Heath Miller, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers (1 Viewer)

2010 Player Spotlight Series

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Thread Topic: Heath Miller, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers

Player Page Link: Heath Miller Player Page

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Miller posted a career year last year, but I don't know how much it had to do with his development as much as it did the development of the Steelers passing attack.

While Roethlisberger has always been an efficient QB, he'd up until 2009 never been prolific. But as the Steeler rushing attack struggled to transition it's identity to Rashard Mendenhall and it's defense struggled to keep opponent point totals down (324 PA - most since 2003), the Steelers relied on the passing attack much more heavily than in previous seasons (their 536 pass attempts also represented their most since 2003).

That said, the Steelers aren't necessarily forced to throw. Big Ben has developed in to a top tier QB production wise and can execute pretty much any type of game plan required of him. And while their pass attempts were their highest since 2003, they've averaged 502 over the last 4 seasons.

How this relates to Miller is as follows:

Santonio Holmes and his 138 targets are history. While Mike Wallace will now be counted on to fill that void, he won't be able to completely (when you consider he had 72 targets of his own) and while Emmanuel Sanders impressed in pre-draft camps, he's still a 3rd round selection so whatever he contributes is completely up in the air. Antwan Randle-El was brought back, but he's also been sketchy in recent years.

While Miller's reception % led all TE's (with at least 50 targets) in 2009 - 77.6% while increasing his targets from 65 to 98. He was 3rd in this category in 2008 and was 1st in 2007. So Miller's reliability did not wane as the Steelers relied on him for more production. Also, once the Steelers get in the red zone, there is noone they look to more than Heath Miller.

I can see Miller's targets increasing into the 110-115 range and even if his reception percentage dips, I wouldn't think it would drop off to such a pronounced degree. Right now, he represents extraordinary value as he's going in Round 12-14 for the most part.

Prediction: 82 Receptions 893 Receiving Yards 7 TD's.

Heath Miller has always been a good pass catching QB, the Steelers just didn't pass the ball as much as they did last year. With Ben R out for the first 4 games, I think Miller's numbers will be down the first 1/4 of the season. I also think that the Steelers don't want to pass the ball as much as they did last year, so I think they'll be slightly down from that point on because they will try and run the ball. Still, Heath Miller is a productive tight end and his season ending totals will be respectable.

61 receptions for 630 yards and 5 td's

Iwannabeacowboybaby! said:

Heath Miller has always been a good pass catching QB, the Steelers just didn't pass the ball as much as they did last year. With Ben R out for the first 4 games, I think Miller's numbers will be down the first 1/4 of the season. I also think that the Steelers don't want to pass the ball as much as they did last year, so I think they'll be slightly down from that point on because they will try and run the ball. Still, Heath Miller is a productive tight end and his season ending totals will be respectable.61 receptions for 630 yards and 5 td's

Click to expand...

I think with Ben out that Miller will probably suffer the least in reductions in his numbers except for maybe TD production in that first four games and perhaps his targets may even increase as he plays a big role in short over the middle possession types of catches which lesser QB's will use as a dump option. Also with Holmes being gone I think that they will make Miller even a bigger part of the passing game plan so even if the Steelers pass less and run more again I think he stays at least steady in previous years production.Miller is not a tight end that has a lot of big break out games but is a steady every week option that you can depend on for usually mid level decent numbers. If you do not target one of the elite Tight ends in your draft Miller is a good safe pick that is usually still available in the later rounds of the draft.

Heath Miller is looking like a fantasy bargain for 2010. Consider that he finished as TE #7 in 07, #15 in 08 (but he missed two games), and #9 in 09. His targets and receptions both spiked last year and he has a career 74% reception rate.

OK, now let's look ahead to 2010. Santionio Holmes and his team leading 138 targets are gone. Hines Ward is still with the Steelers, but he turned 34 in March and has to slow down at some point. Shouldn't his body be breaking down just based on all his bone crushing blocks? Most will downgrade expectations for the Steelers passing productiion with Roethlisberger's suspension, but shouldn't the loss of the big arm Big Ben and Holmes contribute to more TE targets?

