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T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR, Seattle Seahawks (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR, Seattle Seahawks

Player Page Link: T.J. Houshmandzadeh Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

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While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
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He SAYS he wants 100 catches this year - I think that is a bit much to project.

As it is, with a second year in the system, and with Burleson's 103 targets over 13 games (7.92 per game) gone, he should see an uptick from his own 135 targets last season.

I see maybe 145 targets, with a better catch percentage than last season's 58.5% (67.2% the season prior).

So I will go 145 targets, 90 catches (62%), 990 yards (11 YPC), 5 TD.

 
The big question for him is - will the TDs come? The team only had 20 total passing TDs and Carlson caught 7 of them. It's hard to see him having a great year unless Hasselbeck has a great year or Whitehurst steps in and does well. I don't see either of those things happening. He'll have another pedestrian year, maybe a slight notch above last year. 85 - 980 - 4

 
Miscast as a number one receiver, and I don't see him getting enough targets to counter that. Count me as somebody who does not see Charlie Whitehurst doing enough to make Housh more than a WR3 during his second season in Seattle.

81 receptions, 946 yards, 4 TD's

 
He SAYS he wants 100 catches this year - I think that is a bit much to project.

As it is, with a second year in the system, and with Burleson's 103 targets over 13 games (7.92 per game) gone, he should see an uptick from his own 135 targets last season.

I see maybe 145 targets, with a better catch percentage than last season's 58.5% (67.2% the season prior).

So I will go 145 targets, 90 catches (62%), 990 yards (11 YPC), 5 TD.
No Seahawks are in the second year of the system.
 
Miscast as a number one receiver, and I don't see him getting enough targets to counter that. Count me as somebody who does not see Charlie Whitehurst doing enough to make Housh more than a WR3 during his second season in Seattle.81 receptions, 946 yards, 4 TD's
I actually agree with your numbers... but am confused by the WR3 ceiling tag on them...
 
Some of the pieces to the puzzle are in Seattle for a good passing game but something is missing. Hasselbeck to Housh should be good for 1000 yards in a 16 game season but I'm just not feeling it. The offensive line doesn't do a great job of pass protecting for their QB, their running game is average to slightly less than average and all of this just makes it tough for the passing game.

68 receptions for 740 yards and 4 td's

 
I can see Derrick Mason numbers:

90 catches, 990 yards, 5 TDs

Undervalued in PPR, probably not much better than waiver wire fliers in non-ppr.

 
I said last year that Houshmandzadeh would be the most overrated free agent signing. I'm not sure he ended up being THE worst signing, but he had to be up there. It really wasn't a surprise that he would struggle in Seattle because he was being paid, and used, as a WR1 even though he had never earned the right to be considered a WR1 in his career. People looked at 2007 as some kind of incremental breakout, even though it came at age 30. Yet it was pretty obviously a career year and an outlier relative to the rest of his career. He's a talented, albeit past his prime, complementary weapon. But without the advantage of either an elite passer and/or an elite WR lining up on the other side of the field, Housh isn't going to put up huge numbers. With a new offensive system, a commitment to rebuilding, and major questions remaining at QB, RB and along the line, I can't in good conscience view Houshmandzadeh as someone likely to have any kind of major bounce back.

Proceed with caution.

 
So what kind of numbers are you seeing from him?

Last season he ended up with 79-911-3 on 135 targets. Do you see even lower than that?

In PPR, he was still even top-25 with those numbers. But I definitely do not think he was a top-25 REAL LIFE nfl receiver last season.

 
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So what kind of numbers are you seeing from him?

Last season he ended up with 79-911-3 on 135 targets. Do you see even lower than that?

In PPR, he was still even top-25 with those numbers. But I definitely do not think he was a top-25 REAL LIFE nfl receiver last season.
I currently have him at 60 for 690 and 3, and am the lowest of the four site projectors. Our average projection right now =67 receptions

752 yards

4 TDs

Edit: I have since upticked my projections a tad to 66/770/4

 
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Seattle ha a very disappointing year in 09, with a 5-11 record. Even worse, four of their wins were St. Louis twice, Detroit, and Jacksonville, who ciombined for a 10-38 record. Their defense gave up 390 points, 24.4 points per game, 26th overall.

On offense, their running game was poor. Their RBs only rushed for 1449 yards and 6 TDs. They have added Leon Washington to the mix, but he is coming off a broken leg and at this point is considered third team. Looks like Forsett and J. Jones will likely be carrying the load in 2010. I am not looking for a huge improvement, so the focus could continue to be on the passing game as the Seahawks trail often.

