Vernon Davis, TE, San Francisco 49ers (1 Viewer)

2010 Player Spotlight Series

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Thread Topic: Vernon Davis, TE, San Francisco 49ers

Player Page Link: Vernon Davis Player Page

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[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

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[*]Consensus Member Projections

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Vernon Davis had insane touchdown production last season. In addition to tying Antonio Gates' record for touchdowns in a season by a tight end, he also caught a bunch of long touchdowns. All told, his 13 touchdowns covered 252 yards last season, and he had six touchdowns of 20 yards or more. Those numbers are huge outliers for modern times, although such performances were more common in the '60s:

Year TD Dist Avg 20+ 30+ 40+ 50+ Team Player1966 9 484 53.8 7 6 6 6 BAL John Mackey1969 9 438 48.7 7 6 6 5 CIN Bob Trumpy1961 12 400 33.3 8 7 4 1 CHI Mike Ditka1972 10 351 35.1 7 4 3 2 NYJ Rich Caster1967 9 343 38.1 6 4 4 4 STL Jackie Smith1961 9 306 34.0 4 4 3 3 HOU Billy Cannon1963 7 306 43.7 7 6 4 3 BAL John Mackey1965 7 272 38.9 6 6 2 2 BAL John Mackey1967 9 253 28.1 7 6 1 0 NYG Aaron Thomas2009 13 252 19.4 6 2 1 1 SFO Vernon Davis1972 8 247 30.9 5 2 2 2 OAK Raymond Chester1974 7 238 34.0 4 4 2 1 NYJ Rich Caster1967 10 234 23.4 5 3 3 1 OAK Billy Cannon1989 9 224 24.9 3 3 2 2 CIN Rodney Holman1977 9 220 24.4 3 2 2 2 NOR Henry Childs1961 4 219 54.8 3 3 3 3 SDG Dave Kocourek1968 7 218 31.1 4 2 2 1 BOS Jim Whalen1968 6 212 35.3 3 3 3 3 SDG Jacque MacKinnon1967 10 208 20.8 4 2 1 1 SDG Willie Frazier1979 9 208 23.1 5 2 1 1 CLE Ozzie Newsome2007 9 204 22.7 5 3 1 0 SDG Antonio Gates1973 6 202 33.7 5 5 2 1 NYJ Jerome Barkum1963 3 201 67.0 3 3 2 2 PIT Red Mack2001 8 198 24.8 3 2 2 1 IND Marcus Pollard1993 9 194 21.6 4 3 2 2 DEN Shannon Sharpe1964 8 193 24.1 5 3 0 0 KAN Fred Arbanas1981 8 192 24.0 4 3 1 1 HOU Dave Casper1999 11 189 17.2 2 1 1 1 KAN Tony Gonzalez1980 8 189 23.6 5 3 0 0 NWE Russ Francis1985 7 187 26.7 4 2 2 2 CIN Rodney Holman1984 6 184 30.7 4 3 1 1 NOR Hoby Brenner1968 3 183 61.0 3 3 3 2 CIN Bob Trumpy1967 12 181 15.1 4 1 0 0 WAS Jerry Smith1998 10 178 17.8 4 1 0 0 DEN Shannon Sharpe1972 9 177 19.7 3 1 1 1 SFO Ted Kwalick1975 3 177 59.0 3 3 3 2 KAN Walter White1996 9 176 19.6 3 1 1 1 NWE Ben Coates1962 6 176 29.3 4 3 3 1 HOU Bob McLeod1983 12 172 14.3 3 1 1 0 RAI Todd Christensen1965 5 172 34.4 5 2 1 1 NYG Aaron Thomas2009 10 171 17.1 3 1 1 1 IND Dallas Clark1970 4 171 42.8 3 3 3 1 STL Jackie Smith1973 6 168 28.0 3 2 1 1 PHI Charle Young2004 13 166 12.8 1 1 1 1 SDG Antonio Gates2005 10 166 16.6 3 1 0 0 SDG Antonio Gates2006 9 166 18.4 3 2 1 1 SDG Antonio Gates1970 7 163 23.3 4 2 1 0 OAK Raymond Chester1964 4 163 40.8 3 3 3 1 STL Jackie Smith1979 7 160 22.9 3 1 1 1 TAM Jimmie Giles
Here are the guys to gain over 100 yards on touchdowns over the last 15 years. As you can see, Davis' six touchdowns of 20+ yards far outpaces almost everyone else:

That's pretty interesting stuff, Chase. I wonder how much of that can be attributed to Davis' abnormal speed for the TE positions and how much is just plan luck... or chance if you don't like that term. In reality Davis was the best deep threat on SF last year. He was probably the fastest offensive player they had on the field. Now SF added Ginn who while disappointing thus far should be a very capable guy to stretch the field and provide a deep threat. There is no doubt Ginn is faster and can get behind D's. He's just not been reliable making the plays after that point.

