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Andre Johnson, WR, Houston Texans (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Andre Johnson, WR, Houston Texans

Player Page Link: Andre Johnson Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or :thumbup: ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
100 receptions for 1450 yards and 9 touchdowns.

Somehow, I'm guessing this spotlight thread doesn't have a whole lot of debate. Funny how 216 catches for 3100 yards and 17 touchdowns over the last two seasons can do that.

 
Never been able to put up the big TD numbers except for his injury shortened 2007 season. People think he just can't get it done in the red zone, but that's simply not true. He gets a LOT of attention down there and the coaching staff has been more than willing to work with this and take what the defense gives them and just throw to a wide open Kevin Walter or Owen Daniels. If OD's emergence forces defenses to get more honest then we could easily see 12+ TD, but for now let's just expect another season approaching 1600 yards.
In 2008 Andre Johnson's 28 redzone targets were #2 in the league, in 2009 his 25 redzone targets were #2 in the league.
 
Never been able to put up the big TD numbers except for his injury shortened 2007 season. People think he just can't get it done in the red zone, but that's simply not true. He gets a LOT of attention down there and the coaching staff has been more than willing to work with this and take what the defense gives them and just throw to a wide open Kevin Walter or Owen Daniels. If OD's emergence forces defenses to get more honest then we could easily see 12+ TD, but for now let's just expect another season approaching 1600 yards.
In 2008 Andre Johnson's 28 redzone targets were #2 in the league, in 2009 his 25 redzone targets were #2 in the league.
Lots of targets doesn't take away from lots of attention. On those targets, I'd be willing to bet he's getting a lot of said attention. More than anyone other than a select few: Fitz, Moss off the top of my head. Hard to catch balls in short areas with bracket/double coverage.
 
Never been able to put up the big TD numbers except for his injury shortened 2007 season. People think he just can't get it done in the red zone, but that's simply not true. He gets a LOT of attention down there and the coaching staff has been more than willing to work with this and take what the defense gives them and just throw to a wide open Kevin Walter or Owen Daniels. If OD's emergence forces defenses to get more honest then we could easily see 12+ TD, but for now let's just expect another season approaching 1600 yards.
In 2008 Andre Johnson's 28 redzone targets were #2 in the league, in 2009 his 25 redzone targets were #2 in the league.
Lots of targets doesn't take away from lots of attention. On those targets, I'd be willing to bet he's getting a lot of said attention. More than anyone other than a select few: Fitz, Moss off the top of my head. Hard to catch balls in short areas with bracket/double coverage.
Your quote said the coaches have been "willing to work with this and take what the defense gives them and just throw to a wide open Kevin Walter or Owen Daniels"- Kevin Walter has 7 TDs in 37 RZ targets the past 2 seasons, Owen Daniels 6 in 20 for a combined 13 in 57 while AJ has 13 in 53. I really don't think there is any reason to assume defenses will start altering their coverage given that AJ is still equaling/beating the 2nd and 3rd options.
 
Never been able to put up the big TD numbers except for his injury shortened 2007 season. People think he just can't get it done in the red zone, but that's simply not true. He gets a LOT of attention down there and the coaching staff has been more than willing to work with this and take what the defense gives them and just throw to a wide open Kevin Walter or Owen Daniels. If OD's emergence forces defenses to get more honest then we could easily see 12+ TD, but for now let's just expect another season approaching 1600 yards.
In 2008 Andre Johnson's 28 redzone targets were #2 in the league, in 2009 his 25 redzone targets were #2 in the league.
Lots of targets doesn't take away from lots of attention. On those targets, I'd be willing to bet he's getting a lot of said attention. More than anyone other than a select few: Fitz, Moss off the top of my head. Hard to catch balls in short areas with bracket/double coverage.
Your quote said the coaches have been "willing to work with this and take what the defense gives them and just throw to a wide open Kevin Walter or Owen Daniels"- Kevin Walter has 7 TDs in 37 RZ targets the past 2 seasons, Owen Daniels 6 in 20 for a combined 13 in 57 while AJ has 13 in 53. I really don't think there is any reason to assume defenses will start altering their coverage given that AJ is still equaling/beating the 2nd and 3rd options.
Red zone targets are a bit of a silly stat, since an out on the 14 yard line qualifies as a "red zone target". AJ has 33 receptions in the redzone the last two years and 13 TDs, so that means there's 20 receptions (not even just targets) that weren't really what we should be talking about here.Inside the 10 yard line, AJ has 15 targets, Walter 14 targets, and Daniels 12 targets.Inside the 5 yard line, all three of them have 6 targets each.Also keep in mind that both Daniels and Walter played in fewer games.It's pretty significant that they're basically equal in targets in the endzone (with AJ actually having fewer than the other two on a per game basis) when AJ gets so many more targets everywhere else on the field (341 for AJ, 165 for Walter, 158 for Daniels), which does leave some credence to MrTwo's point..
 
