Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants (1 Viewer)

2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants

Player Page Link: Eli Manning Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

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While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

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I see Eli in this range

-319 of 520 for a 61.3% completion percentage

-26 TD's

-13 int's

-12 rushing attempts for 25 yards

-4 lost fumbles

Eli Manning is another steady producer at the QB position. He caught a lot of flak early in his career for a very low completion percentage. His first full year as a starter, he only completed 52.8% of his passes. I think that he had a learning curve not just for the NFL, but for playing in Giants Stadium. His percentages have mostly been steady improvement. In consecutive years, he has posted 57.7%, 56.1%, 60.3%, and finally 61.1% last year. I do not know whether the wind will be similar in the new Meadowlands Stadium, but if it is not as bad as the previous stadium, he could see even a bigger jump.

Eli has also been a steady TD producer, with between 21 and 27 in each of his most recent five years. He had his most yardage as a passer in 09 and some link that to all the injuries at the RB position. Mostly those same folks predict a downturn in 2010 as the Giants return to their roots. I am not sure that is the correct posture. The Giants had a very young WR roster in 09 and all of those guys are more experienced this year. A lot of folks are expecting a nice jump for Hakeen Nicks and some production from Ramses Barden. I look for the offense to remain slightly tilted toward the pass and thus, Eli's numbers to stay elevated above his career averages.

I think that his ADP will slide some from the current level of QB 8 and 71 overall and would be happy to draft him around QB 11 or so.

Eli Manning 16 gms 350 comp 555 attempts 63.1% 4385 yards 7.9 ypa 28 TDs 13 ints 20 rushes 60 yards 1 TD

As I wrote here, with his top targets being players as young as Nicks (22), Manningham (24), Smith (25), along with young guys like Barden/Hixon/Boss, I think people should really step back and stop looking at him as the same old Eli. The Giants in 2010 and 2011 might not bear much of a resemblance to the teams from '06 to '08. It's possible that Jacobs and Bradshaw stay healthy and have big years, but I think New York might become pass happy this year, at least during the first couple of months. Manning's a good guy to target, IMO.

The strength of the Giants team is no longer their defense and running game. If they are going to win a lot of games this year, they will beat teams in the air. Eli Manning had over 4000 passing and his receivers should only be better this year Eli Manning is an excellent choice for a QBBC for owners who like to take QB's later in the draft.

4125 yards, 27 td's and 18 INT's

75 yards, 1 TD rushing

The Giants should have everyone healthy and more experience. If Phillips is limited then Deon Grant is a capable safety, Beatty will compete for a spot on the oline. Brown is back practicing at RB. With the switch back to an attacking style of defense, I think the Defense will bounce back to being a strength, but will be susceptible to big plays during the first 4-6 games as they get used to the scheme. The running game will be better but not a strong as it was in 2007 & 2008. I expect Bradshaw to get most of the reps because Jacobs will either get back to his old running style and miss 4-6 games from injury or he'll continue to try to avoid contact and will ineffective.

The WRs & TEs have more experience and the team is confident they can win by passing. I think Eli is a great QBBC. I predict 4300 yds, 26TD 14 Int, 48 Rush yds, 1 rush TD. I think the team will be in some shootouts in the first half of the season as the defense gets comfortable with the new defensive scheme.

If there is any doubt that this is a passing league, two straight projectionists have listed expected passing totals of over 400 yards for Eli Manning and declared him a good QBBC selection.

rzrback77 said:

If there is any doubt that this is a passing league, two straight projectionists have listed expected passing totals of over 400 yards for Eli Manning and declared him a good QBBC selection.

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Good point.However, I may think that I'm a good projectionist but I'm also a realist. There is a lower percentage in my mind that Eli Manning reaches over 4000 yards than guys like Peyton Manning, Tony Romo, and Drew Brees. I also know where you can draft Eli Manning, which is in the area where you can draft him as a QBBC.I know you're just bringing light to the fact it is a passing league more now than ever but I wanted to clarify my stance on Eli a little more and why I think he's a quality candidate for a QBBC and not just a guy I'd solely rely on for the entire season.

From Tuck's comment today, it looks like the winds at the new stadium are still gonna be strange, he says the field goal flags showed the wind blowing in on both ends.

Is there any way, even in late June, you can tell something about the way the field will play or the wind conditions - about what it is going to be like?

