

Really no risk taken. I will sit on him. Injuries happen. And then he will have value again.

 
Sep. 26 - 7:40 pm et

Jabar Gaffney caught 12 passes for 140 yards in the Broncos' Week 3 loss to the Colts. Yes, you read that right. Gaffney was targeted a team high 14 times, and was clearly Kyle Orton's favorite receiver. Gaffney's longest reception on the day was only 26-yards. He'll be a hot waiver wire pickup for the upcoming week, especially in PPR leagues.

 

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