Matt Hasselbeck was not right in 09, but should be better if he is healthy enough to play. I would guess that Whitehurst would be a better back-up option than was there last year, if Hasselbeck is unable to improve healthwise.

Either way, T.J. Houshmandzadeh remains a solid player. His performance dropped from a career reception percentage of 65.5% down to 58.5% a year ago. He and the Seahawks should improve efficiency in 2010 with better QB play. They added a rookie WR in Golden Tate and if he stays away from late night snacks, he should add another solid target and John Carlson is entering his third year and has been very reliable. I look for passing to improve.

TJ may not spell Championship as he did on the fantasy commercials of a few years back, but he will outperform his current ADP, particularly in ppr leagues, where he is going as the WR 31.

TJ Housh 16 gms 138 targets (8.6 per game) 88 catches 64% 1012 yards 11.5 ypc and 6 TDs

 
Seattle ha a very disappointing year in 09, with a 5-11 record. Even worse, four of their wins were St. Louis twice, Detroit, and Jacksonville, who ciombined for a 10-38 record. Their defense gave up 390 points, 24.4 points per game, 26th overall.On offense, their running game was poor. Their RBs only rushed for 1449 yards and 6 TDs. They have added Leon Washington to the mix, but he is coming off a broken leg and at this point is considered third team. Looks like Forsett and J. Jones will likely be carrying the load in 2010. I am not looking for a huge improvement, so the focus could continue to be on the passing game as the Seahawks trail often.Matt Hasselbeck was not right in 09, but should be better if he is healthy enough to play. I would guess that Whitehurst would be a better back-up option than was there last year, if Hasselbeck is unable to improve healthwise.Either way, T.J. Houshmandzadeh remains a solid player. His performance dropped from a career reception percentage of 65.5% down to 58.5% a year ago. He and the Seahawks should improve efficiency in 2010 with better QB play. They added a rookie WR in Golden Tate and if he stays away from late night snacks, he should add another solid target and John Carlson is entering his third year and has been very reliable. I look for passing to improve.TJ may not spell Championship as he did on the fantasy commercials of a few years back, but he will outperform his current ADP, particularly in ppr leagues, where he is going as the WR 31.TJ Housh 16 gms 138 targets (8.6 per game) 88 catches 64% 1012 yards 11.5 ypc and 6 TDs
Very well though-out post (i.e. FBGs, this is the one you grab for the .pdf). I believe he is due for a hiccup year before he "see the light" at the end of the tunnel of a really great career for a 7th rounder. Sure, he is no WR1, but that never stopped Mason from being that guy you grab at the late-middle rounds and end up starting week after week as your WR#3. If I could walk away from a draft with Housh as my WR3, I would be pleased as punch. Another year to adjust to the team (if not system) and as many changes Carroll has made in the running game, he has not touched the WRs. Carroll also was not putting guys in the NFL with mediocre stats; he used his WRs, almost to a fault for the NFL teams drafting those guys (i.e. pinball numbers were misleading). We all know Housh has the talent, now he has an opportunity:I see...84 reception 950 yards and 6 TDs...great numbers in a PPR for your high-end WR3.
 
Personally I think he and Hasselbeck have looked great this pre-season, and I would be shocked if they dont both far exceed their adp in any format. This last preseason game they didnt have a lot of time on the field as the time of possession was heavily slanted against them. Very nice schedule as well.

 
I haven't been following his situation, but read this morning he could get traded. Any thoughts on where he could land?

 
Housh is a bum! Well, not really - but he is slow and whoever takes him will be disappointed with his production. Believe me, I'm talking from experience here! Last year I had Desean Jackson on my draft board and instead of taking him I took Housh, because "Oh lucky me", he fell to me and Housh had a gret pre-season with Hass. I went through the rest of the year frustrated as hell as he put up mediocre stats week after week! I'm not touching him at all this year - PERIOD!

 
The rumors/speculation that I have seen regarding Housh is that he will be traded or cut to make room for VJackson if a trade can be had. I believe if he is cut, the Washington Redskins would be very, very interested. For the poster that commented on Housh last year, keep in mind that he played the first month and a half of the season with broken (3) ribs. The Seattle offensive situation seems to be a mess right now, I'm having a hard time sorting out what fantasy value anyone on that team will have this year. The Oline is in shambles, the running game looks "Eh" at best, it's RBBC, Mike Williams keeps getting hype after failing miserably elsewhere...as I said, I'm a bit lost with Seattle this year.