A: You can tell. Sometimes when you look up at the goal post and one goal post is blowing in and the other one was blowing in, too. So the wind is going to play a factor. But we like that. We will be used to it by the time we play in here, so opposing teams are going to have something to deal with - especially come late fall.

http://www.giants.com/news/transcripts/sto...?story_id=44073

I'm bumping Eli, as I'm seeing the top 8 get drafted earlier and earlier. Everyone is talking about how deep the field of quality QBs is this year, and while I agree, they're being drafted at least a round earlier than usual. You used to be able to get the 7th or 8th guy in the 5th or even 6th round...now it's the fourth. That said, I'm beginning to explore the next tier of guys. Eli's prospects intrigue me, especially with an ADP of 75. In a 12-teamer, that's the beginning of the 7th round. Seems like absurd value to me based on how expensive everyone else has become.

-jb- said:

I'm bumping Eli, as I'm seeing the top 8 get drafted earlier and earlier. Everyone is talking about how deep the field of quality QBs is this year, and while I agree, they're being drafted at least a round earlier than usual. You used to be able to get the 7th or 8th guy in the 5th or even 6th round...now it's the fourth. That said, I'm beginning to explore the next tier of guys. Eli's prospects intrigue me, especially with an ADP of 75. In a 12-teamer, that's the beginning of the 7th round. Seems like absurd value to me based on how expensive everyone else has become.

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This thinking has taken off it appears. It's possible that 6 QB's could be gone in my league by the middle of the 2nd round...As for Eli, the major light switch that went on his game in 2009 seemed to be his efficiency. With a career YPA of 6.4 heading into 2009, and a career best of 6.8, Manning blew those figures out of the water with a 7.9 YPA in 2009. The question is 'was this an aberration?'

I'm inclined to think that it's not, and it's not simply related to Manning. The Giants simply have:

1) Never had the type of talent and depth at the WR position they have now.

2) Never had the type of questions with regard to the running game they have now.

...both of the those factors led the the Giants for the first time in a LONG time becoming a more effective passing team. With the WR combination of Smith, Nicks & Manningham along with a solid TE in Boss, Manning now has a multitude of targets he can take advantage of. While Plaxico probably remains the best WR Manning has ever had, he had an overrated and injury prone Shockey and an aging Toomer as his primary targets.

I do think Manning is a great candidate to target in rounds 7-9 has a viable option for a QB1. He won't ever probably be in the conversation as a Round 2-4 drafted QB, but what he is now is an every week option to start at QB and not put you in a hole versus part of a QBBC. Targeting him in this range allows you to take advantage of the early QB run by securing more and better talent at the RB/WR positions.

Prediction: 324 Completions 526 Attempts, 3923 Passing Yards, 26 TD's 16 INT's.

I think Eli is great value this year (atleast he has been up until this probably). I picked him up in a dynasty auction draft recently for $62 or $63 (out of a $1000 cap). To put it in perspective, all the QB's rated above him went for between $80 and $100!

As someone mentioned earlier, he has terrific WR depth as well as solid TE play. Defenses can't key in on just one guy like when he had Plax and I think Eli is maturing and using all the weapons at his disposal (he likes to throw to his RBs more too). And, while he does have a nice stable of RBs at his disposal as well, they are dinged up a good bit forcing him to throw more.

I think he gets a slight bump in his numbers this year. Something like:

63% comp percentage, 3700 - 3800 yds passing, 30 passing TD's, 15 INTs, with about 3 fumbles lost.

I hate his playoff schedule in W14-16. I would be trying to trade him after W5-6 if I draft him.

Guys, the only way that Eli goes over 4000 yds again is if the both starting running backs get hurt like last yr and D stinks up the joint.

Its just really hard to see a QB toss up 4000 in NY

Now I think they will allow Eli to open up more with the new weapons developing... but 4gs is a special season for a NY QB.