Heat Miller's current ADP is TE #14 and 138 overall and he has finished at TE7 and TE9 in two of the last three years. I believe that he will be as productive as he was in 09 and possibly even more productive.

Heath Miller 16 gms 110 targets 77 catches (70%) 816 yds 10.6ypc and 8 TDs

rzrback77 said:

OK, now let's look ahead to 2010. Santionio Holmes and his team leading 138 targets are gone. Hines Ward is still with the Steelers, but he turned 34 in March and has to slow down at some point. Shouldn't his body be breaking down just based on all his bone crushing blocks? Most will downgrade expectations for the Steelers passing productiion with Roethlisberger's suspension, but shouldn't the loss of the big arm Big Ben and Holmes contribute to more TE targets?

Click to expand...

Interesting. You are a glass half full guy. That's fine. But I look at the above statement, and I see: A team that lost a huge talent in Holmes, a Hines Ward that is getting long in the tooth. Who is going to run the clear out routes that open space over the middle for Miller?I see an old immobile QB that will rely on the ground game for the first 4 games, then a game-rusty incumbent QB coming in to salvage the season. Miler's MO is to have a great game every 4th game, and some duds in between. Starting him consistently isn't for the faint of heart.I'll guess 56/620/4

Heath put up a 40% increase over his 2nd best season in total yards (and a 35% increase in yards/game) and had the largest # of targets inside of the 10 yard line that any Steeler has had since Roeth became QB and he still finished as TE #9. The expansion of the passing game and the development of more and more reception first TEs means that the numbers he put up- while they would have been good for a top 5 TE many years looking backwards they are unlikely to be top 5 going forward. Barely cracking the top 10 in a career year indicates a probable hard ceiling for me for a TE.

His high # of scoring opportunities will give him a nice floor but it is hard to see a guy like Miller who is already leading his team getting a substantial increase (a Hines Ward injury could do it- but that would probably hurt their offense so much that it could even out those extra opps pretty quickly) inside of the redzone and Miller just isn't good enough athletically to punch it in from deep (17/27 TDs have come on targets from inside the 10, 25/27 from inside the 20) nor is he likely to increase the rate at which he converts targets into TDs (for his career his has 25 TDs on on 66 redzone targets at a pretty even distribution).

Millers upside to me looks like statistical variation on last year. Maybe one year he gets a few extra targets and hits 850 yards or catches a couple more RZ targets and gets 8-9 TDs but last year I think is a pretty good representation of what his role in the offense looks like going forward but with this year being a slight downgrade to all offensive weapons due to the 4-6 game loss of Roeth.

70/720/5.

54 620 5 TDs

I think he regresses back to the mean this season. Ben gone for a few games, maybe more focus on the run. Good #2 TE.

Miller will be tough to project. A lot of question marks in PIT, especially in the first 4 games with no Big Ben

How will PIT deal with the loss of Santonio? Can Wallace step up and be that consistent deep threat?

How much is Ward on the decline?

I fully expect PIT to run the ball A LOT in the first 4 games. Will it continue once Ben returns? Can Mendenhall handle a 320+ carry load?

How many games will it take for Ben to shake off the rust?

Miller benefited a lot from PIT having so many weapons at WR. Losing one could draw more coverage to Miller. I expect Miller to be decent, but have a decrease in production from last year.

63 rec, 700 yds, 5 TD

At his ADP of TE14, I think he represents great value in that Miller could produce much better numbers than what I am projecting, if everything goes right in PIT. If you don't grab him in the draft, look to trade for him a few weeks in if he gets off to a slow start (which I expect will happen)

Offensive Coordinator Bruce Arians plans to get Miller more involved as a downfield reciever in 2010, the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reports:

Spin: "We have been working him split-out and motioning him and getting him involved, because he really is a third wide receiver," Arians stated. This obviously bodes well for Miller, who is coming off career-highs in receptions (76) and yards (789). With Santonio Holmes now in New Jersey and a bit of uncertainty as to whether second-year man Mike Wallace can fill those shoes, it looks like Miller will again be a frequent target this season. "He's No. 2 in my mind as far as, 'Hey, I've got to get this guy the ball,'" Arians added.

Miller looks like a great TE to target late at a very deep position.