I can't help but remember that Vernon Davis was a workout warrior who the Niners reached for as the #6 overall pick, who many called a bust after his first year.

I seem to recall another workout warrior from Maryland who is considered a workout warrior and people call a bust. I'd like to see him follow Davis's lead. DHB anyone?

Davis: 80/960/11

He finally did it last season. After letting so many people down, he finally did what many thought he'd do a few years earlier. There's no reason why this guy doesn't have another productive season. It looks like on offense you have Gore and Davis over there to get the majority of Td's and you can sprinkle in several to Crabtree.

82 receptions for 900 yards and 9 td's

Vernon Davis is an unbelievable athlete. He has excellent speed and great moves. However, his career catch percentage is just under 60%. I think that he is capable of performing near his 09 production, when he was targeted a career high of 129 times and had 78 catches for 965 yards and an amazing 13 TDs. I just can't get myself convinced to expect that production.

He finished as the TE #1 in 2009 and is being drafted acccordingly at TE#3 and 49 overall. I just don't trust either him or Alex Smith to produce that well. I also look for more targets, especially in the red zone for Michael Crabtree.

I will be waiting till later to take a TE as their are too many options that I expect can produce close enough to the top TEs at a much cheaper price.

Vernon Davis 16 gms 120 targets 70 catches 812 yards 11.6 ypc and 7 TDs.

rzrback77 said:

Vernon Davis is an unbelievable athlete. He has excellent speed and great moves. However, his career catch percentage is just under 60%. I think that he is capable of performing near his 09 production, when he was targeted a career high of 129 times and had 78 catches for 965 yards and an amazing 13 TDs. I just can't get myself convinced to expect that production.He finished as the TE #1 in 2009 and is being drafted acccordingly at TE#3 and 49 overall. I just don't trust either him or Alex Smith to produce that well. I also look for more targets, especially in the red zone for Michael Crabtree.I will be waiting till later to take a TE as their are too many options that I expect can produce close enough to the top TEs at a much cheaper price. Vernon Davis 16 gms 120 targets 70 catches 812 yards 11.6 ypc and 7 TDs.

Click to expand...

I'd like to know how many TEs you feel are going to be getting those numbers this year, or close to them.

massraider said:

rzrback77 said:

Vernon Davis 16 gms 120 targets 70 catches 812 yards 11.6 ypc and 7 TDs.

Click to expand...

I'd like to know how many TEs you feel are going to be getting those numbers this year, or close to them.

Click to expand...

I expect ten to get close and if Owen Daniels is healthy, I would also add him. I am not saying for sure that those eleven will be as productive as Davis, but I expect all of them to catch more than 60 and be close to 700 yards.

I've completely convinced that Vernon Davis has turned the corner, and is just beginning a several year run of being an elite TE. He's my #1 TE in dynasty leagues and redrafts. A lot is being made of the fact that his numbers may have been inflated because of San Fran running a spread offense at times last year, but I think while they may pass less, they will pass more effectively and Davis could become an incredible force on playaction passes. I also think his catch percentage and yards per catch will both increase given a full offseason of working with Alex Smith.

I'll say: 80 catches on 120 targets, for 1,100 yards and 11 TD's.

I think that Vernon Davis is the real deal. But unlike most of the previous posters, I don't think he's going to have the same opportunity to produce the numbers that he did last season. Singletary wanted to run the ball last season, but was unable to and went with the spread offense. To their credit, they put their offensive players in the best position to succeed and Davis was able to produce. But Singletary is a coach who wants to run the football and had a tendency to get very conservative offensively last season when the 49ers had a lead late in games. Crabtree is most likely going to become a bigger part of the passing offense than he was last season and will command his own share of attention as well. There's going to be fewer pass attempts and Crabtree getting more targets than he did last season.

I think all this means that Vernon Davis is going to get fewer targets than he did last season. So, the only way he's going to be as productive as he was last year is to increase his efficiency. As Chase previously pointed out, he had over 250 yards on his 13 TD receptions and those figures are unlikely to be repeated. His catch percentage is also unlikely to increase as last season's catch percentage was closely correlated with his catch percentage before his breakout season last year(slightly over 60%). As a Vernon Davis owner last year, I saw instances of him dropping passes that he probably should have caught. And according to profootballfocus.com, they had Vernon Davis as one of the worst five TEs in Drop % last season. There's no questioning the impact he made last season, but I question whether he can be a more efficient player.

70 catches for 880 yards and 8 TDs.

Seems like his knee injury is going to keep him out the rest of pre season - any reason to drop him down a few spots or change any projections? Just being cautious?

bump