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Your quote said the coaches have been "willing to work with this and take what the defense gives them and just throw to a wide open Kevin Walter or Owen Daniels"
It wasn't my quote, and I agree that MrTwo's words imply something that's not true: the Texans stray away from AJ and look for the other guys. I don't think they do that too much -- and I don't blame them; you've got to get your best player the ball as much as possible -- but I do think the RZ targets he does get are "worse" RZ targets than that of most other WRs.
 
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Unquestionably the No. 1 WR in PPR leagues and the WR that has the least amount of question marks heading into this season making him the safest selection at WR in the league. The only downfall this guy has is he's remarkably never caught double digit Td's in a season.

108 receptions, 1550 yards and 9 td's

 
Andre Johnson is the perfect ppr WR. He is an extraordinary athlete with speed, hops, and great hands. He has a very good QB who has developed a great connection with AJ. He has two straight seasons with over 100 receptions and he remains the obvious #1 target for Matt Schaub. The Texans have not been successful running the ball recently. Theeir RBs averaged only 3.7 ypc in 09 with 365 carries.

The team in 09 had 592 passes and only rushes, so the passing game is the focus of the attack. The only issue with having Andre Johnson on your team is that you MUST have a top half of the first round pick and be willing to spend it on a WR. Some folks just can't pull the trigger on Andre Johnson or any WR in the top half of the first round. Absolute best situation is having the 8th or 9th pick in a ppr league where the owners all love drafting RBs in the first or being an AJ owner is a dynasty league.

Andre Johnson 16 gms 168 targets 104 catches 61.9% 1560 yds 15.0 ypc and 10 TDs

 
Is this the year his TD numbers catch up with the rest of his stats? I think so.

106 rec. 1490 yards, 14 TD's

 
Damn, after tonights game I think it is conceivable that you could argue that Andre Johnson is worthy of a top 3 pick. I mean there is absolutely no stronger lock on a player producing points than AJ. In reality you could say CJohnson is due for a let down year after 2000 yds. (the history numbers dont lie about this stat). Without Farve you could argue ADP will suffer a drop in stats. MJD is going to be on a horrible team. Ray Rice is part of a good offense that has a ton of weapons so I think his catches will go down but rushes stay the same.

I am just saying after tonights game that AJ is going to have a solid year.

I would rank total players.

1. Rice

2. Andre Johnson

3. Chris johnson

4. Jones Drew

5. ADP

 
Damn, after tonights game I think it is conceivable that you could argue that Andre Johnson is worthy of a top 3 pick. I mean there is absolutely no stronger lock on a player producing points than AJ. In reality you could say CJohnson is due for a let down year after 2000 yds. (the history numbers dont lie about this stat). Without Farve you could argue ADP will suffer a drop in stats. MJD is going to be on a horrible team. Ray Rice is part of a good offense that has a ton of weapons so I think his catches will go down but rushes stay the same.

I am just saying after tonights game that AJ is going to have a solid year.

I would rank total players.

1. Rice

2. Andre Johnson

3. Chris johnson

4. Jones Drew

5. ADP
Eh. Don't know that tonight's game changes anything really. He had a second rate corner on him in single coverage. Regardless of tonights game, he's in for a solid year.
 
Damn, after tonights game I think it is conceivable that you could argue that Andre Johnson is worthy of a top 3 pick. I mean there is absolutely no stronger lock on a player producing points than AJ. In reality you could say CJohnson is due for a let down year after 2000 yds. (the history numbers dont lie about this stat). Without Farve you could argue ADP will suffer a drop in stats. MJD is going to be on a horrible team. Ray Rice is part of a good offense that has a ton of weapons so I think his catches will go down but rushes stay the same.

I am just saying after tonights game that AJ is going to have a solid year.

I would rank total players.

1. Rice

2. Andre Johnson

3. Chris johnson

4. Jones Drew

5. ADP
Eh. Don't know that tonight's game changes anything really. He had a second rate corner on him in single coverage. Regardless of tonights game, he's in for a solid year.
I am just saying that he is a stone cold lock to get his numbers and he and schuab obviously have each others numbers. Its not out of the realm of fantasy logic to take him 1, 2 or 3 (in ppr). He is as much of a lock as the top 3 running backs.
 