3600 yds / 24 TDs / 12 Ints

KellysHeroes said:

Guys, the only way that Eli goes over 4000 yds again is if the both starting running backs get hurt like last yr and D stinks up the joint.Its just really hard to see a QB toss up 4000 in NYNow I think they will allow Eli to open up more with the new weapons developing... but 4gs is a special season for a NY QB.3600 yds / 24 TDs / 12 Ints

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I think you make good points but I do disagree some. The old school thinking of the NYG offense is crumbling as it is for the rest of the NFL. It's turned so much into a passing league that just about every franchise is jumping on board. With the talent that Giants have assembled in the passing game, they'd be foolish to remain tradionalists and force the running game. You can plainly see that they have drafted to break the mold.I really don't see the defense improving by leaps and bounds so it's easy to see them playing plenty of mid to high scoring games. Especially when you see Dallas and Philly twice a year.Eli is a bargain this year and should fly under the radar. If you don't like his playoff schedule, QBBC with someone you do like.

I wonder just how much the Meadowlands contributes to the passing game. For grins, I looked up 4000 yard seasons for the NYG over the past 30 years:

2009 - Manning

2002 - Collins

1999 - Collins

1984 - Simms

I have no idea how that compares to the rest of the league...but wow...

-jb- said:

I wonder just how much the Meadowlands contributes to the passing game. For grins, I looked up 4000 yard seasons for the NYG over the past 30 years:2009 - Manning2002 - Collins1999 - Collins1984 - SimmsI have no idea how that compares to the rest of the league...but wow...

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Nice find. A couple of things. Wind clearly plays a role in this but I think the bigger underlying fact has been the offensive philosophy.As someone else pointed out, Manning's completion % has improved steadily every year and I'm sure a lot of that is learning what throws he can make in those elements and the improvement at the skill positons.I would be surprised actually to not see a back to back 4k here.

-jb- said:

I wonder just how much the Meadowlands contributes to the passing game. For grins, I looked up 4000 yard seasons for the NYG over the past 30 years:2009 - Manning2002 - Collins1999 - Collins1984 - SimmsI have no idea how that compares to the rest of the league...but wow...

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3 in the last 11 years.

I've gone back and forth over targeting Eli later in my draft. The thing that scares me the most about him are his turnovers. In leagues that really penalize ints and fumbles, like mine at -3, not sure if he's gonna be realible enough to trust as a QB1.

ImTheScientist said:

-jb- said:

I wonder just how much the Meadowlands contributes to the passing game. For grins, I looked up 4000 yard seasons for the NYG over the past 30 years:2009 - Manning2002 - Collins1999 - Collins1984 - SimmsI have no idea how that compares to the rest of the league...but wow...

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3 in the last 11 years.

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I just looked up how many times it's been done by a single QB, league-wide, in the last 10 years - 45.BledsoeBrees x4Brady x3BulgerCollinsCulpepperCutlerFavre (MN)Favre (GB) x2GannonGarciaGrbacGreen x3KitnaPalmer x2PlummerEManningPManning x9Rivers x2Rodgers x2RoethlisbergerRomo x2SchaubWarner x2Teams with 2+ seasons = 13Teams with 3+ seasons = 6Teams with 4+ seasons = 4Teams with 5+ seasons = 1

-jb- said:

I just looked up how many times it's been done by a single QB, league-wide, in the last 10 years - 45.

Bledsoe

Brees x4

Brady x3

Bulger

Collins

Culpepper

Cutler

Favre (MN)

Favre (GB) x2

Gannon

Garcia

Grbac

Green x3

Kitna

Palmer x2

Plummer

EManning

PManning x9

Rivers x2

Rodgers x2

Roethlisberger

Romo x2

Schaub

Warner x2

Teams with 2+ seasons = 13

Teams with 3+ seasons = 6

Teams with 4+ seasons = 4

Teams with 5+ seasons = 1

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Unparalleled in his time, and i regret never owning him in any of my leagues. I've only won once in 9 years of FF, and Rivers was my qb.

I think people might be attributing too much to the winds at the Meadowlands as a limiting factor to the Giants passing game. The Giants were pretty bad from when the Super Bowl was created to the mid '80s. Parcell's came and he won with defense and running the ball. Phil Simms was a good, but not great QB and he was hurt alot during his career. Simms and Hostetler had Stephen Baker and Mark Ingram to throw to, they weren't the most talented WRs. Then there was Dave Brown a QB from the supplemental draft and he was terrible. Collins had threw for 4,073 yards in 2002, 3,764 in 2001, 3,610 in 2000. Collins had Toomer, Hilliard and Tiki Barber (Barber was good but his breakout season was 2002). Tiki was the only stud, Toomer had his best years during this time but he couldn't do it alone and wasn't the ideal #1 WR. I'd find it hard to argue that Kurt Warner wasn't the most talented QB the Giants had in the past 25 years and they didn't even know it or give him the chance to show it. I thought Warner was washed up and it seems the Giants did too, he was brought in so they wouldn't have to throw Eli in as the starter on day 1. Tiki Barber was the whole offense, Toomer was on the decline and Burress was still a Steeler. As good as Plaxico was, he didn't maximize his potential with bad work habits and Toomer's best days were behind him.