 
Housh is a bum! Well, not really - but he is slow and whoever takes him will be disappointed with his production. Believe me, I'm talking from experience here! Last year I had Desean Jackson on my draft board and instead of taking him I took Housh, because "Oh lucky me", he fell to me and Housh had a gret pre-season with Hass. I went through the rest of the year frustrated as hell as he put up mediocre stats week after week! I'm not touching him at all this year - PERIOD!
Excellent analysis here. Your own fault for passing on a playmaker on a good team for an overachiever (due to CJ getting the better coverage) on a bad team.I was never a fan of the signing simply because of the money and the fact he seems like a little witch (substitute letters freely here) on the sidelines. I didn't like his attitude (which was also overshadowed by 85) in Cincy and certainly wasn't happy to see it here in Seattle, but was willing to put up with it for production, which never came. Granted the QBs never had time to get the passing game going, and Wallace took a major step backwards even when he did. TJ's comments after the trade rumors took steam last night reflect what I thought about him before hand; he feels unwanted now and that won't help his chemistry with the team. He's not completely baseless, obviously, in feeling that way, but everything about him I've observed shows me that he'll keep that chip on his shoulder and turn it into a boulder. I doubt he plays for the Hawks this year even if they can't find a trade partner. Eric Williams at the Seahawks blog feels the same way: "With Houshmandzadeh now being shopped around the league, I think the damage is done and I would be surprised if he returns, even with the guaranteed $7 million he will make this season."

Carroll and Shneider have shown that they are willing to get rid of personal and fan favorites and/or bring in anyone they can to make the team better. They seem to care little about money when they make these decisions, as does moneybags owner Paul Allen (he basically paid Mora Jr $12 mil iirc for this season to not coach, money well spent imo). BMW has truly looked outstanding and the WR corp will be no better or worse if TJ goes. If he stays, he simply takes snaps away from Butler and Tate. So, my best guess is he's gone no matter what. Vikings are my best guess if he can egotistically handle a pay cut.

Now, if we could only get rid of Branch. The season may suck with the growing pains of BMW, Tate and Butler, but like Obama's administration, you can't just wave a magic wand and fix everything at once. Losing Housh is a good move towards that future.

 
FWIW, John Clayton was on my local Seattle sports station yesterday. His opinion was that Housh's salary figure made it awfully hard to swallow that the Hawks would straight up cut the guy considering the amount of guaranteed money on the table there. His opinion was that trading Housh would require that the Hawks eat almost the entirety of his salary, as well, which made the idea of trading him equally as far-fetched as his straight up release.

 
FWIW, John Clayton was on my local Seattle sports station yesterday. His opinion was that Housh's salary figure made it awfully hard to swallow that the Hawks would straight up cut the guy considering the amount of guaranteed money on the table there. His opinion was that trading Housh would require that the Hawks eat almost the entirety of his salary, as well, which made the idea of trading him equally as far-fetched as his straight up release.
If they do want to get rid of him, this is the year to do it since it's an uncapped year. If they get rid of him, it'll only count against this year's non-existent cap. Glad to see the homers throwing in their :confused: .Not to hijack, but ? for Mad Sweeney (or other Hawks homers): What kind of #s do u think BMW puts up on a weekly basis? 2-4 rec for under 50 yds or 4-6 rec for 70 and a .5 TDs? Just throwing #s out there, what do u think?
 
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FWIW, John Clayton was on my local Seattle sports station yesterday. His opinion was that Housh's salary figure made it awfully hard to swallow that the Hawks would straight up cut the guy considering the amount of guaranteed money on the table there. His opinion was that trading Housh would require that the Hawks eat almost the entirety of his salary, as well, which made the idea of trading him equally as far-fetched as his straight up release.
If they do want to get rid of him, this is the year to do it since it's an uncapped year. If they get rid of him, it'll only count against this year's non-existent cap. Glad to see the homers throwing in their :thumbup: .Not to hijack, but ? for Mad Sweeney (or other Hawks homers): What kind of #s do u think BMW puts up on a weekly basis? 2-4 rec for under 50 yds or 4-6 rec for 70 and a .5 TDs? Just throwing #s out there, what do u think?
As a Seahawk homer, I think he'll be closer to the latter.. If Housh go's I think BMW will end up our #1 as Branch will get hurt (again).. They way BMW has played, I think 60-70 rec & 1000 yds is within reach.. Although, I'm inclined to think he's have huge games and clunkers vs steady output to end up with the 1000+.
 

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