Damn, after tonights game I think it is conceivable that you could argue that Andre Johnson is worthy of a top 3 pick. I mean there is absolutely no stronger lock on a player producing points than AJ. In reality you could say CJohnson is due for a let down year after 2000 yds. (the history numbers dont lie about this stat). Without Farve you could argue ADP will suffer a drop in stats. MJD is going to be on a horrible team. Ray Rice is part of a good offense that has a ton of weapons so I think his catches will go down but rushes stay the same.

I am just saying after tonights game that AJ is going to have a solid year.

I would rank total players.

1. Rice

2. Andre Johnson

3. Chris johnson

4. Jones Drew

5. ADP
Eh. Don't know that tonight's game changes anything really. He had a second rate corner on him in single coverage. Regardless of tonights game, he's in for a solid year.
I am just saying that he is a stone cold lock to get his numbers and he and schuab obviously have each others numbers. Its not out of the realm of fantasy logic to take him 1, 2 or 3 (in ppr). He is as much of a lock as the top 3 running backs.
What's that test called when the Doc hits your knee with the reflex hammer?

 
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Damn, after tonights game I think it is conceivable that you could argue that Andre Johnson is worthy of a top 3 pick. I mean there is absolutely no stronger lock on a player producing points than AJ. In reality you could say CJohnson is due for a let down year after 2000 yds. (the history numbers dont lie about this stat). Without Farve you could argue ADP will suffer a drop in stats. MJD is going to be on a horrible team. Ray Rice is part of a good offense that has a ton of weapons so I think his catches will go down but rushes stay the same.

I am just saying after tonights game that AJ is going to have a solid year.

I would rank total players.

1. Rice

2. Andre Johnson

3. Chris johnson

4. Jones Drew

5. ADP
Eh. Don't know that tonight's game changes anything really. He had a second rate corner on him in single coverage. Regardless of tonights game, he's in for a solid year.
I am just saying that he is a stone cold lock to get his numbers and he and schuab obviously have each others numbers. Its not out of the realm of fantasy logic to take him 1, 2 or 3 (in ppr). He is as much of a lock as the top 3 running backs.
What's that test called when the Doc hits your knee with the reflex hammer?
Hammertime? :unsure:
 
Damn, after tonights game I think it is conceivable that you could argue that Andre Johnson is worthy of a top 3 pick. I mean there is absolutely no stronger lock on a player producing points than AJ. In reality you could say CJohnson is due for a let down year after 2000 yds. (the history numbers dont lie about this stat). Without Farve you could argue ADP will suffer a drop in stats. MJD is going to be on a horrible team. Ray Rice is part of a good offense that has a ton of weapons so I think his catches will go down but rushes stay the same.

I am just saying after tonights game that AJ is going to have a solid year.

I would rank total players.

1. Rice

2. Andre Johnson

3. Chris johnson

4. Jones Drew

5. ADP
Eh. Don't know that tonight's game changes anything really. He had a second rate corner on him in single coverage. Regardless of tonights game, he's in for a solid year.
I am just saying that he is a stone cold lock to get his numbers and he and schuab obviously have each others numbers. Its not out of the realm of fantasy logic to take him 1, 2 or 3 (in ppr). He is as much of a lock as the top 3 running backs.
With Schaub being so fragile I couldn't touch AJ in the Top 3, but I agree he will be BEAST this season.
 
Damn, after tonights game I think it is conceivable that you could argue that Andre Johnson is worthy of a top 3 pick. I mean there is absolutely no stronger lock on a player producing points than AJ. In reality you could say CJohnson is due for a let down year after 2000 yds. (the history numbers dont lie about this stat). Without Farve you could argue ADP will suffer a drop in stats. MJD is going to be on a horrible team. Ray Rice is part of a good offense that has a ton of weapons so I think his catches will go down but rushes stay the same.

I am just saying after tonights game that AJ is going to have a solid year.

I would rank total players.

1. Rice

2. Andre Johnson

3. Chris johnson

4. Jones Drew

5. ADP
Eh. Don't know that tonight's game changes anything really. He had a second rate corner on him in single coverage. Regardless of tonights game, he's in for a solid year.
I am just saying that he is a stone cold lock to get his numbers and he and schuab obviously have each others numbers. Its not out of the realm of fantasy logic to take him 1, 2 or 3 (in ppr). He is as much of a lock as the top 3 running backs.
What's that test called when the Doc hits your knee with the reflex hammer?
Hammertime? :shrug:
Knee Jerk reflex.