While the Giants have had better individual players at times, this is in my opinion the best combination of QB and WRs as a whole, that the team has ever had. I don't think it's the wind that has prevented the Giants from being a prolific passing team in the past, it was due to not having enough talent at one time to do so. The Jets too have struggled to get that combination of talented QB and WRs to put up prolific yards.

I'm going to look into how the best passing teams have done at Giants stadium. Do Peyton and Brady struggle there? How about Favre (with GB), Warner, Montana, Young, Marino and Moon did the wind stop them?

that would be interesting netnalp. let us know what you find.

2009

Campbell - 211

Russell - 100

Warner - 231

Rivers - 209

Ryan - 268

Romo - 392

McNabb - 275

Moore - 171

2008

Campbell - 133

Palmer - 286

Hasselbeck - 113

O' Sullivan - 218

Romo - 102

Flacco - 154

McNabb - 191

Delhomme - 185

McNabb - 217

2007

Favre - 285

McNabb - 138

Pennington - 229

Dilfer - 209

Romo - 247

Jackson - 129

Collins - 166

Brady - 356

2006

Manning - 276

Brunell - 109

Gradkowski - 139

Carr - 176

Grossman - 246

Romo - 257

Garcia - 237

Brees - 132

2005

Warner - 264

Bulger - 442

Plummer - 194

Ramsey/Brunell - 127

Johnson - 144

McMahon - 298

Bledsoe - 146

Green - 176

Delhomme - 140

In the past five years (42 games), visiting QBs have thrown for...

...250+ yards 11 times.

...300+ yards 3 times.

...350+ yards 3 times.

...400+ yards 1 time.

Average yards = 208

-jb- said:

In the past five years (42 games), visiting QBs have thrown for......250+ yards 11 times....300+ yards 3 times....350+ yards 3 times....400+ yards 1 time.Average yards = 208

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Good QBs looked like they did well while bad QBs did bad. You also can not attribute passing performance solely to wind conditions but you really have to look at was the giants D good or not? Wind is a secondary factor. A good D will not give up yards regardless of conditions.

In 12 team mocks, I'm seeing Manning fall to the 7th/8th round as QB 10-12. With Nicks/Smith/Manningham at WR and Bradshaw out of the backfield, it seems like Manning has some good weapons. Plus, he just seemed to kind of "get it" at some point last year where he was looking pretty good. I think Manning could outplay guys like Cutler and Ryan who I've seen taken ahead of him a round or two earlier. If Manning puts up QB 6-8 numbers, I think he could be a steal at his ADP.

Then you have Roethlisberger who isn't being drafted until around round 11-13.

I'm thinking draft Manning in the 7th and then Roethlisberger in the 12th. Start Manning the first 5 weeks and then when Roeth comes back, you've got two QB1s that you can play matchups with down the stretch.

If you draft well in rounds 1-6 at WR/RB (and TE if one of the studs falls to you), I think this QB strategy could pay dividends. The FBGs rate my team app writeup off of fantasyfootballcalculator doesn't seem to like it though, so I thought I'd post here to get more feedback.

He's got to do better than last year with these young WR's coming into their own.....330 completions, 525 attempts, 4200 yds, 30 TD's, 15 INT's. I like him this year.

bucsbaby said:

In 12 team mocks, I'm seeing Manning fall to the 7th/8th round as QB 10-12. With Nicks/Smith/Manningham at WR and Bradshaw out of the backfield, it seems like Manning has some good weapons. Plus, he just seemed to kind of "get it" at some point last year where he was looking pretty good. I think Manning could outplay guys like Cutler and Ryan who I've seen taken ahead of him a round or two earlier. If Manning puts up QB 6-8 numbers, I think he could be a steal at his ADP.

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