 
Damn, after tonights game I think it is conceivable that you could argue that Andre Johnson is worthy of a top 3 pick. I mean there is absolutely no stronger lock on a player producing points than AJ. In reality you could say CJohnson is due for a let down year after 2000 yds. (the history numbers dont lie about this stat). Without Farve you could argue ADP will suffer a drop in stats. MJD is going to be on a horrible team. Ray Rice is part of a good offense that has a ton of weapons so I think his catches will go down but rushes stay the same.I am just saying after tonights game that AJ is going to have a solid year.I would rank total players.1. Rice2. Andre Johnson3. Chris johnson4. Jones Drew5. ADP
AJ is a beast and clear #1 WR on board but putting him into the top 3 based on a preseason game is crazy. If you had him in your top 3 before the game so be it; to put him into your top 3 based on a preseason game is ridiculous though. ITS PRESEASON.All that said, I got CJ, ADP, MJD, RICE as my top 4 with AJ rolling in at #5.
 
Damn, after tonights game I think it is conceivable that you could argue that Andre Johnson is worthy of a top 3 pick. I mean there is absolutely no stronger lock on a player producing points than AJ. In reality you could say CJohnson is due for a let down year after 2000 yds. (the history numbers dont lie about this stat). Without Farve you could argue ADP will suffer a drop in stats. MJD is going to be on a horrible team. Ray Rice is part of a good offense that has a ton of weapons so I think his catches will go down but rushes stay the same.I am just saying after tonights game that AJ is going to have a solid year.I would rank total players.1. Rice2. Andre Johnson3. Chris johnson4. Jones Drew5. ADP
AJ is a beast and clear #1 WR on board but putting him into the top 3 based on a preseason game is crazy. If you had him in your top 3 before the game so be it; to put him into your top 3 based on a preseason game is ridiculous though. ITS PRESEASON.All that said, I got CJ, ADP, MJD, RICE as my top 4 with AJ rolling in at #5.I am just saying that you could make a negative case for each of the 4 running backs listed. You have a hard time making a bad case against AJ as a top pick.
no no no not at all. I am just saying it appears that Schuab and AJ are picking up where they left off. Not really moving up in my rankings due to the sick TD tonight just basically justifying it actually. No knee jerk reaction. AJ is as solid as a lock to get his numbers probably more so then anyone else except Cjohnson. You know CJ is going to get his just how much of a drop from the 2000 yards is it going to be.
 
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I would rank total players.1. Rice2. Andre Johnson3. Chris johnson4. Jones Drew5. ADP
Assuming you're drafting in the two slot, and using 0.5 PPR scoring, AJ scored 2.5 more points a game than the WR9 you can draft in the second round (Roddy White). On the other hand, CJ scored 9.2 more points a game than the RB12 you'd take in the 2nd (Grant) who ADP outscored by 5.5 points per game. As another league owner, I would love for you to use your 2 pick on AJ.
That hurts my head.Last year neither AJ or CJ were ranked #1 at their position. Both could be had at the end of the 1rst or possibly later depending on leagues. Out of the top 3 last year in RB's Forte screwed the pooch but I dont recall a top 3 WR being a bust. My point is that there is a greater risk for a stud running back to fail then a stud WR. And AJ has the makings of a statistical tsunami this year.
 
Last year neither AJ or CJ were ranked #1 at their position. Both could be had at the end of the 1rst or possibly later depending on leagues. Out of the top 3 last year in RB's Forte screwed the pooch but I dont recall a top 3 WR being a bust. My point is that there is a greater risk for a stud running back to fail then a stud WR. And AJ has the makings of a statistical tsunami this year.
You're right. Fitzgerald was ranked # 1 and drafted in the mid-first round. Everything you're saying about AJ was said about Fitz. It's foolish to draft a WR that high (the numbers don't support it), but I'm all for you and other owners doing it.
How did your first round rb do this week?
 
belljr said:
Anybody heard anything about the MRI results? Thanks.An MRI showed Monday morning that Andre Johnson has only a "mild right ankle sprain," and he is considered day to day.

Coach Gary Kubiak indicated that Johnson was feeling much better Monday than he did Sunday night. The Texans figure to scale back A.J.'s practice reps to make sure he's 100 percent against Dallas. Look for Johnson to start.

Source: Steph Stradley on Twitter
 
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